By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
Can you remember what explosive crisis America and the world was fixated on last summer? It wasn't the deficit, jobs or Europe. It was an oil disaster. Remember the BP spill? Tons of crude gushing into the Gulf of Mexico? Well, in the weeks and months that followed, there was a lot of discussion about how to make sure it didn't happen again.
But what struck me this week is that we have a new dangerous drilling zone right on our doorstep - Cuba. Estimates suggest that the island nation has reserves of anywhere from 5 billion to 20 billion barrels of oil. The high end of those estimates would put Cuba among the top dozen oil producers in the world.
Predictably, there's a global scramble for Havana. A Chinese-constructed drilling rig is owned by an Italian oil company and is on its way to Cuban waters. Spain's Repsol, Norway's Statoil and India's ONGC will use the 53,000 ton rig to explore for oil. Petro giants from Brazil, Venezuela, Malaysia and Vietnam are also swooping in.
Of course, we can't partake because we don't trade with Cuba. But what about at least making sure there are some safety procedures that are followed that would protect the American coastline? You see at 5,500 feet below sea level, these oil rigs off Cuba will go even deeper than the Deepwater Horizon rig that blew up on our coast last year, and the coast of Florida, remember, is just 60 miles away from Cuban waters.
What happens if there's another oil spill? Will it be easy and quick to clean up? No. You see, the nearest and best experts on safety procedures and dealing with oil spills are all American, but we are forbidden by our laws from being involved in any way with Cuba. Our trade embargo on Cuba not only prevents us from doing business with our neighbor but it also bars us from sending equipment and expertise to help even in a crisis. So, if there is an explosion, we will watch while the waters of the Gulf Coast get polluted. Now, this is obviously a worst case hypothetical, but it's precisely the kind of danger we should plan for and one we can easily protect against if we were allowed to have any dealings with Cuba.
This whole mess is an allegory for a larger problem. We imposed an embargo on Cuba at the height of the Cold War, 52 years ago, when we were worried about Soviet expansion and the spread of communism. Well, there is no more Soviet Union, and I don't think there's a person in the world who believes America could be infected by Cuban communism today. But the antique policies remain - antique and failed policies. They were designed, you recall, to force regime change in Cuba. Well, the Castros have thrived for five decades, using American hostility as a badge of Cuban nationalism. All the embargo has done is to weaken the Cuban people, keep them impoverished and cut them off from the world.
Cuba has an Internet penetration rate of just 14 percent. So only one out of seven people can use YouTube. Only one out of 20 Cubans has a mobile phone. And now we will stand silently and watch as other countries drill for oil, reap the benefits and endanger our coastline. But, hey, we're making sure that Cuban communism stays contained.
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I think Raul Castro is ready for a re-normalisation of the diplomatic relationship between the two countries. What stands in America's way to lift the embargo on Cuba?
Fidel stands in the way...duh!
Nope, Fidel Castro has never stood in the way of getting rid of the embargo. Its just policy that has stood in place by every American President because it satisfies Cuban-American voters in the Swing state of Florida.
the right will never go for it and will label anyone who does as a evil socialist...
Your statement is ironic considering that both parties support the embargo, not because it's the right thing to do but because the Cuban exhile community has political power beyond the size of it's population.
I believe the most feasible, and symbolic retaliatory response the United States can perform is closing the prisons in Guantanamo Bay Cuba, and return the territory operated by the United States, to Cuba, not to the Castros, but to the Cuban exiles. Transform Guantanamo Bay, Cuba into a Democratic Free Trade Zone. Nothing more would infuriate and terrify the Castro regime more than for them to witness a territory of free enterprise and democratic values prop up on communist soil. MAKE GUANTANAMO BAY A DEMOCRATIC FREE TRADE ZONE.
I say we bomb them, change their regime and then capitalize on their oil.
Typical comment from a typical Cuban American,Dumb.
Bomb them? What state of mind are you in? What is wrong with you?
Bombardearnos !!?? , donde naciste pedazo de fascista ??
I like the opinion of US CUBAN. It shows how mentally challenged is this person. The Castros are in power because of the stupid people like US CUBAN. Imagine people like this guy and his buddies in charge of the Cuban people. I must say that they still have a good deal with the revolution. The US is missing the boat in Cuba, the whole world is doing business with the Cuban and the US still talking about the embargo to satisfied Stefan and the others mafiosos. Pathetic. The Cuban oil will be produced by the Chinese. Shocker.
