By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
We need to ask ourselves three interrelated questions about Syria. First, what is likely to happen there? Second, what should the United States do about it? And third, what is the broader impact of instability in Syria? I’ll tackle each question in turn.
What is likely to happen?
Bashar al-Assad drew an unfortunate lesson from the Arab Spring: Don’t waiver; don’t make concessions; don’t show weakness. In al-Assad’s eyes, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak vacillated in his response to protests and ended up in prison. Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi wasn’t ruthless enough and ended up dead. Al-Assad has chosen to be brutal.
If you look throughout history, you’ll find that such brutality often works. The killings in Tiananmen Square did disperse the pro-democracy movement in China. For more examples, look at Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968.
Read: Arming the Syrian opposition is risky.
History suggests that al-Assad might be successful, except for one fact: The Syrian regime is truly isolated and weak. It doesn’t have a lot of money and it doesn’t have a superpower sponsor like Hungary and Czechoslovakia did.
Syria’s main patron is Iran. But there must be limits to Iran’s economic support. Iran is facing serious financial pressures of its own. I don’t doubt Syria’s intention to crack down, but I do question its capacity to fund its crackdown indefinitely.
For these reasons, I think we’re going to see a low-grade civil war in Syria for the foreseeable future. The government will not be able to fully suppress this revolt. The opposition will prove unable to completely overturn the government. The stalemate could go on for a long, long time. For examples of this, look at Yemen in the 1970s, Lebanon in the 1980s, or Somalia in the 1990s.
What should the United States do?
The United States should try to help the forces of democracy and freedom in Syria. But we don’t know who the opposition is, exactly. Does it favor democracy? We only know that it is opposed to a brutal dictatorship. That entitles it to some support from us, but we need to learn more.
For now, I think we should continue isolating the Syrian regime. We should help Syria’s opposition politically and perhaps economically. I would not, however, advocate arming the rebels or embracing any other kind of military role for the United States. That is a big leap and it is not clear that military intervention will succeed.
Read: Should the West intervene in Syria?
First of all, such intervention would be viewed as unilateral. It would be very different from the situation leading up to the Libyan intervention, which came after the Transitional National Council in Libya, the Arab League, and the United Nations endorsed it and after the Europeans agreed to do the heavy lifting.
We have to think carefully about when and where the U.S. uses its military power. It should be in places where we feel the costs are not high, the dangers are not huge, and the likelihood of success is reasonable. There is no point in getting involved in a military intervention that is going to be a fiasco, ultimately won’t work, or will backfire.
What is the broader impact of instability in Syria?
The regional or global consequences of low-grade civil war in Syria are limited. Syria is not an oil-producing country. It is not right next door to the Strait of Hormuz. It is not a vital supply route. Syria has been an isolated country for a while.
In today’s world of trade, globalization and interdependence, political instability in one country tends to get cordoned off. I was stunned during the Iraq War at how complete chaos in Iraq had no discernable effect on the economies of nearby Jordan, Turkey or the United Arab Emirates. All of these places are a 45-minute flight from Iraq. But while Iraq was in a complete meltdown, these neighbors were booming. As far as I could tell, the only effect of the Iraq War on their economies was that it boosted real estate prices in Amman, Dubai, and Istanbul because a flood of Iraqis were buying up real estate.
Read: Three military options for Syria.
In a similar way, we aren’t seeing major regional or global repercussions of the violence in Syria.
The only country that is really affected by instability in Syria is Iran. Iran has gone all-in backing al-Assad’s regime. So to the extent that we’re seeing a slow motion collapse of that regime, the situation becomes increasingly expensive for Iran and associates Iran with repression, brutality, and failure.
What to watch
Repressive regimes usually start their downward spiral when internal divisions open up. So far, you haven’t seen that in Syria. The regime’s base has stayed intact. The Nobel Prize-winning economist and international relations theorist Thomas Schelling writes about a “focal point” - the one thing that everyone can agree on in a regime. The Syrian regime endures because it has Bashar al-Assad as its agreed-upon head. He serves as a “focal point” just as the young Kim Jong-un does in North Korea. Neither has all of the power, but they are the common denominator that all powerful factions in the country can agree on.
