Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria. He is the cofounder and former editor-in-chief of Syria Today, Syria's first private-sector English-language magazine, and has been a media consultant for Syrian nongovernmental organizations under the patronage of Syrian first lady Asma al-Assad. I talked with him shortly after President Bashar al-Assad’s speech to the Syrian people. Here’s what Tabler had to say about it:
Bashar al-Assad’s speech was a major disappointment. The President made no specific announcements. He did not repeal the emergency law or reform electoral laws.
“A few days ago Bouthaina Shaaban, political advisor to President Bashar al-Assad, told us that the emergency law, which allows the government to arrest and detain people without charge indefinitely, would be lifted in Syria…. So we’ve been waiting for over a week. Then the speech comes out and nothing. Absolutely nothing on reform. They appear to still be thinking about it.”
Instead, President al-Assad drummed up conspiracy charges involving Israel and the United States.
“Bashar al-Assad began the first half of his speech talking about conspiracies against the Syrian nation. He mentioned Israel a number of times. He also mentioned the United States. This is standard Bashar al-Assad. He consolidated his regime after the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel around the concept of resistance. He is very clearly using the same formula. It’s very clear that he sees his legitimacy based on resisting Israel and the United States - these outside conspirators.”
This will not placate the protesters. The protesters undoubtedly noticed that al-Assad threatened violence against them.
“I can't imagine this would placate the protesters. And the way al-Assad framed the entire speech was threatening. He suggested that anybody who was out in the street is working with Israel and the United States and against the Syrian nation. I think that’s a threat. The question now is: Has he frightened people so much they will stay home?"
The United States is now at a crossroads in terms of its policy toward Syria.
“The United States is at a crossroads with our own policies because we are dealing with someone who is clearly out of it and who can't give a straight answer. U.S. priorities with Syria are to break the resistance axis between Iran and Hezbollah. Up until now, U.S. policymakers have thought that the only way to do that is to get a peace treaty between Israel and Syria. That would then break this axis.
"The problem with that approach is now evident in the speech al-Assad just gave. He relies so much on conflict with Israel and the U.S. – on seeing so many conspiracies. How could he ever sign a peace treaty with Israel and stay in power?"
A Sunni government in Syria could break the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis.
"Another way to break the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis is for a Sunni government, a majority government, to come to power in Syria. But for that to happen I think it would need to be very bloody. The minority networks that are around the Assad regime overlap closely with the military and the security services. It would be very difficult for the military to break away as an independent party like it did in Egypt and Tunisia and oust the ruling family. Many of the Alawites in these military and security networks believe that if the regime falls, they would be slaughtered by the Sunni majority in revenge."
Tomorrow and Friday could be very bloody.
"Now if the protestors come out tomorrow again, which I think that they probably will, I think there could be a lot of bloodshed…. The anti-regime protests will continue outside of Damascus and in Daraa and the government will send troops in. They’ve already sent the army into Daraa and to Latakia. But in Damascus I think you can expect there to be pro-regime marches. If protests arise from Friday prayers…you can bet that the regime is really going to be cracking down."
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Hasn't recent events given Saudi Arabia far greater leverage with Syria? Give that Syria is overwhelming Sunni, it seems like the Saudis have the ability to influence events, and particularly the Sunnis "street" in Syria, regarding the survival of the Assad regime. As it is well known how much the Saudi's loathe Iran and fear Iran's power grab in the Gulf and elsewhere, couldn't the Saudis let Assad know that they will encourage a Sunni revolt in Syria unless Syria immediately dumps Iran as an ally?
The Saudi "Royal" Family (a gang of thugs as they are) should all stand trial and be hung or beheaded on "Free" Arabian TV.
Sunni is just a branch of Islam, like Catholic is in Christianity its not a tribal thing or something to bind them together. Sunni's kill and oppose other Sunni's.The same can be said about Shia kill and oppose other Shia like Catholic's kill and oppose other Catholic's or Protestants to Protestants. Remember WWII? Germany a Protestant country fought Britain another protestant country and Germany was allied with italy a Catholic country and Britian with France another Catholic country. Stop lumping Sunni with Sunni because you don't know what you are talking about. "Bad" governments lead with oppression while "good" govenments lead by exploitation – that is the reality. Countries allign for puropese of self interest not because the folks over there have the same what ever as me but strictly what that country can do for them.
Thank you for adding some clarity and sanity to the discussion. Assuming that all Sunnis are the same and are willing to fight all Shias is absurd as any other generalization: Protestant / Catholic, white / black, rich / poor, north / south, etc.
