Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
With no negotiated solution in sight and international powers ruling out any military intervention, Syria’s eight-month uprising looks to be heading towards civil war. Today, Turkey said that it does not wish to consider military intervention but is “ready for any scenario.”
Despite growing pressure from the region and across the world, the Syrian government is pursuing its military campaign against protesters. Their uprising has become an armed one, as military defections rise and opposition attitudes harden.
The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is a band of defectors led by Colonel Riyad al-Assad. It first declared its existence in late July and has been receiving increasing attention in recent weeks. It is mostly active in the provinces of Idlib and Homs, north of Damascus and Dera’a, to the south. It has established enclaves outside of government control, and is reported to have bases in Hatay province in Turkey, and in north Lebanon.
The FSA proclaims that it has over 15,000 soldiers, although it is unclear how well coordinated they are, and some defectors remain largely independent. However, a number of things suggest that the militants’ strength is rising.
First is the proliferation of weapons, supplied via Lebanon: the price of Kalashnikov assault rifles there has soared, and the Syrian army has been laying minefields to deter cross-border weapons smuggling. Then there is the changing locality of violence - nearer the capital. The FSA claimed it carried out the November 16 attack on an intelligence base, bringing the battle to the outskirts of Damascus for the first time.
Finally, popular support for the militants appears to be rising. Civil opposition groups, previously ambivalent about an armed uprising, called their November 25 protest the Friday of ‘May the Free Syrian Army Protect Us’. However, opposition groups outside Syria have maintained a careful distance from the FSA; but it is one of the few organizations with a real presence on the ground, and may be an important political player in the months to come.
Militias loyal to President Bashar al-Assad are raising the risk of the uprising becoming a civil war. In some areas, these informal gangs known as ‘shabbiha’ (‘ghosts’) - initially deployed to supplement the regular army - appear to be starting to act independently of their regime paymasters. Thus gang leaders in Homs have begun behaving as warlords, using their power to extract economic gain, for example by kidnapping for ransom. If this trend develops, any civil war (and aftermath) would be complicated by these emergent criminal networks.
Another threat to the government’s stability has emerged in the past two weeks. People in Damascus are now openly expressing anger over the lack of heating oil and cooking gas and are unhappy at the prospect of a long, cold winter with fuel shortages. Long hours queuing to purchase oil at twice the normal price has provided Syrians with a new public space in which to grumble about the government. In coming months, these grievances and the frustrations of the business community will lead to revival of protests and anti-regime feeling in Damascus and Aleppo.
The steady stream of pro-regime rallies in Damascus is at the very least disruptive and may be starting to irritate the silent majority. If opposition gathers pace in Damascus, protests are likely to spread to areas so far showing minimal signs of dissent. Such a development would signal a serious threat to Assad rule. The president has announced elections and constitutional reforms for early next year. However, the presence of tanks on the streets has made talk of reform sound absurd to many Syrians.
As the regime and opposition become increasingly entrenched, hopes of a peaceful transition are fading. The Assad regime’s intransigence appears to be leading to civil war - and one in which the cohesion to date of both pro-regime and opposition armed forces is likely to dissolve.
For samples of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, click here.
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Now thanks to the report fron Oxford Analytica, the right-wing thugs in Washington couldn't be happier since a civil war in Syria is exactly what they want as an excuse to intervene militarily and take over.
um the president is a democrat and the Senate is a democrat majority, leaving only the house as a republican majority, what are you talking about?
that is the truth, and liberals hate the truth, plus they hate taking responsibility when THEY are in control, so they just push the blame to others
A civil war will just be another event on the long list of uprisings, instability and coups etc in Syria's modern history. The top brass within the military make up of members of the Alawite. They will fight to the bitter end, as they have a lot to lose, if Bashar al-Assad falls.
Do you think the democrats aren't right wing? They may not go as far as the republicans but this isn't a capitalist country because it's run by left wingers, it would do you both some good to really study what a liberal, a socialist, and a communist really is before you start flinging around words you don't fully understand.
always someone else's fault! now its a "report", next you will suggest that the syrian strife is a Mossad plot.
You're a perfect example of lunacy and being unintelligent.
1. Politicians almost everywhere are not unhappy that Assad may go – even other radicals don't like him.
2. Question – are we supposed to not be happy and why?
3. Since when has Obama become a right-winger?
4. since when has Joe Biden become a right-winger?
