Can Europe’s oil boycott really sink Iran?
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, 270 kms south of Tehran, in 2008.
January 24th, 2012
11:56 AM ET

Can Europe’s oil boycott really sink Iran?

Editor's Note: Juan Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan.  The following is reprinted from his blog Informed Comment. The views expressed in this article are solely those of Juan Cole.

By Juan ColeInformed Comment

The European Union threatened Iran on Monday with cutting off petroleum imports into the 27 EU member states, and announced sanctions on Iranian banks and some port and other companies.

Iran sells 18 percent of its petroleum to Europe, and Greece, Italy and Spain are particularly dependent on it. Europe also sells Iran nearly $12 billion a year in goods, which likely will cease, since there will be no way for Iran to pay for these goods. Some in Europe worry that the muscular anti-Iran policy of the UK, France and Germany in northern Europe will worsen the economic crisis of southern Mediterranean countries such as Greece.

Others think that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is still primitive and that allegations that Iran is seeking a nuclear warhead are hype.

About 60% of Iran’s petroleum now goes to Asian countries, especially China, India, South Korea and Japan. China and India have no announced plans to reduce purchases of Iranian crude, and South Korea says it will seek an exemption from the US so as to continue to import. Japan says it plans only very slowly to reduce imports from Iran. Iran and India have just reached an agreement whereby some trade with Iran will be in rupees, to sidestep US sanctions. Indian firms are considering whether to fill the $8 billion gap in exports to Iran left by the Western sanctions (many do not want to be cut off from also exporting to the US, as they would be if third party sanctions were applied to them).

Europe’s squeeze on Iran will not take place until June, and there will be a meeting in May to assess the situation (i.e. to make sure Greece won’t be sunk, along with the European economy, by these steps). There is some indication that much of Europe hopes Iran will be more forthcoming on the nuclear issue with Europe by then, so as to forestall these drastic steps.

Although a European boycott of Iranian oil will increase the cost of doing business for Iran, will hurt the Iranian public, and is already harming the value of the Iranian currency, it is highly unlikely to cut Iran off from exporting to the world market or to put so much pressure on the government that it will change its policies.

In order for Iran to find it impossible to sell its petroleum, world supply would have to exceed world demand by roughly 2.5 million barrels a day. That outcome could be produced either by a fall in world demand (typically as a result of a further economic turn-down) or by an increase in world supply (which would require that all current producers continue to export at at least the same rate, and that some of them export much more than they are currently doing).

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expects world demand for petroleum actually to increase in 2012 by about 1 million barrels a day, up to 89 million b/d over-all. There is probably slightly more demand than supply in the world market, with China and other Asian countries still growing strongly, and the number of cars and trucks driven in Asia increasing rapidly. If Iran’s 2.5 million barrels a day really could be taken off the world market, that would be a total shortfall of 3.5 million barrels a day (if one counts the expected increase in demand), which would cause petroleum prices to skyrocket.

Europe seems to hope that Saudi Arabia will pump an extra 2.5 million barrels a day to keep prices stable if everyone stops buying Iran’s petroleum. But since demand will likely increase this year, Saudi Arabia would have to pump 3.5 million barrels a day to meet the total shortfall. That kind of increased production on a sustained basis is probably beyond Saudi technical capacities, and much of that extra production will likely be “sour” (full of sulfur and other impurities and expensive to refine). Saudi Arabia already is pumping nearly 10 million barrels a day, which is unusually high. That it could do 13.5 million barrels a day is frankly fantastic.

Moreover, there is a lot of evidence that Saudi Arabia does not want to cause prices to fall below $100 a barrel for a while. The kingdom forestalled Arab Spring style protests by much increasing its welfare spending, essentially bribing its population to remain quiet. But to pay for all that extra kindness to its population, it needs its petroleum to sell at historically high prices. If Riyadh increases its production, and Iran continues to find customers around the world for its own petroleum, then the price would fall, creating massive budget shortfalls in Saudi Arabia and making it impossible for the kingdom to follow through on its promises to its people. That course would be, to say the least, dangerous.

Moreover, some current world supplies cannot be counted on. South Sudan is threatening to turn off its spigots to protest high tolls (35%) imposed on its pipeline exports via Sudan proper. There is some danger that the pipes will be ruined if they are not used for a while, so getting that petroleum on line again may be difficult.

Indeed, a lot of oil producers are unstable or face labor actions. Oil workers in Nigeria are threatening to take its 2 million barrels a day of exports off the world market.

Other major producers and exporters face problems of increased domestic consumption, as populations drive more, and of poor management or lack of investment in the sector. Mexico has seen its oil exports fall by 25% since 2004, and may export no petroleum at all in a decade unless there is a lot of new investment in its petroleum industry.

A temporary fall in petroleum prices from time to time is possible, but the US Energy Information Agency expects there to be upward pressure on petroleum prices in the next few years, predicting a price of $120 per barrel by 2016. (This is despite an expected rise in US oil production, which will probably be eaten up by increased US demand as the economy improves).

A secular trend toward higher petroleum prices indicates demand outpacing supply for the foreseeable future, which is exactly the circumstance under which an attempted boycott of Iranian petroleum would fail.

All Europe would be doing is importing petroleum from, say, the United Arab Emirates, which now mainly supplies Japan, and forcing Japan to import instead more Iranian oil– whether Washington likes it or not. It is a shell game, unless world supply exceeds demand by 2.5 million barrels a day for several years, allowing the world to leave Iran’s petroleum in the ground.

Eventually a combination of renewable energy and better automobile batteries may allow the world to fuel automobiles in a less destructive way than via petroleum. But that day is too far off to be relevant to Iran’s progress in closing the nuclear fuel cycle.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of Juan Cole.

