Here's a transcript of my conversation with Arianna Huffington, editor in chief of the AOL "Huffington Post" Media Group; Joe Klein, political columnist for TIME magazine; Nicholas Wapshott, Reuters contributing columnist; and Reihan Salam, who writes The Agenda blog on National Review Online. We talk about U.S. debt, President Obama and much more. Here's a lightly edited transcript of our discussion:
Fareed Zakaria: Joe, you've been around a long time. Have you seen anything like what happened over the last month?
Joe Klein: Well, in the several centuries that I've been reporting, I can say no. And, in fact, we're in a position now in this country that is the exact opposite of where we were when I began as a journalist 40 years ago.
In those days, there were real divisions in the country. We were still in the midst of the Civil Rights Movement. People were getting killed. There were huge riots in the country. The Anti-War Movement had taken a turn toward the irrational. Weathermen were blowing up college buildings on college campuses, but the political system worked.
There were filibusters against the civil rights legislation, but they were defeated. The Democrats did not use the debt ceiling – and we had one at that point – to stop funding for the Vietnam War. Impeachment was bipartisan and only happened because Republicans thought that Richard Nixon had done violence to the constitution.
Now, we have the exact opposite. It seems that, the way I read the polls, 60 percent of the people were in favor of the kind of policies that President Obama and the Gang of Six wanted, to deal with this deficit, long-term deficit, through a mix of revenues and budget cutting. And yet, that national consensus was thwarted by the minority of a minority in the Congress.
So, no, I've never seen anything like this before.
Fareed Zakaria: Now, you look at this and you say – I heard you somewhere say, 'If Obama thought he was playing for independents by being the grownup in the middle, it didn't work.' Why?
Arianna Huffington: Right. Well, you see – in your own CNN poll, you see over 60 percent of independents are opposed to the deal. So if Obama thought that this was really his way of saying to independents, 'I'm the grownup in the room. I'm going to compromise. Go with me.' It's not working.
So, on purely economic terms, this is not working. I mean, you had Larry Summers on your show, saying that without growth you're not ever going to be able to really deal with the deficit crisis. You had JPMorgan and – with their top clients this week saying that this deal is going to reduce growth by a point and a half.
So you had basically a pretty reasonable consensus among the economists, this is not the right policy long term to control the deficit. So if this is a political play from Obama, it failed because independents are turning on him and the deal.
Fareed Zakaria: But Reihan, you see this very differently. You see this actually as a turning point in the growth of the American welfare state.
Reihan Salam: Well, I do. And I think that you made a remark, an important remark, in your – in your opening statement. You were talking about how this year, this fiscal year, it's a cut of about $22 billion.
Now, that is not really terribly dissimulative. We could complain about the fact that, well, perhaps we should have more stimulus, and, again, we could talk about that at length. But I think that actually this debt limit deal doesn't actually do all that much of consequence. In fact, the cuts in it are smaller than what you saw in Bowles-Simpson, granted Bowles-Simpson also created revenue increases. But I think that, actually, it's not really what people imagine it to be.
Fareed Zakaria: Couldn't you make the case though, Joe, that if – if – I mean, I'm – if you just play this out, and let's assume Congress remains as paralyzed as ever, the deadlock, the commission deadlock –
Joe Klein: I don't think you can assume that.
Fareed Zakaria: But let's assume the commission deadlocks, the guillotine falls, you get all these cuts, half in defense, half in discretionary non-entitlement –
Reihan Salam: You'll have a patch, unfortunately.
Fareed Zakaria: And then – and then Obama says, fine. Now I'm going to – I'm going to let the Bush tax cuts expire. You effectively get Simpson-Bowles because you get about $2.5 billion in spending cuts and about $3 trillion of tax increases.
Reihan Salam: And that's why some of the – if I may – hysteria around this conversation coming from some of our friends on the left or center is notable, because, again, this deal is part of a larger architecture. It's not just one decision and ergo everything is decided. The president has considerable leverage. And, also, you know, after a presidential election, were he to be re-elected...
Nicholas Wapshott: But he's still – he's still got to be re-elected, and this makes – what happened last week has made it much more difficult for him. Because the political argument has now moved on to exactly the Tea Party territory. They've done terribly well. They might not consider themselves victorious because they haven't got all the bits and pieces that they're interested in, but many of those were conflicting in any case.
