This week's big news is that Leon Panetta and David Petraeus will move into new jobs, running the Pentagon and the CIA respectively. They're excellent appointments, but I hope that they will use the occasion to have a major rethink about the way we handle international crises.
The vast American national security bureaucracy has become a world unto itself - massively funded, geared to its own strange internal dynamics and rarely subjected to external tests.
Consider the intelligence community: We spend about $80 billion on intelligence every year, more than the rest of the world put together. And yet we seem perpetually unprepared for global events. The CIA did not imagine the fall of the Soviet Union, the revolutions of Eastern Europe, the break-up of Yugoslavia, September 11th, Saddam Hussein's nonexistent arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, the global financial crisis, and, most recently, the Arab Spring.
Now, I'm not suggesting that it was possible to predict these events. Very few people or organizations foresaw them - certainly not in a timely manner - and those who did might simply have been lucky. International crises happen when they happen or a variety of complex reasons that are always easier to see in hindsight.
But surely we can be better prepared. Government agencies should be preparing policymakers and bureaucrats for sharp changes in international, regional and national patterns. They should be imaginative about the possibilities of sudden shifts and new circumstances. They should force policymakers to confront the scenarios in advance.
That is what has distinguished the most successful private sector firms in managing crises. Contrary to the mythology rampant in Washington and across the country, banks such as J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs did not know that the housing market would collapse in 2007. They could have made that prediction just as easily in '05 or '06 and bet on it and lost lots of money, as many firms did.
What J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others that weathered the financial crisis did was to carefully manage their risk, preparing themselves for sharp shifts in the market.
So I hope that at the highest levels of the U.S. government they are playing out crisis scenarios in Saudi Arabia right now.
Of all the possible events in the Middle East, the most complex by far would be serious protests in Saudi Arabia. If you think gas prices are high now, imagine oil at $200 a barrel.
The other way to be prepared for these kind of crises is to have some surplus power so that you have the firepower to deal with the crisis when it happens. Again, the analogy with the private sector: the banks that did well had some comfortable cushion of cash reserves so that they could ride out the crisis.
Right now, the United States is overextended, struggling with debt and deficits, fighting military actions in multiple places across the globe and beginning to be hit by a demographic and economic time bomb. We might be able to navigate through all this - as long as we don't hit another big crisis.
We will never be able to predict the next geopolitical, economic or natural disaster, but we can position ourselves to be prepared and to have a little more cash in the bank than we do now.
That's my take. What's on your mind this week? I invite you to share your thoughts below and to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for more throughout the week.
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Could the so-called "Arab Spring" be Islam's downfall? The right-wing thugs in Washington certainly hope that's the case. Greatly weakening or destroying Islam outright is high on Obama's list of priorities since he evidently harbors a powerful vendetta against it and it's adherents.
idiot
This is real, not some kind of far fetched conspiracy thriller – get real
We can only hope. So far, it's spread like a cancer since 622, and is now destroying Europe as we know it.
As a triage nurse, why can't we figure out immediate patients for evacuation and treat those more locally with better resources? Just curious.. Doesn't sound that difficult.
I t should only take about 200 of us to do this.
D
No. Did Catholicism go away in South America when democracy spread?
Islam is AGAINST dictatorship. There's nothing in the Quran that says you should have a King or a dictator.
Even if participants in the "Arab Spring" were much better organized, they could not destroy Islam. So far, I see little evidence that many of their movements would have survived this far without NATO; I doubt NATO will hang with them as long as it would take to make them self-sustaining. For 1400 years, not only has Islam stayed exactly as God intended–though many have distorted their own practice of it–there is no avenue for destroying it.
That might just be the most ignorant post I've ever read. Obama and the US is not against Islam. They couldn't care less a person or organization's religious beliefs when setting foreign policy. It is only the uneducated morons that think so. Not once in all the history of the US has there been a war due to the opposite side's religion. We've fought the British, French, Spanish, British again, Germans, Italians, Germans again, Japanese, North Koreans, Vietnamese and probably some others I've overlooked and NOT ONCE has it ever been about religion. It's always about freedom, democracy, human rights or money. That's it.
The radical elements of Islam would love to convince you the current conflicts are all just Jihad Holy Wars instigated by an anti-Muslim America but that is a load of rubbish. Every country and every religion has it's fair share of idiots. Don't be one of them.
