Editor's Note: Soner Cagaptay is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a GPS contributor. You can find all his blog posts here. The views expressed in this article are solely those of Soner Cagaptay.
By Soner Cagaptay - Special to CNN
A visit to Gaziantep, a Turkish city near the Syrian border, suggests that Turkey’s policy on Syria is evolving in parallel to Bashar al-Assad's crackdown: The more brutally al-Assad acts against its own people, the more serious Ankara’s steps.
When the uprising began a year ago, Ankara initially took the more diplomatic road, suggesting that al-Assad launch political reforms and refrain from using violence when dealing with the demonstrations. Damascus, however, chose not to listen to Ankara’s advice. Locals in Gaziantep who have relatives and business partners in Syria add that the regime’s crackdown has only intensified over the past months.
Increasing violence against the civilian population brought Ankara to the second phase of its Syria policy - namely taking the issue to the U.N. in the hopes of securing a Security Council resolution to call for an end to the regime’s brutality. That effort, too, did not bear fruit: Russian and Chinese vetoes have thus far blocked U.N.-sponsored action to end the conflict in Syria.
Al-Assad has found encouragement in the fact that the U.N. Security Council will not condemn him, increasing the ferocity of his crackdown. Hence, Ankara’s Syria policy, which evolves in tandem with the brutality of al-Assad’s crackdown, is now moving into its next phase, building a case for delivering humanitarian assistance to the civilian population.
With the U.N. Security Council unable to help innocent Syrians, Ankara envisions putting the “Kosovo model” into action. In 1999, when Russia blocked a U.N. Security Council decision for action in Kosovo, the United States, Turkey, and other powers formed an ad hoc international coalition to end the conflict. That coalition effort succeeded.
Recently, a “Friends of Syria” initiative has coalesced, composed of countries calling for international action to end the al-Assad regime’s crackdown. Ankara’s next step against al-Assad is to turn to this coalition, as well as the Arab League, to lead the international community’s efforts to deliver humanitarian assistance to the civilians of Syria from cities in southern Turkey.
This step may in fact succeed, bringing relief to conflict-stricken Syrians. However, it is unlikely that delivering humanitarian assistance will end the conflict. Al-Assad appears poised to continue his crackdown in the hopes of crushing the opposition. This, unfortunately, suggests even more casualties. That, in turn, begs the question of what Ankara’s next step will be.
Ankara will likely not sit idly by as the al-Assad regime continues to kill fellow Muslims next door. Accordingly, Turkey’s policy will become more active in the coming days. One such scenario could involve Turkey arming the Syrian opposition.
Ankara already hosts part of the Syrian opposition, including members of the civilian Syrian National Council in Istanbul and elements of the Free Syrian Army in Antakya (ancient Antioch) along the border.
While the nuts and bolts of Ankara’s potential decision to arm the opposition would need to be worked out in greater detail, if such a policy also fails to convince al-Assad to stop his crackdown, Turkey would likely move to implement the next phase of its Syria policy, calling for no-fly zones inside Syria to protect civilians.
Akin to similar zones previously established in Iraq and Bosnia, such a no-fly zone would keep the al-Assad regime out of designated areas in which the civilians would come under the protection of the international community. NATO, Arab, and Turkish forces could each play different roles in protecting these safe havens. This strategy would not only protect civilians but also provide a likely counter-balance against the al-Assad regime in order to facilitate his downfall.
At the moment, however, a no-fly zone in Syria is likely Ankara’s last resort. Turkey appears determined to steer clear of a full-scale military intervention to end the conflict.
Ankara believes that putting Turkish boots on the ground would make Turkey a party to the Syrian war, opening up a Pandora’s Box of risky issues, such as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group which has traditionally possessed a significant infrastructure inside Syria. Although the al-Assad regime froze all anti-Turkish PKK activity in Syria in 1999 when Ankara threatened Damascus with war, it is not far-fetched to suggest that the PKK in Syria is merely sleeping and could awaken at the sight of Turkish troops in that country.
Visiting towns in southern Turkey that have suffered from past PKK attacks, one can see this fear visibly, with the locals suggesting: “A Turkish intervention in Syria might just boomerang, ratcheting up PKK attacks.”
Add to this other concerns: Turkish troops on the ground could cost Ankara dearly, eroding the soft power it has painstakingly built in the Middle East in the past decade, and it becomes nearly certain that Turkey’s options in Syria are not without limits.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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they should as turkey has more then 12,000 turkish citrizen in syria and all are suuni same in kerkuk iraq, the shiia are killing turkis and kurdish, syria took lathqeya port and its belong to turkey they can invade any time we want them we are in syria and the kiiling of shiia is non stop , daily ra pe killing by those syrian shiia thugs who are only 8% of the population.. attack syria now before it is too late , bashar al asad is a war criminal he killed 14,000 civilian till now...
