Editor's Note: Matthew Rojansky is the deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
By Matthew Rojansky - Special to CNN
Waiting for the returns from Sunday’s Russian presidential elections was a bit like watching a lopsided football game at a Las Vegas sports bar - everyone knew who was favored to win, but what really mattered was the spread.
On the gridiron of Russian presidential politics, Vladimir Putin was the heavy favorite and he did not disappoint. Despite months of anti-regime protests and a relatively transparent voting process, Putin appears to have won well above 60% of the vote, with a respectable turnout of just over 56%. This means that Putin will not only return to the Kremlin in May, but will claim a mandate to govern based on the will of the Russian people. As in sports betting, this outcome promises a big payoff for some, and a long, cold winter for others.
So who were the winners and losers after Sunday’s blowout?
The Winners:
Putin: Clearly the MVP of the season, Putin has proven himself the indispensable man in Russian politics. From the declaration that he would seek the Presidency in September to his refusal to participate in televised debates, Putin set the rules for this contest, and spared no effort to make sure he would win it convincingly. Putin has often compared himself to Tsar Nicholas II’s authoritarian but reformist Prime Minister Pyotr Stolypin. With this new mandate, he has the opportunity to follow Stolypin’s example and deliver on promises to root out corruption and backwardness while deploying the full coercive power of the state against his critics.
Dmitri Medvedev: After years of speculation as to the true nature of Russia’s leadership “tandem,” Medvedev removed all doubt last September when he personally called upon Putin to stand for the Presidency, and promised his own loyal support. That loyalty will surely be rewarded. Putin may be many unsavory things, but he is a man of his word, and he has promised that Medvedev will be Prime Minister. How long Medvedev lasts in that job depends in part on how the economy performs - the Prime Minister oversees state industries and the budget - and in part on whether protests continue, which might cause Putin to seek a scapegoat.
The Oligarchs: Despite the poor showing by “independent” presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov, one of Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs, he and his neighbors on the Forbes list of Russian billionaires stand to profit handsomely under a new Putin presidency. Putin makes no secret of his disgust for the crooked 1990’s privatization schemes that made Prokhorov and others rich, yet he has no intention of undoing the results. Putin’s message to the oligarchs is simple: make your money but stay out of politics. And they have done so, with the exceptions of Prokhorov, who is suspected to have run on Putin’s orders, and Mikhail Khodorkovsky who lost his company and is rotting in jail. The reward for the oligarchs’ obedience? Putin plans a new round of privatization worth some $50 billion over the next five years.
The Losers:
The Middle Class: The mere existence of a Russian middle class is, according to Putin, proof that his leadership has made life better for ordinary people. While it is true that many Russians live much better today than they did a decade ago, that prosperity is attributable largely to rising energy prices, high state spending, and the lingering effects of reforms undertaken during the 1990’s. Meanwhile, many in the middle class resent the privileges enjoyed by Putin’s retainers, chafe at restrictions on freedom of speech, and above all despise the corruption that pervades practically every level of business and public life in Russia today. If the price of oil returns to last decade’s highs, then decent wages, reliable state services, and freedom to travel are probably enough to keep the middle class busy - but take any one of those away, and the tens of thousands marching on Moscow’s streets could become millions.
Young people: Russia’s post-Soviet generation may be the biggest losers from Putin’s latest victory, but judging by the apparent indifference of the majority or the carnival antics of an outspoken few, their particular plight hasn’t sunk in yet. Think of it this way: If this year is the beginning of two more presidential terms for Putin–who is not yet 60 and could change the constitution to remove term limits altogether–today’s teens and twenty-somethings may be about to spend the best years of their lives in a modern version of the Brezhnev era. One key difference, of course, is that Russians now enjoy the freedom to emigrate, and if Putin’s return does bring Soviet-style stagnation, talented Russians young and old will continue to vote with their suitcases.
The United States: Putin ran a distinctly anti-American campaign and despite lingering goodwill from the 2009 “reset” it will be hard to bury the hatchet with Washington. The Kremlin has depicted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as a puppet master pulling the strings of Russian liberals and activists who seek to bring about a “color revolution,” or ignite a Libya-style civil war that can justify NATO intervention. Sure, Putin can come across as a bit paranoid, but that doesn’t mean America isn’t out to get him. In the run-up to a U.S. presidential contest, and with Congress preparing to debate granting Russia permanent normal trade relations when it joins the World Trade Organization later this year, there will be more than enough Russophobe rhetoric to go around. The relationship might go off the rails well before next November, since a NATO-Russia summit set for May in Chicago looks unlikely to break the current deadlock over missile defense, to which Putin has threatened a “disproportionate” response.
Some might say that Russia’s democracy is the biggest loser from Sunday’s contest. And indeed, despite a dolled-up veneer of campaigning, protests and counter-demonstrations, most Russians will admit that they only ever had one real choice. But even in his triumph, Putin faces serious challenges to keep Russia on track. And for the democratic opposition, there’s always next season.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Matthew Rojansky.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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oversimplified and over dramatized. Putin is no Brezhev and the Russian Federation is no USSR. The borders are open, the relations with most countries in the world diplomatic. Any young (or older) people who might feel uncomfortable in today's Russia are free to leave, free to apply for study and work in other countries.
