Editor's Note: Bilal Y. Saab is a Visiting Fellow at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
By Bilal Y. Saab - Special to CNN
Despite their pain and suffering, Syrians' struggle against tyranny shows no signs of slowing down.
A year ago, inspired by the success of revolts in the Arab world, Syrians rose against the authoritarian regime of President Bashar Assad, seeking to replace it with a democratic system of government. Their remarkable bravery and unrelenting determination notwithstanding, Syrians are still far from achieving their goal, a dream that is five decades old. Instead, mostly because of al-Assad’s systematic and lethal repression campaign, Syrian society is inching closer to full-blown civil war, one that threatens to tear the country apart a la 1975-1990 civil war Lebanon and engulf other parts of the Middle East in sectarian conflict.
Why has Syria taken a different course from Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya?
Though each of these countries is unique in its geography, political history, and social fabric, Tunisians, Egyptians, and Libyans had to go through some familiar processes before they were able to topple their national governments. Tunisia’s uprising was shockingly fast; Egypt’s was blessed by the army; and Libya’s was bolstered by NATO’s jets. But all three underwent similar and necessary processes of social mobilization and organization that Syria has yet to experience.
The Tunisian uprising was unusually swift because it was immediately supported by all the country’s opposition groups, from the religious Islamists to the Communists, as well as by its labor unions. In Tunisia, there was a widespread sense of unity among the country's elites and publics. In Egypt, the army did not crush the uprising because Egyptian society, with all its political walks of life, stood united against President Hosni Mubarak. In Libya, NATO intervened only after the rebels spoke with one voice and demanded outside help. The bottom line is that unity and effective organization and mobilization allowed Tunisians, Egyptians, and Libyans to march toward Tunis, Cairo, and Tripoli respectively. From then on, it was clear that the days of Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak, and Moammar Gadhafi were numbered (although the latter was based in Sirte, a city between Tripoli and Benghazi, rebel advances to Tripoli indicated his imminent defeat).
When it comes to social revolutions, capitals often play a central role. Indeed, there existed a specific moment in the history of many European nations when a popular insurrection in the capital was capable of bringing down the national government virtually overnight and irrespective of public sentiment in the provinces. In addition to the Arab cases above, take France, for example. The Parisian insurrections of 1789, 1830, and 1848 were not only crucial to the success of these separate revolutions but they also brought about timeless principles including equality before the law, freedom of the press, the rights of assembly and association, and universal manhood suffrage.
Indeed, it was Paris’s mobilizations that granted French citizens (and Europeans) their most precious rights. The same went for London, Berlin, Moscow and other European capitals where the relative concentration of elites and their intermixing with large masses capable of radical action made the success of the revolution more likely. Europe’s modern history shows that coalition politics were nurtured in capitals. Members of a variety of strata of urban and rural society were brought together in capitals. And perhaps most importantly, political integration on a national scale took place in capitals.
While many parts of Syria have been imbued with revolutionary fervor, its eerily calm capital, Damascus, has been almost aloof to events. Sure, some of its suburbs including Ghouta, Saqba, Duma, Kfar Batna, and Hammouriya witnessed a jolt this past month, but central Damascus has yet to witness a popular insurrection of the sort that would cause the earth to shake under al-Assad’s and his cronies’ feet. Why?
You know that something has gone terribly wrong when highly respected, credible, and internationally recognized Syrian opposition figures such as Michel Kilo and Haytham Manna’ refuse to join (and even take issue with) the Istanbul-based Syrian National Council (SNC), an umbrella opposition body that claims to speak for the Syrian people. You also know that big mistakes were made when a year into the uprising, the majority of Syrian elites - the merchant and business class - and several ethnic minorities including the Christians are staying home and watching events from afar.
As the security situation in Syria worsens (these past two months alone have been the bloodiest since the uprising started) and government forces and rebels escalate their attacks against each other, issues of external intervention and the international community’s responsibility to protect civilians will become increasingly salient and hotly debated.
The United States and its allies justify their lack of forceful action in Syria by outlining the risks, costs, difficulties, and unintended consequences of options such as aerial strikes against al-Assad’s forces and/or military assistance to the rebels. These are fair and real challenges. But when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says that Syria is not Libya, she is not merely referring to the obvious, objective dissimilarities between the two cases, she is pointing to a crucial difference: Unlike Libya’s, Tunisia’s, and Egypt’s societies which managed to (at least temporarily) unite against their oppressors, Syrian society (with its internal and external opposition and almost exclusively Sunni armed rebel movement) is still divided and the country’s capital, while certainly tense, remains immobile and unwilling to rise.
