Editor's Note: Dr. Benjamin Barber is a distinguished Senior Fellow at Dēmos and formerly a board member of the Gadhafi International Charitable and Development Foundation.
By Dr. Benjamin Barber, Special to CNN
With Libya potentially sliding into a violent and costly civil war pitting Benghazi against Tripoli, the role of the elusive Saif Gadhafi becomes evermore relevant.
Among Moammar Gadhafi’s six sons, Saif is unique. Saif earned a Ph.D. at the London School of Economics and wrote several books on how to adapt Western liberal democracy to the unique conditions of the developing world – especially Libya. Moammar's other sons are faithful clan members; three of them command their own well-armed battalions.
In recent years, Saif established a charitable foundation to press for human rights and liberal reforms in Libya. I sat on the board of this foundation until two weeks ago, when I and the foundation’s Libyan director resigned in protest of Saif's embrace of his father's regime and his brutal tactics.
For the years I was on its board, the foundation did important work. As the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote, "For much of the last decade, Gadhafi’s son Saif was the public face of human rights reform in Libya and the Gadhafi Foundation was the country’s only address for complaints about torture, arbitrary detention, and disappearances.”
Saif seemed to support significant reforms. In his book "Manifesto", which was to have been published by Oxford University Press, he quoted 17th century English rebel John Bradshaw proclaiming "Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God," and then added his own coda: 'I believe it is the duty of the people to rebel against tyranny.'" Saif's “reform face” seemed to have considerable credibility.
Two weeks ago, however, Saif abruptly put on another face. Like "The Godfather’s" Michael Corleone – the World War II war hero and educated civilian who was the "good son" until he turned bad – so Saif had been the "good" Gadhafi until he turned bad last week.
Saif took off his reformer face and let his Libyan clan identity define him. Last week the rebel against tyranny became one with the tyrant and warned of "rivers of blood" and a civil war in Libya. (CNN's Nic Robertson interviews Saif Gadhafi).
There is an element of personal tragedy in Saif's radical turn – a life of commitment to scholarship and reform martyred to a choice for family and clan.
Beyond the personal tragedy, whether Gadhafi hangs on or is deposed, Saif's turn also complicates things for the future.
Will Saif go down with his father? Or will he become a potential force in a transition? Or if Gadhafi holds on, can Saif somehow find a way out of civil war and brutal repression and again become a figure of reconciliation?
For Saif to play a role now or later would require both that Libyans rebelling against the regime somehow re-endow him with a legitimacy his father has completely forfeited, and that the West and the United States forgive him his recent trespasses and position him as a possible transitional figure.
Both of these requirements seem nearly impossible, not just because of the choices Saif has made but because he has become the "intelligent" face of an ugly regime, a kind of propaganda minister for the regime's brutality and repression, a spokesman for the absurd notion that "everything is fine" in Tripoli, and that the uprising is the doing of al Qaeda, drugs or foreign powers.
(This is not to say that al Qaeda, which the Gadhafi regime opposed more vigorously than any other state in the region, may not try to take advantage of a civil war and chaos in the aftermath of the rebellion against Gadhafi).
Bottom line: It is hard to imagine that any Libyan will again trust Saif with any part of their future, let alone a transition to democracy.
On the other hand, if his father holds on, prudent realpolitikers in the State Department or the Pentagon who are trying to avoid a civil war, a U.S. military intervention and a return of al Qaeda to Libya, could be tempted to reach out, if only covertly, to Saif. Again, improbable, but not impossible.
Realpolitik necessarily dominates the United States' responses to the Middle East unrest since, however much President Obama rhetorically welcomes the opening to democracy, in practice he has interests to protect by maintaining reasonable oil prices and supply (crucial to avoiding a second economic turndown), by countering Iranian ambitions and by protecting Israel.
In Cairo, although it is the rebels of Tahrir Square who attract media attention, it is Field Marshall Tantawi and his colleagues on the Supreme Military Council with whom the U.S. Department of Defense and State Department must also talk – knowing they control much of the Egyptian economy and cannot be abandoned if there is to be a stable transition to democracy. Removing a figurehead is one thing. Transforming the regime is another.
In the short run, Saif is now a Libyan "Corleone" and will live or die with the Godfather who is Moammar. He deserves no quarter and will get no quarter from the rebels or the Western Powers.
Yet time and brute realities have a way of changing perspectives, and if Saif is still around a month or three months from now, and Libya is locked in a costly civil war and the unitary state is disintegrating into Eastern and Western provinces, with oil supplies in jeopardy and al Qaeda sniffing around the Sahara again, there could be a "Saif option" – anything but safe – in which the erstwhile human rights supporter is allowed to detach himself from the clan and assume his reformer's face once again.
Yes, this is highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Michael Corleone was a WW II hero, not WW I.