But what they have done is moved the national conversation on to the fact that you may not raise taxes in any circumstances and you may not do all of the measures that the president needs in order to get himself re-elected, which would boost the economy, which actually would allow the prosperity to allow people to pay off the debt.
Reihan Salam: Or, rather, you're not going to get a bipartisan consensus around raising taxes. But I think that that's what you want.
Fareed Zakaria: Arianna, what happens to the left? Will you rent hundreds of buses for Obama's next rally the way you did for Jon Stewart's?
Arianna Huffington: Well, actually, I think that this right-left distinction has nothing to do with this debate because there is a real consensus, as Joe said, among the American people that we need both revenue increases and ways to encourage the creation of jobs.
I mean, there is a real consensus around big infrastructure projects, for example. Even if we're at full employment, we would need big infrastructure projects because our infrastructure is crumbling. There is consensus around a national payroll tax holiday.
I mean, there are a lot of interesting proposals on the table, but they are not easily divisible as left or right.
Reihan Salam: I'm not sure if there's a consensus around it.
Joe Klein: The most – and this goes back to what Nick was saying – the most important consensus among the American people is that this stuff that Washington is obsessed with isn't nearly as important as the economy. And – and I think that that is the –
Fareed Zakaria: What Arianna is talking about is ways to get the economy growing. You think they don't make that connection?
Joe Klein: No, no, no. I think the American people believe that this whole long-term deficit and debt debate is irrelevant to their lives. What's relevant is the fact that the economy is sagging. You mentioned that –
Fareed Zakaria: But then they would be in favor of Keynesian fixes, but they are not in favor as far – I mean, are they?
Joe Klein: They are in favor of everything. The answer is yes. Yes –
Fareed Zakaria: Yes to everything.
Joe Klein: Yes to tax cuts, yes to more benefits in Medicare and social security, yes to budget cuts, yes to more benefits.
Nicholas Wapshott: But there's no chance there's going to be a stimulus bill, is there? Which is actually the –
Joe Klein: Well, I don't know what's – I don't know what's coming down the pike, but I – but there is one thing that you said at the beginning that I would quibble with, and it's this. In the days before the debt ceiling deal was made, U.S. treasury bonds, especially the 10-year bond, were strengthening in value, not weakening. The interest rates were dropping.
There are two reasons for that. One is that our bonds are questionable except for every other country in the world, which is more questionable. But also, the most important thing is that the bond market senses that we're heading toward a double dip recession. And it's predicting that the value of bonds increases in recessions. Interest rates will continue to go down, believe it or not.
Fareed Zakaria: I would agree with you, Joe. I just say, Robert Rubin says this often - he spent, you know, a lifetime in markets. He says, 'The bond market is with you until the day it is against you.' And you don't want to be in a situation where your debt is so large that small changes in interest rates cause massive damage to your economy, which is what's happening to Italy right now.
I want to ask you, Nick. You wrote a book about Keynes and Hayek. You think that the Tea Party has taken the lead. It strikes me as fascinating. This is a time for Keynesianism, if there ever was one. You are in a liquidity trap. You are in a period of deflation. Call it what you will, you're in a situation where it does seem as though there isn't much demand in the economy, for whatever reason, mostly because I think everyone has lots of debt.
That's when government steps in, but you're saying that that's the moment in which Keynes has been discredited?
Nick Wapshott: Absolutely. The Tea Party, they may not know it. I don't suppose they have ever read Friedrich Hayek, but, in fact, they have been following what Friedrich Hayek wrote about at great length. He was talking mostly about politics – his economics weren't as reliable.
But what politically he said is that there should be smaller government. There's no doubt that the Tea Party has put small government or smaller government on the table, and that's now the thing that dominates in the Republican Party.
Fareed Zakaria: Arianna, how do you explain this? That – that you have had the biggest financial crisis and recession, one would argue in some part caused by the irresponsibility of the private sector, and the response – not just in the United States, but across Europe – has been that the right has been strengthened and the left has been discredited?
Arianna Huffington: I think the reason is that the public mistrusts government because the government has bailed out major financial institutions that brought us to the brink of collapse, that basically government now is providing welfare for many entrenched interests. Government is not there any longer just to support the weakest among us or the most vulnerable.