Syria is indeed majority Sunni but the Bashir family is NOT Sunni. They are Alawites, an ethno-religious group widely considered heretical by most Muslims particularly in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Protests seen in Saudi Arabia were primarily in the east among Shi'ite minorities and hardly a decent reflection of the vox populi. At the present time, the House of Saud is in no danger.
With all due respect, I strongly disagree with Mr. Tabler's point of view on the situation. Not only Bashar al Assad didn't put all protestors in the same "pro-Israel" basket, he also emphasized on the fact that "not everyone who went on the streets are part of the conspirancy", that some of them were asking for LEGITIMATE reforms. In addition, he clearly said in his speech that conspirancy is one of the reason to whats happening in Syria, but not the only reason. He admits the urgent need of reforms.
People in Syria don't want peace with Israel, regardless if the government is Sunni or Alawite.
It is a shame that the governments in Middle East continue to hold their citizens hostage thru tyranny ruling in this 21st century. It's time for a change.
Then why don't YOU personally go to the meddle east at your own exspense, and kill for "change" You can come back when the mid east is safe...AKA when the oil runs out.
It's up to those people Mr. King, not Peter. BTW- the US get's most of it's oil from Canada and South America.
South American Oil – The very reason we need to topple Chavez's government and seize his (illegally) nationalized oil industry. Cheap oil for us, to hell with the locals.
what do you know about the middle east except what you hear in new the jewish controlled media ??? do you think the US is perfect? do you think people are happy living here? do you think just because one can say or do whatever they want in the street without having any respect or morals for others thats called democracy and freedom?? you and people like you and most people in the west do not understand and never will understand the middle eastern people and we do not want your freedom and democracy in our countries. why does not the US say or do anything in Saudi Arabia which is one of the most dictatorship governments in the world? when they do that then maybe people believe you but since the beginning of time The US has been nothing but a two face hypocrite of a country. whenever and wherever it is in their own interest thats when they get involved, why dont you get involve in Yemen or Bahrain or Ivory cost or Saudi Arabia? US is like a RAT they like to take things that are not theirs and go wherever is best for them.
Isn't that what any country with power does. Britain for the better part of three hundred years, Russia, Germany, France under Napoleon, Japan they all went where they pleased. You mean to tell me that if the countries in the Middle East were in th same position they wouldn't toss their weight around. You act like it is only the U.S. that does it.
And the Middle East don't do that?
Your entire argument hinges on a false premise. That we in "free" democratic countries are not being controlled and some how we are free because we elect our leaders. Wrong I didn't elect the CEO of GM or ATT&T or any of the guys that control the country. I disagree with the viewpoint of 60% of what Congress is doing and half of what the president is doing. The country isn't doing what I would like it to be concentrating on at any level International, federal, State or local – hell I have no say even in a school board meeting. You are duped so badly by all these TV ads and BS new channels and 15 second sound bytes. We have represenitive government but we don't hold them to advance our interrests instead we alow them to help a bunch of multinational entities to our resources and money while they bleed us dry and reduce us to serfs only to bail out on us for brighter markets. Our government is working for the betterment of a few indivisuals while an "UNFREE" government in China is hell bent on building properity for all its people – you think about that.
You should say the same thing to the Communist thug in Vietnam.
Interestingly enough a lot of minorities support al Assad not only the Alawites, virtually all of Syrias Christian community which is quite a sizable community. The idea of democracy is great, I hope the Arabs can achieve it. But I would not side with groups that want to found Islamic states and do not believe in secularism. Its really hard for an Arab Christian lets say, to trust groups that have clear Islamic theocratic aspirations. The Christians of Iraq have suffered terribly and have been butchered by death squads and radical Muslims. I hope Syria does not fall prey to this sort of idiocy.
Well that is not exactly true, most of the supporters that you see in the streets are the same kind than Pro-Ghaddafi's ones. Here many of them are public servants that are "highly" encouraged to show the support to the President, some of them belongs to the Al-Assad mob and at the Baath party. Very disappointed that Bashar Al-Assad did not get it and jeopardize his future as he is already poinpointed by Western countries as Iran's regional support and "officially" involved in Hariri's murder.
"Is violence imminent in Syria?" It's imminent and inevitable wherever you find people who follow Islam or of Color. Anyone denying in is worse than an ostrich with your head up your aszzz instead of buried in the sand. Violence is a genetic disposition with these people, always has been and always will be. Wake up America, we're next on the collapse list when the animals run the zoo.
