Editor's Note: Martin Ford is the author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology, and the Economy of the Future. For more, visit Project Syndicate or follow it on Facebook and Twitter.
By Martin Ford, Project Syndicate
Nearly all economic forecasts agree that high unemployment in much of the developed world will most likely persist for years to come. But could even this dire projection underestimate future unemployment rates?
As improvements in computers, robotic technologies, and other forms of job automation continue to accelerate, more workers are certain to be displaced, and job creation will become even more challenging. Most economists dismiss concern that this might lead to long-term structural unemployment. Indeed, the idea often elicits outright derision. The conservative media in the United States recently mocked President Barack Obama for suggesting that automation might hurt employment growth. But Obama was right to raise the question.
A very large percentage of jobs are, on some level, essentially routine and repetitive. It seems likely that, as computer hardware and software continue to improve, many of these job types will become susceptible to automation, particularly to machine learning.
This is not far-fetched science-fiction technology, but rather a simple extrapolation of the expert systems and specialized algorithms that currently land jet airplanes, trade autonomously on Wall Street, or beat nearly any human being at chess. IBM’s Watson – the computer that prevailed on the television game show Jeopardy! – suggests that machine-learning algorithms could soon be able to take on a number of cognitive tasks.
Read: The Philippines joins the Asian race.
As this technology improves, the systems that it enables will begin to match or exceed the capability of human workers in many routine job categories – a group that includes many workers with college degrees or other significant training. Many service-sector workers also will be threatened by the continuing trend toward technologies that turn their jobs over to consumers.
One of the most extreme historical examples of technology-induced job loss is, of course, found in agriculture in developed countries. In the late 1800’s, roughly three-quarters of all workers in the US were employed in agriculture. Today, the number is around 2-3%. Advancing mechanization eliminated millions of jobs.
Clearly, when developed countries’ agricultural sectors shed workers, long-term structural unemployment did not result. Workers were eventually absorbed by other sectors, particularly with the growth of industrial manufacturing, and average wages and overall prosperity increased dramatically – an excellent illustration of the so-called “Luddite fallacy.” This is the idea – generally accepted by economists – that technological progress will never lead to significant rates of long-term unemployment.
The reasoning is roughly as follows: as labor-saving technologies improve, some workers lose their jobs in the short run, but production becomes more efficient. That leads to lower prices for the goods and services produced, which in turn leaves consumers with more money to spend on other things, boosting demand – and employment – across nearly all industries.
Read: Down with the eurozone.
The problem today is that we are not talking about rapid automation of a single economic sector like agriculture. When agriculture became mechanized, there were other labor-intensive sectors that could absorb millions of workers. There is little evidence to suggest a similar outcome this time around.
As more workers are automated out of more employment sectors, there must come a “tipping point,” beyond which the overall economy simply is not sufficiently labor-intensive to continue absorbing workers who lose their jobs due to automation (or globalization). Beyond this point, businesses will be able to ramp up production primarily by employing machines and software. Structural unemployment will become inevitable.
But, if automation is relentless, the basic mechanism for putting purchasing power into the hands of consumers will break down. Imagine a fully automated economy. Virtually no one would have a job (or an income); machines would do everything. Long before we reached that point, mass-market business models would become unsustainable. Where would consumption come from? And, if it is still a market (rather than a planned) economy, why would production continue if there were no viable consumers to purchase the output?
In developed countries, the most disruptive impact to the job market would come from substantial automation of the service sector, which now employs the majority of workers. In developing countries, the impact will be greatest in manufacturing, and factories there already are rapidly putting in place labor-saving technology. For example, Taiwan-based Foxconn, a major electronics producer and employer in China, recently announced plans to introduce huge numbers of sophisticated manufacturing robots.
Read: Should we ban cigarettes?