It may be only a matter of time before Syrian rebels reach central Damascus, but until the Syrian opposition truly unifies, gains some credibility in the eyes of the Syrian people, and effectively coordinates with the armed rebels, the Syrian uprising is not likely to go very far.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Bilal Y. Saab.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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St. Petersburg – and not Moscow – was the capital as the Russian Revolution broke out in February 1917.
Apart from the peaceful Glorious Revolution in 1688 there hadn't been any revolution in Britain.
Protests are catching up in Damascus too, while the Chinese delegation was there to talk to Assad. If Assad doesn't want to step down and he's too strong for the oppostion to topple, let him stay in power and keep those who support him. The opposition can break away from Syria and be on their own.
Now that's a very good idea, j. von hettlingen. The Kurds in both Eastern Turkey and Northern Iraq need to do the same thing and set up their own Republic and name it Kurdistan. After all, these people haven't had a homeland of their own since c.200 BC when the Sarmatians drove them out of what's now Ukraine.
All good stuff, but don't forget, Saudi Arabia and other close allies of the West were very quick to resolve and stifle their own Arab springs barely without a mention in the media. Syria is obviously not being managed as well and geopolitically it looks real bad. Both China and Russia are under a lot of heat over this fiasco, both internally and globally, and Asshead is now trapped between a lot of rocks and hard places.
The only realistic solution is replace him with a more benevolent BRIC puppet, as soon as possible.
Now that's not such a bad idea as long as it's not a Washington D.C. puppet nor that of Great Britain or France!!! The best thing here still is to somehow get the Assad regime and the "rebels" to the negotiating table.
There's an important difference in those countries though – they stifled their social unrest by throwing gobs of money at their citizens. That's a type of oppression Americans can really get behind.
Before the Restoration in 1660, England had a bloody civil war that began in 1642 and culminated with the then reigning monarch, Charles I, being decapitated, setting the precedent for popular regicide; the English killed their king centuries before the Bolsheviks killed the Tsar. After some initial turmoil, Oliver Cromwell was installed as the Protector (basically, dictator) to rule in tandem with parliament, actually Cromwell dominated parliament. The period in between was known as the interregnum or the period between monarchs.
The period where Cromwell ruled England was pretty bloody itself, leading to the restoration.
As for the Russian Revolution, there were two, the February 1917 Revolution was relatively peaceful, with the royal family imprisoned, not yet executed, and a provisional Russian Democracy set up. This lead to civil war between those who wanted a democracy and the (damn) Bolsheviks resulting in the October Revolution and the eventual execution of the czar and royal family. My grandparents supported the Feb 1917 revolution and the russian Republic and had to flee Lenin, Trotsky and their henchmen. It wasn't just the monarchy that the Bolsheviks were out to eliminate, it was everyone who opposed their thinking.
No 'revolution in Britain'? Aren't you forgetting the Civil War and Cromwell?
The military conflict in 1640's England, culminating in the Cromwellian dictatorship/protectorate would not be categorized as a revolution. It was a civil war between two factions vying for political power. It devolved INTO a revolution once Cromwell was in power and, he dies, the restoration with James II comes into place. The "sticking" point is when Parliament forces the King out of power and requests a foreign power (Dutch William of Orange) to become the King.
now what's the point of assad staying in power and letting some factions break away? make some sense please. it's like going to a heads up poker championship table, looking into the eyes of the other guy and say, i'm here but i don't want to win.
oh wait, that maybe the most brilliant strategy since it will confuse the heck out of your opponent, and win. man, my head hurts.
You might yet see uprisings in Damascus if Arab countries would coalesce as a coalition and bomb select portions of the city.
With knowledge that Russia,China, and Iran are supporting the regime, that situation probably won't gain much traction.
If the U.S. should at some point play hardball with Tehran, Damascus may receive "collateral consideration."
Dear Mr. Bilal
i am surprise and would like to ask you a question: do you believe that these events in Syria are really rebelllion ? if you believe pls. allow me to tell you and all others who write like you you are living in the mentality of previuos century , because all the anlisist who write in this way teill now didn't understand that the power of balance in the world has stared to change and the is no more one pole in the world, if you understand this reality you and others wouldn't write in this way!
Dear Wardishman,
I could not help but feel compelled to several points in your statement to "Dear Mr. Bilal" I am curious as to which particular mindset you are referring to of the previous century. There were in the previous centuries many different policies that were consistently changing due to the fluidity of the political landscape. Political analysts have been constantly aware of the Balance of Power Theory which expresses the doctrine intended to prevent any one nation from becoming sufficiently strong so as to enable it to enforce its will upon the rest. Which is the fear of the current instability of the Middle East that one nation will rise and dominate all others. *unless of course you were referring to a different Balance of Power model.
