Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard navy commander Admiral Ali Fadavi announced yesterday that the country will hold a new exercise in the Strait of Hormuz in February. The planned war games will follow an exercise earlier this week in which Iran launched three anti-ship missiles. The firing of a handful of missiles for media effect is not necessarily significant - but the threat they represent is. Their overt use was intended as a signal to Washington that U.S. naval assets cannot operate with impunity near Iranian waters, especially in the event (however unlikely) that Tehran carries out its threat to close the Strait.
Iran has a fairly well-developed indigenous capacity to produce missiles, with particular strength in anti-ship and ballistic designs. Technical help has come from North Korea in exchange for Iranian investment to bankroll the necessary research. China has also had input, and Iranian scientists have been adapting and improving Chinese designs.
The naval exercise earlier this week showcased two new assets. The Qader is a domestically produced system with a range of 200 kilometres, designed to be launched from either sea or land to hit large surface vessels. It is a sea-skimming missile; is not ballistic and cannot carry a nuclear warhead. The Noor missile is similar to the Qader, but has a longer range. While the Noor in the latest case was launched from a ship, in the event of any hostilities in the Persian Gulf, Iran would most likely rely on its land-based missile assets.
Western naval vessels would have the defensive capabilities to cope with Iranian anti-ship missiles in a hypothetical engagement in open waters, but the Strait of Hormuz is a different operating environment. Missiles fired from shore-based batteries may be picked up late and counter-measures not deployed in time - particularly if the target is operating close to land. Hence, Iranian land-based anti-ship missiles would present a clear danger to both naval and merchant vessels operating close to shore and in the narrow sea lanes of the Strait.
Tehran has realised since the 1980s that its best means of national defence was to develop ballistic missiles. Its air force would be destroyed in fairly short order in any large-scale attack, making Iran reliant on a deterrence-based strategy. On the basis of the venerable Soviet Scud missile, Iran (which has not signed the Missile Technology Control Regime) has made significant strides in developing ballistic missiles over the last few decades. And as its ballistic missiles increase in potency and survivability, the threat they pose will likewise increase.
However, if Iran is to develop a viable nuclear deterrent, it needs to not only produce the actual weapon, but also to ensure that the associated missile is large enough to carry a nuclear device. Likewise, the device itself must also be small enough to be delivered. The complexity of these three inter-related technological advances explains why Tehran is unlikely to present a nuclear threat to its neighbours for years, if not decades, to come.
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Iran couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Or even the barn side of a broad. Hahahahahahahahaha.
It will hit your backside for sure.....HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
I'M TYPING IN CAPS BECAUSE I THINK PEOPLE WILL NOTICE WHAT I HAVE TO SAY IF I DO, BUT REALLY THEY DON'T AND MOST PEOPLE FIND THIS ANNOYING TO READ. I WONDER IF ANY OF YOU NIMRODS WILL LEARN SOMETHING FROM THIS POST.
In Antarctica have found oil. The government of the USA has declared – to a bloody regime of penguins the end will soon come.
You have an oil? Then we go to you/ USA GOV
Wow I did not realise that readers of CNN included top missile and rocket experts able to make such definative statments with no evidence to support it.
Does anyone really think Iran will start a war? The US will simply redeploy the troops they pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Look at what hapenned to Libya. 100 missiles in 3 days? An oil embargo alone will be enough to bring Iran to its knees, although they do have a right to defend themselves.
No one will really have the guts to say what the end game is here; strategic influence, Israel's most favoured nation status being challenged, etc etc.
Iran is getting too powerful and has the technology to back it (how do you down a drone – a jet engined stealth drone without damage and allowing it to self destruct?). And certain other countries do not like it.
America and Iran deserve each other.
Have been killed so Indians because of their earths... So killed Iraqis for oil... So will kill also others
You have an oil? Then we go to you/ USA, Pentagon
It should be understood that Iran is Economically, Technically and Financial more advanced and capable in nuclear technology compared to Pakistan whereas Pakistan is nuclear weapon state. Let us see if there is some kind of surprise in this new game.
how do you know that they can't hit the side of a barn?? do you base your assessment on intelligence ? because what you claim isn't very intelligent . hahahaha you're just blowing steam from your behind.