Who says the Intelligence agencies were unprepared for the "Arab Spring". One could easily argue that this Arab Spring has been the goal of the US for decades.
Raw, I agree with you regard of the 'Arab Spring' as we're calling it now, and that has been an event which many have been hoping for. But the misconception I believe people are making is that the US is or somehow was "involved" in it's occurrence. We're not. We didn't spur it, we didn't instigate it. We surely set an example, social media technology we created helped, but imperialistic military operations and James Bond-esque missions do not. It is the people of those regions who are calling for their rights, and those people are the ones spurring change.
Not true,Raw. The U.S. has dreaded the so-called "Arab Spring" since it already cost it two of it's infamous stooges(Hosni Mubarak and Ben Ali of Tunisia) and now threatens a third(Saleh of Yemen). With these people gone,maybe the new leaders won't be quite so anxious to take orders from NATO or Washington.
Hear! Hear! Well put.
I think the CIA is all too busy in self-staging than getting down to the core of their mission. Exposures shouldn't be the nature of heir business. Many countries have intelligence apparatus, yet one doesn't hear anything about them, unless they do something really stupid. The CIA has to be re-structured, split into independent units, if it wants to work efficiently.
If the "Arab Spring" has been a long-time goal of the US, why were they caught in bed with the wrong people?
the financial meltdown, 9/11, the fall of the soviet union, the "arab spring" and revolutions in eastern europe were all predicted to occur. i remember in 06 talkign to a captain on a plane about the coming recession when the housing market busts. intelligence officals were screaming on the run up to 9/11, the only thing i remember reading in a book about the CIA and the soviet union was that it was happening faster then they thought, they thought it would take a few more decades. in a long story short, your wrong again and off the left wing diving board again fareed
Fareed made that point.... that there were a few who were correct (like the captain of the plane you were on). However... in general we weren't prepared as well as we could have been.
The premise of his argument is not about predicting world events but an overall unpreparedness to respond to them appropriately. Zakaria also wrote that some did indeed predict these events, though his quantification is debatable. Moreover, you assigning a political motivation to his commentary is misguided. Preparedness is in all of our interest, whether Republican, Democrat or Independent…and his criticism is addressed at both Democratic and Republican administrations.
I agree with Fareed. I very much hope to see reform and change with US intelligence, not just in how it's operated, but even with what the overall duty it is expected to perform. My take, their responsability should be observation of global events, yet it seems (as of now) their duty is to invest in these events (military operation or monetary support of specific regimes) and then inform the US people (and politicians) of the situation. Explaining that we are involved and it is 'our' problem.
Transparency of government, to me, isn't the release of information to the public in an after the fact sort of way that it is being conducted. Instead it should be the report of facts as they are. This brings the public into the conversation, and opens the door for proper bipartisan discussion.
And another aspect, much more simple – If Americans have to buckle down for cuts to entitlements like SS, Medicare&Medicaid, and loss of the right to collectively bargain everything needs to be put on the table, including defense & national security, intelligence, military operations.
-Neil
However, your list is not complete. The most important cut to be on the table are the banks and corporations that received the bailout, including all the beneficiaries of QE 1 and 2. All of them were spared any losses, while citizens are picking up the tab. There is no reason that private trust funds geared to pass on wealth from one generation to another tax free get protected with OUR money, while SIMULTANEOUSLY cutting my SS retirement that was fully paid in. In fact. our SSN fund is now having over a TRILLION SURPLUS, but the government is already seeing all this surplus as merely another pot of money to decrease the deficit with. NO WAY!. We have recreated a monarchy in US, with the new dukes and duchesses entitled to public assest, money and all, to dispose as they see fit, to benefit them directly or their "businesses" indirectly. In the meantime, our royals, the corporations, have exempt themselves from taxes, by spreading their income accross dozen or so island nations, while reporting losses in US, and paying ZERO taxes. President of ORACLE has suggested a very gracious solution: they will REPATRIATE their income, provided that they bring it into US TAX FREE! In the meantime, our Supreme Court has declared these FOREIGN corporations US citizens, granting them the first amendment rights, and the right to contribute in unlimited amount to our political process. Nice! The global lords now buy politicians, and preach to us throuh another illigal immigrant - the Fox News, what is patriotic. This is too funny, we can cry. And Libertarians will want us to be liberated from the burden of health care, retirement, public education, and other tyranny. And if we do not wake up, our children will be utterly uneducated in our "home schooling" system, teachers will work for room and board teachning the rich people's children, and doctors will be searching to work in China. Our public money, our public airwaves, our public lands and leases - all have been usurped by new royalty. We should be innured to accepting poverty and hardships, while the lords have cooked up the system to work in their favor. Let's go on and defend "smart" Morgans, Goldman/Saks and others for their "foresight". We are uneducated fools, and they are now unquestioned royalty. it is only the question of time when the currtsey will be obligatory.