The Syrian minorities in Damascus do not openly support the opposition because they do not wish to commit suicide. The government at present has the power to destroy them, and nobody has voiced a willingness to come to their aid if they rebelled. Incidentally no rebellion started in Syria a year ago. Children wrote slogans on a wall, and were tortured and murdered by the government in response. This led to unarmed protest throughout the country, which was greeted by violent reprisal arrests and tortures by the government. As more and more Syrians became outraged by this one sided violence, many and probably almost all Syrians not in the pay of the government wished it to stop, and people began to acquire arms and contemplate armed insurrection. The government, with the help of Hezbollah, Iranians and Russia and China has doubled down on the violence and is attacking domestic enemies or potential enemies aggressively. Anyone even expressing sympathy with the citizens of Homs and Hama in Damascus is risking his or her life and family. What the government is doing is called terror, and as long as it has the strength to terrorize, defenseless minorities will cower and maintain silence. Reading disunity into that behavior is foolishness.
An old Arab proverb: The road from Baghdad to Damascus is short.And even shorter for a Tomahawk cruise missile.
I like your arab proverb.
or a Reaper.
Although it might be tempting to kill Assad and his minions, what and who would take there place? Before we react, we need to think.
Wish somebody had reminded Dubya of that. His father understood it, but clearly Dubya did not.
The 1789 revolution in France brought about the Reign of Terror, which didn't abate until Napoleon staged a military coup and became a virtual dictator, possibly a worse tyrant than the Bourbon king the revolution overthrew. This appears to be the present state of Libya and potentially for Egypt. Democracies don't deterministically follow the toppling of tyrants.
Consider the Iranian revolution and the Russian revolution, all previous Arab revolutions, and almost every other revolution you can find. You will see you understated the case. A revolution almost NEVER results in Democracy.
The American revolution resulted in democracy. It is probably not alone in that, but very close to alone. Most of those who see "democracy" in the results of other revolutions are lying about what they actually see.
The American Revolution resulted in anything but democracy, if by democracy one means the sovereignty of the people. A landowning, merchant aristocracy continued to rule after the "revolution", and still does. John Adams said when the history of the revolution was written it would be one continuous lie, and that there had never been a democracy - no less avaricious as a system of government than an aristocracy or monarchy - that had not committed suicide (Letters to Gerry, Taylor). ... In all of history, any "democratic revolution" has always been appropriated by the wealthy classes. There has yet to be a true democracy on this planet.
This uprising still doesn't have an "indigenous feeling" to it. There are many foreign powers who have too much to gain if there is a "regime change".
who or whom – please name someone?
How often do you get these "indigenous feelings?" Have you had a doctor look at it?
Every year I pull out Lawrence of Arabia, sit back, with a Scotch, and watch the classic David Lean movie...every year I ask myself at the end of the movie what has progressed, within the present Arab Nations.....every year it is the same response ......not much!
The final great scene of the movie, were all tribes vehemently fight for position and control of varying portions of the city/country to no resolve, still echos today.
All very sad!
We can see tragedy in the story of the French and British tricking the Arabs into believing the fight against the Turks led to Arab freedom. We can see tragedy in the later story of Soviet Union guided Arab revolution against the puppet governments set up by the French and British. Now we get to see greater tragedy as Arabs do even worse in violently replacing tyrants with new tyrants with out foriegn guidance than they ever did with such guidance.
A society that prefers killing it neighbors to prospering itself is not ready for democracy.
In the American revolution, the French were trying to steal a British colony with the unwitting help of the colonists, just as foriegn powers, including the French, repeatedly did to the Arabs. The USA had some luck in turning that around so that the French unwittingly helped us to freedom. But we also had a culture that demanded democracy, not a culture that rejected it.
That's a bit of a slant on history. So the logistical help Lawrence gave the Arabs had nothing to do with expelling the Turkish garrisons throught the region?
The French were just following the old adage: the enemy of my enemy is my friend. It's a known fact that the French Monarchy bankrupted itself aiding the United States. The French were just taking advantage of the situation and made
What Mrs Imperialist Clinton calls “peaceful protesters brutalized by Assad’s military” are in fact rebels armed and financed by Washington. Washington has fomented a civil war. Washington claims its intention is to rescue the oppressed and abused Syrian people from Assad, just as Washington rescued the oppressed and abused Libyan people from Gaddafi. Today “liberated” Libya is a shell of its former self terrorized by clashing militias. Thanks to Mr. Obomer , another country has been destroyed.
http://globalresearch .ca/index .php?context=va&aid=29383
That is crazy talk! Maybe you should ask the people who were actually brutalized by the regime.
Yeah right, you WISH Washington gave a rats @$$ about, what's the name of that country... Siri? Sorry, in case you haven't noticed, America is way too self-absorbed to care about what is going on in.....um, Syria?
Assad has written his own death arrant. The revolutionaries will never give up, and the rest of the world is with them. When they finally win, Assad will be taken out and hanged.