The embargo of Cuba should be lifted immediately, and probably should never been put in place to begin with as all it did was ensure that Cuba was pushed firmly under the wing of the USSR. Had we allowed open trade with Cuba this trade would have resulted in Cuba being far more open then it is today, and by today it likely wouldn't be communist at all (or at least so only in name.)
Ironically while we put an embargo in place on Cuba yet we continued to trade with the USSR and China (we even give China Most Favored Nation trade status.)
I couldnt agree more with you on that statement
I believe the most feasible, and symbolic retaliatory response the United States can perform is closing the prisons in Guantanamo Bay Cuba, and return the territory operated by the United States, to Cuba, not to the Castros, but to the Cuban exiles. Transform Guantanamo Bay, Cuba into a Democratic Free Trade Zone. Nothing would terrify the Castro brothers more than for them to witness a territory of free enterprise and democratic values prop up on communist soil. MAKE GUANTANAMO BAY A DEMOCRATIC FREE TRADE ZONE.
Cuba's not stupid. It's survived as long as it has because it preserves what it has. Lack of access to petroleum-based fertilizers led to better organic farming practices. You think Cuba wants an oil spill? It has more motivation to drill with better safety precautions than BP does. BP can avoid financial penalties, so it has little motivation to improve safety standards. Cuba has a nonexistent margin of error, so it will have to do things right.
Your commentary is thoughtful. Thanks. A few additional points to consider:
Washington's desperate desire to isolate Cuba and block the island's economic development is the highest priority element in US foreign policy toward the island. Obama has simply continued what every other US president before him has done, including sending US agents, funds and technology there to promote destabilization.
Just as Washington learned to co-exist with China and Vietnam after decades-long efforts to contain them and thus to prevent their independent development, it's time and overtime for Washington to accept that the Cuban Revolution's principal goal was and remains enhancing the island's independence and sovereignty, above all else.
Walter Lippmann
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CubaNews/
Yeah, it's ironic that we now trade with Vietnam but not with Cuba.
Yes, this is a subject to be thought out seriously. Tthis could have serious implication for Coastal areas of US.
Fareed, you shocked me. Your G.E. C.E.O. Sunday interview got a free ride. "We are in China because thats where our customers are" and "Our U.S. labor cost is only 8%. And he is advising our president ?
This is one of the best honest and unbiased written articles about Cuba in a very long time. What keeps the embargo going after almost six decades are the hard liners Cuban exiles in Florida, and the hard liners Cuban Americans politicians in Florida and New Jersey that keep lobbying in the U.S. Senate and Congress to maintain the embargo. The American Government has to stop being held hostage and listening to the personal grudge and hatred of the Cuban politicians and Cuban exiles in Florida and do what is right for America and what 90% of all Americans want for the past decades and that is "To End The Embargo In Cuba"
Mario I agree with you and this is just another example of lobbyists and their negative affects. The one issue I haven't seen discussed here is specifically why are these "exiled Cubans" upset and what can we do to change there option. So often we like to criticize or place blame using what I call "news rating soundbytes." (my recent favor is "GE Paid No Tax" so let's all get made at GE? That's ridiculous GE isn't the problem, as long as they didn't break any laws, its the system. We shouldn't be focusing or trying to get GE, 1 company to pay more taxes we need to focus and fix the system so all companies pay taxes!) So back to Cuba, and after we, the American people, criticize we rush back to thinking about ourselves! (i.e.; ignore the Cuban exiles and talk about what "I" want!) I believe some of the Cuban exiles have good reason to be upset. Not only was their money, land, property, businesses, etc taken from them and this is what I believe to be the under lying issue driving these exiled Cubans, they have family & friends who are still being held as political prisoners in Cuba, no?
Although the appropriateness of economic sanctions on Cuba is a worthy subject for analysis, this commentary on Cuba lacks grounding in critical facts:
1. Foreign Investors in Cuba have to and operate in one of the world's riskiest investment environments and must partner with its dictatorial government, which demands a majority stake in all joint ventures. Many foreign companies have already paid dearly for their gamble. To cite just one example, in 2009 the Cuban government abruptly cancelled its oil production contract (to 2018) with the Canadian company Pebercan, ending a 15-year partnership, after Pebercan continued to press the Cuban state's to pay its mounting debt, which had reached $108 million.
2. Cuba is a totalitarian Communist state governed by the Castro dynasty. Despite the end of the Cold war, Cuba continues to actively work -and in concert with the likes of Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela- against U.S. interests in the world in all sorts of ways. For no small reasons, Cuba remains on the State Department's list of designated state sponsors of terrorism.
3. Cuba is a police state with stalinist laws whose government represses its own people and is responsible for many crimes against humanity.
