By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
The situation in Syria is spiraling downward. The country is inching towards full scale civil war. Violence is increasingly sustained and the Syrian regime seems unable to stop the opposition.
At the same time, we are watching an open Cold War between Saudi Arabia and Iran with Syria as the battle ground. The Saudi King publicly said (and, remember, the Saudis are very reluctant to say things publicly) to the Russian President that any dialogue with Syria is "futile" - that we need to push the regime of Bashar al-Assad out. The Iranians, on the other side, are warning the outside world against intervening in Syria.
This is all a huge security boon for Israel. Iran - the country that Israel views as its principle threat in the region - is finding itself in a very weakened position because it chose to go all-in on Syria. Iran made the decision to simply to back the Syrian regime no matter what and now they're getting further and further isolated. The Russians have stopped publicly speaking out in favor of Syria. The Chinese have never been very vocal. And the Iraqis, who had initially taken a relatively supportive position, have retreated.
The Iranians are almost alone in supporting the Syrian regime now and this leaves them suffering humiliation and enormous cash outflows to support this regime. At the end of the day, Iran is backing a sinking ship. It seems highly unlikely that two years from now al-Assad will be in power.
In addition to that, the Iranians are feeling the pressure of sanctions and further isolation. I think that U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, was right to say that this would not be a prudent time to attack Iran. Doing so would completely change the debate. Right now, the discussion revolves around Iran’s support of Syria. If Iran is attacked, it would transform the debate into one about a western-supported attack on a Muslim country. It would completely change Iran's political and military calculus. At the very least, now would seem to be the wrong time to strike Iran.
Meanwhile, we are seeing Yemen's leader Ali Abdullah Saleh finally leaving office, potentially auguring a period of instability in Yemen. Outside of the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, Yemen has had probably the strongest al Qaeda cells in the world. This is something to watch very carefully.
The Obama Administration has been inclined to play a balancing act in Yemen of supporting a democratic transition while also trying not to isolate President Saleh who has been very cooperative on counterterrorism. We’ll see if that balancing act can continue as a new regime comes to power.
In Afghanistan you have the reoccurrence of perhaps an inevitable phenomenon - lots of troops in a country where they are not as familiar with cultural sensitivities. Things go wrong that inflame local passions and nationalism.
And in Egypt, you have the trial of the nineteen Americans.
I'm struck at how in this one week you have seen – from Afghanistan to Yemen to Syria to Iran to Egypt – all these places at a boil. One reason for this, I suspect, is that oil is at over $105 a barrel. This adds to a very tense situation where any one of the places could spill over into something even more serious.
principal threat – not principle threat; where are your copy editors?
Where have you been Fareed? Me thinks the Middle East has been boiling over since spring. You know, when we haters over here told you exactly what would happen in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. I seem to remember that we Conservatives were ignored. Wishful thinking and ill-advised optimism got us where we are now. US troops in 4 African countries. Plus Afghanistan and Iraq. Looks like a World War to me. We just haven't started calling it that yet.
They don't like gays in Iran so I hate them. wsm_marathoner
Iran will insure that this is a complete mess as to lessen the attention to themselves/not possible, but they are the greater percentage of the cancer. Russia and China however are not the catalyst as one is lead to believe. The stove is on medium High and will boil over as soon as the heat is increased by Iran via the Iraqi border.
not a good time to attack Iran? no time should be a good time to attack Iran. It would mean massive loss of life, destabilization, and a huge swell in anti-American sentiments. Our own intelligence secretary says Iran isn't pursuing nuclear weapons yet, but may start considering it if they keep getting backed into a corner. Iran has no military power that it can successfully exert outside the region, so what are they supposed to do if we do intervene in Syria? Invade Iraq? a coalition force would run them back behind their borders within weeks. Enough with the preemptive strikes! They cause far more death and destruction than the regime in question ever could.
strike now while they're weak. blow them all to smithereens and be rid of Iran once and for all.