Its going to take a state-by-state constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United. We also have "royalty" in the Pentagon. Our party that is supposed to be the "good cops" have turned themselves into the Washington Generals so the only choice is the party that is throwing itself over a cliff.
Funnyzakara you missed the point we are not getting our money's worth from these agencies. What a great con unlimited budgets no strong oversight and no report card on performance. Conservatives like Buckley must be turning over in their graves. In the deficit challenge these agencies need to be put on a performance basis. Hell at least the Vampire squid excutives make the company money in return for their bonuses. Get it you deliver and you get paid you don't and your budget is cut and you are shown the door. No left right here Fareed makes a great point lets get what we pay for.
This was an excellent program today Mr Zakaria.
Loved you take on the CIA. What exactly are the American people getting for their $80 billion? Certainly not good intelligence.
This is the most shallow article i've read in a while. US Inteligence should better prepare. Really? Isn't that kinda obvious? What, is someone going to come out and argue they should be LESS prepared? Also, Fareed gives not one single example of where or how US Intelligence could improve. This is silly.
Agree, shallow it is. Then again shallow is the best descriptor for journalism of today. CNN excels in the inane and shallow.
Agreed. An article below Fareed's considerable intelligence. Why state the obvious, Fareeh?
The problem with our intelligence system is that the user of intelligence too often dictates the product of intelligence. What clear and unmistakable goal does the current administration have for our intelligence agencies. My god, Obama cannot even figure out why it is in our national interests to play lapdog for the Arab League and UN in Libya. We are in Libya for humanitarian reasons and we kill grandchildren?
Obama lies, the Media is clueless and Americans die.
there is another train of thought, and much more believable than the obamist fareed's, is that obama kicked this off with the undermining of mubarak so as to set off a chain of events that would eventually destroy america's source of oil. just another piece of barry's alynsky based strategy to cripple america.
Uh, reality check, Sunshine. What's "believable" about ANY President deliberately sabotaging his own country.
I believe such rants are racially motivated. THAT, Sunshine, IS believable.
look at obama's total body of work as POTUS. he is an incredible tool or feels he has no stake in this country. radicals like mr. obama feel the ends justifies the means. lenin, mao, castro, all believed that by destroying their own societies they could rebuild in a socialist/marxist/progressive utopia. mr. obama has many in the progressive movement both in congress and outside that have bought into this destroy and rebuild method. you only have to look at what was done to our healthcare system to know what they are all about. so collapse the saudis and ignore the iranians. etc. i will ignore your racist comment.
I commend the writer. When you continually fail, as the US has militarily and diplomatically since WWII, you have to accept that bring big and stupid can probably be improved upon!
Thank you Fareed for your observations. I'm 50 years old, and though I've not "seen it all", I've seen my share of global, national, and local crises. What has always struck me, more appropriately befuddled & stunned me, is America's lack of foresight in so many critical arenas; military, foreign affairs, domestic policy & legislation,etc.. It has always appeared to me that we seem to function from a reactionary stance, which of course is an inevitable reality that any nation or individual must face periodically, however as a nation, it is hardly a firm foundation for progress and strength. I readily acknowledge that I am a common man, no link to the inner machine of politics, policy, and priorities, but I believe that our divisive, corrosive political environment over the past 20+ years has left us unable to craft a shared vision of the future, of our priorities, and the ability to think ahead. Our leaders, beholden to the next election cycle, ultimately support or create policies that are politically expedient rather than well thought out blue prints for the future. God forbid that a politician stands up to ask the American people to invest in a policy that may not show immediate results, but may require time to be fully realized and for the benefits to be reaped. This short sightedness is not limited to simply strategic intelligence gathering or military readiness, it hampers the growth and progress of all our institutions; education, physical infrastructure, scientific research, the health care system, the efficacy and vitality of Government agencies.
