Editor’s Note: Daniel R. DePetris is Senior Associate Editor of the Journal on Terrorism and Security Analysis.
By Daniel R. DePetris - Special to CNN
In a play out of the old American Civil Rights Movement, tens of thousands of Yemeni protesters from the embattled city of Taiz organized and set out en mass to demonstrate the epitome of non-violent civil disobedience. The subject in question was the Gulf Arab initiative, an agreement forged by Yemen’s wealthier neighbors to ease Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh out of office without inciting more turmoil and bloodshed. The only problem, at least from the protesters’ viewpoint, is that the deal allows Saleh to skate on charges of murdering hundreds of fellow Yemenis over a nearly yearlong period.
What was once a campaign against Saleh’s three-decade reign has now morphed into a project with new aims under a new transitional Yemeni Government. The Yemeni political opposition, led by the Joint Meetings Parties, may be content with the agreement’s provisions, but it has become clear ever since Saleh signed that the real protesters on the ground - the people who are actually marching in the streets and risking their lives - are not yet ready to let their old leader off the hook.
Despite their success in forcing Saleh to finally leave, Yemenis of all political, ideological, and religious backgrounds are rightly hesitant to declare victory. Yemen’s Defense Ministry remains in the vestiges of the Saleh family after all, with onetime heir-apparent Ahmed Ali Saleh in full control over Yemen’s elite Republican Guard unit. A Saleh nephew continues to hold onto his command of the Central Security Forces, as well as Yemen’s counterterrorism apparatus—the same unit that has received millions of dollars in funding from the United States. Those forces allegedly shot and killed thirteen protesters who took part in the one-day march from Taiz to Sana’a last week, illustrating once again that while Saleh may no longer be officially in charge, his influence still runs through the blood of the younger generation.
With Saleh now nominally out, the Obama administration has tried to stay on top of events. U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Gerald M. Feirestein has been in frequent contact with Yemeni transitional figures, as has President Obama’s top counterterrorism adviser, John O. Brennan. The attention is more than warranted, for the administration placed upon Abdullah Saleh the specially designated status of an important counterterrorism partner (even if he diverted some of that counterterrorism assistance to fight off his domestic rivals). The absence of Saleh means an absence of a valuable partner, a man who at least tolerated US covert operations on Yemeni territory. Little is known about Saleh’s deputy-turned interim president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, except that he is independent enough to be acceptable to all sides in Yemen’s protracted political crisis.
Whether or not Saleh’s past relationship with Washington has anything to do with the Obama administration’s decision to let him into the United States may be jumping to conclusions. The Yemeni President was reportedly debating whether to travel to the United States for quite some time, going so far as to mention it to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. As the story has surfaced and developed, unnamed senior U.S. officials have confirmed this version of events, stressing that the administration is deliberating the option pending a number of conditions - the biggest one being that he does not use U.S. territory to stage a political comeback.
Unfortunately, a political comeback is exactly what Saleh may be hatching. The Gulf Cooperation Council agreement does not permit him to eventually return to Yemeni political life as an opposition candidate. Saleh himself has since indicated in his public statements that he will indeed return to Yemen in some political capacity, “Because I won’t leave by people and comrades.”
Saleh will most likely behave himself if he is fortunate enough to hit U.S. soil, which would help alleviate many of the public relations concerns that the Obama administration has been thinking about during these last few days.
But in the long run, it may not matter if Saleh behaves himself while in the United States. Based on his survival skills in politics, Saleh will most certainly weigh a future return to politics. And when he does, there is the very real possibility of millions of Yemenis associating the United States with that return - even if the link is not very strong. Washington learned the hard way with Shah Reza Pahlavi of how politically dicey an unpopular visa entry can be. While Saleh’s case is different from that of the Shah, the final effect could very well be similar. Instead of an America seen as a positive force for the Yemeni people’s democratic rights and aspirations, the nation runs the risk of being perceived as a willing host to a dictator with blood on his hands.
If Saleh is granted a visa, he will only be in the United States temporarily, until his treatment is over. Yet even a temporary stay could hurt America’s image in Yemen at a time when the Obama administration should be working with Yemen’s future leaders - the young men and women who braved bullets, arrests and torture to make their country a far better place to live.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Daniel DePetris.
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Saleh must have thought about his future. Where else can he go? If he comes to the U.S. for medical treatment, what happens afterwardsI? I doubt if he would seek political asylum in America. He will be 70 next year. Surely he wants to die and be buried in his home country. Tell him to go to Europe for his treatment. We have good doctors here too.
Reconsidering the Goldstone Report on Israel and war crimes Text Size PrintE-mailReprintsBy Richard Goldstone, Friday, April 1, 8:42 PMpuisqu'aucun me9dia n'en rplreaa en France.
The U. S. government has a history of the power game of regime change. Exiles from some nation with an oppressive government come to the United States and approach our government with what appears to be a win-win agreement. If we put them into power, they will further the interests of the United States. In this case, the oppressive government is coming to the United States to put him back into power.
