Editor's note: Mohammed Ayoob is University Distinguished Professor of International Relations at Michigan State University and adjunct scholar at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. The views expressed in this article are his own.
By Mohammed Ayoob – Special to CNN
During the past few weeks the drums of war have been beating loud and clear. Prime Minister Netanyahu, during his meeting with President Obama and his speech to AIPAC, made it very clear that Israel reserves the right to attack Iran if it comes to it - even against the wishes of the United States. Ostensibly the difference between Washington and Tel Aviv seems to be on the issue of timing. This, in turn, is based on divergent interpretations of where the red line should be drawn in terms of Iran’s presumed nuclear capacity. While a highly subjective definition of “nuclear capability” appears to be the red line for Israel, “weaponization” or at least clear evidence of it is Washington’s preferred red line.
This semantic difference hides a fundamental disjuncture between American and Israeli approaches to the subject. Israel defines the red line in terms of its narrow strategic and political interests in the Middle East. Israel believes it is threatened by the perception, leave alone the reality, of an Iranian nuclear weapons capability. America, as a world power, has larger interests at stake both in the region and in terms of its image and credibility globally.
Washington cannot afford another fiasco similar to the one when WMDs were touted as the major reason for the invasion of Iraq and none were discovered. Intelligence estimates and statements made by respected military figures in the United States testify to the fact that Iran is nowhere near acquiring nuclear weapons capability that may warrant an American attack.
Although Israeli leaders clearly state their sovereign right to make decisions vis-à-vis the threat that they perceive from Iran, their preferred option would be for the United States to take the lead in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. This would make sense militarily because the American capacity to inflict sustained damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities is far superior to that of Israel. It would also make sense politically because it would demonstrate that there is no “daylight” between Israel and the United States when it comes to Iran.
Even if Israel decides to attack Iran by itself, its leaders may wish that Iran would retaliate against American as well as Israeli targets in order to draw the United States into a war against Tehran and thereby shift both military and political responsibility onto Washington’s shoulders.
Mohammed Ayoob
Unlike Israel, the United States has to worry about not merely the success or failure of exercising the military option but also about the impact of military action on the price of oil and, above all, America's future relations with the Muslim world in general and the Middle East in particular. No matter what advice the narrowly based autocracies of the Persian Gulf may give Washington, the Arab publics in a rapidly democratizing environment, regardless of sectarian affiliations, will not forgive the United States for a military adventure that will be widely interpreted as a direct attack on “Islam”.
Paradoxically, an attack on predominantly Shia Iran will end up alienating the Sunni-dominated Muslim Middle East from the United States for a long time to come. If this happens, Osama bin Laden would be chuckling from beyond his watery grave.
However, it is this prospect of the alienation of the Arab and Muslim countries from the United States that is a major reason why Israel is interested in dragging the United States into a war with Iran. A goal of Israel’s foreign policy has been to convince American policy makers and the American public that it is the only trustworthy ally that the United States has in a hostile Middle East. An American military venture against Iran will turn this argument it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The second major reason why Israel advocates war against Iran is related to its objective of preserving its military dominance in the Middle East. The real threat that a nuclear capable Iran poses to Israel is not that it will launch a nuclear strike against Israel. As Fareed Zakaria has pointed out, the Iranian rulers, even if most Americans may consider them unreasonable, are “rational actors” in the sense that their major goal is regime and, I would add state, preservation. They are not an irrational bunch bent on committing collective national suicide - which is what would happen given Israel’s second-strike nuclear capacity based, among other platforms, on its submarines.
No one could have summed up this argument better than Paul Pillar, who spent 28 years in the U.S. intelligence community in which his last position was National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia. According to Pillar, “More than three decades of history demonstrate that the Islamic Republic’s rulers, like most rulers elsewhere, are overwhelmingly concerned with preserving their regime and their power - in this life, not some future one.”
The threat that a nuclear or even near-nuclear Iran poses to Israel is political and not military. As Trita Parsi points out in his recent book, A Single Roll of the Dice, this threat is two-fold. According to Parsi, even the perception that Iran is a nuclear capable power “will damage the image of Israel as the sole nuclear-armed state in the region and undercut the myth of its invincibility.” Second, Parsi argues, “The deterrence and power Iran would acquire by mastering the nuclear fuel cycle could compel Washington to cut a deal with Tehran in which Iran would gain recognition as a regional power and acquire strategic significance in the Middle East at the expense of Israel.”
These arguments make it clear that the threat Israel perceives from Iran is not existential but strategic, in the sense that they relate to the regional balance of power and Israel’s apprehension that this balance may be tilted somewhat against it if Iran is perceived as having mastered the nuclear fuel cycle. Therefore, the question that American policy makers need to ask themselves is the following: Is it in the interest of the United States to engage in a military adventure whose outcome will be far from certain but whose political and economic costs are likely to be immense only in order to prevent the erosion of Israel’s strategic advantage in the Middle East? Much, including America’s future standing in the Middle East, hinge on how they answer this question.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Mohammed Ayoob.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
| Advertising practices | Advertise with us | About us | Work for us | Help
The Arab Spring was our chance to reset our relations with the Muslim world. If we would have supported the people's strive for freedom, we could have used this unprecedented moment in history to create a new pro-western paradigm for the region that would have been very beneficial to our long term interests.
But because Israel controls our mid-east policy, we have squandered our opportunity, and gearing up once again to assume the mantle of "The great satan."
Don't count out the Arab Spring just yet! There is a mechanism in place to create success, even still.
if iran can arm itself with nuclear weapons,israel won't be able to fight allies of iran (hezbollah and gaza based terrorists) without iran threatening israel with it's nukes. israel won't be able to deal a strong blow on it's enemies if it is shackled like this.
If Netanyahu wants to war with Iran, it's his business and the Israelis have to deal with him. Caspar Weinberger, Reagan's secretary of defence, was right: The United States should only take on wars that could sustain popular support and not those that threatened to be indecisive. The foray in Iran would be a protracted one. Learn the lesson of Vietnam and Afghanistan,
I think you have already been drinking.