The author fails to mention 2 things:
a. It is the young people who support Putin and the more conservative leaders like Zyuganov in today's Russia, having grown up in the extreme poverty and civil unrest of the 90s. the democrats like Yavlinsky, Nemtsov or even Prokhorov are mostly supported by the children of the real Brezhnev era, the 40-50 somethings, who've grown up and came to stand on their own feet in a police state, but a police state that gave them food, security, education, jobs, apartments, free daycare for children and socially oriented family policies like 3 years of maternal leave. It is no secret that strive for change, desire to take risk and thought of the big picture and the distant future come only once the immediate needs are satisfied. Those whose childhood and youth was brutally interrupted by everything around them sinking into violent chaos, anarchy, cut opportunities and possibilities outside the criminal underworld, the generations of the late 70s, 80s, early 90s have yet to dissociate the word "democracy" with murder, theft, robberies and watching the world around them falling into ruin.
b. The Moscow Middle class, a quite solid group wealthy enough to be compared with the middle class of Western European countries is limited to Moscow only and has not spread throughout Russia, it hasn't even spread as far as Saint Petersburg, where the living cost is higher than in any other Eastern or Central European city (including Prague, Warsaw and Athens) and the average salary is 600 USD. That's the general electorate Putin is dealing with, people who have just enough to get by to say they have something to lose in case of political turbulences, but not enough to grow bold and bored enough with the quasi authoritarian regime.
One more thing, Putin is hardly an enemy of the US. He might use a different rhetoric than what the West is used to politically, but he knows quite well how to stay afloat internationally and keep his country out of trouble. It would also be wrong to call him a nationalist, since he is (as opposed to his rival Prokhorov) quite pro-immigrant and pro-minorities.
Russia sees a continual decline of its population. The young will soon be a minority. The educated and the rich emigrate, if they can.
The population actually stabilized right now, thanks to some of the Putin's actions. Specifically, he put together a very strong monetary incentive for mother to have a second or more child - women of mid 30 no longer have to choose between having good working career and a child, and also he made maternal health care a national priority.
@AlexShch, population of Russians is still declining. Population of the country seems stable due to immigration from Asia and rapid breeding of non-russian families.
@NeoSHNIK: Yes, it is declining now (although only at 1/10 of the rate it was 10 years ago), and furthermore I expect that the decline will accelerate significantly one more time during the next 5 years starting right now. The reason is the GROSS underpopulation of the generation of people who are now 18 to 25 years old - these are who were born during the 1992...1997. Gross literally means that the number of kids graduating from the high school this and last year is only half of what is should be, or what it was 10 years before. The damage done is simply to great to fix is quickly - sorry to say it, but democracy is the most efficient contraceptive device ever invented.
My point is different: by stabilized I mean quite significant progress in lowering mortality (Russia now has the highest life expectancy in its history), and also in healthcare for mothers and children, and healthcare overall.
As far as immigration into Russia, it is steady and is mainly motivated by economic reasons. The government program of encouraging ethnic Russians living abroad and resettling in Russia is basically a failure: there is no significant impact.
Russian demographic trends are not different than those of Europe as a whole or of any other large European nation. Russia is not at the Middle East or Africa, that's for sure.
I have never been to Russia, yet my heart beats for your country and the Russian soul. Maybe I had read too much of your literature. I just wish your people well. .
Excellent analysis
You have not a clue what Putin will now do the mother Russia now.
Putin will now turn the Russian Federation into a modern day smaller version of CCCP again.
He has already combined all the power.
He has been increasing oil and gas exports.
Using that money to make the Military strong again.
Meanwhile the working class is having a very though life.
Mark my words this is the beginning of the end of a Free Russia.
Once KGB always KGB.
You comrade are a fool if you believe that Putin will make it better for everyone Russia.
Putin will make it into a Democratic Socialist country. Where he controls the democracy.
He has already started.
More interesting is to know who protestors like you would like to see as a president of Russia?
Please. Vladimir Putin is a two-bit thug. If he were genuinely so popular, he wouldn't need to resort to such blatant cheating in order to win re-election, nor would he feel the need to use the powres of the state to muzzle his political opposition.
He's a cheap little dictator. Nothing more. Every day more and more Russians are realizing this.
He didn't "really" cheat; he just hired ACORN to run the election for him. After all, they are the bastions of honesty, integrity and clean elections.
There is a lot of cheating about cheating and lots of fraud about a fraud. I've been at the polling stations more than once and I didn't see any of the horrors you can read about in the Western press.
Thank you. These are the realities well worth understanding. Most of the typical "news' in mainstream media about Russia sounds like a cartoon.
Now that Putin has soundly silenced his critics by his resounding victory, there are may pertinent questions he has to answer! How is he going to satisfy the Russian thirst for democracy, basic freedoms, decent jobs and reasonable standards of living? Bottled-up grudges would be counter-productive! The new President has to deliver. From now till his inauguration he has some breathing space in finding pragmatic answers to extremely difficult questions. Putin is indefatigable but he has to deliver! Russians want democracy, jobs, better living conditions... The list goes on and on ! Can Putin deliver?