I mean, you see that this sort of intersection of lobbyists, big corporations and Washington is really what people are turning against. If you – when somebody –
Fareed Zakaria: And they think of the left as the party of government?
Arianna Huffington: Exactly. While – even though, in truth, I mean, the government has bailed out many more powerful institutions. I mean, even now, even though – even Paul Ryan came out in one brief moment in favor of ending subsidies to the oil and gas industry.
Fareed Zakaria: Joe, what do you think is on – is Obama's calculation? That, you know, go back to what Arianna was saying earlier, that if he was thinking that he's going to play the grownup and – and be – be the man in the middle, it's not working.
Joe Klein: I think that – I don't – I'm not sure that that's true. I – I think that it is working. I think that people still, you know, in my interactions with the American people, they liked the guy a lot. They respect him a lot. They don't feel that he's in touch with their lives, and his calculation is this, that as this goes on – and – you know, he will be the least damaged of all the various parties.
And that's what we've seen. His standing in – standing in the polls have gone down, but the Republicans' standing in the polls has plummeted. And so, you know, he's got to be feeling not terrific at this point, but not too bad politically either, because sooner or later the Republicans have to choose some candidate to oppose him and that candidate is going to have to make a calculation about how close to the Tea Party – which does remain a minority of a minority – how close to the Tea Party does the Republican presidential nominee want to be?
And so, I think the president is bemused by all of this and kind of horrified by the nonsense he's – you know, that he's had to deal with. He's made concessions, unlike – as Arianna was saying – unlike anything we've ever seen a Democratic president make before. He proposed raising the age of eligibility for Medicare to 67.
I'm not sure I'm in favor of that.
Arianna Huffington: I'm speaking this week to the National Association of African-American Journalists, you know, as faithful a base for Obama as ever, and their concern around jobs is palpable. I'm not saying that I would vote for him, but are they going to vote for – for him in the large numbers who came out in unprecedented numbers
Joe Klein: This is going to be an ugly – you're right. It's going to be an ugly campaign.
Nicholas Wapshott: The figures of unemployment is that African-Americans are 15 percent and plus, and the young people, the very –
Arianna Huffington: Forty-nine percent.
Nicholas Wapshott: Exactly. The very people who put Obama in are the people who are out of jobs. And it's the unemployment, it's the economy stupor, that still, is that's what's going to kill him.
Fareed Zakaria: And I'm guessing that you're going to say even with high – with high unemployment, a second stimulus will be wasted.
Reihan Salam: Well, what I will say is that when you look at the first stimulus, I think that what they needed to have understood is that after a financial crisis you're going to have a – a great contraction that's going to take a very long time, and that's why the patient application of infrastructure spending might have been sound, but they wound up discrediting the idea of that kind of sense of – now, that's not classic fiscal stimulus, rather it's thinking, well, if you can buy something cheap, that you ought to spend money on regardless, let's buy it at that time. And that's something that I think would have peeled off –
Fareed Zakaria: But the most ineffective part of the stimulus, though, was the part the Republicans insisted on, which was half of it, which was the tax cut.
Reihan Salam: We call it – I think that's fair to say, but the thing is, is it true – so – now, what they favored were permanent changes to the tax code, and I think that when you look a particular wrangling that's happening –
Fareed Zakaria: Well, that would be great for the budget deficit, have more permanent tax cuts.
Reihan Salam: But it's not just permanent tax cuts, it's also restructuring. We had a very narrow debate that happened very quickly, and I think that that was a big part of the danger of how that happened in.
Fareed Zakaria: Are you going to be enthusiastically supporting Obama in 2012?
Arianna Huffington: Well, listen, first of all, editorially, you know, we have been very critical of many of Obama's policies and our reporters, our journalists, everybody, you know, has been puzzled by the fact that while – while you have, as Joe said, again, a national consensus about prioritizing growth and jobs, Obama has not stood up for that.
I mean, that's really the key position that we have been taking. And we have reporters dedicated to putting flesh and blood on the statistics, because they're incredibly tragic.
What you said about young people, you had a story this week about the fact that you now have hundreds of thousands – not thousands – of students who go online to find sugar daddies to pay for their college debts, 248,000 that registered on one site called SeekingArrangements. And our reporter talked to them. You know, you have over $1 trillion in college debts, and these kids are graduating from college and are not able to get jobs with which to start repaying their debt.