Unemployment resulting from automation in the Chinese manufacturing sector could ultimately complicate China’s efforts to rebalance its economy toward increased domestic consumption – an objective that most economists agree is critical for the country’s long-term prosperity. If consumers see only an economy in which jobs are relentlessly automated away, and if it appears that additional education or training provides little protection, they will adjust their discretionary spending accordingly. And, given their concerns about long-term income continuity, traditional policies like stimulus spending or tax cuts would be ineffective.
So, are we approaching the “tipping point” where automation fuels structural unemployment?
Most economists object that the very assumption that such a point exists is speculative. But when one considers today’s advanced-country malaise – years of stagnating or declining wages for average workers, growing income inequality, increasing productivity, and consumption supported by debt rather than income – there certainly seems to be ample reason to speculate. Let us hope that a rigorous analysis of historical economic data does not arrive after the tipping point has been reached.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Martin Ford. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2011.
The reasons why our economy is such a mess today are many. Technology and globalisation are just a few. Shortsightedness of policy makers is the root of all evils.
Automation as a manufacturing process is seen as a solution to high labour-costs in developed economies. What did politicians do with those made redundant? instead of retraining them and helping them acquire other skills, they put these people on the dole, to keep them happy and win their votes. This is jobless economy!
There are many countries in Europe where it is indeed the case that going to college middle aged for no reason but a whim is totally paid for by the government. This unfortunately clearly does not fix the problem as they are all facing economic turmoil and unemployment right now.
I wish that were such an easy fix. :(
In 1997, World Champion Kasparov was defeated by the chess program "Deeper Blue" on their 6th match. However, Deeper Blue was upgraded by humans between each match. This human computer hybrid computing historically has been the true driver for innovation and increases in automation. In the 1990's, the economy boomed because of increases in human efficiency due to computing automation. Humans will continue to have jobs in technological and service industries. Computers will just make humans be able to do more.
Kasparov said about the future of computing, "we [people] could concentrate on strategic planning instead of spending so much time on calculations. Human creativity was even more paramount under these conditions."
The only jobs Obama has created, if at all, have been in the public sector. But the lion's share of his so-called "stimulus" propped up the failed public sector pension systems - the next big bubble. Shovel ready jobs? The only think shovel ready was manure.
And the Democrats sure know how to shovel that commodity.
The problem with you is you are short sighted. Both the Democrats and Republicans cannot fix this problem....Jobs are created by business people and consumer demand not governments. The real problem with job creation in the US isn't automation it's globalization. The US standard of living will continue to fall as the standard of living of developing countries continues to rise
IBM used to say, "Machines should work. People should think." Yet lots of economists seem to want it the other way around.
When will we finally come to the realization that there is just not enough work to go around to keep everyone employed full time? Let's start the job sharing programs, successfully practiced in Germany, here in the U.S. Better the government subsidize workers' part-time wages, than handing out endless unemployment and welfare checks. Better for the morale of our nation's idle, also.
since many people are unemployed , and if you need fast cash try selling your gold and silver jewelry to these local gold buyers. http://ny-gold-buyers.com/
I relish, cause I found just what I was looking for. You've ended my 4 day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye
The Global Public Square is where you can make sense of the world every day with insights and explanations from CNN's Fareed Zakaria, leading journalists at CNN, and other international thinkers. Join GPS editor Jason Miks and get informed about global issues, exposed to unique stories, and engaged with diverse and original perspectives.
Every week we bring you in-depth interviews with world leaders, newsmakers and analysts who break down the world's toughest problems.
CNN U.S.: Sundays 10 a.m. & 1 p.m ET | CNN International: Find local times
Buy the GPS mug | Books| Transcripts | Audio
Connect on Facebook | Twitter | GPS@cnn.com
Buy past episodes on iTunes! | Download the audio podcast
Check out all of Fareed's Washington Post columns here:
Obama as a foreign policy president?
Why Snowden should stand trial in U.S.
Hillary Clinton's truly hard choice
China's trapped transition
Obama should rethink Syria strategy
Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.
RSS - Posts
Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.
Join 4,853 other followers