(Pancha Chandra) Brussels
Why worry about Russia , Chandra ? Obama is not delivering anything except grief .
Either you're in the one percent, who the Republicans are doing everything in their power to protect through keeping the failed and unfair practices of the prior administration in place, or you're in the 99%, who Obama is doing many things to support and protect, but again, the Republican stonewall continues to push the rich further from the poor with ancient failed policy models like 'trickle down' and their ilk. So which are you?
Mike NJ
Your either under 25 or you have drank to much of the Left Wing Koolaide. Either way you should go with the being quiet make you seem smarter principle.
President Obama has shown astuteness in his dealings with Russia. In fact Russia has been side-lined! In fact Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, the architect of Obama's policies has not allowed Russia to dominate at all. There is no need for a cold war. Rather deft moves that keep the Russians silent and gussing!
President Obama has shown astuteness in his dealings with Russia. In fact Russia has been side-lined! In fact Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, the architect of Obama's policies has not allowed Russia to dominate at all. There is no need for a cold war. Rather deft moves that keep the Russians silent and guessing!
In his previous eight years in the office, Putin helped to improve living conditions in Russia tremendously. The flow of revenue from export of primary resourses was redirected from pockets of the few into pockets of millions. Look at the number of cars in individual ownership or sales of electronic appliances in Russia. It is better indicator of democracy that opinions of leftist European observers.
To stay with the facts, we still have to see a 64% approval rate of any kind in US and 99% economically enslaved people in Russia, or elsewhere for that matter, don't we? So, who is winning? Who is losing?
Американцы ВЫ ПОЛНЫЕ ДЕБИЛЫ. Считаете себя великой нацией, выше других, что вы сделали с ираком, ливией? почему в афганистане выросло производство наркотиков после вашего прихода? Почему вы судите своего солдата, который рассказал правду о убийстве мирных граждан в Ираке? Почему ваши солдаты ссут на трупы боевиков? Почему вы сжигаете коран? Почему вы лжете, что хотите демократии в Сирии, ведь это только геополитика и способ повлиять на Иран? Почему вы такие ограниченные ДЕБИЛЫ?
Это не демократия, это что-то другое. США уже всерьез считает себя вправе решать что такое демократия, а что не является демократией. Они решают, что в России Навальный – это оппозиция, они решают, что бандиты с оружием в Сирии – это оппозиция, они решают, что Россия вторглась в Грузию, а не Грузия в Абхазию, они решили, что США – это супер нация.
Такое уже было, с немцами, с французами. Те тоже слишком много решили на себя взять. Как говориться бог троицу любить, на очереди американцы.
ВЫ МЕНЯ УЖЕ ЗАЕБАЛИ, ДИБИЛОИДЫ
That wele Libyans, Afgan, Iraqi peoples who actually screwed their own countries.
Afgan demons plant hero1ne for weak-willed russians and europeans, not usa soldiers, Iraq demons explode each other cuz of they think people with other religious views should be exploded. Nor usa soldiers told them to do it, nor usa president.
Дебил здест ты когда приходишь на иностранный ресурс и начинаешь всех оскорблять. Иди по дрочи на путьку его друзей олигархов и нищих, обманутых стариков
Well said, Russian. I'd answer you in your own language but my keyboard has no cyrillic letters so I hve to reply in English, the irony here being that Russian is my favorite language. Moreover, we Americans do tend to have a superiority complex.
George
Everybody feels they and there country are bigger better and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. We Americans just have a overzealous media cheer leading it to the world for us.
I hope, Russian, that you understand my reply, in English. Yes , the things you describe are wrong , but we Americans are not responsible for the propaganda , not resposible for bad things that happen because our press is like Pravda was under Stalin, and our 'journalist's are like yours were during Stalin's rule. We are no more responsible as individulas than you are for your war in Afganistan. The 1% oligarchs rule our country and we are facing bancrupcy. We do not have a Democracy as we claim and our press attacks your country and its leaders because our elite would like to rule there , but can not.So no need to get angry at us.
Right to speak, you are also exercising your right to dribble ballyhoo all over the comment section.
Вы настоящий идиот. Это люди, как вы, которые дают всем нам плохую репутацию. Все, что вы можете это мусор Обсуждение и отрицательные.
Но ничего положительного ни о чем.
Вы не имеете понятия, что Путин теперь будет делать матери России. Как только КГБ всегда КГБ.
Американская имеет ничего общего с этим кошмаром, который только что у себя дома.
Вы товарищ дурак.
Ваня, а что бы сделали для России кроме словесного поноса?
Как быстро слетает иммигрантская вежливость, стоит услышать родное слово... Толпы дураков бегают по митингам, выкрикивая примитивные лозунги. Но никто, кроме Путина, пока не объяснил простому обывателю, откуда возьмётся курица в его кастрюле. А западным observers нужно научиться делить на десять все эти сверхэмоциональные заявы с любой стороны.
Democracy only works, if you are a majority. We try to promote the ideology of democracy in places where it obviously has backfired (Pakestan, West bank). Once people (UN) realize what they can do, they'll just vote US out. Why don't people realize that? We have to let others determine their own path and be responsible for their own concequences. We need to get off our moral "high horse", because we have many of our own issues we need to focus on.
