A number of you have been asking me on Facebook, Twitter and iReport about my predictions for the Middle East ten years down the line.
I think we’re seeing the beginning of fundamental change in the Middle East. This is the region's 1989. The big caveat, however, is that the Middle East is not Eastern Europe. So change will not happen on the scale or with the speed and scope that it happened in Europe.
There are going to be much slower transitions. The line forward is going to be much more meandering. Not all countries will be affected.
The key places to focus on are the non-oil-producing countries like Egypt, Tunisia and, to a certain extent, Jordan and Morocco. Those are the places where there is significant pressure for economic and political reform. There you can't buy off the population easily, which is the typical strategy of the rich oil states.
The Middle East governments have used two methods of control - mass repression and mass bribery. The oil-rich countries use mass bribery. Countries like Syria use mass repression.
I tend to think that the bribery will work better than repression. At the end of the day, Syria is going to have difficulty even though it will probably engage in a pretty brutal crackdown.
Years from now my prediction to you is that all those non-oil-producing states will look significantly different from the way they look now.
I think with the oil-producing states, change will be more evolutionary. Eventually there will be kinder, gentler monarchies that spread the wealth around more.
The really crucial country is going to be Saudi Arabia. I think Saudi Arabia will make it through this period without massive change. It will be evolutionary change and not revolutionary change.
If I’m wrong about that then all bets are off because Saudi Arabia is the 800-pound gorilla.
In terms of Egypt: I think it will look like Indonesia today.
Ten years ago most people thought Indonesia wouldn't even exist as a country after (President) Suharto fell. People thought that Indonesia was not even a real country - the Dutch had just colonized these 400 different islands. It was poor. It had the dangers of Islamic fundamentalism, extremism and jihadi groups.
But the democratic political system stabilized the country. It provided vents and escape valves for some of these tensions.
There were hiccups along the way. Indonesia is still a pretty complicated place with a lot of corruption, dysfunction and some problems of Islamic extremism. But, by and large, it has been a stable democratic country with economic reform.
I think that’s not a bad model for Egypt and I think if Egypt could get there - which is quite possible - it would be amazing progress for the country. It would be more progress in 10 years than they’ve made in 40 years.
Those are my thoughts. I'd love for you to continue the conversation below, and to follow me on Facebook and Twitter. As always, you can send me video questions through iReport.
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I liked!
I liked it too, but Mr. Fareed forgot to mention one small country, the elephant in the room – Israel – which most likely will have a great participation, directly or indirectly, in shaping the Middle East.
Elephant !! I wonder how Israel will be after bashar el assad falls ?? That will be a major turning point in the history of the region. The clock is ticking and I am 100 percent sure that the goverment of Israel is crunching the numbers to figure out a solution for this problem
))
the elephant in the room -isreal- will most likely suffer from the greatest crisis-holocost- in it's current history. G luck. ( :
israil has nothing to do with these its not a middle east its arab reveloution
and egypt in 2030 is estamaited to be the 19th on the world it will be much better then indonissia
I fully agree with your comment ! And it will be even more important to see how the US foreign policy shapes towards Israel on issues like the Golan or colonization in the West Bank. There are two things I found insufficiently were addressed in Mr. Zakaria's article. First, the relationship between ethics, religion and legal tradition is too important to be discarded. One cannot speak of occidental type democracies if the ground is not prepared in advance. Arabic countries rely for instance on the system of confessional fragmentation which is unknown to most Western countries and, from a political persepctive, is egalitarian but difficult to put into place as witnessed in Lebanon. The second big shortcoming in my view is that the author underestimated the geopolitical, historical, strategic importance of Syria for the next decades as well as its valid example of peaceful coexistence between religions.
Very true MapleSyrup. The author seems to be oblivient to the weight of Syria and the outcomes of toppling a guy like el Assad. I am still quite surprised by the superficial nature of this article. I think Fareed Zakharia is not in shape today
Hey guys
I actually think Israel is going to be the least effected country in the region.
For starters Israel is an extremely strong, smart, and agile nation. And they know the field and the players better then anyone. More over, these nations will not develop a tolerance for Israel if they become more democratic and cannot become more intolerant towards it if they become more radicalized.
Israel is the great unifier of the middle east – the Sunnis hate the Shiites, the Arab Muslims look down at the African Muslims, the Turks and Persian Muslims look down at the Arab Muslims, and so on. The one thing they can all always agree on is that everybody hates Israel and the Jews !
That is the power Israel possesses and can (and often does) use in it's advantage, and this is also the reason Israel is so paranoid and prepared for every contingency scenario. If Israel gets a few more friends in the region due to more open and democratic regims that will be great and they'll take it, but it is not necessary for their survival and/or way of life.
In short, I think Israel is going to be just fine, and I trust in them to maintain their strength, way of life, and regional role no matter the outcome.
I think Mr. Zakaria intentionally left Isreal out of the picture. It is in Isreals best intrest to stay out of the picture. Watch with a mix of trepidation and hope. The real place that Isreal and the rest of the world needs to watch fairly closely is Iran. And that is something I would really like to hear Mr. Zakaria's opinion on. I think that Iran is a little different than the other countries in the region. In some ways it reminds me more of North Korea. While other countries have maintianed repressive regimes. Iran seems to have more systematically infiltrated and reduced the power of the opposition and seperated the rest of the world in order reduce the will of the opposition. The Iranian regime has an impunity that no other regime has been able to afford. The closest has been Libiya and you can see how hard it is to change there. If Quadaffi regime can survive this uprising, it will be interesting to see how the offspring in the coming generations do. While the world worries about mission creep and Libiya becoming the next Vietnam, the thing to remember is that Vietnam was a war of world proportions between two ideologies. North Vietnam had the support of the Communist world. Libiya does not have near the intrinsic support. While some countries are strongly against an intervention, they are not inherent allies of Libiya either. My opinion is forget about mission "creep" as that actually makes the problem possible. Instead, it is time for the world to decide what the outcome needs to be and wheather that outcome is worth the cost that will need to be paid to meet that outcome and either go for it or stop. If we can not decide to protect the opposition at all costs and take out the regime, we are only postponing the end result and may actually make the problem worse.
"palestinian" common family names:
Just like "Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti" born in "tikrit iraq"
The family names(Nisbah نسبة) of Arabs who now occupy judea reveal their country of origin:
"Masri" OR "al-masri" =from Egypt ,Hamas member of Parliament in gaza, Mushir al-Masri (the word "masri" littelery means "the egyption" in arabic !).
"Khamis"= from Bahrain "Salem Hanna Khamis"
"al-ubayyidi" or "al-Obeidi"= from sudan "al-ubayyid"
"al-Faruqi"= Mosul iraq
"al-Araj" = Morocco,a member of the Saadi Dynasty "Hussein al-Araj"
"al-Lubnani" =the lebanese
"al-Mughrabi" = the Moroccan ("Maghreb" – meaning "West" in Arabic, and usually referring to North Africa or specifically to Morocco) ,"Dalal Mughrabi"
"al-Djazair"=the Algerian
"al-Qurashi"=saudi arabia "clan of Quraish"
"al-azd" =yemen "Azd tribe"
"al-Yamani"= the Yemeni "Issam Al Yamani"
"al-Afghani" = the Afghan
"al-Hijazi" or "Hijazi" = present-day saudi arabia "Ahlam Higazi, a "Palestinian" artist from Hebron"
"al-Hindi" =the Indian "Amin al-Hindi"
"al-Tamimi" or "Tamimi" = from the tribe or clan of Banu-Tamim "Azzam Tamimi"
"Hamati" = from syria ( HAMA city)
"Omayya" = from saudi arabia "Banu Omayya tribe" "Omayya Joha" "palestinian artist" "
"Othman" = turkey
"murad" =yemen "murad tribe"
"Alawi" = from syria (minority religious group in syria)
"Iraqi" =from Iraq.
"halabi" =from aleppo syria
"Dajani"= from saudi arabia
"Mattar" = from YEMEN (the village of BANI Mattar)
"al-baghdadi"= from bagdad iraq.
"Tarabulsi"= Tarabulus-Tripoli, Lebanon.
"Hourani" =Houran Syria.
"Zubeidi"= from iraq "Zubeidi tribe" "Zakaria Zubeidi"
"al-Husayni" =saudi arabia.
"Saudi" =Saudi Arabia.
"Metzarwah"=egypt.
"Bardawil" ="salah bardawil" HAMAS legislator in gaza,egypt "bardawil lake" area
"nashashibi"= syria.
"Bushnak" =bosnia
"zoabi"= from iraq "Haneen Zoabi".
"Turki" =turkey "Daud Turki"
"al-Kurd" = kurdistan.
"Haddadins" = YEMEN descended from Ghassanid Christian Arabs.
"Arab Abu-Kishk" = Egypt.(Bedouins)
"Arab al shakirat" = Egypt (Bedouins)
"Arab al zabidat" = Egypt (Bedouins)
"Arab al aramsha" = Egypt (Bedouins)
"Abu Sitta" =In Arabic' Abu means father and sitta means six. Translated it actually means father of six. The Abu Sitta family primarily received this name because around the year 1700, a well known knight of the large Al-Tarabeen tribe always had six slaves (i.e. fedawyah, bodyguards), 3 on each side, with him. They were with him wherever he went, day or night. Hence the name "ABU SITTA." =Egypt (Bedouins) "Salman Abu Sitta "
"Nuba, Hebron" =founded by the "nuba people"
Even "Arafat", the most famous fakestinian and leader of the terrorist grup the P.L.O, is not native to judea. He called himself a "Palestinian refugee" and claimed he was born in jerusalem ! BUT spoke
Arabic with Egyptian dialect. He was born in 1929 Cairo, Egypt. He served in the Egyptian army, studied in the University of Cairo, and lived in Cairo until 1956 !
Arafat's full name was Mohammed Abdel Rahman Abdel Raouf Arafat al-Qudwa al-Husseini.
"Al-Qudwa" tribe origin?
-Professor Azmi Bishara(Arabic: عزمي بشارة)– a "palestinian arab"
"There is no "palestinian nation" !
when were there any Palestinians??? LOL
until the end of the 19th century, Palestine was the south of "Greater Syria" another resent invention.
there is only an arab nation !
the word "palestine" its self is a colonial invention used by the romans in order to erase the jewish identity of judea and israel.
even the "Palestinian National Charter" recognizes all the jews living in the region prior to the 1948 war as "palestinians" !
its an intellectual fad, divorced from the concerns of uneducated people"
-Zuheir Mohsen (Arabic: زهير محسن)- top p.l.o member responsible for damur massacre.
"The "Palestinian people" does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a "Palestinian people".."
What's gonna happen to the fucking ragheads after Christ nuke their asses off to Allah's lake if fire?
Here is my guess what is going to be happen in 10 years in World not in the Middle East..
1-US and Israel will have been fucked up totally.
2-Chine will be Superpower
3-EU will be fall apart-will be crying for money....
4-Turkey will be Regional Power in Europe,Middle East
About elephant...It was old Soviet-era joke "It was Pharaoh and Jews. Where Pharaoh and where Jews? It was Romans and Jews. where Romans and where Jews? It was crusaders and Jews. Where crusaders and where Jews? It was Nazi and Jews. Where Nazi and where Jews? And now it's communists and Jews... What do you want to say? Nothing – Jews just got to the finals..." Well, looks like communists where in semi-finals.
I tend to agree with Hagar – Israels is not in a position to loose as it has nothing but a 'cold peace' with Egypt and Jordan. I also agree with Ziad Damaty as Israel has nothing to do with Arab [cultural] revolution (it's 'cultural' not in Mao Zedong sense, but in changing culture of obedience to the rulers to culture of challenge of authorities).
For dictatorial systems external enemy (Israel) is a vital unifying force and scare-goat and justification for host of internal things (like emergency law in Syria for 50 years, shortage of bread and unemployment all over the Arab world, etc.) Democracy (even with 'Radical Islamic' facade) by it's own nature more concern with things at home ('when the next elections?') even it may spit war-slurs on every corner. Look at Hezbollah in Lebanon before and after 2006. Nasralla is in very difficult position now: before 2006 he had to please only his Iranian backers, but now he has a choice to make: to please Iranians and to insure there financial support by starting (devastating to Lebanon) war with Israel, or to please Lebanon voters by saving Lebanon and not starting a war (while keeping arm-race and anti-Israel rhetoric all-time high). I do have pity for him as it's very hard choice to make (he can be saved only by 'martyrdom', but he's not brave enough to show his face – he's a humble man and even many have blood feud bill for him, he's not ready for 72 virgins yet).
So, if democracy (even flowed Indonesian-style) will take roots in the Arab world, the Israel (and western civilization in general) will be in better situation as dispute any anti-Israeli and anti-Jewish rhetorics likehood of a war will go down and situation will be more like in Greek-Turkish Cyprus: both sides 'like to hate' each-other, but no side wants to go to war (other things are more pressing – EU membership, for example).
So, the 'finals' can be deferred indefinitely and at the end (in 100 years – not that much time for the Old World) may be even forgotten (year, I cross my fingers, but not hold my breast -:)
Those are basic ideas behind 'Case for Democracy' book by Shcharansky (I don't thing Shcharansky will claim authorship on ideas, just on presentation -:).
So, Arab world democratization is a good thing regardless of political views of near-term winers.
And Israel has nothing to do with it and nothing to loose in it.
Sorry for some typos ('year' instead of 'yea', etc.) and one omitted point: Hamas in Gaza is not a democracy. It got power by means of democratic elections, just like Nazis in Germany in 1933, but it's not a democracy (also like Nazis). The danger that democratically elected Hamas-like guys will abolish democracy right away is the biggest risk now.
I pray to the God (whatever his name will be) that it won't happen. And I hope he'll hear me because nowadays Arab world is not exactly Germany of 1933. And in Gaza Hamas rule is under same pressure from inside as all other dictatorships in the region.
I just hope to live long enough to see (without overstating my 'welcome' on this Earth -:)
Fareed needs to go back to his brethhren in the middle east and leave MY country..................I become ill simply looking at him..........
Fareed needs to go back to his brethren in the middle east and leave MY country..................I become ill simply looking at him..........
Isreal should worry. What we are witnessing in the middle east is a popular uprising of the people against their tyrannical regimes. Although the uprisings are not directed towards Isreal, the people protesting are almost all against Isreal for good reason. I suspect any new governments created and elected by the people are not going to be too friendly towards Isreal. Isreal exists in a tough neighborhood and it is about to get much tougher for them.
As for Christians in the middle east. Christians and Muslims live side by side with almost no problems regardless of what the media wants you to believe. With all of the chaos that happened in Egypt, when the police were no where to be found, no security, not one act of violence was made against any church or Christian in Egypt, this comes from the Coptic church. All of the incidents against churches came when the Mubarak regime was in full control, then when there was no so called protection from the regime, there was not one incident to date. Makes you think.
Seriously???? Israel has no affect on any of the changes mentioned above. Small player with no real power.
If they decide to steal more land from their neighbours, maybe.
In ten years, Israel will not be the Elephant. Let's face it – it isn't large and its significance is a creation of its government and of those who love to hate it. I think Israel in ten years (or it may be called palestine) will be a democracy with equal justice for Jew and Muslim, going through a process of ending apartheid similar to what the US went through in the 1960s. The "Law of Return" will be balanced for Palestinians and Jews and not all Jews will be automatically admitted. It will be a very successful economy and essentially a happy place.
Maybe it's a Jewish dream but there are a lot of actors in that issue and 'Happy Palestine' dream is the most difficult one to accomplish.
I agree that he did not mention the big elephant. Although i love to watch Fareed's show, but this time i have to disagree with his intake. The Middleeast today reminds of the Middleeast in early fifties. Lots of coups and lots of political parties taking shape. The only thing though, at that time, the West was very much involved of what was going on and the Arab population was half a sleep. Today, the Arab population is awake and Israel which did not kind of exist in the fifties and insisting not to deal with the Palestinians and pushing for Jewish state, is kind of a stone in the shoes today and i believe that what is going to push the Arab population toward more radical Islam. I think the United States political power in the Middleeast is in decline and to be honest, the one who controls the Middleeast, its oil and natural gas is the new super power. The United States is not playing an honest broker in the Middleast when it comes to Israel and is not being honest at all when it comes to Saudi Arabia. Those 2 countries are going to hurt the U.S politically and remember, the Middleeast is very much like its desert, quicksand, once you are in, its not that easy to get out.
Jesus Wingman.. you should be riding the nuke.
in ten years egypt and much of the muslim world shall be ruled by strict sharea law and i hve the feeling you already know this very well fareed zakariya!
( ;
Don't doubt the power of freedom! Sharia law will go extinct, it is inevitable! It takes only a tiny breeze and the winds of change will blow. Do not fear the extremists, they are load but they are but few.
Someone's been watching too much Glenn Beck...
Just like Indonesia as Fareed Predicts. Where Fareed fails in his analysis is a country like Indonesia today where minorities barely have the right to exist, is better than an Egypt under Mubarak. Sharia law will come to Egypt and they will have another Iran/indonesia/saudi arabi whatever you want to call it BUT IT WONT BE BETTER.
You're right, almost that is. I mean if the new law is called Sharia, it wont be what you think. That's because you got no clue that Sharia (Islamic law) is not static.
President Trump will destroy the Middle East, Israel included, in a nuclear holocaust, the likes of which could never even be imagined if you considered it for a thousand years. TRUMP/PALIN ALL THE WAY IN THE USA 2012 !!
For those of you saying that "sharia law" will creep into egypt.
point of information: sharia law already exists in egypt. nothing new. anything related to family matters is dealer in terms of sharia law if you are of muslim faith.
can we talk about another boogie man. this one is getting old.
Nobody with knowledge of the region of the culture "Knows this" ... in fact nobody thinks it is true.
You obviously don't know what Sharia law is. It is actually very similar to Jewish Halacha ... almost point for point. It is similar in concept to Catholic canon law. It is most definitely not what isalmophobes conflate it as and it is also not the added components that repressive regimes have added, claiming that they are following religious laws when they are not.
You need to study this more because your knowledge is zero and your speculation that an expert such as Mr. Zakaria "Knows" what you think you know, but don't is extreme arrogance and, quite frankly, stupidity.
I agree with the answers from the people that just offered their opinion....Convert to Christianity and you die? Is that correct and did this happen...The Mosque and State should be seperated...Two prayers a day only..one in the morning and one at night..Put me on your TV show so I can offer my opinion...not the same people whos brain we have picked for years...Bill the Greek..I am afraid that Fareed Zakaia is afraid like the Al TV station to come out with any statement and to how it should be done there...He is afraid that he will be killed by a fanatic...
Thats like me saying "give something up for lent every other year". You cant go and change peoples religions, the religion says pray five times a day and if they choose to let them. Not two times a day. Thats just stupid
Theo only Shiites all over the world only following those moderate practices as you told.
Mr. Constantine – you have no clue and need to broaden your knowledge of Egypt and of the middle east. The truth is that there have been Christians in Egypt longer than in Europe and they are still alive. Yes, there are occasional riots and outbursts but those who govern have always, since the time of Jesus, have protected the Christians. In fact, Islam has specific rules about protecting Christians which have generally been followed by its leaders.
So stop listening to professional islamophobes such as Robert Spencer or Faux news. The information you have is incorrect and not supported by any responsible academic in the US.
Fundamental change?? Indonesia, where they didn't want to shake the US first Ladies hand, where they stone people, even want to behead a Christian, because the prison doesn't due critizising Islam. Indonesia, where they slaughter Christians. That's fundamental change?? So Libya is going to be the same way as Egypt. Egypt were they lately burned a Copt Church and Christians their houses, because of their faith. That's what Egyptians call revolution and the west calls democracy. We should nuke them. For instance look at Japan. Indonesia a country that tries to do the same as Iran. Build nuclear facilities, while their neighbour country Japan (more and most efficiënt country in the region) just got hit by a tsunami. Indonesia (country with 200 million muslims) want to make a nuclear bomb. Islam is dictatorship. That always means war. Islamic countries having a nuclear bomb isn't safe. Someone gets nuked. They fire one on us, we fire 100 back. Or we fire one on them, they fire one back, we fire 200 on them.
while you mentioned bout .."Egypt were they lately burned a Copt Church and Christians their houses, because of their faith.' do you care to find out how the Christians protected the Muslims during the Friday prayer in the midst of the protests. Now, don;t even try think to twist what I just said to make it look like the Christians were turning the other cheek while in reality, what it meant was that among the civilians, there is no beef between the Christians and the Muslims.
today muslims protected christian easter services in egypt. christians protected muslims worshipping on friday. there is more "protection" and unity than there is fighting. egypt is NOT a secretarian state. And yes there are idiots that would like it to be so, but the majority of egyptians are not extremist in nature and have lived with each other for THOUSANDS of years. Foreign infiltrations from Saudi arabia and elsewhere like to mess up our social fabric, but this is NOT in an Egyptian's nature. Egyptians just have to remember our history and know that we are one people. A 200 year old country will not teach a 9000 year old civilization how to exist. thank u very much. We might have some bumps...but we will make it out, just like we have time and time again.
If this subject interests you so much ... learn about it. Absolutely nothing that you said "Mr. Gort" is true or based on real fact or understanding of Islam.
I think, all Middle-Eastern governments follow India, the most corruption nation on the earth.
I think, all Middle-Eastern governments follow India, the most corruptted nation on the earth.
Dummy....your name sounds just like your thoughts.....dumb !
What has India got to do with this ? Agreed there is corruption in India but every country in the world is plagued by it.
Mind you India will be the top 3 economies in the world in 20 years.
@Dummy Dump->seriously dude..u need help (mentally)
How did you arrive at this conclusion (That all countries in the Middle East follow India?)
There are many Middle Eastern countries that follow Saudi Arabia. Especially those who are members of the GCC.
There are other Middle Eastern countries that perhaps follow Iran.
The rest just attend to their own needs, and do not follow anyone.
And Gaddafi is someone who is insane
Also, India is not in the Middle East.
The reason that they follow India is not for the corruption, but for Indias Democratic and mostly Hindu culture. These are the things that Muslims want and love....lol....NOT!
