March 8th, 2011
08:41 AM ET

What's going on in Saif Gadhafi's head? (hint: watch The Godfather)

Editor's Note: Dr. Benjamin Barber is a distinguished Senior Fellow at Dēmos and formerly a board member of the Gadhafi International Charitable and Development Foundation.

By Dr. Benjamin Barber, Special to CNN

With Libya potentially sliding into a violent and costly civil war pitting Benghazi against Tripoli, the role of the elusive Saif Gadhafi becomes evermore relevant.

Among Moammar Gadhafi’s six sons, Saif is unique.  Saif earned a Ph.D. at the London School of Economics and wrote several books on how to adapt Western liberal democracy to the unique conditions of the developing world – especially Libya. Moammar's other sons are faithful clan members; three of them command their own well-armed battalions.

In recent years, Saif established a charitable foundation to press for human rights and liberal reforms in Libya.  I sat on the board of this foundation until two weeks ago, when I and the foundation’s Libyan director resigned in protest of Saif's embrace of his father's regime and his brutal tactics.

For the years I was on its board, the foundation did important work.  As the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote, "For much of the last decade, Gadhafi’s son Saif was the public face of human rights reform in Libya and the Gadhafi Foundation was the country’s only address for complaints about torture, arbitrary detention, and disappearances.”

Saif seemed to support significant reforms.  In his book "Manifesto", which was to have been published by Oxford University Press, he quoted 17th century English rebel John Bradshaw proclaiming "Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God," and then added his own coda:  'I believe it is the duty of the people to rebel against tyranny.'" Saif's “reform face” seemed to have considerable credibility.

Two weeks ago, however, Saif abruptly put on another face. Like "The Godfather’s" Michael Corleone – the World War II war hero and educated civilian who was the "good son" until he turned bad – so Saif had been the "good" Gadhafi until he turned bad last week.

Saif took off his reformer face and let his Libyan clan identity define him. Last week the rebel against tyranny became one with the tyrant and warned of "rivers of blood" and a civil war in Libya. (CNN's Nic Robertson interviews Saif Gadhafi).

There is an element of personal tragedy in Saif's radical turn – a life of commitment to scholarship and reform martyred to a choice for family and clan.

Beyond the personal tragedy, whether Gadhafi hangs on or is deposed, Saif's turn also complicates things for the future.

Will Saif go down with his father? Or will he become a potential force in a transition? Or if Gadhafi holds on, can Saif somehow find a way out of civil war and brutal repression and again become a figure of reconciliation?

For Saif to play a role now or later would require both that Libyans rebelling against the regime somehow re-endow him with a legitimacy his father has completely forfeited, and that the West and the United States forgive him his recent trespasses and position him as a possible transitional figure.

Both of these requirements seem nearly impossible, not just because of the choices Saif has made but because he has become the "intelligent" face of an ugly regime, a kind of propaganda minister for the regime's brutality and repression, a spokesman for the absurd notion that "everything is fine" in Tripoli, and that the uprising is the doing of al Qaeda, drugs or foreign powers.

(This is not to say that al Qaeda, which the Gadhafi regime opposed more vigorously than any other state in the region, may not try to take advantage of a civil war and chaos in the aftermath of the rebellion against Gadhafi).

Bottom line: It is hard to imagine that any Libyan will again trust Saif with any part of their future, let alone a transition to democracy.

On the other hand, if his father holds on, prudent realpolitikers in the State Department or the Pentagon who are trying to avoid a civil war, a U.S. military intervention and a return of al Qaeda to Libya, could be tempted to reach out, if only covertly, to Saif. Again, improbable, but not impossible.

Realpolitik necessarily dominates the United States' responses to the Middle East unrest since, however much President Obama rhetorically welcomes the opening to democracy, in practice he has interests to protect by maintaining reasonable oil prices and supply (crucial to avoiding a second economic turndown), by countering Iranian ambitions and by protecting Israel.

In Cairo, although it is the rebels of Tahrir Square who attract media attention, it is Field Marshall Tantawi and his colleagues on the Supreme Military Council with whom the U.S. Department of Defense and State Department must also talk – knowing they control much of the Egyptian economy and cannot be abandoned if there is to be a stable transition to democracy. Removing a figurehead is one thing. Transforming the regime is another.

In the short run, Saif is now a Libyan "Corleone" and will live or die with the Godfather who is Moammar. He deserves no quarter and will get no quarter from the rebels or the Western Powers.