Syria's embattled government has been holding jailed dissidents underground and paying pro-government gang members $100 a day to crack down on protesters as it tries to quell months of demonstrations against it, a former defense official said.
liotlewtlf789 on September 19, 2011 hey i just want everybody to know that scammers are out there and they will take your account and ur neopoints so dont trust these people. they took my account and took away 40,000 of my neopoints. but if they do take them then just quit the game and see the real world cuz u shouldnt put ur efforts into something that isnt even real. if you do so then you will see that you will be much happier
THE RECENT ATTACK IN IRAQ CAME AFTER MOQTADA AL QATHER AND HIS MAHDI MILITIA THUGS WORN ANOTHER SHIIA THUGS CALLED ASYEB AHEL AL HAQ , THOSE ASYEB ARE GROUP OF THUGS BACKED BY IRAN SEPERATED FROM MOQTADA AL QATHER, NOW THE 2 FRACTION ARE SCORING AND KILLING EACH OTHER AND ATTACKING CIVILIANS AND BLAMING THE SUNNIS , IT WILL KNOWN IN IRAQ THAT THOSE 2 GROUPS KILLED MANY CIVILIANS THAN USA DID.....THEY ARE EVIL SHIIA THUGS TRYING TO CONTROL IRAQ, AL SADDER GROUP ARE IN SADDER CITY AND NASREYA WHERE THE ATTACK TOOK PLACE FEW DAYS AFTER SADDER WORN AL KHAZALY AND ASYEB AL HAQ SO THEY DID THIS TO SHOW HM THEY MEAN WAR. USA MUST STOP IRAN , MUST GET RED OF NORI AL MALEKI IF THEY WANT TO SEE PEACE IN IRAQ.
Did your grandma give you all this information? get a life & stop BSin.
I think they already know this....but thanks for the information.
Shi'a and Sunni have been at war since 632. Your post just adds to the war-noise. This is the reason why the West fears Iranian nuclear capability. As more and more failed Islamic Countries get nuclear weapons, their Shi'a vs. Sunni conflict threaten the survival of humans on earth.
Do you get it?
sanjosemike
If Iran is "unlikely to present a nuclear threat to its neighbours for years, if not decades", why all these fear and belligerence? Of course, one should never underestimate his adversary.
Quite right, j. von hettlingen. The right-wing thugs in Washington are just trying to scare us as usual. Since fear is a motivating factor, the right-wing politicians have been using it for decades to gain votes and have been only too successful at it!!!
make no mistake it is in the bible....THE EVIL ARMY RISE FROM CHINA , IRAN , IRAQ AND SYRIA THOSE THUGS SHIIA ARE TAKEN OVER IRAN , IRAQ AND SYRIA AND USA ARE HELPING THEM AND DOING NOTHING TO STOP THEM , WHEN CHINA WILL HELP THOSE EVIL ARMY THE ONLY DIRECTION THEY WILL GO IS TO CONTROL ISRAEL AND SAUDI ARABIA.....THEY WILL CONTROL THE GULF STATES OIL AND NUCLEAR STAND OFF WILL BRING THAT REGION TO WORLD WAR 3
the bible and some other prophesies....the problem is....the time element is in question. We may have to be more concerned with solar flares than WW3. Any way, most of these events are out of the general population control anyway...so why worry about things over which you have no control ?
Please stop posting in upper case letters. Posts like that are very difficult to read. You may think that people will read them, but most avoid reading upper case posts. It's considered "YELLING".
sanjosemike
ONESMALLVOICE,,,,YOU ARE A SICK ONE SMALL BRAIN AND SMALL TESTES.....LEARN THE HISTORY....you Persian thugs , shiia are evil, the dark evil empire of iran will demise soon
You seem quiet interested in measuring peoples TESTES, that explains where you coming from idiot.
No missiles are dangerous than American's. Iran is less a threat than America to the world.
We already spend nearly 8$ for 1$ for the next largest spender in defense (China)... if ya haven't noticed, we have a bit of a deficit problem and can not maintain the current levels of spending.... Obama is being wise to downsize...
Obama =Wisdom? Someone lives in la la land.
The difference is that you can sleep better.
The only thing that will strengthen Iran's resolve if the West weakens theres. The Axis of this evil is not just Iran but those countries that give military aid. Can you imagine: A war in the Pacific and in the Middle East and Obama wants to reduce the military in the U.S.A. while these countries are enlarging theirs. Great logic!
There is only one Axis of Evil in the world today douglas, and that comprises of the United States, Great Britain and France since they're the ones trying to dominate Central Asia!
encourage the middle east and asian countries to growing million trees instead of war and rescue the world ,we should stop climate chang ebefire it stop us .