I have 2 words for the snipers (as in Syria), "The Stranger," by Albert Camu.
LOL Hagar, you crack me up.
Farheed, You mention the development of kinder and gentler monarchies. What about the one country that is now ruled by a theocratic government, Iran? What do you predict for the future of that country?
What the hell are you smoking?? . . . . Bush did nothing but wreck America. Bush should have been toppled like the middle easterns are doing to their dictators.
Exactly!!! At least someone here knows what hes talking about. What about Iran Mr. Zakaria? U went all the way to monocco but forgot one of the main players...Iran will be as big of a player as Saudi will. Oh by the way Mr. Zakaria. I personally think ur a liberal trying to hate on donald trump and every other republican. Just do me a favor. Go live in a cave somewhere in monocco (ur favorite country) and let history play everything out
Thank you President Bush for initiating change in the middle east. History will be accurate even if ideologues of today are blinded by their foolishness.
HOW you managed to connect Bush to the present Middle East dynamic is beyond me.
Vanda Mendoca:
Please check out my resp below and tell me if you STILL LIKE IT!
I would disagree about the prospective gradual change in the oil-rich countries. Oil-rich nations such as Nigeria, despite their acceptance of bribes, are plagued with cruel, tyrannical governments and extreme environmental/ethical malpractice. The assassination of activist writer Saro-Wiwa is a great example of how crucial change must occur in oil-producing nations. Also, recent environmental disasters such as the deep horizon oil spill, mega storms, and high cancer rates will precipitate a more rapid change in those countries as a result of growing public uprest.
Good visions of the future. What about the fringe groups..Hamas & Hezbellah?...I don't think they'll sit back & let themselves be displaced by freedom of choice. Sad that Syria is such a basket case..I hope the people rise up, destroy the Army & let a new day begin for them. I wish the whole region the best.
The same thing will happen to them as happened to the IRA in Ireland and to the Irgun. They, or rather their members, will become part of the political process. The Irgun was the terrorist organization which helped force the UK to give up Palestine so it could become Israel. The Irgun lobbed home made rockets, blew up hotels with women and children in them, used truck bombs disguised as ordinary farmers trucks, assasinated and so on. In short, Hamas is no different. Netanyahus Likud party is a direct political descendant of the Irgun.
In time, these organizations always run out of steam as their constituents find a political voice.
We need more belly dancers for peace.
We need less bigotry disguising itself as humor.
When can we expect more chocolate covered figs & dates?...yummy after toking the Middle East Hashish.
Hashhish is from Afghanistan ... not egypt.
"I think with the oil-producing states, change will be more evolutionary. Eventually there will be kinder, gentler monarchies that spread the wealth around more."
Did you not read this guys article?
He is a avid socialist.
Fareed, Your vision of the ME in a decade is good, but missing is how will this effect any agreement with Israel by all the Arab nations to resolve the Palestinian question. W/O that, nothing will be settled and the hate and semi-war will go on. Do you see this being resolved in 10 years?
@ judea4ever
Lets take a look at the Israeli common names:
Feldman, Russia
Shapiro, Russia
Fridman, Russia
Rabinovich, Russia
Brodsky, Russia
Zaslavsky, Russia
Kogan, Russia
Reznik, Russia
Kats, Russia
Goldshtein, Russia
rinberg,,Russia
Kaplan.Russia
Sofia, Russia
Anna, Russia
Raisa, Russia
Sarra, Russia
Rosa, Russia
Ida, Russia
Klara, Russia
Riva, Russia
Tsilia.Russia
Mikhail, Russia
Boris, Russia
Gregory, Russia
Leonid, Russia
Efim, Russia
Lev, Russia
Iosif, Russia
Isak,Russia
Ilia,Russia
Naum, Russia
Aron. Russia
Not to mention the ones from Poland and the rest of east Europe.
I do not recall any of the prophets was born in Russia or Poland or even paid a visit there.
This is because over 85% of Jews in Israel are Ashkenazi Jews (from Ashkenaz – Poland/Germany). They emigrated there from Khazaria (southern Russia) about 7-800 BC. The Khazars adopted Judaism, and are not Semitic by blood. They originally spoke German/Yiddish before occupying Palestine (a region even their great, great, great, great grandparents never lived in). Birobidzhan was actually the first true modern Jewish state – not the stolen, bloody land of the Isra-LIES.
It will look different like one big crater
Obviously the middle east – the so called "Arab Spring " is transforming the region for better or worse. But who is really responsible for this 'Grand Design' ? After the oil revolution, the whole region's economy lifted the standard of living beyond pre world wars......the current Arabs sits on the same table as the western allies and dictates the price of oil & gas... is this over ? instead of the national flags, is the western multinational and corporation flags flutter in the middle east ? The Arabs should unite democratically and must ensure its continuity before its too late............. PKM
Remember for all you religious folk: The Anti-Christ will come, before Christ returns – this is what Christians and Muslims believe. Jews on the other hand are still waiting for Christ to come. When the Anti-Christ comes, Jews will think he is actually Jesus Christ (upon him peace) – since he will be almost a perfect imposter. He will come in a time, when right seems wrong, and wrong seems right. This sounds like now. Nowadays, NOT having pre-marrital sex is taboo, when it used to be an outrage.
I am just curious your article is silent on the ethenic footprint across geo-political borders.
Forcasting has to be difficult as each country has it's own unique circumstances, leaders, mix of ethnicities, religious mix. I hope the Earth will be a better place in a few years when this settles out.
I have a related question; How will Wikileaks and Bradley Manning be viewd in 20 years?
I recall the brutal crowd at the Berlin wall concert booing Sinead O'Connor off the stage because she accused the church. Now, we all unfortunately are aware that she was totally correct in her facts, at least. Will we find ourselves viewing this individual and organization with much more respect ?
To Fareed,
It seems that one of the central hubs around which America's involvement in Afghanistan revolves is the relationship between Pakistan and India. The two have fought wars against each other and there are still border disputes that create an incredible cultural tension between the two countries. We clearly see that Pakistan is somewhat dragging its heels in going after Taliban members that have moved into their country in part to augment its military presence along the Pakistan-India border. If the President of the United States asked you for a proposal to ease some of the bad blood between India and Pakistan and get them to work together on this issue, what steps would you describe to move in that direction and how would you implement it?
Fareed is a moron when it comes to Pakistan issues. He is an Indian. Do you really expect an honest answer from him?
Fareed Zakaria may be Indian-born, but he is a Muslim. Hence, like all Muslims, he will put his religion first before any loyalty to the country of his birth, citizenship or the U.S. where he now lives! Make no mistake about that!
Agree. Fareed comes across as a classic Indian who does not believe in the concept of British India partition. His analysis of Pakistan is arguably laughable and his world views are invariably through prism of Indian secularism. Its just a very fluid situation in the Middle East .Only time will tell how and where the chips fall in the coming decade. In subtle ways all of us including Fareed have our own analytic slant.
So you think that someones nationality disqualifies them from knowledge of other countries? for example – yourself?
Dr. Zakaria is a widely respected expert on the Middle East with a PHD from Harvard in economics and political science. Hardly a moron. You? What are your qualifications? Probably 0.
Juan, you're a moron, not Fareed. I am of Pakistani/Indian heritage, and I have a few relatives over in Pakistan, and all of them appreciate Fareeds analytical and almost absolutely objective reporting on everything. He is an EXPERT on India-Pakistan relations.
What are you. Fareed's bitch? He is as biased against Pakistan as Rep. king is against Muslims. Get your head out of sand or his @$$.
Economics are the critical underlying force...the gap between haves and have-nots is increasing. Population is also rising...the percentage of young population under age 25 within all these ocuntries is high...unemployment high, costs rising, food and water and electricity shortages....the list goes on...all issues must be solved in order to create a more secure future. It may seem like it's religion....but it's not the only influence.
Imagine not being able to support the family; imagine not having an education system, imagine not having an industrialized country that offers jobs for your population. Then imagine watching these mega-rich groups, driving by in their luxury cars, going to their mega-million mansions, flying all over th eglobe....without a care in the world, and not only that....they don't even acknowledge you exist. What do you expect the reaction will be? Until it is solved, the backlashes will continue.
We're arguing over such trivial things in the USA because most of us writing on blogs have a great life. It might take much longer than 10 years to solve issues in parts of the world where the problems are so ingrained and run so deep within the culture and economy....it could take more like 70-100 years and a few more generations before it can emerge as stable. By then, though, oil supplies may drastically change globally, and a new set of problems will appear. America will also face similar challenges....economy, energy, growth, internal wealth....haves and have-nots...these are global issues that aren't going away no matter how much they are ignored.
That is a myth propagated by the Pakistani military leadership as a ruse to not have to go after their proteges in North Waziristan.
The only reason the Pakistani army is not going after the militants is so that they can bring them back into play for what they think is their strategic depth as soon as Washington gets sick of the Afghanistan quagmires and leaves.
The India and Pakistan cannot work together in any practical manner until the issue of Kashmir is settled once and for all. They need to split Kashmir and divide it up or free the people of Kashmir in a free nation to settle this issue. This is similar to Israel occupying the illegal territory which is a sole major issue of the middle east. I see more trouble and more wars through out the middle east and other parts of the world in the next 10 years with devastating consequences. We should concentrate in producing more energy at home or we will be messed up economically and may have to file for bankruptcy that will be our complete downfall and crippled nation by the energy producers control by the middle east. Where are the brains of United States? We had control over the world in the last century but did not plan ahead to look forward. We need to get our house in order instead of policing the world.
Hi,
kashmir can not be resolved without bangaladesh becomming pakistan again. Lets ask bangladesi if they are intrested.
This discussion between india & pakistan is useless. The same race is fighting among themselve and other races are playing. This middle-east discussion can not have south east in it dumbooos
So true... we should mind our own business and house of lies before tending to others'
Friends:
If you are TRULY interested in contributing to the Af-Pak (incl. negotiating withe Taliban, drone strikes etc.), and Indo-Pak discussions there's a lot going on right here on CNN-GPS.
Let's discuss!
Check out mine & Mr.Ismaeel's responses! There are too many of them.
Amit-Atlanta-USA
Also check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. You may want to discuss that too.
Dude, no one gives a jack about your useless RESP that is below somewhere so try to that pie-hole shut. Better yet, go back to India, Atlanta is way too first world for yaaa.
Am wondering how you got the idea that ten years ago "most people thought that Indonesia wouldn't even exist as a country" You obviously listened to a very select group of people. Anyway, there is a significant difference between Indonesia and Egypt; the former is rich in natural resources, including oil and gas. But the Egyptians are much more well-educated now than Indonesians ten years ago or even now, although Egyptians are also much much more class-stratified. Nevertheless, I join you in wishing that Egypt will be at least as stable and prosperous as Indonesia ten years from now. Muslims need more Malaysias and Turkeys.
Nawawi..............your concern are good.Now Malaysia is better than Indonesia in several issues. But what Fareed Zakaria mean was the conflict. Indonesia and Egypt had dictated for over 30 years. If you think that Indonesia, Malaysia or Turkey as a Muslim country. I think we all wrong. They are not. They are simply a secular country with majority of Muslims.
Indonesia was in turmoil towards the end of the last millennium – famine led to insurrections in many parts of the country. On top of which the separatist movement in East Timor, which got its independence in 2001. So Fareed was not wrong, when he described the situation in Indoneisa some 10 years ago.
Friends:
Check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. You may want to discuss those.
What haunts me is the spectre of a Middle East dominated by the US,Great Britain and France. Unless the people of the Middle East get together and stand up for themselves,that's what precisely will take place and Islam itself may start to become a thing of the past. At that point,these people will cease to chant "Allah Akbar" and start to chant "Allah Akbar,but Capitalism,Akbar-er".
Good. All religions should take that same path.
One can only hope. None of us would be worse off.
keep dreaming !!
I agree unless Muslims adapt to evolving 21st century realities, they may never see true progress, and all these movements may remain mere aberrations!
Also check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. You may want to discuss those.
We see your progress in Japan and in the gulf last year. Your progress willbring us to the end much quicker. Why do you tout this so called progress?
I agree with you on Syria, Iran must be really worried about losing its only Arab ally.
Well within ten years Saudi Arabia will change so much ...... I can't even describe it.It is a prophecy that this will happen.
lol, comparing the Middle East to Indonesia is ridiculous. The Middle East is no better off now than they were 10 years ago, and 10 years from now, will still be no different.
Yeah.........you probably right................all of the prophets and religion from Islam , Christian and Jews were there..............but seems has nothing change............just wait for Jesus or prophet Isa to show up.
Jack, you got it wrong, Fareed meant Egypt, when he compared it with Indoneisa! I personally think that Egypt would be another Turkey, with a strong military in the background, yet a secular, islamic ruling party that governs. It would focus primarily on its political stability and economic growth. The Israeli-Palestinian issue would not be on top of their agend of foreign politics.
Egypt and Iran will resume diplomatic ties. A week after Mubarak stepped down, two iranian warhsips got the permission on Feb. 18 to pass through the Suez on their way to Syria. The U.S. and Israel fear a change of wind in foreign policy in the post-Mubarak Egypt. The ruling elite will focus more on the Arab world, have more sympathy towards the Palestinians and distance itself from the West.
I believe that too, UNLESS Muslims adapt and join the revolutions sweeping the free world (Tech, Education, Freedom, Tolerance etc.), they may never see true progress, and all these movements may remain mere aberrations!
Also check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. You may want to discuss those.
April 23, 2011 at 10:42 am | Reply
I agree with your assessment that Democracy has the effect if diffusing extremism in the long run.
prediction is tough especially about specific countries, it's all fear and greed tho and until we moderate or evolve past these tendencies any attempts at greater freedom and share of wealth will be violent and ugly, I am surprised and pleased by what is going on in the mid east/north africa, I realize I won't see a free and equal world in my life but it seems we are at least heading in the right direction no matter how slow. I suspect in the short run the mid east will not achieve these things until they get out from under the yoke of institutionalized islam tho it indeed looks like some changes are coming soon
Give me a single example of 'institutionalized Islam' in a country ?There isn't any..If you are thinking of Saudi Arabia,then for your information , the entire premise is wrong. First,there is no concept of "monarchy" in Islam and likewise no country fits the bill of an 'Islamic State'.
Do you see Turkey being influential in the Middle East? If they do become part of the European will that change their political stance in the region? I've heard people say that Turkey is the answer to peace in the Middle East.
Hi Colin. In my opinion, The language and cultural barrier will limit the role of Turkey in the arab world.
thank you
You mean Turkey already tried to unite us into somthing stronger but got stabbed in the back by the Arabs, dont you?
Mr. Fareed Zakaria is completley wrong. Israel was not even metnioned, it is the 800 pounds guriella and that is where things will be decided, The arab poeple are not happy and do not like israel the way it treats the Palestinians. Are you Mr. Fareed afraid to criticize israel so you will not be fired from your job. I think you are a coward.
wow.
e, Israel has done some bad things, but its population is only 7 million. They dont even have diplomcatic relations with most Arab countries. They are an inconsequential part of the change that is occurring for 50 million Arabs in these other countries. Stop blaming everything on Israel, and start blaming the domestic corruption within these countries themselves. You clearly have an irrational bias against Israel.
Israel is the reason the US gives billions in aid to this region, and our billions are, in fact, the 800-pound gorilla. We give Israel billions, and other countries billions to protect Israel. To deny this is to deny reality. To call what they've done "some bad things" is to ignore the atrocities they committ every day; to call them "inconsequential" is to recognize what Israel should be, and would be without US funds.
So true
Mike: You are mistaken. Plz. don't worry.....by no stretch of imagination is Mr.Zakaria a friend of Israel.
Also check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. You may want to discuss those.
No such thing as a Palestinian.
How about the christians in Egypt? I am affraid they will be gone in 10 years.
Ash Mikhail,MD
NC
I dont think they will. Copts will always play a role in modern Egypt.
and why would the christians in Egypt be gone???????!!!!!!!!!!!!! they lived with the muslims there for 1,400 years.
Iam egyptien and muslem ..... and i tell u " don't be worry abt chrestians there " they r like our brothers ... in days of revolution in square they were protecting us during our pray .. and vice verca
All evidence of oppression and extermination aside...
You are DEAD right!
Check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. You may want to discuss those.
As an Egyptian, I have to say that your article kind of disappoints me. Do not see any grounds for comparing Egypt to indonesia. It is quite far fetched in my mind. I've been thinking deeply about how Egypt would progress. Indonesia in the middle of the ocean in a very different continent and very different culture and ethnicity came to my mind.How can the culture of the river evolve in a line similar to that of the islands ? Isn't this quite far fetched ?? Indonesia is a great nation for sure.Have you visited Egypt ? Have you seen Egyptians in the streets of Alexandria and Egypt ? I really hope that Egyptians will make it in less than 10 years to a great status with no corruption. Egypt is booming with ideas and hopes. Living in the west for the past 7 years i really sense what is potent inside the Egyptian identity.
Egyptian too proud from their past.................it's over............be real
Egyptian were tremendously great..it was.
Looks like you're not watching the news. it took 18 days to topple the pharoah in a very elegant and soft way. The experience of a nation like Egypt transcends generations. Please visit Egypt.I invite you
Regards
Mr. Ihab, thank you for your kind reply to my comment. As you know, occidental (and not only) ignorance is the worst problem. Just because a country adopts a different system or reaches a similar solution through another way does not make it worse. In Western Europe, we look at Scandinavian models as the best for mechanisms like the Ombudsman (mediator) in administrative law processes. How many people know that in Arabic tribal systems, tribe chiefs had a role of judge, concilator for family affairs and social moderator more than 1000 years before Scandinavian countries discovered it ? I have had the chance to teach private international law for a few years and use it in my legal practice for more than 20 years, I can confidently say that the system of legal and confessional fragmentation is a very advanced system from a legal and social point of view. Having visited countries like Egypt, Syria and Jordan for the last 20 years, I am astonished at how little these systems are known to foreigners. Syria has a story that goes back more than 6000 years and has a lot to offer for the region's peaceful and harmonious future so has Egypt. All the best wishes from a Canadian/Greek national.
Mr. Ihab El attar,
i sincerely hope Egypt excel faster than Indonesia, but because of your geographical location and foreign interest. I believe Egypt wont even be able to do what Indonesia have done in the past ten years.
1. more than 30 years of a corrupted system which means makes a DNA modification happened in Egyptian people!!!
2. West interest to maintain Egypt weak by either divide and conquer as Egypt has many ethnics and many religious parties.
3. the excellent investment done by Mubarak in education which left huge number of people illiterate and easily mobilizable for influential people with hidden self interest.
I wish that Egypt remains as one country, and retrieves it's old legacy "19's"
One of the greatest problem facing Egypt is the large increase in the population. In 1979, the population was about 40 million and Egypt was able to feed itself. The current population is about 80 million and Egypt has to import large amounts of food. Part of the reason for the current revolution in Egypt was about feeding the population in the country. Since Egypt is not an oil exporter like Saudi Arabia, the growing population is the biggest problem that the country faces. According to the CIA, an estimated 32% of the population is under 14 years of age. See https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html . Egypt's problems will not go away no matter who is running the country.
Population is a timebomb issue, this is the area which I gave a good credit to President Mubarak. He's not perfect.. but a least worth the score 87 point.
This a propaganda piece. It assumes westernized middle east is best for people.
I second that. But because relativism makes it almost impossible to judge a situation a gauge is needed. And here it was the western gauge for sure. Far too many people assume that all the peoples of the world want a democracy at home. I'm from UAE and (in my western-educated-mind) I find it unfortunate that most UAE nationals are really not interested in having say on virtually any matters of national interest. You can exclude the professors, the western educated and those who spend their day on social networks/media. The average Ahmed is too busy pi*pin' his ride!
Either let them destroy themselves or bomb the place until it turns to glass. Otherwise, shut up.
what is the value added by your comment above?
Get back to your Xbox and let those with something constructive to say have the floor tough guy.
Good to see Americans act "brave" in the internet. Oh, yeah, you're a good soldier : /. With comments like these, its safe to say muslims in the middle east got balls compare to American citizens.
@Allocer, really? its safe to conclude that. I'm not even American but I have to reply and say your comment smacks of ignorance. How do I explain this to you...it's kind of like calling your entire nation's diverse population idiots just because you posted that idiot comment.
The "turn them into a glass parking lot" statement is the standard horse manure you get from bored unoriginal morally dysfunctional American youths.
Ihab& fareed
I do not think there is any hope for middle east as long as your undetstanding of freedom is killing people who are different from you and demonstrating every day for nothing.please go back to work !!
Freedom is bought with the blood of tyrants. Very rarely is freedom attained through a peaceful manner.
The American Foreign policy towards middle east and west Asia for past five years " follow the western pattern of democracy and freedom in the middle east , west Asia otherwise live as Talibaens and die"
It is interesting to me that you don't mention Israel in your predictions. Why is that? Whatever anyone thinks of Israel, they cannot easily deny Israel's contributions to science, medicine, technology and the arts. Hopefully the region will join in pursuit of peace and advancement of human endeavors, living together in peace.
ha ha
And what value does this reply add?
That's kind of a joke, right Elaine? Israel is the food that has fed many dictator's bellies in the region. If they weren't so busy colonizing Palestine, perhaps dictators would not be able to use the justified outrage of the people, against Israel, to stay in power so long.
Colonizing palestine ?
No such thing as a Palestinian.
Israel gave the Sinai back to Egypt and they made peace.
Israel gave Gaza back to the PLO and got rockets in return.
The "So called" Palestinians should return to thier original countrys....
Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt.
What about the 740+ vetos of the US before the UNSC to condemn Israel's illegal actions ? Resolving the restitution of the Golan heights and the Palestinian problem may be of more importance. Cheers.
Perhaps had the arabs not attacked Israel in 1967 and 1973 plus the intafadas, the Israelis would not be in the Territories. Face it, you lost two plus wars and do not want to pay the piper. Man up or do not invade someone.