I know that I am painting with a very bleak and broad brush, and that there are good men & women working very hard to look ahead and plan for the future. However, more often than not I feel as if we are operating under knee jerk reactions rather than a stable stance, forged by foresight, logic, reason, science & ethics.
I worked in the Criminal Justice field for many years and witnessed countless examples of policies built by fear, ignorance, and political posturing. It is another branch of Government that requires drastic "re-think." One example is how we respond to drug addiction and drug use. It is easy for a politician to stand up and say that they will be "tough on crime" and vote to allocate funds for police & prisons -yet it is political suicide for a politician to stand up and say, "I think we may need to re-think this based on what we now know regarding the medical science of addiction, the statistical failure of our current drug policy, the amount of funds invested in to a failed policy, and current examples of different strategies utilized by other countries that may be more effective and less costly."
There are simply too many examples of our inability to learn from our own history. The shackles of special interests & an uninformed populace seem to stunt courageous political thought. How do we get to a place where we can apply these lessons? How do we decrease the limitations of undo influence and outright ignorance? I'm afraid my vision of the future is a dim and dark one .
to say the US didnt really predict the arab spring is correct, technically, because america is covertly involved in some of these countries and has been financially involved for decades. our intelligence no douubt knows abouut the blowback of funding dictators.
It sounds like a defense of the very structures Zakaria criticizes. Let us stick with the devil in the details. Many CIA analysts, in a televised statements during Gates confirmation hearing complained that Gates DELIBERATELY made up the strengths of Soviet Union, as the politicians then demanded. Soviet Union, from military to economy, was deliberately misrepresented as considerably stronger then it was. Of course, there were many of those that predicted the breakup. That was not LUCK, Mr. Zakaria. That was KNOWLEDGE OF FACTS. Even more crystal clear was the case of financial meltdown. Many, many financial analysts predicted it, and predicted it IN FULL DETAIL, including the nature of FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS that were the cause. They were not LUCKY, they were KNOWLEDGEABLE. The problem with the elite decision makers is - they do not care to listen. They will allow stauts quo, with all the attendent benefits to those who profit from it - go for as long as possible. They will deal with the crisis when it hits us over the head. And they know that an american is the most patient creature in the world. This allows politicians to craft the response, to suit their political interests. Again, nobody has ever asked those who fully predicted fiancial meltdown for advise on how to proceed. Oh, no, no! Such troublesome people should not be heard - let those who screwed up be the saviours. They are "respectable", while those who saw it all coming, remain untrustworthy, outsiders to the political system. These two are proven as predictable and knowable events. The question remains: why is nobody - especially mainstream press - not listening? And why is it that "the respectability" is determined by keeping one's positions closely alligned with the inner power circle? Our institutions of high learning have become nothing more then the amen corner for the elite thinking. There will be no "better way" to respond; response will be guided by the perceived self-interest of the inner circle, and to the extend that they are self-deluded - we will pay the price for their hubris.
when is this idiot gonna get it? we staged all these events, and used people like fareed to blame them.
Wonder why Zakaria can't get a real job . His solution to everything is to write a sophomoric essay.
I agree with other comments, Fareed how do you know the CIA didnt cause the Arab spring or knew nothing about it?
This point is worth dwelling on. It is NOT true that certain events were not predictable. it is also NOT true, that even if some people predicted the events, that it was pure luck. Not true. This was not the case of some individuals, who through some anecdotal evidence were able to predict major events. No. Many financial analysts were absolutely on the money predicting the nature of financial collapse. While nobody can predict a DATE, when a system finally surrenders to the inevitable, one can ON THE BASIS OF FACTS, predict the crisis. Henry C. Liu comes to mind as a consultant that publishes volumes of economic analysis. He even predicted FED behaviour after the crisis, something most did not. He predicted export of inflation throgh money creation in US, resulting in the rise of commodities and the problems for developing world such as Brazil and China. It is clear that many of these countries had taken some of this analysis into consideration, and have put measures in place. In US, only special interest have a say in what will happen. Interest of the nation as a whole is not a priority. These "too big to fail" institutions have taken the position that they are doing God's work, and they ARE the state.