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soundoff (119 Responses)
  1. shahin2102

    Thanks for making another hundreds of thousand of innocent Iranians jobless, creating more famine and making protesters against the IR side with the government in order to fight the foreign threat that the US is.
    Way to go cornering them. I bet if war breaks out, it would be Iran's fault. Damn those muslims, right? What have we ever done to them?

    January 24, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Reply
    • j. von hettlingen

      Mr. Cole, your post is a few days old. Meanwhile the parties involved have taken various actions.
      Nevertheless your question still has relevance. Iran suffers under the E.U. embargo and the civilians have to bear the grunt. But the nuclear program is a matter of national pride and ultimately national security. The theocratic regime knows the vitalness of going nuclear, seeing the West is powerless vis-à-vis North Korea. So it is willing to absorb the economic pain to pursue its nuclear goal.

      January 24, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Reply
    • Marine5484

      shahin2102, a better question would be is just what did the U.S. and it's crony allies not do to Iran? In 1953, the U.S. through it;s C.I.A. overthrew the populist Prime Minister Mosadegh and replaced him with the horrific Shah Reza Pahlavi and set up the S.A.V.A.K. to terrorize it's citizens. Hardly any country in the world today has a greater greivance toward this country than Iran, except the possibility of Iraq! This nauseating injustice needs to stop and soon!!!

      January 24, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Reply
      • fred

        aw, poor Iran, the truth is out, Irans problems are all due to the US and its cronies. Irans threats and terrorist activities should not be blamed for their problems, its the fault of the US, the West, the UK, the Zionists, the israelis, France, germany, the Jews, and everyone else in the world except it's buddy, Syria, Aw, so sad.

        January 26, 2012 at 12:12 pm |
      • Jim

        Yup, More and more Americans are waking up to the many lies the media and government have pulled over our parents and grand parents eyes.

        January 26, 2012 at 12:55 pm |
      • Bill

        Irrelevant. This is not 1970, this is 2012. The CIA/US had no part in the formation of the current regime, it is 100% home grown. The CIA/US has no part in the current regimes use of violence and threats of violence on its neighbors.

        The international community (that is everybody except Iran and a very short list of other ... questionably sane ... leaders) all agree: Iran should not have the ability to produce nuclear weapons. So this is in no way a US Iran issue. This is a Crazy Iranian Regime Every Non Muslim That Enjoys Being Alive issue.

        January 26, 2012 at 5:33 pm |
      • Perry

        Hi Bill,

        Saying "Irrelevant. This is not 1970, this is 2012. The CIA/US had no part in the formation of the current regime, it is 100% home grown." Is not an accurate statement. If the CIA wouldn't have replaced their republic with a tyrant then the Iranian Revolution would never have happened.

        January 26, 2012 at 6:58 pm |
      • DAVID KAPLAN

        What utter BS!!! If the majority of the Iranian people are angry at the US it is because we have sat on our hands while the current Islamofascist regime they live under oppresses and slaughters them. The thought that they are angry over 1953, a regime that was in process of collapsing anyway and going Communist to boot, is a pathetic lie that is constantly spread, but it is completely and utterly baseless.

        January 27, 2012 at 1:10 am |
      • Sean

        I guess Iranian don't care what the international community (USA, France, German, England) thinks. It is their right to do whatever they want. They want the bomb, hey it is tough, suck it up princess

        January 27, 2012 at 8:33 am |
    • FlushChina

      Yes, you got it exactly right.

      January 26, 2012 at 10:35 am | Reply
    • Jean

      Sahiin: Iran today has the highest child mortality/GDP on earth emanign they have a good deal of meny but are diverting it to wepons. Their government hangs minors for being gay, has girls under 18 stoned for adultery. they are embarked on a nuclear weapons program. None is s suggesting a food sanctions program but a weapons and oil sanctions program.
      Marine5284 (and not a US Marine, I can tell): Mosadegh was attempting to become a dictator himself. See the wikipedia article. he was NEVER popularly elected. he was appointed by the Shah, and then tried to take power from him. After rhe Sha appointed him, Mosadegh called for general elections, and then cancelled them himself declaring himself premier with no elections and no end point..
      You shoudl also know if not for the US Iran woudl be half the size it is today, occupying as id does large parts of Kurdisatan and Azari lands, which it only held with US help

      January 26, 2012 at 11:00 am | Reply
      • Kevinexcess

        Jean- you are totally out to lunch, dead wrong, lying through your teeth, and have absolutely no clue of what your talking about.

        January 26, 2012 at 12:59 pm |
      • andy

        Jean!! I think you watch too many movies and been brainwashed by our wonderfulll bias media

        January 26, 2012 at 5:10 pm |
      • Bill

        Sorry Jean, but even if everything you claimed was 100% true, it doesn't mitigate our illegal support of the Shah and what he did to his people.

        With all due respect to you and Mr. Godwin, you can list all the wonderful things Mussolini did for Italy but, in the end, he still supported Hitler and therefore helped murder 6,000,000 people and will be remembered as a big jerk.

        January 26, 2012 at 5:39 pm |
      • Sean

        Woh, this is 100% wrong. You need to check the Google dude. Iran has been awarded by UN actually because of taking serious steps in lowering the child mortality. In stem cell research, Iran has a very advanced program while we are having issues in this country. Thank you sanction, Iran needs more of it, It is working.