I agree with the views of NutellaFerrero. E. Howard cannot seriously be writing this. Isreal's illegal colonization is the real problem since it is aimed at depriving Palestinians from human dignity and their right to form a viable State. Sadly, this builds upon another important issue such the refusal to restitute the Golan heights to Syria. Pre-1967 borders are the solution but Israel's continuous expansion and settlements have impeded this. Seizing your neighbor's land is not a very good example to show if you want to live side by side. Injustice feeds resentment and a vicious cycle of conflict.
You attack Israel and lose
now you want everything back you lost ?
Poor widdle arabs.
Dont want to share the sandbox, TUFF !!!
Funny how the wealthy oil producing nations have the military backing of the US, whereas the non oil producing nations do not. We are quick to meet out fiery condemnation upon those non-oil producing states that massacre their unarmed civilians, and yet oddly silent when Saudi Arabia or China commit atrocities and genocide.
South Korea, Belgium, Germany, France, the UK ....should I keep going ...
None of which are "oil-producing" countries have the full support of the US.
Wait, do you have a point?
Huh!...countires u named aren't arab/muslim countires FYI. So do you see the point u idiot.
Zakaria has been wrong on many occasions, in the beginning of 2011 he predicted nothing significant in 2011. I think the Arab world will be a totally different place after 6 months.
after 10 years,
the world will see another USA, which is the United States of Arabia
Cairo will be the captial of the new union, unlike the EU, arabs almost sharing the same language, culture and religion moreover same history, but there are difference in habits and tradions
I remember saudi thinker said, it begins with Egypt and Ends with us
Do you realize how impossible is your suggestion ... that oil rich Kuwait or Saudi would be willing to share their revenues with 80 million Egyptians, let alone all the Yemenis, the Sudanese, the Syrians, etc. Through-out their history since independence from the Turks, the British, French, Italians, the Arab countries have never been able to agree on anything amongst each other. Anyone will tell you that the Arab League is a joke. If anything, the opposite is more likely, that the Arabs states will fragment into smaller states. Iraq may be the first to implode, followed by others.
Then the Janissaries will rise once again, trumpets blaring and drums making the sky shake!
in ten years isreal will be gone and islam will be knocking the doors of europe for the second time in history. stay tuned.
Haha that's funny – good luck with that.
In 10 years, Arabs may be abandoning Islam.
Even though I don't agree with that timeline, it's an ABSOLUTE FACT THAT EUROPE IS ON ITS WAY OUT!
Check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. I believe you will agree with me!
Nobody cares about your expert response.
Just another internet know-it-all.
unfortunately, you may be right
right, primarily because they have more offspring while the rest stop at one or two; similar thing may happen in U.S.... Spanish will become the national language as Queen Isabella envisioned when funding Columbus' voyages
True democracy will be the key. Reasonable people will be able to thrive when they can collectively govern themselves. While tyrants or propped up dictators are still in charge the region will remain chaotic. Fareed I hope your prediction is a correct one.
I don't see how anyone can write a piece about the conflict in the Middle East and not mention Israel. The only reason for the bond between many Middle Eastern countries is their common hatred of Israel. As long as Muslims do not believe that Israel has a right to exist, there will be continued conflict. Only when Muslims learn to accept and tolerate the existence of non-Muslims will there be peace in the Middle East.
I think its ok to mention the middle east without talking of Israel
. It is also ok to speak of europe without mentioning Malaysia.
Pardon me, I didn't realize Europeans all thought Malaysia should be wiped off the face of the Earth (sarcasm).
It is also ok to speak of Muslims without mentioning peace, intelligence, compassion.
anon , not only non muslims, they even treat muslims from different sect, brutally , genocide in bahrain, here is an example, saudi arabia and other.. too bad israel and the arab world dont make peace,, that would be a miracle,, and the end of all this turmoil
why do you folks mix papers ??? or is this intentional. Egypt and the arab world is not oonly moslem. It is moslem and christian and secular. why do you spread Islamophobia ? Islam is full of compassion and great values with millions and millions of followers all over the world. show some respect to the minds and souls of the millions who follow Islam. They probably have a reason for being so passionate about their religion. after all, say hello to whoever sponsors your campaign
I completely agree with you Ihab Ell Attar. It may surprise some readers to know that there was a time where the Arabs ruled Spain and throughout their 800 year rule Muslims, Christians and Jews lived in relative peace. In this period of time culture, education and the art of medicine made massive gains. Further to that it was only a couple of hundred years before this that Islam was even founded. It was under Islamic rule in Morocco when the first degree granting university was founded and this, by a woman. In looking toward cultural enlightenment and understanding I think we should all look toward our own backyards first. I do not know if this is true for you in your country, however it strikes me as odd that in the school and indeed also the university system where I am from Arabic is not a part of the education system. We can learn Spanish, German, French, Chinese, Japanese and Portuguese. We need to start introducing Arabic to the curriculum of western countries in order to move toward a more integrated world. I highly recommend reading this articlehttp://articles.cnn.com/2010-01-29/world/muslim.inventions_1_hassani-inventions-muslim?_s=PM:WORLD become more educated on the subject and less tunnel visioned, help the world to become more accepting by educating yourself in other cultures.
I I remember while I was traveling in Egypt my tour guide threatening to have my head cut off because my other half innocently mentioned that I don't believe in god. A few months after we left Egypt 60 Germans were killed off in Egypt. You fools are crazy, when it comes to Islam as a whole, they are really nice people right up until you don't agree with them. Then you have to make sure you got duct table so your head can be taped back together.
The middle east can be dangerous . However not most of the people ! It is a shame that corrupt governments make their own people look bad , when in fact most of the people there are no different than you and I . I have been to the middle east and would like to return some day ! Anyone who hase never been there will never know the kindness of strangers that I experienced as an American . There is good and bad in all groups of people . All I can say is I am glad for the experience . The kind people that I met there . If I ever go back , I am sure it will have lost some of its charm in many of its old ways . For better or worse ! Its a place where in many ways ,time has stood still !
at least someone who appreciate the people of the middle east. well spoken woody, I am lebanese american born, What is happening is crazy in the arab world,, it meant to be anyway, it was all repressed, I hope y get to go back end enjoy the hospitality and the splendor of some areas in the middle east. (excluding saudi arabia of course and some other arab states, where democracy doesn't exist. and they hate foreigners or anyone who is not part otheir religion
Woody that was nice. Mohammad Asad 's The road to Mecca may be an interesting read if you haven't read it already.I liked it and I am not from the Middle East.
What you said is so true about a few apples spoiling the rest; governments always instigate problems among peoples. Governments, and greedy businessmen.
I hope every thing goes will with these countrier. They all have one common problem " Population & Poverty" If any country has this, then Islamic extremism and Jehadi's will rise.
Lets hope and payer for better living condition in those region.
Just believe in GOD and everything will be fine. God will show you the righteous path.
It is strange silence from 99% of the media including you, that this "Mid-East Spring", bears no relationship to the US fight for democracy in Iraq, on behalf of the Iraq people. Yes there is some turmoil, as is expected in a fledging free society;however , is it not the wellspring of this initial transformation that planted the seed for democracy and people power the "mustard seed" that George W Bush said could happen if people see and witness this recent history?
Yes, ten years is a long time but given the horizon of history, especially in the Mid-East, we may well be on the road to a better way of life for this area of the world.
I agree. Despite the media's focus on all the negative results of the Iraqi and Afghan wars, the positive results have tremendous effects, even ten years later. But of course, bad news sells better so you would rarely hear the good stuff...
United state of arabia.cairo us the capital.really funny.do you watch soccer.
The only thing will unit on is hate for every civilized modern country
What if alternative energy(Bio fuel- Super efficiency and powerful batteries etc etc ) become viable for mass production/consumption in next 5 yrs and thus minimizing dependence on Saudi exports . Will SA or OPEC still be in position to bribe its citizenry into submission ?
Not to sound like a conspiracy theorists, but there are a lot of influential companies that profit off of these oil rich countries. They would at the very least slow down the path to super efficiency to more than five years, let alone introducing that technology into the midde east.
In ten years the faces will be very different, I however am not so sure about their ideology. Same with the issues here in America; Still very much a plutocracy, always has been always will be. Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely...
Just MHO
Zakaria, you nearly totally ignore a simple fact about Islamic regimes/societies–there is NO separation of Mosque and State and they are all tyrannies to one degree or another. You may laud Indonesia, Zakaria, but consider the fact that not terribly long ago a simple, gentle Indonesian man was sentenced to DEATH by the Courts of Indonesia. His Crime?? He had converted to Christianity. Likewise, just this past year, an Egyptian man and his entire family were condemned to death by the Courts of Egypt. His crime? Again, he had converted to Christianity (the courts had forbidden him to convert). This isn't "religion"–it is outright fascism. So where are the tens of thousands of the citizens of these countries who supposedly want "democracy" according to your narrative? I didn't about any of them ranting in the streets to fight for the Freedom of Conscience of these individuals. And you won't. You know why? Because these societies are overwhelmingly Islamic and intolerant of other religions and Sharia Law is embedded to one degree or another in their very foundations. Under Sharia so-called "law" (an oxymoron if EVER there was one), clerics can call for the execution of ANYONE who converts to another religion. Even LEAVING Islam of your own FREE WILL can get you executed as you are then branded "an apostate." YOU may see a rosy picture ahead, but I SEE even greater tyranny as Islamists consolidate more and more of their control over the central government of these regimes. Egypt showed every sign of moving in this direction IMMEDIATELY after Mubarak stepped down. They invited Iran to sail through the Suez with their warships and Egyptian politicians still in power kept up the spouting of how the former treaty with Israel might be rescinded. These are the people who are going to have "democracy??" You Westerners make the assumption that the Islamic world is just like us, that they actually WANT to be Free. I don't believe that at all. None of them have the infrastructure in place for any true democracy and in the end, the REAL TYRANT in their lives that will continue to Oppress them is Islam itself. More than 80% of Egyptians, Zakaria, in a poll this past year expressed their support of the Execution of Homosexuals, Adulterers and ANYONE who leaves Islam. Good luck with your dreaming, Zakaria. Only a total revolution against the repressive force of Islam could change these societies. Ain't gonna happen.......
In my humble opinion you are absolutely right. I have traveled through out the Middle East and have lived in Egypt for many years and I think your thoughts about the subject correspond much closer to reality than Zakaria's which are influenced by western culture. Your comment was very interesting and I also think that as long as this pseudo religion exists in the Middle East change will be extremely slowly and painful. But time is running out and very dark days are coming faster than we think.
really !! You lived in Egypt ? folks on internet : be aware of people who spread islamophobia and speak in a demeaning manner of the arab and moslem world. They misrepresent facts. Just like many "Hollywood" movies. One day the world will learn from other sources other than fox news and "Holloywood" dominated media. The clock is ticking
How much insanity that emanates from the Islamic world has to exist before people wake up and understand that Islam has far, far more in common with other totalitarian ideologies than any actual "religion?" It is OBSESSED by both the control of the individual as well as attempting to fulfill its Koranic mandate to spread Islam, through violence if necessary, in order to ultimately subjugate the rest of the world under its ideology. I am the last in the world to be a conspiracy theorist. But read the Koran–it is one of the most despicably violently inciting documents which is overwhelming in its hatred of the Jews as well as any other group (a.k.a. "infidels" or "non-believers") who refuse to accept Islamic dogma. The WORLDWIDE epidemic today of Muslim terror (extant in some 20 nations around the globe) could not exist without its Koranic mandate. Islam runs TOTALLY counter to the U.S. Constitution and our Bill of Rights. Islam SANCTIONS its so-called "clerics" to order the execution of ANYONE who is deemed to be "A Threat To Islam," often with huge sums of money offered. World famous (and Muslim by birth) writer Salman Rushdie and the gentle, elderly Danish cartoonist (Westergaard) who drew the brilliant cartoon of an Eastern looking individual with a bomb and lit fuse in his turban, both lived in a state of terror for years as Muslim would-be assassins hunted for them. Five years later, just this past year, Westergaard's home was broken into by a Muslim with an axe who was attempting to kill him. He just received a long sentence. To put Islam in perspective, imagine this in the U.S. or EU: that all Rabbis, Priests and Ministers would be SANCTIONED by the state to call for the death of anyone who they claim to be "a threat" to their respective faiths. Insanity. The Bottom Line: Islam has more in common with The MAFIA than with religion. It is, in essence, a Supremacist ideology, a theo-political ideology that has little reverence for life. Perhaps Bin Laden stated it best in one of his tapes that was forward to the press years ago: "YOU Love Life, While We Love Death." To date since 9/11, some 17,095 people have been slaughtered by MUSLIM terrorists, the vast majority being Muslims themselves. My claim is simple: Israel is not the problem for Muslim; nor America or the EU or Asian democracies. The MAIN tyrant that haunts Muslims is none of these, it is ISLAM itself, which is repressive, opposed to democracy (Islam is theocratic) and which has little respect for Human Conscience or Freedom of Will. I also predict that the uprisings in today's Muslim nations/regimes will bring even greater tyranny to these lands within a relatively short while. There will be huge civil strife between the totalitarian Islamist populations of these socieities and those who wish to have reform. But NO True "REFORM" will be permitted, as the only thing that could bring that about would be the very revision of Islami Ideology–and I doubt that Muslims will permit the Koran to be re-written today. Read it. It should be essential reading for Westerners, as it is the only true way of understanding this barbaric and intolerant ideology that has replaced Communism as the main Totalitarian force in our world today. In fact, it makes Communism look like a philanthropic organization by comparison....
The return key is your friend.
Do you not breathe when you speak?
Marat:
I broadly agree with you at least on the need for tolerance in the ME.
Check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. I believe you will agree with me!
I do respect your predictions, but you are wrong my friend, the 800-pound gorilla will fall and soon, and when it falls it will be very hard to get up(falling and can not get up, lol).
I do not know how much you know about Saudi culture and their repressive ruling system!, if you really do a detailed research you will changed your prediction, this country has nothing but A CRUEL CULTURE AND CONTEMPRARY FORMS OF SALAVERY, hope they go to hell.
i agree with you nazeeh. no one knows saudi arabia like we do.. everybody is fooled by their monarchy
What I know of Saudi society is that is was absolutely sickening to watch Obama bend down in reverence to the King of Saudi Arabia. It is a vile, vile regime, with a never ending string of newborn royalty being born over time. Here is a snapshot for the unitiated: Saudi Arabia–No Jews allowed; Bo Bibles allowed; No other Churches allowed; No other religion other than Strict Islam allowed; no women permitted to work in close proximity with males; no women permitted to hold high office or to vote; homosexuals periodically executed, morals "police" constantly patrolling to judge the suitablilty of womens' clothing; and for an extra joy of Islamic life, there are even "Muslim ONLY" roads. The Islamic world is fond of calling Israel an "Apartheid" State. Ridiculous. It is a thriving and vibrant democracy, a small economic powerhouse of a society (it led all G8 nations in growth this past year), with world class research universities partnered with the best universities in the world. Tiny Israel has produced MORE Nobel winners within 63 years, than the ENTIRE Islamic world since 1911. Perspective? Muslims are 20% of the world; 7 winners, if you count Arafat, who invented airplane hijacking. Jews: a mere 0.02% of the world population, with over 174 Nobel Winners, some 27% of all prizes, with higher percentages in particular categories (physic, economics, physiology, medicine). Keep heading the Jews, I say to the Muslim states–you owe your very life to their contributions to humanity in virtually every field.
How can some steal and claim to be a vibrant democracy... read Mohammad Asad's Road to Mecca. It may broaden your perspective.
Looking forward to the demise of the house of Saud – agreed one of the most vile regimes in the world !
President Bush kissed them all on the cheek and held hands, but thats ok huh ?
When visiting another nation its diplomatic protocal to follow the customs of that nation.
Nobody complained when our leaders bow to the Japanese
But everybody bashes President Obama for bowing when in Saudi Arabia.
In Ameriaca visiting dignitaries shake hands (Protocal)
Refusing to do so would be an insult.
You should spend more time learning how the world works
and less time babbling garbage.
I don't know what you mean with your reference to Israel. But, it's foolhardy to believe that Israel will go away UNLESS the Iranians, Pakistanis use their ISLAMIC BOMBS to wipe Israel off the map!
Check out my DETAILED RESP. below (April 23rd, 10:08 am) on Mr.Zakari's assertions. Let's discuss.
Islamic Bombs ?
Wow, i never knew.
What does Zakaria know about the middle east? He says "I think" a lot. Just another non white minority hire by CNN. Zakaria is an intellectual light weight.
I stand to agree and disagree with your views. Yes, I can see Saudi Arabia (SA) becoming a Constantinople of today. The US is not enforcing any form of democratic manner, but opening the eyes of the civilians of the essence of freedom from tyranny. Democracy as a whole is a working cycle that continues to evolve. The possibilities are endless for SA. I do disagree in the retorts in this article. Other countries can only offer support in a resolution for other countries. Not one country can be the "defining pennacle" of another. Turkey is doing well for themselves but they are doing so by asserting different avenues to allow themselves to be a functioning society. SA is the center of the Islam world, that much is true. A lot of very educated individuals live there and, quite frankly, a lot of well-educated terrorist organizations as well. We are all dual-sided...no doubt.
As for Egypt, I love the country even with its rich history of tyranny and slave labor. Egypt has the opportunity to do what the Bohemian Revolution did for France. Freedom and democracy start with ideas and then flourish, correct? Then I say we take a step back, help if it is needed and see a country grow into the country that it is destined to be. The more we bicker and argue over what other countries are taking steps towards acheiving, we are becoming more and more like Rome. Everyone needs a dream or an idea of freedom and I believe that the Arab world should have the same opportunity.
i hope this will happen ,, democracy in the arab world..
Holy ... W was right!!!
I agree with Zakaria here and I hope he is right. I think that he leaves out a few problems. For instance, in 10 years, Yemen will have no oil left. Yemen is already in trouble, and without oil it will become a serious problem. Really, 10 years is not much time at all for a nation. I wish the Egyptian people the best.
But what passes for moderation in the middle east would be considered fascism and get a person sent to prison here. I am not very hopeful about that part of the world. Some wonderful, smart, great people are there, but the region is ruled by ideologies that are nasty.
More than oil, they will run of water soon. There have been several reports of an upcoming water crises.
John:
Check out my DETAILED resp to Mr.Zakaria's assertions (April 23rd, 10:08 am). Let's discuss.
i'd like to say 'give it up' to zakaria on the subject matters he presents, although it sounds quite logical, it is obviously biased
The only thing I can add after spending half of my life in Egypt and half in USA is "GOD BLESS AMERICA"
I hope it is fundamentally different in that it is Christian, not Islam. Best day of my life was when I converted away from that false religion of hate and inequality. My fellow women, reach out to Jesus even if you must only do so in your mind because of the fear you live in from the men around you. (True) Peace be upon you.
I'm from the richest oil country "Saudi Arabia" and I can tell that Zakaria is a stupid dummy there is no mass bribery in Saudi.
Who is going to be the Gus Dur of Egypt?
Marat makes excellent points. Sharia Law is not sound. Sharia law is a foundation for the unethical persecution of minorities by clerics and governements when they see fit. Liberty and Freedom requires separation of state and religion. I do not percive the rights of individuals as a priotiy at this time in the middle east. I pray as a Christian individual rights evolve over time as a path to peace and prosperity in the middle east.
It's interesting, but a lot of politicians and pundits have said for decades that the center of the Middle East is the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Nothing will happen until it is resolved. Well, it seems that the revolutions going on are independent of the dispute and I don't see you, Mr. Zakaria, even mentioning it in your prediction of the future. Sounds like all of the politicians and pundits were wrong after all. But I do hope for a peaceful and fair solution for both sides.
I think the three main countries to focus on are Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran. Iran has a large opposition movement, they just need to organize themselves. Israel is aware that whatever change happens in Egypt will affect Israel. I think Israel will start the peace process all over again only out of concern for their own security. Saudi Arabia I think will remain the same as it was for a long time unless a reform minded monarch comes to the throne like what happened when King Hamid of Bahrain succeeded his father, King Isa . I doubt that will happen since the Saudi royal family is very conservative.
Fareed:
I think you have overlooked the most critical country in the Middle East: Israel. The Middle East in ten years can not be evaluated without considering Israel's situation in ten years and the reaction of the Moslem nations to it. If nothing revolutionary occurs with the Arab-Israeli dispute, the mid-East will become even more unstable.
Israel, to me, seems stuck in its history. Because of the threats against it, Israel has become a warrior state, always on alert. All its actions are taken in consideration of, and constrained by, the need to remain alert. It can not rest in peace. In addition, its internal policies of providing a homeland for the Jews, are driving a massive contradiction: protection of and freedom for the Jews, many Israelis seem to believe, can not be achieved while providing equality and freedom to the Palestinians, living within Israel. Demography has also become a threat: the growing population of Palestinians will eventually make Jews a minority in their own homeland.
Revolution will come to Israel, though not as an Islamic Intifadah aimed at destroying the Jews. Instead, unarmed protests will develop during which the Palestinians demand better political and economic rights. They will demand, in particular, guaranteed property rights against settler appropriation, the right of free movement throughout the country, the destruction of the walls that slice up Israel into pieces. They will also seek a non-sectarian state. Bombings, rocket attacks, and screams of "Death to the Jews" will not attract the sympathy or support of the world. A truly non-violent struggle for civil rights equality will. Today, the Palestinians do not know how to pull off such a movement. But in less than ten years time, they will have figured it out.
Israel will have no peace until it changes its negotiating position with the Arabs. Now, Israel will not negotiate unless the Arabs first recognize Israel's right to exist. The Arabs know that once they make that concession, Israel will have no need to negotiate further, because achieving Arab recognition of its right to exist is Israel's ultimate and only important goal. But Israel is not willing to give up anything to reach this goal. It is not willing to negotiate on anything to reach this goal.
Comparing the relative military strengths of Israel and its enemies, Palestinians and their friends have nothing to negotiate with, other than recognition. Recognition is the only bargaining chip they have. If Israel is not willing to negotiate all other issues, before-and conditioned on-recognition, there will be no negotiations. The stalemate is actually fairly advantageous for Israel. It knows its enemies can not drive it into the sea. It also knows that it need not make any concessions to the Palestinians. So, Israel now has the next best thing to recognition of its right to exist: the power to maintain its existence regardless of what the Arabs think. Ultimately, the issue in ten years will be the nature of the relationship between Israel and the United States. If the US is unable or unwilling to move Israel to a less rigid negotiating position, there really will be a major, violent explosion in the Middle East that will bring unanticipated and unwelcome change.
wow. Looks like Israel recruits lots of guys to comment on CNN articles. great propaganda
Good Job. Good luck with the transition in Syria 
)))
Truth is truth – Im Scot-Irish and Atheist
Mr. Ihab.