5. Do you ever read to learn or just to get "ammo" for your own opinion?
Jeeshhh...some people....
Anyone with half a brain knows that both Obama and Biden became right-wingers after they assumed the Presidency and Vice Presidency respectively in 2009. Moreover, Congress is run by right-wingers who in turn work for the Military-Industrial-Complex.
The cowardly left-wing thugs are content at burying their heads in the ground and letting evil regimes slaughter their populations. Their mantra for the past 50 years has been "No new Vietnam!"
cowardly left-wing thugs? lol, youre contradictory statements are too funny. its not so much "burrying their heads in the ground to let evil regimes slaughter their populations" it more of not getting involved in matters where we need not be. a military intervention here could very well cause WW3. but what do i know? maybe we are better off as being the world police
Yes, the self contradicting language is funny. But so is your double standard. Libya is now liberated from a tyrranical regime with no loss of US life and billions of dollars less than the war in Iraq cost us. Did the Bush administration do anything about Somalia. What about Cuba? Venezuela? It's not like conservatives have used military intervention to resolve conflicts in a host of areas that have presented threats to the U.S. So why make this a liberal / conservative thing?
Gaddafi gone without a single American/NATO life lost during their conflict. THAT is what you a mission accomplished.
We do not need to be the police and defenders of the world. We are broke. We need to take care of business at home or their will be no more USA. Lets put our own house in order before we worry about spending more money we borrow from China to defend the other people of the world. With over 700 military bases in over 110 foreign countries, we cannot even afford what we have, let alone get involved in yet another war.
It's the Arab League putting the most pressure on? You're point is not only stupid it is counter-intuitive! Syria's leadership doesn't care what the right-wingers in congress would like to see.
Like
Hey Juan,
Before you call some else stupid, you might first check your grammar. Notice I used the word "your," as in possessive. You used the contraction "You're" meaning "you are" the second sentence of your post. I now quote "You're point is." See my point?
While we're at it, Chalk, we should prohibit the use of prepositions to start sentences...if we're concerned with grammar here. Just sayin.
If we go to war, it is Obama's decision. He led the surge in Afghanistan because he was wrong on Iraq when he said the surge wouldn't work. It is ignorant with a democratic senate and the White House Democratic to suggest if we go to war it is right wing thugs. Try getting an education.
And you must then think that Bush was right when he said mission accomplished! We could not afford that war or the others we got involved in. Didn't Bush start the Afghanistan and Iraq wars during his administration? As I remember the USA was also losing 750,000 jobs a month when Obama was sworn in!
One uneducated small voice!
If civil war was ever to break in Syria, it would be because SYRIAN DID NOT KNOW BETTER. So take your propoganda and SHOVE IT.
There will be no military intervention in Syria because Russia has a naval base there and has strong trade ties with Syria.
Good. Kill each other.
Agree. I'm tired of sticking our nose into everyone elses business. We're not parents to every other nation on this earth. Let the syrians sort it out.
Hmm, Syrians are human beings. Any reference to towel heads shows a lack of intelligence and basic humanity. War is never good for anyone who is hurt or killed.
I think the only true Syrian is Assad. He is doing all this for his beloved country.
Troll alert!
I think the only none true Syrian is Assad. He is doing all he can to kill Syrian people for his beloved power.
True but add the majority of the Syrians who are with President Bashar, also! They didn't sell their country to the gulf pigs and the west as the so called opposition did!
Dear "truthit is":
You seem to be expending a lot of effort and time defending the Syrian government. If I didn't know any better, I would think that someone is paying you to do this.
Assad is a butt ugly gooney trust baby who inherited power, earned nothing and is widely reviled even among Arabs. He is going down as it is just a matter of time with or without outside intervention. Preferably, he goes down in a civil war where his head will end up on a stick with all his cronies slaughtered. That will be sweet justice.
If the people are unhappy with a leader then the leader will not stand for long, no matter where they are.
The majority of Syrian People are with their president!!! Watch the Video and independent news source, then you'll know!!!
The majority of Syrians DO love their president and they support him ! But leave it to the media to distort the truth. Let's face it, the media will cause division of all people, all of the time. Its causes a distraction for people to spend their time putting their trust and faith in other things rather than in God.
