Editor's Note: Micah Zenko is a fellow for conflict prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he blogs. You can also follow him on Twitter.
By Micah Zenko
In late June, six astronauts living on board the International Space Station (ISS), which orbits some 200 miles above the earth’s surface, received notice that a piece of space debris travelling 29,000 miles per hour would pass dangerously nearby. NASA officials calculated that the probability of the ISS being hit at around one in 360. (One in 10,000 is NASA’s nominal threshold for which it will authorize a “collision avoidance maneuver.”)
Normally, the ISS receives ample notice so that it can maneuver out of the pathway of potential space debris. However, with less than fifteen hours’ warning, the astronauts were forced to relocate to Soyuz space capsules for only the second time in the ISS’s thirteen-year history.
While the debris missed the space station by 1,100 feet, orbital space debris is a growing threat to civil, military, and commercial satellites in space.
Presently, there are some 22,000 items over ten centimeters across, or roughly the size of a softball, which can be regularly tracked with existing resources and technology. These include the upper stages of launch vehicles, disabled spacecraft, dead batteries, solid rocket motor waste, and refuse from human missions. In addition, there are approximately 300,000 other fragments of space junk measuring between one and ten centimeters, and over 135,000,000 less than one centimeter, which could potentially damage operational spacecraft.
Read: Excessive secrecy in national security.
Though it took forty years to produce the first 10,000 pieces of softball-sized space debris, it required less than a decade for the next 12,000. This recent increase was due in part to two worrying incidents, which, according to NASA, combined to increase the number of total space objects by over 60 percent. In January 2007, the Chinese military destroyed a defunct polar-orbiting weather satellite with a mobile ballistic missile, and in February 2009 an active Iridium communication satellite and a defunct Russian satellite, which had been predicted to pass each other 1,900 feet apart, unexpectedly collided.
The ability to detect, track, characterize, and predict objects in space and space-related events is known as space situational awareness (SSA). The U.S. Strategic Command’s Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) provides this function for the Pentagon by monitoring space debris (over ten centimeters) with a worldwide network of twenty-nine ground-based radars and optical sensors.
In addition to supporting U.S. military and intelligence agencies, JSpOC provides e-mail notifications to commercial space operators when their satellites are at risk from space debris. JSpOC provides twenty to thirty close-approach notifications per day, which last year resulted in satellite owners maneuvering 126 times to avoid collision with other satellites or debris. According to U.S. officials, the United States even notifies the Chinese government when their satellites are threatened by space debris created by the 2007 anti-satellite test. Despite JSpOC’s best efforts, however, these same officials acknowledge that no country has the resources, technical expertise, or geography to meet the growing demands for SSA.
Read: The consequences of stalemate in Libya.
The space debris problem is a classic global governance dilemma: though eleven states can launch satellites, and over sixty countries or government consortia own or operate the approximately 1,100 active satellites, no one country or group of countries has the sovereign authority or responsibility for regulating space. Under Article II of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty: “Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty.”
The solution to reducing the amount of new space debris, mitigating the threat it poses to satellites and spacecraft, and eventually removing on-orbit debris from space, will require enhanced international cooperation. Last summer, the Obama administration released its National Space Policy, which featured the objective of preserving the space environment via “the continued development and adoption of international and industry standards and policies to minimize debris,” and “fostering the development of space collision warning measures.” Unfortunately, progress toward constructing international agreed upon rules of the road for the responsible uses of space have been slow going.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Micah Zenko. Read more at his blog, Power, Politics and Preventive Action.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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IT IS OUR MANIFEST DESTINY TO TRASH NOT JUST THE PLANET EARTH, BUT THE ENTIRE UNIVERSE!!!
Why not ? When that rubbish bin is of infinite size.
Great article with excellent idea! I appreciate your post. Thanks so much and let keep on sharing your stuffs shares my favorite sites.
Question about 29,000 mph: is that relative speed between ISS and the piece of space junk, or relative ground speed?
If the item is in a stable orbit, then that is its speed relative to the earth. If the speed is higher, then it is further from earth, if it is slower, then it is closer and if it is slow enough, then it is a decaying orbit. (all simplified with the assumption of simple orbits)
Depending on the orbital orientation of two different items in space, they could collide with little difference in speed, or they could have a head-on collision at the combined speed of each relative to earth. (think about two satellites in polar orbit, but going in opposite directions.
It's actually Bugatti Veyron speed.
Nice answer that concludes nothing...
Who do you expect is going to answer you?
It's groundspeed. The fact most space junk comes in the form of a hailstorm (since it's disintegrated from larger pieces originally travelling in the same general direction) than we're talking really fatal destruction here.
Thousnds of people at NASA and contractors are losing their jobs because the shuttle is shutting down. Maybe they can figure out how to clean the mess up.
At the same time we could also be learning how to divert an asteroid that is approaching earth – very, very improbable, but very, very devastating!
Totally agree!!!