What about the Turks slaughtering the Kurds day after day in Eastern Turkey? All these people want is their well deserved independence, something they haven't had since the 2nd cetury BC in what is now Ukraine, being driven out by the Sarmatians!
It appears to me Old Man Clark, that you and I are the only ones here who understand the Kurds, their history and their aspirations! Every other ignoramus here is going to take up for Turkey and the fact that it's a NATO member. I say that that's not good enough!!!
You know sh.t about Kurds Old Man Clark !They never been a country and never required any independence thanks to British! After Turkish Independence War to protect for their own benefit Musul and Kirkuk petrols Brits planted freedom seeds among Kurds, So without knowing a politics or emperial countries or Turkey's situation do not assume a thing!
Your grammar is a crime.
But the grammar is not the issue here!
Sir/Madam: Your 12000 Turks in Syria is inaccurate. Al least one half of the Syrian population has some kind of Turkish blood in them. Yours truly included!!!???
Why not? Turkey is no different from any other NATO member. They will invade Syria if Washington tells to to, no questions asked!!!
Young Man Abdul, read and learn:
The beginning of the end for the first world war came not on the killing fields of Europe but with the conquest of Damascus. TE Lawrence, the young British officer who was a pivotal figure in the first Arab revolt, recognised the importance of Damascus to the Turks. He believed that capturing this historic city would lead to the collapse of the Ottoman empire, and eventually the defeat of the Central Powers.
Today, Damascus is no less important to her neighbour in the north. That is why Turkey is heading the latest efforts to pressurise the Assad regime against killing Syrian civilians.
On Tuesday Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, the architect of its "zero-problems" foreign policy, visited Damascus to tell President Assad that Turkey's patience had run out and (unofficially of course) to deliver a message from the US that Assad must send his soldiers back to their barracks immediately.
Davutoglu has been extremely sketchy with the details of the six-hour series of meetings with Assad and his team, but it is clear that the Syrian regime has rebuffed him. Almost immediately after the meeting, and while Davutoglu was still flying back to Ankara, the Syrian regime announced that it rejected any foreign interference and would continue its campaign against what it calls "armed terrorist groups".
But this is not going to be the last we see from Turkey regarding Syria; far from it.
It is no coincidence that only a day or so after the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, announced his patience with Assad was "running thin", Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah delivered his astonishingly scathing criticism of the Syrian regime.
It is also no coincidence that, shortly afterwards, we saw the Saudi, Kuwaiti, and Bahraini ambassadors recalled home from Damascus "for consultations".
What this shows is that the Arab kingdoms (and the US) have unofficially nominated Turkey to lead the campaign against Assad's regime. But while the motivations of the Arab states – cutting off Iran's hand in the Arab world – are clear, those driving Turkey's interests are much more complex and interesting.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/10/turkey-syria-complex-relationship
قصف على أحد الأحياء في سوريا (الجزيرة)
كشفت تسريبات لما يبدو أنها وثائق سورية رسمية كيف يوقع الرئيس بشار الأسد شخصيا على الخطط التي يضعها مركز إدارة الأزمة في حكومته محددا أولوية الحملة الأمنية الصارمة لمنع زحف المتظاهرين ضد نظامه إلى دمشق.
وقالت صحيفة غارديان البريطانية إن مئات الصفحات من الوثائق السرية التي قدمها منشق لقناة الجزيرة تصف الاجتماعات اليومية لجميع قادة وكالتي الأمن والاستخبارات السورية الذين يراجعون الأحداث ويصدرون الأوامر التي يصدق عليها الرئيس بعد ذلك. كما أوردت وكالة أنباء إنترفاكس الروسية أن قوة عسكرية لمكافحة الإرهاب وصلت إلى ميناء طرطوس السوري على متن ناقلة بترول من أسطولها في البحر الأسود.
وأشارت الصحيفة إلى أن القوة بلغت وجهتها في وقت أيدت فيه الحكومة الروسية دعوة من الصليب الأحمر لهدنة ساعتين يوميا للسماح بوصول المعونة إلى المناطق الأسوأ ضررا بسبب العنف.
وفي خضم تقارير عن قتال في ضاحية المزة بدمشق أمس -الأعنف في العاصمة منذ بدء الانتفاضة قبل عام- قالت الجزيرة إن الوثائق هُربت خارج سوريا بواسطة عبد المجيد بركات رئيس قسم المعلومات بوحدة إدراة الأزمة للدولة والذي يختبئ حاليا في تركيا مع نشطاء المعارضة.
