Editor’s Note: The following piece, exclusive to GPS, comes from Wikistrat, the world's first massively multiplayer online consultancy. It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts via a crowd-sourcing methodology to provide unique insights.
It’s hard to gauge just how strong the Free Syrian Army really is. It’s clearly growing in size and in its ability to control ever-widening swaths of territory. But at the same time, Russian and Iranian guns pour into Bashar al-Assad’s government. And Bashar al-Assad has a steely will to power.
Given the mounting tension, it’s worth thinking through exactly how regime change may unfold and what it’s consequences would mean for the region.
Wikistrat, the world’s first massively multiplayer online consultancy ran an online simulation on what could go down in Syria. Here are the results:
1) A military coup ousts al-Assad but retains control
The military regime could hold on to power while dumping al-Assad. Iran would like this scenario. A militarized dictatorship in Syria would keep its supply lines open to Hezbollah and Hamas.
The renewed regime would have to enter into some pro forma negotiations with the Free Syrian Army and two competing opposition groups (the Syrian National Council and National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change).
The West would hope for a not-too-bloody handover to civilian rule, mimicking Egypt post-Mubarak. As for al-Assad, he’d probably take a bullet to the brain on this one.
2) Al-Assad holds on as figurehead while a transitional government is negotiated
This would be more to Moscow’s liking. Vladimir Putin has drawn his “redline” on swift regime change but probably could stand some drawn-out version, so long as his fellow dictator wasn’t given the bum’s rush . . . to the International Criminal Court.
Putin is feeling pretty touchy right now about how far north the whole “spring” dynamic might extend, plus he desperately wants to hold onto Russia’s naval basing rights in Syria - as decrepit as those port facilities are.
But since these are mostly “nice to have” outcomes that speak to global perceptions of Russia’s superpower decline, it’s hard to imagine Putin going to the mat on this one, meaning al-Assad should keep his bags packed.
3) Al-Assad’s regime yields to a transitional coalitional government
This is basically the Arab League’s plan, and - by extension - what the United Nations would prefer. Ideally, this is accomplished without any dragged-out civil war that might tempt outside powers to intervene militarily. Consider it a Libya-lite.
Because of the International Criminal Court’s reach, al-Assad would probably end up in some gorgeous “dacha” outside Moscow. The distracted West would love this outcome, as would any rival of Iran (the Turks and Saudis), but given Syria’s religious divisions, this would likely end up being a fairly unstable waypoint to something worse. Right now, al-Assad shows no signs of submitting, so the longer the current fighting goes on, the more likely we’re looking at some serious - and permanent - dissolution of Syria as a unitary state.
4) Syria descends into civil war
Besides al Qaeda, nobody really wants this. However, paradoxically, both Israel and Iran might find it a tolerable interlude before even worse outcomes. If Syria descends into civil war, it would immediately pull Hezbollah’s attention northward. From the Persians’ perspective, civil war would keep Tehran in the game and divert the bulk of global attention away from Iran’s continued push for nuclear weapons. One apple-cart unsettling possibility: Hezbollah might decide it must preemptively take over Lebanon in whole. That roll of the dice would likely distress Israel and delight Iran, because Hezbollah can pull it off.
5) Syria fractures internally but holds together as a fragile state
Call this the Iraq-2 scenario, which in general would favor Iran’s rivals, because the biggest “tribe” left standing would be the overwhelmingly majority Sunni, with the now-ruling-but-minority Alawis retreating to the mountains along Syria’s Mediterranean coast and the similarly small Kurdish population staking their own claim in the northwest.
The logical losers would be the suddenly orphaned Christian minority. Turkey naturally prefers to avoid yet another Kurdish state-within-a-state, but would probably swallow that in return for mentoring the newly dominant Sunni version. The Shia-dominated Baghdad government, and - by extension - Tehran, would be made nervous by Iraq’s restive Sunni minority suddenly having a new ally to the immediate west.
6) Syria effectively disappears and a new Sunni state arises to threaten Iraq’s territorial integrity
This low-probability path gets tricky, because it involves both Turkey and Saudi Arabia betting that they might be able to simultaneously dismember the Baghdad regime in a bid to create a Sunni buffer state that links up those populations currently “out of power” in both Syria and Iraq.
This would be akin to a Pashtunistan arising across the patently fake border that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan. Turkey is less incentivized to play this risky game, because a truly free Kurdistan might escape Baghdad’s grip in the process, inflaming Ankara’s long-standing Kurdish issue back home. So the driver here would have to be a Saudi kingdom so unnerved by Tehran’s long-term threat as to preemptively avail itself of this danger-filled opportunity.
7) Civil war is mercifully short, perhaps accelerated by a limited “Western” military intervention
This truly would be the Libya-2 scenario, with NATO getting virtually pulled in by Turkey’s decision to expand its current sanctuary zones for refugees and opposition fighters into Syria proper. This creeping “no-something-zone” logically segues into Ankara openly supporting the Free Syrian Army in a game-changing bid to end the conflict on decisively Turkish terms. And you know what? Turkey’s NATO partners, being otherwise occupied with their own internal fiscal crises, might just silently go along with that.
8) The second coming of the United Arab Republic!
Since we’ve spun up scenarios that represent best-possible wins for regional rivals Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, it only seems fair to broach one for a resurgent Egypt post-Mubarak. While members of Syria’s exiled chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood suffered mightily under the father-and-son al-Assad regimes, a network of uncertain strength still exists inside the country. Fast-forward to a post-al-Assad resurgence of its fortunes, and we could possibly be looking at Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Islamic republics in both Syria and Egypt, recalling the temporary union between the two states in the late 1950s under pan-Arabist leader Gamal Nasser.
9) Syria surprises everybody and ends up being the most democratic post-Spring Arab regime
This seems the least likely, but it’s not fantastically unlikely. After all, neighboring Lebanon pulled off a similar feat prior its mid-70s descent into madness, and Syria’s religious complexity is really no worse. But we feel like we’re running on fumes here, so let’s wrap it up on that hopeful note.
That’s our “wisdom from the crowd” for this week.
Now give us your preferred scenario in the comments section below. And be sure to check out more at Wikistrat.com, a cutting-edge global consultancy.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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How do you spell "Endgame" wrong...
Other Outcomes:
1.) Kim Kardashian gets pregnant by Assad..but marries Marco Polo for his money.
2.) Kim Kardashian gets pregnant by Mohammad the Shepherd...but she marries his brother.