While taking a human interest photo of a sunrise last week I accidentally captured an object which is not a meteorite in what appears to me to be a re-entry path and about to hit Lake Michigan. It seems to be a one in ten million photo but I can't stimulate much interest from NASA or otherwise. Do they keep this sort of thing under their hats?
There are a lot of different things your picture could be other than a reentering satellite. As you note, the odds are way far against it. Anything that is too good to be true, isn't.
If we can go to the Moon and come back safely, then why can't we bring the debris back? The country who owns the satellite must held responsible for bringing it back when necessary.
We should collect these debris and send them away from the earth. Why send them towards the earth???
Sending them away from earth would require a lot of rocket fuel, just like launching them in the first place. It would also require a big rocket engine to be strapped on somehow. VERY hard and expensive and dangerous. Sending them to earth is like pushing a rock downhill, just a nudge and it starts rolling on its own. Then it burns up in the atmosphere, no harm done. It is a lot simpler, much less expensive and less dangerous.
The Chinese wanted to demonstrate that they can shoot a satellite. They also demonstrated they can make completely retarded decisions.
There could have been further missions for the shuttle to collect no longer functioning equipment, but that wouldn't have brought in any revenue, now, would it? Aw, well, retire it anyway and we'll create a space vehicle without a robotic arm that is utilized for non reusable purposes. Back to the 60's technology??!! There's one giant step for mankind...
There are pros and cons to the shuttle vs the heavy lifter. The shuttle has two problems – first it is for low earth orbit, it will never take us to even the Moon, let alone Mars. Second, the launch design has it sitting on the SIDE of a huge fuel tank, where (as we have seen, unfortunately) it is subject to being hit by debris from the launch vehicle.
With the "heavy lifter" we can launch into deep space, not just low earth, and the capsule is completely in front of the launch vehicle so it isn't going to get whacked by stuff falling off.
Great article but fyi headline on front page says 'spcae'
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What if they sent a large satellite into orbit that was outfitted with a large magnet, while it is floating around in orbit all the metal space junk would stick to it. Sure, you would have another satellite in orbit, but having one large object would have to be better than having hundreds or thousands of smaller objects.
Sounds like they need a space tow truck haling the junk to the junk yard.
what an impressive idea
Thank you a lot for releasing such an interesting article.
All this article says is truth...
A spaceship disinitegration is something very hazardous.Therefore,the whole space industry has to elaborate increasingly safer shuttles.
The only wrong thing with the research over the secrets of the space is that the most powerful countries don't collaborate to hold one presentable position for an exploration.I believe that combining resources will bring something outstanding to our knowledge of astronomy and many other types of sciences which are also controlled by the richest countries.If somebody didn't understand which countries I was talking about,they were russia and usa.Those countries hold down all the potential success resources and don't enable an equal opportunity for the remaining countries that are also lust for abiding development on every field.I am going back on the message from my whole response : cooperation between countries will lead tehnologcially the world much further.
Thanks Micah, great article. I wondered if you knew whether the odds of 1300 for being hit were inclusive of people at sea or in the air at any one time? Also, if the odds of being hit included whales and other large sea creatures, or haven't they been taken into account? Also, nuclear vessels and oil rigs, would this pose a problem to safety?!
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Why they just don't fit a small solid fuel rocket to each spacecraft so it's possible to make a controlled reentry in case of fuel depletion, like this one? To let the satellites fall for itself is a dangerous game. What if a big chunk lands on Washington, DC?
Fear mongering propaganda!
http://www.livestream.com/globalrevolution/video?clipId=pla_5f4dc69e-2bbe-41af-887a-0b33902ec940
http://www.livestream.com/globalrevolution
long live the people
CNN should stop posting articles about anything not related to OccupyWallStreet don't know what i'm talking about? of course you don't all the major news organizations are NOT reporting about the major protests going on in NYC. MEDIA BLACKOUT, search twitter now, search OccupyWallStreet to get the real news about whats going on. SHAME ON YOU CNN FOR NOT REPORTING MAJOR NEWS!
To be honest, not my biggest concern.
"Space Debris" is just another term for the loose material cluttering around inside a Republican's head.
No, "space junk" is the BS that they say...not the crap in their tiny little brains.
Someone other than Perry wins the Florida straw poll and CNN completely ignores it. What a surprise.
Here is what CNN is NOT telling you that is happening NOW in NYC.
livestream dot com slash globalrevolution
What is 'potential debris'? Is that anything like Schrodingers Cat?
YOU POSTED IT UP YOU NEED TO EXCPECT IT DOWN ONE DAY
THIS IS ALARMING, NASA SHOULD START REMOVING THOSE TRASH, BEFORE IT TURN INTO WORST.
http://www.clarin.com/ciudades/vivienda-exploto-Esteban-Echeverria_0_561543993.html space debris hits Argentina last saturday ,under investigation
I dont give a crap about any of this, all i wanna NASA is to open up about ROSEWELL incident and other secrets they've been hiding about moon missions.