I could care less. They can butcher each other.
Saying that you "could care less" implies you still care. The proper statement, and that is if you certainly do not care about something is: "You couldn't care less" which shows no further ability to care for something.
President Bashar will withstand the onslaught from the gulf pigs and the west cause the majority of the Syrians are with him!!! People, you need to find an Independent news source to show you the truth about whats going on in Syria!!! The Syrian people know there's outside interference and arm's smuggling to terrorist thugs to cause trouble in their country!!! LONG LIVE SYRIA< THE SYRIAN PEOPLE & PRESIDENT BASHAR!!!
This dictator supposed to be an ophthalmologist. He is definately a blind one who cannot see. His pictures and his father picture before is a symbole of schizophrenia and grandiosity. No better than Hitler. This little Hitler of syria need to stop his genocide and learn what happen to Gadafi. Assad need to stop civil war in the middle east it is not good for any one.
Assad didn't start the Battle but will finish it!!! President Bashar along with the majority of the Syrians will show you, the gulf pigs and the west not to mess with their country!!!
To assad thugs who is supporting him you will be the first to abandon him when his time is over.
His time is over when he decides not what some phony opposition with the help of the gulf goat beard princes and the west want!! 20million strong Syrians are with him!!!
To The Good People of Syria: You are in our thoughts and prayers.
To al-Asaad and his Thug Generals: The party is over for you tyrants.
They don't need your prayers!! Just tell your politicians to stay away from Syria and the Syrian people will be just fine!!! 20million strong are with President Bashar!!! They want him to lead the change from within, with no outside interference like what's happening now!!!
The above picture is an example how dictator force to drive the masses in support of his agenda. We have seen similar pictures in the soviet union , north korea, china as well as eastern europe ;how communist mobilize the masses under force or beer the consequences such as loosing their jobs. Assad is forcing syrain christians to rally by him. Syrian christians did not forget what Assad thugs did in lebanon in Zehli, Damour, Ashrafiah ect. .. His thugs had assasinated many christian lebanese who stood up for thier freedom and end his occupation.
The Syrian Christians are with their President!! You must be a LEBO!!! GAGA follower!!! People aren't forced to do anything! Your lies won't work, go lie to somewhere else!!! I have many Syrian & Lebanese friends who rally for Syria and are for President Bashar!!!
Do you like little boys? So do i. Drop me an email at adam.baumgarten@macquarie.com
Next stop for the Muslim Brotherhood express – Syria.
Oh look the CIA destabilizing countries AGAIN and we sit eating it up like its a populist movement.
You have no right to whine about the upcoming wars when you sit and let your politicians and lobbyists OPENLY run wild in a system where every check and balance has been methodically broken or ignored in the matter of a couple of decades.
Yes, you are overworked and don't have time to spending looking up geopolitics but most don't even know how THEIR OWN system of government (doesn't) work. History is one of the most boring and useful classes because it enables us to learn from the past mistakes of others...and we aren't doing our studying.
I am sure when we start start more African proxy wars in addition to the middle east everyone will assume the casus belli is that the dictators (that were our best friends a couple years ago) are suddenly the worst beings on the planet and we are the good guys and going to go stop them!
Except ... we aren't ... our goal is to slow the Red Chinese machines thirst for oil (and hence growth) and ousting anyone who does business with them (go look at who's investing in Africa and the Middle East... no one will even try this so I'm wasting my breath)
On the other hand... ignorance is always a good defense in rigged war crimes trials remember? of course you don't....brb Gene Simmons Family Jewels is on.
At least we will be able to TIVO the wars in 1080P (just don't skip all the general electric commercials, CNN hates that)
Yeah 'No tanks. Oh no! No tanks at all. These are just 'representations' of tank. Its an art thing. Oh yes they're very GOOD representations of tanks – oh yes. But not real tanks at all. Very good conceptual art for the people we have here in Syria"
Not to worry. Sarah Palin is on her way to Damascus, Alabama right now to straighten this whole thing out. She's taking a big tray of s'mores with her.
I heard yesterday that when Syria blows, it will blow outward and drag a lot of players into the conflict. It won't just be an internal thing. Expect it to be worse than Libya or Yemen.