3.) Kim gets pregnant by Fatima's husband Bosco...but marries Assad.
Uh-huh...dats right...dats da way I like it uh-huh...uh-huh.
Spot on! You should be ab analyst for CNN
Your mother got pregnant by a donkey and then you were born... HAHAHAHA
Also in the third paragraph: should be its not it's
It is correct the way it was mike, its shows possesion and it's is short for it is.
Syria may well become the most promising of the Spring revolutions if Sunnis can somehow tolerate the Alawites in a post Assad state, while embracing and protecting the Kurds, Christians, and other minorities. The real revolution will occur when the state security apparatus starts to crumble with defections and Assad & family flee the country. France might be a destination if ICC issues can be worked out. If Turkey supports this outcome, it could happen.
What freightens me here is watching Bashar al-Assad being replaced by some pro-Western stooge willing to sell out to the West like all these other Muslim aristocrats did!!!
agreed but i think that syria will just end up in a civil war with some but little military intervention and they will form a (hopefully) more democratic gov. Remember this isnt a struggle between sunni or alawites or shia or christians. The majority of ppl hate the gov and there are also some from each group that agree, this is a struggle between the syrian gov and the syrian ppl. Ppl always have the wrong idea of whats happening and this is an ex. We all hope Bashar steps down (maybe with a few bullets in the head) and we should be united rather than blame other groups. The more united a gov/ppl are the better the country. (and 4 ppl who think that syria will become a new country then u should stop thinking of the hunger games bc the ppl of syria will never let that happen)
How bout we all just mind our own business and take care of our own. What we are born into dictates our fate, if i was born in the middle east i would most likely be muslim, get it? This drive of people to control others is what will be our end, how bout we just off those people and move on, maybe then we can live in peace.
If the Assad regime can be overthrown and a TRUE Muslim state is create (Under Sharia Law) then peace is easily attainable. As Sharia obligates Muslims to protect Christians and Jews, promote justice, and diminishes corruption. The corruptions comes when countries intervene. As when the West supported Mubarak, Saddam; Iran supporting Assad. Other countries need to stay out and just let the Muslims rule themselves.
Without meaning to sound ignorant or sarcastic...why aren't the same people who helped in Lybia helping in Syria? What is the difference in these 2 countries?
For one thing, Libya has far more oil than Syria does. Don't worry, the right-wing thugs in Washington are seeking a way to take over Syria, too!
The problem with Syria, is that unlike Lybia,Syria is a major player in the middle east. Western countries did somewhat have good relations with Syria unlike they have with Iran. Also unlike Iran, Syria doesn't want the destruction of Isreal. Not that Syria's millatary would be any threat to Israel lol
How clever!...how nice of you to ignore that it was party of 'left-wingers' in power during the foreign involvement in Libya.
The problem with Syria, is that unlike Lybia,Syria is a major player in the middle east. Western countries did somewhat have good relations with Syria unlike they have with Iran. Also unlike Iran, Syria doesn't want the destruction of Isreal. Not that Syria's millatary would be any threat to Israel
The problem is The Three City State getting rid of dictators across the globe to draw a tighter net of control at our expense. The entire mid eastern scenario is to create a powerful Mideastern Union either under control or vulnerable to control while eliminating all dictators. The rebels were trained in Turkey and released into Syria. Then they brought in Al Queda Mercs from Libya all coordinated by the British SAS and now you have defection in an Army that was secure.
idk ask the russia and china the same question
There is a big difference and it is the opposition of Russia and China. If Syria falls HIzballah will move in with the blessing of Iran and not only the middle east be set on fire, also Europe. Unless the Koran is changed and become more civilized, less violent and pro democracy, it may take another millennium to change the mentality of those people.
China or Russia did not block NATO intervention in Libya. If the French had their way they would get UN approval to launch a strike (Syria used to be a French satellite country for decades).
Al Asshat looks like Hermie as in, "Hermie doesn't like to make toys!!!!" Hahahahahahahahaah
This isn't a case of just sending Assad to another country to live out his final years. His brother, Maher, is considered more ruthless than he. This is a family business that would require considerable finesse to dissolve in one location and move elsewhere–without a startup in that new locale.
agreed it kinda like you have to pull up a dandelion by its roots or it'll just come back. we want the whole gov to go down or one of assads relatives is sure to take over
1) "A military coup ousts al-Assad but retains control" – it's not realistic. the Alawi regime and security forces will not dump Assad. Besides, who will replace him?
2) "Al-Assad holds on as figurehead while a transitional government is negotiated". The Sunnis resent the Russians and wouldn't accept it.
3) "Al-Assad’s regime yields to a transitional coalitional government". No, Assad doesn't want to.
4) "Syria descends into civil war". Possible, but the neighbours would prevent it from happening.
5) "Syria fractures internally but holds together as a fragile state". Most likely! Turkey and Saudi Arabia would prefer another Lebanon in the post Assad Syria.
6) "Syria effectively disappears and a new Sunni state arises to threaten Iraq’s territorial integrity". No, quite unlikely.
7) "Civil war is mercifully short, perhaps accelerated by a limited “Western” military intervention", No, it would not be a short war, with so many proxies involved.
8) *The second coming of the United Arab Republic!" The Muslim Brotherhood will grow in strength, but there will be no U.A.R.
9) "Syria surprises everybody and ends up being the most democratic post-Spring Arab regime". Too utopic!
Why do you ignor Assa'd's open threat to attack Isreal and set off a regional war ? Syria and Iran have openly adopted North Koorea's foreigh policy of threats and intimidation.
Assad attacking Israel virtually guarantees Assad's termination or arrest.
Assad is a considerable liability, Mossad tracks Assad everywhere.
While his possession of WMD gets no mention, he knows it's futile, his days are numbered.
MB are now his new enemy.
A bigger question is why RU/CH objected and vetoed?
The simple answer, they prefer payments in gold, not paper.
Paper promises lead to war, have not worked out too well over time.
Egyptians are beginning their Second Spring, it's that time of the season again. Syria skipped it, but can not avoid it any longer.
The best case scenario in all this is for the US and Nato to stay the hell out of it. This is a problem created by the mid-east countries. If anything is to be done militarily, let the Arab League nations combine their militaries and handle it on their own terms. The US does not need to be dragged into another conflict that is none of our business.
10) The mess spills over into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq drawing them in.