        January 27, 2012 at 8:39 am |
      • wake up America

        jean ue an idiot and and blinded by the media ive been to iran and i can tell u that ur brained washed by the media to think so evil of other countries

        January 29, 2012 at 3:15 am |
    • bspurloc

      cuz not buying oil means people lose their jobs at Starbucks Iran

      January 26, 2012 at 12:00 pm | Reply
    • paul

      You are suggesting that the sanctions are against muslims? "damn those muslims" you say. The sanctions are against a 'state" that is threatening another state with extinction, funds and arms terrorism and vocally tells the world to F–k off. If you want to sing the PalestinianMuslim mantra: "woe is me, woe is me, everyone but us is the cause of our misery", go right ahead, but you are the one that is essentially blaming "muslims" for the actions of Iran.

      January 26, 2012 at 12:03 pm | Reply
      • John Smith

        Paul, the mantra you use is interesting: "woe is me, woe is me, everyone but us is the cause of our misery"...you label it as a "Palestinian Mantra", when in fact it is the mantra that the rest of the world views as belonging to Israel. Israel's policies have left it so reviled in the region that visitors to Israel (even American Jews) ask for their passport to not be stamped. This is a fact commonly known by all travelers to the region yet completely unaddressed by the Israel-biased and Israel-owned American media. Yes, indeed "woe is me, woe is me, everyone but us is the cause of our misery..."

        January 26, 2012 at 4:05 pm |
      • Bill

        Hey John, which policies would you be referring to that led to the 1948 invasion of Israel and attempted annihilation of the Jews?

        The same people that attribute the mantra to Israel are the ones spewing it for Palestinians.

        January 26, 2012 at 5:42 pm |
      • DAVID KAPLAN

        John Smith you are an outright liar. Where do you obtain your information? Neo-Nazi gatherings? Aryan Nations meetings? Maybe you could get a more reliable source than Mein Kampf.
        BTW, you can request that Israel not stamp your passport as it will not subsequently be accepted in hardly any Arab countries you may wish to travel to. Israelis have been understadning of this issue for decades and accomodates peoples' needs. It is not the total BS you made up.

        January 27, 2012 at 1:17 am |
    • paul

      juan cole is a notorious arab apologist hiding behind his tenured position at U of M. take his "informed comments" with a grain of salt.

      January 26, 2012 at 12:08 pm | Reply
    • Dukenuke

      Yeah... I don't understand why we (the US) has not already nuked all of the middle east. I'm sick and tired of hearing about them. Lets send over a few ICBMs to blow every one of those countries off the map, and finally be done with all of this crap.

      January 26, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Reply
      • Professor Hubert J Farnsworth

        Yes. We should kill millions of innocent men, women and children just to wipe out the bad apples in Iran.

        January 26, 2012 at 2:30 pm |
      • John K

        Because we're not inherently evil?

        January 26, 2012 at 3:58 pm |
      • Dukenuke's Dad

        Damnit son what did I tell you about staying up and commenting on political opinion pieces. Some day when you're older you'll understand why what you just said is fcking stupid, but for now go to your room. You're grounded. Grown folks are talking so stay quiet.

        January 26, 2012 at 9:26 pm |
    • cigarman

      Good, and correct.

      January 26, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Reply
    • jim

      every day i pray thease but wipes start with us after all thease ied s they sent into afganastan to blow our boys up its big time pay back time the only good iranian is a dead one!

      January 26, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Reply
      • Roger

        Really? What did Iran have to do with homemade IEDs being placed in Afghanistan? And I'm not even going to comment on your spelling and grammar

        January 26, 2012 at 4:56 pm |
    • Ghamarkhanoom

      What ever happened to the dude that was arrested for attempt to assassinate the Sudi Arabean pretty boy?
      Was it all set up? following killing of Iranian scientist etc...shomthing is shmelly and it aint me!

      January 27, 2012 at 3:09 pm | Reply
  2. Lee

    World Bank has predicted that Iran Economy will grow despite imposing sanctions on its Energy sectors . Where this news in your article ? .You have done a good job through which you can wash American people 's brain . This explanation is worthy of being read for your brainwashed followers .

    January 24, 2012 at 12:50 pm | Reply
    • Jean

      Lee: the world bank predicted exactly the opposite. the Iranian Rial has been falling for five years and is worth 1/2 of what it was to the dollar and Euro last year

      January 26, 2012 at 11:05 am | Reply
  3. secrets from iraq urgent

    عاجل .. عاجل .. وخطير للغاية – توجيهات رئيس الوزراء نوري المالكي للاجتماع الخاص بالقادة الأمنيين الذي عقد في مقر حزب الدعوة / محافظة ديالى

    شبكة المنصور
    هدهد سليمان

    أرسل ( الأسد السائح ) لهدهد سليمان محضر الاجتماع الذي كان حاضرا فيه والخاص بالقادة الأمنيين وبعض شيوخ العشائر , والمنعقد بتاريخ ( 18 / 12 / 2011 م ) في مقر حزب الدعوة في محافظة ديالى والذي ينص على ما يلي :

    محضر اجتماع القادة الأمنيين لمحافظة ديالى في مقر حزب الدعوة :

    1. تم عقد الاجتماع الخاص بالقادة الأمنيين في مقر حزب الدعوة /محافظة ديالى بتاريخ ( 18/12/ 2011م ) وقد حضره كل من :-

    أ. قائد شرطة ديالى

    ب. قائد عمليات ديالى

    ج. قائد الفرقة الخامسة

    هـ. عدد من آمري الألوية والوحدات في الفرقة الخامسة

    و. السيد صادق الحسيني ( نائب رئيس مجلس محافظة ديالى )

    س. مدير الشؤون في ديالى

    ح. مدير الوكالة الوطنية ( العميد غانم )

    ط. مدير مكافحة الإرهاب ( العميد فاروق )

