Editor's Note: Evan A. Feigenbaum is Adjunct Senior Fellow for East, Central and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. He writes for the blog Asia Unbound. The following is reprinted with the permission of the Council on Foreign Relations.
By Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR.org
1. Biden will find a China whose rise depends on economic growth but whose growth model is no longer sustainable.
Bluntly put, China’s leaders know that their capital-intensive, export-oriented approach is delivering diminishing returns and threatens to become a major political vulnerability for the government. The global economic crisis provided clear evidence that China’s export-driven economy is vulnerable to dips in demand in the rest of the world. Meanwhile, its dependence on investment has introduced distortions and imbalances into the Chinese economy.
Why should this matter to Biden and the United States?
Washington has spent years urging China to “rebalance” its economy: China produces much and consumes little, while the U.S. consumes much and wants to produce more (in part to sell to China). The bottom line is this: Beijing lacks the political stomach to undertake the toughest rebalancing steps (for instance, a rapid appreciation of the renminbi) but the good news is that, for self-interested reasons, its leaders are committed to rebalancing and will take some steps that are in the U.S. interest. And ironically, it’s probably worth asking whether, from a Chinese perspective, the ongoing U.S. debt crisis may even create some additional incentives to reckon with China’s own imbalances. To use the pregnant phrase from a Reuters article this morning, could China now “reprice U.S. risk”?
2. Biden will find a China whose social and political fabric is fraying.
A spate of headlines about truckers’ strikes and ethnic unrest shows just how brittle China’s polity is. China is beset by rural protest. It has one umbrella labor federation but faces sporadic and unpredictable strikes. China’s leaders have been effective at blunting the political effects of this discontent through a combination of carrots and sticks. Still, the challenges are growing. (And if you need more evidence, see the angry public reaction to China’s recent high-speed rail crash).
Why should this matter to Biden and the United States?
Two reasons: First, it means China’s leaders are preoccupied domestically and will be (mostly) uninterested in what the U.S. has to say. Second, it means China’s leaders will probably dismiss U.S. calls for political reform with even more than their usual vigor.
The regime is likely to meet challenges to its stability with an increasingly assertive mix of blandishments and force. Beijing (and local officials) will co-opt some demands of the discontented, not least by hiking wages and funding social housing (which, incidentally, may be marginally helpful in promoting economic rebalancing). But they will also build, deploy, and ultimately use paramilitary and police capabilities while cracking down hard as incidents arise.
3. Biden will find a China whose cautious leaders prefer incremental steps to bold action.
Beijing is facing this litany of development and social challenges against the backdrop of a cacophony of voices and views. Some voices represent entrenched domestic interests and are deeply invested in the status quo. For their part, as conservative technocrats, China’s leaders tend to split the difference between these competing groups. The result is a strong bias toward incremental policy change that should persist until China’s next leaders take office in 2012, and probably even beyond that. Here are two examples: Chinese leaders broke the renminbi’s peg to the U.S. dollar in 2010 but have chosen to implement their decision incrementally. Similarly, China voted for new sanctions on Iran in the UN Security Council but offered assurances to insulate Chinese interests from the fallout with Tehran.
Why should this matter to Biden and the United States?
For one, it means domestic Chinese allies will be essential if the U.S. is to elicit cooperation from China. Foreign pressure generally only works to the extent that it aligns with the objectives of one or another of the interest groups Chinese leaders seek to balance. But perhaps more important, it also suggests that while China’s commitment to rebalancing is real, this process will move more deliberately than anyone in Washington would like. From Beijing’s vantage point, an uncertain global environment, combined with inflationary pressures and a leadership transition at home, dictate caution rather than boldness. And the kind of incrementalism that Chinese bureaucrats favor isn’t going to mesh with American expectations and exhortations.
4. Biden will find a China that is being asked to assume global responsibilities but is (very) reluctant to do so.
To use my former boss, Bob Zoellick’s, famous phrase, China is a “stakeholder” at many of the top tables of international relations. It is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a WTO member, and a signatory to protocols on everything from ozone depletion to chemical weapons. It is a member of the G20 (which has largely supplanted the G8) and has a seat on the Financial Stability Board. But China has proven itself to be a reluctant stakeholder, often content to continue taking a free ride on the provision of public goods by others.
Why should this matter to Biden and the United States?