ЗАВЕЩАНИЕ К СЫНУ
Когда хранишь покой среди смятений,
Среди теряющих себя людей,
Когда свободен от чужих сомнений,
Нe внемлешь правоте чужих идей,
Когда способен ждать, не уставая,
Иль, будучи оболганным, не лгать,
Иль, властию над гневом обладая,
Геройство напоказ не выставлять,
Когда рабом мечтаний не бываешь,
Когда благая мысль живёт в делах,
Когда триумф иль бедствие встречаешь
В сознании, что это – тленный прах,
Когда мужаешься, услышав правду,
Скривлённую в капкан для дураков,
Или глаза от краха веры страждут,
Но руки не пугаются трудов,
Когда всей честной жизни полный выйгрыш
Бросаешь враз на "решку" иль "орла",
И, проиграв, опять на пашню выйдешь,
Не плача, что удача не пришла,
Когда взнуздаешь сердце, нервы, жилы,
Но, провалившись в пропасть, взмоешь ввысь,
Держась за воздух за пределом силы,
Где только Воля говорит: "Держись!",
Когда в богатстве сохраняешь совесть,
В нужде не лицемеришь пред царём,
Когда ни враг, ни друг тебе не в горесть,
Когда все чтут тебя, не бья челом,
Когда мгновенье каждое умеешь
Наполнить смыслом до святых глубин,
Тогда Собой по праву ты владеешь,
И лишь тогда ты – человек, мой сын!
@RUSSIAN – "Американцы ВЫ ПОЛНЫЕ ДЕБИЛЫ"
The Americans you are referring to, are "we the people"
There is no question, we "Americans" have issues. No, it is not a "true" democracy.
But, where else on this planet, there is a place where people from all over the world live in peace without trying to kill one another? Why people still come here from all over the world? The "Americans" you are referring to are people that have come here from all over, including Russia, and made it their home. Again, it is not perfect, but it provides opportunities to those who want them. I feel sorry for those people, especially on fixed income, strugglin in Russia. But until Russians don't take responsbility for themselves and their future, without blaming the West, they will continue to suffer from theit own phobias and misconceptions. It is a shame, if we can not find a common ground and tear this world up, instea of making a better place for our children. I know, Russians love their children too.
Peace!
Да упадет завеса с глаз моих!
Пусть будет плоть прозрачна, голос тих,
Чтоб вечное расслышать и взглянуть
B саму неисчезающую Cуть,
Cвященную основу всех сердец,
Где я – творение и Я – Творец!
Я есть Любовь.
Безгласен, слеп и глух
Без образа творящий вечный Дух.
От века сущий, он творит любя
Глаза и уши, чтоб познать себя.
Я слышу голос, вижу блеск зари
И рвусь к любимой, но она – внутри.
И внутрь войдя, в исток спускаюсь вновь,
Bесь превратясь в безликую Любовь...
....И там, внутри, как в зеркале немом
Я узнаю ее в себе самом.
В той глубине, где разделенья нет,
Весь сон огней слился в единый свет.
И вот, лицо, поднявши к небесам,
У видел я, что и они – я сам.
И Духом Дух постиг, освободясь от мук,
Что никого нет рядом и вокруг,
Hет никого "вдали" и в "вышине"
Bсе дали – я и все живет во мне!
Пример выступления участника митинга...
Putin is known for his skills in martial arts! His uncanny ability to manoeuvre, side-step and punch very hard are requisite skills in politics too! Politics especially Russian politics is a very tough arena where only the fittest survive. Of course there are so many knives and banana skins he has to side-step! Russians are yearning for democracy and are impatient for change. The biggest question is TIME!
(Pancha Chandra) Brussels
Putin is an astute politician and might surprise us by re-inventing himself. He knows the country needs reforms. The question is whether he really wants to and whether his entourage wil let him do it.
Medvedev orders a review of Khodorkovsky's conviction. The Prosecutor General has to investigate if it was legal.
He will make an effort to deal with the West, despite his plan to "make Russia (militarily) great again". He wants to be accepted by leaders. There will be tensions with the U.S., probably not on the same level as during the Cold War.
Is the site jammed again?
someone to translate the russian fellow
cut, google translate, paste.
"he has the opportunity to follow Stolypin’s example and deliver on promises to root out corruption and backwardness while deploying the full coercive power of the state against his critics."
Yeah... no that's a paradox. Cannot root out corruption and backwardness while employing the state to attack your political enemies...
Loosers:
All Russian poor men and women from regions (nor capital). They do suffer the most from corrupted, cruel system built by putin. The amounts of money being stolen during his reighn of fog and inefficiency cant be counted. Even russian officials (rosstat) admited that the plunders only grow from 2000 up to 2012. This will turn into catastrophe, when (if) money income from oil/gas selling will fall
Winers:
Timchenko, Rotenber brothers and other Putin's friends and collegues which SUDDENLY MAGICALLY all become billionaires during his reigh
Conclusion:
Just another one demonkin from Kgb, thinking only about power and money and not about needs of the people or the world.