Sure, it will be great if there is a better way to respond. But if the drivers of our destiny do not recognize the dangers on the road - or think them manageable from their parochial point of view - there is no such thing as better response. The drivers of our destiny do not take the needs of the population into account when making the decisions. Their survibability and continued profit-making is the only concern. May be Karl Marx was onto something in his rules of capitalism. "Excessive focus on profits undermines profitability". And our country's profitability has been jeopardized by reckless guardians of our economic and political system.
"The vast American national security bureaucracy has become a world unto itself – massively funded, geared to its own strange internal dynamics and rarely subjected to external tests."
Yawn. A truism about all large bureaucracies - including the one that will run ObamaCare. What else is new?
It is when the United States neglects the basic tenet that the nation's vital national interests are the mother's milk of foreign policy that mistakes are made.
The National Command Authority is well staffed and well prepared to deal with contingencies. However domestic political considerations often block, delay, or tilt decision making.
Aye there's the rub.
For some reason my comment isn't showing up. Has anybody else had this problem before? Any solutions?
Very well said, We are never prepared for anything that happens, yet we help everyone else prepare for their disasters, when will the people of the US wake up.........?
An interesting note on giving corporations a tax break in order to help them compete globally. The richest companies, including those in the financial and energy sectors among others, are using their wealth not to invest in their business or their workers, but to pay themselves giant bonuses and boost their dividends by buying their own shares. There is an article from Citizens for Tax Justice titled "Congress Should End Oil & Gas Tax Breaks".
Muin is right, the only reason JP Morgan and co. survived the crash was because they gamed the system so that the vulnerable taxpayers would cover them. What part of "carefully managing risk" involves coming close to crashing the global economy? What is so talented about dealing in government backed securities and credit default swaps? They may as well go to a slot machine in Las Vegas and ask the stranger next to them to cover their losses. Despite what the media says, there is absolutely no justification for paying those criminals $250,000 just to "retain their talent". I'm sure there are plenty of other, more responsible, just as talented people who would take the job without the bonuses.
While the root causes of the recession may be laid at the door of Goldman Sachs and its peers, they actually – probably did nothing wrong legally. In fact if you take the axiom that the over-riding goal of a corporation in a capitalist society is to obey the law and maximize profits – they played by the rules. To do otherwise is the fastest way to get a CEO fired by his board.
No, I lay 99% of the blame directly on the doorsteps of the Congress. They made the law, and the rules. They are supposed to be the referees of a fair, open and equal opportunity capitalist market place. But what they actually did was very different. Cronyism, accepting large 'contributions' in return for drafting 'special' tax breaks for powerful corporations, leaving gigantic loopholes for their corporate friends, and falling over themselves to scoop up a few crumbs from this enormously powerful complex was their response. Deregulation, failure to oversee, and unadulterated ignorance was the order of the day. Conflicts of interest surrounded White House appointments, and much of the advice given was self serving. The recession was really totally predictable, although George Bush when warned a full year about the shakiness of the mortgage derivative market chose to listen to messengers with an ideological message that suited the political line, abetted by an ex CEO of Goldman Sachs, his Treasury Secretary.
That’s just the problem; actions that should be illegal are made to be perfectly fine. And why they are perfectly fine is a problem also because it facilitates the buying and selling of legislation. That being said, you can’t lay 99% blame on Congress because Congress can’t force those companies to pawn their toxic assets and risky instruments (although you can partly blame Congress for being foolish enough to take up those toxic assets off of their hands). Congress didn’t come up with the stupid idea of Collaterized Debt Obligations. Congress didn’t prey on people who could clearly not afford to pay certain loans. Congress also can’t control the structure of these giant corporations. The executives were hiring members of the board and the board appointed the executives, so the shareholders were effectively locked out of the loop and summarily screwed over.