In some areas, China will push back hard against steadily building international expectations that it match its new economic clout to tangible actions in concert with others. Often, China will continue to insist that, as a developing country with its own litany of challenges, it cannot be expected to shoulder “unreasonable” burdens. And that will mean growing resentment of China, not least in the United States, as many argue that Beijing is punching below its weight. This, in turn, will feed a parallel process of resentment in Beijing, as some Chinese argue that the country is punching above its weight by supporting global growth and becoming a new demand driver in the face of a slowdown in the U.S. and austerity in Europe.
5. Biden will find a China where security hawks preen and posture.
Finally, here is something Biden should contemplate: For some in China’s strategic class, recent events have reinforced breathtaking conclusions about China’s “rise” and American “decline.” Many, both in and out of China’s government, want to test what Beijing’s growing weight might yield. They are confident of China’s growing strength. And they relish the opportunity to, at minimum, make Washington work harder for Chinese support of ostensibly shared objectives.
Why should this matter to Biden and the United States?
As I’ve blogged here on Asia Unbound before, the United States and China share more interests than, say, ten years ago (much less twenty or thirty years ago). But translating that common stake into complementary policies will remain elusive unless the two countries’ threat assessments begin to converge. And even when Beijing does share America’s sense of threat, countervailing interests too often obstruct cooperation. Combine that with other tensions in the relationship—not least in Asia, on everything from U.S. arms sales to Taiwan to the South China Sea—and the U.S. and China are likely to face a period of greater security tension.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Evan A. Feigenbaum.
© 2011 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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This guy is living in a pipe dream. Utterly unrealistics at best, delutional at worst.
I agree! I'm totally flabbergasted! What a nerd!
Sorry, I mean the author. Yet I'm not impressed by Biden. I doubt the diplomatic skills of this blunderbuss. A wrong word from him, China would demand its money back.
Boycott China now! They are vulnerable. They will collapse.
Countries all over the world are competing business in China. If the Chinese boycott U.S. products, they can buy other countries' products. If American boycotts Chinese products, all stores in the U.S. will be closed. Ask youself if you can find any store in this country has no merchandise made in China?
Boycott China now! They are vulnerable. They have gotten all they can out of exports and if we take them from them they are SCREWED.
I believe it is actually the other way around. China's economic policy has always been trying to achieve self-sufficiency. Stopping trade with China will actually hurt Americans more so than the Chinese. On my recent visit to China, I realize Chinese people are much more resourceful and much wiser when using their available resources. Western country tend to be reckless in their spending and their consumption of resources (Trying to get rich quick and easy). Instead of trying to fight against China, I believe it is time for us to learn from one another culturally.
I think he will find the Chinese are smarter than he is.
What a shallow and lopsided report from Feigenbaum. Shameful.
The author is a joke. China is still the most vibrate and sustainable economy on earth today. Base your argument on illusions won't get you anywhere.
What Joe Biden will find out is that America is full of BS artists/kwok heads such as Evan A. Feigenbaum.
I hope he finds a brain...or a scarecrow to borrow one from.
Lol, will the scarecrow let him "borrow" it, the white house doesn't seem to like returning anything they borrow.
This is BS, everything the author's saying is happening more in the states than in China!!!
1. Biden will find a China whose rise depends on economic growth but whose growth model is no longer sustainable.
Not true, China is turning into a consumer society, except that they produce he products, check the economist, they had an issue on how "dangerous" it was.
2. Biden will find a China whose social and political fabric is fraying.
Nope, there might be problems but at least China's willing to face them, look at the US, that's a prime example of social and political fabric that's fraying. Ex. Shrinking middle class, tea party...
3. Biden will find a China whose cautious leaders prefer incremental steps to bold action.
...........Do the author expect China to go to a real war over the South China seas or something, if it was the US there be a war by now, not that they aren't meddling in, more talk less action would be a good thing considering action in the US term would be war...
4. Biden will find a China that is being asked to assume global responsibilities but is (very) reluctant to do so.
No! China have a no interferance policy, it won't go and get involved into other countries' problems....unlike the US
5. Biden will find a China where security hawks preen and posture.
Ummm....isn't the hawk the US, yeah the US is the one updating all the security, there was an article on now people have to talk to the people that grope them...
&&& Author do a little research, this article is based on your own ASSUMTIONS, the reality is very different, everything you said applies to the US more so than China. {=.=} IDIOT!!!
That'snotTrue:[
Either you know nothing about China its wonderFul(ofcrap) govt or you are from there trying to pain a good pic the situtation.
Example: China wants to big a big boy in the world but doesn't want to actually do anything. They don't like committing any resources or time. Pollution – OH yes the Kyoto accords are great... cause they get money from it and don't have to control pollution... but they are the worlds biggest polluters. They pacify their people with counterfeit merchandise (which the govt could stop – but there is no desire to – same with intellectual property rights) and brainwash them with Red Propaganda.