Space Waste Transporter: Going Where No Garbage Man has Gone Before
OCTOBER 21, 2011
With the growing number of incidents of falling space debris in the news, there is a pressing need to find an alternative solution. John D. Arwood, a Native American and owner of Arwood Waste (www.arwoodwaste.com 1-800-477-0854), proposes a possible solution to our space waste problem. Arwood Waste has proposed a Space Waste Contract to Together Waste (www.togetherwaste.com) for the collection and disposal of space junk. This innovative concept outlines an orbital junk removal program that Arwood is calling, the Space Waste Transporter.
The Space Waste Transporter is essentially a rocket-propelled garbage truck designed to launch into orbit and immediately go to work cleaning up the ever-growing cloud of decommissioned satellites, shuttle debris, garbage and fragments.
NASA’s recently decommissioned Space Shuttles, with their large cargo bays and proven track record, would be ideal vehicles to accomplish this pressing task. They’d become a type of “space waste collection vehicle.” After the Transporter collects debris, it will return it safely back to earth where its cargo can be properly disposed of or recycled.
Although most of the falling trash is burned up upon reentry, often charred remains of the junk too large to burn are sent spraying down to the ground, endangering areas as large as a 500-mile region. As more and more satellites expire, experts say it is only a matter of time before these unpredictable and out of control chunks of trash will fall on populated areas and cause serious damage. Additionally, scientists do not know the long-term effect of re-entering space debris to our atmosphere. “Could these man-made machines, continually burning through our stratosphere, slowly change the climate of our skies?” Arwood raises the concern.
The need to safely clean up our littered atmosphere is now greater than ever. As with the energy crisis and global climate change, leaving the issue of falling space junk unaddressed will only compound the problem for future generations.
This reality brings John D. Arwood to explore new and creative solutions. As an entrepreneur, Arwood got his start collecting and recycling used metal from factories. He now is the president of Arwood Waste and has been recycling debris since 1984. “Collecting waste in outer space should be the next step for this industry,” says Arwood.
Reusing the space shuttles, and dubbing them “Space Waste Transporters,” is a real and creative option to solving this problem. The technology is already built, already tested and already available. He has opened the discussion for a Space Waste Transporter program to collect decommissioned satellites and bring them safely back to earth where they can be reused, recycled, or preserved.
“This space junk is just another example of misguided disposal of trash. We sent it up there. We need to bring it down,” said Arwood. He is taking the old adage, ‘what goes up must come down’ in a very real sense. “Recycling has always been my passion. Let’s work together to clear up our skies.”
With the growing number of incidents of falling space debris in the news, there is a pressing need to find an alternative solution. John D. Arwood, a Native American and owner of Arwood Waste (www.arwoodwaste.com 1-800-477-0854), proposes a possible solution to our space waste problem. Arwood Waste has proposed a Space Waste Contract to Together Waste (www.togetherwaste.com) for the collection and disposal of space junk. This innovative concept outlines an orbital junk removal program that Arwood is calling, the Space Waste Transporter.
The Space Waste Transporter is essentially a rocket-propelled garbage truck designed to launch into orbit and immediately go to work cleaning up the ever-growing cloud of decommissioned satellites, shuttle debris, garbage and fragments.
NASA’s recently decommissioned Space Shuttles, with their large cargo bays and proven track record, would be ideal vehicles to accomplish this pressing task. They’d become a type of “space waste collection vehicle.” After the Transporter collects debris, it will return it safely back to earth where its cargo can be properly disposed of or recycled.
Although most of the falling trash is burned up upon reentry, often charred remains of the junk too large to burn are sent spraying down to the ground, endangering areas as large as a 500-mile region. As more and more satellites expire, experts say it is only a matter of time before these unpredictable and out of control chunks of trash will fall on populated areas and cause serious damage. Additionally, scientists do not know the long-term effect of re-entering space debris to our atmosphere. “Could these man-made machines, continually burning through our stratosphere, slowly change the climate of our skies?” Arwood raises the concern.
The need to safely clean up our littered atmosphere is now greater than ever. As with the energy crisis and global climate change, leaving the issue of falling space junk unaddressed will only compound the problem for future generations.
This reality brings John D. Arwood to explore new and creative solutions. As an entrepreneur, Arwood got his start collecting and recycling used metal from factories. He now is the president of Arwood Waste and has been recycling debris since 1984. “Collecting waste in outer space should be the next step for this industry,” says Arwood.
Reusing the space shuttles, and dubbing them “Space Waste Transporters,” is a real and creative option to solving this problem. The technology is already built, already tested and already available. He has opened the discussion for a Space Waste Transporter program to collect decommissioned satellites and bring them safely back to earth where they can be reused, recycled, or preserved.
“This space junk is just another example of misguided disposal of trash. We sent it up there. We need to bring it down,” said Arwood. He is taking the old adage, ‘what goes up must come down’ in a very real sense. “Recycling has always been my passion. Let’s work together to clear up our skies.”
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