What Zakaria didn't bring into this article, that he has written about before, is the probable reactions of Lebanese Hezbollah to the unfolding events in Syria, and with Iran. Will a Sunni takeover of Syria, lead by Sunni takfiri extremists, be tolerated by neighbouring Shi'ite Lebanese Hezbollah, without touching off a huge reaction? Doubtful. Will Hezbollah try to take over Lebanese government? Will they send fighters into Syria to aide their allies, the Al Asad regime? Will they get into open warfare with Israel because of actions they may take? While the Syrian diaspora is not that large or influential, the Lebanese diaspora cover the globe, and remain very connected to Lebanon, and Hezbollah.
Will they boil over? Has anyone been watching anything for the past year? It is way beyond that description. And it will become something quite different going forward. There will be a breif period of fundamentalist rule followed by poverty and then more civil war. Those nations which have oil might fare better than most, if they can get it to market amid the gunfire. This is not going to quite be a Caliphate.
We have no reason to be there.Period. Bring the troops home.
Bring the troops home and watch them duke it out from afar. Let them wipe each other out.
Assad is finished, the idiot leaders (so called Leaders) of Iran know it too, but they need to keep Assad and his thugs in power for an obvious reason, they will be next to be brought down.
"One reason for this, I suspect, is that oil is at over $105 a barrel." One more reason that you, Fareed, are more suitable for being a foreign policy adviser or the successor to Obama – after Obama's second term.
You are right in pointing out the part of crude oil plays in a crude world containing an even cruder powerful elite. Will you admit this: The world's problems are caused by GREED, pure and simple, and oil is a means to controlling nations and feeding that GREED?
Fareed, the greatest threat to humanity is the 30,000 children who died today due to preventable diseases. It is the millions in hunger. The millions in poverty, willing and able to work, but for whom work will not come. The thousands fighting wars to feed this greed with its daily supply of human blood, flesh and bones.
Could you please start writing about the deeper problems of the world and your fellow humans and their threats to existence? After all, we all breathe the same air, we all love our children.
Mass destruction is a already happening to people. But there are no sanctions, no censure. Maybe it is sanctioned – who knows?
Hemorroid of the world!!!!!!!
it's too bad that Israel doesn't have any oil. That would take the sting out of the high prices. The one good US ally would have no problem keeping the price low because they would see the benefits.
I had a dream! And it was horrible. For 3 days i had an intense headache and could hear the screams of billions of people world wide and feel there fear. So this is what i dreamt. Iran is what we think but is not going to do what we think alone. In this dream Iran, Russia and another country that acts as one of our allies (or so pretends to be and stays very neurtral and quite) will create a nuclear bomb together. while this is being plotted another war will start and the USA will be mislead to a place to start this war. We will send as many of our troops there as possible. this will be our downfall. this is when the 3 countries have put together one big bomb to kill as many usa troops as possible in one chunk exploding this horrific bomb. Worse yet Iran will state that we were going to bomb iran and that this bomb went off by our own mistake and it was ours, when it was actually planned the whole time from these 3 countries. From here total nuclear war will break out amongs all countries killing 4.5 billion people. God help us all. we need to pull out of everywhere and be neutral like china before this happens. do my dreams come true,,yes. only this one will i tell the world and warn them.
Such junk journalism! As if the rising price of oil is a cause of all the tension! Nonsense. The tension has everything to do with Islam: the aggressive Shiites in the Islamic Republic of Iran who have more military power than the other Moslem countries and who are about to get nuclear weapons; and the Sunnis, who are actually taking power all over the Arab countries from Morocco to Yemen, with Syria in the wings. Both the Shiites and the Sunnis are fanatic supporters of the basic doctrines of Islam which requjire Moslems to make permanent war on non-Moslems until Islam reigns supreme in the world. They may hate one another, but they both hate us. We need to let them, even encourage them, to fight one another. The whole world will be better for it - not just Israel.