I mean, this is just one area of our economy that we need to sound the alarm about because it involves, at the heart of it, the American dream and the possibility of bettering your life through education.
Fareed Zakaria: Nicholas, last thought. How will history look at all this? You write – you write about these things.
Nicholas Wapshott: Yes. I think that they'll see it as a defeat for the president, and they might – may see that it was the moment at which he became guaranteed a one-term president. It might go terribly wrong for him because I can't see what he can do.
He could drastically cut taxes. It's not such a silly idea, and actually it would be a Keynesian idea, but you got to cut taxes for people who will spend the money, not save it, not spend – not pay off their credit card bills, not buy another house in the Bahamas. We've got to give it to people who can spend it.
So, in the big picture, this is, in terms of the Keynes-Hayek clash, it's the latest battleground. And Hayek, I think, it's one- nil, and it's only half time. We could have had 15 months to go before we find out what happens.
I am generally pro-mosque but was dissapointed in the reporting. YMCAs and Jewish Community Centers dont have churces or temples attached. So the reated parallel to these kind of organizations was misleading. The question should have been asked as to whether the interviewee had a personal financial stake in the project, since he is a real estate developer. Plus, I just cant imagine that 700 people could have been moblized to oppose a project without someone getting wind of it. All in all the interview wasn't satisfying although I am glad to have heard the other side of the story.
US DOLLAR IS LOOSING VALUE, WE NEED TO STOP THIS LOOK AT THE STATISTICS..WE NEED TO MAKE A CHANGE FOR OUR FUTURE..independent research done watch data:
America is simply being dismantled by Obama and the other globalist marxist socialists and fascists piece by piece.
“We’ve Really Begun To Turn The Economy Around” Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, D-FL, DNC Chair Yes the marxist Democrats certainly have turned the economy around. On it’s head.
Within 48 hours of Wasserman-Shultz’s announcement, the stock market reacted to her good news with the steepest price drop since 2008. The Dow collapsed 512.76 points to 11,383.68; the broader S&P 500 lost 4.8 per cent to 1200.07, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 5.1 per cent to 2556.39
Within 72 hours of this announcement, the United States of America's credit rating was downgraded by Standard and Poor for the first time in U.S. history.
Homeland Security should lock these terrorist vermin up before they launch their next assault against America
and your IQ is? probably around the 15th percentile....or am I too generous?
Re:Ground Zero Mosque
I have never seen you do a more uncritical interview on your show. Are you vying for the Larry King award ?
Where is the money coming from to build this Mosque in the shadow of Ground Zero ???
I hear experts for whom I have great respect (i.e., Fareed) indicating that Obama did not do well in his negotiations with the GOP-Tea Party to get the debt ceiling raised. But what do all of you think he should have done in order to have been judged "successful"? Held out until the Republicans agreed to revenue increases? When you are the President and fully aware of the severe consequences of not making an agreement and you become fully aware that you are negotiating with people who will never compromise on increasing revenues– what are your options?
I agree. I am liberal , but I think that the "Media Elite" are just as dogmatic as the Tea Party. Anything short of complete annihilation of another idea is defeat for them. Plus Obama said two weeks ago in speech that he wasn't raising taxes until 2013 anyway.
I tried to reach you unsuccessfully immediately you ended your interview of Al Gamal;I couldn't believe,given the controversial nature of the issue,that you'd close the interview without asking him about another vital part of the equation:the sensibilities of 911 survivors,relatives of the fatal victims & the sentiments of a traumatized populace which had undergone the worst foreign attack on the United States.Admittedly,Al Gamal was not the 911 culprit,but he was very much aware that "criminals who'd hijacked"his religion were responsible.You essentially abused the trust of your audience in an ineffective attempt to portray your guest as a victim!I believe you owe your audience an explanation.Besides this,you have been an authentic gem!
I am so tired of Arianna Huffington, so out of touch w/the base she thinks representing!