4. Internet access in Cuba is strictly controlled and limited by the state, not by the U.S. embargo. You Tube and the likes are simply not allowed. In fact, the Cuban government has sentenced USAID contractor Alan Gross to 15 years of prison for "the serious crime" of attempting to distribute satellite equipment for Cubans to connect to the internet.
Balancing business interests with our values of freedom, democracy, and human rights is a foreign policy challenge that is not unique to Cuba. Mr. Zakaria's seeming forgetfulness of the terrible human rights' situation in Cuba is particularly puzzling given the attention he has devoted to the oppressed people rising up since the Arab Spring. The shots of Cubans dancing happily as he made a plaintive cry in favor of business with the Cuban dictatorship are particularly offensive when brutal repression of peaceful dissidents is a growing and visible occurrence in streets all over Cuba (one that is, sadly, systematically absent from CNN coverage).
I that GPS will soon provide a more balanced perspective.
Maria you are just another Cuban exile here in America trying to impose your hard liner cold war mentality, Your Cubans leave Cuba supposedly getting away from a dictatorship, but you get to America and get into prominent positions your Cubans try dictate on non Cubans and the Americans citizens you your hardliner hatred mentality.
its ironic that even today when soviet union has collapsed, Cuba still faces the embargo which is off course supported by both states the only way to deal this problem is negotiation between two states.there is a lot of mistrust and bitterness in there relationship which-is needed to be addressed ..on the other hand suppression of political freedom and freedom of expression can have worse effect in the near future.
Miami exiles have a lot of influence and are staunch believers in illiberal democracy. You should contact Diaz Balart bros and Laethinen and see if they could help Fareed. c
the embargo should be lifted because of humaniterian aid they should be allowed to receive goods and services from other countries like the u.s.
I recall, 50 years ago, Norway was, albeit scandinavian, a poor country. Then came the North Sea oil discovery in which they now, figuratiively swim. The Miami Cubans tried to prevent this project, and failed. The consortium which includes, not only China and Italy, but Russia, Brazil and Malaysia, etc. They are serious, and unlike BP (for whom, it was just another venture, which was insured) want the project to succeed. As is so typical, Fareed emphasizes the negative, a possible catastrophe. The real catastrophe (it's always about money) is that, at a minimum, Cuba will become energy independent, and, the consortium believes, a net exporter. throwing the blockade into the dustbin of history.
Oppression? I'm not so impressed with my own government's policies, both at home and abroad. I consider the many "inner cities" I see, as being oppressed. Not to speak of the conditions in our client Haiti, where access to drinkable water remains a problem. Nor, do I look with favor upon our tendency to bring "freedom and democracy" to "needy nations" at the point of a gun. In addition, I have yet to see published or reported in our media,reports from the thousands of Americans who visit Havana yearly, the existence of chain link fences surrounding schools, "gangs," drive by shootings, groups of homeless people gathered on and about the sidewalks, begging for handouts, barriers surrounding government buildings to prevent attacks and bombings, not to speak of searches to enter, etc. In addition, Cuba sends thousands of doctors, scientists, teachers, entertainers artists, athletes abroad, to assist other poor nations and visit Western ones. 99% return. Life in Cuba, is no doubt a struggle. However, the government is supported by the overwhelming majority of the citizens. No reliable person, denies that.
Its nice to see such varied opinions on this topic.
There is another argument in favor of dropping the embargo that has been ignored. The embargo with Cuba has not only severed our relations with Cuba, but this lingering relic of the Cold War has seriously hampered U.S. relations with Latin America as a whole. Despite a concerted effort by Washington to exclude Cuba from the OAS, Castro's Cuba was still readmitted-without conditions- into the OAS in 2009. As a result of our hard-headed approach towards Cuba, our constant uncooperative behavior with the OAS and the rise of certain economies in region (Brazil, Argentina, etc), the U.S. is becoming less and less respected by Latin America as a whole. This general sentiment has resulted in the exclusion of the U.S. in certain regional affairs, which is best exemplified by the U.S.'s exclusion in the regional organization Community of Latin American and Carribean States (CELAC).
The same oil Cuba has access to is the same oil we in the USA could extract since its on the same sea floor. But thanks to our environmental concerns Cuba will exploit this oil. USA with better technology cannot exploit this resource while a third rate island will exploit all of it and likely pollute our beaches. Wow what a tradeoff!