That is exactly what I am thinking. He has gone too far now so he is pretty much a dead man walking unless he can brutalize them in to submission. He has nothing to loose, which is also a problem. He just needs to be assassinated.
Uhm...The French Revolution of 1789 was a complete failure. Within ten years, the government was in control of a single dictator: Napoleon, who went on to wage one aggressive war after another. When Napoleon was defeated, they put Louis XVIII in as king. Some revolution.
excellent point – the 1789 debacle which gave rise to Napoleon and left Europe in wars from 1789 until 1815 – 26 years of warfare
The French Revolution was a failure. It led to millions of deaths and the rise of Napoleon and Napoleonic Wars. After Napoleon's defeat, France was in ruins and a new King was put in charge by the Alliance. The US and Latin America Revolutions are better models for the Syrians to follow. Also as some one mentioned earlier, the Russian revolution started in their capitol which was Petrograd or St Petersburg at the time, not Moscow.
How is Syria different from the other Arab countries mentioned? None of their so-called democratic revolutions has resulted in democracy, only more violence, repression and anarchy. You cannot have successful democracy in this part of the world: they don't understand it, they don't understand its principles or how it works. When they don't like who is in power or their policies they assassinate people and blow themselves up in the market place. Martha Gellhorn was right: they have no ideals or principles; they only know hate and killing.
I am Syrian, and I support Assad because the alternative will be hell for us. So shut your mouth, neither you or CNN represent us!
How much more like hell can it get? If Assad kills your family, maybe that will motivate you?
SIr (or madam), I agree that CNN doesn't represent you, because it sure doesn't represent me, but CNN does have a right to comment upon what is going on inside Syria.
Freedom of expression is important in the western world and we all like to voice our opinions. We like to criticize our governments and even the cultures we live in. And we get to do so free of government harrassment. We protest policies we don't like and so long as we don't start overturning cars and damaging property, the government leaves us alone. If enough of us put enough pressure on our government, change can happen, wars can end, laws can be made (or repealed).
I hope one day Syrians can do the same, because what is going on now is completely unacceptable. The hardest thing to do in a free society is to tolerate the one person you would devote your life to fighting against, but that's what we do in the West. I have particular issues with the people at the opposite end of the political spectrum than I am at, but believe me when I tell you, if my government began to kill those people, I would stand up and fight for them. They have a right to disagree with me and they have a right to express their opinions, just like me.
You are supporting the dictator, the children killer, and I would prefer the hill rather than this brutal regime.
You sir are correct. They don't represent you. However here, unlike your counry and most of the rest of the non-western world, discussion, dessent and opinion are freely shared and that makes us who we are. Even those of you who wish only our money and wealth while you jam your philosophy down our throats are welcome to post, and promote your beliefs and comment. In fact these particular post are better informed and educated than most. enjoy
As much as I dislike Assad, I would like to know the alternative before pressing the button ...
what a model to follow – 3 tries – 1789, 1830, and 1848 – and the French still have not quite got it right. The author also fails to mention the current republic is number 5.
By the way Mr Author – each revolt was centered in Paris – the rest of France was neutral
and 1789 was based on reasons quite different from the reasons for 1830, and 1848
Still don't see the comparison of the Western Political Establishments to people who never tasted freedom (i.e Arab World). In addiiton, the lame attempts by uneducated writers who keep throwing comparisons of the enlightened West to the depostic East against the wall to see what sticks
pathetic
you fail Mr Author
Mr Bilal Y. Saab – where is the Arab League? Where is the Red Crescent? Where, sir, where?
The same went for London, Berlin, Moscow and other European capitals where the relative concentration of elites...
clueless author – knows nothing about the evolution – not revolution – that took place in London and Berlin
as for Moscow – ????? – Try St Petersburg
and what other European capitals? name them Mr Uneducated Author
This revolution will not get wide support until the religious minorities (Chrstians & Alawites) are guaranteed that they will be protected by the majority sunni opposition. The religious minorities sees what happened to them in Egypt and Iraq. They DON'T want that to happen in Syria.
Also, the fact that Turkey is supporting the opposition causes a lot of the religious minorites to be wary of the opposition. They remember the Ottoman Empire's brutality! Therefore this won't get wide support from the Syrian population. Actually Syria treats its religious minorities better than Turkey.
Syria is more progressive than other countries in the Middle East. Females aren't forced to wear hijabs or scarves.
The West and Gulf states (sunni countries) are supporting the rebellion. It does because it wants Iran & Russia out.
Joe what you said is 100% correct.
All these people commenting here have been brainwashed by the western media seeing the rebels as a progressive force, when in actuality they are financed and supported by the Middle Eastern repressive sunni establishment who have an agenda against the Allawite Assad dynasty.