Zombified by tv, which is all captured by Putin's crew (nor bad word one can hear about him there), weak-willed, easily bought by, my fellow russians are ideal supportes for all kinda busters and demonic rulers
Hail putin, hail russia!
while i agree he is a dictator now, officially, we have it the same way. We just don't see it as clearly. We had the same family run this country since the beginning. I know Obama doesn't look much like Bush, but he sure acts like him. And his mother is Bush's direct blood relative. As is Clinton and all of the other US Presidents. We don't even vote for president in this country. If we did, Al Gore would have won in 2000 election. He had more votes.
Good post, Pete. Quite true too.
completely agree with you
Vote and don't sit home on your XbX, get a jobbie. sitting there hurts north American economy as others out there have to feed you.
All of you have been drinking way too much Obama KoolAid.
He is a liar and a fraud. He has brought nothing to the USA but debt.
You know but are afraid to say.
Is Russia truly any more dictatorial than the U.S.? I don't think so! The reason being is that this country has been taken over by the gigantic Military-Industrial-Complex. This is what Pres. Dwight D. Eisenhower warned us about back in Feb.,1959 but unfortunately, few people listened then!
Halliburton for President!!!
Seriously, who thought this "election" was going to turn out any other way?
Omg ! no way ! like u had a thought about another country besides ur own? how is the job market down there btw? omg ! empty pockets? no new eye phone for you
Even if Putin was great, didn't we have a law only for two terms presidency, oh yes Putin changed that law.... makes you wonder, why, right?
Russia needed change good or bad, and now it's just not possible
Good or bad? Really? What chose would you personally suggest? One of the crazy, old idiots? Ziuganov or Zhirinovsky? The Right opposition is too week right now and seriously wouldn't know what to do, it can only influence Putin trying to steer him into the right direction.
Putin did not change any law regarding the two-term limit of presidency.
Besides, even US law you probably so admire does not technically prohibit this situation: US law forbids being president for more than 2 terms CONSECUTIVELY. It does not prohibit a person who already served as president for 2 term seek the third term after a 4 year break. It just did not happened because usually American people got feed up with the president who already served 2 terms and worn out his popularity, but there is no legal ban.
As an outside observer I am puzzled by all the hype about massive demonstration against Putin's election. Is his election not a result of a transparent democratic process? Surely when someone gets over 60% of the votes against a rival who only manages 17% cannot be said to impose his will against that of the Russian people. If those who are protesting against any corrupt practices in this election have real issues that concern them let the world see the facts to substantiate their concerns. Otherwise Putin will be justified to suggest that there is sinister hand behind the proposed demonstrations.
The translation of the video is so incredibly poor, it misses a lot of Putin said
Great day for the motherland
The translation is wrong in incomplete! Are there qualified interpeters in CNN or every second sentence is missed on purpose? Looks like CNN only translates what they want american public to hear! Shame on CNN!
In short: rest of the world will win (in narrow power politics terms), ordinary Russians will lose (in broad human decency terms). Putin is decidedly not the man to modernize Russia and so Russia will remain poor and insignificant. Some in the rest of the world will consider this good news. As for the ordinary Russians, Putin will certainly make some pretty wacky resource allocation decisions, from Russia's limited means, thereby prolonging and widening misery. They would have deserved better, or would they?
The United States? The young people? The middle class? Losers?
Come on!! The closest to Putin was Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party, and who has Stalinist ideals. If the Russians decided to vote someone else instead of Putin, and Zyuganov became the next president, Russia would go back to the Soviet days. Russians are not stupid, and Americans should think a little more who really is the winner and who's not. The young people, middle class, and the United States would have been the losers if Putin hadn't won! As we say in Spain: "Mejor un mal conocido que un bueno sin conocer", which means something like better bad but known than someone who could be better but is unknown, and believe me, Zyuganov isn't better.. and the next one had only the 7%.
And people who complain and say democracy lost, that's not true. The Russians voted Putin, and he's the best they have now.
He called George W. Bush and asked "How do you cheat at a major election that you can't possibly win" – George told him how – that's how he won.
He did not have to ask anyone.
He already had this plan in place when he left the 1st time.
That is why he changed the term limits and now is back for good.
He will develop a new a smaller and stronger CCCP.
Don't take us for manipaulated idiots. Putin won freely and fair. Majority of people wants him back.
The election results are fishy to say the least. Democratic elections are generally much closer than "over 60%". Even landslides in America are not that big of a margin.
thanks expert, indeed they are 'fishy' if you say so, because your hunch can never be far from the truth.. but in all seriousness these election results were expected worldwide not because anyone cheated but rather because they reflect the general sentiment in russia today. average russian citizen does not care about social media – organized protests (a la arab spring, occupy) which are fueled by the west to destabilize and undercut, simply because they're fringe elements of society and do not represent the general populace
Oh-oh another registered electoral observer. maybe you a Russian citizen also? i love your concern. are you trying to abandon ship?
Please, export us a better contender than Gennady Zyuganov. Is he Mr. Obama?
Matthew Rojanska is a Putin puppet.
Answer: Russian Mafia.