    ي. مدير الجرائم في ديالى

    ك. مدير مرور ديالى

    ل. رئيس مجلس إسناد ديالى

    م. شيوخ عشائر ديالى وهم كل من :-

    أولا . الشيخ بلاسم حميد ملا جواد التميمي

    ثانيا. الشيخ رعد حميد ملا جواد التميمي

    ثالثا . الشيخ مازن حميد ملا جواد التميمي

    رابعا. الشيخ برهان الضاحي

    خامسا . الشيخ حميد ألشمري

    سادسا. الشيخ سعود احد شيوخ عشائر (بني طي )

    سابعا . عدد من المختارين في ديالى

    2. في بداية الاجتماع رحب مسؤول الجلسة السيد ( مثنى التميمي ) بالسادة الحضور وأشاد بمواقفهم الشجاعة في مقارعتهم فلول البعثيين والصدامين في ديالى والطائفيين في حكومة ديالى وفلول القاعدة , ثم قرأ توجيهات دولة السيد رئيس الوزراء نوري المالكي مسؤول جناح حزب الدعوة في العراق التي تنص على ما يلي :

    ( إخواني أرى فيكم عيون الأرامل والمفجوعات واليتامى والبيوت المهدمة والحسينيات المهدمة في بعقوبة واقضيتها ونواحيها وقد علمت من إخواني بان هنالك مناطق في ديالى لن تصلها مجالس العزاء لأبي الأحرار الحسين (سلام الله عليه ) وقد وجهت المسؤولين الأمنيين بوضع في كل بيت من بيوت ديالى راية من رايات الحسين ومتابعة من يعبث بها ) , واليكم أهم توجيهات دولة رئيس الوزراء نوري المالكي :-

    (1) زيادة المراكز الأمنية في كل مناطق بعقوبة واقضيتها ونواحيها وخاصة المناطق التي توجد فيها شيعة قليلون .

    (2) أمر سيادته بتفعيل جميع مذكرات القبض بحق المطلوبين من البعثيين وشيوخ العشائر المطلوبين امنيا" وقضائيا" وكل الجرائم .

    (3) أمر بمتابعة الخارجين من السجون الأمريكية وإلقاء القبض عليهم وإعادتهم إلى السجون .

    (4) متابعة البعثيين من المدنيين والعسكريين المتقاعدين وأصحاب النفوذ في المحافظة ومحاصرتهم وسجنهم أو إجبارهم للخروج خارج العراق .

    (5) إعطاء مبالغ مجزية للمخبرين السريين وعيوننا في كافة مناطق محافظة ديالى .

    (6) اجعلوا النقاط الأمنية بالقرب من المخبرين السريين والمختارين المواليين للعملية السياسية .

    (7) على الأجهزة الأمنية أن تلبي جميع شكاوى الشيعة فورا .

    (8) السماح بتسليح البيوت الشيعية وأي شخص قادر على حمل السلاح وإعطائهم إجازة فورا" .

    (9) تفعيل العمل ألاستخباري وهذا الكلام موجه إلى (العميد غانم) اذ عليه واجب العمل بكل الوسائل لجلب العناصر المرتبطة بحزب البعث والقاعد ومتابعتهم يوميا" ويجب إرسال موقف يومي إلى مكتب القائد العام للقوات المسلحة.

    (10) تبديل المختارين الذين لا يأتون بمعلومات عن البعثين والصدامين والقاعدة وإذا اضطر الأمر تهديدهم باسم القاعدة .

    (11) الإكثار من التحري والمداهمات من قبل كل الأجهزة الأمنية والاستخبارية وخاصة في المناطق ذات الكثافة السنية .

    (12) التظاهر في المداهمات بان تشمل كل فئات الشعب في الظاهر ولكن لا تشمل المكون الشيعي في المناطق السنية .

    (13) متابعة العسكريين من الضباط في الجيش والشرطة من الذين ليس لهم ولائهم للحكومة إما عزلهم أو إحالتهم إلى المحاكم أو نقلهم إلى خارج محافظة ديالى .

    (14) متابعة أعضاء مجلس محافظة ديالى والمحافظ ونوابه وتفعيل كل مذكرات إلقاء القبض .

    (15) الفدرالية خط احمر بالنسبة للحكومة ولا نقبل بها مهما كلف الأمر وسوف نرسل لكم التوجيهات والتعليمات المستقبلية بصدد ذلك، وسيتم استدعاء كل المسؤولين الأمنيين إلى بغداد حول ذلك .

    (16) توزيع مبلغ قدره (15) خمسة عشر مليون دينار لكل شخص يقوم بمجلس عزاء الحسين وخاصة في المناطق السنية وحمايتهم من البعثيين والصدامين والقاعدة وتخصص نقاط أمنية بالقرب من مجالس العزاء .

    (17) استخدام العنصر النسوي في الحصول على معلومات عن البعثيين والصدامين والعناصر المؤثرة في شارع ديالى .

    (18) استخدام كاميرات الموبايل أو التسجيلات حول ما يدور من كلام في المقاهي والجلسات الخاصة حتى لو اقتضى الأمر الإغراء بالنساء في سبيل الحصول على المعلومات .

    (19) استخدام (الشرطيات) في العلاقات الجنسية مع الضباط المتقاعدين وشيوخ العشائر وكذلك البعثيين للحصول على المعلومات حول آماكن تواجد العناصر الإرهابية ومكان اجتماعات البعثيين في ديالى .

    (20) لدينا معلومات مؤكدة بان هناك اجتماعات بعثية وصداميه مستمرة وتم إلقاء القبض على بعض القيادات المدنية في ديالى وقد اعترفوا بنشاط البعث في ديالى وسوف نتابعهم أينما كانوا وفي أي وقت وهم تحت المراقبة .