One strong man will be replaced by another, possibly even more brutal. If it's religious based then it will certainly be more brutal.
not true it depends on a presidents morals and acheivments
agree
there is no way Syria can fall like Libya.
The free Syrian Army is no army ...just a group of paid fighters strirring up trouble killing civilians and blaming it on the govt and for show for UN. Main media also helping to bluff.
joe shut up cuz i can telll from the way ur stating things that ur pro assad and that ur probably just trying to lie and hope ppl willl believe u which they wont bc most ppl r way smarter than u and i can tell bc ur probably being paid to right these comments all over diff articles on syrias revolution. P.S The Syrian army r not paid by some country they are COMPLETLY ORIGINAL AND R TRYING TO HELP THE POOR SYRIAN CIVILIANS THAT R BEING KILLED EVERY DAY!!!!!!!!!
so he is an idiot and paid for for stating his believes? and you're not
do you have an info source other than the opposition's and it's allies' sources? a political party that will rule if they won and will benefit it's allies
all medias are not independent even the us media is not fully independent
and BTW i'm not pro-assad
"they are COMPLETLY ORIGINAL AND R TRYING TO HELP THE POOR SYRIAN CIVILIANS THAT R BEING KILLED EVERY DAY!!!!!!!!!"
well they aren't completely original as they have "FN FAL" rifles with different types of scopes which were never adopted by syria, but it's true they are trying to help the syrians however even in their stronghold in homs people are dying by knifes and bullets that doesn't seem to be from a sniper rifle.
Western Powers should use UN resolution 377 so that Russia's veto doesn't count anymore...time for Assad to go.
@joe...Are you a middle east expert? Or you must from Syria using a Western name... Syria will fall just like Lybia.
AGREED AND "JOE" IS A STUPID NAME
No need to insult everyone named "Joe" just because one of them was a jerk.
Russia and china interests , embassies and economic departments will be under attack in the middleast and any where in the world
as they defend the killers in Syria and iran those evil must be dealt with on grass root level and must be hit hard before we hit bashar al asad of Syria, the resistant are working hard now to find the targets inside Russia and Russian targets inside middleast .,..wait and see ... bashar al asad killed 9345 almost 10,000 people already as his father before him who killed 30,000 in one week, those killers must be hanged, Saddam was hanged because he order to kill 40 spies, so al asad must be hanged 40 time over and over again
I don't mind the fact that Russia, China don't agree with U.S on this. However, they are not doing anything as an alternative to stop the massacre in Syria. That's what I find troubling. U.S is not a noble country. It violates human rights countless times but it's not in the business of supporting massacre at least in modern day pretty much anywhere. I do think U.S intention to stop the massacre is genuine.
Is this a new guessing board game? Gonna be hard to blame this mess on Bush or Reagan.
Or Obama...
Before a unilateral military option, the SNC is acknowledged by the AL and get the AL seat, the west expels the regime reps and handover the diplomatic missions to the SNC and acknowledges the SNC, then the US stops issuing visas to the regime as the US does not recognize them as the representatives of Syria so they cannot attend the UN, then a UN veto supported by the AL via the GA to hand the UN seat to the SNC which the Russians and PRC will veto at the UNSC. That will leave Assad very isolated.
A new order in Syria will be forged by fire without the regime actually falling, but greatly transforming.
Remember the UN is made up of a union of nations that share a the UN charter on human rights, so if nations act unilaterally outside the UN, but as a union then Assad can be isolated. The reason the Russians hate unilateral action is they have no control over it. So everything that you want to achieve via the UN can be achieved outside the UN.Clearly it for UN member nations to up hold the UN charter, even if the UN as a body cannot do it in extreme cases. So Assad can be isolated and even stopped from attending the UN, at least in the US.
The options are do that, use unilateral military force or do nothing. That will not change the regime that will only come from force by the FSA, but it will isolate the regime and it sends a message that such human rights abuses will not be tolerated by UN members.
Otherwise we are green lighting genocide. It is all to hard and throwing our hands in the air. Russia shut the UN down so not you have to act outside of it.
Smells like a huge war on it's way, like it or not. No One can avoid it. Too much bloodshed already.
Oy Vey! They won't stop making trouble. What's wrong with these people? Why can't they behave and be nice? What kind of family do they come from? Always causing trouble, lies, stealing, fighting, this is not how my father taught us to behave.
Be Nice!
mi5data not everyones a hippie like u and u can never destroy evil u can only rise above it and make it the minority thats what keeps the universe in balance
I'm not the expert on Syria, but I have the feeling that, in the end, the Syrian people will prevail. With any luck, that will be sometime soon. Maybe they can hang Assad on YouTube.
It will end with a lot of innocent people dead, with a lot of blood on the hands of a lot of Assad's thugs...Israel and Iran
threatening to wipe each other off the map...And a lot of Santimonious Chinese and Russians profiteering while blaming
the whole mess on the U.S. and Nato...
It's 2012 after all.
Simple Solution. Why can't our leader strap on his nobel peace prize medal and zip over to the middle east, organize some communites so they can all be at peace?
idk...... maybe its cuz nothing in gov is simple
Any scenario which results in Assad with his head off is a good one. He is worse than useless.
I think this is the first CNN article that captivated my attention.
blood shed of the shiia thugs is good send those village idiots to meet their 40 virgins...Syrian alwayat and shiia of iraq and iran practice the mot3a marriage it is a legal adultery....bringing bast,,,tered so they can populate the shiia cults
أكد وزير الخارجية التونسي رفيق عبد السلام اليوم السبت أن حكومة بلاده اتخذت قرارا بطرد السفير السوري في تونس، فيما أعلن الرئيس التونسي أن بلاده سحبت اعترافها بشرعية حكم الأسد، وذلك في وقت دعا فيه رئيس البرلمان العربي سالم الدقباسي الدول العربية لطرد السفراء السوريين المعتمدين لديها.
وقال عبد السلام في مقابلة مع الجزيرة، إن قرار الحكومة التونسية جاء احتجاجا على المجازر التي جرت وتجري اليوم في حمص وفي غيرها من المدن السورية، وأوضح أن وزارته ستقوم بتنفيذ القرار في القريب العاجل وستستدعي سفيرها في دمشق.
وتوقع الوزير أن تحذو معظم الدول العربية حذو بلاده في هذه الخطوة، وخص بالذكر مصر والمغرب ودول الخليج، وقال "نحن ننسق مع شركائنا في الدول العربية".