Putin is as crooked as a dog's hind leg when it have to pee.
the translation is the worst i've ever seen. she picks out several words from various sentences and combines them to make her own bombastic ululations and then passes them off as his. example:
Putin: Today we've shown our people indeed very able to discern the desire for renewal from the intent of those that only have one goal – to crumble Russian statehood and usurp power.
vs.
t!ts mcGee translator: We've shown! that our people! are ready for renewal! and have only one aim! .. ugh mmm RUSSIAN PEOL HAVE SHOWN WHAT THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE IN OUR COUNTRY, IN OUR LAND!
i have a better translation;
News in Russian:The Russian People made their choice.
Translated to english: Omg, OMG ! that is unacceptable, how could those balalajka-loving , bear dancing, vodka drinking people could have picked the guy again? omg they are soo wrong how could they? we dont like how Russian People Vote ! Anyone but the dictator !
If you like Putin so much.
Move there enbrace your new future.
Let me help you pack.
American conservatives always claim to love democracy.
They are very loud about it, even so far as pushing democracy on other nations at the point of a gun.
Until, that is, until democracy gets a result that the Cons don't like.
Then it's 'fraud'.
I tell you how Putin won the election. He cheated. The word cheating have been written on his face.
A you a facereader? Please, read me the face of Mikhail Prokhorov...
Russia always had a kind of mafia inside the government . Talk about Human rihgts ? Hahaha forget about it.
my posts just disappear. sorry – just a test.
Part 1:
The situation is not simple. Putin won mostly due to those factors:
1. A lot of people used to having a "tsar" and they want "a good tsar", they are afraid of a change. Many Putin supporters say "he is already in power, he knows what to do, the new guy will have to learn for years". And "he can make things worse trying to change". People do not really read and discuss candidate programs, they still vote how they are told – like in USSR.
2. Relative stability that came during Putin's stay in power. I hear a lot: "yes, the salaries are small, but at least they are paid on time" and "we don't have to stay in line to buy food". During the end of Gorbachev and some of Yeltsin years the salaries sometimes would not be paid for months, there were limited about of food (and goods in general).
3. Many Russians think that Putin made Russia "strong" internationally, they miss the old days of "pride for USSR". Most people I asked can not explain why exactly they think Russia is "stronger" now.
4. Most of the population outside a few big cities watch only a couple of TV channels, controlled (indirectly) by Putin. In my opinion, this makes elections not quite fair.
5. Various "tricks" used when counting the votes. I don't think this would change the situation a lot, Putin would still have won (if not in first – in the second round).
6. Government made it so that no "real" strong candidate would emerge and unify the opposition. Opposition, in turn, seem to be busy figuring out little (and often – meaningless) issues between themselevs, who finances who etc, rather then trying to create a broad movement. Many of opposition leaders are (or perceived to be) corrupt themselves.
No. 6: We all know what opposition leaders were figuring out among themselves from the infamous tapes of cell-phone conversations of Nemtsov: click right here: http://www.lifenews.ru/news/77459
...and the hottest topic is... Who did not have s e x with Bozhena Rynski?!
Yes, it is Putin's fault that Nemtsov did not have s e x for a couple weeks, so he was in a bad mood, and was using all kind of profanity toward all other "revolutionaries" around him.
Yes, situation is simple. I am in free creative profession. I must cofess that never in my life work and reward in Russia was as free and fair as during Putin era. There is no limitation on freedom of information or speech. No limits to emigration. People are free to live the life they want. It is true that Russia is not as rich as France or Germany. But Russia is doing well comparable to any of its nearest neighbours. Putin critics usually do unfair thing, they say that Russia is not as rich as Switzerland BECAUSE OF LUCK OF DEMOCRACY. But it's false statement. Propaganda.
My mom's neighbor decided to buy an old bus and start a small busyness as a local bus driver (most buses in her city are private, they just follow one of the assigned routs). before he even started making money, criminals came to him and asked to pay – otherwise they said they would burn the bus.
My friend, a honest local politician, could not get elected to be a city mayor, mostly cause all local newspapers are owned or controlled by the current "people in charge" and criminals behind them. Officially, they support pro Putin "Edinaya Rossiya" party. In one of the schools (one of the places where elections taking place), they threatened director that school will not get finances if they do not provide "required results". In another, where a person decided not to rig the votes (and so results were... different) – the guy was fired later. This was not this year election (I do not know the details yet), this was previous time. Our city is the one where "current government" usually gets a lot of votes...
This is how "free" the voting and politics in Russia are.
The situation is not simple. Putin won mostly due to those factors:
Part 2:
Yes, Putin made several steps towards "stabilizing" Russia, made it "controllable" again, made government functional. Those measures were required and those were good steps. The general prosperity level is significantly higher then it was 10 years ago too. We need to understand though that a lot of successes are (at least in part) due to high oil/gas prices.
I personally feel like more radical steps are required now, especially in fighting corruption, quickly moving towards non conscription based army, removing government control over TV and other changes in political system, changes in educational, health care and insurance systems, clarifications in tax law, tax amnesty etc – and it is hard to say if Putin will dare to implement those. After all, without control over TV and "support" of local governors with organizing the voting process, it will be much harder for him to win elections in 6 years. I guess we will see.