Yet time and brute realities have a way of changing perspectives, and if Saif is still around a month or three months from now, and Libya is locked in a costly civil war and the unitary state is disintegrating into Eastern and Western provinces, with oil supplies in jeopardy and al Qaeda sniffing around the Sahara again, there could be a "Saif option" – anything but safe – in which the erstwhile human rights supporter is allowed to detach himself from the clan and assume his reformer's face once again.

Yes, this is highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

Topics: Libya • Perspectives

soundoff (68 Responses)
  1. Tony S

    I think that comparison is an absolute insult to the Michael Corleone character

    March 8, 2011 at 11:31 am | Reply
  2. PJ

    I like to refer to Saif as "the fat boy". He has inherited all of his father's pompous ways and manners. The people will elinminate him.

    March 8, 2011 at 11:31 am | Reply
  3. AstroBoy

    A doctorate from LSE is not an easy get.

    March 8, 2011 at 11:38 am | Reply
  4. john

    I am in no way supporting Gadhafis regime but this article is incredibly biased there simply is no other side to this story just what the author thinks..

    "so Saif had been the "good" Gadhafi until he turned bad last week."

    "He deserves no quarter and will get no quarter from the rebels or the Western Powers."

    March 8, 2011 at 11:47 am | Reply
    • john

      also a very poorly written article in general, name misspellings, didn't even bother to find out facts before writing an article

      March 8, 2011 at 11:52 am | Reply
  5. Enrique Villamor

    Saif Gadhaffi, as the fictional character of Michael Corleone, has never been interested in nothing but himself and being in a position of power. This guy is and has always being a wolf trying to wear some sheep's skin.

    Now that his position is being threatened, he is truly showing his colours.

    For Mr. Barber to mention that Saif might be a force on the transition of Lybia to democracy is either naive or complete ignorance, which is really worrisome coming from an expert on the country.

    March 8, 2011 at 11:56 am | Reply
  6. West Valley Dave

    The article is wrong. This sand farmer will end up like Sonny Corleone.

    March 8, 2011 at 11:58 am | Reply
  7. Jonathan

    What a waste of good schooling. Just goes to show no matter how educated someone is.... any way I agree with a lot of the comments on here. The whole family just needs to go, away.

    March 8, 2011 at 11:59 am | Reply
  8. Saifs-a-poser

    This is an insult the to movie, the characters in the movie, and the actors who portrayed the characters. He's the Justin Bieber of the wanna be a dictator genre. Alot of noise without a whole lot of talent.

    March 8, 2011 at 2:15 pm | Reply
  9. Jovani

    Saif is a spoiled Daddy's boy and will be nothing.

    March 8, 2011 at 3:24 pm | Reply
  10. parvaz

    it seems writer of this article whom i believe got hundreds of thousands of dollars from Qaddafi family ,have a dream to get Saif and his father back in a strong position so that he joining them to have more money
    shame on you damn guy
    Parviz a Persian.Iran .Loristan

    March 8, 2011 at 6:06 pm | Reply
  11. Sara

    He was draped in diamonds as a Gadhafi, and when the time comes, he will hang like one too.

    March 8, 2011 at 8:01 pm | Reply
  12. Farshad

    Ghadafi son is more like Pablo Escobar son when he was 18 years old
    wait until he grows up!

    March 8, 2011 at 10:08 pm | Reply
  13. Farshad

    i was just watching Ghadafi talking to young adults and how similar he sounds to leaders of Iran
    they studied at the same school
    School of Terrorism !!

    March 8, 2011 at 10:13 pm | Reply
  14. David King

    Protesters, if you want Obama's change & America's freedoms sing 'OBAMA FOR THE WORLD'!

    Obama is a light, Obama is so right, For America, For The World!

    http://itunes.apple.com/us/album/obama-for-the-world/id382415281?uo=4

    March 9, 2011 at 12:04 am | Reply
  15. tcaudilllg

    I actually see Saif as more of a Darth Vader figure, a staunch defender of order who become uncompromising when it is threatened. Particularly when his own welfare is directly attached to it.

    Saif seems to be a rather intelligent fellow who is probably contributing more to the campaign than is believed. Moammarr looks the part of the uniter who keeps the regime together psychologically, but his military skills probably pale in comparison to Saif, who is much more logical, I think.

    March 9, 2011 at 1:48 pm | Reply
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