All the Arab spring revolutions so far have resulted in an Islamic form of governments where the ultimate destination is Sharia law and elimination of all the religious and ethnic minorities and eliminate the women rights in Syria. See Egypt where the 10% Coptic minority after the so called democratic uprising is living in a terrorized state. In a short time women's rights have been curtailed.
As for Turkey supporting the rebels it is due to self interest and their fear of the Kurdish minority in Syria.By throwing their support to the Sunni dominated rebellion they are supporting their Arab coreligionists and if they take power they expect them to neutralize the Kurdish element within Syria.
The opposition needs to get organized and start doing hit and run attacks behind the lines at Army bases, ammo dumps, etc.
What they should learn from the French Revolution is the facts:
The progressives/atheists gained control and cutt everyon'e heards off.
They abolished the Catolic Church
Napolean came into power
He re-installed the Catholic Chucrh as the State Church.
The French then went on a long string of getting their b-tts kicked in every war since then.
the Syrian people are a bit smarter than the ones in Lybia, look what is going on in Lybia? Look whats going on in Iraq, Avghanistan and more and more. That is why Syrian people do not fully support the opposition, we bombed Libia and left, now they are killing each other.
Assad is a walking dead man. The only real questions are how many are going to die before he does, and what is going to replace his brutal dictatorship.
The real problem behind Middle East is the oil. China is becoming a giant and USA is afraid of China development and growth. China needs oil to keep such growth and Iran is one of its main supplers as Lybia used to be. Syria is a threat because is not a Western ally as Saudi Arabia. Furthermore Russia has an important base in Syria plenty of warships to keep the balance of powers in the Mediterranean Sea. So, Syria has to be invaded first to remove political and militar barriers in order to ensure the success of a war against Iran. That is the truth. Syria government is lesser evil compared to Louis XVI of France. What should be done with Bassar Al-Assad (president of Syria), execute him as the absolute monarch Louis XVI? or kill him as president Gadafi of Lybia? Oh, please...
In order to teach Syria anything, it has to want to learn. It doesn't. That's the end all and be all of Syria. (And Most of the Middle East)
Syrians will not fail to support their president despite the whole conspiracy from the united nations front.
To gain international credibility the rebels should clear the impression they are not the wahabized Sunni militants some people claim them to be.This is important because of what has been happening in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi.
This is the most stupid clueless article! The 1789 Paris revolution started with a mob taking a royal prison in Paris that had practically no one imprisoned. The mob subsequently proceeded to Versailles outside of Paris and took the King himself prisoner. All this happened because the ruling class was not even aware a revolution was ocurring and weren't even attempting to suprress it and didn't even defend themselves from it. The mob then started a reign of terror the likes of which the world has rarely seen. France did not recover fully from this event until "La Cohabitation" in the 1980's under Mitterand and Chirac, 200 years later!
Isn't all more complicated than that? Syria is a long time friend of Russia. No one goes into Syria to help unless Russia say so just like no one goes to North Korea unless China says so. Israel doesn't even want a change in Syria because its better to have the present Syria than an Iran style one. The Jews don't dont want changes and the Russians dont want it either. That is why the killing continues. Oh yes and there is no OIL in Syria or the west would be there in a second.
You sound cynical but probably realistic.
I think right now is that if what happened in Syria goes like what happened in the French Revolution, very soon the extremists will take over and we end with a bloodbath with a HUGE number of innocent dying after being branded "enemies of the state." (People who have read up on the Reign of Terror after the initial French Revolution noted nearly 30,000 French citizens were killed this way.) This is what I fear from Syria–an regime filled with Islamic extremists perverting the teachings of the Qu'ran to justify in effect large-scale genocide.
The US could remember the France of 1789, as well. I would like to see the Occupy Movement have a National Convention, form a Committee of Public Safety, and start naming names.
the occupy movement is runing out of steam, creditability and has never had leadership or agenda and most importantly no support from the rank and file military and gun owners. give them a Robspierre first, thengive them crditability....
"Indeed, it was Paris’s mobilizations that granted French citizens (and Europeans) their most precious rights." +++++ Bull. Even the Mozart's wrote about how astonished they were with the rights of Englishmen in London during the 1760's. The Paris mobilizations never approached that.
I just finished reading "War and Peace" and The Penninsular War and couple more books on Napoleon and the French Revolution. The changes in society where going on anyways, despite all the wars.
Syria is unlike any of these. The sole unifying factor of Syrians is it's government. Either it must account for it's actions or it will consume itself. I'm guessing the government will consume itself.
And if the Syrian government, in your words, consumes itself, what would be next?
Stop lying.
Hilary has promoted US military intervention into Syria.
I no longer value your alleged news reporting.