BAHAHAHAHAHA Iraqis retreating!? If I had a nickel...
attack this evil iranians and get red of those thugs, they are funding every terrorists in the world from afriac to hamas to hizboallah to libyan revolutions to al qayeda, to syrian bashar al asad, to noril al haleki of iraq, to al dawa part in iraq, to al qodos army and mahid militia in iraq to asyeb ahel al haq and to latin america....
Until Iran has a nuke and is pointing at us and we have no evidence otherwise, the U.S. needs not to start another speculation game as we did with Iraq and the quest for weapons of mass destruction, and disabled the entire Middel East with our actions. Protect our Borders and Solvency and let Natural selection and Darwinism prevail. War is a necessary tool of last resort, and our military is one of this nations most important resources, and not be waisted on fighting for bottom feeder nations that will never stop their behavior patterns as proven for the last 2000 years. The end.
Let it be Russia and China's problem as response to their veto's in the U.N.. We need to take care of ourselves first. I could care less if the entire Middle East went up in smoke. They can't police themselves or ever act repsonsible, we the U.S. can't be their baby sitter any longer. So put up or shut up! U.S. needs to stop playing the worlds policeman, anyone we try to help turns on us and a waist of our military and tax money. Blah Blah Blah
If we look back in History the Middle East has been at war going back 1000 years or more and will continue to be at war for another 1000 years., It has become the normal way of life for them, We can hope that they will come to peace terms but it is not realistic until they kill each other off or go back to the stone age. and most of it is religious belief. It is time for the world to just stand back and say do what you want we are not going to stop you and we are not going to help you either and when you are ready we will welcome you back into the world but don't expect the world to rebuild you.
Since when do Free Syrian Army Rebels take time out of fighting to pose for a CNN Propaganda Photo?
Fareed writes "I'm struck at how in this one week you have seen - from Afghanistan to Yemen to Syria to Iran to Egypt - all these places at a boil. One reason for this, I suspect, is that oil is at over $105 a barrel."
Fareed, what is this? None of the problems you have described is because of the price of oil at $105.
In Afghanistan, it is the burning of the Qur'an, not the price of oil at $105.
In Syria, it is the veto of the UN resolution which has given a green light for Assad to do the bloodshed. It has nothing to do with the price of the oil at $105.
In Yemen, the political situation has nothing to do with the price of oil at $105.
And in Egypt also, it has more to do with military rule than the price of oil at $105.
In Iran, the reason is the nuclear stand off, and not the price of oil at $105.
In all these cases Fareed misses to read the cause and effect properly and assumes the effect is the reason for the cause. After reading a few of the articles Fareed has written about the middle east, it is clear that he does not have the ability to do an in depth analysis of any of the situations in the middle east. He just grabs a headline from here, a headline from there, and puts together a hodgepodge article which lacks in substance and is full of fluff and complete nonsense.
Why is it that all the problems in the world are related to Islamic countries. Syria, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and the list goes on. Fareed Zakaria, write an article about why the Islamists of the world are the cause of all the problems.
The Global Public Square is where you can make sense of the world every day with insights and explanations from CNN's Fareed Zakaria, leading journalists at CNN, and other international thinkers. Join GPS editor Jason Miks and get informed about global issues, exposed to unique stories, and engaged with diverse and original perspectives.
Every week we bring you in-depth interviews with world leaders, newsmakers and analysts who break down the world's toughest problems.
CNN U.S.: Sundays 10 a.m. & 1 p.m ET | CNN International: Find local times
Buy the GPS mug | Books| Transcripts | Audio
Connect on Facebook | Twitter | GPS@cnn.com
Buy past episodes on iTunes! | Download the audio podcast
Check out all of Fareed's Washington Post columns here:
Obama as a foreign policy president?
Why Snowden should stand trial in U.S.
Hillary Clinton's truly hard choice
China's trapped transition
Obama should rethink Syria strategy
Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.
RSS - Posts
Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.
Join 4,855 other followers