NOW IS THE TIME FOR THE RESISTANT TO GET RED OF RUSSIANS AND CHINA EMBASSIES, ATTACK THEM, SANCTION THEM, ARREST ALL THE CHINESE AND RUSSIANS IN UAE AND MIDDLEAST AND ALL THE MUSLIMS COUNTRIES, RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE PURE EVIL AND HAVE BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS WE MUST PUT THE BLOOD ALL OVER THEIR BODIES AND ATTACK THEIR INTEREST NOW, NO DEALS WITH THOSE EVIL RUSSIANS AND CHINESE
And what's wrong with that?
COUNTER FITED DOLLARS AND IRAQI DINAR DONE BY IRAN
علم هدهد سليمان ومن مصدر امني مهم , أن هناك طائرة نقل إيرانية تحط أسبوعيا في مطار النجف الاشرف وهي محملة بالمليارات من الدنانير العراقية المزورة من إيران وبعد ذلك يتم نقل هذه المليارات من الأوراق النقدية العراقية المزورة تحت حماية أمنية مشددة وبإشراف عدد معين من كبار المسئولين في أحزاب الائتلاف الوطني إلى البنك التجاري العراقي فرع النجف الاشرف لغرض إيداعها به , ومن ثم سحب البديل عنها بالعملة الصعبة والتي تقدر بالمليارات من الدولارات ثم تحمل سراً بنفس الطائرة لتقلع بها إلى طهران . this is a fact every week an Iranian plan fly to iraq and directly to najaf province not baghdad in this najaf province the evil province in iraq , this plan brings billions of Iraqi dinars faked Iran dinar from iran and exchange it with USA dollars in janaf under the watch of al hakeem and al maleki group, bringing billions of dollars back to iran and then give to Syria , Russia and Hezbollah. WHY USA DONT DO NOTHING , WHAT IS THE USE OF SANCTIONING IRAN AND KEEPING THE EVIL IRAQI PRIM MINSTER DOING THIS EVIL DEEDS WAKE UP OBAMA
Najaf is a holy city go f ur self
you are miserable
His days are numbered!
Nuclear Combat toe to toe with the Ruskys!
not likely pls be realistic
"Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of Chess?"
We'll lose 40, 50 million, tops!
what a joke cnn!!! #7 and only #7
How about Mossad or CIA taking out Assad? Those seem like options to me too.
none of these look good.
There is no credibility whatsoever in these simulations. Their output depends on whatever biased "assumptions" are fed in plus whatever biased "judgments" are applied to the simulation logic. Anyone with any intelligence and computer programming skills can "do" a simulation and come up with whatever he or she wants the outcome to be. And doing a parametric study doesn't help much because all that does is provide a range of biased "assumptions" and biased "judgments" any of which will "predict" an outcome. If one of the outcomes proves to be true, that is mere happenstance. Reality is much more complicated than can be "simulated" ... so it is just a game and nothing more.
Does anyone else think President Assad looks like a Vulcan...pointy ears and all?
Have I gone soft, or is there any doubt in any sane person's mind that Scenario 9 (Syria surprises everybody and ends up being the most democratic post-Spring Arab regime) is infinitely preferable to anything else ? Shouldn't the question really be: what would it take to make Scenario 9 feasible ?
I think you might have this option confused with "Plan 9" by Ed Wood.
Wikistrat, the world’s first massively multiplayer online consultancy ran an online simulation on what could go down in Syria. Here are the results:
Sounds like CIA wannabbes
My preferred scenario is Ari Fleischer heads a team of special ops actors that then take out Assad with the help of turncoat Mossad assassins. Military takes over and joins Egypt's interim Military leaders to form a coalition of Pan Arab Nations that would form a unified empire to boot Western diplomats out of the region and begin putting teeth into an effort to unify the Arabs in defense against what seems to be Western intervention in the region. Democracy barely has credibility in the USA what possible hope would it have in the Middle East now?
Obviously, this is how it plays out: President Gingrich sends Dr. Manhattan to appear as a god to the Syrians, who immediately surrender to him. Client state status is revoked when Gingrich discovers too many poor people live in Syria demanding food stamps. Angelina Jolie immediately adopts all Syrian orphans, who take over our universities and cheat on dermatology exams in order to give huge sums to Susan G. Komen to stop Planned Parenthood abortions. Earth is just about to be destroyed in sudden wave of overpopulation.when George Clooney, with new mutant powers, becomes President of Earth, sends the excess population to a planet dominated by intelligent apes (or Monster Truck fans), and sleeps with all the remaining hot women.
I think Assad will come to America and open an optometry practice and be very successful.
Only if he offers two for one on designer frames!
Since you seem to have a globalist agenda to manipulate news ,where my comments vanish, I will no longer make comments on articles here. Reuters seem to bann people if they are critical of our pimp in Middle East. That is not investigative journalism, it is censorship ala Germany 1936 or Soviet Union and in my opinion it is treason to lead us into war with Iran.
Speaking for our "globalist agenda," (whatever that is), we're really going to miss your drug induced hallucinatory insight. Now go sit in the corner and think about what you've done!
THE ONE AND ONLY WAY SYRIA WILL PLAY OUT:
It will be dictated by Sharia Law! Islam and State will be inseparable (as usual)!
no matter how developed scripts, if only there was a lot of blood spilled, Syria, a secular state and not a bad neighbor for Israel, and that if to power through coups and violent Islamists will come, what will happen, those who benefit from blazing fragmented Syria to Do the forces that pay and encourage the opposition to the war, remove the mask and gentlemen
fuc najaf and karbala and all the shiie3a and all the wahabies and all muslims iraninas are thugs killers terrorists , dont allow muslims to come here to usa and canda speciallay iranians , we must attack iran , QUM, KARBALA AND NAJAF NOW , ATTACK HIZBOALLAH ALL THOSE ARE TERRORISTS ALLIED WITH EVIL IRAN AND BASHAR AL KALB, QUM GRADUATE KILLERS AND MOT3A PEOPLE, KUS OMAHATKUM KELAB KHAWANA SHIIE3A ESHROOG MANAWEEK,
WELD AL MOT3A SAFWEEN, KUS OMAHAT BASHAR AL KALB, AND MOQTADA AL QATHER WA NORI AL HALEKI HOLAKO BAGHDAD, KUS OMAHATKUM FORS MAJOOS ESHROOF. TOF 3AL OMAHATKUM
VOICE IN THE WIND AND FU WAHABI THOSE ARE SHIIA VILLAGE IDIOTS LIVE IN USA .