If only the United States had abandoned Israel. If only they had urged Israel to dissolve and allow hundreds of thousands of Arabs to occupy it. If only the Jews had converted to the one true religion (Islam) then the United States would finally have found agreement with the Arab countries in the region.
Do you think we just fell off the turnip truck?
Israel controls the weather, too.
Ayoob's statements are pro-Iran nuclear development and his predictions and assumptions are provoking US to deviate from her likely plan to crackdown on Iran's nuclear facilities. I think this is the only time for US to defend and preserve her sovereignity and dignity as a world superpower nation rather than allowing a obstinated Muslim nation to come to the world's plateform. No matter what it will cost, US should and must coperate in bringing down this nuclear idea....
Good aritcile but you forgot one other strategic reason and that is Israel wanting to make the Palestinian issue seconary. It also sees Iran as one of the main supporters of Palestinian "resistance".
All the media talk of war with Iran is helping the financial market boost oil profits ! Israel will not attack Iran, NO ! Israel's prime minister, won't attack unless he can get Obama on board to give a consent to back Israel. So far Obama has been wise enough to avoid such a consent. Now at some point, what is dangerous is our own U.S. military generals. They could attempt to back Obama into a corner to give such a consent. His re-election could be swayed by the republican media if Obama could be seen as "weak" on protecting U.S. interests. Would Israeli leaders attempt such a move, I say yes. But either way, Israel would become the loser. Let's just say Iran sqeeze's in a nuclear weapons building program, WHAT WOULD IRAN DO WITH A NUCLEAR BOMB ! If they set one off on someone, Iran would end up a giant size hole in the ground the size of the grand canyon in the U.S.. Its citizens would be destroyed, the government couldn't function for burying people. What all this talk is doing is strengthening the super rich, at the expense of us lower middle class. Remember people reading this the bet is not an actual war with Iran, its the speculation that one could happen, even if it proves to be false..
I agree and disagree. What of the other Middle Eastern Countries? The Saudi's will immediately acquire Nuclear Weapons through an (already existing) agreement with Pakistan. I am sure they will not be the only ones. Think 10 years from now. More countries going nuclear. Asia is already getting heated up over China's ambitions, so why pick on Iran now? It's all for Israel's sake as the article states. If the US goes to war they'll bankrupt themselves and the western world. The world has been getting more chaotic over the last 10 years and will continue to do so at an even faster pace. This war, which will happen, is just going to speed that up... a lot. Humankind is very well overdue a crash and it's coming.
The fact that US president has to be answering to Netanyahu and AIPAC like a school boy and be so much scared of them to the degree that he can make decisions that do not benefit US's national interests but those of Israel is scary. Israel knows that it will gain immensely if it starts a war of civilizations. It has been trying to start a perpetual war of civilizations with the help of neocons for two decades now and have been partially successful at that.
And we pay much higher prices at the pump every time they talk of war. Israel is helping Iran make more money by helping raise the price of oil at the expense of American people.
Israel does see Iran as an existential threat. The threat is not Iran's nuclear program but Iran's support for a one-state solution. Iran has said publicly that it supports one state with equal rights for all its Jewish and Arab citizens. All the fuss about "wiping Israel off the map" is an attempt to distract the public from the one-state idea. Paradoxically, Israel also wants a one-state solution but one which excludes the Arab residents of the area.
Israel does NOT see Iran as an existential threat. Iran is not suicidal and will not attack Israel with nuclear weapons. Because Israel has submarine-based nuclear weapons, a strike on Israel guarantees that Iran will be wiped clean from the face of the earth. There is absolutely NO reason to believe that Iran would commit national and cultural suicide. Nothing Iran has ever done has supported a conclusion that Iran is not a rational actor.
If I were you, I would sue my imam for all the lies he has told you.
When did reason ever constrain any one of us?
Please. Your comment has no basis in reality. The acknowledged greatest threat to Israel's existence is the birthrate of its arab population that is allowed to vote in elections. The fear is that the arabs will swamp out the jews and turn the state into another wonderful example of the arab spring. Here's a question on which you can focus your mighty intellect -What other arab states worry about their indigenous jewish populations swamping them out in an election. Hmmmmm. None.
The analysis presented in this article is mostly correct, except for two facts. First, from all evidence, Iran is NOT seeking to develop nuclear weapons. So, all arguments that Iran will be a "nuclear state," are moot, where by nuclear state we mean a country with nuclear arms. Secondly, the influence of the Jewish lobby AIPAC in the US is so overwhelming that President Obama has very limited freedom of action. In particular, in an election year, he cannot afford to do anything against Israeli interests. Congress is almost 100% owned by AIPAC and the media is also overwhelmingly controlled by Israeli and neo-con agents.
In review, the entire "Iran crisis" is a myth developed by Israel and the US neo-cons to distract the public from the continued intransigence of Israel in making any attempt to resolve the Palestinian issue. The other motivating factor is to continue the hegemony of the US and Israel in the Middle East. The rebellion in Syria which is actually funded and sponsored by the West, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others is another example of attempting to continue and extend the hegemony of the West in the region.
What Jewish lobby? Enough with that nonsense. Most of the Jews in the US support the democratic party even with Obama. The oil lobby and the Arab lobby are far stronger; for years they determine the American policy, the American presence in the Persian Gulf in order to secure sale of oil by the Arab countries.
You are hilarious. You haven't heard of AIPAC. It controls Congress completely. Anything it puts in front of Congress passes immediately. They even write the legislation. A recent AIPAC-sponsored sanctions bill on Iran passed the Senate 100-0. You must be asleep completely.
Let me offer you a towel to dry behind your ears.