Right.... because we all know that those not of color are never violent, never fight wars with each other, that no violence is ever perpetrated by any other religion than Islam, no ...Christianity never attacked anyone who didn't believe in what they do...Spanish Inquisition anyone?
Oh Nick
you are a moron and clueless
any society is susceptible for violence .
What have you been smoking NICK?
The energy levels on earth are rising at a rapid pace,it shows in peoples emotions.One common theme is" we are not afraid anymore." This is not the first uprising nor will it be the last.
The speech of Bashar Alassad today was a real disappointment for all Syrians. He didn't show any respect for the hundreds of syrians killed in his country. His frequent laughs reminds of Qadafi's hallucination pills.
LIKE FATHER LIKE SON!!! any question?
Blame who ever you want Mr. Bashar but facts remains facts, You are surrounded by corrupted criminal family. Let Harrire lay in peace now his killer will get what they deserve. ( any one answer me if Israed to blame for all the killing in Lebanon why the syrian never investigated any of the crimes and never tried to got the israeli criminal they are talking about.
Bashar Al Assad is just blaming Israel to justify killing his people, The whole whole story is he built an empire, castles and money, helps who is belong to his family, and other merchants to build their fortunes,. there is no Law, Justice or rationale.
That is the story, it is not about religion, or groups, is the government which rules with imprisoning the innocents, and torturing in every possible way, Accept me or DIE!!
I'd be a lot more concerned about IRAN toiling to achieve nuclear Armageddon,
than any of the other current unrest in the Middle East.
Bah..... watch "How I Learned to Love the Bomb."..... nobody has the cojones to actually press the inevitable nuclear button.... its the nature of the global economy.
Hang in there my brother! Use your planes to bomb before the do-gooders yell no-fly zone!
muslims are thugs
Stop your own BS would you, "stop the bs"?
the fundamentalist only.
let the killers in the world do what they do best......it happens in the US all the time...children here die everyday...why let another soldier support the irrational....you cannot fix crazy....if you can please let me know what crazy people have been cured let me know...
Where is the UN? Such a sad organization that selectively rounds up the UN seciurity council at a moment's notice to condemn Israel for defending itself against rocket attacks, and legitimate actions by Israel under international law, while when Arab countries slaughter their own citizens – it sits quietly – affraid to act, unable to act, unable to do much of anything.
Unlike the uprising in North Africa, where religion was not the issue of political turbulences, the Sunni-Shiite Divide in the Middle East is being accentuated during the political unrest in the region. We have the Shiite populace and the Sunni ruling minority in Baharain. The other way round we have Sunni populace and Shia Alawite minority in the government in Syria. As long as the Sunni-Shiite Divide is not sought out by the people there, there will always be conflict. The rulers see no other alternative other than ruling with iron fist, in order to keep their countries together.
CNN has news blackout from Bahrain and (Estate of Saudi) Arabia. Every thing must be OK there. It is patriotic duty of CNN to highlight and stay focused on unrest in Syria as per wish of US state dept.
I think the REAL and MORE IMPORTANT question for CNN to ask today: Is Violence Imminent in the United Sports?
If violence is need to overthrow this dictator, so be it. Syria has been a source of terrorist and violence for years. Maybe an overthrow will result in a peaceful Syria. Almost anything will be an improvement.
Well, this kind of speech is totally familiar for Iranian people. Conspiracy, the common word Assad and Khamenei use to hide their dictatorships.
Assad ruined himself so did Khamenei, his peer in Iran.
What Syrian people has to do: Protest
What Iranians have to do: Protest
REAL peace in the Middle east = Free & Democrat Governments in Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Lebonan (without Hezbullah), Palestine.
Violence is imminent for sure! As we speak Obomber is ordering more cruise missiles and were eyeing the middle east but remember his solemn pledge NO BOOTS ON THE GROUND,we will see how long it takes for this to be the usual lie!
"Is violence imminent in Syria?" Imminent? Why not ask if the sun lights half of the Earth at a time?
Do you know anything about Bashar al-Assad or his father, Hafez al-Assad?
Hama Rules ....
Not much has changed ....
Keep watching and learn.
The Syrian president is just another one of those incompetent leaders, selfish 3rd World tyrants and first-class low-life murderers, just like Saddam and Gadahfi – and he is soon to be hanged like Saddam was and like Gadahfi will be.
Jack,
I couldn't said it better!
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