So what is the substance of your proposal? If you have a better idea, just tell it straight.
In reality we all like criticize Putin using irrelevant terms and comparisons (like non-democratic, authoritarian, totalitarian, brutal dictatorship, suffocator of freedom, etc... Our American friends even bring Stalin's name from time to time). The point is that all this criticism is merely waste of time. When it comes to real decision making and elections Putin always ends up being the best choice among available. And even if you add all hypothetical alternatives, like Yavlinsky, Nemtsov, Navalny, Parfenov, and whatever else bright personalities from the opposition and put all of then on the ballot - the outcome will still be the same: Putin.
In those areas where I feel like I have something to offer (military, education, innovations) – I'm hoping for the Prohorov's party to create a moderated forum where those proposals can be discussed (it would be too long to post/discuss here). In short:
-every year Russia sends a few hundreds thousands young people to be humiliated and mistreated in the army. Mostly people who could not enter universities, people from very poor families, who could not buy them out one way or another. I think this has to and can be changed, where people voluntarily join the army – for example, as a good step to a higher education paid by the government, as a way to earn a skill, earn money etc. Look at USA model – it mostly works, I have a lot of ex marine friends – they are decent people, for some of them army helped to start a career.
The accdenit of finding this post has brightened my day
-USSR (and now Russia) had/has a very good education system – up to and including a high school. In terms of amount of knowledge it seem to be better then in USA. However, Russian higher education (universities), that now exist in such a great numbers, mostly do not teach people what is really needed on a labor market. Most people (apart form a few best places like Moscow State) just go there to avoid army, to get some "high education degree" and later do not work according to what they were taught. Even my MIPT ("Russian MIT") was (is?) lagging way beyond what is really needed. This can be improved too. In some cases, 70+ years old guys who sometimes do not even track/know modern state of their industry are still in charge of curriculums...
-a chain between education/research and development is essentially broken. There are not too many venture funds, there are difficulties bringing "smart people" and "busyness people" together. And when it exists – it is only in Moscow and a very few other places. Government is trying to do something – by putting money into Rosnano, Rostelekom etc – but it looks like government people only know how to redirect those money into their own pockets.
BTW: I do not blame Putin personally for all the problems. Alas, we Russians seem to use every opportunity to steal anything that comes from government (well, 70 years of communist regime taught us that...).
I don't believe that 'communist regime' taught anyone to steal. In fact, it didn't. If anyone has a propensity to steal from an individual or a government, it's not because of 'regime', it's because of poor individual morals. It's not about excess of Vladimir Putin, it's about deficit of Jesus Christ.
@Igor. Alas, there were 2 main ways to have a nice house, car, good cloth, TVs, etc:
-be one of the communist party officials or "party approved" singer, painter, writer, scientist, general etc
-steal.
In many cases, stealing was not "direct": it was typical to pay "extra" to a person in a shop for decent – usually imported – goods that otherwise just "would not be available"; you pay somebody who works at the machine building plant to make you a garden fence poles (or almost anything you need – of cause not from materials you or anybody paid for)... You pay some professor to get your kid to enter university and so on.
Markets did not exist, you could not pay for a lot of goods and services openly, there was a shortage of many things (cars, TVs – and later even food) – so people are used to bribes, to treating almost everything as "this is governments, so this is nobodies". Moscow was not so bad, but I did not live in Moscow at that time...
It IS because of 'regime' – but yes, it has nothing to do with Putin. It is already "in our blood". Will take a while to clear...
ah – the above 3 posts were @AlexShch, but there are limits on message length and frequency of posts here, so back to work for now
Maybe Prohorov's party can create some "civilized" forum... Alas, most Russian forums tend to have the 3rd post in a thread calling the other guy an idiot (or worse) – no matter what the original topic is... As Prohorov said – one of the biggest issues is our level of culture, tolerance to differences.
@Mikhail M etc. Let's be realists here and separate foam from beer from foam.
I generally view changes during the last three month - events related to both
Duma and presidential elections - as a positive move, specifically
– The Power (Putin et. al.) has received a very clear signal from the society
that not everybody is so happy, and basically growing fed up of the luck of
fresh ideas and the overall situation which shows clear tendency of stagnation.
And it seems that that the power is receptive, at least they are talking right
words right now. It is yet to be seen what stands behind these words and how
deeply they will go in practical implementation of the proposed changes
(I hate word "reforms" because it is overused and devalued at this point).
– at the same time the "orange" tendencies have been flatly rejected by
the society: Nemtsov and Yavlinsky lost their appeal long time ago. Kasparov,
Kasyanov never actually gain one. Limonov is merely a clown. The new faces
of opposition appeared, notably Navalny, Yashin, and Udaltsov, but they mostly
lost than gained during the last three month (although I have some sympathy
to Udaltsov, even though he is fundamentally a communist). Navalny mainly
discredited himself. A respected journalist and intellectual Leonid Parfenov
looks like clown now after appearing together with Xenia Sobchak and Vasya
Oblomov in their clip on Youtube.