Google " aipac iraq war" to see how Israel and AIPAC pushed for that war just like they are doing now regarding Iran. The same Republican Jewish neo-cons (Kristol, Feith, Perle, Wolfowitz and Abrams) that lied our way into Iraq are now doing with Iran. The neo-cons got pledges from all presidential candidates, except for Paul, for a war with Iraq a year before the election. I view Obama as the only hope to prevent this and if Israel decides to go it alone, I hope its planes are shot down, pilots captured, Their bombs can't penetrate Iran's defenses, and missiles rain down on Tel-Aviv. Maybe then Israel will lose some of its arrogance and superiority, get rid of Bibi and Lieberman, stop settlement building, and make a just peace with the Palestinians.
I wish known Israel-Firsters like you know who spouting pompous nonsense would write about how Congress should be taking the testimony of survivors of Israehell's murderous attack on the USS Liberty under oath (see official web site of survivors):
http://www.gtr5.com/
After all, the murderous attack on the USS Liberty remains the only incident in American history where American forces attacked by a foreign power, namely, Israhell (otherwise known as Precious and said like Golem in the Lord of the Rings), have never had their testimony taken under oath by Congress due to the power that Israel-Firster special interests wield, and which makes American politicians grovel like slavish lapdogs at the feet of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
No wonder that Pat Buchanan calls the US Congress "Israeli-occupied territory"!
It is time to take back America
Readers should post the USS Liberty survivors web site on your Facebook, LinkedIn and any other such social media web site and wall page and post this demand on the wall pages of your Congressional Representatives and on news commentary sites, and wherever that you can as the American survivors and the victims of the vicious premeditated attack on the USS Liberty deserve long denied justice and to have their voices heard notwithstanding the manipulation of American’s body politic by AIPAC (which now needs to be pulled out kicking and screaming into the light of day)
Personally, my slogan has now become:
"TAKE BACK AMERICA.......REMEMBER THE LIBERTY!"
All Iran has to do is allow inspectors to prove that they aren't making nuclear weapons. How rational is that? We aren't dealing with rational people, Please. Muslisms need to hate Jews so they don't kill each other. It is ashame that a few nuts continue to rule the masses ie Hilter. We are sheep ready for slaughter.
Amen Northwoods.
I wish known Israel-Firsters like you know who spouting pompous nonsense would write about how Congress should be taking the testimony of survivors of Israehell's murderous attack on the USS Liberty under oath (see official web site of survivors):
http://www.gtr5.com/
After all, the murderous attack on the USS Liberty remains the only incident in American history where American forces attacked by a foreign power, namely, Israhell (otherwise known as Precious and said like Golem in the Lord of the Rings), have never had their testimony taken under oath by Congress due to the power that Israel-Firster special interests wield, and which makes American politicians grovel like slavish lapdogs at the feet of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
No wonder that Pat Buchanan calls the US Congress "Israeli-occupied territory"!
It is time to take back America
Readers should post the USS Liberty survivors web site on your Facebook, LinkedIn and any other such social media web site and wall page and post this demand on the wall pages of your Congressional Representatives and on news commentary sites, and wherever that you can as the American survivors and the victims of the vicious premeditated attack on the USS Liberty deserve long denied justice and to have their voices heard notwithstanding the manipulation of American’s body politic by AIPAC (which now needs to be pulled out kicking and screaming into the light of day)
Personally, my slogan has now become:
"TAKE BACK AMERICA.......REMEMBER THE LIBERTY!"
Careful Quinty – your bias is showing. You know Iran is not a threat to Israel -how? Perhaps by the comments of Iran's leadership? Oh no.. wait – they are on record as saying they want to exterminate Israel. Perhaps it's because they want to spend a fortune to develop nuclear technology but not for weapons? Oh but wait again, they sit on a ton of oil so it completely makes sense that they just want peaceful nuclear power. Methinks you are just a tad confused – well maybe more than a tad.
Some third party country like Germany or Australia needs come forward to talk to both Iran and Israel and try to get Amedinejad and Netanyahu to talk to one another. The problem being is that the current lily-livered leaders of these countries won't step out of their ivory towers long enough to do that! All they do is preach "unity with the United States"!!!
Um, that has already occured. Brazil and Turkey agreed to a fuel-swap deal with Tehran during the G-15 Summit in May 2010.
If Iran doesn't want problems with Israel, they should just call of their state of war, establish diplomatic relations, exchange ambassadors and discuss whatever differences they have accross a table. That's what civilized nations do. In fact, that's how all civilized nations in the world relate to israel, whether its America, Britian, France, even if they don't always agree. Now, Israel certainly doesn't deny Iran's right to exist. So why can't Iran act in a civilized manner as well?
I strongly believe that Israel and/or the United States will attack Iran soon, probably by December of this year.
Israel's operating assumption is that Iran is working towards acquiring nuclear weapons. And Israel will never allow this. That is no threat, it is simply a statement of their policy. Regardless of WHY Israel won't allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, Israel time table is based on two things:
1) They won't allow Iran to develop the capacity to build nuclear weapons. Iran could be aspiring to become another nation with an advanced, though peaceful nuclear technological infrastructure. If they did this, then they could build nuclear weapons a lot quicker if they set their minds to it. And that's what Israel wants to avoid at any cost.
2) They will not allow Iran to enter the "Zone of Immunity". Meaning they know that there is a point where destroying Iran's nuclear sites becomes near impossible. While weapons could be years away, the Zone Of Immunity could be only a few months away.
To understand the thinking of the Israeli leaders you must look at history and the plight of the Jewish people throughout the ages. The present leaders or Israel regard themselves as the protectors and defenders of their people.
One day (probably this year) Israeli intelligence officials, military leaders, and scientists will go to the Israeli political leaders and tell them that Iran is about it enter the Zone of Immunity. At that moment the order will be given, and it won't matter what else is going on in the world or when the US election is. Israel will act to protect its people.
Hey – correct – except we have been told June. All those pro – Iranian bomb seem to have forgotten me and my kids ( and, of course, my divorced wife.
Upper Galili
Israel
iran is just big enough that it will be a handful for israel to handle on its own. the phrase going to the well once too often comes to mind. The us should become friends with Iran. They can be a strong ally of the US if our diplomacy wasnt so stark black & white.