You are nothing more than a "Tokyo Rose" for CNN.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/secretary-of-state-hillary-clinton-calls-for-action-on-syria/story-e6frg6so-1226257930369
Do not elect a leader 4' 11! He'd be a war monger and just as corrupt!
'If you had been a nicer King, we wouldn"t do a thing, but you were bad you must admit.
We're gonna take you and the queen, down to the guillotine, and shorten you a little bit.'
Finally, a reasonably accurate assessment. What sets Syria apart is the fact that there are substantial groups which are not/do not see themselves as having any interest in the rebel actions at this time. Indeed, may even see/have reason to believe the rebels would threaten them. The studied avoidance by individuals such as Michel Kilo etc of the current opposition crop is telling. So there is no universal popular uprising at this time, and may never be.
The so called uprising or revolutions have brought nothing but disorder, Egypt is in reverse mode right now with radical Islamist's taking hold of a country that was once a US ally briefly, i can rest assure you once this is done and they take control, the western countries should not be surprised to find themselves dealing with another Islamic nation like Iran in Egypt. Libya is slowly sliding into sectarian conflict and there is no signs of orderliness in the Libyan society..As for Syria, the uprising will crushed and if the western powers intervene by arming the rebels, Iran, Russia and China will arm Syrian regime to the tooth, they will also support certain sects..this is a very dangerous situation for the middle east peace.
And what has Israel learned from the 1948 war? Apparently Israel believes that the success it had in that war and subsequent successes it has had against insurgents in the Middle East through the years literally predicts its potential for success in a war against Iran. But the reality is that a superior military doesn't guarantee you victory in an unpredictable war. We learned that in Vietnam and Iraq and we are still learning that in Afghanistan ten years later.
From what I I have understood from what the Israeli government has publicly reported is that they intend to use their German built nuclear submarines for amphibious assaults which would include landing troops on the shores of Iran to go after and destroy Iran's military installations such as surface to air missiles to make way for their air assault on Iran's nuclear facility. Fine! But is Israel also prepared for an amphibious invasion by Iranian forces on the other hand? Sure Israel has nuclear submarines that can be used in an amphibious assault on Iran but likewise, Iran has several Soviet built Kilo Class stealth submarines that can be used in an amphibious invasion of Israel also.
And what about Iran's distinctive 55th Airborne Divuision which was used in the war with Iraq? Is Israel prepared for a airborne assault or for an invasion of a very large and powerful Islamic army that is more than half a million strong? Let's face it, in a conventional war between Iran and Israel, both sides would suffer enormous casualties but moreover, it would be a whole lot more easier for a very large country like Iran in mass and population to engulf and invade a small country like Israel. And if Israel is being beat, would it resort to the use of its nuclear weapons?
It must also be noted that if Israel was to attack Iran unprovoked, then if Iran was to get the upper hand in such a war, no one internationally would have justifiable grounds to accuse Iran of war crimes or whatever Iran might do if it were to get the upper hand in such a conflict. There's a saying better be careful what you wish for! Well, I just hope Isreal takes a deep breath and look at our history and our setbacks in Vietnam, Iraq and now Afghanistan and keep in mind that a superior military doesn't always guarantee you victory! Then perhaps they would stop beating the war drums and just chill and give peace a chance!
Finally, some have tried to compare an Israeli/Iran conflict to the both wars between the US and Iraq, claiming that the Iraqi military was rendered obselete in a short period of time! However, I just hope you people realize that this war won't be between the US and Iran but between Israel and Iran. And unless Israel uses nuclear weapons, in a drawn out war, Israel would eventually loose simply because unlike the 1948 war, Iran is armed to a tee and their military is enormous. So Israel, its your bluff!
They learned a better way to attack USS Liberty. Look it up.
Didn't they name a car after the author of this article???
Da whole ting can be explained like dis see. Da Yanks and Da Ruskies still rule the turf. Since da cold war. Talk of democracy is a crock. Why ya tink dees guys been in power since donkeys ages? Cuz da Yanks got their dictators and the ruskies got ders. America don't care a bit about democracy. An da Ruskies never did cuz de is a dictatory ship see. Syria is Russian turf and Egypt is American turf. Both get dough from each side so de does what dey suppose to. Egypt gets 1 and a half billion smackers and Israel gets 3 billion each year. Also talk of revolution is right but it is a revolution against NOT THEIR DICTATORS as much as a revolution against the russians and the americans because these guys are all in the pay of russians or americans. They are the proxy rulers of these places and we pay them to do what we want dem too see. America never cared a rats you know what for democracy for these places. They need a strong man who will crack the whip in these countries and keep their people in line. All of this stuff is hip hop hocracy dude. Why do we do it ?? To get the Doe Ra Me get my drift ?? Oil is the Dough. ( its only now that the revolutions can't be stopped that America is running to the front of the parade) The reason Syria is a hot potato is because A) it has only a drop or two of oil B) It's Russia's client state and America as strong as it is knows it should anger Russia as we have been trying to cultivate it as an friend ( who's rockets do americans fly on as they go into space?) And Israel perfers the present Syria (better the devil you know than the one you dont) to a Syria that is under control of a radical muslim ruler. Revolution is in the air and this is all about throwing off the controlers of the regions America and Russia. The dangerous problem is there are a lot worse guys waiting in the wings,-some better as well --but one suspects the worse ones may win. Nobody reads any of this stuff any way. Anything longer than one sentence and the attention deficit disorders set in. An dats da name of dat tune.