most of those shiia thigs who lives here are terrorists help iran and hizboallah and send money to them those evil shiia kelab al majoos al safween worse than kelab al wahabeen .....middleast should run by non rlegion group. keep your faith in your home and in QUM AND THE EVIL CITY OF NAJAF AND KARBALA THE HOORE CITIES WHERE MOTAA ( LEGAL ADULTERY -ZENA IS PRACTICED ). LA3ANAKUM ALLAH YA KELAB YOU DESTROY ISLAM IRAN MUST END HIZBOALLAH MUST DIE AND END AHMEDI NEJADI THE CHIEF OF THE SHIIA MUST BE ELEMENATED. HE IS RETARD LIKE ALL THE SHIIE3A WHO MARRY THEIR COUSINS AND SISTERS, INBREED NATION OF EVIL ( GOG AND MAGOG)
iraqi government of NORI AL HALEKI ,KILLING CHRISTEANS
لا يتعلم العملاء من دروس التاريخ ، فهم مدفوعون باحقاد متجذرة في نفوسهم على كل ما هو عراقي وعربي ، فمع اقتراب موعد الانسحاب الامريكي المفترض من العراق تسارعت خطوات المهزومين باتجاه التخلص من قادة العراق في الاسر في اقرب وقت ، سواء باساءة معاملتهم اكثر مما سبق بمنع الدواء والعلاج عنهم لاجل قتلهم ، او التهديد بتنفيذ الاعدام بهم كما حصل مع شيخ الاسرى المناضل طارق عزيز . ان المزيج الواضح من الحقد والرعب من تحرير العراق هو الذي يدفع العملاء في بغداد للتهديد باعدام قادة العراق الاحرار والشرعيين ، ولكن هؤلاء لا يفهمون التاريخ ولذلك لا يأخذون العبر منه ، فالتاريخ يقول بان الاعدامات التي تنفذ للتخلص من الاحرار تزيد لهيب الثورة اشتعالا بدل اخمادها ، وامامنا مشهد اغتيال سيد شهداء العصر القائد صدام حسين حيث تحول الاغتيال الى مناسبة لزيادة عزلة الاحتلال والعملاء وتوسع شعبية القائد الشهيد والبعث .
واذا كان العملاء يعتقدون بانهم سيفلتون من عقاب الشعب فهم واهمون ، لان جرائمهم اكبر من ان تمر بلا عقاب ، ومنها اغتيال مئات القادة وتصفية الاف الكوادر المقاومة للاحتلال ، واعتقال عشرات الالاف من معارضي الاحتلال ، بالاضافة لتدمير العراق وتبديد وسرقة ثرواته علنا بحيث اصبح العراق المحتل في مقدمة الدول الفاسدة والفاشلة . ومهما اعتقد العملاء بان الاغتيالات سوف تضعف الثورة المسلحة ضد الاحتلال فان النتائج ستظهر لتؤكد بان الدم كلما سفك زاد لهيب الثورة وعجل موعد الحسم .
ان طارق عزيز يمثل احد اهم الوجوه المشرقة والمشرفة للعراق الحر والمستقل والسيد وصانع انجازات التقدم العلمي والتكنولوجي ، وهو كان يعد من افضل الديبلوماسيين في العالم ووصل امر الاعتراف بقدراته حد ان جورج بوش الاب حينما كان رئيسا ، وبعد فشل المفاوضات في عام 1991 بين وفد العراق برسائة طارق عزيز والوفد الامريكي برئاسة جيمس بيكر وزير خارجية امريكا وقتها ، قال امام بيكر وغيره بانه يتمنى لو كان لديه وزير خارجية بمواصفات طارق عزيز . هؤلاء هم رجالات العراق العظام سواء الاسرى منهم او من استشهد ومن مازال يقاوم الاحتلال بلا كلل .
ان اسرانا يخطون بتضحياتهم تاريخا مشرف للعراق ةوالامة العربية ، بصمودهم ورفضهم الانحناء لغطرسة الاحتلال ووحشية عملاءه ، وهم يعرفون منذ البداية بان درب تحرير الوطن وتحقيق اهداف الشعب ليس نزهة وانما هي تضحيات كبرى لا تنتهي الا بتحقيق اهداف الشعب ، ولذلك كانت وقفة رفاقنا وهم في الاسر مشرفة وتجلى ذلك في تمسكهم بمصلحة الشعب ورفضهم الرضوخ لتهديدات بالموت رغم ممارسة ابشع انواع التعذيب معهم وحرمانهم من ابسط حقوق الانسان الاسير ومنها العلاج وتوفير الدواء .
البعث الذي كان ومازال يناضل من اجل تحرر الامة وتحقيق المجتمع الخالي من الفقر والامية والمرض ...الخ وهذه الاهداف لا تتحقق الا بتضحيات مناضليه الذين يعرفون ان الاعدامات والاغتيالات مصير متوقع ومحسوب ، مثلما يعرفون ان الموت دفاعا عن الوطن هو خير خاتمة للحياة ، ففي النهاية جميعنا سنموت في يوم ما ولذلك فان اختيار الموت المشرف هو احد سمات صناع التاريخ والحضارات والتغييرات العظمى في مسار الانسانية . في ضوء ما تقدم فان التهديد بتنفيذ الاعدامات او تنفيذها فعلا لن يوقف مسيرة تحرير العراق واعادة العراق الى حالة الدعالة والاستقلال والامن وامان لمواطنيه كلهم بل على العكس سيزيد اصرار الثوار على التعجيل بالنصر وطرد الاحتلال وعملاءه .
وهنا لابد من تكرار التنبيه الى ان ما يسمى منظمات حقوق الانسان التي كانت تنظم الحملات الضخمة ضد العراق تحت واجهات خرق حقوق الانسان وكانت حملاتها احد اهم ممهدات غزو العراق تلتزم الصمت المطبق الان تجاه معاناة اسرانا وتعرضهم لاشد انواع خرق حقوق الانسان وعلنا ، ومع ذلك لا تفعل هذه المنظمات شيئا وكأن الامر لا يعنيها ! واذا كانت الدعوة لحماية حقوق الانسان جادة فان من الحتمي معاملة كل البشر بصورة متساوية لا ان تجري عمليات انتقاء وتزوير وتضخيم من اجل الدفاع عمن تريد امريكا حمايتهم لكن مناهضي الاحتلال الامريكي لا ينالون اي قدر من كشف ما يقع عليهم من مظالم .