I think the biggest obstacle for US and Iran is really trust. Trita Parsi mentions in his book "A Roll of The Dice" that Turkey and Australia reached an agreement where Iran agreed to just about everything the US asked for. The US was conducting a dual negotiation strategy and asked Russian and China to agree to sanctions. Both agreement and the sanctions ended up on Obama's desk and he chose sanctions. This behavior from both sides is what has caused a tremendous loss of trust which is why it has taken so long for the US and Iran to make a deal. They simply don't trust the other party to follow through. Israel's interest is strictly regional and political. There are two sides to a poll. That which the government answers to, and what the people of its nation answer to. Arab support to invade Iran is outrageous and the Arab spring clearly demonstrates that.
A thoughtful analysis with which I agree. The consequences of military action by Israel against Iran are overwhelmingly negative both economically and politically for the reasons cited in the article. Unfortunately, even with 'rational actors' there are often 'irrational' choices made with unintended consequences resulting. We can only hope that Obama, privately, made clear to Netenyahu that US support in the instance of a premature attack by Israel on Iran was not certain.
I think Mohammed needs to reread the Quran, which is a twisted version for Islam of what the Torah & Bible say concerning the Last Days coming wars. See Isaiah 17; & Ezekiel 38; 39; for info about these coming wars with Islamic followers, and Russia against Israel. Even Muslims know that there will be a 7 yr peace with Israel after a major war killing millions, a peace that the Muslim Mahdi, or Christian Anti christ/ One World Leader will confirm.
Then there is Zechariah 12;-14; which shows what Yahweh, God will do to all the nations that seek to control his chosen people the Jews, his chosen land of Israel & his chosen Holy city of Zion, Jerusalem.
War is coming to the middle east & all the world will be drawn into it resulting in 2/3rds of all life being killed during this Last 7 yr period, so get ready.
what a s stupid an d greedy god, just like his chosen people
Ehyeh asher ehyeh (Hebrew: אהיה אשר אהיה) is so stupid to promote peace. Better allah that tell me to kill, kill, kill.
Allah is stupid but not as yahwah. All in all, all of them all bunch of blood thirsty fictional gods.
The point is : Israel is based on some stupid story, the whole country is an apartheid (isn't it Jewish state?) I could not understand how can some one assume they are a rational regime! They believe a fictional God gives them those damn lands which part is rational!
Its time he chose another people! This one be tired.
Upper Galili , Israel
Hey Amir, I am a complete atheist but absolutely ethnic Jew. As long as crazy aggresive nationalism exist we, of all peoples, need a little country with the stronget army as possible. My granfather and family got no help when they were detryed. (and not by lethal injections as in USA). No one wanted us so we came here. We are still fighting ww2. It could only be here as most of the survivors could not conceive of anyware else. We are now 7,000,000.
As far as apartheid is concerned – I am an ex- S African. There is ABSOLUTELY no similarity. SA was besides being racist was fascist. We were scared to talk on the phones or at a pub. Israel is the freeist countries in the world! Good god, we have Arab members of parliament cursing our existence – almost daily. One judge in our supreme court refused to stand to the anthem – and was understood by tyhe majority. There are a hundred examples. If someone takes on a gay in the army HE goes to jail. Apartheid its not.
The west bank HAS to be returned and eventually will. Personally – before tomorrows mornings coffee. True ALL the settlements are religous cuckoos much like yours. They are under 20% of the elecorate but always get into the coalition and screw up my life.
Upper Galili, Northern border,Israel
So, why life should be hard for Muslims in a non Muslim country such as India? It is because India is a secular country. You can find people of almost every religion in India. But till today no religion has tried to take over this nation by force except ISLAM. Muslims want to convert everyone into Islam. People do not want to convert and this hurts Muslims. They resort to terrorism to achieve their goal.
I need better references then "my imam told me so".
Prophecy has been shown to be even more unreliable than weather reports. But I would take an umbrella anyway.
What the founder of Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) said about Israel?
Imam Ayatollah Ruhollah Sayyed Khomeini declared war on Israel since he founded IRI. Israel leaders are afraid because IRI wants to annihilate Israel and Israeli people for good.
What you expect, Israel wants to defend their people from extermination. It is natural reaction to encourage courtiers like the US to stop IRI aggression.
Muslims are not trustworthy. Others notice that and do not trust them. Let me give you one example: I thought to do my 10+ 2 studies in a city. But I could not find room to rent. Why? Because I am a Muslim and people think I might be a terrorist! Finally, I found a room in a house of a Muslim family. In the first day the landlord came to my room and started preaching jihad! When I said killing is wrong, he started shouting at me. When I asked him about honor killing and stoning, he responded by throwing my luggage out of his house. I can’t go to another city as I do not have enough money to go far places. This is my personal example. As a Muslims I suffer but whose fault is it? Can we blame the non-Muslims for distrusting us when all we think of is how to kill them and how to shove our religion down their throat?
In fact, here is what I know for sure:
The Qur'an teaches that Islam is the continued faithful religion in the same line as the Prophets who were before Muhammad: The same religion has He established for you as that which He enjoined on Noah ... and that which We enjoined on Abraham, Moses, and Jesus (42:13 AYA). The result of this view is that the scriptures given by these Prophets are considered to be genuine scriptures from God: But say, "We (Muslims) believe in the Revelation which has come down to us and in that which came down to you (Jews & Christians); our Allah and your Allah is One" (29:46 AYA).
In the past Hinduism had evil teachings such as baal vivaah (marriage of children), sati sahagaman (burning of widows), etc. Today Hindus have adopted widow marriage, girl education, etc. In the past the Church used to burn witches and infidels. Now that practice is abandoned. What I mean to say is, every religion has changed and the bad things in them are history. But Islam remains the same and it cannot change. Stoning, child marriage, wife abuse, polygamy, killing of apostates, are still there and will remain part of Islam for ever.
After Mubarak's fall a year ago, Christians grew increasingly worried over the rising power of Muslim conservatives. Several churches were attacked by mobs, fueled in part by hard-line Islamic clerics who grew bolder in accusations that Christians were seeking to covert Muslim women or even take over the country. Christian anger over the violence was further stoked when troops harshly put down a Christian protest in Cairo, killing 27 people.