As far as #3 – incremental steps to bold action... Yes so they drag their feet so they don't have to do anything. Look at North Korean. USA wasted its time with going through China. China did nothing but try to extort the USA about Taiwan.
And #1 – the reason their growth model is not sustainable is that they have been siphoning off hundreds of billion of dollars PER YEAR =from the US for over a decade. USA IS BUILDING their country. And they are killing their golden goose. Plus the people in their country are starting to make more money and their currency is low... the govt cant float this much longer
You never been outside the US have you? Listened to too many bias news.....you realize thr US pulled out of Kyoto during the Bush era, the US has no place to talk on this one and there is green projects going on in China...unlike the US.
What planet are you living on the US never build anything, they just spend, spend, spend.
Either you're a ignorant redneck or a tea party, since you're the only one saying such holier than thou things on this forum.
You're the one brainwashed by the red white and blue since everything you're saying are EMPTY ARGUMENT based on your assumtions...like the author.
"The bottom line is this: Beijing lacks the political stomach to undertake the toughest rebalancing steps "
What on earth is a broken economy us lecturing China?
What on Earth would a commie know ANYTHING about Economy. China only exists as a LEECH on the wealth of the West. They do not innovate, they do not create. They LEECH. You are a parasite on a real civilization. Time to get some bug spray. And you aren't from USA.
Ummm...........isn't the US the leech? You know using up all the world's resources while trying to pay as little as possible, you do realize that America use the most oil, fuel and other resources. The wars in the middle east being more for oil and everything.
&&& Why do you people always go for the innovation argument......since the american public school system is failing, if you don't don't know the ABCs, you can't write a proper sentence. And do your research, the east was there way before the west, India China, Bablyon, Egypt...and they invented some of the most basic stuff we use today, like paper, compass etc.
The fact that the "commie" is the number one manufacturer on earth speaks for itself.
This is not BS, everything the author's saying is happening in China!!!
As bad as it is,China is still millions time better than what she was and over 70% Chinese approve their leaders.
Sure they do... polls never lie... and over there if you say I dont like Chairman... they might just ask to see your id.
"on everything from U.S. arms sales to Taiwan "
This nullifies our right to complain any Chinese arm sale to US enemies.
So is Taiwan an enemy of China? China says it is part of China so how can it be an enemy of China? A rogue province? Taiwan was recognized in the UN before china was....
.................One last thing, you're a troll with no real argument.
What will Vice President Biden find in China?
Renminbi of cause!
Maotai! Of course, and plenty of Ganbei.
Like the author, he only sees what he chooses to see.
Biden couldn't find his @$$ with both hands!
I disagree...he merely has to open his eyes...cause he has his head up it.
First and foremost: Will Biden find China period?
As indicated in the article, China needs to "readjust" its economic emphasis to deal with rural poverty and to increase domestic consumption of what it produces. If the dollar declines internationally, perhaps because of the U.S.'s government budget deficits, China will have increasing difficulty in exporting goods to the U.S. And that also could forestall China's attempts to modernise its agriculture since China then could outbid Americans for U.S.-produced agricultural commodities, delaying at least one impetus for China to address domestic agriculture. Also as implied by the article and which is a reality, Chinese leaders are well aware of potential conflicts of interest with the U.S. Not mentioned is the fact that China's expenditures regarding its military are miniscule compared with those of the U.S., meaning that China is able to use its resources to improve its global position by peaceful means. In his visit to China Biden will need to recall that that China still is politically a unitary country, but also is beset with the problem of rampant corruption.
Joe will have trouble finding China.
Biden can learn to lick the as***s of the chinese atleast
I voted for Obama and Joe. My choice was them or McCain and Palin. One hell of a choice.
I wont pick the lesser evil any more...i'll vote Independent until one party or another pulls their collective heads out of their....*cough*...or just pray for that giant asteroid.
I with you on this, I will not vote for the lesser of two evils anymore either – It may end up being being even worse than the D's or R"s but I will take my chances anyway.
Well Bill...you got it wrong...way wrong...but a least you're man enough to admit it.
We could have done much worse, Bill. Personally I prefer Biden representing Obama (and the U.S.) to Palin (GAG)
representing McCain and his bunch of Republicans Incorporated. They would be selling us out to the Chinese at an
accelerated pace.