Enabler – You seem to forget that the oil companies investing in Cuba are from Canada, Europe and Asia.. The Deepwater Horizon was not built, nor designed in the US. Cuba's governing body will generally hold investors to a high standard as any accident would be perceived a failure of it's government. The risk of course is not so much in the standards of operating, but rather, SHOULD there be an accident, the transparency of information regarding such accident would naturally be downplayed by their controlled state owned media. Cuba does need money and investment, but they won't sacrifice their (self) perceived image of success. They still have a strong tourist industry that doesn't need any black eyes.
The Cuban missile crisis and subsequent embargo (ad infinitum) was (still is) very unfortunate, but was caused by a political error on Cuba's part not to at least stay impartial with respect to nuclear weapons. It could be argued that despite the decades of political oppression, Cuba appears to have at least preserved itself where it may have even developed into a completely different state had it decided otherwise. Who knows. In any case, Cuba has maintained to stay Cuba throughout and that alone is deserving of respect.
The design, construction, operation, on going safety, and emergency contingency planning for off shore drilling rigs is entirely dependent on human ingenuity. So it may not matter so much as to where the rig is rather than who designed, built, and is running the the show. A disaster can almost occur anywhere, but usually has better chances with increased human error and negligence. And the BP disaster in the Gulf appears to be a real good example of exactly that. And hats off to Fareed for reminding everyone that this could happen again...... anywhere!
As for Cuba, the whole world saw the resulting disaster in the Gulf, and given the proximity of Cuban and American coastlines to the new drilling projects, wouldn't it be a great gesture on the part of the USA to only offer assistance and expertise with respect to avoiding and responding to any potential disaster, rather than get involved any way otherwise. This would maintain the on going political consistency between the two countries, but also perhaps bring about a notion on both sides that mutual interests do exist and should always be given adequate consideration from both sides, regardless of any other conditions. But don't be entirely surprised if Cuba says "Thanks, but no thanks"
As a Canadian and one who has spent considerable time in Cuba, have Cuban friends, etc., I can say that Cuba's economy stands to lose much more than the US does in the event of an oil disaster. The companies Cuba has subcontracted to drill for oil have better accident records than BP. The Gulf oil spill could have done serious damage to Cuba's tourist industry since Varadero is directly south. @Mario, you wouldn't know unbiased if it gave you a big kiss in the you know. For the most part, Americans should keep their mouths shut when it comes to Cuba as most of you have no clue about Cuba in this day and age. BTA, it isn't just American goods that can't go to Cuba; a Cuban cannot purchase a washing machine made in Mexico because there'a a part of two made by an American company. Get over yourselves.
friends with Cubans eh.........Arteest, we live in a world that has wells, and those wells have to run by men with guts! Who's gonna do it? You? You Secretary Raul? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Fidel Castro, and you curse our embargo. You have that luxury. You have the luxury not knowing what I know. That our embargo, while tragic, probably saves jobs. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves jobs. You don't want the truth because deep in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me at that well, you need me at that well! We use words like Cold War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Axis of Evil. We use these words as a the backbone of a life spent to defend something. You think it's just propaganda. I have neither the time, nor the inclination to explain myself to someone who drives their car and heats their home through energy sources from the very fuel that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it! I would rather you just said " thank you " and went on your way, otherwise I suggest you pick up a wrench and get to port. Either way, I don' give a damn who you might be friends with!
Col. Natgas N. Fillerup
(sorry Arteest, I just had to do this for kicks, hope you get a chuckle out of it)
now that what funny....
I hope, that after 52 years of inhumane embargo imposed on Cuba you will never have a chance to get back into Cuba with your Multinational MAFIAS that prevailed during your days of Wine & Roses with the Batista dictatorship. I my serious doubt that your devalued $ will change the 52 year old Socialist culture that today exists on that island. Your embargo has left more than half-a-century old Scar on Cuba's population born in the '50's-'60's. I which Cuba success without you and/or Castro.
America is losing out in every way because of its nasty foreign policy. They deserve to sit and watch China et al drill baby drill!
Chinese are drilling 60 miles away in Cuba...Floridian should sleep well...sorry there won;t be any court or escrow account to compensate if any goes wrong....
America need not worry. According to history, the potential of an unacceptable threat to the US (ie. Missiles, terrorism, etc,) which cannot be resolved by political means will often resort to a military solution. Alluding to my previous sarcasm (Col. Nathan Jessup/A Few Good Men), the US needs only find a way to declare the offshore project a threat to national security (ie. Spill could clog up and shut down the Virginia naval base, or whatever) and then the problem could be handed over to the military where all political bets would be off. The real question is whether or not the US Gov would actually ever consider deploying such a tactic against a small oil producing nation controlled by a stubborn military regime that for the past 50+ years has openly defied the US and everything it stood for....?? Naw, what am I thinking!?!? That could never happen.