وتلقي أحدث الوثائق مزيدا من الضوء المباشر على إستراتيجية النظام ضد الانتفاضة، بما في ذلك حشد آلاف المليشيات المعروفين بالشبيحة وأعضاء حزب البعث السوري في عمليات صممت لقطع دمشق وحلب وإدلب والمدن الكبيرة الأخرى عن المناطق المحيطة.
وكما كشفت الوثائق أن الميادين الرئيسية في العاصمة تقع مسؤوليتها على أفرع مختلفة بجهاز الأمن السوري الكبير، بما في ذلك مديرية استخبارات القوات الجوية السيئة السمعة التي كثيرا ما اتهمها مؤيدو المعارضة السورية وجمعيات حقوق الإنسان الأجنبية بالوحشية والتعذيب.
سحق المتظاهرين
وفيما يتعلق بأيام الجمع، حيث تبلغ الاحتجاجات المناوئة للنظام ذروتها منذ بدء الانتفاضة، تنص الخطط على عزل العاصمة عبر 35 نقطة تفتيش للتحكم في الحركة. وتُغلق الطرق المؤدية لدمشق من المدن المجاورة على نحو متكرر وتُنشر قوة من ألف فرد أمن في وسط ميدان أمية وحده.
"
الوثائق أوضحت أن الأسد شخصيا متورط في المصادقة على إجراءات سحق الاضطرابات. وتوقيعه كان ظاهرا على إحدى الوثائق التي تخول عقوبات بالسجن للمظاهرات غير القانونية
"
قناة الجزيرة/غارديان
ومن جانبها قالت قناة الجزيرة إن الوثائق أوضحت أن الأسد شخصيا متورط في المصادقة على إجراءات سحق الاضطرابات. وتوقيعه كان ظاهرا على إحدى الوثائق التي تخول عقوبات بالسجن للمظاهرات غير القانونية.
وفي إحدى الوثائق المسربة السرية حذرت الحكومة وزير الخارجية بشأن دول تحاول إقناع دبلوماسيين سوريين بالانشقاق.
وقالت الجزيرة: "كل مساء في تمام الساعة السابعة بتوقيت دمشق هناك اجتماع لكل رؤساء الأمن والاستخبارات لمراجعة ما حدث عبر البلاد أثناء اليوم ويعدون خططهم وأوامرهم لليوم التالي. وهذه الخطط تذهب لمكتب الرئيس الصباح التالي ويقوم هو شخصيا بتوقيع كل الأوامر ويعطي الضوء الأخضر النهائي".
ووصفت الجزيرة بركات كجاسوس معارض داخل القيادة التي توجه حملة فرض النظام والذي أدرك الشهر الماضي أن حياته معرضة للخطر وفر من البلد ومعه 1400 وثيقة تعتقد القناة أنها حقيقية.
وفي مقابلة مع القناة الفضائية بقطر قال بركات إن "مهمتي كانت نقل المعلومات للمعارضة داخليا وخارجيا. وأي شخص يقرأ هذه التقارير سيُصدم وسيدرك أن سوريا تعيش أزمة حقيقية من التقتيل والإجرام وقمع المتظاهرين. لكن رؤساء الأمن يرسمون صورة وردية في تقاريرهم ويتجاهلون حقائق هامة كثيرة على الأرض فقط لرفع معنويات الرئيس".
ومن جانبها لم تعلق الحكومة السورية على الوثائق. وقال التلفزيون الرسمي السوري إن ثلاثة "إرهابيين" وعضوا في قوات الأمن قُتلوا في معركة دمشق.
ومن الجدير بالذكر أن ميناء طرطوس يمثل الآن القاعدة البحرية الوحيدة لروسيا خارج الاتحاد السوفياتي السابق. وقد زار أسطول بحري روسي المكان في يناير/كانون الثاني فيما اعتبر من قبل كثيرين عرضا لتأييد موسكو الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد.
Gee, this bozo doesn't ever have the enough nerve to post the above in Russian, let alone English!!!
and you are fluent in Russian, as well as your native Arab?
Yes, he is war criminal but the world want to save him, they are praying for him to servive, shame on this world, shame on its leader, we can be lower than that....
Shame on this world who want to save the Assad, shame on its leaders, it's can't be lower than that....
Shame on you for lying.
Shame on you for thinking we are all as stupid as you.
Shame on you for pulling facts out of your as s and thinking you do not have to provide valid and reliable sources.