وبهذه المناسبة فاننا نكرر دعوتنا للكتاب والصحفيين الاحرار في العراق وفي الوطن العربي لرفع اصواتهم دفاعا عن اسرانا وكشفا لما يتعرضون له من مظالم فظيعة ، وذلك احد اهم واجباتهم الوطنية والاعلامية والاخلاقية ، والصمت بازاء ما يحصل لاسرانا ليس سوى خيانة للامانة ونكوص عن مسار النضال الوطني والتحرري ، والتاريخ الان يسجل كل شيء .
المجد لاسرانا الشهداء الاحياء وفي مقدمتهم شيخ الاسرى القائد طارق عزيز .
تحية لرفاقنا الصامدين في سجون الاحتلال والعملاء .
December 9, 2011 at 10:34 pm | Reply
or Outcome #10 ... Read the book of Daniel in the KJV
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ask assad how things will go in syria because he is slaughtering the people at will with no resistance , putin has supported his effords . the obama gang was last seen rushing the door back to the usa. there will be no futher deals with sryia because the finger of assad would point at israel and a regional war would brake out. israel is concerned with iran not assad. so moving on to egypt and the little thing called the suez and a guy named putin and 19 detained americans.
Most of the people from both sides may not want to kill for all are humans. It looks diificult but not impossibe when each side forms circles to raise leaders who love peace and approach both sides with proposals to settle differences without FIRING A SHOT.It surely will get support from others parties, including Russia and China because most countries want peace.
I like option #10 Assad holds out and wins. Just like Sadamm did many times. He is too entrenched and won't be moved unless outside forces do it.
الفلسطينيّون في العراق : الجريمة المنسيّة
شبكة المنصور
عبد الكريم بن حميدة / تونس
انخفض عدد الفلسطينيّين في العراق من 34 ألفا إلى 6 آلاف لاجئ فقط في غضون سنوات الاحتلال الأمريكيّ التسع. بعضهم حطّت به رحلة اللجوء في البرازيل، وبعضهم الآخر في الأرجنتين .. وكثير منهم ما زال قابعا في أحد المخيّمات على الحدود مع سوريا أو الأردن..
ضاقت بهم أرض العراق بعد أن كانت لهم ظهيرا وملاذا.. وغدر بهم الشقيق قبل الصديق.. وعجز شرفاء العراق عن حمايتهم، فحملوا حقائب الرحيل.. وشرعوا في سفرة تيه جديدة.
من شتات إلى شتات.. ومن لجوء إلى آخر..
ذلك شأن الفلسطينيّين منذ نكبوا.. وذلك شأنهم منذ انتكسوا..
في العراق المحتلّ يتعرض الفلسطينيّون لسلسلة من الانتهاكات التي تطال حقوقهم المدنيّة والقانونيّة، مثلما يتعرّضون للتضييقات والملاحقات التي تصل حدّ استهداف ممتلكاتهم وأرواحهم.
عماد عبد الرحمن حمّاد آخر الضحايا الفلسطينيّين في العراق.. اعتقلوه.. وعذّبوه.. ثمّ قتلوه.
تهمته الكبرى أنّه.. فلسطينيّ!!!! وعليه أن يدفع ثمن فلسطينيّته على أيدي مغاوير الداخليّة "الأشاوس".
لن يكون عماد الضحيّة الأخيرة لهوس السلطات العراقيّة بالدم العربيّ. وبالتأكيد لن يكون الحلّ في تعهّدات يقطعها الطالباني أو المالكي للسلطة الفلسطينيّة أو المنظّمات الدوليّة.. فلطالما تعهّد هؤلاء وغيرهم بتوفير الحماية للفلسطينيّين.. لكنّهم لم يفعلوا.. ولن يفعلوا.
المشكل بالنسبة إلى الذين هُجّروا من العراق إلى داخل الأراضي السوريّة والأردنيّة أنّهم لا يتمتّعون في مخيّماتهم الجديدة بصفة "لاجئ". وهذا يعني أنّهم ليسوا مسجّلين أو مدرجين على قائمات اللاجئين، فلا الجهات الفلسطينيّة الرسميّة تتحمّل مسؤوليّتهم، ولا المنظّمات الإنسانيّة الدوليّة تعترف بوجودهم القانونيّ وتضمن لهم حقوق اللاجئ مثلما تنصّ عليه المواثيق الدوليّة.
كأنّه عزّ على هذه الجهات أن تمنحهم "شرف" اللجوء!!!
هم "بدون" فلسطين.. لا يطالبون بحقّهم في المواطنة، فذلك أمر بعيد..
إنّهم يطالبون بحقّهم في اللجوء، أي الاعتراف بهم لاجئين مع ما يترتّب عن هذا الاعتراف من بعض حقوق.. تكفل لهم بعض حياة...
السلطة الفلسطينيّة في رام الله، والحكومة الفلسطينيّة في غزّة كلتاهما تتعاملان مع موضوع اللاجئين الفلسطينيّين في العراق وكأنّه شأن يخصّ أصحابه دون سواهم.. فهم المسؤولون عن شتاتهم.. وعن تشرّدهم.
هؤلاء الفلسطينيّون يطالبون فقط بالاعتراف بهم "لاجئين". وهذا يقتضي من سلطتي غزّة ورام الله تمكينهم من الإقامة القانونيّة ومن الوثائق الإداريّة التي تقنّن وجودهم وتمنحه شرعيّة تنأى بهم عن كلّ أشكال الضغط والابتزاز والملاحقة التي تنتهك كرامة المرء وتصادر حرّيّته. ذلك أنّ حماية هؤلاء اللاجئين تُعتبر مسؤوليّة أخلاقيّة إضافة إلى كونها مسؤوليّة سياسيّة وقانونيّة تقع بالأساس على عاتق ممثّلي الفلسطينيّين قبل أيّ طرف آخر.
على أنّ هذا الجهد الوطنيّ الضروريّ لا بدّ أن يرافقه جهد إقليميّ دوليّ يخصّ منظّمة التعاون الإسلاميّ والمفوّضية السامية لشؤون اللاجئين (الأنروا)، ذلك أنّه لا يبدو أفق إنسانيّ واضح للمأساة التي يعاني منها فلسطينيّو العراق. بل نعتقد أنّ الرهان على الأمل في عودة الرشد إلى الحكومة العراقيّة أشبه ما يكون بمطاردة وهْم لأنّ ما يتعرّض له أشقّاؤنا هناك إنّما هو جزء من حملة ممنهجة لتهجير من تبقّى منهم تحت ذرائع شتّى وبأساليب تتفنّن القوّات الأمنيّة الحكوميّة في تطويرها وابتداع الجديد منها كلّ يوم.