Only trees make trees.
Men make war.
Warmongering doesnt end it seems
No it doesn't bribarian, much to my disgust! As long as the right-wing politicians in Washington seek reelection and the so-called "fat cats" in the "defense" industries seek to fatten their bank accounts, it will continue!!!
Iran is not the threat o the world. at one time there was weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and 1 million people died but where are that weapons. please stop these war's and transfer peace to he future generation rather then hatred.
Don't buy the propaganda people Iran is no threat to anyone they have not invaded a country in centuries though they have been invaded several times for their resources. And don't forget it was the CIA and MI6 that started the coup which overthrew the democratically elected government of Iran and installed the regime they claim to be at odds with today. NO MORE WARS to line the pockets of politicians and corporations. DO NOT BELIEVE the propaganda spread by Israel and her lap-dog America. IRAN IS NO THREAT.
It's a threat to human dignity and human decency. Iran is a totally perverted totalitarian regime that should offend every lover of freedom.
it certainly offends their own people...the intelligent intellectuals. Only the poorly educated working class is in favor of the current regime.
Living Things? Hi From Australia!
Crap. No missie is dangerous unless used.
Unfortunately you are way off the real situation. You assume that Iran needs to build hight tech nuclear devices to be a threat. In reality they can fire off low tech devices (probably already now) which also do enourmous damage.
What Fareed Zakaria is missing is the delivery. An atomic bomb doesn't need a delivery mechanism that Iran already has. You can load it onto any number of merchant ships that Iran owns and deliver if off the coast of any country that they hate (which is pretty much any western country).
It doesn't have to be accurate to accomplish their aim: to be spiteful and hateful to those that aren't like them.
and I think they would do that. They hate us enough for it. Never mind the global fall-out radiations....they are not thinking very far. By "they", I mean the current political regime....monkey man and the old clerics.
GOVERNMENT ALREADY KILLED 7200 SUNNI AND KURD AND PUT 132000 IN PRISON AND TORTURED 13000 M RAP,.....ED MORE THAN 4000 SUNNI WOMEN THOSE MILITIA THUGS ARE WORSE THAN SERBIAN ARMY , WHERE IS USA WHEN WE NEED THEM!!!///
FAC OFF HAQ
luaciluiw on August 30, 2011 i like my personality, because i am a really happy person and i love to smile and make other people smile with me , kisses from Perú love youu
THE VILLAGE IDIOT HAQ IS ANOTHER IRANIAN THUG WHO SUPPORT AKKKKKHHMEDI NEJAD THE EVIL STUPID RETARD OF IRAN. YES IRANIANS DO HAVE SMALL BRAIN AND TESTES ACCORDING TO IRANIAN WOMEN THAT MANY ENJOYED WITH MOT3A , MOTAA IS LEGAL SE........X IN IRAN
This is all posturing by a puppet America who taking orders from the NeoCon Pigs in Israel – this is all about American Industrial Complex profits and nothing more –
ID10TS
Be careful what you wish for. The latest cancer cure may come out of Israel, which you detest. In the meantime, your friends the Muslims have contributed the following: Jihad, over-population, female slavery, illiteracy in a massive scale, female mutilation, honor killlings, internecine wars, etc. The list goes on.
Has everyone forgotten that ALL the oil facilities in the Persian gulf are in easy range of Iran's missiles? Refineries burn really well and take ten years to rebuild, assuming the companies that made all that stuff even still exist.. Are we willing to do with out oil for ten years to keep Israel happy? we need think really hard about that first.
How dangerous are US's missiles?
It is very diffcult to say that some thing dangours becouse if Iran works with old regem in Irak , this mean that the targenal wipens are very dangours
Iran is a Big monster !!! No one would do anything against Iran !!!!
I notice a lot of Muslims commenting here. As a scholar of Islam since 1994, I must tell you that Islam is about CONQUEST. I must also tell you that ALL Muslims, Shi'ite and Sunni and others, tell us sugar-coated untruths about Islam. This is why there's so much confusion about "the religion of peace and tolerance" which has so many of its "believers" who are slaughtering people, every day, all over the world. Extremists? Hardly. Islam, ITSELF is extreme.