Essentially what you’re saying is paramount to deciding to blame somebody else when you trip over a rock because they didn’t tell you it was right in front of you. Once again, Fareed is being naïve in giving a hand wave to JP Morgan and co. because all the evidence points to the fact they indeed did know that what they were selling was toxic. Do you know what happened when their buyers started to catch on and decided not to stop buying that crud? They decided to sell them amongst themselves and reward themselves commissions/bonuses at tremendous risk to their own companies! (Check out this article for information on Merrill Lynch http://www.propublica.org/article/the-subsidy-how-merrill-lynch-traders-helped-blow-up-their-own-firm). Just because the cop decides to look the other way is no excuse to exonerate the criminal. That’s a good point to place blame on the cops for falling asleep on the job, but because of the outrageous disdain for the American public (households who held their mortgages) and destructively selfishness of so-called “careful” CEOs, it really should be about 80% financial sector – 20% Congress.
two comments:
1- when you said:***Of all the possible events in the Middle East, the most complex by far would be serious protests in Saudi Arabia. If you think gas prices are high now, imagine oil at $200 a barrel.****
I just want you to look at the food prices in the world, not only USA and Canada, when the oil barrel goes $200, as then you will have to visualise hunger protests globally as well. just imagine!!
2- CIA or any other intelligence agency does not need to wait for an event to predict consequences of the outcome of an event at many levels: locally , regionally or internationally. CIA has sufficient established assets of knowledge of a key component to be able to predict consequences, and that is " capacity" to handle an event, local capacity is first as this will mainly decide how the event will lead that locality into a change, let that be prompt change of regieme change, leader change or chaos, civil disobedience, call it what you call it, but if the local environment ( educationally, politicaly maturity, economically, culturally, repeat culturally etc.) cannot handle that event or change then the prediction is very simple based on socio-economic studies or experts' opinion to be able to guess or predict what are the short term and long term consequences, it is not the event it is the consequences of the event that matter, right. Mind you disasters begin when the event exceeds the local capacity to handle it!! There are many living examples, they are disasters in progress, look around you.
The events were certainly imaginable – and even predictable in a 'sometime in the future' sort of way.
But American foreign policy has always relied on force and massive power to keep the peace.
Technology, marketing, education and organization moved far faster and more nimbly than our 'solution' could possibly deal with. The revolution in Egypt was basically over before the Pentagon had even realized it was real.
The old 'solutions' have become irrelevant in terms of fixing deeply rooted civil unrest in autocratic societies. The US military is no doubt effective at controlling and beating up an aggressive nation trying to expand its borders; but there was no real solution for Iraq, Afghanistan, and the domino topplings in the arab world of this year.
We need a radically different approach in trying to maintain the balance of power, and our avaricious demand for raw materials. In this respect China seems to be doing rather better than us – and spending vastly less money on it.
What a pointless, vapid, intellectually empty piece. Why even publish such drivel. He proposes nothing. Cash in the bank? For what and from where? It's not money that makes the beauracracy slow, it's layer after layer of laws, policies, and guidelines that accumulate everytime something goes wrong or someone makes a mistake. The government purposefully takes away flexibility and regional authority in favor of an endless series of hierarchical approvals and documentation.
Maybe the rest of the world needs to learn to take care of itself. The US is now tapped out, and has been for decades. We're temporarily closed, please take care of yourselves. Maybe ask China or Russia for help, but don't hold your breath.
can anyone tell me when GE and Exxon will pay taxes on their billions in profits derived here in the USA?
everybody wants a good prediction to be better prepared but they all think astrology is anti-christian. now, can you all say thank you, jean dixon?
–What J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others that weathered the financial crisis did was to carefully manage their risk, preparing themselves for sharp shifts in the market.–
Is this guy serious? It was the excessive risk taking on mortgage-backed financial crud that caused the recession in the first place. Is every Indian ex-patriot in love with corporate America and wall street? You can have each other as far as I'm concerned.
Re JohnLi Agreed. Not only did they (Goldman and others) cause the crisis with their "Market Making" trades, but they too would have gone under if they were not bailed out by the gov't. When Treasury bailed out AIG, a lot of the money went to Goldman and others. This wasn't enough money to shore them up so they also got a loan from Warren Buffet, then they were made a bank so they could borrow more money at 0% interest from the Federal Reserve–all out of the public view.
If you don't MEASURE it, you can't KNOW it. Our intelligence failures point directly to a failure to measure, establish hierarchy within those measurements, and draw objective trended conclusions on likely outcomes. Successful businesses are adept at this (via Business Intelligence) – perhaps the Fed should take some lessons....