Your statement is unfair and quite frankly doesn't even make sense. Rblackbird's comment supports the idea that Israel will one day be faced with protests for equal rights and the like.
What Isreali recruit would admit his country is so unjust to certain ethnic groups as to require revolution to change?
@ Ihab
How much does the PLO pay you to
spout your propaganda ?
rblackbird:
I agree with you. Israel has no option but to be vigilant given that it's in the eye of the storm!
Check out my DETAILED resp to Mr.Zakaria's assertions (April 23rd, 10:08 am), you may agree with me. Let's discuss.
rblackbird- the palestenien nationle dream is the right of return of all 1948 refugees in to israel proper, and as a result-to destroy israel as the nationle state of the jewish people.
most of israelis and all of israeli leadership are in favor of establishing a palestenien state. (including "hardliner" liberman)
all israeli arabs have equel rights(not obligations, as for most iaraeli arabs dont serve in the army, and refuse also non military nationle service). descremination exist as with all minorities- evrywhere in the world, and israeli muslims are much less discriminated then europien muslims. (for example- the head judge of israeli ex presidnt's rape triele, gorge kara- is arab)
and last-
all truly funnctioninig democracies in the world are based on the existence of a strong nationle glu. the only way there will be peace in israel is if there will be two homogenus (as possible) states for two nations- the jewish nation, and for the first arab nation- the palesteniens
israel is as big and important as our words make it, hence the continuous effort by zionists to put it back in the picture here.
Persiangirl also makes a point that is the 800 pound gorrilla for Islam. Womens equality is mandatory for a society to prosper. My old fiends have told me of womens freedoms in the beautiful Pakistan of decades past. There is no honor in oppression of female equality or "Honor Killings" of those females seeking freedom.
The Middle East is a powder keg waiting to explode. Repression of 50% of the population for 100's of years is bound to produce hatred. I do not understand why the women in the Middle East do not SLIT the THROATS of the men! Horrifying mistreatment and downright repression has reduced the worth of women to chattel. The select few who are allowed to be educated are the wealthy who grow up to be the Opressors. There has been so little political discourse that now when everything is blowing up in the faces of these totalitarian regimes, there is no grey area. It is a good vs evil conflict, with those in power being the evil ones who have kept prosperity from the people to further their own greedy lifestyles. But now that the world has the internet and all forms of international communication, it is possible for anyone anywhere who has an internet connection to see what real freedom and real democracy looks like and they want it. They have no way to fit the square peg of Democracy into the round hole of their Religious belief systems. It will be a very long struggle for these countries both oil rich and resource poor to make these changes evolutionary. It is myopic to believe that the Repressors will continue to redirect the hatred and anger of the masses toward Isreal and America.
SalaamuAlaikum, I believe Egypt is wrong for their crucifying (beheading) of believers in the Christ just as they and every Moozhaheed that puts partners with what THE GOD told them to say (Mooslem), not SunniMooslem, ShiaMooslem! These adjectives have put a hex/curse on them till they learn to read! Peace be with the Soldiers, Christians, Jews, Moosems, Converts, Hindus,..Mayans..many paths with a reverency to avoid true Hell & true Severe Punishment (Ch. 73 of the Quraan. *May Peace be with you*
This is not anything from the Koran. Shame on you. Shame on you and whoever spreads lies
we will see what happens in ten years. I think when the oil is gone we will see a democratic trend in the middle east.
When the oils gone look for mass migration from the region on a scale never seen before. Europe will bear the brunt and be changed forever.
Europe already IS feeling the brunt.
Not all Arabs have keys to the Wahabbi coffers ya know
I find this drive in the Middle East towards greater individual self-determination with great hope, but I also understand that this process is fraught with danger for all of us. It is my sincerest belief that we must refrain from interfering in this process. The people of the Middle East MUST choose their own path with as little interference as possible from the western nations.
Why? Because at the end of this, when the citizens of Syria, Egypt and every other country experiencing turmoil look back at the road of change they are now walking down, we need them to know that they paved that road themselves... instead of feeling like the path was laid out for them. If we interfere, go in guns blazing for "freedom", then this whole process would just be seen as a continuation of western imperialism. We must not dictate the terms or outcome, must not force our idea of democracy upon them. They must choose a freedom that suits them for the time and place they are in, taking into account the vast differences in culture between the west and the middle eastern nations and with the understanding that our kind of democratic, secular government would be anathema to many who seek change and freedom. The change that comes, that sense of freedom they will feel, must be genuine for it to be lasting...
I do not agree with your pridection for Saudi Arabia. I think the people there respect king Abdullah as a face of reason & moderation in the Saudi massive royal family but they certainly loath all the princes from the next generation. As the Egyptian hated Gamal Mubarak. As soon as king Abdullah dies which could be soon (he is a sick 86 years old man) the people will look around them & see freedom in Egypt, Tunsia, Lybia, Yemen & Syria they will not accept the 3rd generation of Adbel Aziz Ben Saud to continue ruling their land & embezzle their Oil revenues. I can not see any future for this family after the current generation.
It is interesting how Israel was not mentioned in your assessment of a 2021 Middle East.
why would it ??? Is it a must ??? a homework ??? a daily diet ??? Lets focus on the beauty of Egypt
))
Maybe because it's the strongest, wealthiest, most modern country in the region?
@Kbmin : Nice propaganda. congratulations
Which part is false? Perhaps Saudi Arabia has more money but most of that is controlled by the royal family. The average standard of living is higher in Israel. Of course if you hate Jews.....
He (or She) is correct however much you disagree.
Look what Israel has done with a basically unwanted plot of desert in 63 years.
I saw no Palestinians fighting for it back in 1947. It was not until it started becoming successful, the Mullahs got nervous about losing control of their own "flock" to the wonderment of a hard-working and innovative society that tensions got really severe.
Before then Arab and Jew alike lived in relative peace for thousands of years in the region.
Turn off the "news" and follow your heart.
Whats the matter Ihab ?
Forget to beat your wife this morning ?
Gary:
You are absolutely right!
For good or bad....no analysis is complete w/o discussing Israel.
Check out my DETAILED resp to Mr.Zakaria's assertions (April 23rd, 10:08 am). Let's discuss.
Let me guess: the middle east will be "on the verge of exploding", it will be America's fault, yadda, yadda, yadda...
Not America's fault alone, but we have a hand in it – indeed.
All you have to do is go back and read George W Bush on the 10 year prodiction for the Middle East. He prediticted that Democracy would be sweeping the Middle East within 10 years. I don't hear a lot credit given to blood, sweat, tears and treasury we gave in Iraq to stimulate the sweeping change in the Middle East that has the potential to bring peace and stability to such a unpredictable part of the world.
The ADHD society never remembers a thing.
Takes away from Warcraft and Xbox dominations.
Zakaria is pushing the exact same point of view that W had in starting the Iraq war. May work out. May not. It is a nice theory though.
"Those are my thoughts." – So he thinks Eygpt may look like Indonesia and the rest of the Mideast will look "significantly different". Deep thinker that Fareed.
Blanket criticisms without further ideas are useless to all.
A child can derail an idea – it takes maturity to develop true discussions.
Yours was not close in this case.
Good summary - you're more often right than wrong, so this is heartening to read. Could you do a follow up column on what this might mean for Israel? I am concerned that Netanyahu & co are stuck in hardliner mode, Hamas is stuck in hardliner mode, and both seem defiant/dismissive toward the need to negotiate (and make REAL concessions) toward a two-state solution.
America in one year- food riots.
Care to add ANYTHING to support this proposal of your favorite movie?
Really? We produce half the world's exportable wheat and soybeans and two-thirds of the traded corn even while producing 12 billion gallons of ethanol. Ridiculous comment.
...would be true except for the fact that some of these leaders aren't looking 10 years into the future, rather, they are looking at creating this bogus nightmare apocalyptic reality because Muhammad said so. Nice God-work, Mo.
I am from Lebanon. Born Christian but I am currently atheist. The problem comes down to educating people. People will become less religious, less scared from the unknown. Then the change will come from within. The biggest problem with the US policy is forcing democracy on uneducated religious people instead of spending this money on promoting education. The problem in our country is education as well. Education will make people conscious and evolution will follow naturally.
Nailed it! The reason why there are all these extremists running around the Middle East is because of the low quality of education there. It really doesn't matter what religious background you are, if you are uneducated, the only way you know of solving your problems is violence.
State sponsored education has a problem.
For example, in Germany, a law was established that made it a criminal offense to homeschool your own children.
This was done to ensure the proper indoctrination of the youth. It sounds like a pretty good idea until you
realize who enacted the law. It was established in 1938 by Audolph Hitler. It was very effective.
Many organization sprang from it like the Hitler youth, etc. Germany still enforces this same law today.
Most of the highly educated people in the Middle East were only worst Talibaen and Al -Queda terrorists. Your current Leader Hassan Nassarullah is a P.h.D (doctarate) holder in Mechanical Engineering.
Jad:
You are right. It's UNREALISTIC to shove democracy down the throats of people who never understand its meaning and are never used to living with such freedoms.
Check out my DETAILED resp to Mr.Zakaria's assertions (April 23rd, 10:08 am). I believe you will agree with me. Anyway's let's discuss.
Zakaria has not mentioned the obvious conclusion about mid-east Democracy.
The model the region will follow will be the same as that for Iran after the Shah was gone.
Once the mid-east dictators are thrown out of power, and Democracy is established, it will be short lived.
It all comes to an abrupt hault after the first vote when the islamic parties win solid victories, and the mullahs take power.
Then it will be dictatorship again, but from a far more repressive direction.
There can be no good end to this.
Yes, we all understand you fear change Rod.
Change is the only constant. Read much?
Ever?
Zakaria, I agree with most of the comments but still i want to shed light on another issue. You did not mention about the possibility of emerging a new independent state. Do not you think there is a strong possibility that the Kurds in Iraq will be independent within the next ten years?
Who would recognize Kudistan ?
It should be an independent country, but does Turkey want that ?
Do the other mid-east states want that ?
Would America want that ? ( Americans would welcome it, but not our leaders, to much oil at stake )
I don't know where Mr. Zakaria gets his news from but apparently he is not really in touch with the Islamic extremism movement (funded by Saudi Arabia) that will turn Egypt and a few other countries into other Afghanistans!
@ The Truth. No chance. Egypt is far too liberal leaning and westernized to go the route of Afganistan.
The Truth:
I totally agree with you!
Check out my DETAILED resp to Mr.Zakaria's assertions (April 23rd, 10:08 am). I believe you will agree with me.
Let's discuss.
I'm thinking one could have change in the oil countries as well. After all, look at Libya! they produce a ton of oil for Europe, and Gadaffi's regime, though not gone, certainly will never recover. I think it depends on the people, not the wealth of the dictator. As far as those who think the middle east "can't handle democracy", I say that this is the same paternalism people applied to Africa during its colonization. People of the Middle East are humans the same as us, and can have the same cognitive abilities. They can look to the example Iran has set, and avoid that future, knowing that it will lead to the same oppression. They can look at Afghanistan and Pakistan, and see the folly of an overtly fundamentalist government. If Islamic parties are voted in, they will likely be on the level of the Muslim Brotherhood, which no more desires a Jihad than European Catholic parties desire an Inquisition.
Have you ever read a standardized USA geological trade energy report?
I really didn't think so.
To the US, Turkey does not factor in even an iota.
Pulling "facts" out of your a$$ doesn't make it true. This is the problem with the ADHD state of humanity now a days. People parrot others' BELIEFS rather than study facts and seek the truths.
It sure does factor in; ask Hillary
My apologies – the above reply was meant for Rod – 2 stories up
Richie:
Unfortunately, religion plays a dominant role in the ME, and so we can't compare the Msulim world with others.
Check out my DETAILED resp to Mr.Zakaria's assertions (April 23rd, 10:08 am).
Let's discuss.
to Richie,let me give you some updates on what's happening in Egypt for Example:
Christians are being attacked in their homes in different areas by Muslims (not by Extremists), by regular Muslims. They have burned their homes, stole their properties, ruined their businesses. All that, in the name of Islam. Again I am talking about people like me and you, not by organized groups. And to add to that, it's all happening front of the military and Police, and they are just watching! Of course our hypocritical media will not allow for such news to be exposed!
The Truth. is a false truth. ie full of cr*p!
Please tell me how do you know of these crimes ?
People hate and kill each for far less than what you suggest.
Try looking in your own neighborhood before attempting to understand things you have never witnessed firsthand.
This is where peace starts – at home.
We must all be pretty stupid to not have seen first hand whats going on all around us as you claim.
You came nowhere near answering my question.
Janty –
I was replying to "TheTruth" but now you see the polarization we all suffer.
You think it is all about you – just as he does
And I'm telling you all that this is a tragedy. These countries will fall to extremiest and muslim fanatics and the west will suffer greatly in the next ten years.
Ask america, why did you favor the ousting of mr mubarak or why do you support the rebels in libiya, don't you see that coming back and bite you in the rear end ? Why do we make that mistake time after time.
These people have one solution to them and that is mubarak, gadahffi, sadam hussein, etc
Israel will not have any problems in the future, nothing will change the status quo.
As for Egypt, I beg to differ. As an Egyptian, I am telling you, removing Mubarak was a HUGE mistake. Country will slowly move into an Islamic rule, the economic problems can't and will not be resolved, simply because Mubarak was not fully responsible for them. Don't forget that Egypt was a full democracy in 30's-52 and back then cabinets were changing every six months.
Through out its history, Egypt was a success story during the reign on dictators. Ramsis during ancient times, Mohamed Ali Pasha and Anwar Sadat, democracy will not work in Egypt, it hasn't in the past & will not work in the future. Egypt is going to be the new Iraq. On the other hand, watch the Cuban transformation, this is going to be a huge success story in the near future, just like China is in the present.
China is doing great with the Wests' assistance.
All things are temporary and the Chinese people will begin to demand more from their government. When the freedoms they crave do not emerge, China will implode upon itself.
Watch and see.
I recently visited China. In two weeks I travelled to many cities of various sizes.
I was amazed at the pace they are developing. You're right. The government will have to manage itself very carefully and change in a way to allow people more freedoms and movement.
Shenzen (near HK) is amazing.
We will all be fortunate AS HUMANS if we are all still here in 10 months.
I mean here is all these people with the freedom to REALLY talk and halk cannot do anything but call people silly childish names and point at the "other side" to assess blame.
Bring it on as I am sick of the current state of anger – all over the planet.
Until we ALL learn to work together, what are we really working towards for future generations.
LOOK INWARD. We all have common desires – do not let extremists of ANY religion dictate your hearts.
Our differences are so tiny compared to our similarities as HUMAN BEINGS.
I agree 10 years. The connected and educated youth of these countries will make the difference from the past.
At the end of the day we all want the same thing. An opportunity to do better in life, and provide for our families, and live in safety and peace.
all thats happening in the middle east is normal and is leading to something good isa
and the so called leaders get richer.
Why? Because we allow it to happen with petty bickering and insults to people we cant even get to know before these "leaders" shove a gun or bomb-belt upon us to kill them for their own gains.
If we are to continue as slaves to the greedy 1%, we might as well all die in a nuclear holocaust and be done with it.
who cares what happens in 10 years...the world is gonna end in 2012
Corn does not shuck itself. The world will not kill us ...we will kill the world and ourselves with it.
What the Hey – Where's the Burqa???
it is invisible just like truth
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4HPdWYwgyw&w=480&h=390%5D
Zakaria is no journalist. He never says anything that isn't already obvious to everyone else. His so-called "predictions" are worthless. I'm a retired journalist and I have seen people taken in by this fake spiel before.
Very true – This is a BS'er from way back!
Good article Fareed; I wonder where Iran will end up in a few years?
ok , great article, very diplomatically correct as in W ARE not going to offend anyone here etc hakuna matata. and in the end it is hakuna matata thing. i think primaly it is a concern of people's lives not th political interests, that have reigned in region with ups and downs slowly poisoning everyone's lives. pretty spooky.
noone can and should predict the future especially when it comes to orient and particularly to middle east. i say there be lots of surprises coming up and may god forbid there be innocent souls lose.
things ll settle down and inchallah everyone will have basic grounds of humane existence.
as for israel, whether some hope it vanishes from earth's face, it is still there and will be. maybe in different way as in giudea and israel yet it will be. people are facing far more serious troubles there. constant fright from both unknowning whats going to happen and whether government is playing the right card. corruption is no longer a novice nor a danger. one cant fight it, especially whereas a lots of money. it is unfair to judge a nation on their government's propaganda. most of the people are sick and tired of brainwash, read Gideon Levy and you will see.
btw the israeli singer Rita is of Iranian descent , just like Ofra Haza , Dana international from Yemen, Ishtar from Morocco and Egypt and etc. the known art figures are from arab origin, so what? is this a secret campaign? no , it s life. hug to all, inchallah all ur dreams come true and happiness will reign over the world and middle east.
LOVE REIGNS OVER THE WORLD- MONEY OVER WEAK PEOPLE
A little mistake in comparing Indonesia and Egypt: Indonesia is an oli producer. Not big, but is still oil that produces revenues.
Fareed is an Idiot
Please refresh my memory..I believe these are the bas(*&ds that want to wipe the USA of the face of this earth. They want kill all Christians simply because they are Christians ut they have no difficulty worshipping a recorded child molester. The quicker they are eliminated the better.....
i really wouldn't look to indonesia for any sort of model. it has become far more extreme–in terms of both its population, its government, and its various terrorist groups–in recent years than it was even ten years ago. it is very difficult to do business in the country, it was hit hard by the recession, and literacy rates are -declining- there. one of its largest provinces, aceh, recently implemented shariah law with predictably disastrous results. if egypt is looking for a "muslim role model", it should look to turkey instead. turkey has huge problems as well, but it's vastly more stable than indonesia.
unfortunately, i doubt that will happen. egypt is a poor, fundamental-islam-driven society with an illiteracy rate hovering around 33%. i can easily see it (but not tunisia) going the way of iran, with strict religious law ruling the country. but i hope it doesn't, for everyone's sake.
i don't always agree with Fareed Zakaria, but i always found his comments interesting, until now. this little piece isn't worthy of his bi-line. he must be on vacation, because he obviously phoned this one in. the future of the middle east cannot be discussed without discussing the half of the population that lives in near slavery- the women. show me a country that values the contributions of all of it's members and i'll show you a country with some semblence of a future.
discussing the middle east without discussing what happens in iran (an outside player–yes i know) is also useless. syria...hmmm...yeah, kind of important in the discussion too. how about jordan? if the king is assassinated the size of palestine just quadruples overnight. how many days/weeks/years before that happens? how does that play out? come on man, give us a real thoughtful discussion. you can do better than this!
As long as the arab leaders, schools and mosques won't stop teaching their children to blow themselves up to kill innocent people there will not be peace in any of the arab countries.
clap clap. agree
huhhhhe >>>> funny
PP
who is the mad told u zt ..... our schools and mosques tell us 2 kill christians !!!!!!!! really mad
okay ........ it is seemed that u don't knw any thing about islam or muslems ,,,, i wanna 2 tell u small something
there is 5 million christians n egypt .... we save them like our brothers and that was clear n days of revolution " if u knw any thing abt it " soo be far abt them .. and if u really wanna 2 help boor christians ,,,, blame isreal about her mistakes agianst them in palastine
you speak like jar jar binks
Who the Fu ck is "Zakaria"?
Is he the weather-man on CNN?
And could we please have the names of everyone who according to himself has written to him and "asked for his predictions"?
What a joke.
is it a new way of dating- posting on cnn?lol
dont forget to vote for Dana who ll represent Israel for eurovision
It's nice to have dreams. The only democracy in the middle east is israel. Each time a dictator falls in the middle east another corrupt idiot comes to power. Granted Egypt has the best chance of breaking this trend, but I'll believe it when I see it. My prediction, hello Muslim brotherhood aka religious fanatic terrorists.
clearly you are just saying that because your jewish, if your gonna be so rude and biased just keep it to yourself
Everybody seems to be looking at Midlde East. There are more dangerous zones here itself. Will you walk through queens , NY in the evening or drive through cleveland central...No and why Not? THINK!!
These areas are more volatile than the Middle East!!
You forgot about the man, Biatch. The big nuke, the asteroid that popped the dinosaurs into extinction. The middle east will be what America wants it to be. If we want free nations with free trade so we can feed our consumerism population of sheep then we will have just that in the middle east. The man controls all of you little lambs.
Iraq, for example, had been ruled by a dictator that refused to abide by international law. The Man decided Iraq should be democratic nation ruled by constitutional law. The man owns YOU.
Peace in the middle east? I don't think so. Not 1,000 years ago, not 10 years from now, accept never. I am a christian but I don't let those in prominent positions tell me what to think or how to act. I take the good and I toss out the bad. I treat people as I want to be treated. You can't teach hate or intolerance and expect that the middle east or anywhere else in the world will improve. Are there muslims who do the same as I do with my religion? I'm sure there are those that reject the extreme and abide by the good. As for the US and it's position in world politics, we aren't perfect and our leaders sometimes make bad decisions but I think over the 200+ years of it's existence the US has done more to promote peace, prosperity, freedom, and human rights than any other country in the world. We're in debt up to our eyeballs but we're still the most generous people on earth when others are in need. Enough said, there are good people everywhere but good will never overcome evil in the middle east. It just ain't gonna happen.