– Communist fraction in State Duma has increased to the point where they
cannot be ignored as they were during the last Duma, and I view this a strongly
positive change: prior to that the whole legislative process was basically a
single-artist play without subjecting it to proper analysis. I do not
particularly see any useful contribution from Zhirinovsky party into the
process. Nor I see the usefulness of the quite significant presence of
famous sportsmen within the United Russia Party: what specifically Valuev
is doing there? He should be either on ring fighting Klitchko, or supervising
a gang of racketeers in Moscow Central Market, but as a member of legislative
process he is kind of useless.
– In my view, Pres. Medvedev lost his face one year ago by insisting on
non-vetoing the UN resolution on Libya (it appears that MID diplomats insisted
on veto, but Medvedev overruled them). He also made quite a few stupid
statements regarding the recent plane crashes, especially after Yak-42 crash
near Yaroslavl. I guess, this eventually led to the decision to switch places
with Putin.
– Prokhorov gained, and I expect him to be involved in the government or way
or the other.
– Most importantly, rumors about polarization within the Russian society have
shown to be be exaggerated: in the end everybody is talking to everybody.
What is wrong an needs to be fixed effective immediately:
Blatant non-professionalism within the Government:
– Defense Minister Analoliy Serdukov is basically ...a furniture salesman
(later promoted to sales manager). This is a kind of democracy in its extreme
form: one can say that democracy is when a housewife and a kitchen woman plays
some role in governing of the State. Then why furniture salesman cannot become
Defense Minister? The secret of his skyrocketing career is simple: he married
the daughter of former prime minister Zubkov.
In reality this is wrong. He is screwing things up, and screwing it badly.
– The chief ideologist of the regime Vyacheslav Surkov known otherwise as
"the puppet master" is basically ...a dropout from theater/movie director
department Culture University - yep, in the past when MPhTI students wanted
to get a quick s e x they usually take bus No 368 to Levoberezhnaya. Yep, the
guy is from there.
– Vice-prime minister Sechin is ...a literature critique specialist.
Now he is responsible for managing economy.
– Vice-prime minister Sergey Ivanov is perhaps the symbol of non-professionalism.
Being a KGBist is the same as being a lawyer in US: I gives you access to
virtually anything. He is managing technology and military industrial complex.
Does he have a clue?
– Dmitry Rogozin is a professional diplomat by training. While being ambassador
to NATO he was in the right place. Now he is responsible for space industry.
– Sergey Kiriyenko mosty known as "kindersurprise" is now the head of RosAtom.
Does he have a clue? May be, after all I can also read about atomic industry
from Wikipedia.
– Andrey Furcenko, minister of education. Interestingly enough, in the past
he is a computational fluid dynamics specialist one of the very few Russian
names known on the west. But now his educational reforms, to say in politely,
suck.
...The list may be contunue ...and finally, the award-winning...
– Anatoliy Chubais "the chief privatizator" (or privateer, to be specific) is
not responsible for nanotechnologies. Standing ovation!
A lot of good thoughts in your post... One of the reasons I think a change would be good. New team, hopefully more professional. Putin/Medvedev recycle a lot people they know (from the past or personally) – they just move then around...
We need strong, "serious" right and left parties to keep more "center minded" Putin from making mistakes. Alas, with control over media and local officials, the government is not too afraid to actually loose a vote...
I think defence minister could (probably should) not be a military officer. I interacted with a bunch of them... Not saying all, but most have... specific mindset... that is Ok for following orders, but not ok for reforming the whole thing...
And as to UN resolutions... I would stop trying to derail whatever Europe/US (and most of the free world) want and stop supporting the last dictators... But I understand they want to keep "situations going" as long as possible to keep oil prices high... Tough call...
...As far as UN resolutions we should distinguish between reality and virtual reality. Obviously, Russian Foreign Ministry knows what is now going on in Syria directly from its own sources and not from CNN and FOX news, and based on their past actions, Russian Foreign Ministry is generally speaking sane.
The jury is still out about whether it was a good idea to let NATO intervene in Libya. Russia had some influence on Gaddafi regime and was able to force him to negotiate. Instead it let the whole thing to be escalated into an all out civil war which is not quite over yet. Of course, it was a tricky position. It is like being a lawyer for a criminal in court - a person is not entirely innocent, but is accused of being guilty of much more than he is actually guilty of. And the accusers are very pushy. Then what? The real-life situations are not always black and white.
Oil prices are irrelevant in both cases. Besides, Russia's economy is only ~20% consists of oil. The rest suffers from high oil prices the same way as any other country's economy.
I also afraid that Afghanistan will be turned back to Taliban after US withdrawal: the talking right now is basically about face saving - how to withdraw without admitting that it was an all-out failure. From the Russian point view this makes the whole cooperation with NATO on that war highly questionable - would it be a better policy to simply stand neutral and not to allow NATO planes into Russian and middle-Asian airspace? It was not obvious back in 2001 when it started, but it kind of emerging right now - the negative consequences - primarily spread of instability, but also drugs - outweight the potential benefits, even though US promptly pays for the transit.
US was very quick to relabel its ally for 30 years Mubarak as a "dictator". Of course, supporting such regime is a tricky business in sense that if it is falling, the newly coming power will remember who was supporting the one from the past.
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