    (21) توجيه كافة أصحاب الأموال في ديالى والمحافظات الأخرى بشراء العقارات والعمارات والبيوت ومن المكون الشيعي لكسر الذريعة لدى المكون السني في ديالى وهذا يجب أن يتم بأسرع وقت ممكن .

    (22) توجيه كافة التجار وخاصة من المكون الشيعي بالسيطرة على كافة التجارة في ديالى من المواد المستوردة والمصدرة ووضع العقبات أمام التجار من المكون السني وتوجيه التهم إليهم بالإرهاب أو مساعدة الإرهاب .

    (23) على دائرة تسجيل العقاري في محافظة ديالى القيام بتوزيع قطع أراضي إلى المتضررين الشيعة وشمولهم بالقروض والمنح فورا" .

    (24) توجيه كافة الأجهزة الأمنية في ديالى والحكومية وشيوخ العشائر الموالية ألينا وكذلك الوقف الشيعي ببناء حسينيات مقابل كل جامع من المكون الثاني ووضع نقاط أمنية بالقرب منها , وهذه مهمة جدا" وعلى الوقف الشيعي (المرجعية ) العمل به فورا".

    (25) الإكثار من السلع الإيرانية في ديالى والبيع بأرخص الأثمان .

    (26) إيصال الوقود إلى العوائل الشيعية والمواكب الحسينية بأسرع وقت .

    (27) تبليغ كافة الأجهزة الأمنية والحكومية والمختارين بتدقيق كافة العوائل المهجرة وبيان أسباب التهجير.

    (28) كل شخص سواء" كان عسكري أو شرطة أو مدني عليه القيام بعلاقات جيدة جدا مع أشخاص المكون السني من خلال تسهيل أمورهم الإدارية لدى دوائر الدولة وتبليغ كافة المسؤولين حول ذلك ومن بعد كسبهم إلى حزب الدعوة حتى لو اقتضى الأمر تعيينهم في أجهزة الشرطة أو الجيش آو أي وظيفة مدنية .

    (29) على كافة القادة الأمنيين من ضباط الجيش أو الشرطة أو الأجهزة الأمنية التحرك على الضباط والجنود من الجيش والشرطة للمكون السني وتشجيعهم إلى الانتماء لحزب الدعوة وفي حالة رفضهم يتم إما إقصائهم أو توجيه بعض التهم الإرهابية لهم وهذا من أهم الأمور المهمة في المرحلة المقبلة .

    (30) هذه الأمور التي تم طرحها في هذا الاجتماع سوف يتم متابعة تنفيذها من قبل كافة تنظيمات الائتلاف الوطني في ديالى وكذلك مكتب رئيس الوزراء وفي حالة تلكأ أي جهة سوف يتم محاسبة الجهة المقصرة فورا".

    (31) أكد الحاضرون بأنهم سوف يكونون العين الساهرة في ديالى لنصرة الأقلية المظلومة من المكون الشيعي وسوف نبسط الأمن بكل الوسائل المتاحة وإننا إنشاء الله قادرون على تنفيذ ما يطلبه دولة رئيس الوزراء الدكتور نوري المالكي ولا نسمح للبعثيين والصداميين والقاعدة من العبث بأمن ديالى وترويع أهلها فنحن قادرون على تنفيذ كل هذه المطالب بأسرع وقت .

    (32) المعوقات التي يعاني منها حزب الدعوة في ديالى فهي :-

    أ – صعوبة الحصول على مذكرات الاعتقال من قبل بعض القضاة بحق بعض الناس .

    ب – كثير من المعلومات تصل إلى الشخص المطلوب قبل إلقاء القبض عليه .

    ج – كثرة التوسط على المجرمين والموقوفين من بعض الضباط والشيوخ السنة مما يدفعهم على دفع أموال لإخراجهم من السجن .

    د – تم رفع أسماء بعض الضباط والمراتب من الجيش والشرطة لغرض نقلهم أو إقصائهم أو إحالتهم إلى القضاء من المكون السني ومضى فترة طويلة على ذلك دون إجابة .

    هـ – يجب زيادة عدد الشرطة في ديالى وكذلك الأجهزة الأمنية لغرض ضبط الشارع في ديالى .

    هذا وقد شكر مسؤول الجلسة ( مثنى التميمي ) جميع الحاضرين متمنيا" لهم الموفقية في عملهم داخل هذه المحافظة الملتهبة والتي عبث فيها الإرهاب ودمر بناها التحتية .

    للعلم رجاءا .. مع تحيات هدهد سليمان من قلب المنطقة الخضراء .

    January 24, 2012 at 5:02 pm | Reply
    • rick

      you made 32 points that only you and your friends can understand. did you post this in english on an arab website?

      January 26, 2012 at 12:14 pm | Reply
    • Coriolana

      Talking to yourself I see

      January 26, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Reply
    • Keane

      Can't help but be just a bit curious ....

      January 26, 2012 at 12:45 pm | Reply
      • matt

        Just use google translate it takes three seconds.

        January 26, 2012 at 1:39 pm |
  4. 66Biker

    Iran needs to be put in it's place, as it were. But as far as I am concerned, I bought a fuel efficient car back in 2005. I also bought a new bicycle that same year. I didn't use either one all that much at first, but as of 2008 I have put a little less than 10,000 miles on the car and a little less than 14,000 miles on the bicycle. I use the car to go to the grocery store and take family members to Doctor's appointments, etc., and the bicycle for everything else.