Its time to carpet bomb syria. I bet that creates jobs in America. Let that be a lesson to the Sultan's around the world. Killing your own people is not acceptable.
I remember quite well the hundred thousand Syrians in the streets of Damascus cheering wildly for the news of the destruction of 9-11, I hope they bomb each other back into the Dark Ages. It is not right that the suffering of children has to occur for anyone to take or keep power, but such is the brutal reality of supporting a murderous leader. Muslims have no real value on human life and the Arab Spring is a good example of how much they hate each other, never mind us Westerners. All in a good days worship!!! Dangerous hypocrisy, I say. Now they've made their bed, lay in it.
The African Spring brought regime change.
The Arab Spring brought disappointment.
All the "experts" tried to lump them both together.
But history is written on the streets, not dictated by a college focus group.
Anyone that had actually set foot in those countries knew they would play out differently.
we must stop this evil before it is too late, remember HITLER......
those shiia thugs have no value for life...they are killers with stupid thyology of islam the shiia are cult and
they breed evil, now they are killing there own people in syria UN MUST ACT, THEY ACTED ON LIBYA IN NO TIME AND THEY DID IT IN IRAQ , WHILE IN LIBYA AND IRAQ IT WAS ONLY FEW HUNDEREDS WERE KILLED NOW WE HAVE MORE THAN 12,000 CEVILIANS KILLED AND MURDERED BY BASHAR AL KALB IN SYRIA BY IRAN MONEY AND RUSSIAN ARMS, we must sanction russia and get red of all the embassies and cut any deals with them.
arm the resistant to fight russians on there land,and fight iran and syrians thugs we must not stand silenet when we see evil at action.
يا أبناء شعبنا الصابر
يا أبناء امتنا العربية
منذ أن أُبتُلي العراق بالاحتلال الأميركي الصهيوني الفارسي البغيض نفذ المحتلون وحلفائهم الأشرار وعملائهم الأخساء سلسلة من عمليات الإبادة للشعب العراقي كانت حصيلتها اكثر من مليون ونصف المليون شهيد عراقي ، فضلاً عن ملايين الجرحى والمعوقين وخمسة ملايين مهجر ، ناهيكم عن عمليات التجويع والإفقار والحرمان من الخدمات بل وتدمير العراق أرضاً وشعباً وحضارةً واقتصاداً ، حيث شُلت الصناعة والزراعة وأستحوذ السراق من العملاء على التجارة والخدمات ووظفوها في خدمة مصالحهم الخاصة .
وبسبب ذلك كله والانهيار الأمني المريع فقد تتالت التفجيرات الإجرامية وغطًت أيام الأسبوع كله ، والتي سميت كلها بالأيام الداميات والتي تكررت فيها التفجيرات الدامية وآخرها وليس أخيرها تفجيرات يوم الخميس الثالث والعشرين من شباط الجاري والتي راح ضحيتها المئات من الشهداء والجرحى في بغداد وصلاح الدين وبابل ونينوى وديالى وكركوك وبقية محافظات العراق .
وكانت وما زالت وستبقى التفجيرات الإجرامية المتتابعة في العراق لطخة عار صارخة في جبين حكومة المالكي العميلة التي استمرأت عمليات ذبح الشعب العراقي بهذه التفجيرات الإجرامية والاغتيال بالكواتم وحملات الاعتقالات الغاشمة الواسعة النطاق المصحوبة بالقمع والتعذيب الوحشي ، والتي شملت الآلاف من المناضلين البعثيين وضباط وطياري وضباط صف الجيش العراقي الباسل وأبناء شعبنا الأبي في الشهور الأربعة الماضية والمضافة الى مئات الآلاف من المعتقلين على امتداد سنوات الاحتلال البغيض .