Muslims, all you know is lie, lie, lie, lie...
http://news.ca.msn.com/world/pope-shenouda-iii-of-coptic-christian-church-dies
This supposedly war with Iran will bankrupt the US. The second world war completely bankrupt Europe and brought into light a new superpower, the United state. I believe a war with Iran will do the same to the United States which will in turn speed up the rise of China as the new superpower.
Well, if this is what you believe than you must realize that AVOIDING a war with Iran is the utmost priority to the United States and the rest of the world. The ONLY way to avoid a war with Iran is to CONVINCE Iranian leaders to give up their nuclear weapons program.
Mohammed, you are as naive as Fareed, or is this all just Liberal opinions? Not really, right?
How can you call Iran "rational". They have said outright that they WILL blow Israel off the map. Not if, when.
And to say that this is all about Israel just wanting to drag the US in war with entire middle east? Mohammed – We Are already at war with a lot of the middle east, at least in position, if not some battles (those who are also allies with Russia and China).
I believe that you two are not really this dumb, your opinions/writings all must be just posturing editorials, politically driven opinions.
I'm not right or left by the way, and follow most media outlets, radio and tv etc.
Guys, you're letting hatred get the best of you. Imagine this:
A country declares out and open that they are going to annihilate the USA.
The same country tries to arm itself with nuclear weapons.
What would the USA do? (That is a rhetoric question)
Now try to imagine the same thing happens to a much smaller and more vulnerable country than the USA. And a country that belongs to a nation that had faced annihilation many times, last time less than 70 years ago.
what should we do?
Oh I forgot, we are just money-grubbing Jesus-crucifying world-dominating Jews and the world is better off without us....
(The writer is an Israeli)
An as to this article. The claim of the writer that the current conflict with Iran is not an existential issue for Israel is ridiculous. Of course there also other motives, but Iran is a dictatorship ruled by religious fanatics that silence whoever dares to speak against them.
To bet of their sanity and rational behavior is a luxury we can't afford.
ناشطون سربوا آلاف الرسائل من بريد الأسد وزوجته أسماء (الفرنسية)
كشفت مجموعة من الرسائل الإلكترونية التي يعتقد بأنها تخص الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد وحصلت عليها صحيفة ذي غارديان البريطانية أنه تلقى خلال الثورة السورية نصائح وتوجيهات من إيران وجهات حليفة عن سبل مواجهة الانتفاضة الشعبية الواسعة التي تطالب برحيله عن السلطة.
وقبل كلمة الأسد -التي ألقاها عبر التلفزيون في ديسمبر/كانون الأول الماضي- تظهر الرسائل أنه تلقى مذكرة تحمل لائحة طويلة من الاقتراحات من مستشاره الإعلامي، الذي أوضح بأنه استشار بدوره "عددا لا بأس به من الشخصيات بالإضافة إلى المستشار السياسي للسفير الإيراني في دمشق".
"
قام الأسد بتشكيل حلقة من المساعدين الثقاة الذين يرفعون تقاريرهم إليه شخصيا متخطيا بذلك الأجهزة الأمنية وأعضاء طائفته العلوية المتنفذة، الأمر الذي يعتبر تطورا هاما في طريقة عمل النظام السوري
"
وقد تضمنت المذكرة نصيحة للأسد باستخدام لغة "قوية وعنيفة" في خطابه وأن يحرص على إظهار امتنانه من الدعم الذي تبديه "الدول الصديقة". كما نصحت المذكرة بأن يقوم الأسد بإظهار مدى القوة العسكرية التي تتمتع بها سوريا وأنها قادرة على مواجهة تحد عسكري.
كما كشفت الرسائل التي تم تنزيلها من قبل ناشطين سوريين من حسابات بريد إلكتروني خاصة بالأسد وزوجته السيدة أسماء، أن الأسد تلقى تقارير عن وجود صحفيين أجانب في حي بابا عمرو في حمص، وأصدر توجيهات بناء على ذلك في نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني الماضي تقضي بـ"تشديد القبضة الأمنية" على المدينة وبابا عمرو بالذات.
وتبين الرسائل أن الأسد خلال الانتفاضة السورية، قد قام بتشكيل حلقة من المساعدين الثقاة الذين يرفعون تقاريرهم إليه شخصيا متخطيا بذلك الأجهزة الأمنية وأعضاء طائفته العلوية المتنفذة، الأمر الذي يعتبر تطورا هاما في طريقة عمل النظام السوري، ومؤشرا على شعوره بالخطر الداهم.
وكانت الرسائل الإلكترونية التي تم رصدها تستخدم نظاما بريديا خاصا بموقع اسمه الشهباء دوت كوم، وهي مجموعة شركات تابعة للنظام السوري لها مكاتب في دبي ولندن. وقد تم اختراق نظام الرسائل الإلكترونية للموقع في شهر يونيو/حزيران الماضي واستمر الناشطون بالتمتع بدخول حر وكامل للحسابات البريدية ونسخ كل شيء موجود فيها. استمر هذا الوضع حتى تم اكتشاف الاختراق في فبراير/شباط الماضي أي بعد ستة أشهر.
وتلقي الرسائل الضوء على قيام الأسد بتشكيل لجنة من المستشارين لوضع إستراتيجية إعلامية وكيفية مواجهة موجة الانتقادات العالمية المتصاعدة ضد قمعه للانتفاضة الشعبية السورية المطالبة برحيله عن السلطة، والتي ذهب ضحيتها حوالي عشرة آلاف سوري إلى حد الآن حسب تقديرات حديثة.
وقد منح اختراق حسابات البريد الإلكتروني للأسد فرصة للناشطين لتحذير زملائهم في دمشق من نوايا النظام السوري في مناسبات عديدة.
