Editor’s Note: Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli Middle East analyst and the coauthor of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and The State of Iran. He teaches the Contemporary Iranian Politics course at the Interdisciplinary Center, in Herzliya, Israel. 

By Meir Javedanfar - Special to CNN

“Will Israel attack Iran?” That’s the question of the hour. Pundits and policymakers are asking it. But the real existential threat to Iran’s leadership lies elsewhere and the question we should be asking is: “Are the tough economic sanctions against Iran's central bank working?”

To Iran's rulers, regime survival is of utmost importance; there is nothing more important to them - not even the nuclear program. The Iranian regime can live and survive without its nuclear program. But it cannot survive without its economy.

In recent months, the value of the riyal has collapsed, portending greater troubles for Iran’s economy ahead. More and more countries are turning away from Iran to buy oil. This is bad news for the regime, which relies heavily on oil income.

Those countries that continue to import oil from Iran are taking advantage of its diplomatic isolation to squeeze it for all it’s worth. China has halved its monthly oil import from Iran and is demanding discounts on the other half. The Turks are asking Iran to reduce the price it charges for gas and are threatening to take Iran to the International Arbitration Court over this matter. FULL POST

On Fareed Zakaria GPS this Sunday at 10a.m. and 1p.m. on CNN, an important show: Russia’s elections; Syria’s crisis, and the global economy.

First, the case for intervention in Syria: a nuanced debate with Fawaz Gerges, Rami Khoury, and Elliott Abrams. We also have an exclusive sit-down with billionaire investor George Soros, with whom we discuss the fate of the Euro Zone, the U.S. economy’s recent upswing, and politics.

All that, and What in the World – why Mitt Romney should be concerned about the very poor – and so should we all.

Here's an excerpt of Fawaz Gerges arguing against arming the Syrian opposition:

FULL POST

By Tim Lister, CNN

Amid growing outrage over civilian casualties in Syria, there are ever more urgent calls to aid - or at least protect - the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad. There is renewed talk of creating safe havens and humanitarian corridors inside the country. And those demanding tougher measures are again asking why events in Syria should not prompt Libyan-style intervention by NATO and its Arab allies.

In Washington Tuesday, Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, said the United States "should consider all options, including arming the opposition. The blood-letting has got to stop."

So far, the international community's response to the violence in Syria has been limited. There has been diplomatic censure, with envoys withdrawn or "recalled for consultations," and Syrian ambassadors expelled from several Arab states. A growing raft of sanctions is draining the Syrian regime's coffers but only gradually sapping its strength. This is not a country that has relied on international trade for its survival. FULL POST

Editor's Note: Soner Cagaptay is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a GPS contributor. You can find all his blog posts here. The views expressed in this article are solely those of Soner Cagaptay.

By Soner Cagaptay - Special to CNN

The Arab uprisings suggest that recently developed “protest technology,” from cell phone cameras to social media, are changing the way people behave under dictatorships and authoritarian regimes.

Prior to the rise of “protest technology,” individuals had to endure under the tyranny of authoritarian regimes because there were few tools available to organize the masses without evading detection. Quite simply: the average citizen lacked the necessary instruments to outsmart their rulers. Autocratic regimes possessed the capabilities to swiftly crack down on dissidents before their ideas could evolve into a network of mass movement.  FULL POST

In The Wall Street Journal, Fouad Ajami lays out what President Obama should do for Syria in one short paragraph:

"We could, with some moral clarity, recognize the Syrian National Council as the country's legitimate government, impose a no-fly zone in the many besieged areas, help train and equip the Free Syrian Army, prompt Turkey to give greater support to defectors from Syrian units, and rally the wealthy Arab states to finance the effort."

Do you agree? What's your one paragraph solution to the ongoing crisis in Syria?

The following is a transcript of my discussion with Don Lemon about Syria. Does the Free Syrian Army have a chance? Should the U.S. arm the Syrian opposition? What does instability in Syria mean for Iran? Let me know what you think.

Don Lemon: Straight off the top here, does this small rebel force in Syria stand any chance against the powerful Syrian armed forces?

Fareed Zakaria: It doesn't seem that they have much of a chance because the regime has decided to be utterly brutal.

This is a regime that looked at Gadhafi and that looked at Mubarak and said the lesson is don't waver, don't show any weakness and just grind them down. The one problem they face is the regime is not an oil-rich regime - it's not like Saudi Arabia. It can't bribe its people. It doesn't have that kind of ability even to bribe the army.

Eventually, they're going to face real cash shortfalls. And what that means going forward is a really interesting question. This is not a regime that can outlive the sanctions and all this pressure unendingly. They have got one source of cash right now, Iran. And that too is drying up. FULL POST

Editor’s Note: The following piece, exclusive to GPS, comes from Wikistrat, the world's first massively multiplayer online consultancy.  It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts via a crowd-sourcing methodology to provide unique insights.

This Sunday, the historically disorganized Venezuelan opposition movement is holding its first-ever presidential primary to decide upon a single candidate to challenge long-time strongman Hugo Chavez. With regional governor Henrique Capriles expected to prevail, the aging Chavez faces a younger version of himself: namely, a dynamic rising star promising to transform the political landscape. This time, however, the figure is moving it away from the heavy-handed populism initiated by Chavez after he swept into office in 1998.

Over the course of his tenure, Chavez’s pursuit of “21^st century socialism” in Venezuela has propelled him to self-declared “president for life” status. Among his accomplishments are the systematic and brutal persecution of political opponents and critical journalists, the stacking of parliament with his supporters, various cash-payment programs to the voting poor to ensure his popularity, and - in a related dynamic - the general undermining (aka, looting) of the country’s primary economic engine, the national oil company known as PDVSA. Chavez has also turned Venezuela into one of the most crime-ridden nations in the world with the annual inflation averaging close to 30 percent. FULL POST

Editor's Note: Will Marshall is the president and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute. Marshall serves on the board of the National Endowment for Democracy. 

By Will Marshall - Special to CNN

With deadly soccer riots, popular unrest and a tricky political transition to manage, you’d think that Egypt’s military rulers would have enough on their hands without provoking a confrontation with the United States. Evidently not.

Everyone knows the generals call the shots in Egypt, but they profess to be powerless to stop Egypt’s courts for trying 19 Americans on trumped up charges of funneling “foreign funding” to anti-government protestors. This outrage demands a calm but resolute response from President Obama. While avoiding public statements that further inflame Egyptian nationalism, Obama should quietly make it clear to the Supreme Military Council that persisting in this folly will lead to a cut-off of U.S. aid. FULL POST

Editor's note: Fadi Hakura is the associatefFellow and anager of the Turkey Project at the London-based think-tank Chatham House. He has written and lectured extensively on Turkey's political, economic and foreign policy and the relationship between the European Union and Turkey.

By Fadi Hakura - Special to CNN

Syria is heading to an "intolerable situation" according to Turkey's hyperactive Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, whose country is at the forefront of global efforts to engineer the downfall of the Bashar Al-Assad leadership.

Less than two years ago, relations were diametrically different.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan considered Assad a close friend and paraded Syria as the epitome of its much vaunted but now defunct "zero problems with the neighbors" policy to encourage rapprochement with Middle Eastern nations. Trade across their 850-kilometer border blossomed tenfold, security cooperation against the Kurdistan Workers' Party - a militant Kurdish group conducting a violent separatist campaign in Turkey - flourished and mutual visa restrictions were lifted. FULL POST