What confuses me is I Turkey wants to be the big boy in the Muslim world. They are a moderate Muslim nation who are trying to build militarily and politically. They, as well as the Arab nations should be taking the lead on this issue and step up. As the world sits and watches with heartbreak what's going on there, sooner or later someone in Europe or even the U.S. is going to intervene, and I don't want to hear a word about infidel boots walking on holy ground. Clean up your own garbage or someone else will have to. Step up Turkey and be the leader you claim to be.
Joe
http://www.waiting4departure.com
Turkey has good credentials as member of different international organisations: NATO, OSCE, Council of Europe and former member of the U.N. Security Council. Militarily it is part of the ISAF in Afghanistan, had fought as member of the NATO in Libya and the Balbans. Yet when it comes to Syria, it dithers, due to the Kurdish issue.
If the Turks are so good j.von hettlingen, then why don't they give the Kurds the independence they deserve? It will do well to remember that back in 1095, Pope Urban II declared the First Crusade largely due to the Turkish atrocities perpetrated on Christians living in the then newly acquired Roman territories by the Turks. They have no more right to invade Syria than any other Western country.
Historically the Kurds have suffered immensily. They have been in their country since the beginning of time and should be allowed independence.
please read: the BALKANS.....
George Patton: I thought you're not an interventionist. Leave the Turks and the Kurds sort their dispute out!
Offending her long standing neighbour, Syria will not bring any "plus" to Turkey. Any kind of armed action over-border brings about long term misgivings. Yes PKK may be another factor. PKK is just like a hyenia pack – for I respect wolf packs – who are free merchants who will fight for the highest bidder. Why add another bidder to the existing ones. Turks have relatives in Syria. After all we were one land 100 years ago. Just like Cyprus. Any armed action does bring about civil casualties. Moreover, I personally do not believe the Turkish army should land a hand to the problem caused by the Europe's messing up things before the various aspects of our peacefull military intension for saving the Cyprus Tukrs are resolved. Is anybody looking to Turkish military to end up a skirmish in Syria? On what grounds? On what definition? This is realy gross to turn back to Turkey for manpower.
I take offence deniz, at your calling the PKK a pack of hyenias. Is this how you feel about the founding fathers of this country too? After all, they fought for and are fighting for essentially the same thing, that is, their independence!!!
If there was any truth to anything you say here and in all the other forums you have been in, we might listen to you.
If you want to be heard, you have to quote your refernces and your sources.
Otherwise, your poison is all big fat islamic lies.
The fact taht PKK is a terrorist pack is approved by most decent countries. They do not fight for independence in the globaly and humanely excepted means of democracy and peacefu negotiations. Turkish citizens of Kurdish origin (I am 1/4th Kurdish by the way) now have social and cultural channels to express themselves one of which is STATE TV CHANNEL IN KURDISH. PKK hasbeen given all posible democratic means to do this whereas they chose to express themselves by trying to build up terror by use of arms. However this article is not on PKK. It is on Turkey's role in the curent conditions in Turkey. Turkey's position can be only on diplomatically accepted lines. Like in the various Gulf Wars, it is not Turkey's position to give Turish soldiers (who by the way are not merchanaries) under the commend of one or more countries wishes. By the way please do read the article befor commenting.
CORRECTION: The fact taht PKK is a terrorist pack is approved by most decent countries. They do not fight for independence in the globaly and humanely excepted means of democracy and peacefu negotiations. Turkish citizens of Kurdish origin (I am 1/4th Kurdish by the way) now have social and cultural channels to express themselves one of which is STATE TV CHANNEL IN KURDISH. PKK hasbeen given all posible democratic means to do this whereas they chose to express themselves by trying to build up terror by use of arms. However this article is not on PKK. It is on Turkey's role in the curent conditions in SYRIA. Turkey's position can be only on diplomatically accepted lines. Like in the various Gulf Wars, it is not Turkey's position to give Turish soldiers (who by the way are not merchanaries) under the commend of one or more countries wishes. By the way please do read the article befor commenting.
I just wrote to comments, but did not post, it looks like you don't post comments saying what is excatly happening, you want to keep misslead the people about what happening!!!
Turky can't do anything, Israeal still refuse to let the Assad go, they think he is thier best friend, and he is the best to protect thier borders!!
Really?? Can you quote any reliable and valid material to back your statements?
See the elephant is dying and die a very sad situation
http://upload40.com/12317.html
Syria will survive the Turkish onslaught but Turkey will be broken up! All the nations of the Middle East are to be divided along Oded Yonin's plan. Those that are pro-western are easier to divide. The Syrian army, Iran, China and Russia guarantees Syria's integrity. Watch the destruction of Turkey at the hand of Erdogan. No Eretz Israel! Greater Syria!
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