وقد وفر الاختراق معلومات هامة وحساسة عن النظام السوري ورئيسه، ومن بينها رسائل من رجل أعمال لبناني يتمتع بصلات وثيقة مع النظام الإيراني وحزب الله اسمه حسين مرتضى. وقد قام مرتضى طبقا للرسائل بالكتابة إلى الرئيس الأسد بعد حادثة انفجار سيارتين في دمشق قبيل وصول المراقبين العرب، وحثّ مرتضى الأسد على التوقف عن اتهام القاعدة بتدبير انفجارات السيارات المفخخة، وأفاد مرتضى بأن اتصالات وردته من إيران وحزب الله توافقه الرأي ووصف اتهام القاعدة بأنه خطأ إعلامي تكتيكي يصب في مصلحة الولايات المتحدة والمعارضة السورية.
"
رجل أعمال لبناني مقرب من إيران وحزب الله نصح الأسد بالسيطرة على الميادين والساحات العامة بين الساعة الثالثة عصرا والتاسعة مساء لحرمان المعارضين السوريين من فرصة التجمع
"
وفي رسالة أخرى، أبدى مرتضى للأسد اعتقاده بأن على قوات النظام السوري السيطرة على الميادين والساحات العامة بين الساعة الثالثة عصرا والتاسعة مساء لحرمان المعارضين السوريين من فرصة التجمع.
يذكر أن إيران وحزب الله قد كانا متهمين طوال سنة -هي عمر الانتفاضة السورية ضد الأسد-، بأنهما يقدمان دعما عمليا على الأرض لنظام الأسد، مثل إرسال مقاتلين وخبراء تقنيين لتعقب الناشطين السوريين الذين يستخدمون الإنترنت، إلا أن كلا من إيران وحزب الله قد دأبا على إنكار تلك التهم.
من جهة أخرى كشفت المراسلات المسربة أن الأسد اعتمد بشكل كبير على امرأتين سوريتين درستا في الولايات المتحدة، في مجال الاستشارات الإعلامية. وتظهر المراسلات أن المرأتين هما شهرزاد الجعفري وهديل العلي واللتان دأبتا على إحاطة الأسد بأهمية التواصل على شبكة الإنترنت.
وكان التلفزيون السوري قد أفاد في فبراير/شباط بعد اكتشاف الاختراق وقبل نشر الرسائل المسربة أن العناوين الخاصة بموقع الشهباء دوت كوم لا تمت بصلة للرئيس الأسد وذلك في محاولة لنزع الثقة عن أي ترسيبات مستقبلية.
i think we all will be fools to be converted by the vision of a few blood thirsty individuals who just want to see their goals achieve, thus religion which has been seen as the best way to get to the heart and minds of people with little or no question is being used to draw people to that claim, i think is time we start fighting those ideas and not targeting religions, for more innocent people will die, the more we talk of religious differences and misinterpreted teachings the more these killers hide behind it, so we should stop talking about Islam, Christianize, Hindu Jews or any other religious movement will help us get those terrorist, 'HATE TRIUMPHS WERE LOVE IS BIASED AND DIVIDED'
My God says "love your enemies." You may ask why. It is because you can NEVER win your enemy over with hate.
The author of this article is clearly pro-Iranian and supports a nuclar armed Iran. Iran has always been a nuclear threat to the world and needs to be delt with. It consistently violates the IAEA standards and was a member of the IAEA.
the afgani investigation and the international lab proved now that 15 usa soldiers was involved of killing more than 16 children and women, and that 15 soldiers ra pe 2 afgani ladies young ladies ra pe them repeatdley and then shot them dead and burned there bodies , exactley as it happened in iraq when usa soldiers ra ped 14 years old girl then shot her and shot her parents and brothers and burned there bodies ...usa did that in vitnam ,korea and many other places they are murderous thugs ra piest killers and OBAMA say soyy all the time!!?/while leaving evil iranians and evil syrian bashar al asad killing more civilians obama is a cowered president if obama want to fix this problem he must attack syria now and remove bashar al asad to show to the muslim world that he mean it, remove the evil in syria now and prove your point OBAMA.......why you are silent...SILENCE IS A CRIME.
why you lie, lie is a crime.
I agree usa ra ped 2 women it is all over the news in bbc , cbc ctv and al jazeera....usa want to keep it silent.. those evil are worse than the evil muslims and towel heads...killing chioldren by usa considered heroic act, mmmmmmmmmmmmmm fk you all towel heads nirds and cowerds fk u patrick and your alllhhh
WHERE ARE YOUR REFERENCES MORON?
THE SHIIA LIES THEY CALLE IT TAQYA...GO TO GOOGLE.COM AND SEARCH FOR SHIIA TAQEYA YOU WILL SEE THAT LIES IS GOOD IN ISLAM SHIIA ISLAM TO BE SPECIFIC THEY LIES SO IT IS OK AND THEY LIES SO THE SHIIA MAHDI CAN ARRIVE mmmmmmmmmmmmm WHAT MAHDI SH IT FK MAHDI AND JALABI AND JA3FARI FK FATUIMA AND ALI AND AL HASANI AND AL PAJAJI FK ALI AL KHOMINI FK AL SESTANI FK U ALL TOWEL HEADS SHIIA THGUGS FK KHAMENI AND AHMEDI NEJAD THE NIRD.....ALL RETARD...FK IRAN AND BASHAR AL ASAD.......FK U MOTAA STYLE
I FK ED IRANIAN LADIES AND THEY ARE THE BEST PU SSIES EVER , I WISH USA CAN INVADE IRAN SO WE CAN HAVE SOME MOTAA.....MOTAA IS SHIIA LEGAL ADULTERY..............
iraqi shiia are thugs
moqtada al sadder and mahdi militia the terrorists iraqi shiia let go one usa soldeir that they captured since 2011 and they say we let him go as free well juster !!!!!!why you captured him in the first place you peace of sh it shiia thugs , he was defending you ..why shiia killed many usa people in iraq and iran, becuase they are terrorists thugs...usa should start attacking bashar al asad in syria hizboallah , and iraqi shiia change those thugs and terrorists before we deal with iran, the time is for the shiia to be hit hard so they can give up arm and terrorizim...