Of course the U.S. promotes peace, which leads to prosperity. Peace is an essential aspect of capitalism. Peace is only promoted because it serves American interests. The native American people were wiped out in the name of peace. There was too much conflict over valuable land with them around. Genocide was committed. Men were dragged from their home and enslaved by the government to promote prosperity. Indeed the government does promote prosperity... its own prosperity. America was founded upon bloodshed, slavery and bigotry, among other cruel aspects of humanism. The world wars were the only righteous aspects of this empires' existence. Soon after, the government would remove helpless indigenous people from their island to test powerful tools of destruction... castle bravo. The government also conducted human experimentation on minority people.The people they used were weak and defenceless... just like our enemy today. You are a lamb. You probably believe that you live in a Democracy with elected officials. y
You live in an oligarchy where the rich use their power to put "politicians" or puppets in office. You should study our political and economic systems.
Don't misinterpret my statements... I can't stand Muslims and their revolution won't change the fact that they are barbarians. Even god said to his sons of Israel not to mate with the neighbouring tribes. They are no different than they were thousands of years ago. Muhammad is a false prophet who bangs other men. He is a symbol of barbarism.
Sad, but true. There's too much apathy in America and that's the way the government likes it. The dumber the citizens, the better for the government and those who pay the politicians. WAKE UP people and smell the coffee. Stop being taken by liars and thieves; for the people, by the people is what it's SUPPOSED to be, but it's not. It's the politicians that are not following the Constitution. Citizens worldwide demonstrate for what they believe while we sit back and get knocked out in the ring.
This is a very good and reasonable prediction from someone who's taken time to listen and learn about what's happening in this region. Once again FZ shows much more depth and piecing together relevant facts and predictions than most of the other national journalists who just want to hyperventilate over whichever way the stronger winds are blowing today.
"Kinder, gentler monarchies" what BS. They are only "kinder and gentler" if you don't question the "rights" of the "royal" families to all the oil wealth. If you do question too loudly you disappear. What's "gentle or kind" about that? These so called royal families hold billions of dollars in personal wealth and it's still not enough. The families still vie for even more money an power while significant proportions of the population just get by. The time of "kings" and royalty is long past. The people are waking up. If these monarchs are really enlightened they must lead the way toward democracy and give the money they have stolen back to the people. Do you see that happening in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman or Libya?
I just hope it glows in the dark and as far as Islam goes it is a killer cult started by a Psychotic and should be wiped from the face of the earth.
Fareed
I think that u mighg be right in your predictions but we also have to take in consideration the kind of revolutions that these are. We are living in a world where the development of system of mass comunication and the way that ideas are spread and how the evolution of those ideas impact mainly in the youth of each and every country is allowing the emergence of new waves of change. The social relatoon between people is changing and is going to keep changing. We, from my humble point of view, cannot always refer to the past to evaluate how changes are going to take place. We are witnessing an evolutionary process that had never happened before intense wise. I think that the world as a whole is tending to be more even with certain pockets of radicalism but I think that the countries that are not oil rich.and those who are, eventualy are going to converge in a more equal system for its people. Common sense at the end of the day will prevail and open political systems are going to be much more open and offer more equal possibilities to their people. Thank you for your analysis. Always very thoughtful.
I have many things to say and many differences between the two countries, but the 2010 GDP (ppp) per capita in egypt is 6200$ and in Indonesia its 4,200 so in 10 years Egypt should be MUCH better off!
Sorry but I see a future world where there are no Christians or Jews, etc but only Shia and Sunni and once they fight to the end for there can only be one, there will be none......
I wonder if the snipers are strangers to themselves
The motherland of Middle East dictatorship is the Islamic Republic of Iran. When they fall call the Middle East a new Middle East. And guys, its no longer about religion anymore. It's economic.
Funny, I fail to see any mention of the dwindling supply of oil and its effect. In 30 years I have no doubt that at least 40-50 percent of the worlds oil use will be transitioned into alternatives. Now, the world will still depend on oil but the price will be very high by then due to high demand and lower output with multiple super economies jockeying for position. Assuming the conditions are similar to what they are today and growths pan out to current predictions. I also feel by then that countries holding out on their own natural supplies (the US) will have already started setting up their own drilling/shipping/processing facilities leading to less and less profits for the middle east. What will be the economic stabilizer in the region? Thirty years is really reaching nowadays. 1981 was 30 years ago from this year. Could you imagine someone then predicting what kind of life they would live in 30 years? Or what the geopolitical situation would be like for that matter.
Fareed Zakaria is one of the most astute observers of mid east politics, but I think he's wrong on this one. Firstly, Saudi Arabia uses massive repression not just bribery as he notes to control its population. I agree that this country will in the final analysis go through an evolutionary process of change, if only because of the country's ability to share more of its wealth with ordinary citizens. However, when it comes to Egypt the challenges and risks are huge. It is very difficult to see any structural change occuring in that country depite what appears to be huge changes in leadership taking place. This is because of uncertainties over the army's role, and that of the Muslim Brotherhood. There is potential for more violence as many of the rights essential to build a civil society have not been granted. Take women for example. Their role and rights seem to have actually diminished over time. Furthermore, political prisoners are still held by the Army and a bizarre alliance seems to have come to life between the military and the Muslim brotherhood, at the expense of liberal forces in the country. Egyptians may yet find themselves trading one form of dictatorship for another.
Most of the respondents here typify the problem in the Muslim world, always blaming others for their wrong and corrupt societies. Israel is one of the smallest countries in the world in terms of population and geography with no diplomatic ties to 55 of the Islamic countries. Hence Israel has nothing to do with what is going on in the Muslim countries. This is simply as a result of the greater knowledge of the world that is now available through the internet and easily accessible to all. People can see how others are treated and live relative to their state. They realize that they have been feed lies and the extent of the corruption.
However, even if the Governments change until the culture transforms little progress will occur. In Islamic countries 90% of all minorities have evaporated over the past 100 years. Simply Islamic countries are the least tolerant. This intolerance creates little acceptance of free thinking and many who disagree are treated harshly. This culture of intolerance that has made minorities not able to coexist in Islamic countries will not allow the flourishing of ideas that can improve their countries.
In the middle east, I see two extremely opposite cultures. A lot of the kids are westernized, wearing jnco jeans and have ipods. This really really really is the opposite of the other population. Up untill about 30 years ago, there were one of the more homogonous populations in the world. When we think about the cultural changes that have taken place in our country over TWO HUNDRED years, coming from a less homogenized culture, and try to compress that into 30 years, this can give you insight into what is going on over there. Our culture today has many, many different facets. Again, there's has two, and they are polar opposites. WHAT is going to happen when they run out of oil? They are not making it right now, they should be rich.
We are almost bankrupt and should act like a bankrupt nation instead of acting like a meddling power of the world. Get our own house in order first and put the fires out at home before getting busy putting tax payers money to putting out fires and starting new fires overseas throughout the world. We should get out of the middle east and let them settle their own problems. Middle east is a hell hole and will keep burning in fire for another 100 years. We should get self sufficient in energy by producing at home.
The author hit the nail on the head.Oil rich countries countries do bribe their citizens.In Kuwait for example,the citizens receive food allowances,jobs & houses etc. every month.There will never be an uprising until the day their oil runs out and the government is not able to provide the people with all the benefits they have been accustomed to for so many years.
that's what happens in any nation that has given to its citizens, and then taken away... example the social perks given to Greek citizens and now cut back one by one; same will happen here if welfare/medicare/medicaid is cut back after enjoying it. Solution should be to be more selective to new people getting the benefits so they don't get used to a system that essentially will not work
I can say that the whole region is going to a massive war to re-shape the new world ! and the flame will start from Yemen or Gulf or South lebanon..
It is far too superficial to view oil riches as the dividing line between countries of the middle east. Factors that can play into the destiny of countries in this part of the world are so many and far too diverse for anyone to really accurately project where these countries will end up in a few years time. Things like population size, country resources, level of impoverishment, neighbouring countries, historic roles for the country, number of respectable universities in the country, cultural make up, and ethnic homogeneity will all play out major and crucial roles.
In particular, comparing egypt to indonesia is most disappointing. The differences are so striking between both countries. Egypt is a country about to embark upon democracy after a historic medling with democratic concepts, ideals, and autonomies from even before the date of colonizations. Egypt has institutions and laws that are well founded and could be relied upon in steering the country safely. The least testament to these is the recent investigations into mubarak and his families' wealth and corruption by the institutions and people that he himself had ruled so recently. Factor that in with the immense potentials of an already flourishing tourism with even far greater potential, the presence of fundemantal resources spread across the country, a strategic position that could potentially render it the trade hub of this part of the world and the greatest link between Europe, Africa, and Asia. Add in the cheap labor that is the hallmark of the country at the present time, and gives it the best chances to get built so fast..... and you have the equation for a country skyrocketing into the 21st century.
Yes, I am extremely optimistic. But as an arab I tell you this..... After the cedar revolution was quenched in my country, lebanon, I had a feeling that change in this part of the world is at once impossible and unreal. Looking now towards egypt and tunisia, I feel a shimmer of hope for a rekindled Arab pride. That is the same feeling that everyone else has in this part of the world. Be it in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, or anywhere else in the arab world, that glimpse of a prosperous future can drive us towards the impossible and the unreal. Do not take that away from us.
Big fan of Zakaria, must say. I think dichotomizing the regional developments in term of bribery/repression is a very bright way to look at it. I wish I could say I have some insightful thoughts to add, but hopefully uprisings in the more repressed nations lead to more democratic governance. Channeling the productive capacity and energy of their people towards collectively agreed upon goals without needing to shut down large swaths of the population would definitely help any of them take strides towards some more unified picture of the future. Does that make sense? Uhhhh....
A change to democracy without secularism is not an improvement and can even be a big step backwards. Take a look at democracy in the Palestinian territories or the political system of Iran, in which the President is democratically elected. A wise, benevolent and modern Sheikh is far preferable to a backward, non-secular democratically elected government. A non-secular democracy is in reality a theocracy.
Saudi Arabia can become a strong country in the region provided, the system will be built on honest and transparent,people welfare oriented approach.Egypt with its resourses and intellectual power, can become like lebanon which did well untill some external interference.Whether oil or non oil dependent nations,each nation can progress to something of its own, provided they are focussed on the funamental principals of humanity,honest and transparent system that cares for the welfare of its people by providing good education,jobs and agriculture.Most important is non interference with other nations-good foriegn policy.Israel can become a regional Guru provided the Arab nations treat and embrace independent Israel as a friendly nation rather than an enemy,becoz of its distinct history and the intellectual power.Not least is the right spiritual guidence and secularism.For any Democratic country to prosper,people should learn to go by right or wrong and perform their duties ,not only claim their rights.
Thank you Fareed for your assessment.I am anEgyptian who participated in th rovloution and who exposed to death so may be my opinion is biased. With all respect to Indonesia I believe that Egyptians will be able to create their model and that we will be on a much better position than what do you expect. Before the revolution, many Egyptians were working alone but now we are working in large groups searching for synergies and building on each other. I believe that the positive attitude and the team work will move us to a very advanced place. I dream to have one of Egyptian ubiversities in the list of of top 500 and to live on a duble our space in 10 years and I believe that we can reach the Turkey economic success.
Monarchies do not become nicer as time moves on. They either die, become furniture or rule stricture. Since all people are inherently evil, they will lean back on what they know best, evil, when they are confronted. With this stated the opposite course of action will take place with the rich countries, they will become the centers of violence, if they are not already.
Skuxxlenut:
You are absolutely right.
Forget about absolute monarchies like teh Saudiis' even merely symbolic constitutional monarchies like the one's in UK, rest of Europe, Thailand, Japan, Nepal, are under fire.
Check out my DETAILED resp to Mr.Zakaria's assertions (April 23rd, 10:08 am) below.
Let's discuss.
With all due respect to Fareed Zakaria, it would be easier to ask one living in 1911 to predict the future of the USA one hundred years out than to predict the future of the Middle East just ten years from now.
Of course, unless one has been living under a rock should know this guy Zakaria usually comes across hitting the nail on head with a sledgehammer.
In my humble opinion he is correct with Saudi Arabia being the 800 pound gorilla, not Israel. Israel is only the 400 pound gorilla... wake up folks.
What i think can be a big step forwards if all the middle east make a single currancy like euro in europ!
I like how Farid mentions the Arab countries that dont produce oil. Obviously the western influence is only limited to countires like the US and France and GB only solving humanitarian crisises. Being from Bangladesh i cant really imagine arab countries that dont produce oil. Obviously the humanitarian crisis, comes from the repression that Farid mentions. But at the heart of it all, these are the real Arab countries without the Western Oil crisis. Let Democracy find its path, even though the path is meandering. No oil, no western influence interms of bribery.
Fareed as usual caters to the Zionist school of doomed analysis. The Muslim world now numbers close to 2 BILLION very young, increasingly educated and very angry people who have been colonized, demonized and ripped off by neo-imperialist west (which itself is headed for socio-economic oblivion as power shifts to Asia) and run by corrupt and out of touch governments like the rotten House of Saud who have western backing. The imposition of unsustainable Zionist cancer in Palestine has only made matters worse. The fact is that almost all "predictions" about the largely Islamic Asia Minor (Middle-East is a misnomer) have proved false over the years. The future will be shaped by powerful nations like Iran, Turkey and perhaps Egypt if it shakes off US shackles. Time will tell but don't hold yoour breath about Fareed's sophomoric made for CNN/FOX future predictions and chai khaneh (tea house) gossip.
The middle east is on the path to a Khalifa and is become more fundamentally inclined and turning more toward Islam. That Zakaria denies this is strange. Either he is a complete moron, or he has a more pernicious agenda.
The idea of an 10th century pre technological Islamic caliphate may make ignorant Muslims feel better psychologically but it will lead to deeper and deeper poverty because it will not be able to provide enough good jobs to support for the massive population of the Caliphate.
The Caliphate will also trigger non ceasing conflicts and wars between various nationalities and tribes in the Arab world
Joe13:
Unlike what he said Mr. Zakaria is smart, highly educated, influential, but is NOT NAIVE!
Check out my DETAILED resp to Mr.Zakaria's assertions (April 23rd, 10:08 am) below.
Let's discuss.
who's this guy trying to kid. in 10 years everything will be the same with different faces running the show having their strings pulled by grumpy old bearded men who talk to god on a walkie talkie. that entire region isnt going anywhere till they stop marrying their girl children off to their first cousins so they're all inbred, wasting 1/2 the day praying to nonexistent things for nonexistant things, and the other half of the day engaging in martyrdom operations. nothing in this region will change till they stop acting like it's still 800AD.
I have yet to find many examples of where Zakaria has proven in the past that he actually knows what he's talking about, so I wouldn't pay much serious attention to his latest prognostications. He's nothing more than a self-important, self-styled Expert on Everything who really knows very little about very little. Go back & read his columns on Iraq from 2004 to 2007, for example...
my thoughts are in line with yours in almost all cases except Saudi Arabia(SA). Actually, I think SA will not make it through as a one country in 10 years. There is no succession plan for roles, and you have more than 10 thousand princes fighting with each other over power. The level of income is coming down and people becoming poorer and poorer. Plus, SA population include highly educated people in prisons while the religious party has the power over media, education, justice system, and many other governmental agencies. I can assure you that this party is smallest, but the most influential party. Plus, you have Shia in the eastern province lying on the sources of oil and the less share of wealth. Add to that the unrest in Bahrain where most that concern Shia in the eastern province of SA. If the unrest continues in Bahrain, the unrest will reach the eastern province of SA. In fact, there are still small scale protest in eastern province powered by what is happening in Bahrain.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Middle East In 10 years will probably have a Caliphate and will attack Israel, the only true democracy in the ME bar none.
Farid, what were you to say if Syria, as a state, disintegrated, and numerous states arose in its place? You recently wrote an article saying that this is what is happening in Libya...you didn't view it as a bad thing. Now, I ask you, what happens if that happens in Syrai?
My experience in the middle east was the discovery that if you want to understand the middle east, you must understand Israel and Palestine. Zakaria doesn't seem put either into his equation and i feel that this can't be brushes aside.
I do like his article though even though I think that Saudi Arabia is already using heavy military force. They have proved that they do more than simply buy their citizen's co operation with money. They were very quick to send troops and equipment next door for example....just to provide a firewall between them and their neighbors who are raising up and wanting peace.
This middle east awakening and this story has not even begun yet.
I believe that this could be the start of world war three and no one even knows that yet. Perhaps a bit gloomy but the big players haven't stepped into the ring yet.
There is one axiom in this world.
Energy drives everything.
Huge opportunities will be available to any powerful country that can step in to fill the space.
Someone always has.
The problems in the Arab nations are almost entirely a product of a massive population explosion, and the utter inability of any government there to provide enough jobs for the younger generation. You can blame dictators or Israel for the plight of the Arabs but in fact it is an entirely predictable result of demographics. Arab nations should start a China like program of birth control or they will sink deeper and deeper into poverty and ignorance. The smartest young people are leaving the Arab countries for the West which only worsens the problems.
I suggest a rapprochement between Arabs and Israel since the Jews have many skills and aptitudes in science and technology that will be extremely useful for the advancement of the entire Middle East. It is one way to stimulate the economies of many Arab nations and increase the available skilled and technological jobs for the younger generation.
Mr. Zakaria,
I kind of agreeing with some of what u said, Look at Germany and Japan, both came very strong economically and democratically after WW2, u mentioned Endonisia as a model for Egypt to follow, or the turkish example for democratic and economic advances.
I'm Christian from Egypt, the strong Religious and islamic fundamental mentality and extremist radical views in life together with intolerance to others even the libral muslims, not to mention there intolerence to the western Ideas and to Christians in general will destroy the economy and will kill the Tourism and foreign investiment. Yes the people who started the revolution againist Mubarak and his regim was mostly young saccular, because the the Islamic Brotherhood and the Salafi groups was afraid , but once the revolution succeded, they took over. Religion is a very sensitive and appealing factor in determining who will be in charge in Egypt. With 40% of the population is illeterate and 80% are ignorant politically , then it is very easy to controll them by the extremist groups. I hate to say, But I can assure u and remember my words Egypt is going in a dark tunnel of poverty ,religious clensing and extremist controlling every way of life. Most egyptians now are asking for a government with a Religious islamic bases
I noted no mention of the role of the U.S.. I hope this was intended and not an oversight. We are a debtor nation with lots of serious problems, so it doesn't make sense for us to keep doling out money to corrupt governments that don't like us anyway. We need to get out of the Middle East completely and let the countries of the region, including Israel, determine their own destinies. My forecast is that they will continue to fight internally and with each other, as they have for thousands of years. Nothing we or any western nation can do has ever changed that and never will.
Fareed
enjoy your show. You are probably correct in your analysis. Syria might have the toughest road due to violence. Saudi Arabia will likely be slower but over time might evolve towards democracy after the remaining Middle Eastern countries have changed. Good luck to them all.
Once again my former countryman and our ISLAMIC SYMPATHIZER Mr. FAREED ZAKARIA proves my point that I have written about quite extensively now. He almost sounds like a SOOTHE SAYER spewing out HIS ROSY ISLAMIC PROPHECIES to GULLIBLE AMERICANS!!!
WHAT Mr.ZAKARIA WILL NEVER FAIL TO DO:
(a) Continue to put a SOFT FACE on Islamic radicalism in his ONGOING QUEST to sell Islam.
(b) Continue to urge already magnanimous Americans to be even more tolerant and understanding of Muslims, open the doors for greater Muslim migration, EMBRACE Muslim Turkey into the European Union (in the garb of building bridges with the Muslim world, but in reality opening the doors for MASS MUSLIM migration into EU & America to alter their dominant Christian ethos for ever!), and allow building of even more MEGA mosques (like the 53,000 sq.ft. Mosque for 200 Muslim families in Murfreesboro, the ground zero VICTORY Mosque APTLY named CARDOBA in memory of the Muslim conquest of Spain & the demolishing of a magnificent Church to build a Mega Mosque – Any similarities here!?!).
(c) Even greater freedoms for Muslims including in allowing them to wearing the burka & lenient security checks at a/ps (impacting the nation’s security), and praying rights at work places, halal meat etc. (adding to the already inefficient American industry), greater understanding of Muslim student’s sentiments at schools, public places etc. including ASTOUNDINGLY opposition to the display of CHRISTMAS TREES, or PRAYING IN THE NAME OF GOD etc. (to ensure that Islamic way of life becomes more mainstream to dent our dominant Christian ethos). etc. etc.
WHAT Mr.ZAKARIA WILL NEVER TALK ABOUT:
(a)The PLIGHT OF THE HELPLESS FAST VANISHING MINORITY CHRISTIANS & others who have lived for 1000’s of years in these UNFORTUNTATE Muslim nations. These include basic human rights such as a quiet/peaceful place to pray, stoppage of demolition of their Churches/Temples etc., elimination of one-sided BLASPHEMY laws, unfair taxes, basic human dignity & security. (Who knows he may take some cue here, and pay SOME LIP SERVICE going forward!).
(b)While doing PR work on behalf of these so-called Muslim democracies, many of which are democratic and MORE IMPORTANTLY SECULAR ONLY ON PAPER, with brute Muslim majorities making it IMPOSSIBLE to vent minority grievances (which Mr. Zakaria talks about).
Etc. etc.
WHILE KEEPING THE ABOVE IN PERSPECTIVE, here are some notable quotes from Mr. Zakaria’s PROPHECIES in his own words with some of the CATCHY WORDS capitalized and WITHIN BRACKETS my words that Mr. ZAKARIA CONVENIENTLY FORGOT!!!. (Readers please note!):
1)” A number of you have been asking me on Facebook, Twitter and iReport about “MY PREDICTIONS” for the Middle East ten years down the line. (Sounds like a SOOTHE SAYER to me!)
2)” The big caveat, however, is that the Middle East is not (CHRISTIAN) Eastern Europe. So change will not happen on the scale or with the speed and scope that it happened in Europe.
3)”The Middle East governments have used two methods of control – MASS REPRESSION and MASS BRIBERY.” (ALLUDING to OVERT & COVERT US support for middle eastern dictatorships, stealing of their oil wealth etc. which Mr. Zakaria has discussed at great length on several occasions, ESSENTIALLY laying the blame at AMERICA’s DOORSTEP for the STUPIDITY of these people mired NOT in democracy & progress BUT MEDEIVAL RELIGIOUS EUPHORIA!).
