February 2nd, 2012
12:00 PM ET

Iran will strike back

Editor’s Note: Geneive Abdo is the director of the Iran program at The Century Foundation. Reza H. Akbari is a research associate for the program.

By Geneive Abdo and Reza H. Akbari – Special to CNN

Will Iran retaliate if attacked? Israeli intelligence officials and neo-conservative pundits in the United States argue that Iran is bluffing – that it wouldn’t dare.

But on Tuesday, U.S. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. powerfully rebutted this view. Clapper argued not only that Iran would retaliate, but that some Iranian officials are now even willing to carry out attacks on U.S. soil.

In his unclassified statement submitted to the U.S. Senate’s Select Committee on Intelligence, Clapper said: “Iran’s willingness to sponsor future attacks in the United States or against our interests abroad probably will be shaped by Tehran’s evaluation of the costs it bears for the plot…as well as Iranian leader’s perception of U.S. threats against the regime.”

The issue of survival is not taken lightly by the Iranian military and political establishments. According to an article published by the Guardian, an Iranian idiom is quite popular among military officials, “If we drown, we'll drown everyone with us.” The Iranian regime is prepared to fight until the end.

Many foreign leaders, such as France’s Nicholas Sarkozy are also very worried about the implications of a potential military conflict with Iran. As reported by the German publication Spiegel, during his New Year’s address to diplomats in Paris, Sarkozy stated, “A military intervention [in Iran] would not solve the problem [of Iran's nuclear program], but would trigger war and chaos in the Middle East and maybe the world.

Such conclusions are far more realistic than that of a retired Israeli official who told the New York Times: “I am not saying Iran will not react. But it will be nothing like London during World War II.”

In the eyes of the Iranian regime, this is a fight for survival far more threatening than the domestic challenge presented by the protest movement of millions of Iranian demonstrators in 2009.

The recent pronouncements from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials should be taken seriously.  In November, Khamenei said: "Iran is not a nation to sit still and just observe threats from fragile materialist powers which are being eaten by worms from inside.

“Anyone who harbors any thought of invading the Islamic Republic of Iran - or even if the thought crosses their mind - should be prepared to receive strong blows and the steel fists of the military, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, and the Basij, backed by the entire Iranian nation," he said.

Is he bluffing? There is no way to know for sure, but are Israel and the United States willing to accept the potential risks?

There are a number of political, economic, and military retaliatory moves Iran is perfectly capable of and willing to carry out in the short and long-term.

– According to Clapper’s Worldwide Threat Assessment, “Iran already has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, and it is expanding the scale, reach, and sophistication of its ballistic missile forces.” Iran can use its missile abilities to strike Israel.

– Some might make the argument that Iran’s military capabilities are not on par with Israel or the United States. It does not matter. Even if Israel succeeds in short-term air strikes, Iran is willing and able to cause and promote instability in the region. This is in direct contradiction with the United States’ broad interest in the Middle East, which is stability.

– Iran may not be able to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely, but even threats and potential attempts will cause volatility in the Persian Gulf.

Some point to recent history and argue that Iran has never launched a large-scale retaliatory attack. But times have changed, and Iran’s position has shifted. Iran is now preparing for an attack on its soil, and part of this strategy includes an effective second strike.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of Geneive Abdo and Reza H. Akbari.

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Topics: Intelligence • Iran • Israel • Middle East • Military • United States

soundoff (220 Responses)
  1. Michael Chapel Hill

    I would not bet on Iran. The Muslim world was looking at Sadam Hussien as the only one who can challenge the US.
    Islamista were waiting to see US defeated. At the end Sadam cried out that he does not have andy nuclear bomb. It was too late. So is Iran. It is a bully. Everey other country allowed it to bully. If a full blown war happnes within weeks Iraninans will be riding on camels back. These pandits boost Iran. Have you ever seen a Muslim not supporting Iran?

    February 26, 2012 at 4:50 pm | Reply
  2. James Phifer

    E=MC2 you are telling a big lie about Hebrew history, first af all the Caananites were the first on that land which is called the Levant by its ancient name, they were displaced by the Hebrews who were just a wandering tribe of nomads in the desert as they have always have been since from Disapora from the Pharoahs to the Babylonian captivity. The Hebrew language was derived from the Caananites, who invented one of the first written language in the Lavant. From the days of Esau one of Abrahams sons it has been known that the original Hebrews were part Neanderthal mixed with modern humans , this has been confirmed by Anthropolgists and they have taken enormous steps to hide this fact, which is why you see such a large numbers of Jewish control of the media as you see today. Anti-semitism is a lie because only about 5% of jews are of original hebrew genetic stock, the rest were assimilated into European genetic stock during the Disapora in Europe. One of the main reasons why there was a mssive resistance to mixing their genes with Modern European genes was bacause of the fact that they were part Neanderthal. This is why this brought about a final solution in Germany. The Khazars which were white europeans from the russian steppes assimilated the larger mass of Hebrews in europe, who had wooly hair and dark skin and many of their traditions which are foreign to the original hebrew traditions like the torah and gelflite fish in a jar were broght to the middle east by the jewish disapora. The Jews are an invented people and all of you in the western wortld are about to pay a terrible price for taking such an indefensible position sidng with them. To support them at a time in history where it will become your undoing is Insane. History will record this fatal mistake and it will be written about for a thousand years of how a sole world superpower was brought down by this lie like what happened to Germany after World War I .

    February 26, 2012 at 4:58 pm | Reply
  3. hippy

    stop the violence

    March 2, 2012 at 3:19 pm | Reply
  4. SaneAmerican

    this is ridiculous. what county WOULDNT strike back if their people or sovereignty was attacked?!

    March 2, 2012 at 3:21 pm | Reply
  5. Eric

    Well my opinion is that Iran has not proven to us that theyre a stable nation or responsible enough to have Nuclear Power therefore are not ready for it, if we have to go their and do some damage than let it be! I dont care about Israel let them fight their own battles and back their own with their own people and money why should Americans pay and sponsor their war and problems were not Jewish!!!!!!! were Americans and we need to think of our own interest here in America.

    March 2, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Reply
  6. desert voice (troubledgoodangel or Nathanael or Bohdan or Voiceinthedesert)

    Wake up, Iran. We Europeans do not want your people to suffer. Overthrow the murderous Ayatollah. He is leading you to Armageddon! Do not allow him to plunge Iran into a deadly no-end alley war!

    March 3, 2012 at 2:52 am | Reply
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