I never believed in media elite until the president, and I am as liberal as they come but I am also pragmatic. You all are as bad as Tea Party. If we don't get everything we want, then somehow the president is weak. The debt ceiling was not for the president to decide it for Congress. Tax cuts for the wealthy that was a compromise for the middle class. We got public healthcare but no public option, well maybe for your elites and wealthy people you all are used to getting everything you want it was a failure but I think its compromise. You would have rather the healthcare debate go the way of Bill Clinton? In the real world if we half of what we ask for we are happy! Ariana, Jon Stewart, and Bill Mahr were some of my favorite liberal voices . I now find you all condescending and inflexible and narrow minded as the Tea party. Maybe you all have drunk the kool-aid the Fox news provides, your criticisms seem eerily similar! Real liberals not media elites think the president has done excellent job given what he had to deal with. Do we agree w/everything no? But in real world were are not millionaires and famous entertainers; we don’t expect 100% of what we ask!
BTW- Arianna's suggestion African Americans aren’t going to vote for the president on GPS today absolutely ridiculous and proves how out of touch you really are.
Ariana should go back to were she came from, some where in Eastern Europe, or she should work more on her accent, she sound terrible on tv.
Does Fareed or his staff read these posts or are we all just talking to strangers? If this isn't the way to ask questions of Fareed, then how do we do so? I would very much like to have him answer the question I posed.
Wapshott -"in terms of the Keynes-Hayek clash, it's the latest battleground."
An ideological sclerosis was the crowning achievement of the grand deal in the Congress. How instinctivly clever the GOP and the Tea Baggers were, defending Hayek's laissez-faire economy, without – most probably – knowing who he was. They combated fiercely Obama's Keynesian intervenationalism, as if it was a road to perdition.
Fareed,can you please get some people on your show to make it clear to a lot of people like me who couln't understand why some people worry when goverment is too big and some people worry when goverment is too small and yet when terrible things happen to the nation they expect the goverment to come to the aid of all the peopple, e.g. the last reccession.
02:22 PM ET
Comments (11 comments)
Arianna Huffington what a worthless piece of flesh.
she's not the only idiot involved in this discussion...just the biggest. who would listen to these wack jobs?
btw, they are not totally worthless...they can serve as bad examples.
Both sides are to blame! Obama and the Tea Party were BOTH trying to score political points instead of doing what was best for the country. The two sides should have made a reasonable compromise in a reasonable time, then fought it all out politically in the next election. This was incredibly bad for the country!
It's feeling to me that the US is imploding. No government at all would be far better than the government we have.
The Klein, Huffington, et al was a lively and worthwhile discussion. But I think it would have been even better if you had had only 2 guests rather than 4. None of them really had the time/opportunity to share their ideas in enough depth to make it more substantial.
Generally, you ask well thought out, penetrating, analytical questions. But your queries to Huffington were partisan pablum. If you cannot ask her more meaningful, policy based questions, do not have her on your show.
Obama is perfectly pulling down USA to the last bit.
Have you guys noticed that Americans are now working at China? Heck some of them even work under paid and in long hours.
Speaking of turn of events isnt it?
We need to figure out how to recycle wealth in the country as well as we recycle garbage.
I would completely wreck that chick Arianna.
Does Ari or Fareek speak English?
ok sell you house them and move there to help those people. All of this is so stupid, how about the rich in Hollywood give their money to the starving people, not only there but in this country as well. They should stop praying less and working more.
Hi, I get a 504 Gateway Timeout error when I browse this website. This sometimes means the server did not receive a timely response. I thought yuo may like to know. Thanks Mike
Pretty nice post. I simply stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to say that I've really loved surfing around your blog posts. After all I'll be subscribing to your rss feed and I'm hoping you write once more soon!
The Global Public Square is where you can make sense of the world every day with insights and explanations from CNN's Fareed Zakaria, leading journalists at CNN, and other international thinkers. Join GPS editor Jason Miks and get informed about global issues, exposed to unique stories, and engaged with diverse and original perspectives.
Every week we bring you in-depth interviews with world leaders, newsmakers and analysts who break down the world's toughest problems.
CNN U.S.: Sundays 10 a.m. & 1 p.m ET | CNN International: Find local times
Buy the GPS mug | Books| Transcripts | Audio
Connect on Facebook | Twitter | GPS@cnn.com
Buy past episodes on iTunes! | Download the audio podcast
Check out all of Fareed's Washington Post columns here:
Obama as a foreign policy president?
Why Snowden should stand trial in U.S.
Hillary Clinton's truly hard choice
China's trapped transition
Obama should rethink Syria strategy
Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.
RSS - Posts
Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.
Join 4,853 other followers