I agree with Blogon on all that other stuff/article but blah, blah, blah ...really I hope they spend the most time speaking about the technology for Green Energy( and divert the South Seas talks...don't think that is our business...have they advised us on our OIL WAR>>>REALLY!) and maybe speak of the history of China's great agrarian rural people and how they can help and be enpowered ; then throw in some Confucian ideals of leadership for good measure!
I think he is likely to find many Chinese people.
TOO many Chinese. And that is what will eventually destroy China...if not the whole damn world.
Maybe Biden will find his new home. Our leaders have a choice. They can continue to represent the interests of CHina or they can represent the people of this country. They CANNOT represent both. Biden has a choice. I think he is just dumb enough to mistake the mood of the country, right now. Better off just staying in China, Joe!
I hope he finds something to fill his mouth to keep him from speaking
is the author asking China to go and bomb the h3ll out of 3rd world countries like the rest of 1st world countries? Yea save your warmonagering for your tea bagger special.
He will find American Jobs. Bring the jobs back joe.
He will find Jobs in China.
He'll find politicians doing a far better job than he, his buddy Obama and the other 535 clowns that make up the congress are doing.
"politicians in China"? That's an oxymoron. There are only CCP authorities. No "politician" in China does anything that
crosses the CCP or PLA bosses. Biden will see only what the CCP wants him to see. And hear only what they want him
to hear.
That's b/c they don't have a DOLT in office like we do!
For item 1, China needs only incremental change. Its consumption sector is expanding. It is incorrect to say it is unsustainable without rapid change, which is both uncessary and impossible.
For item 2, China's political fabric HAS FRAYED somewhat, but the Chinese still view their political system favorably. It is one thing to be discontent about one's present situation but another to view political change as the solution. China's social fabric has also frayed somewhat, partly because there is modernity induced value change. China has very little ethnic problems as the Hans are very predominant and dominant. China has ample power to both dilute cultures and handle disturbances.
Items 3 and 4 are good points in terms of depicting reality without imputing fault.
Item 5 is reality but the reality is also that the calculating conditional doves, the top leadership, are in charge now and will likely be in charge for the relevant time frame. The objectives of the hawks (and the doves) will be achieved within this time frame. For examples, Taiwan cannot escape the fate of unification and a negotiated settlement in the SCS will have taken place. Tibet is of course a non-issue, as there will be demograhic change in Tibet to completely remove any thrust of any struggle. The mainland side will be far too strong within the time frame of the hawks possibly gaining power, hence, the possibilty of the hawks creating real problems will be low.
What will Biden find in China?
1: Children making sneakers
2: A vacation from all this tiresome dribble about US economic woes!
3. Kung Pow Chicken is not on the menu.
A nation that is doing better with the peace effort then U.S.A. BY STAYING OUT OF OTHER COUNTRY'S PROBLEMS.
How can we save American lives ? bring them all home to there children .
He will find out more toilet-embracing a55holes in China than USA.
What can Biden find in China? Chinese. duh
I live in DE and I am immensely embarased every time Biden opens his large mouth.
It apparently has nothing to do with DE, as we now have president (first from HI) who is the same way.
I hear that the Kenyans are now saying that he was born in the US.
the Chinese will steal Biden's mo-jo and have it replicated before he leaves t he country
we are at war with the yellow horde and the current administration has done everything possible to give aid and comfort to the enemy
please explain to me why we are still giving China foreign aid? free scholarships to their students?
Scolarships are based on grades and education level....in the east, education's highly valued....not so sure now of what's happening in the west now.
What will Biden find in China – Cheap lobor
What will Vice President Biden find in China?;
Ummm, Chinese people?
Biden will find Ho, Lo & Cho and he's not smart enough to hang with them so it's best he find a good place to eat enjoy his ribs & rice and go home before he makes a fool out of himself again.
Joe, foot-in-the-mouth, Biden is in China looking for a new source for teeth whitening strips......
The author is living in his dream.
Please pass this on!!!!! AUGUST 1st to Sept..1st
Did you see Diane Sawyer's special report?
They removed ALL items from a typical, middle class family's home that were not made in the USA.
There was hardly anything left besides the kitchen sink. Literally.
During the special they showed truckloads of items – USA made – being brought in to replace everything
and talked about how to find these items and the difference in price etc..
It was interesting that Diane said if every American spent just $64 more than normal on USA made items this year, it would create something like 200,000 new jobs!