على أنّ كلّ هذا لا يجب أن يُغفل دور منظّمات المجتمع المدنيّ ووسائل الإعلام في إثارة هذه القضيّة ومنع اتّساع رقعة معاناة فلسطينيّي العراق، وتسليط الضوء على هذه المأساة حتّى لا ننتقل بعد فوات الأوان من الصمت والغفلة إلى الرثاء والعويل.
hizboallah are terrorists and they should be elminated
نفى إرسال مقاتلين لمساعدة نظام الأسد
نصر الله: نتلقى السلاح والمال من إيران
نصر الله: أغنانا الله من إيران عن أي فلس في العالم (الفرنسية)
أقرّ الأمين العام لحزب الله اللبناني حسن نصر الله لأول مرة وصراحة بأن الحزب يتلقى من إيران السلاح والمال بما يغنيه عن مصادر أخرى، نافيا إرسال مقاتلين لمواجهة الاحتجاجات ضد النظام السوري الذي يواجه -حسبه- مؤامرة حيكت بين الغرب و"دول الاعتدال العربي" لإسقاطه.
وفي خطاب ألقاه أمس الثلاثاء عبر شاشة عملاقة أمام حشد من أنصار الحزب في الضاحية الجنوبية بمناسبة المولد النبوي الشريف، قال نصر الله "نتلقى الدعم المعنوي والسياسي والمادي بكل أشكاله الممكنة والمتاحة من الجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران منذ العام 1982".
وأقر نصر الله بأنها أول مرة يكشف فيها بهذه الصراحة عن الموضوع، قائلا "هذه الحقيقة كانت في السابق تقال بشكل جزئي.. كنا نقول لدينا دعم معنوي وسياسي، وعندما نسأل عن الدعم المادي والعسكري نسكت حتى لا نحرج الجمهورية الإسلامية".
وقال "أغنانا الله من إيران عن أي فلس في العالم.. لسنا محتاجين"، مؤكدا أن هذا الدعم يغني الحزب عن أنشطة غير مشروعة تتهمها به الولايات المتحدة كتبييض عائدات تهريب المخدرات.
وأضاف نصر الله أن الدعم الذي تقدمه إيران بلا مقابل وبلا إملاءات، وهم هناك "يدفعون أثمانا باهظة لوقوفهم إلى جانب فلسطين ولبنان".
وتابع أن إيران إذا تعرضت لضربة عسكرية -وهو أمر استبعده- "فنحن نفكر وندرس ماذا نفعل"، نافيا أن يكون النظام الإيراني يحمل مشروع التشيّع.
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حسن نصر الله:
شريحة كبيرة من الناس وداخل الجيش ما زالت تؤيد النظام السوري
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احتجاجات سوريا
وفي خطابه شكر نصر الله أيضا لسوريا دورها في دعم حزبه، وقال إن هناك شريحة كبيرة من الناس وداخل الجيش ما زالت تؤيد النظام السوري، لذا فإن "افتراض أن هذا النظام معزول شعبيا غير صحيح"، نافيا إرسال مقاتلين إلى سوريا للمساعدة في مواجهة الاحتجاجات.
ويواجه نظام بشار الأسد منذ مارس/آذار 2011 احتجاجات قتل فيها أكثر من ستة آلاف مدني حسب المعارضة.
وحسب نصر الله، باتت المعارضة المسلحة تطغى على الاحتجاجات في سوريا، حيث هناك "قرار أميركي إسرائيلي غربي عربي على مستوى دول الاعتدال العربي بإسقاط النظام"، لأن المطلوب في سوريا هو "رأس المقاومة في لبنان وفلسطين".
وانتقد الأمين العام لحزب الله من يشترط من المعارضة السورية لحوار النظام، قائلا "من يحرص على سوريا لا يقول فات الأوان، بل يذهب إلى الحوار دون شروط، لا بشرط تنحي الرئيس".
وتحدث عن اتصالات أجرتها أطراف على علاقة بالمعارضة السورية مع حزبه، حيث أبلغوه بقولهم "لا تقلقوا من النظام البديل.. نتعهد لكم باستمرار دعم المقاومة ووصول السلاح إليها".
1. ذكرت في الحلقة السابقة ( السادسة ) اطمئناني لإخواني المترجمين العاملين في القواعد العسكرية الأمريكية الذين اتصلوا بي ليعنوا في رسائلهم توبتهم الى الله والوطن والشعب والذين تم تسميتهم بالأرقام بدلا من أسمائهم الحقيقية حرصا على أمنهم وحياتهم من قوات الاحتلال الأمريكي , وعاهدتهم بأنني سأقوم بتحويل أسمائهم والمؤشرة إزاء كل منهم أرقامهم السرية الى الجهات الخاصة المتعاونة مع المقاومة العراقية وهم كل من :
أ. المترجم التائب رقم ( 10) محافظة نينوى .
ب. المترجم التائب رقم ( 15 ) محافظة بابل .
ج. المترجم التائب رقم ( 20 ) محافظة التأميم .
د. المترجم التائب رقم ( 50 ) محافظة بغداد .
هـ. المترجمة التائبة رقم ( 75 ) محافظة بغداد .
و. المترجمة التائبة رقم ( 100 ) محافظة بغداد .
ز. المترجم التائب رقم ( 125 ) محافظة صلاح الدين .
2. أرسل لي المترجم رقم ( 50 ) من محافظة بغداد معلومات خطيرة عن عملاء مزدوجين للقوات الأمريكية والإيرانية وموثقة بالوثائق والصور التي تثبت ذلك وهم :
أ. العميل ( حسن سعيد حسن الكليدار ) مهنته ضابط شرطة متقاعد – محكوم سابق في زمن النظام السابق بتهمة مخلة بالشرف ( الرشوة والاختلاس ) لمدة سنين في سجن أبو غريب أثناء حكم النظام السابق .