التيار الصدري يفرج عن جندي أميركي
مقتدى الصدر أمر الجناح العسكري للتيار بالإفراج عن الرقيب هيلز (وكالة الأنباء الأوروبية) أفرج التيار الصدري السبت في بغداد عن أميركي قال إنه جندي محتجز منذ صيف عام 2011، وأوضح أن الافراج جاء "لأسباب إنسانية".
وقالت النائبة العراقية بالتيار الصدري مهى الدوري إن مقتدى الصدرأمر الجناح العسكري للتيار بالإفراج عن المواطن الأميركي، مضيفة أنه جندي يدعى راندي مايكل هيلز وهو رقيب متقاعد يبلغ من العمر 59 عاما.
كما ذكر مصدر بالتيار في النجف أن الافراج تم لأسباب إنسانية، لافتا إلى عدم حصول أي مفاوضات مباشرة أو غير مباشرة مع الأميركيين أو أي جانب آخر.
وأضاف المصدر نفسه أن الإفراج عن المواطن الأميركي يمثل بادرة حسن نية من زعيم التيار مقتدى الصدر للدلالة على "القيم الأخلاقية والإنسانية والعقائدية للمقاومة الإسلامية العراقية".
وسلم الجندي المفرج عنه إلى بعثة الأمم المتحدة في بغداد التي نقلته إلى السفارة الأميركية، وأكد المتحدث باسم السفارة أن هيلز مواطن أميركي دون تقديم مزيد من التفاصيل.
وفي تصريحات مقتضبة للصحفيين، قال هيلز إنه أرسل للعراق عام 2003، وعمل بادئ الأمر جنديا لمدة 15 شهرا.
وأضاف أنه ظل في العراق بصفة مدنية منذ ذلك الحين وحتى يونيو 2011 عندما أخدته عناصر من "اليوم الموعود" رهينة، في إشارة إلى مليشيا لواء اليوم الموعود التابعة لجيش المهدي.
يُذكر أن وزارة الدفاع الأميركية (بنتاغون) تقول إنه لم يتم إدراج أي فرد من جنودها رهينة بالعراق منذ استعادة رفات آخر جندي مفقود الشهر الماضي.
Where are the "good guys" in all of this? I cannot find any no matter how hard I look from any angle. What are the real motives behind the disagreement, oil, religion, race, style of government? I applaud President Obama's wisdom in advocating restraint but discouraging hostile acts by any party, to me, he appears to be the sanest leader in a world long gone insane.
Ok so I am thinking about removing my website from Tumbler and get it to a WordPress site. I believe this is a wordpress site right? If it is, may I ask where you got the theme? Thanks a bunch!
WASHINGTON - Planning for an air war against Iran continues inside the Pentagon, and the U.S. Air Force could mount such intense strikes against Iranian targets that "you wouldn't want to be in the area," said Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, the Air Force chief of staff, on Wednesday.
Indeed, some senior military officers and air power specialists caution that putting a decisive end to Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions would require a massive, all-out war - not only to demolish Iran's nuclear facilities but to destroy its governing regime.
President Barack Obama has said the United States is "determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal." The United States and others are now tightening financial and trade sanctions to force Tehran to abandon its nuclear weapons program. But the Obama administration has not spelled out precisely what "prevent" means, and administration officials have been careful not to set clear military objectives.
In a meeting with defense reporters Wednesday, Schwartz deflected a question by The Huffington Post about whether air power alone could "end" Iran's nuclear weapons program.
"It really depends," he said. "What is the objective? Is it to eliminate? Is it to delay? Is it to complicate? The larger question here is more one of policy" than of military capability, he said.
The Air Force, along with the other military services, has given the White House a series of options for attacking Iran, Schwartz said. Other government agencies have provided political, financial and additional options.
As far as the military options are concerned, Schwartz said that Marine Gen. James Mattis, the Mideast combat commander who would oversee a war with Iran, "is satisfied that we have been as forthcoming and imaginative as possible" in the planning.
"We and each of the other services each contribute, and we are prepared to do so," Schwartz added. He declined to provide specific details about the war planning.
Among the weapons that could be used against Iran is the 20-foot-long, 15-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), designed to be used against deep-buried targets such as the nuclear reprocessing plant shielded by 250 feet of granite in a mountain outside the holy city of Qom, according to a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Although the MOP has encountered technical problems in its development, Schwartz said it is "operational."
But making effective use of such a weapon requires a broad, coordinated effort among hundreds of aircraft, retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, an F-15 combat pilot who planned the complex 1991 air war against Iraq and other operations, told The Huffington Post. "Executing an air campaign is not just flying from A to B and dropping a bunch of bombs and coming home," he said.
In the event of an attack, missiles, bombers and strike fighters would be sent against Iran's air defenses, which Schwartz said have recently been strengthened. Other aircraft would be targeted on Iran's nuclear sites, accompanied by command-and-control aircraft, airborne electronic countermeasures and electronic warfare systems, all choreographed with aerial tankers "and put together in such a way that the timing is impeccable and each part of the overall mission reinforces other parts," Deptula explained.
"It would be a formidable air campaign, but it could be accomplished," Deptula said. And it would take the United States to do it. "The Israelis have one of the most excellent, innovative air forces in the world - that's not at issue," he said. But with the distances to be covered to reach Iran and the limited number of refueling tankers that Israel can provide, "there is a capacity issue."
How effective could such a broad air campaign be? "You can set them back months to years," Deptula said. "But ultimately you are going to have to deal with the same problem again. One of the biggest challenges is you are dealing with a theocracy, a bunch of zealots, and that's the quandary."
"No one wants to talk about regime change. But if you want to put an end to this problem, I am afraid to say it will require a change of regime in Iran," he said.
Nonetheless, like other senior commanders, Deptula urged caution when talking about attacking Iran. "Everybody is talking about the kinetic [military] option," he said. "But first, a highly orchestrated symphony of diplomatic, economic and information pieces have to be assembled into a coherent whole to accomplish our end game, and that has to be done before we talk about military options."