I WAS BUYING FOOD THE OTHER DAY AT WALMART and ON THE LABEL OF SOME PRODUCTS IT SAID 'FROM CHINA’
FOR EXAMPLE THE "OUR FAMILY" BRAND OF THE MANDARIN ORANGES SAYS RIGHT ON THE CAN 'FROM CHINA’
I WAS SHOCKED SO FOR A FEW MORE CENTS I BOUGHT THE LIBERTY GOLD BRAND OR THE DOLE SINCE IT'S FROM CALIF. Are we Americans as dumb as we appear- or - is it that we just do not think.. The Chinese, knowingly and intentionally,
export inferior and even toxic products and dangerous toys and goods to be sold in American markets.
70% of Americans believe that the trading privileges afforded to the Chinese should be suspended..
Why do you need the government to suspend trading privileges? DO IT YOURSELF, AMERICA!!
Simply look on the bottom of every product you buy, and if it says ‘Made in China ' or 'PRC' (and that now includes Hong Kong), simply
choose another product, or none at all. You will be amazed at how dependent you are on Chinese products, and you will be equally amazed at what you can do without..
Who needs plastic eggs to celebrate Easter? If you must have eggs, use real ones and benefit some American farmer. Easter is just an example. The point is do not wait for the government to act. Just go ahead and assume control on your own.
THINK ABOUT THIS: If 200 million Americans each refuse to buy just $20 of Chinese goods, that's a billion dollar trade imbalance resolved in our favor. . . fast!!
Most of the people who have been reading about this matter are planning on implementing this on Aug. 1st and continue it until Sept. 1st. That is only one month of trading losses, but it will hit the Chinese for 1/12th of the total, or 8%, of their American exports.
Remember, August 1st to Sept. 1st!!!!!! START NOW.
Send this to everybody you know..
Let's show them that we are Americans and NOBODY can take us for granted.
If we can't live without cheap Chinese goods for one month out of our lives,
WE DESERVE WHAT WE GET!
Pass it on, America.....
Instead of doing it for just 1 month, why not try to do it all the time?
Your math is bad. 200 million x $20 is 4 billion. However, the vast majority of mark-ups is internal. The chinese get pennies on the dollar, let's say 5 cents. So $200 million goes to them. Note: even if we buy American we benefit greatly from the price lower effect imports provide. Mom and pop stores won't hesitate to rip you a new one. Don't believe me? Look at what lawyers and doctors charge.
I haven't bought a thing that says "made in China" for about ten years now (and I built my computer without Chinese
components!) Most of my friends don't think it is possible to boycott China but it IS possible...
simple, Biden will find mother fuk***s in china
Besides slant eyed people, he'll also find Kristi Noem, Tim Johnson and John Thune selling out Americans!!!
Most likely he will find you kwok zucking the Chinese.
Chinese zombie...
Return all the money which US lent from China. And then you can do whatever you want. But please remember, everything has two sides. Always try to resist the others will finally hurt yourselves. Look at the economy in US now. Be nice to China and the other countries.
Boycott China...
At least he is out of this country so he can't screw up too many things here.
Biden will only find what the CCP wants him to find. He'll also find a bunch of American businesses that got suckered
into investing in the nastiest, most corrupt society on earth. The CCP and the PLA run that plantation (and take the lion's
share of the profit from it). What Biden should discover is that all American businesses (and citizens) should get OUT of
China. China is a catastrophe just waiting to happen...
The US is a catastrophe that already happened and is attempt to drag the rest of the world down with it.
he will find all OUR MANUFACTURING JOBS!!! which if our country doesnt start producing MADE IN USA, even though things will cost more it will produce jobs which is what we need to get our economy going WE WILL NEVER RECOVER!!! beside the loss of electronic stores and repair shops [items are cheaper to replace then fix old one] the biggest loss weve had is manufacturing,causing the loss of millions of jobs,as you can drive through almost any town and find EMPTY USE TO BE MANUFACTURING BUILDING/BUILDINGS. the other big killer of jobs is TECHNOLOGY, as each year goes by they [companies] figure more ways to REPLACE PEOPLE with AUTOMATION,ROBOTICS,ROBOTS, which may cost at first BUT THEY SAVE by NOT PAYING BENEFITS,HEALTHCARE,TAXES[ less people less taxes less revenue to state&fed gov.] and then the HUGE OUTSOURCING, it seems every time i call a 1 800 its NOT an AMERICAN and NOT someone in the U.S.
Joe Biden will find a fake iPhone 5 in China?
Q: What will Biden find in China?
A: He'll find that he's a perfect fit for their communist nation. Revoke his American citizenship! Quick!
Q: What will Biden find in China?
A: 1.3 billion Chinese.
Biden will NOT find Waldo.
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