    January 26, 2012 at 10:26 am | Reply
  5. Hasan

    Why not send the same special forces that eliminated Osama to eliminate the Dictators of Iran including Suprem Killer Khamanei and Ahmadinejad, so we can have a democratic law abiding society again in Iran

    January 26, 2012 at 10:35 am | Reply
    • Pleth

      Iran's President has about 100,000 times the security force that Osama had in Pakistan. Seal Team 6 landed at a small compound about the size of a small ranch in Utah and had to fight about 20 armed men to get to their target. This would be the equivalent of raiding a pre-school and taking a kids candy to breaking into Fort Knox and stealing the gold.

      January 26, 2012 at 10:48 am | Reply
    • Jack 63

      The US does not target the leaders of other countries for assasination

      January 26, 2012 at 11:45 am | Reply
      • cigarman

        Right. Ha Ha

        January 26, 2012 at 4:12 pm |
    • bspurloc

      We love to interfere with Irans leaders I mean the present ones are there cuz of the previous ones we placed...
      for real though.... apparently bush the mo ron invaded the wrong country eh.....

      January 26, 2012 at 12:02 pm | Reply
    • Kevinexcess

      Hasan,lWhy not send those assasins form Israel to kill the leaders in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, for trying to keep the price of oil high in order to shout up their citizens. Seriously, do you read?

      January 26, 2012 at 1:04 pm | Reply
    • Frank Heydenreich

      State sponsored killing is a criminal act. full stop. I disagree strongly any goverment to carry out those killing. This is definitively a sign of interlectual weakness.

      January 27, 2012 at 9:45 am | Reply
  6. patty

    the war between the Shiite and the Sunis is really what is going on. The Sunis are good people but the Shiites are radical and their philosophy is there must be a war between the East and the West through which the East will rise and usher in the era of the 12th imam. Ahmadinejad has been very bold to declare his purposes for life are to destroy Israel and all the enemies of his religion. He has publically declared his desire to wipe Israel off the map even during UN addresses. The nuclear bomb is his tool for that. It is no secret. All the nations know what the leaders of Iran want to do. Their religion is dangerous and there is no reason for them not to do it. They believe that when they kill the enemies of Islam they are going to Heaven. They tell our own soldiers they will kill just to go to Heaven. So if they believe they are going to Heaven to be with Allah when they kill and destroy, nuclear bombs only make it easier and quicker for them to accomplish their goals.

    January 26, 2012 at 10:54 am | Reply
    • bspurloc

      that is IRAQ not IRAN..... learn your regions and why bush should not have removed saddam whom was keeping this violence under control.... oh never mind keep spreading the ignorance...... we 'HELP' iraq now they should get what we unleashed under control not our problem eh?

      January 26, 2012 at 12:04 pm | Reply
    • Kevinexcess

      Patty,
      Your ignorant and hate filled rant is more of a danger to world peace. Seriously, your crazy...

      January 26, 2012 at 1:16 pm | Reply
      • DAVID KAPLAN

        Patty is absolutely correct, if not phrased as professionally as possible. It is YOU who are of very questionable mental state. Either that or you have been paying absolutely no attentio to what the Iranian leadership says and does. Must we lay the proof at your doorstep a mile high to convince you?

        January 27, 2012 at 1:26 am |
    • Sean

      So Israel is killing and forcing Palestinians out of their home is because they are Sunni , they are weak, nonone is hearing their voices so they are good. Israel kicked out of Lebanon because of Hezbollah, because they are Shiia. So the Sunni are good and the Shiia are bad, hmmmmm interesting. You don't know anything about Islam.

      January 27, 2012 at 8:53 am | Reply
  7. justice766

    It is about time the europeans have some guts to squeeze Iran. Those mullahs who live on our tax money and bully and threaten the region with our tax money should be put in their place where they belong back to the stone age. lets see how long they can last without the dollar that they pretend to hate. may be even before that Israel will obliterate their nuclear program forever !

    January 26, 2012 at 11:55 am | Reply
  8. Joe

    I think the only way to establish a world out of trouble is to remove Iranian regime by anyway, and a democratic replacement
    by people.

    January 26, 2012 at 12:04 pm | Reply
    • bspurloc

      like their previous one right? oh wait we only live by today not yesterday

      January 26, 2012 at 12:06 pm | Reply
  9. Joe

    Get rid of stupid leaders in Iran will solve the world problem.

    January 26, 2012 at 12:05 pm | Reply
  10. Coriolana

    I don't believe that is geologically possible. But if successfull, it would make a lot of work for globe and mapmakers.

    January 26, 2012 at 12:24 pm | Reply
  11. Chris

    Do you really think the Iranian government cares one whit about economic sanctions from Europe? They barely care about their own people who are soon to be jobless and angry with other countries for their situation. I think that's actually going to cause the general population to support Iran's push towards nukes if they aren't already just so they can have a fighting chance. You want to stop terrorism? Stop being terrorists yourself.

    January 26, 2012 at 1:08 pm | Reply
  12. Heinz

    Woohoo...More and cheaper oil for China. I can't wait to move there 😀

    January 26, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Reply
  13. svann

    Ahh I see now. We need to drill more domestic oil so the world can afford to stop buying from Iran. That makes so much more sense now.

    January 26, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Reply
  14. indyjim

    The best hope for Iran is the 75 percent of its population under the age of 35 who hope for a very different life than the ones the unelected mullahs hiding behind closed doors would have for them.

    i wish those people the best of luck! Who would have thought one year ago Mubarek would be on trial and Khadaffy beaten and killed in the streets of Libya after hiding in a sewer pipe?

    power to the people!

    January 26, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Reply
  15. That Dude

    The author of this article is stupid. You never been to Iran, You don't know there culture, You do not know their religion and you do not know it's people. However, we have this stupid author writing articles on other people society that he know's nothing about.