4)” Eventually there will be KINDLER, GENTLER monarchies that spread the wealth around more. (Does it also apply to their helpless MINORITIES Mr. Zakaria?)
5)” In terms of Egypt: I think it will LOOK LIKE Indonesia today. (Where does the Muslim Brotherhood whom you NEVER TIRE of proclaiming as MODERATE & PROGRESSIVE sit in your prophecies Mr.Zakaria?).
6)”It (Indonesia) was poor. It HAD the dangers of Islamic fundamentalism, extremism and jihadi groups. (Is Indonesia even largely free of Islamic radicalism today Mr. Zakaria? Have Americans forgotten the celebrations on the streets of Jakarata after 9/11? Or the spate of attacks on western targets there?).
7)”But the DEMOCRATIC political system STABILIZED the country. It provided VENTS and ESCAPE VALVES for some of these TENSIONS.” (REALLY!!!! Why don’t you talk about the plight of minorities there Mr.Zakaria? And what kind of VENTS do they have apart from getting killed Mr.Zakaria?).
8)” There were hiccups along the way. Indonesia is still a pretty complicated place with a lot of corruption, dysfunction and SOME PROBLEMS of Islamic extremism. But, BY AND LARGE, it has been a stable democratic country with economic reform. (Is that statement enough Mr. Zakaria? This is EXACTLY the way you HOODWINK Gullible Americans by making some broad statements to SHOWCASE your views as FAIR & BALANCED, while the CAMOUFLAGED MESSAGE is vastly different!).
9)” it would be AMAZING PROGRESS for the country (Egypt). It would be MORE PROGRESS in 10 years THAN THEY HAVE MADE IN 40 YEARS. (REALLY SO, Mr.Zakaria? You have termed Mr.Mubarak as a CORRUPT American STOOGE even as the Egyptian economy was growing at between 6-8% all these years…something that Muslim nations could only dream of!! And ASTOUNDINGLY you LIED when you called the Israeli-Egyptian peace deal as AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN TWO REGIMES & NOT BETWEEN THEIR PEOPLES with YOUR COVERT AIM of RESURRECTING the HOSTLITY of the DOMINANT (& now DORMANT!) Arab adversary against TINY ISRAEL, inline with the Hamas inspired Arab & Iranian game-plan of BANISHING the Jews from that land YET AGAIN!!!
A lot of Americans have already seen through your game Mr.Zakaria, INSPITE of your Yale credentials, dominant media positions, and progressive Indian background (thanks to India’s tolerant Hindu majority!) . BTW, even Afia Siddiqui was MIT educated!
Amit-Atlanta-USA
PLEASE READ AT LEAST THE LOWER HALF OF MY LONG RESP. ABOVE TO SEE A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF MR. ZAKARIA's ASSERTIONS.
Here's just one more that I thought needed some FINE TUNING!
"1)” A number of you have been asking me on Facebook, Twitter and iReport about “MY PREDICTIONS” for the Middle East ten years down the line. (Sounds like a SOOTHE SAYER to me, and I would also replace the word PREDICTIONS by PRETENSIONS!).
Amit-Atlanta-USA
Fareed makes a great living lecturing to Arab and Muslim and college groups all over the world. Who do you think is paying him? His job is to defend Islam and gently agitate against Israel to avoid losing his CNN gig.
The real problem in the Middle East is that the Arabs are dealing with a population tsunami, and they cannot make enough jobs for all the young people which inevitably leads to unrest and rebellion.
Getting rid of Israel will change absolutely nothing for the Arab masses. They will just have one less scapegoat to scream about. Turning to war against Israel will be incredibly expensive and do nothing to expend the Arab economies. They need to work with Israel to create high tech jobs and upgrade their sciences.
All the noise coming out of the Arab apologists like Fareed is just useless noise that will not improve the lot of the Arabs. They need to deal with their population explosion, and need to keep the radical Islamists in check because they will bring nothing but poverty, ignorance and internecine warfare to the Arabs and Muslim world.
@ Amit from Atlanta: Your post is really boring, lengthy and jumping up and down to different issues but mainly bashing Islam using all the usual stereotypical claims. You are trying to sound like the defender of the Judeo-Christian values and interests (yeah sure, that always sells in the good old USA). Cleverly stuffing your arguments with statements that appease to the majority in this country and feed the rampant Islamophobia among regular Americans. I have no idea where the likes of you get the audacity to believe that ALL regular Americans are so stupid that they will always fall for this crap.
You will get a friendlier crowd if you post your ingenious revelations in sites frequented by the lovers of Limbaugh, Hannity, Boortz or Beck.
While I do understand the fact that you as a Hindu have a lot of misconceptions against Islam, you should try to at least balance your posts to show some common sense. Sanity usually prevails or so I hope!.
Will-Atlanta-USA:
FYI – I Hate Hannity, and Ann Coulter and NEVER EVER LISTEN TO THEM....NOT EVEN ON THEIR VIEWS ON MUSLIMS.
I also largely disagree with Boortz, and even more so with Limbaugh, and Beck again even on Muslim issues.
Having said that I am a GREAT GREAT FAN of some of Pakistan's most well known MUSLIM columnists Irfan Husain, Nadeem Paracha, Kamran Shafi, I A Rehman, and Mahir Ali and two thers non-Muslims (Parsis) Cyril Almeida, Ardeshir Cowasjee and GET MOST OF MY INFO even on Islam, Pakistan, Islamic terror, etc. from PAKISTAN's #1 English Daily Dawn, and AGREE WITH EVERY WORD they say even on these topics!
Just check out the links below and skim through just the titles, which themselves are EYE-OPENERS!!!!
These PAKISTANIs are by far the MOST ENLIGHTENED, PRAGMATIC, MUSLIMS I HAVE EVER COME ACROSS. The only other Indian Muslims that can come anywhere close to these PAKISTANI GEMS are India's former president Abdul Kalaam, Azim Premji, and A R Rehman (who BTW was a Hindu until recently!).
http://public.dawn.com/opinion
Likewise I am also a STRONG OPPONENT of America unjust Iraq war, and NOW the Af-Pak war and favor PULLING our troops out of these conflicts and letting the Muslims manage their own affairs ONLY to go back if ever they conspire against America, Europe, India or any other country in the FREE WORLD.
Let me know what you have to say now!
Amit-Atlanta-USA
Anyone interested check out the following CNN-GPS link for some energetic discussion on ISLAM, AF-PAK ISSUE (incl. negotiating with the Taliban), drone attacks, etc. here.
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/20/ahmed-rashid-on-negotiating-with-the-taliban/#comment-13120
My latest posts are towards end.
There are some thought provoking comments by Ismaeel, Amber and Umar also. CHECK THEM OUT.
There are some aspects of the Indonesian model that Egypt could emulate, democratic institutions, a less than corrupt judiciary and police than is the norm, a less extreme teaching of islam. However one of the main "vents and escape values" is ethnic and religious conflcit. One of the main reasons that international terrorist organizations have not made more inroads into Indonesia, is that potential recruits place a higher priority in attacking the ethnic or religious group, often Christian, down the road. This is part of the Indonesian model that doesn't need to be exported.
Perhaps one element that should be addressed in the coming years is the use of force, and who has control of it. Will it be possible to shift toward a more equitable system which favors law enforcement, while decreasing the scope of unilateral military intervention?
I think there will be real change in the middle east, people will want the freedom we all enjoy. The young people want to interact with the rest of the world.
the difference is Europe is a rich continent while Middle east is oil and desert, what will these places look like when the oil runs out
K:
Don't worry thanks to the CRUSADE of people like Mr.Zakaria, that's well taken care of................many of thsoe people will be in Europe & America. The FLOOD GATES of Muslim migration will be opened as & when (NOT IF) MUSLIM Turkey is allowed into the EU. Mr. Zakaria is trying VALIANTLY to do just that.
Check out his ALL IN ONE GPS-transcript where he does everything in HIS COVERT AGENDA bash America, Europe, Israel to his heart's content, and suppor the Islamists!! While he does that in literally everyone of his articles, this is one of the best. As always, with Mr.Zakaria's articles you need to take care to read between the lines, with special attention to what he (deliberately doe NOT say at all, otherwise you succumb to the overall design thinking that it's all fair & balanced!!!
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1006/06/fzgps.01.html
Also check out my DETAILED comments above and let's discuss.
you dont discuss , you rant
Dear Friend Naro10:
You said: "you dont discuss , you rant"
True: Interspred with tonnes of facts!
Yemen
As food prices continue to increase world wide, Egypt will have a difficult importing more food. Egypt has to import half of the food that they eat. There will be food riots and turmoil in Egypt. I don't see democracy taking root and growing in that environment. The Egyptians will remember the 40 year rule of Murabarak as the time when they food to eat.
A drastic change could happen if Muslim countries allow freedom of religion (proselytism). As long as Islam constitutes the basic and only ideology, nothing is going to change, perhaps some cosmetic changes, but in general, everything will remain the same. I don't understand why Muslims do not convert to any of the Middle Eastern Christian Traditions, they offer much better moral, ethical and life standards than Islam.
With the exception of Libya and Syria, I think the Mideast will look pretty much the same a decade from now. What could change the oil-rich countries is a lack of demand for oil, but even if the US and Western Europe somehow wean themselves from Mideast oil, there is always China and India, both of whom will need massive imports to fill their needs. So, Saudi Arabia et. al. will continue and I disagree with the notion that Saudi Arabia will somehow mellow out. Power and greed are hard habits for the royal family to overcome.
Fareed, you mention two ways that Arab dictatorships have controlled the population, but there clearly are 3:
Bribery – by sharing the oil wealth if they have it
Repression – by preventing people from thinking, speaking, or acting freely
and Distraction – allowing people a single venting option, giant rallies to condemn Israel and Jews.
Only now with the increased spread of communication technology and the internet,
it has become nearly impossible to keep the 3rd method, Distraction by Venting against Israel and Jews,
from morphing naturally into what they really want to vent about,
which is Repression of themselves by their own governments and the subsequent lack of economic opportunity.
The proof of this 3rd method of control and how it really was simply Deliberate Distraction
is that you didn't see huge rallies in Tahrir Square of people holding signs bashing Israel and pleading for Palestinians.
The signs were about their own plight, that they have been forced for 50 years to be silent about.
You don't see huge rallies in Syria about reclaiming the Golan Heights from Israel, do you?
No, it is all about reclaiming their own rights as humans.
Syrians only protested about the Golan because it was the only thing they were allowed to vent over.
Control Method #3: Distraction of Venting against Israel and Jews.
Fareed, you need to acknowledge and incorporate it into your discussion.
10 years from now ? Try to look to september this year when the UN will say YES to the Palestinian state.
A new Israeli -Arabs war will start shortly and ALL the muslim country in the region will "forget" their revolutions.They have to "defend" themthelves from the bloody zionists
So bye-bye "Arab democracy " for another 10 years .........because of Israel off course .............
As always, Zakaria is very perceptive, very astute. Always fascinating to read him. My real concern about all the uprisings is that all too often in the past revolutions have a way of not turning out for the better of the people - there have been successful revolts but we'll all have to see how these uprisings play out in the end. I do hope the best for the people of the Middle East; they certainly would benefit from living in democratic regimes with equality for all - women included.
You were silent on the US involvement. I hope the middle east finds it's way to freedom and stability. I hope the US doesn't get involved along the way. We have a great track record of screwing things up. Our politicians spend billions/trillions in the process. The indigenous people hate us in the end. Don't forget we supported Osama Binladen when he too was a rebel fighting for freedom.
It will be a hot place full of primitive minded people doing primitive things.... just like it has been for centuries. Hopefully one day the human race can break from it's self imposed prison of religion.
I see a one world government coming out of all this. Not good. Get right with God. John 3:16 is so overquoted, but hits the nail on the head. Believe in Jesus, because these things have been prophesied and are coming to pass and will pass.
Check out "theodorenmichele" channel on YouTube. That's only one of the many channels out there with prophesies coming true.
While you mention Tunisia, I don't think you fully give enough credit to its potential for real change. Not only was it the start of this Arab uprising, it remains unique in several respects and potentially more capable of reforms than Egypt and all other Arab places mentioned in the commentary. First, it is an educated society albeit one in which jobs are a problem for graduates leading to considerable frustration. But with political reforms, the economy should be able to innovate through the inevitable messiness of building democratic institutions. Places like the Tunis School of Business and the Mediterranen Business School will put out talented business grads ready to engage in international trade and perhaps even bring Americans over to discover tourism along the coast, a fact that Europeans have known for decades. Tunisia can benefit from 'soft power' initiatives even more than other countries in the region in such undertakings as as Partners For A New Beginning, headed by former Secretary Albright and supported by Walter Isaacson and other Americans with a great deal of money and influence. For the United States, there isn't such a heavy American footprint in the country and anti-Americanism has never been a big issue. Another important distinguishing feature of Tunisia is its secularism. With democracy, this could be put to the test as now there are 50 political parties, a few Islamic-based though apparently moderate right now, so a big-tent reform seems to be in the future as the country heads to elections in July. Tunisia benefits from French influence in a manner that Egypt doesn't know from its experiences with Europe. France has compelling interests and could easily partner with American and Italian partners. Tunisia should also be lauded for its promotion of women's equality. It's not nearly what it is in Europe or America but certainly light years ahead of other places in the region. Tunisia has the potential to be a beacon of hope for real democratic reforms and while attention has focused so much on Egypt, this country where a fruit and vegetable street vendor took his life rather than continue to suffer daily indignities at the hands of police, flooded the imaginations of people in the region. Keep an eye on Tunisia, Fareed!
Zakaria, doing for CNN what he did for Newsweak (selling price $1). LOL
I think that the Middle East has avoided cultural change – much like Japan prior to WWII – or China till recently –
when we look a Europe of today, there is tremendous resistance to cultural change – similarly, there are parts of
the US where cultural change proves difficult. As for true freedom, it is a difficult matter – today opinion in the US is
less free – by that I imply that there is an overwillingness to thrust a dominant opinion – simply put, Opinion = Media loudness.
We don't think Ben Wederman represents the Libyan people – but unfortunately that is what we are forced to live with.
CNN represents itself – Cooper and Morgan mostly represent themselves as do you. But I think that there is a case for
an alternative newsmedia – that should be the goal of social media – and ultimately – large News wallahs should not
be preaching their stuff.
fareed, please just stick to issues you actually know about. none of this made sense and it was just ridiculous. especially that comparison with indonesia. i mean where did that even come from??
Zakaria , unfortunately you know nothing about politics , I am Saudi and Proud and love our royal family , every citizen in saudi arabia loves the royal family regardless of oil and wealth , it is saudi tradition that we respect and love our leaders and they do the same , I am not going to tell you what our goverment has done for us but an important point is that our leaders pay us to study , we do get salaries in the schools just to encourgae us to study , tell me any one of western countries do the same , it is just and example , enjoy your freedom and leave us alone please
hey fareed what is the aim in regards to reforming the entire world to the united states ideology of democracy? What are the benefits? Democracy is a zoo where folks can run rampid in lust and desires. Is not possible for a nation to partake in a government that is based on religious text and it be acceptable to the us? what about mexico? It is filled with criminals, terrorist, and drug cartels is mexico safe from the americas punch?
if israel is hiding under the curtains and leading the world the way it has- shame on you... we all know; you have the money and the power.. ppor my nation..poor middle east....
when the world ends; those who suffered shall cherish life in Heaven..
May 21, 2011 JUDGMENT DAY
The Bible GUARANTEES it!!!
websites to look at...
http://www.familyradio.com
http://www.ebiblefellowship.com
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihs4lZhidlY&w=480&h=390%5D
http://www.bmius.org
http://www.The-Latter-Rain.com
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihs4lZhidlY&fs=1&hl=en_US%5D
A good Muslim is a dead Muslim and so in 10 years the world will finally got rid of all suicide bombers and these friek terrorists ..... I inshalla
As long as the arab leaders, schools and mosques won’t stop teaching their children to blow themselves up to kill innocent people there will not be peace in any of the arab countries.
time4peace
There is a HUGE difference with Indonesia, Indonesian are generally peaceful all the bad elements are imported from external extremist camps. Many cry corruptions in Indonesia but have anyone stop to think and calculate all the cost and expense of running the country when the tax collector will steal the country blind? Suharto no doubt had parceled out concession to so call cronies, this goes for regional generals and officials also. Please tell me how much will it cost to operate, train, maintain for a fighter jet, a tank, a frigette...all the troops and officers? All these are paid for by Suharto's so claimed corruption money! Suharto's resources usually 1/3 profit of all business that received concessions, to me it sure looked like tax collection in his name but actually for the country! I however am sure his children are extremely dirty. As for all the generals and officals are given 2 years in office to collect all they can as bonus or retirement fund. Is that dirty, I don't know......
Zakaria, with respect to your analysis and opinion, I think you missed it. What has been germinating for more then 20 years in the public streets comes from a frustration of Western supported tyrants who have completely silenced the voice of the Arabic streets to the extend that Israel was receiving unconditional support by even the Arabic League via their American puppets such as Moubarak, Abdallah and the Monarchs. Well ten years from now the whole Middle-East is poised to change toward a more aggressive stance at what Israel does with the Palestinian state. The new generation is not going to observe the continued atrocities committed in Palestine. Read my mind and wait to see!
Adam,
You put it so well. No Arab in the Middle East will want Democracy for themselves while sitting and watching the genocide of Palestinian brethens.
HI FAREED, I beilieve you are very close in what you are saying. I also believe that if you do not see some type of reform in Saudi Arabia it will be very unlikely that you will see any type of reform in any of the other oil producing countries for the simple fact like you say, they are the 800 LB Gorrilla in the middle east.
Down with the illuminati
In ten years Israel will still be talking like they want peace, but will still be provoking the Palestinians so that the Israelis have an excuse to never create peace . . .
I would like to ask Fareed – what is the ideal country that all these middle eastern countries should aspire towards? Should they all be like the United States?
If you say yes, then remember you are saying yes to these countries having all the problems that the Unites States has as well – huge dept problems, constant military interventions and blind support of one and only one chosen country out of the entire middle east – due to ethno- religious affiliations?
Really Fareed, what is the best country in the world, tell us, with a few minor modifications all the countries of the world could make that system their own. our own.
Why not take a more realistic view, for incremental and steady improvements in human rights and poverty alleviation for each of these nations and let them forget their own way forward, God help them?
With out a palestinian state. the right of return and a well equipped police and milltary its perfectly impossible to have reall lasting peace in the midileast !!!!
I agree with you that change in Middle East will come slowly, because the people might not be quite ready for democracy. But the clamor for freedom and change seem to be genuine. I grew up in Kuwait, and even went to Arabic school there. Even if you speak a little Arabic, and eat some of their food, they will accept you as a friend. They are just like us, and they want the same things in life like freedom, happiness, prosperity and so on. Just give them time. So, Inshallah, democracy will come to the Middle East. The work has just begun.
It’s funny that Fareed forgot to mention anything about Turkey. Turkey is the regions fastest growing and largest economy, it’s a huge energy hub that connects a whole host of gas pipelines from the Middle East- Balkans- Central Asia- Russia into Europe, its military is undergoing a massive military modernization program that will leave Turkey with the largest and most technologically developed Air force and Navy in the Middle East and amongst the largest in Europe by the end of the decade, its on the fast track to developing a large number of nuclear power plants, and Turkey’s political clout is enormous. In fact, Yemen’s opposition group just recently named its politically party after that of the current Turkish government’s party (The Justice and Development Party). My prediction is that following our decline and exit from the region, Turkey is going to be playing some major clean up. Given Turkeys close and warm relationship with the regions Jewry (Jewish Population) for the last 600 years this can be a good or bad thing for Israel. We will have to wait and see.
That will definetly be interesting to see. So many things can happen in 10 years. I heard Turkey dropped the stealth fighter jet program with Korea. What I am hearing now is that they are going with Brazil, Italy or even possibly Japan. So Turkey has like 116 Stealth figher jets sitting on hold plus another 100-200. The only AF in the region with stealth fj's is Israel but even they are only ordering 20. Turkey is ordering like 200-300. When you got Arabs, Israel, Russia and Greece on youre borders I guess you are allowed to be paranoid. lol.
"spread the wealth around more." I work hard for what I have. How dare you say I have have to share what I worked hard for. The person begging on the street should get a JOB.
the person begging on the street? college graduates can't even get jobs. Next time you see someone begging in the street, lend him your suit and take him to your boss for an interview; do your deed and see if he gets hired. If not, take him to WalMart to see if he gets hired. If he can't read, then tutor him and then help him get a job if you think it's as easy as saying "get a job"
Islamic Democracy: one vote, one time followed by oppressive dictatorship like Iran.
Both Egypt and Tunisia produce and export oil
To all Christians, Happy Easter! and start behaving like Christians in the true sense of its meaning.
What about the 2400 lb gurllla, Iran?
With any luck in 10 years all the Middle East except Greater Israel will be nothing more than a huge sea of glass that glows in the dark......
The Global Jewish Conspiricy has fallen to the new Global Homosexual Conspiracy.
Down with the system!!!!
THERE IS A GENOCIDE TAKING PLACE UNDER ANOTHER DEMOCRATIC WATCH!!!!!
Obama is too busy making believe he is a christian while endorsing election frauds by the UN and Hillary ex…. the Ivory Coast in favor of Allasane Ouattara. Since then only 2-3 weeks ago, that candidate (Allssane Ouattara – another Muslim, not wrong with them, except for this one) has been on a killing spree to eradicate all Christians in that country. The Ivory Coast is the largest Christian nation in Africa (At least it use to be)
The massacre perpetrated by Allassane Ouattara (http://ivorycoastgenocide.yolasite.com/) Images are graphic. The puppet that Obama try to legitimize through a congratulation speech. ((www.youtube.com/user/whitehouse#p/search/0/GHRA4jqeCaQ)
What an indulgent, yet totally shallow piece of writing. It has the analysis quality and depth of a fortune cookie text. Nice work.
It they keep supporting terrorist and we finally get a president with guts they will look like a blackened, radioactive hole in 10 years.