The article correctly states that Michael Corleone was a WW II hero.
World war II hero is correct!
Idiots. Michael Corelone was a FICTIONAL character.
@MattinDC
A WW II hero fictional character.
Get it right.
It was corrected after I posted my comment.
I have to agree with the article that Saif does not have that radical, screaming Hitler appearance that turns most Westerns off to Radical Muslims. But, unfortunately, the words coming out of his mouth are coming from a regime he supports. Whether he believes those words or not is the question. I have no doubt that Godfather Gadhafi would not hesitate to execute his own son for not following orders. Saif is like American, between a rock and a hard place.
The article says ww11
The Allahfather
Please remember that all the leaders in the regions are following developments in Lybia very closely and it is a big mistake for us to start pondering options like Saif just because Gadhafi's regime did not fall as quickly as some expected. With every step that softens the Western position on the survival of Gadhafi's regime, we directly encourage the next Mideastern dictator to use as much force as possible when it's their turn
One can see by Saif's eyes he is not buying into any of this but his destiny is set, his time is marked, along with the rest of his family and regime. Who could ever trust him again? The best he can hope for now is to fade away somewhere and write books about his experience and theories. That is if he lives to tell the tale. A few strategically placed bombs can take out the entire family.
Could folks out there please learn how to spell "Libya" correctly? I am seeing "Lybia" a bit too frequently.
Personally, I think he is alot more like ABDULLAH THE BUTCHER, except for the fact that he will never get into the WWF Hall of FAme.
Actually, I think he's more like Fredo.
Nice one...wonder if he'll end up running some "mickey mouse" club or go pick someone up at the airport
I can see how it would be hard to turn your back on your entire family. He has brothers in the government and his father.
I think his pro-democracy stance is his true face since he naturally went in that direction before.
2 words "KILL THEM"
No, he's just a crazy, megalomaniacal douchebag who is good at acting like he's down to earth. I guess in that way, he is just like Michael Corleone.
He seems to be missing something. He's not wearing a gaudy-flowery dress.
Saif has a "life of commitment to scholarship"? How can anyone say this with a straight face? He plagiarized his doctoral dissertation: saifalislamgaddafithesis.wikia.com/wiki/Plagiarism
It's just a matter of time before he, his father, and the rest of the Ka-Daffy family are slaughtered by an irate, unstoppable opposition. The winds of change are blowing strong in the Arab world.
Ahm-a-nut-job will be next.
The Revolution Committee has offered to Lybia's Leader a Peace exit lately ... that they'll let him go and of what I read no criminal charges would be laid. This would permit to save many, many lives and to stop the bloodshed in that country and for a new Gouvernment to take over for the People. I don't know if in the coming days or weeks??? this offer will still stand or was rejected by Lybia 's Leader, but I beleive that if it is the case he should take it . This would solve that crisis getting deeper and deeper and bringing great sufferings on the People of what the Committee said that they will fight till death to oust him and his Regime out and he could face or probabily will have to face the Justice of the People...But Greed and thirst of Power have brought down so many in History and the lesson was never learned...What will happen...only tine will tell...Sure hope that stability will be back in this country...Thank you
History does not matter to those clinging to power. They will always try to hold on until it is too late. Rarely do they leave willingly and go about the rest of their life. He will fight and hold on to power with the delusional idea that the people love him and eventually they will rise up to support him. Not until he is publicly executed like King Louis XVI.
It amazes me how easily people jump...sure they need reforms in Libya...hell we need them in the US too. Change in these countries Cannot happen overnight and Saif was working for change within a tribal system that has one foot in the past and one in the now. People in Libya revolt for what...what will they gain...NOTHING...except dead relatives and generations of grief.
Michael Corleone was not a good son turned bad. He was a son who, during good times, had the luxury of being able to see things in black and white but later found out that everything was very complicated and that the only choices were between bad and worse. The Libyan situation is not the Egyptian situation. The road for both sides is a bloody one and the losing clans will certainly face a terrible wrath at the hands of the victors. What would you do as a champion of peace and reform when given two choices, neither of which are peaceful? You would do what Michael Corleone did, side with the family, and hope that someone prays for your poor soul.
Typo – Michael was a WWII vet
Thats what the article says genius.
The article was edited to WWII after the comments were made, genius.
Saif's true colors are his true colors. When his empire was threatened his favorite color became RED! Just like his father. His idea of human rights does not include freedom from his clan's tyranny! War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity will be a fitting end to this entire family!
It seems like his scholarly and intellectual side-trip has been cut short when his family's foundation was shaken. It is no surprise that when the &*^% hit the fan he reverted to his roots, following in his father's footsteps.
In simple: He is a cocky person.