The LAST people to consult about Islam are Muslims. Their god demands that they mislead, confuse and confound us infidels – and they ALL do it, even their clerics and "scholars." I'm also a scholar of Islam, but a a non-Muslim. I can therefore tell of things that Muslims do NOT want you to know. But it's best if you do your OWN study, which is far more reliable than anything someone else (including me) has to say. Get busy!
If we're stupid enough to let Iran's machinations discredit our president enough to cost him re-election, as this author says (and no author is actually named), it means he is saying that none of the American people have "working heads." Maybe he's right...or it could just be wishful thinking. We'd be truly stupid to castigate a leader who is obviously in a "damned if he does, damned if he doesn't" position. How many of US would want to be in such a position and have the vilification pour down on us, no matter what we did?
The Republicans would likely make war on Iran – which is the worst thing we could do. Obama seeks a non-war option, if at all possible. If Iran does put him in enough of a bind, though, he would make war on them, and they know it. So far, they haven't pushed that far. Muslims love the idea of war with the free world, and Obama probably knows that all too well.
Whatever Iran's state of readiness for hostilities, it WILL make them when it feels ready. Right now, it's mostly bluff. And regardless of differences between the sects, on one point they all hang together: that Islam MUST conquer the whole world.
If you look at a map of N. Africa and Europe, you can see Muslims mobilizing. The Arab Spring, which everyone cheered for, made a new bouquet of Islamic States come into being. They are all close to Europe. Europe already has many, many millions of in-residence Muslims. What do you THINK will happen? If Muslims have a clear shot at conquering Europe, are you able to think they won't? No nation on earth is prepared to cope with what they have in store for Europe and then the rest of the free world. They could probably pull it off now, but are waiting to optimize their mobilization, which is going on right in front of our eyes, and we, in our denial about Islam, don't even see it.
We will, though.
spam much?
Eventhough you have claimed to know Islam, but your ignorance is everywhere in your context. Who slaugher people in Somalia, Iraq, Afganistan? All the world wars are hands work of christian like Bush. And for your information, whether you like it or no, the divine revelation in your ancient books shall prevail. God will bring a generation that will stand against your suppression.
Silence!
جيفري فيلتمان نائب وزيرة الخارجية الأمريكية يؤكد اَن قادة العراق السياسيين قادرون على تدارك الازمة الراهنة في البلاد من دون اية مساعدة خارجية
نبيل العربي يحذر من القضاء على فرص تحقيق مصالحة حقيقية في العراق ويندد بتفجيرات الخميس الدامية
رئيس اقليم كردستان العراق يشدد على ان الاكراد لن يشاركوا في اي حكومة قائمة على اساس تهميش المكونات العراقية الاخرى
البارزاني يحذر من انه في حال إستمرت المشاكل السياسية ولم يجد الائتلاف الحاكم برئاسة المالكي حلولا سريعة فإن الاكراد سيقيّمون كل الاحتمالات
وكلاء المرجع الديني محمد صادق الصدر في النجف يحذرون من مغبة دخول عصائب أهل الحق في العملية السياسية ويتهموها بممارسة القتل حتى اليوم
وكلاء المرجع الديني محمد صادق الصدر في النجف يحذرون من مغبة دخول عصائب أهل الحق في العملية السياسية ويتهموها بممارسة القتل حتى اليوم
دبي-الشرقية 7 يناير: حذر عددٌ من وكلاءِ المَرجع الديني مُحمد محمد صادق الصدر في النجف من مغبةِ دخول ِ عصائب أهل الحق في العمليةِ السياسيةمشيرين إلى أن العصائبَ ارتكبت جرائمَ ومازالت تقتل وتُشرد وتُساوم وتَبتز.وقال عددٌ من وكلاء وطلبةِ السيد محمد الصدر في بيان ان الحديثَ عن المقاومة ومواجهةِ القوات المحتلة بعيدٌ كلَ البعد عن عصائبِ أهل الحق وأفعالِها وان العراقيين لن يَنسوْا ما فعلته العصائب من جرائمَ ومازالت تفعل من قتل ٍ وتشريدٍ ومساومة ووصفوهم بأنهم حية ٌ مَلمسُها ناعمٌ وسُمُها قاتل.. واتهم البيان العصائبَ بقتل ِ عددٍ من منتسبي الأجهزة الأمنية في النجف والديوانية بحجةِ حُرمةِ الانتماء فضلا على تنفيذِ 5337 عملية ً استهدفوا فيها الأبرياءَ بضمنِها اغتيالُ النائب عن الكتلة الصدرية صالح العكيلي.