The long term solution to the Middle East problems is Muslims conversion to any other religion except Islam. Around the world, the same problems arise in places with Muslim communities. I believe the key to make it happen could be all the Middle Eastern Christian churches that share the same language and culture than Muslims except ethical and moral values. If these churches try more aggressively to convert their Muslim brethren, many conflicts could be drastically diminished.
The oil rich countries will face a different set of pressures. Stuffing money into the pockets of millions of young people without providing meaningful employment opportunities, create frustrations on a grand scale. Underemployed mass harboring such frustrations could lead to them demanding a much biggerr say in how a country is run. In such a scenario, no amount oil money might be able to keep the lid on. With Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries beginning to look like modern states, the Gulf countries will look hopelessly anachronistic and for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries which have a bulge of under thirties population, the feeling of being left behind will be hard to ignore for the hide-bound regimes. As the South Asian nations grow more prosperous, the easy life built on exploited labor will will begin to be a thing of the past. Another headache for the rulers.
It's interesting reading comments. Most are from a bunch of losers that have no idea and are just a bunch of idiots. Some make some good points. Unfortunately most of you are ignorant and dumb and really should just go back in the caves where you came from. It may take longer than ten years but I believe the middle east, especially egypt with it educated population will be a better place to live and eventually they will all live in harmony and peace – including israel.
Yesterday I saw Fox History Channel. One American lady went to Saudi Arabia and she openly supporting their (Saudi) taliban terrorism ,if she have real guts she may support that terrorism in U.S. The U.S joined the Saudi Arabia in G-20 , why U.S did'nt join the Afghanistan in G-20 ,because both Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia following the same Taliban Terrorism.
Yesterday I saw Fox History channel . One American lady went to Saudi Arabia and she openly supporting their (saudi )taliban Terrorism . If she have real guts she may support that terrorism in U.S.!!!!!
If sane people on all sides do not stand up for what is just and put the effort to change, we are all doomed! After all we are all brothers with the same FATHER; ABRAHAM; if we do not come together in peace there will be an enemy that comes along and threatens all of or lives and our children and their childrens, childrens, we will turn to nothing, be nothing for the ones that are left will be starving slaves, with no hope, no rest and no peace!! So it is time that we all work together for the common good of all of us! We must destroy all vesteges of real evil to have any hope of coninuing to live our lives, we must seek out all evil and then we can love our familes to the fullest extent our heart, soul, and minds can put forth. WE ARE ALL FROM THE SAME FAMILY!!!!!!!
I don't think it is possible to overstate the impact of modern Technology – especially in a region as YOUNG as the Middle East. Those born just a generation ago lived largely in relative isolation. After WWII it was TV that gave America a NATIONAL identity – before it had been many REGIONAL identities. The New Generation simply OUTNUMBER the older Generation in the MIDEAST – The Modern World connecting them through their CELL PHONES and other Ubiquitous Technology to a shared Global Identity that will make the old ideas simply IRRELEVANT to the world in which we all live.
Saying it as it is Fareed, as always!
Fareed Zakaria, though a follower of islam by name, knows little or nothing about the islamic world. Human beings being human beings, where ever one goes, and that includes the middle east, are basically the same in SPRIT AND DEED. Referring to political changes in the middle east & africa, (especially islamic countries) one only has to view the winds of change that are sweeping accross the desert kingdoms. It is a very basic concept that human beings of what faith long for freedom. (the very reason that brought FAREED ZAKARIA TO USA AND NOT TO SAUDI ARABIA.) Yes the right now the desert kingdoms are spending their huge built up reserves to keep their chairs, but not for very long. Sooner than later people being what they are, their memories being short lived, will ask for more and more till freedom is attained. Many may not even know what freedom is. But freedom is a fire that cannot be put out by affulence or water. So very soon, you will see the downfall of the regimes ruling the states of the GULF COOPERATIVE COUNCIL, WHICH COMPRIMISE OF SAUDI ARABIA, KUWAIT, UAE, OMAN, BAHRAIN AND THE LIKE. So Mr. Fareed Zakaria get ready to eat your own words.
Fareed- I liked your excellent analysis about the revolution versus evolution when it comes to non-oil regimes and oil rich regimes respectively. you hit nail on the head about the reality of that region. However, whatever the path of this sweeping political uprising would be in the region, I am not optimistic about the changes towards democracy and freedom for the people. I see more of a transition to what happened to Pakistan over the last few decades. The political process of Pakistan kept moving back and forth between democracy to military rule with no freedom for men and women; and no economic and social independence. I see Egypt might move to the same direction as it happened in Pakistan. As long as the so called Shariah Laws prevail in those Muslim countries, there will be no real freedom for the people towards economic prosperity and social development for all. I hope the transition towards democracy will also include the establishment of secularism in near future. That is the only way to see the real freedom for the people in those countries.
Fareed: "The Middle East governments have used two methods of control – mass repression and mass bribery. The oil-rich countries use mass bribery. Countries like Syria use mass repression"
Iran is an oil-rich country and its leaders have opted for repression. That tinderbox is arguably the most important in the region, but you didn't mention it. Is it just assumed that it's going to topple, or do we like to forget what the brave Iranian people are going through there?
In 10 years, the wars beginning now, having expanded and engulfed the region, will be winding down with it becoming clear just who will be in power. I cannot predict the winner.
Fareed Zakaria wrote:
"The problem is that Americans want low-taxes and lots of government services."
This is one of the most insidious and dishonest lies Zakaria incessantly purports. The bottom line is this : the current state of economic affairs is reflective of a growing and entrenched super-class which lives in an entirely different world than what we would consider the "middle and upper-middle" classes (doctors, engineers, mechanics, scientists, machinists, and other productive professionals). Forget about the poor for a moment; the super-class is now parasitically sucking out money from the most productive classes of society that are responsible for everything you see around you that makes society progress: competent doctors, science, technology, comfort, etc. The economic crisis in the world exists precisely because these oligarchs and plutocrats desire to keep their unsustainable wealth models which rely upon not paying the majority of capital to productive labor. This is why Zakaria will boldly claim that Western engineers and professionals are "spoiled rotten" for wanting to own their own homes while the "real" cost of labor is akin to the slave-wages paid to Chinese employees of big multi-nationals. These sycophants then have the audacity to purport to the general public that they desire to "raise" the standards of third-world poverty stricken humans. This is doublespeak. What they really mean is they want to lower the standard of the professional classes in the Western world, particularly in the United States.
Every single piece of verbal nonsense Zakaria defecates from his foul mouth is a promulgation of policy which benefits and sustains these finance oligarchs of the world at the expense of "Main Street" professionals and the educated and productive classes of society. He is a spokesperson from plutocracy and for plutocracy.
Government services are scraps compared to the astronomical budget of the military industrial complex and the maintenance of a worldwide financial monopoly by a handful of unregulated international financial institutions. Fareed should talk about the real problem instead of pinning the blame of everything on the "evil, fat, spoiled, and lazy westerner" who, God forbid, wants to earn a wage which he/she can support him/her self and their families with. God forbid he/she spends 3-7 years in post graduate education to be paid only marginally better than those without such an education. God forbid we actually have a "meritocracy".
Fareed goes on to write: " If you look at the recent polls, most Americans think there should be no changes to Medicare and no broad increases in taxation. This is magical mathematics."
Let's talk about "magical mathematics" Fareed.
"Magical mathematics" is a system of fractional reserve banking, owned by a private financial cartel, which can create money by monetizing debt, and then make trillions in profit by interest without adding one atoms weight of productivity to society. "Magical mathematics" are taking billions of dollars from taxpayers and giving them (true story) to the wives of Wall Street bankers who then buy up student loans with zero risk. This bailout – 220 million. "Magical mathematics" are the continuation of billion dollar bonuses and the ongoing transfer of wealth from the productive, creative, and educated classes to the financial oligarchs of the world.
Its wages, you stupid, stupid man.
Why is it, Mr. Zakaria, that you, time and time again, fail to acknowledge the fact that the wealthiest billionaires of the world have seen their wealth increase many times over in the past 10 years, while technology and productivity increased exponentially due to the creative contributions of education professional workers, YET, those very same professional workers have been marginalized and paid less and less ?
Magical mathematics are to somehow create a sustainable and prosperous world which rewards meritocracy and education while still having the worlds "super-class" keep getting richer. Corporate profits must be delivered to the most productive workers. The super-rich, simply, cannot be getting richer.
Let's see how will the middle east be different in 10 years – hmmm.. a couple hundred million illiterate people with no skills living in the 8th century........I think it will be the same. Only Obama can say things like "we can liberate the great people of Afghanistant and unleash their true greatness" and some drool over his pablem – 50% of the men can't read and ditto for 90% of the women, seems like they probably have a bright future competing against other people.
All of these countries want freedom but have absolutely nothing to offer. Very similar to the growing portion of a America who wants more from the government.
My two cents! LOL, there'll never be a so called Palestinian state. #1. there is not such thing as 'Palestinians, Arafat the swindler schemer invented this scam died with an estate $1.2Billion- your clue to what this ia really all about. Extortion racket. #2. Israel can't afford to risk surrender of airspace to a sovereign nation, with offensive air capabilty- given the track record of rockets fired every other day. #3. Logistics, there isn't enough land, water and resources to support a growing viable so called Palestinian nation- albeit split in two different places, Gaza and West Bank. So, where do these stupid people belong? Why are they stupid? Simple. They think "getting stuff for free" is a brilliant deal, having their kids taught jihad, and hate is smart, their not good people. History has clearly documented Israel as the eternal homeland of the Jews, and that the JEWS are even willing to share parts of their ancestral homeland with a so called Palestinian people is sufficient to demonstrate the kindness, tolerance and compassion the Jews have for a displaced people. NO OTHER NATION IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD would do such a thing. Now, it's time for these so called ingrateful Palestinians to move back to Jordan. Where they represent over 50% of the population and the Queen is Palestinian.
Ohhh here it goes... and then the retorn... God this sounds so lame after you've heard it for the 20 millionth time. Such a waste of brain cells to read through this garbage and then the cliche retort, and the the retort's retort... blah blah.
You are all annoying baboons.
Gambino:
I absolutely agree.
There are lots of lies such as the so-called Palestanians which have been PERPETUATED into the American psyche.
People like Mr. Zakaria who are otherwise smart, intelligent, highly educated and deeply knowledgeable in Muslim affairs know this clearly well, but will continue to orchestrate these, b'coz they clearly have an ISLAMIC AGENDA!
Plz. check out my resp. above (date & timer stamp: "April 23, 2011 at 10:08 am ") there are many more.
Let me know if you disagree.
Amit-Atlanta-USA
April 25, 2011 at 12:04 pm | Reply
Egypt will lead the change in MENA region (Middle East & North Africa). They have shown the maturity (non-violant protest, army not firing on its populace, and regime making its exit) and are capable to build a strong country on democratic principles, more akin to Turkey rather than Indonesia. I am very positive of this turn of events and look forward to the entire Islamic world turning away from monarchies.
I live in Israel and wonder about the Israeli Arabs and how their society is developing. I recently produced this video report which shows how the new generation of Israeli Arab women are challenging the conservative Arab society and the discriminating Jewish labor market:
http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/v/d2lpHFcvII4?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0
did not succeed in embedding – so this is the direct link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2lpHFcvII4&feature=channel_video_title
In saying the following I am not trying to claim an imperialist ownership of the revolutions in Arab countries but simply point out that they are reflective of a world wide trend occurring not only in Arab countries seeking fundamental political system change but as a part of the broader world disillusionment with current political process from the ground up.
What has captured the imagination of the world regards the Arab revolutions is a perception of ‘common goals, common aspirations’ inherent within the ‘youthful energy for political reform’ and calls for ‘Democracy and Freedom’ from oppressive political elites is the resonance with disillusionment of citizens within existing Western Democracies. Which is why there is overwhelming support for what is occurring.
One only has to look at the election of Obama and the rhetoric he used to gain power and the resultant response from the Republican losers indicating, as they always have without result for ‘change’ because it the political system in the words of Senator John McCain was ‘broken’ (Which apparently he has been saying for the many years he has existed in the US senate without result – why should he, he keeps getting elected saying the same things, if he changed something positively – he may never again). What has happened to the Labor Party in Australia is also reflective.
In a sense the Western Democratic citizens themselves have been having a sort of revolution but ,because as it appears to be in the Middle East and North Africa, have fallen back onto the same old political template because they have not been able to translate their desire for radical change into a workable solution – and sure as hell the Political elites of Western Democracies as in North Africa and Middle East are not going to help them find it – as in Egypt the Military is to retain power however hard it attempts to hide behind the thrown. Nothing changes particularly for women.
The fascinating thing is that the so called Arab Revolutions have reflected the attitudes of citizens of Western Democracies who have become more and more disillusioned with their own regimes and a perception these so called democratic elites are in essence although not as draconian certainly self-serving – and citizens are despairingly searching for an alternative (but can only see their way clearly to severely punish each elite at each election turn – the closest Western Democracies come to a revolution) – I suppose what is being called euphemistically an Arab way.
The trouble is we all concentrate on existing texts ethics religious and secular for informing our societal templates which frankly have not really delivered harmony and prosperity – though they always claim they do, the evidence in terms of the inter sectarian strife and destructive self-interest inherent in such systems have failed humanity. In other words whatever the adherents of these texts may claim the textual construct translated into the nature of societies have delivered us what – clearly there is something wrong with the foundation ethics – I would say of all of them to date.
I suggest a third way an Arab way if you like. We need a new ethic to base our societies on, understanding Freedom does not exist only the relative independence nature and fellow humans provide. Our resources are restricted and our ability to achieve any level of independence is dependant on your neighbor and not just the one over the fence and vice versa.
This is the ethic – It is only in seeking to maximize the relative independence of others first that we can maximize our own independence.
Means we are as much responsible for our neighbor’s welfare as our own without restriction.
Yes significant change – but is it not required as the earths resources need to be divided between more and more people – with the current political configuration and ethics this has meant and continues to mean what?
There are two central aspects nature and fellow humanity both are critical to the nature of humanities survival and therefore inform the nature of the textual constructs which would frame relationships, laws, business, etc
Of course such a thing will not happen overnight as we continue to label what we do not understand with what we do, but I suggest for the sake of positive change in a thousand years time:
For the Fridge magnet on your reflective days: “Maximize the Relative Independence of Others First”
Means at least more washing up but as a solution for world problems starting at ones fridge and working outwards may be an answer humanities been looking for.
Text builds bridges, text also builds societies. Good foundations are the key to both. The foundation of Societies are ethics the above should help for better outcomes.
Hopefully they come up with an Arab way as long as it is not something relabeled as usual.
One thing that has not been factored in is that the oil producing countries in the Middle East are approaching or already have achieved their peak production rates. Soon, their production will decline. And then, they will no longer be able to bribe their citizens. Those countries will go down quickly as their citizens have grown to expect the bribes.
I believe the author does not have a good handle on geography and world history. In the case of Eastern Europe the people were attempting to throw off the yoke of an external force. The Soviet Union was really not much different then lets say the Austrian Empire forceably holding peoples to the empire against their will. In the case of the Middle East, each country has their own despot. There is no home country to withdraw to.
In the case of Indonesia, there was a functioning merchant class be it an outsider people(The Chinese). The merchant class that could have fullfilled this role in the middle east(The Jews) are long gone. In my opinion democracy will be very diffiicult to establish in the middle east because of the lack of mercentile flow in these countries. Even poor people of ambition want democracy as it improves the prospects of peace, stability, and prosperity.
If a collection of people have no stake in bettering their future internally, they really do not see a use for democracy. There is a very chance that the repressive despots will just be replaced by other despots be it secular or religious. I see a stronger parallel between the Middle East and the Russian Revolution. The Russia Revolution was led by moderates but ultimately taken over by more disciplined and brutal tyrants who ultimately retained the boundries of the Russian Empire and later looked to expand it. I would like to be wrong. But I believe there are not enough people in these middle eastern countries who see a democracy as advantageous. Democracy requires negeotiation and compromise, something that there is little in the midde east. These are easier to do if you feel you have something to lose or if poor have something to gain.
Here's a response I posted with regard to the discussions with the Taliban, and thought it may be relevant here.
Basically, I was discussing the attitude of Indian and American Muslims of making common cause with our adversaries sowing genuine doubts about their loyalties in Indian and American minds.
I thought it was very relevant here given that Muslim issues the world over are always interlinked with even people like Mr.Fareed Zakaria making those connections.
Check this out & let me know what you feel. I also have a ton of other comments there.
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/20/ahmed-rashid-on-negotiating-with-the-taliban/
Amit-Atlanta-USA
Dear Umme Omar (Indian Muslim) and Amber (Pakistani Muslim) and all others:
Let me tell you this kind of COMRADERY (transgressing even HOSTILE borders) between Indian & Pakistani Muslims, and American Muslims & other Muslims (who HATE America….which is a vast majority in the Muslim world!), is EXACTLY what has made Muslims largely UNTRUSTED here in America, as well as in India, Europe, Australia Russia, China, in short everywhere outside of the Muslim world!.
Given that such attitudes are only hardening all over the world, surely we are moving closer to possible open conflict in the future. Even though for political correctness American & western leaders may not admit that, what is essentially going on as “War on Terror” in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, the middle east as well as even inside our free nations is an “unstated” ideological war between progressive/tolerant forces and the others. We are manifestations of this even all over normally tolerant America, Europe where there is huge opposition against mosques, Muslim communities nearly everywhere.
All these “cataclysmic” events are taking place inspite of President Obama’s well known Muslim bias, only b’coz of the deep rooted belief & fear in Americans not to let these forces take over their country or dramatically alter its tolerant, Christian ethos. That applies to India as well, given that even Hindu politicians frequently pander to Muslims for votes, the vast majority of re-awakened Hindus (more so the highly educated ones) are determined not to let their country be taken over by these cancerous ideologies!
So, in conclusion while we Hindus (& Christians, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists) & Muslims (in India) and likewise in America (all non-Muslims Vs.Muslims) do indeed outwardly mix with each other, deep down, we all are aware of the inherent divisions and contradictions in our “interests/goals/loyalties” which do manifest itself from time to time in the form of workplace/neighborhood discriminations, even as we PRETEND otherwise! In fact all such differences come to the fore around lunch tables, parties and other events ONLY after making sure no one from the other group is around!
I am not sure if these attitudes will change unless there is a groundswell of introspection within the communities to ensure that they can live in true harmony in today’s multi-polar, multi-racial, multi-religious world.…………..most people don’t see that happening at least with regard to one community which is sinking father away in to the abyss!!!
People like Mr. FAREED ZAKARIA are only adding to that mess, wish he takes a cue from some of the most enlightened, pragmatic souls in his own Muslim community (Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Americans, Palestanians alike.) such as Irfan Husain, Nadeem Paracha, I A Rehman, Meher Ali, Kamraan Shafi, A R Rehman, Walid Shoebat, Zuhdi Jasser, Abdul Kalaam, Azim Premji, Aamir Khan, Asra Nomani, Taslima Nazreen, Dr.Pervez Hoodbhoy, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Wafa Sultan and several others.
Lastly, why am I hard on my own former countryman Mr.Zakaria? That's b'coz he's intelligent, smart, highly educated and is undoubtedly hugely influential amongst both Muslims and even more importantly non-Muslims in America & India, a lot of whom are now realizing his hidden Muslim agenda. Once that comes completely out in the fore, I doubt if any American or Indian will support any Muslim intellectual as a voice of moderation!
And, I don’t believe he will!
Amit-Atlanta-USA
April 25, 2011 at 10:04 am | Reply
Mr. F.Zakaria's opinion and expertise on the Islamic world and the Middle East should be taken with a grain of salt. Before and after the Bush invasion of Iraq Mr. Zakaria in his Time magazine articles he was touting the Bernard Lewis and the neo-con line that the overthrow of Saddam's regime will usher a Democratic government in Iraq and a wave of Democratic regimes in the Middle East will replace autocratic rule. What a delusion?
Iraq after Saddam has become a state where Iran's mullahs call the shots in Baghdad and the country after the departure of the US troops will slip into anarchy.
This man does not recognize the influence that Islam has in the life of the average person in the Middle East street and the effects and the reaction to modernity the Arab-Isreali conflict casts in the events on that part of the world.
Chettahe:
I respectfully disgree with you when you say this:
"This man does not recognize the influence that Islam has in the life of the average person in the Middle East street and the effects and the reaction to modernity the Arab-Isreali conflict casts in the events on that part of the world."
On the contrary Mr. Zakaria is smart, intelligent, highly educated and deeply knowledgeable in Muslim affairs......BUT HE CLEARLY HAS AN ISLAMIC AGENDA!
Plz. check out my resp. above (date & timer stamp: "April 23, 2011 at 10:08 am ") there are many more.
Let me know if you disagree.
Amit-Atlanta-USA
Here's one more response I posted at the following link, which I strongly believe is very relevant to this discussion:
Ron M:
I absolutely agree with you.
I wonder why we are continuing to spill American blood in that wasteland, and burning billions in money we ourselves don't have aiding these ungrateful people. Unless our interests are really impacted we need not worry, least of all Muslim countries b'coz either way it's going to come back to haunt America!
Let's leave it to the Organization of Islamic countries (OIC) to handle it, if they want to! After-all, they have 1.5 billion people, and TRILLIONS IN CASH that we have given them in return for their oil (which we have NOT stolen from them!!
Further, we also should take care not to allow people who do not adapt, and harbor nothing but hatred for America, and overtly & covertly sympathize with our detractors, to immigrate into this country. Of the people already here, there must be a lot more surveillance on their religious and other places to really keep a tab on what they are upto. As a Hindu American I welcome security agencies to monitor our temples (even covertly).
As a no-Christian, non-white recent immigrant I say, let us implement some COVERT racial profiling (just as the Israelis do) at our a/ps to keep an extra eye on people who look like me and spare the innocent whites. I say this b'coz I am NOT willing to sacrifice my life in the garb of political correctness by letting someone who looks like me to get on my plane with ulterior motives.
Quite frankly, free nations like America, Europe and India are digging their own graves by bending over backwards in accommodating these ungrateful people. THAT MUST CHANGE!
Plz. check out my other responses here (if you can spare some time!) & let me know if you agree with me. You will need an hour at least to read through them all!