    This is what CNN call hire learning.

    January 26, 2012 at 2:17 pm | Reply
    • Dukenuke

      Don't want to go to Iran, don't care about their culture, and really just want them GONE. Any country who can't be part of the global community at this point should be vaporized, colonized by civilized humans, and THEN given our support.

      January 26, 2012 at 2:31 pm | Reply
    • Blessed Geek

      This dud is ... well ... a dud. The article is about Europe and their actions against Iran. Not having read the article, perhaps lacking the ability to read the length of the articel, the dud deud is firing all over the place but the target.

      Most probably the dud deud is an Iranian govt crony who lacks comprehension skills in English.

      January 26, 2012 at 10:55 pm | Reply
  16. Dukenuke

    Instead of wasting another 10 years in a war, which is where this seems to be going, PLEASE just nuke them... Obama, send in the missiles! Seriously, the middle east has done nothing but produce headaches, pain, and death for the rest of the world. Its time to stop wasting OUR resources trying to bring them into this century, and just be done with it. Blow them all off of the map, wait for the dust to settle, and then we can do what we need with the energy resources they hold as ransom over the rest of the world.

    January 26, 2012 at 2:24 pm | Reply
    • Sam

      Aren't you going to be in trouble, skipping your Grade 3 class this morning and all?

      January 26, 2012 at 2:30 pm | Reply
      • Dukenuke

        LOL – Yes, because only a 3rd grader would want the middle east destroyed? Take a poll, im not in the minority.

        January 26, 2012 at 2:32 pm |
      • John K

        "only a 3rd grader would want the middle east destroyed?"

        Thinking... yes. Either a 3rd grader, a sociopath, or a troll.

        January 26, 2012 at 4:02 pm |
  17. Sam

    Iran has a very young and highly educated workforce, not to mention they have buyers of their oil who will never be affected by anything that the US and it's puppets try to impose. The only fundamental change these illegal sanctions will create is great animosity of the Iranian public towards these countries, essentially shoring up more support for Ahmadinejad. And to top it all off, they are not retaliating to any of the assassination attempts, assassinations of their civilian scientists, nor the illegal sanctions. The country is basically, winning. Anyone with half a brain realizes this.

    January 26, 2012 at 2:29 pm | Reply
    • Dukenuke

      Its sickening how many of you tree-hugging diplomats there are. We have a bug on our window, time to hit it with a fly swatter.

      January 26, 2012 at 2:39 pm | Reply
      • John Smith

        Oh, if only a fly swatter could take care of problem children such as you (and your ilk)...

        January 26, 2012 at 4:46 pm |
    • Ian

      So many American warmongers here today. I guess with pulling out of Iraq and leaving it in shambles, they now need another country to invade? God i can't wait till China is king of the hill.

      January 26, 2012 at 2:55 pm | Reply
    • DAVID KAPLAN

      Well, anyone who posts this sort of drivel deserves to be asked if they are an Iranian agent. Well, are you, "Sam"?

      January 27, 2012 at 1:30 am | Reply
  18. Badger

    Let's see the Irianian navy attempt to challenge any U. S warship. One MIRV fired from a Trident SSBN will turn Iran into a sheet of glass...

    January 26, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Reply
  19. IndiaRocks

    I'm sick of the hypocritical and biased American media's attempts to malign Iran as an "evil terrorist country". After all Iran hasn't attacked any other country for hundreds of years and there is no proof that it is going to in the future. On the other hand, almost all wars in recent history have been initiated by the US and her allies. If any country deserves the tag of an "evil terrorist country", it is the US. And as far as Iran acquiring nukes is concerned, every country has the right to acquire nukes and Iran is no exception. Go Iran!

    January 26, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Reply
    • ak

      I saw the same comment else where...you are not an Indian...but a Pakistani for sure!

      January 26, 2012 at 3:09 pm | Reply
      • IndiaRocks

        @ak: You think I'm Pakistani because I hate the U.S.? Newsflash: The WHOLE WORLD hates Americans. Clinton got a first-hand experience of that hate from the rotten-egg-throwing Filipinos the other day.

        January 26, 2012 at 3:16 pm |
      • D Meyer

        Iraq September 1980

        January 26, 2012 at 7:56 pm |
  20. Total non Sense

    a world wide boycott of ALL Iran oil. Hermeticly seal Iran, nothign in/out. Cut all extermnal access, scrammble comm. completly isolate the country. as soon as somthng try to in.out it get vaporize instantly. Nuke/destroy all of tiran military/nukecler installation. Detroy every who work for the goverment, KILL the president. Iran as will *ALL* Islamic country must be destroyed.

    January 26, 2012 at 3:20 pm | Reply
    • IndiaRocks

      Not gonna happen. Iran's largest oil importers are China, India and Russia which will never stop buying Iran's oil. And since most of Iran's oil revenue come from these countries, Iran can tell Europe to f%#k off.

      January 26, 2012 at 3:30 pm | Reply
    • Ian

      India, you're right, but i think he was being sarcastic.

      January 26, 2012 at 4:08 pm | Reply
  21. momo0828

    Here is an idea. Remove the sanctions and let them develop their nuclear weapons if they choose to do so. Then simply surround them with nukes and dare them to press their nuke button. We will spend more money trying to prevent them from building nuclear weapon as opposed to letting them build one then defend against the threat of nuclear eradication. While Iran may suffer as result of the sanction, they know that they possess a resource that is needed by other countries and their economies and I am sure the Iranian government knows this to be true. So all they have to do is sit back and wait for Europe to blink.