I certainly agree with your contention that the American security bureaucracy has become a world to itself and, I would add, lacks sufficient public scrutiny. But as a member of that community during the Cold War I do take exception to your statement that it is perpetually unprepared for global events, such as the fall of the Soviet Union.
The CIA tracked and repeatedly reported that the USSR was a knight dying in its armor, that it was imploding economically and disintegrating politically. It did not predict that Mikhail Gorbachev would dissolve of the Central Committee on December 21, 1991 and himself resign four days later, but from the standpoint of formulating contingency plans and strategies for the post-Soviet era, was a knowledge of the exact date really significant?
By the same token, the CIA gave the leadership lots of advance notice that the East German government was moving ahead with plans to seal off East Berlin and the rest of East Germany. They planned to lay over 90 miles of concertina wire in 24 hours – an impossible feat without bunkering vast rolls of the stuff at strategic waypoints ahead of time. They planned to reinforce their interim, barbed wire “wall” with contingents of armed border guards spaced (if memory serves) 100 meters apart along the entire perimeter; several thousand troops had to be assembled, trained, armed and pre- positioned in anticipation. True, we did not predict that they would make their move at midnight on a Saturday (a clever choice), but Secretary of State Dean Rusk and the Security Council had ample warning to decide how the United States would respond once the barrier was erected. Here too, advanced knowledge of an exact date would have been a "nice-to-know" but it was hardly a "need-to-know".
Too many critics ignore the fundamental weakness that hobbles intelligence reporting: CIA’s Director serves “at the pleasure of the president.” That subjects the Agency and its analysts to immense political pressure, for crises are good for business, for employment and for tax revenues. The Military Industrial Complex (and their Congressmen) did not want to hear that the "missile gap" was a fantasy or that the USSR was on the verge of collapse. Nor does it wish today to heed the voices from within the Joint Chiefs – namely, that our present threats are more economic than military and that to retain our pre-eminence we should re-focus our resources on domestic needs: education, health care and infrastructure.
If the new National Security team can bring about such a transformation, it will indeed put America back on the road to excellence.
Complete pile of gobbledygook by the author.
So happy to see a lot of Americans are into the Middle East problems, however something very important it is a fact that for the last decades Conspiracy Theories were dominating around here, no one can deny the role of CIA, MOSSAD etc… but please please do not undermine or take away credit form Arab people. this was suppose to happen many years ago but Iraq 1st war then 9/11 and another Iraq war postponed the revolutions. Previous events have a huge damage on our region and were exploited in a very ugly way by Arab dictators. Thank you all
Hey Fareed is that 80B per year well spent now with bin laden dead? Any thoughts on if the CIA or intelligence community had anything to do with it?
though so
Fareed Zakaria – pimping for Obama and Soros. A plant. A stooge. Bought and paid for by The One. This explains the fawning interview he had with his paymaster, George Soros.
Fareed Zakaria – pimping for Obama and Soros. A plant. A stooge. Bought and paid for by The One. This explains the fawning interview he had with his paymaster, George Soros.
All this bragging about killing Bin Laden will one day come back and bite Obama in his ass. All the Taliban has to do
Is keep those human bombs coming at a steady rate, and he's toast.
Somebody give me what they think was a good reason for doing that, other than thinking it will help get him re elected.
Bin Laden should have been killed, and taken and dumped at sea....period, end of story.
It's just mind boggling how stupid those in power can be.
Hi Fareed,
Your take at and during your CNN Sunday morning, 5/15/11 TVcast on India's corruption, and the world map showing where the worst and corrupt countries & areas in the world should have shown the USA as the most "RED." You only showed the small fry corruption. Look at the US finanacial disaster which is still far from a solution and causing the whole world to unnecessarily suffer resulting from its blatant manipulation of its financial institutions leading into the "financial bubbles" which eventually blew up. The lonely American tax payers are now made to pay up and carry into their future generations trillions of debt burden on their backs. Who allowed this debacle to happen? Who are the responsible people behind this corruption? Most of these men and women are still in positions of power and influence. What do you think these people will do next? Yes, you are very, very wrong! You need to review your TAKE and dig deeper and deepest. Hope & pray that you'll do better next time. God bless your work. Regards.
Roy
Netanyahu: "America is Easy to Push Around (English Subtitles)"
Yes there should realize the opportunity to RSS commentary, quite simply, CMS is another on the blog.