That view parallels the thinking of retired Marine Gen. James "Hoss" Cartwright, who left last summer as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is a former fighter pilot and from 2004 to 2007 led the U.S. Strategic Command, which has responsibility for global nuclear and conventional strategic attack missions.
Iran's nuclear facilities are "not a pinpoint target," Cartwright warned during a panel discussion last week at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. He said Iran has been "very clever" about siting its nuclear facilities, some in remote locations and some deep underground where "there are not weapons that can penetrate."
Asked about that assertion Wednesday, Schwartz acknowledged that deep underground targets are difficult to destroy. "Strike is about physics, and the deeper you go, the harder it gets," he said. But he said the MOP "is not an inconsequential capability."
Cartwright insisted last week that any air strike would fall short of the goal of ending Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"Really," he said, "to take care of this problem kinetically is going to require quite a few [U.S. military] people on the ground, which is not likely to happen. So you can do air strikes to cause havoc, and then what?"
If Iran has the will to push forward with development of a nuclear weapon, it has the intellectual capacity to accomplish that, Cartwright said, and it can continue to spread out nuclear weapons sites beyond the ability of the United States to find them all.
In short, he said, "a kinetic attack is a delaying tactic. A strategy that would deny Iran nuclear weapons probably requires an invasion and change of regime."
Paradoxically, an attack on predominantly Shia Iran will end up alienating the Sunni-dominated Muslim Middle East from the United States for a long time to come.
How do you figure? I thought that Shia's hated Sunni's almost as much as westerners. If it weren't for the west they'd already be focused on slaughtering each other.
Do you know what would make Iran a 'rational actor?'
They could have just stopped their nuclear program for a short time to allow inspectors and the rest of the world to get some different idea about their program. It would have helped diplomacy and given them some status in the world besides being a pariah, terrorist supporting state, where human rights are trampled.
Instead, starting in June or July, we will see the ruin of the Iranian economy. Is that a rational result? If that doesn't work, then certain countries are going to use military force to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Now there's a rational result.
When, because they are SO ratinal, they retaliate against Israel or the United States, what do you think well happen? I think you will see the destruction of a significant portion of the Iranian military. First, as you know, they destroy the infrastructure that supports the military. That means water, food, electrical, bridges and highways. Now there's a rational result.
Whenever I hear some fool use that term, I just want to smack the user. The user seems to think that if the country thinks it's rational, then it's rational. What a huge crock that is. I guess Hitler was rational too, wasn't he? Of course he was. Till he wasn't.
The reason that Israel is advocating a military response to Iran's nuclear program is because for around 10 years, diplomacy has FAILED. It's not Israel who has said that this is an existential threat, it's the barbaric words of the Iranian president. Both the governments of Israel and the United States are STILL committed to diplomacy. How they remain patient with a beligerant, dangerous nation like Iran is beyond me. Unless they were waiting for the delivery of a more effective bomb. By the way, that new bomb has just been delivered. I'm sure Iranians can rationalize the smoking holes where their nuclear program used to be.
This is just another phoney Iranian apologetic, anti-Semitic article.
The "evil" Zionist regime, the "Little Satan", "has no right to exist", "should be destroyed", "will be destroyed", "we promise, by Allah, to destroy them." So has progressed the proclamations from the Mullah's of the Islamic Republic of Iran's mouthpiece Achmadinijab. And Israel doesn't really see them as an existential threat, it's only political power Israel seeks in a military attack against Iran's nuclear weopons ability? Do do you think you fool?
Reading the comments on all these weblogs I see that there will be a genocide of Muslims coming at the hands of hatemongers. The aparthied in Israel, the control foreign countries through backdoor channels and overt threats is already there to see for anyone who cares to open their eyes.
However open mass killings will start. The time to go to the mountains as the prophet said has come. The anti christ will come and fool everyone. So run to the mountains for you will be decieved if you stay.
It's hard to see how 5 million Jewish Israelis are going to perform a genocide on 100 million Moslems? But anyway, I invite you to Tel Aviv where you can see for yourself the Jewish population and the Arab population studying together at univeristies, dining together in restaurants, shopping together at malls and going to the park togetherat holidays . The way to make a better world is not by running for the hills, my friend, but by getting to know your 'enemy'. You will find he surprisingly resembles yourself.
Is there any chance that Iran will attempt to make creation of a Palestinian state a condition for accepting limitations and inspections regarding their enrichment program? It occurred to me that this could be a big enough prize for the Iranian regime to consider a bargain. I am thinking the regime could gain prestige, influence, political legitimacy, termination of sanctions/improved economic conditions, just to name a few items. Wouldn't this obligate the US to finally pressure Israel to implement a two state solution? Thoughts? Am I dreaming?
Israel does not want war against Iran. Bombing nuclear facilities is not war. There is no chance of an Israeli invasion and, frankly, that idea is humorous given Israel's size and the great difficulties that Israel had in the Yom Kippur War, which was a defensive war and fairly short.
Stop spreading lies. Thanks.
Presidents of both Israel and Iran (please don't ask me to spell their names) have made political gains on fearmongering, so I doubt the war rhetoric will cool until they're both cycled out of politics. The Ayatolla may roar and froth at Israel, but he's placed a fatwa against nuclear weaponization, and I don't believe he's the kind of man who would do that as an empty foreign relations gesture. So either their claims about their development is purely for peaceful purposes is true, or there's another Iranian faction working toward nuclear arms against their own law.
Jews are going to start ww3....let them go at it alone.
well put. we've had likudnik morons in power in israel for far too long. were they to be replaced, their neighbors would have no excuse not to behave themselves.
Jerusalem is the capitol of Israel, not Tel Aviv. And if Mr. Ahmedinejad is a 'rational actor', then I am Donald Duck.
Notice the passive naurtel Sectarian violence is nothing new here. Sectarian violence runs one direction. A more informative reportage without ulterior motives would describe it thus Muslim violence against religious minorities especially Jews and Christians, is nothing new here .or where-ever Mohammadeans gather in numbers.