Iran's missiles are about as bad as those "SCUD" missiles in Iraq. Wow, that certainly poses a threat to humanity.
USA, UK, FRANCE, GERMANY THE NATO must attack Iran now before it is too late.
USA must help mojahedi khalq opposition group who are stationed in Iraq,. help the Iranian Kurds up north more than 7 million Kurds in Iran, help Arabestan Sunni region in Iran with more than 9 million Sunni who are repressed by those evil Iranians, help the Assyrian christens in Iran, the Iranians Turks blossh, and many other repressed minorities , Isolate Iran, freeze their assets, also embargo china and Russia \if the deal with them, destroy their electronic by viruses, don't allow them to come to USA AND CANADA , ATTACK THE TERRORISTS HEZBOLLAH AND SYRIAN BASHAR AL KALAB THE EVIL HANDS OF Iran IN THE REGION. Iran is a paper tiger as soon as the tomohak start flying and get red of their command and control their navy peace and the radars then the sky is control by USA make it 24 hours non stop hit until the surrender attack them, from turkey, Afghanistan the gulf, the red sea the Arabian sea and the Arabian gulf. If Obama attack Iran he will win the election too.Help Iraqi Sunni to counter attack the Iranians group in Iraq, the world will be in peace with our those majoos thugs and the dark evil empire of Iran must demise.
Don't kid yourself (Iran) when you burn in hell afterwards...
This article ignores a key fact- you don't need a missile to deliver a nuclear weapon. You just have to disguise the bomb (non miniaturized because it doesn't have to fit on top of a missile) as machine parts, and keep the uranium core in a shielded container separate from the main bomb until it is ready to be deployed. Without the core, the bomb won't let off any radiation that can be detected. The core could easily be smuggled in a luxury boat (Geiger counters don't work against lead shielded cores, and the equipment to detect them by other means aren't portable), and be swam into shore by scuba diver .
And for those of you who will inevitably point out that we would retaliate against Iran if they blew up one of our cities- we wouldn't. Because we could never be sure if they had another hidden in another of our cities. Truth be told, its inevitable that these countries will become nuclear weapon capable. There's nothing that can be done about it.
I don`t know whats more depressing reading this the ignorance or the stupidity,but sadly when it comes to the middle east that seems to be par for the course for a lot of westeners[and I say this as a westener]
Iran,is doing what anybody would do if they knew that the threat issued isn't viable:bluster and show aggression.They can't close the route through which they depend on for the passage of their oil and that of the few friends that they have in China and Russia; Iran show their missile capibility as means of getting the higher ground in the event of a conflict.
It's amazing that people show their feelings w/o any data to back it up. USA and Iran need each other more than what everyone thinks. We need to push for finding a way to eliminate the differences so they can come close together. Iranians are a very proud nation and they'll not back down to anyone no matter how strong the other side is and no matter what the consequences are, thier 1000s of years history has shown that! So why would we want to hit on the war drum?! Iran WILL NOT attack anyone or any country, I am sure they would love to be in peace and harmony with their neighbors and other countries. So let's find a way to make PEACE not WAR!!
USA cannot dere attack Iran! The day USA attack Iran shall be the end of western civilisation. IRAN is not IRAQ, SOMALIA, AFGANISTAN or even PAKISTAN!
Iran's missiles are nothing more than stretched SCUDS, 1960's era ballistic missiles that are lucky to hit a city much less a specific target.
If you want a threat, look at Saudi Arabia and its 100 or so CSS-2 East Wind MRBM missiles it purchased from China. These are fully nuclear capable missile with a CEP of less than 1 mile.
Fareed and Oxford have their heads up their proverbial @'s. Do your homework, "experts". Iran, absent viable missile delivery systems, will walk a nuke into Lebanon by truck...then smuggle it up to the border with Israel and pull the trigger, ignoring the 400,000 innocent Lebanese, and hoping the wind blows all the crap further into Israel. You're so naive, it frightens me. Oh, by the way, a crappy Greek-registered freighter, carrying the same Iranian bomb, could sail up to Port Arthur and drop about 40% of the US gasoline refining capacity in the same manner. Again, you people frighten me. CNN experts.....indeed.
Based on this assessment, why are us, irael and the west so frantic about Iran? I guess when you have WMDs and someone does not bow to you, you just blast them off.
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