He thinks he can get anything he want with money. In fact he did buy some of the West with his money for a bit, but the true him has surfaced at first encounter of reality. He bought "PhD", PAN AM, and few other meaningless things for the ordinary Libyan person.
I've seen articles joking of the many spellings of "Gadhafi", but this article takes the cake. There are THREE different spellings in this one small article alone! Gadhafi in the title and elsewhere; Ghadafi in the editor's note; and Qadafi in the fourth paragraph. Jeannie Moose/Mousse/Mouse needs to get to the bottom of this Kadaffy situation!
He reminds me of Bagdad BoB.
He is sooo Handsome..!
low life
goodness me, here we are talking about the situation in Libya and all you can do is to gush about Saif being 'sooo handsome'?
What would one expect the people in the right-wing news media to say? Of course they're going to villify him as Mohammar's son. They want the so-called "rebels" to win the civil war and then install a pro-Western stooge in Tripoli.
What american wouldn't want a pro-western leader in Libya?
One who's not a right-wing fanatic. Remember Hosni Mubarak of Egypt,or better yet, the Shah of Iran??? Anyone with half a brain knows how horrific he was!
the Boys are on the Choppen Block its just a matter of TIME.....
No, he doesn't look anything like Al Pacino.
Is it just me or is Saif kind of hot? I mean in a sexy, "if he posed nude I'd buy the magazine" kind of way? Too bad the beauty seems only skin deep.
It's just you.
So, if he wants to sit down with us over a nice Italian dinner to negotiate something, we know not to let him go to the bathroom by himself...
How about that- Gaddafi son's LSE thesis 'written by Libyan academic' http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/gaddafi-sons-lse-thesis-written-by-libyan-academic-2233667.html
How can you post an article praising someone so disgusting, with such disrespect for human life? Didn't you listen to the speech he gave recently, basically proving that whatever "he" wrote in his thesis, or should I say, whatever was written in his thesis is very far from what he really believes in?
In their culture, family ties and tribal ties are all important. While Saif put up a lifelong front of fighting for human rights, in the end family and tribe won over. I suspect the Libyan population will never trust a Ghadfi again. The entire family will be lucky to escape with their lives.
At least he is off to a good start at being a "wiseguy", he has the must-have wiseguy pinkie ring already!
I think that comparison is an absolute insult to the Michael Corleone character
I like to refer to Saif as "the fat boy". He has inherited all of his father's pompous ways and manners. The people will elinminate him.
A doctorate from LSE is not an easy get.
I am in no way supporting Gadhafis regime but this article is incredibly biased there simply is no other side to this story just what the author thinks..
"so Saif had been the "good" Gadhafi until he turned bad last week."
"He deserves no quarter and will get no quarter from the rebels or the Western Powers."
also a very poorly written article in general, name misspellings, didn't even bother to find out facts before writing an article
Saif Gadhaffi, as the fictional character of Michael Corleone, has never been interested in nothing but himself and being in a position of power. This guy is and has always being a wolf trying to wear some sheep's skin.
Now that his position is being threatened, he is truly showing his colours.
For Mr. Barber to mention that Saif might be a force on the transition of Lybia to democracy is either naive or complete ignorance, which is really worrisome coming from an expert on the country.
The article is wrong. This sand farmer will end up like Sonny Corleone.
What a waste of good schooling. Just goes to show no matter how educated someone is.... any way I agree with a lot of the comments on here. The whole family just needs to go, away.
This is an insult the to movie, the characters in the movie, and the actors who portrayed the characters. He's the Justin Bieber of the wanna be a dictator genre. Alot of noise without a whole lot of talent.
Saif is a spoiled Daddy's boy and will be nothing.
it seems writer of this article whom i believe got hundreds of thousands of dollars from Qaddafi family ,have a dream to get Saif and his father back in a strong position so that he joining them to have more money
shame on you damn guy
Parviz a Persian.Iran .Loristan
He was draped in diamonds as a Gadhafi, and when the time comes, he will hang like one too.
Ghadafi son is more like Pablo Escobar son when he was 18 years old
wait until he grows up!
i was just watching Ghadafi talking to young adults and how similar he sounds to leaders of Iran
they studied at the same school
School of Terrorism !!
Protesters, if you want Obama's change & America's freedoms sing 'OBAMA FOR THE WORLD'!
Obama is a light, Obama is so right, For America, For The World!
http://itunes.apple.com/us/album/obama-for-the-world/id382415281?uo=4
I actually see Saif as more of a Darth Vader figure, a staunch defender of order who become uncompromising when it is threatened. Particularly when his own welfare is directly attached to it.
Saif seems to be a rather intelligent fellow who is probably contributing more to the campaign than is believed. Moammarr looks the part of the uniter who keeps the regime together psychologically, but his military skills probably pale in comparison to Saif, who is much more logical, I think.