The best way to solve this situation is to conquer Cuba and make Cuba the 51st state of the Union. Then, we can arrest Castro for treason and Exxon Mobil can exploit the oil in Cuba. Problem solved.
There can be no negotiation with the Castro brothers as it has to be" there way or the Highway" Cuba has been a disaster for 52 years. BP was responsible for the disaster in the Gulf so the owner of the platform and the oil company should be responsible for any disasters that may occur.
I can't wait for this book "Habana Libre" to come out.
I love the work that Michael does and the creative side to Havana that no one has herd about until now.
http://habanalibrebook.com/
Fareed, agree with your overall views, but some "additions" to your article:
1- US officials and industry experts (William Reilly, Daniel Whittle, Lee Hunt) have already visited Cuba to discuss the oil exploration safety issue with Cuban government (http://www.cubaheadlines.com/es/2011/09/08/33582/expertos_instan_a_washington_y_la_habana_a_cooperar_para_evitar_un_derrame_en_el);
2- Brazilian Petrobras left Cuba and is no longer searching for oil there (reasons unknown to the public)
3- Internet penetration of 14% is not real, not sure where you got that number, but at most that's the number of employees with access to Cuban government "intranet". Actual internet access is confined to very few educational and touristic places, and still filtered on content, I doubt even 1% of population knows what You Tube is, much more accessed it
I agree with Fareed. It's time to end the Cuban blockade and the political bullying of the Cuban exiles. Mr. Obama, "tear down this wall1"
No one here know the real true about the embargo. It is Mr. Fidel Castro who has benefit the most with this policy.. and the real true is that it is He who don't really want to finish the embargo because he knows right from the beginning that his days will be counted. The prove is that under Clinton administratio, our former president was extremelly close to end the embargo, as a matter of fact, goth goverment were talking on how to just normalize their relation and Castro knew tthe embargo was about to finish. Well guess what he did.. we all know but we are so ignorant that we don't want to see it. He ordered one of his infiltrated people in his country to create a caous and then the so call "Hermanos al Rescate" went to Cuba then he shot down one of the airplane and the whole thing change again to where it was before Clinton. IT IS CASTRO WHO WANT THE EMBARGO BECAUSE IT IS HIS ONLY WEAPON TO BE IN POWER FOR SO LONG...
If i were Cuba i would be very carefull of Americas motives judging by their past history If what they sayis true about their oil reserves is true that might be the excuse for US to invade Cuba once more in order to free the Cban people Where bave we heard that before?
You omit to mention the biggest problem. The sanctions , Fidel and all the rest was put in place by the US. Our government wants Cuba to be kept Communist -it took me a long time to figure it out. I know Communism all too well, i lived under Communist yoke and know what it takes , particularly so near the US, to get rid of the system. We go and change a government in Lybia fast and in Cuba we do EVERYTHING to preserve Castro in power. We put sanctions, for over 30 years, we try to invade so that Castro can justify stronger grip on the people, we prohibit travel and exchange of goods, we make Castro guard our oil interests in Africa -al that while the Cubans are kept in chains. No matter whether a Democrat president or a Republican one- the policy is the same – keep the Cubans isolated, in chains. Why NO ONE talks about this ?
rightospeak – The sanctions were put in place in hopes there would be an eventual failure of the system and that the people would rebel, however the US is the only nation with an embargo. China, which is stronger economically, enjoys trade with Cuba.. When I was there last year, the tour buses were all modern China built.. Tourists from Canada an Europe are everywhere.. The embargo is meant to topple communism, but it is not working..
I missed your point.
Then in this oil-ecological blackmail that the Cuban regime has placed the U.S. authorities, the solution to protect the southern territory of the United States is the unilateral lifting of trade restrictions between the two countries, which is precisely the strategic objective of Castro and all the pro-Cuba lobbyists.
Because you have to put it bluntly, the site of the oil rig Scarabeo 9 is the new strategic weapon of Neo-Castroism to blackmail the United States and as such should be considered by the Administation of President Obama and U.S. lawmakers.
GPS is one of the best news shows out there. We watch it each and every week; by taking full episodes offline and keeping only the 10 minute segments CNN is showing the world how little they know about getting viewership up. Eventually, there will be only the Fox News Channel, no wonder CNN's ratings keep declining, they keep turning their viewers away by not offering the content people want to see.
I was looking eevhrywere and this popped up like nothing!
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