يا أبناء شعبنا المكافح
لقد حاول العميل المالكي وبطانته الشريرة استثمار ظروف هزيمة المحتلين الاميركان بفعل الضربات القاصمة والعمليات الجبارة لمجاهدي البعث والمقاومة بالإفصاح عن عمالته المباشرة لإيران الصفوية التي سلمها المحتلون الاميركان خسئوا العراق ، فراح هذا العميل الصغير المالكي يُصَعد من عملياته القمعية ونهب جلاوزته لثروات وأموال الشعب العراقي وتجنيد ( الميليشيات الإرهابية المرتبطة به مباشرة ) لتكريس سلطته القمعية الديكتاتورية في محاولة بائسة لتجاوز هزيمة العملية السياسية المخابراتية بهزيمة صناعها المحتلين الاميركان عبر تصعيد عمليات التصفية والاحتراب بين أطراف هذه العملية ، والتي بلغت ذروتها عبر فبركة الجرائم وتحميل هذه الأطراف مسؤوليتها والإمعان في شل أجهزة الدولة التي دمرها المحتلون وتعطيل حركة الحياة في ميادينها الاقتصادية والاجتماعية والسياسية والثقافية كلها .
وقيادة قطر العراق لحزب البعث العربي الاشتراكي إذ تستنكر ممارسات حكومة المالكي العميلة المدانة كلها فأنها تستنكر بشدة التفجيرات الإجرامية المتواصلة ، وتحمل هذه الحكومة العميلة المسؤولية الكاملة عنها بوضعها تحت قصاص الشعب العادل الذي لن يصبر طويلاً على جرائم المالكي وزمرته العميلة ، وسيواصل نضاله وثورته العارمة وحتى التقويض الكامل للعملية السياسية المخابراتية التي راح أطرافها يتلهون بمناوراتهم الخائبة دائرين ظهورهم لأبناء شعبنا الأبي الذي يرسفون في معاناتهم القاسية عبر اللعب على النغمات النشاز من قبيل السعي المحموم لعقد ما لم يتفقون على تسميته من قبيل ( المؤتمر ) أو ( الملتقى ) أو ( الاجتماع ) ، فالجميع يعتقدون واهمين أنهم يكسبون الوقت على حساب معاناة أبناء شعبنا الصابر الذي لم ولن يَبُت على ضيم وإنما يُواصل جهاده الملحمي وحتى الإسقاط النهائي للعملية السياسية المخابراتية وإقامة حكم الشعب التعددي الديمقراطي الشعبي المستقل والعادل ويمضي قُدماً على طريق النهوض والتقدم الحضاري والإنساني الشامل .
وإن غداً لناظره قريب .
Retired businessman Christopher Tappin had said he was leaving the UK feeling he had fewer rights than a terrorist.
Mr Tappin, 65, from London, is being flown from Heathrow Airport to El Paso, Texas, escorted by US marshals.
British judges say the extradition is lawful and the European Court of Human Rights has refused to intervene.
Mr Tappin, of Orpington, south-east London, has fought against extradition through the British courts after being charged in the US with conspiring to export batteries which could be used in Hawk air defence missiles.
He faces a trial in El Paso and a possible 35-year jail sentence – but says that he is the victim of entrapment.
Mr Tappin's lawyer, Karen Todner, said it was "very likely" her client would now enter into a plea agreement to reduce a sentence.
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Lawyer Karen Todner: "He will be wearing an orange jumpsuit and handcuffs"
"If Mr Tappin does not enter into a plea agreement and is found guilty he will have to serve the whole sentence in America, which may actually effectively be the rest of his life, rather than serving a sentence in the UK, therefore I think it's very very likely that he will enter into a plea agreement," she said.
Last week the European Court of Human Rights refused to intervene in his case. Mr Tappin, a former president of the Kent Golf Society, was ordered to present himself to Heathrow Airport to be taken to the US for trial.
He was seen departing from his house around 08:00 GMT and arrived at Heathrow police station accompanied by his wife Elaine.
Shortly after 10.30am, Mr Tappin's lawyer said British extradition officers had taken Mr Tappin to a plane where he was being handed over to US marshals. The flight was due to land in Texas around 16:00 local time (23:00 GMT).
"He will be arriving in El Paso this afternoon. He will be appearing in court on Monday morning, so he will be in custody over the weekend." The earliest he could be granted bail would be Thursday or Friday, Ms Todner said.
She urged Home Secretary Theresa May to help Mr Tappin intervene with the US authorities to ensure they did not object to bail being granted.
Ms Todner later wrote on Twitter: "Mr Tappin has left for America. Was v distressing when he said goodbye. The extradition treaty is inhumane."
Arriving at the airport, Mr Tappin told reporters it was "a shame, a disgrace" that he was being extradited.
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iran must be attacked, iran is not a muslim country, all the muslims 1 billion are sunni and the shiia are only 150 milions iran 65 millions are not all muslims , they have 10 million sunni and 5 million kurds, and 3 million christeans and jews etc...iran is evil and we dont consider them muslims. teh shiia cult is a devil worship called almahdi he the son of lusefer the devil
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