Amit-Atlanta-USA
April 25, 2011 at 11:50 am | Reply
Here's the link to the above:
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/20/ahmed-rashid-on-negotiating-with-the-taliban/#comment-16232
Zakaria is an irritating short statured a hole that loves to comment on being paid for his comments and is using the freedom of speech in this country to malign those who he doesn't agree with. All for a PRICE.
JOjo,
Are we all happy that YOU are not paid for exercising your freedom of speech!
I like reading good fiction. This story almost made me laugh. You funny
As long as Muslim countries maintain Islam as the dominant factor in their socio economical societies, nothing is going to change. Muslims should consider converting to Christianity, preferably to any Middle Eastern Christian Church which shares the same language and culture as Muslims except their distorted Islamic ethical and moral standards.
The middle east in 10 years? a parking lot would be nice.
Kevin in 1 secs, RIP would be nice
10, 20 or 30 years, it doesnt matter. We can plan or predict whatever we desire.. Seems like Fareed's been drinking too much of the fake Democracy kool aid. The Fact is democracy as we know it, is at best less than 100 years old and has no right to claim to be the best for mankind. I mean dictatorships, kingdoms and anarchy's have more right to claim success with 10's of 100's of years of rule to proove. Fact is that the abrahamic religion in it's purest form will rule again and will rise again with a system thats planned by the greatest of the planners and supported by the most powerful. Allah, yes Allah, the same Allah (god) that was behind Adam, Abraham, Moses, Jesus and Muhammad. True Christians, Jews and Muslims will be rewarded. Rule will be just and will be the best of times.... but before we get there, there will be these 10, 20, 30, 40...... or simply N number of years with what we know of "today like"... so relax...... and save your energy..
That's a great sentiment, but I don't want to lose my head to find out. That's the problem, people preach the kinder gentler aspects of the religion of Islam while what's on the ground and proven is completely different. 10, 20, 100, yrs will not change the way people think or observe their god, whether it's allah of the east or God of the west. Your predictions are as suspect and full of prostelyzing as mr. Zakaria's are full of false predictions and false hope.
Fareed Zakaria's knowledge of the subject is deeply primitve and his analysis is stupid and contradicts to the facts on the ground. All these so called "revolutions" lead to growing islamofascism and war.
Yep exactly, all these revolutions are good for muslims and islam. Infact, the fake democracy is a good way to break up these dictatorships in the middleast. U.S and the west have relied on these dictatorships which actually helped the u.S/israel agenda. But now that the U.S is promoting change thinking the democratic govts will U.S even further, well think twice. ONce again, good for muslims/islam in the long run because it will pave the way for a united Islamic nation run under sharia law (the most fair constitution around) written by the most supreme (Allah, yes Allah the same god true Christians and Jews worshipped before they fell prey to pagans). Good luck! ...
after the fall of Rome there was chaos and after that darknessand the ignorance of the middle ages. Lets expect that now as well.
>Years from now my prediction to you is that all those non-oil-producing states will look significantly different from the way they look now.
Wow, deep! Why does anyone give this idiot a forum to blather?
she is hot. this is great. this is the future. soon, there will be like, a billion newly liberated women up for grabs for guys like me. and most of these women are beautiful. this is heaven on earth!
only problem is they are super hot but when they hit 30 they look 50 they dont age well at all
Guys, I suppose you all know that unless the Koran is rewritten to accommodate latest changes in human right, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, gender equality, social justice nothing is going to be changed in ME. So, not point to get engaged in unproductive discussions.
The future of the Middle East will be very similar to what it was like in the past...tribal bandits chopping each other's heads off in the desert over a stolen camel, some perceived insult about their sister's hummus recipe, or the fact that the guilty party's great-great-grandfather prayed only four times a day instead of five. Yes, I know what you're all thinking, so let's get it out of the way now.
RACIST!!! BIGOT!!! HATE-MONGER!!! TROLL!!!
Feel better? Good, let's move on, shall we?
The simple fact is that most Middle Eastern governments are propped up by authoritarianism. These dictators that are currently being overthrown will only be replaced by new ones. With a few exceptions, Arab and Muslim countries don't really do well with democracy. We in the Western world like to think they would if given the chance, but people power in the Middle East usually translates into chaos and bloodshed. Consider what Iraq and Afghanistan were like after we "liberated" them. Granted, they were far from havens of democracy before, but at least the strongmen in power kept the population in check. These people don't understand the concept of freedom and democracy, and the few that do have emigrated to other countries. This isn't prejudicial bigotry here, people, it's simple truth. This region of the world has a history far older than our own, and at no point has that history been a democratic one. You can't undo thousands of years of social conditioning just because the West has embraced democracy in a fraction of that time. Once the oil wells run dry, global warming turns what little farmland they have left into dust bowls, and the old dictatorships get a little too stale, violent revolution will perpetuate the cycle until there is nothing left but a few waring tribes – just like when they started. At that point, at the very least, they will have the benefit of hindsight to guide their path to the future.
That is a very dark and fundamentally ignorant view based on what? Comic books? You obviously have no idea nor any desire to know the truth of very nuanced cultures which have been repressed but actually are comprised of very intelligent and well educated people.
I always laugh (or cry) when I hear these so-called "experts" predicting the future.
10 years down the line ??? Fareed Zakaria in his wildest dreams could not have predicted the fall in Egypt and Tunisia, the turmoil in Libya and Syria "1" month before it happened.
And he is going to predict 10 yrs down the line.
Give me a break!
Nazk:
You are right!
Mr. Zakaria makes sure that he has bits & pieces of all scenarios, as an escape route when things don't work out the way he has envisioned.
Besides, Mr. Zakaria has an even greater COVERT agenda of promoting Islamic causes and trashing America, Israel and the west about which I have written extensively in this section & elsewhere.
If I can cite Mr. ZAKARIA's own analogy on the US ECONOMY & DEFICIT when he said that the GREATEST DANGER TO THE US STEMS FROM THE FACT THAT OUR SHORT TERM STATISTICS LOOK GOOD, WHICH MAKES US COMPLACENT, AND CAN SPELL DOOM IN THE LONGER TERM.
LIKEWISE. Mr. ZAKARIA's TAQIYYA may actually help him win some support for the Muslim community in general amongst GULLIBLE Americans, but in the longer term people will see though his COVERT ISLAMIST AGENDA with FAR REACHING CONSEQUENCES for the community..... which is already well underway!
Amit-Atlanta-USA
what happens when large countries are not importing oil from the middle east as much that is their only export the middle east will be doomed
Fareed. It's 4 quarters for a dollar. Whoever will take power from the current tyrants in all these arab countries will eventually become corrupt themselves. There is a stink in the arab population. Higher education is key. The founders of America were highly intelligent business people and inventors that saw that freedom was the pillar to peace and prosperity. When arab mothers implore their children to go to school instead of throwing rocks at soldiers on the street, the flame of true democracy and freedom will soon begin. Otherwise it's same sh*t different day.
Zakaria has been realistic in analyzing the world events. Israel is a democracy therefore the chances of upheaval are almost zero People are not oppressed as in a dictatorship and if at all there is any issue then that is dealt in a democratic manner not by overthrowing the regime as is the case with the arab world. Besides, Islam is the religion of the arab world and that will play an important role in unifying them during the crisis period.
the fact that Zakaria doesn't mention israel is because it is a moot issue. Some of the changes happening in these countries are driven by secular progressive movements and while they might have severe antagonism against Israelis, its not on their top list of issues. Somebody mentioned something along these lines that the people of these nations hate Israel as much as they hate each other along religious lines and this is very true. i worked in Oman and been to the UAE, Egypt, Qatar and SA for over 10 years and even there this was shockingly evident. unless they radically address these problems, they are going no where.
So i differ with Zakarai and 10 years from now, the status qou will still remain the same.
My question is, this article assumes the US to be a constant player in the events that unfold. What if the US does not get control of its economy and China, or some other nation becomes the big player in world events? What happens if the US ceases to be a player in world events as all, because of its economic problems?
On the positive side, what happens if the US and the developed nations find a way to replace oil? how does this change the article above?
No peace expected amid growing extremism in the region. After the bombing of Gas Pipeline between Egypt and Israel, and ongoing rapprochement between Egypt and Iran, my simple conclusion is that Jan25 Tahrir protests aimed at aligning Egypt with Iran objectives and extremism. This process started by destroying Mubarak moderate regime, tarnishing image with no evidence. Another strong indicator of shifting to extremism is that one-sided democracy in Egypt, no media reports on Mubarak supporters demos at Maspero TV building area, biggest last Friday, and upcoming one on April 29 tomorrow.
No mention of Israel in the article.
The State of Israel is the number ONE country to watch as I believe that nation will play a key roll in the Middle Easth.
It is amazing to me that the article did not even mention Israel, like that nation is not part of the Middle East picture.
Anyway, God will protect Israel from those terror organizations who
would try to do her harm!
I completely agree with you Jim. And for those of you that hate me saying this because you know it's true you'll see one day. All of the events that are happening currently in the middle east has been prophesied in the Bible. So if the Bible states that there will be turmoil in the middle east then don't you think that it could be right about other things, such as the comming of Christ. Me personally I'm anxiously waiting that day, because I know that the turmoil in the Middle East is never going to end, because there has been at least something going on for almost twenty years, so I think in ten more years there isn't going to be a change at all. Unless we as a country stop getting ourselves into anymore trouble within other countries and learn how to face our economic problem first. The Middle East has so many different forms of government, and that's their biggest problem. Nobody can go in there and fix the problem with THEIR government because WE are not part of any of THEIR countries. Therefore I believe we stay out, withdraw our troops from Iraq fix our own economical problems first, and then we take care of the people in other countries. In order to help someone out you need to help yourself first. If you're not stable and you help someone else they're not going to be stable either. IT'S COMMON SENSE!
Thank God for Fareed. I am just saying that, because it sound better that "Thank God for Zakaria". The social social cyle move forward in evolutionary and revolutionary ways. No place is the same. PROUT (Progressive Utilization Theory) - now that's the enlightened path!
Zakaria didn't metion Israel because he is an antisemetic bigot that hopes Israel goes away. Shame on CNN for promoting antisemetism.
Here's what I wrote on Fareed Zakarias appeal to readers to discuss why Israeli-Peace is NOT round the corner.
Specifically by saying "Why Israel-Palestinian peace is NOT imminent" Mr. Zakaria is HERDING the flock (gullible readers!) into thinking ONLY along his line of NOT wanting to talk peace, rather than giving an opportunity for readers to vet their views from both sides!!!!!
Here's what I wrote & the link:
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/27/fareed-zakaria-on-why-israel-palestinian-peace-is-not-imminent/
Looks like things seem to be falling in place:
a) FATAH & HAMAS sign peace deal which means that going forward Israel will have to negotiate with a terrorist entity committed to the destruction of Israel & its main proponent America!
b) Today we hear that Egypt has unilaterally & permanently opened its Rafah checkpost, the only border crossing into Gaza outside of Israeli territory. Clearly a breach of the 2005 international agreement to curb the smuggling of arms/rockets into Gaza.
c) Islamist supporters like Mr. Zakaria blatantly saying that the Israel-Egyptian peace accord was between two regimes (& NOT its peoples), covertly implying that Egypt while keeping the Sinai can abrogate the deal.
d) President Obama's known soft corner for the "so-called" Palestinian struggle to the detriment of the safety & security our only true ally in the ME – Israel.
Looks like everything is falling in place for a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood b4 the end of the year!!
But, thanks to overwhelming support for Israel among the America people, and the widespread distrust of the Muslim agenda in America, Mr. Obama himself is under check after his in-famous Cairo Speech, support for the GZ Victory Mosque, vow to close Gitmo & trail of hard core Islamic radicals in civilian courts etc., on many of which he had to humbly retreat!
Hopefully American public pressure will also stop Obama him from doing anything remotely encouraging the Palestinians from unilaterally & stupidly declaring statehood!
Amit-Atlanta-USA
And here's what I wrote on why Mr. Zakaria can't be trusted on any issue dealing with Muslims, which is very relevant to the ME discussions that he is seeking to start (MINUS ISRAEL!).
Here's what I wrote and the link:
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/27/fareed-zakaria-on-why-israel-palestinian-peace-is-not-imminent/#comment-17926
I have NO questions to ask my former countryman Mr. Fareed Zakaria, SIMPLY B’COZ HE CAN'T BE TRUSTED on anything REMOTELY involving his Muslim faith..........PERIOD!
Having said that:
Mr. Zakaria's deep rooted “hatredness” for Israel, dislike of America, Europe, Russia, and in short the entire free world whom he “perceives” to have ganged up against Muslims everywhere, is “just too apparent”, even as he “pretends” to love America! Mr. Zakria's love for America is limited to the opportunities he has had in realizing his dreams, making money, enjoying religious freedoms, overall fairness & magnanimity of Americans, and his ability to influence & be heard by a lot of (gullible?) Americans, while being perched on top of respected media agencies.
So Mr. Zakaria being highly educated is neither naïve nor stupid as some people think, or fair & reasonable! Likewise Mr. Zakaria should also not be confused for other liberals who espouse true equality/freedoms for all Americans without encouraging mis-use of those very same freedoms with utter lack of sensitivity to other Americans.
Those are the “precise” reasons (in addition to Hollywood blockbusters), a lot of urban educated Muslims all over the world “swear” they love America (or is it grudgingly envy America?). On the contrary they are firmly rooted in the “Islamic Radical camp” when it comes to nursing the “never ending list” of “worldwide” Muslim grievances which Mr.Zakaria himself links “all the time’ to explain away dissatisfaction of American Muslims!
The “only CRUCIAL DIFFERENCE” between such “so-called Muslim MODERATES and their JIHADIST brothers/sisters is in that, they don’t support burning of girls’ schools, trashing their women, forcing their women to wear the Burqa, or imposition of Sharia rule (ONLY for business, as it deprives them of any business transaction that generates profits, which is unacceptable under the Sharia!), and may be a few other such reasons.
Short of these, there is absolutely NO DIFFERENCE between Muslim RADICALS’ & “Muslim MODERATES’ line of thinking on the “Supremacy of Islam”, “Monotheism”, “Injustices” by the west (both real & perceived), adherence to the “Muslim Ummah”. It’s such TRANS-NATIONAL allegiance to their religion and NOT to their homelands that makes a lot of Americans (Europeans, Indians, Israelis, Russians….) rightfully question their “Patriotism” and “trustworthiness” when it comes to national security issues.
Check out this video from Mr. Imran Khan one of Pakistan’s leading, politicians with a huge support base among the educated, urban, and “so-called Moderate Pakistanis”. A careful review of his message shows that Mr. Khan (and his Pakistani elite) inspite of being modern in his outlook, articulate, western educated, formerly married to a Christian British women etc. is “in reality” no more different from the Islamic radicals he purportedly opposes (just the way Mr. Zakaria does)!
Having said that I have written extensively in these columns stating my reasons for believing in what many Americans already know of Mr. Zakaria.
Particularly on the Israeli-Palestinian issue Mr. Zakaria routinely trashes Israel for oppression against the “so-called” Palestinians while “Never ever” referring to HAMAS' single point agenda of “destroying Israel” and also its main proponent America!
HOW ON EARTH CAN ISRAEL EVEN NEGOTIATE WITH THESE ISLAMIC RADICALS..........ON WHAT BASIS?
While there are “far too many” articles by Mr. Zakaria trashing Israel, and America, the following from his CNN-Fareed Zakaria-GPS lays bare “his no-holds barred” approach in supporting Muslim issues in the ME, and his “Crusade” to get Muslim Turkey into the European Union (EU) thereby opening the floodgates for mass Muslim migration into Europe & America (in the garb of building bridges between the west & Islam).
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1006/06/fzgps.01.html
I invite readers to tell me where I am wrong.
Amit-Atlanta-USA
hamas was created by isreal thru its occupation ,aggression and repression.hamas will disappear by elimination of these factors
Don't forget...The current Government of Iran is the result of a popular uprising against the secular/ authoritarian Government lead by the Shah of Iran.
Libya, Syria, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen, Sudan and Egypt can look in the mirror of Iran and see what it will become.
After the ""armed"" Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Hamas etc. quiets the ""unarmed"" voices of democracy through intimidation and murder all the above states will become radicalized Islamic theocracies.
Calls to abrogate the peace treaty with Israel have already been announced by the Muslim Brotherhood. That is not a goal of a peaceful democratic movement.
Google this Thread: Muslim Brotherhood, abrogate the peace treaty with Israel.
There is some much to be positive about I didn't want to make a remark because my opinion differs greatly. I do not hold the same faith that many of you share. I believe radical Muslim faith will eventually win out in many if not all of these countries involved in "Arab Spring." Terrible events will follow as the crowds become frenzied and atrocity after atrocity will occur due to radical Muslims perverting the Islam Religion. Israel will be in imminent danger and eventually will be involved in a nuclear catastrophe attributed to, not good Muslims, but radical Muslims as this is their will. The world will be up in arms on how to react (retaliate). The fall of the kings and dictators will end up being the beginning of a new age – Radical Muslim taking over key political/religious positions and inciting their populations towards hate. Curse me, tell me I'm wrong till you're red in the face because I truly hope this won't be the case but nothing has convinced me so far – certainly not words from the political analysts of the world.
Apart from his intriguing comparison of Egypt's development to the present state of Indonesia, this forecast is pretty run of the mill.
I get the impression that a little insider information could have developed this forecast.
The real "gorilla" in the equation is the hate that will not disapate against America no matter how much fundamental change happens there. Our history with them is based on one thing, Israel. As long as we support them as we should, there will be issues. We could pull every ounce of military, and aid, and completely retire from the region, but would continue to face their scorn due to our right support of Israel.
Those issues didn't matter 40 or 50yrs. ago when we could squash them like a bug if needed, and they knew it. Now, they do not fear that as they should not to be truly free people, but their idea of freedom may be radically different than ours.
We need to continue to support Israel, a tough little country that stll knows a bit of curb due to US influence. The present administration will pass and in 10 yrs. perhaps another couple of administrations will come and go, while the Arab world sticks with one group or person for decades. Israel left to it's own devices stil holds one card that they fear, the Sampson Option, which as we all know is their deterrent. With out US curb, they might feel cornered and use it some day.
Already the Isreali ministers are bantering around a strike on Irans facilities again, why?, They know the present administration will do nothing to counter any pressure on them and they frankly appear to no longer trust the US, at least the present administration.
10 yrs is too short of a time to expunge a recalcitrant and deep set political and religious angle that they will not abandon for any reason. 100 yrs would be too short.
In a decade, it will probably be a big hole in the ground once they've stopped killing each other because there's no one left to kill.
So the future is more religious wars. An oxymoron.
To predict the future we must must first set up scenarios.
The Egyption scenario: slow progression towards democracy. The stumbling block is Syria.
The Syrian scenario will continue as it is today at least for the next five years assuming the religious leader will live for another five years.
Several scenarios for Egypt, Israel, Jordan. If a feasible scenario evolves here it will stabilize the Middle East, though continual disussion will be required over the next ten years to counteract mental drift (the tendency of people to forget their promises and obligations).
If the Palisiiinians are still living like Rats in a sewer , in 10 years the middle east will be no different than it is today.
In ten years, if the world is lucky, alternative fuels will collapse the demand for oil. In the Middle East, Jihad will lose its police-state sponsors, and the OPEC nations will become a quiet backwater of madness and cannibalism. The the West, apologists for these regimes will live comfortably in group housing and enjoy the benefits of antipsychotic medication.
It is absurd to talk about the mid-east's future without discussing Israel. Israel is the 800 pound gorilla, not Saudi Arabia. If Israel, and its U.S. sugar daddy, persist with their present policies of territorial annexation, economic exploitation, and other forms of interference in Arab societies, then the future for the mid-east, and Israel, is not bright. If Israel amends its ways, withdraws from occupied territories, and makes substantive attempts to settle outstanding issues with the Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon, then perhaps, there will light at the end of the tunnel.
The on going war in the middle east between the so called Jews and their neighbours
is only a distraction from the truth.
WHAT WOULD IT TELL US ABOUT THE BIBLE AND ITS CONTENT IF THE JEWS
WERE REMOVED FROM ISREAL TODAY. THE TRUTH WHICH HAVE BEEN HIDDEN FROM US.
Ten years from now, with the exception of Israel, the middle east will still be an Islamic garbage dump.
Short and sweet. And I think you might be right.
In terms of the political vacuum that has been left in Egypt, I might agree that there are definitely strong parallels that could lead to consideration for Egypt following a like path of Indonesia in post colonial development. However, one must also consider the particular reactions to post regime independance; how Indonesia seperated from Dutch rule as an entirely different cultrure having been greatly influenced by its colonizers, and, a post Mubarak Egypt where social cast witin the same culture dictated the course of revolution.
Indonesia had re-established itself as its own new nation after dutch rule. And the institutions at the time, much as with India and British rule, did not entirely seperate with their former 'oppressors'. Indeed, it was Dutch influence that permanetly augmented any direction the country would have taken on its. Better to think of the post colonial relationship as an amicable divorce after a brief and only somewhat hostile seperation with terms of alimony and visitation rights. Jakarta has always maintianed economic ties with the west, including Holland.
Egypt, on the other hand, has just shed itself of its own poison; corruption from within that by that time was less than a legacy of former colonial influence. And further, the fact that the ruling elite profited through direct relations with the west and at the expense of their own places any transitions well on the mantle of ideological reforms rather than national independance. Egypt has just overthrown their Tsar.
While Indonesia has, relatively speaking, taken the more lethargic road into the proceding eras, Egypt, I believe, will continue to be a growing hotbed of revolutionary zeal, especially when we consider the comparatively more dynamic organization of an oppressed cast that initiated change wholey on their own. I see the country either lining itself up to oust another future despot, or spending several generations resolving its own identity within the region, if not the world. It will not be calm.
Fareed,
You sound much better when you talk about your own world.This is your call. Look at your own either belly button or tale, and forget about someone else's problems, considering you don't own enough knowledge about them. I am talking about your comments on Brazil Economy, and on calling Corinthians an "small soccer team" in the "small" city of Sao Paulo. Salam wa aleikum!
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