First of all, I am sick of seeing Democrats on here saying we should "mind our own business", and the Republicans who say "let them butcher each other". Just becasue life sucks here in the US doesn't mean that we can't be empathetic or compassionate to those being "butchered" by their government. By the way, the Syrian don't want the US or other powers to "mind our own business" on this one. I seriouslly think that some of you people on this blog are psychopathic. Quit acting like things in the US are worse than they are anywhere else.
On another note, I hope that Turkey, and Libya do step up and train the Syrian insurgency, and also give them weapons. I will even go over there if I have to. My biggest hope is that the Great powers can step up like they did in Libya.
It would be interesting to have these posts moderated. The "dialogue" is highly disrespectful, error-prone and divisive. Not qualities that lead to intelligent discussions or decisions. It's like watching a bunch of drunks shouting F-you at each other – it accomplishes nothing.
F you, Griswold.
The USA will not enter this conflict. Obama was sensible about Libya. The most likely scenario is the growth of local players such as Turkey but working low key giving safe haven and arms to militants. The USA is finally learning the financial and international cost of foreign interventions. What would a US leader say to the American people about a reason for intervention in this conflict? We have no dog in this fight. What with our deficits so high we can hardly feed our poor and maintain the infrastructure of our own company let alone fight another war for ... humiliation and stupidity.
How many 'sensible' US weapons were dropped on human beings in Libya ?
Iran will do EVERYTHING in their power to quell any uprisings in Syria. The fact the US is pulling out of Iraq, and therefore leaving an open corridor for Iran to help the Syrian government materially and logistically, only happens to be a very convenient timing factor for the disgusting hardline thinkers of the middle east.
This article just repeats the same negative propaganda against Syria. The Syrian army and the vast majority of Syrians regardless of their ethnicity and religion are united under Assad's leadership and will not go into civil war regardless of the efforts by the anti-Syria media, Gulf countries, USA, Turkey, and Europe that have been deployed with the hope to drive the country into instability.
Good Morning.
May be Iran can help.
May be Iraq can help.
I have kept $2 trillion for the cause...
brothers are fighting here.
PLO leader Yassar Arafat can help....
Mubarak can change.
India should host nepal
India can host Sri Lanka and Bangladesh...
Pakistan can host Afghanistan...
Sweden can host Norway
thanks
Sam Rupani
Houston
No they are not edging towards civil war no matter how much CNN wishes it. Stop lying.
Isolated Syria will make it stronger..Enough with your western dreams.
Syria is the has the oldest history in the world..Nothing will happen, just if USA does like Iraq. But Syria sa not iraq!!
How we have to consider Syria of crisis. is it can affect worldwide?They don't want military government anymore. They want to elect their own reader by their hands. Recent Arab counties of protests against dictatorship just seems medieval's revolution. Why does Arabians starting to recognize the importance of democracy now?
So now what Syria is going to is civil war, but what Libya went through was liberation? Why the different nomenclature?
Why are many here suddenly so critical about this Arab spring development?
I almost start to think there are many pro Assad agents on the CNN website
Assad seems a very determined leader to take out many with him at the cost of the Country which apparently isthe way this type of person chooses. If he can be offered free passage to another place and leave never to return to Syria then this may be an out for all, but he should do it immediately and save the country from these harsh conditions.
May the civil unrest grow fiercer as it moves eastward.
shame on you Obama and USA , WHY LEAVING THIS THUG KILLER IN SYRIA get red of the Syrian regime now this Syrian government along side with Hezbollah are the evil hands of Iran in the region.
LIBYAN MUSLIMS ARE EVIL.....CAPTURING MUSLIM LEADER TORTURING HIM THEN KILLING HIM ALONG WITH PRISONERS, PUTTING HIS BODY ON THE FLOOR AND ASKING OTHER STUPID LIBYAN MUSLIMS TO TAKE PICTURES IS THIS ISLAM IN LIBYA!?? THIS WHAT THE ISLAMIC BROTHERHOOD WILL BRING TO AFRICA...EGYPT AND OTHER PLACES.....they are worse than Iran and Iraqi government , Syrian and Hezbollah all together
F IRAN F SYRIA F THE SHIIA FC IRAQI SHIIA FC KHOMEINI FC AL SESTANI AND FC ALL OF YOU MUSLIMS SHIIA THUGS AND KILLERS LEAVE USA GO BACK HOME TO IRAN AND PAKISTAN FC HEZBOLLAH.............