Read: How Syria differs from Libya.
Once you see army defections, cracks within the intelligence apparatus, and the fracturing of the business elites, then you’ll know that the end is near. At that point, the United States might want to reevaluate its options.
However, we should also keep in mind that while al-Assad is brutal and Syria is a mess, Syria after al-Assad may be even worse. Syria could end up being Libya on steroids.
For more of my thoughts throughout the week, I invite you to follow me on Facebook and Twitter and to visit the Global Public Square every day.
Unfortunately Zakaria proved to me that he does not know what he is talking about. He never lived there and he has no depth of knowledge about Syria. His analyses are very wrong. He does'n know the syrian people and does not understand the structure of the Syrian Regime. 3 missals to the Syrian Palace will bring the government down. The repressed Syrian people will bring the government down and will not take more than 2 months. There is no way back. The Syrians people only need medical and protection of the vivilians
Al Qaeda is led in USA by the Jew Adam Pearlman.
The only person wanted by the FBI for treason in over 50 years, is the Jew
behind the US branch of Al Qaeda - Adam Pearlman.
So why would Al Qaeda, filled with Jews, hate Assad and kill Syrian civilians? Answer: To build Greater Israel. Everybody knows this.
How interesting, first two bomb plots in two countries that are friends and business partners with Iran by methods used only by Israel before. and the next day some supposed Persian guy explodes himself. Please Israel it's too obvious, lets face it you guys are smart but Mullahs are a step ahead
of you when it comes to be underhanded.
Do we see Syria arming the Occupy Wall Street protestors with anti-tank missiles, sniper rifles and AK-47's?
– Aaron Godfarb
You cannot arm people against US Government it is a terrorist activity.You can arm people against any other Government if you like, this is allowed.The only rule that rules the world is Might is Right, so follow this rule you will have never trouble.
Might would like to rule the world, but Justice always wins out. Note the failure of the Roman Empire, the failure of the USSR empire. Notice how nuclear China now supports the Arabs, who have the oil, over the Jews who want to make a Greater Israel. China and Russia are blocking the Jewish UN resolutions, much as the USA has blocked UN resolutions against Israel.
Might is usually never Right. China knows this, this is why China hasn't used nuclear weapons on civilians. Using Might without justice and morals means that Might has no might, no lasting power.
Zakarea, you really should read more about strategies and look to the map of the world to understand that no one can attack Syria. Syria is able to turn the middle east into hell.
one more thing, all reports here on CNN said that All syrians are against Assad, while the truth is that Assad has the support of the majority people.
NAKH, how do You know what the "truth" is? If Assad had majority support he wouldn't need tanks and artillery to
put down (what began as) civil disobedience. Assad and his military turned it into armed conflict. Assad has revealed
himself to be no better than Saddam Hussein-a dictator who cares nothing for the well being of his people. He needs
to be removed (not by the U.S. but by the Russians)...unfortunately for everyone there is Putin in the way...
Syria's is about to go off the map as badly as has Somalia...
I don't think you have considered the relationship between Syria and Iran. A civil war in Syria isolates and weakens Iran. The US sees Iran as the biggest treat in the middle east. An unstable Syria means that the US does not have to look over its shoulder at Syria while it deals with Iran. Hence no US advantage to intervene. In addition, If the US does intervene can it handle military action in Afghanistan, Syria and Iran at the same time. This may seem cold analysis, but its the way i see it.
we must attack iran now before it is too late when we do iran, the other thugs in syria , bashar al kalb and hizboalla the evil parties and terrorists will fall.....
The best comment I have ever seen.
The Global Public Square is where you can make sense of the world every day with insights and explanations from CNN's Fareed Zakaria, leading journalists at CNN, and other international thinkers. Join GPS editor Jason Miks and get informed about global issues, exposed to unique stories, and engaged with diverse and original perspectives.
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Obama as a foreign policy president?
Why Snowden should stand trial in U.S.
Hillary Clinton's truly hard choice
China's trapped transition
Obama should rethink Syria strategy
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