We have made President Saleh an ally of the United States because he declares himself to be against terrorism. The root cause of terrorism is not what George W. Bush said it is... That "some people are good, and some people are bad, and the bad people want to hurt the good people." The root cause of terrorism is that people on the bottom have no voice in matters of grave concern, and must raise their voice to be heard, oftentimes to the point of violence.
The pendulum has swung to its extreme. The power game of regime change no longer works. In fact, it never did. It just took a long time to reach its ultimate conclusion. Game over. Now, what are we going to do instead?
I doubt if the Obama Administration needs Saleh und wants to restore him to power. Once Saleh leaves Yemen, there's no going back. The country doesn't need him and he can go to exile in Saudi Arabia. The Administration is well-advised to focus on the keyplayers in the country instead.
This essentially puts at a head two competing foreign policies. President Obama, by verbally withdrawing support for Mubarak, reversed a long standing policy of supporting dictator allies for regional stability, even if this is not in the best interests of the people of that country. Bush claimed the Bush doctrine was to spread democracy across the world and did so in Iraq, but truly President Bush always walked in lock-step with our allies.
President Obama policy has been fundamentally different. He has shown, verbally at least, a willingness to abandon his allies in the interest of the people of those countries. This moral policy may pay dividends in the long term, but could make some of our allies with questionable legitimacy and morality start looking over their shoulders thinking they could be next.
Here's a man ten times worse than Saddam Hussein ever thought of being and Barack Obama wants to let him into this country!!! This is quite ludicrous, to say the least and proves just how low Obama's moral principles have become. At least make this dictator agree to stand trial and face up to what he did first!
WE LIKE SALEH WE SAY YES HE CAN HAVE HIS VISA, HE BETTER THAN THOSE IRANIANS TERRORISTS WHO LIVE IN USA AND THE SHIIA THUGS BETTER THAN THOSE RUSSIAN AND CHINESE WHO LIVE HERE, RUSSIA AND CHINA DON'T EVEN HAVE A FAIR ELECTION OR HUMAN RIGHTS.
Can you prove any of that mumbo-jumbo you posted above? I think not!!! Besides, who is more evil than the MIC(military-industrial-complex) which has taken over this country?
IRAQ IS NOT DEMOCRATIC!!! USA GAVE IRAQ TO THE EVIL IRANIANS ON A SILVER PLATTER. NORI AL MALEKI IS IRANIAN MAN ALSO AL MAHDI AL SADDER AL HAKEEM AL JA3FRARI ALL ARE IRANIANS, ALL SUPPORT THE TERRORISTS ORGANIZATION HEZBOLLAH AND SYRIAN ASAD KILLERS. NO FAIR ELECTION IN IRAQ IT IS PURE EVIL STATE LIKE IRAN AND SYRIA.THE SHIIA TAKEN OVER IRAQ BY FORCE WITH HELP OF USA. 130 000 PRISONERS STILL IN IRAQ SAME NUMBER IN SYRIA AND MORE IN IRAN......THOSE THUGS DON'T KNOW DEMOCRACY NORI AL MALEKI MUST LEAVE POWER SAME AS BASHAR AL ASAD THOSE THUGS ARE WORSE THAN HITLER
Allison,This is absolutley aaizmng! I just stumbled upon this from one of your emails. SO cool what you are doing with the kids! I can't wait to talk to you all about it! Hope your trip was so fun! Jen Wood
A lot of the things you aserst happens to be astonishingly appropriate and that makes me ponder why I hadn't looked at this with this light before. This particular article really did switch the light on for me personally as far as this particular subject goes. However there is actually one particular issue I am not necessarily too comfortable with and while I make an effort to reconcile that with the central idea of the issue, let me observe just what all the rest of the visitors have to say.Very well done.
supporters of the President of Yemen Still representing the majority, Yemeni President rule justly, provided security and stability, the majority of people support him, even now, everyone knows what happened to him by accident, and he needs treatment, the support of the United States against terrorism, and this is one of the reasons for the revolution they want to support al-Qaeda and Houthis and terrorism, and the biggest proof that many of them from al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood and Houthis
Come on shay5ah, do you honestly believe what you posted above? Nobody else with half a brain would! This Ali Abdullah Saleh is nothing but pure evil from head to toe just as the Shah of Iran was!!!
"The only problem, at least from the protesters’ viewpoint, is that the deal allows Saleh to skate on charges of murdering hundreds of fellow Yemenis over a nearly yearlong period. "
That's a stupid thing to say, there are many 'world leaders' who are 'skating on charges' as well, some of them in the Wild Wild West. Turn a blind eye, be corrupt by all means but don't insult our intelligence!
HE IS A GOOD MAN USA MUST HELP HIM, USA HELPED SHAH OF IRAN AND OTHERS ALSO HELPED BENLADIN....HELP THIS MAN WHO FOUGHT THOSE EVIL AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLIM FUNDAMENTALISTS
"Only God is good"