    January 26, 2012 at 3:41 pm | Reply
    • John Smith

      Finally somebody with a brain and an idea! Very refreshing. I've met several Iranians, and here's what I've seen: they're pretty materialistic (love their Mercedes and Gucci sunglasses and McMansions), they love (I mean love) to party, and almost all of them are doctors or lawyers or engineers. The average Iranian is a whole different breed from the mullahs running the country, and they're definitely a different breed from most of their surrounding Arab neighbors. Until we get this, we will not know how to properly deal with them, and we will end up shooting ourselves in the foot – again.

      January 26, 2012 at 4:52 pm | Reply
  22. faye-moghtader

    the fact is that us has failed to pursue the diplomatic channels,when they had ample opprtunity to do so,when khatami moderate was the president,bush failed and they use all kinds of coditions to not take this route.unfortunately the war hawks are bulliying obama into another style iraq war.
    we need to start another war,to create more millionairs thru these military industrial complex.

    January 26, 2012 at 3:54 pm | Reply
  23. rad666

    Others think that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is still primitive and that allegations that Iran is seeking a nuclear warhead are hype. --– Not any more than baby Bush talking about WMDs in Iran.

    January 26, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Reply
  24. woodrow

    Iran can do anything they want provided they can get away with it. And they will suffer how they choose. We must assume they choose to suffer if they don't choose to negotiate.

    January 26, 2012 at 5:06 pm | Reply
    • Indian

      Wrong! Iran will bring down US & EU! Nothing will happen to Iran. The sanctions will actually cause backfire and may actually help Iran. India, China, Russia will buy Iran's oil in GOLD instead of dollars, thanks to the sanctions. And which countries are known for their gold? Hint: Most of them in Asia. And once Iran's oil is bought in Gold, we all know what's going to happen to the US $$$$$- bye bye US! We're masters in playing chess, espcially since we invented it. US/EU keeps on shooting their own foot

      January 26, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Reply
      • Deryk Houston

        Iran is right on this issue. Israel and the US will not allow them the right to process their own fuel and this is the crux of the whole problem because they have ever right under the treaty that they signed to do that. You can;t stop a country when it is their right to do so. The west should have taken the offer from Iran to exchange it's fuel on Iranian territory and it didn't take that offer which proved to the world that the west is not playing fair. Now they have boxed themselves into the corner and look like fools. Can you imagine....the idiots in Europe think that cutting themselves off of oil from Iran is good at a time when they are having enough problems on their plate. Iran should cut off oil supplies immediately to Europe.

        January 26, 2012 at 9:20 pm |
      • TnScholar

        Indian you presented a decent argument in regarding to Iran's oil being purchased in "gold." Then believing using gold as the currenancy will bring down the US/Europe. What you fail to mention or simply not realize is that 2/3's of the worlds gold reserves are in America. And America still has plenty of areas to be mined. As well as, America just discovered that they have an adundance of oil reserves which were subsequently found in Colorada, North and South Dakoda, Montana. Effective as of 01/26/12, America is allowing bids per acrer in the Gulf of Mexico floor to drill for one billion barrels of oil and even more for the natural gas reserves. In fact, America has the largest "Natural Gas Reserves" in the world and this is still an untapped market.

        Also, there is sort of a basic economic secret . Which is purchase the resources from others while it's affordable. And when the price is too expensive or foreign resources are past it's peaks. Then you tap into your own resources that' hasn't been used. And that is exactly what America is doing with it's natural resources. Sorry to disappoint the people who are simply jealous of America and how quick it came to be a power for such a young country. But, America isnt attempting to do anything new. It is simply learned from the great nations of history and copying how they remained in power. Though America is having economic troubles. It's been faced with this back in the late 20's, then again in the late 70's to the mid 80's and other times too. Everytime, America has rebounded and overcame and came out in the end even stronger. Therefore people who believe America is on the downward slide and losing it's power, sorry to disappoint you but that isn't going to occur. America is well aware that as long as it keeps a strong military and continue to be innovative it's economy will always rebound back for the better. Hence America will maintain it's status as the super power of the world. If anything, America is brilliant at letting mis-information go out to world to ensure that the other nations believe that America is weakening. Look to history to get a good indication of how the future will be in this regard. Of all histories great world leaders for their time span. Not one has ever fallen in a rapid descend as the world believes America is currently doing. Of course nothing last forever and all great nations will fall for another to arise and takes it's place. But all these nations always too a century to fall. And America is no different. America came to power so rapidly due to being an astute student of history. And no I am not an American,

        January 27, 2012 at 12:50 am |
  25. andy

    This is not a war between Iran and U.S, since only one group of people are pushing for another war, I am talking about the same group that owns our Media and banking system.

    January 26, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Reply
    • TnScholar

      Andy you are definitely limited in your critical and abstract thinking. The media is owned by people who hold stock in these publicly trade media companies. In fact, Fox news media is owned by Ruppert Murdock but the second highest stock holder is a Saudi Arabia prince. The banks are also publicly traded companies too and the jews or Israelis arent the majority stock holders. 90% of the major public companies CEO's arent even jewish or Israeli. Therefore, I suggest before you open your limited mind to becoming speech. You might want to do some research. It's better to be preceived as a fool, opposed to opening your mouth and proving you're a fool.

      January 27, 2012 at 12:59 am | Reply
      • ohsleepyme

        I like you!

        January 27, 2012 at 9:35 pm |
  26. That Dude

    Juan Cole - you are so stupid, you do not know what you are talking about. You never traveled to Iran and you never traveled anywhere in the middle east. You are so stupid. You knowing about the persian language, society or culture. Furthermore, you do not know anything about economics. Juan Cole, you do not know any about start any kind of basic business. Nevertheless, you want to right articles on other people economics. Very stupid man.

    January 26, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Reply
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