عمله الحالي – عميل مزدوج للاستخبارات الأمريكية والإيرانية .ويكلف الى الآن بمهمات استخباراتي داخل بغداد وخارجها وخارج العراق
عنوانه : يسكن بغداد – الجهاد حي الأطباء
ب. العميل ( أمرو ألقيس حسن سعيد الكليدار ) قضى حياته في السرقة والنصب والاحتيال – هارب من الخدمة العسكرية أيام النظام السابق – خدم كجندي في الجيش الأمريكي في فرقة الخيالة الثالثة – كان من ضمن الفرقة القتالية التي اقتحمت الفلوجة – أنتسب الى الجيش الأمريكي عام 2003 والى الآن .
يعمل حاليا ضمن الاستخبارات الأمريكية في خدمة الجيش الأمريكي – عميل مزدوج للاستخبارات الأمريكية والإيرانية – ويكلف الى الآن بمهمات استخباراتية وقتالية داخل بغداد وخارجها وخارج العراق .
- لديه ورشة تبريد لتغطية أعماله الإجرامية
-عنوانه : يسكن بغداد – الجهاد حي الأطباء.
ج. العميل ( مروان حسن سعيد حسن الكليدار ) خدم مترجم لقوات الاحتلال الأمريكي – أنتسب عن طريق أبوه ( حسن سعيد حسن الكليدار ) الى الاستخبارات الأمريكية عام 2004 – والآن منتسب الى الاستخبارات الأمريكية
– يسكن بغداد – الجهاد حي الأطباء .
د. صديق عائلة حسن سعيد حسن الكليدار العميل المزدوج ( مازن التميمي ) يسكن مدينة السماوة ويعمل معهم ويرافقه في كل شي وهو احد أعضاء المجلس الأعلى للثورة الإسلامية (فيلق بدر)
د. صهر امرؤ ألقيس أي زوج بنت حسن سعيد واسمه العميل ( إبراهيم حربي إبراهيم القيسي ) وهو نائب ضابط سابق في الجيش العراقي ويعمل الآن مع القوات الأمريكية وقد نسبته القوات الأمريكية لحماية امن السفارة الألمانية وبعدها عمل في المنطقة الخضراء وكان يركب سيارة كولف حمراء .
عنوانه : منطقة المنصور حاليا .
3. إليكم الوثائق الموثقة بالصور أدناه للعملاء الجواسيس أعلاه ومعهم الكثير من العملاء العراقيين الذين باعوا دينهم وشرفهم للمحتل الكافر الأجنبي من الضباط والجنود الذين خدموا الاحتلال الأمريكي راجيا من أبناء العراق النشامى وفي حالة معرفة كل من يظهر في هذه الصور ان يزود المقاومة العراقية بأسمائهم ومناطق سكناهم او تزويد الشبكات والمواقع التي ستنشر هذه الاعترافات بأسمائهم وعناوين سكناهم وأية معلومات أخرى يعرفونها عنهم , والوثائق هي :
• اسمه ( أمرو ألقيس حسن سعيد الكليدار ) قضى حياته في السرقة والنصب والاحتيال – هارب من الخدمة العسكرية أيام النظام السابق .
• خدم كجندي في الجيش الأمريكي في فرقة الخيالة الثالثة
• كان من ضمن الفرقة القتالية التي اقتحمت الفلوجة
• أنتسب الى الجيش الأمريكي عام 2003.
• يعمل حاليا ضمن الاستخبارات الأمريكية في خدمة الجيش الأمريكي .
• عميل مزدوج للاستخبارات الأمريكية والإيرانية – ويكلف الآن بمهمات استخباراتية وقتالية داخل بغداد وخارجها وخارج العراق .
• لديه ورشة تبريد في منطقة المنصور لتغطية أعماله الإجرامية .
• يسكن بغداد – الجهاد حي الأطباء.
والعميل الجاسوس : امرؤ ألقيس حسن سعيد حسن الكليدار : هو من مدينة سامراء ومن عائلة الكليدار التي تسكن المدينة وهي عائلة مشهورة بالالتزام الديني والتقيد بالعادات والتقاليد , نشأت هذا العميل في بغداد , والده شرطي واسمه حسن وهو معروف بسقوطه الأخلاقي وانحرافه وقد حكم عليه سابقا بالسجن (10)سنوات بتهمة الاغتصاب والرشوة وطرد من الخدمة .
We have lived in harmony with our Christian neighbors, the people of Syria are not extremists, there will be no salafi/wahabi style government. We are not putting our lives on the line to embrace any new type of theocracy or dictatorship. The Kurds would be welcomed as part of a new government, that should and would reflect the wishes of both the Sunni's and Christians in the country. The Alawite would have to decide if they could stay without wielding the type of favoritism and cronyism that has existed since the coup of their father Assad. All those who have supported the brutality and legitimacy of the Assad regime should be held accountable for the sadistic suffering of all Syrians.
Well these guys did not do a good job of online probable scenarios, because Iran is now sending a crack 15,000 man division to Syria and this weekend Russia's top military men (those that would plan possible intervention by THE GREATEST LIVING LEADER – Da Man, Da Only, Vlad Putin) will head to Damascus, means that Russia, Iran and the Shia's are drawing a line in the Syrian sand.
Christians in syria should be vigilant about the fact that Assad thugs might orchestrate a masacre against them and blame it on the opposition . This Alawite regime is capable of committing autrocities infront of the silent world. Where are the free and civilized world to speak and take action, where are the survivers of the nazi holocast. It is a shame that no body care.....
Rebels will be crushed. This is obvious.They do not stand a chance against an army .
IMHO:
1) the people won't give up
2) army defections (Sunni recruits and lower ranking officers) will increase
3) the wealthy Allawites will start leaving
4) some large rebel military units will be formed
5) there will be a BAD show-down between the rebel military and the core security services and elite military (core regime)
a) the core regime won't be able to hide from the majority Sunni population who will turn harder and harder against them as atrocities increase
b) the rebel military can hide and ambush and sustain civilian casualties (which sucks, but price of freedom) indefinitely
6) The core regime will lose the civil war
a) Hizbollah will gets its ass kicked courtesy of all the Sunni nations if tries to intervene
7) The Syrians will turn out to be reasonable people who will select some hodge podge opposition coalition supported by the West to put it all back together.
8) The war phase will take 6 to 9 months.
a) during which time Israel and/or the US will attack Iran
9) Recovery will take longer, because no oil money, but being poor and free is better than being enslaved or slaughtered
Oh, and Turkey will do the right thing throughout the whole scenario, supporting the rebels, helping the recovery, etc, and will emerge as a much stronger regional player.
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