Editor's Note: Robert E. Kelly is a Senior Analyst at Wikistrat and an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Pusan National University, South Korea. A longer version of this essay may be found at his website, Asian Security Blog.
By Robert E. Kelly - Special to CNN
For all the talk about how the US might ‘pivot’ to Asia, there is little Western discussion of how China might respond to its semi-encirclement. Here are five possibilities:
1. China might pull South Korea into its orbit
China’s regional problem is that no one really trusts it. Its allies are weak – North Korea and Myanmar. The best way to head-off encirclement is to break the ring with some decent allies. Nasty, dependent dictatorships are not enough. South Korea is a central link in any semi-containment ring around China, but one where China has a lot of leverage.
Korea was Confucian China’s closest ally for a millennium. Korean and Chinese culture are close. Koreans will not tell you that China is a major enemy of Korea, no matter how many Japanese and U.S. pundits say so. Instead Japan, or even the U.S., is seen as a greater threat. The Liancourt Rocks dispute activates Koreans a lot more than China’s growth.
Korea also has a tradition of anti-Americanism. Yes, they are a good ally to the U.S., but mostly because they need America a lot more than most U.S. allies, not because of some deep affinity. Many feel the U.S. is heavily responsible for the division of the country, bullies South Korea’s leaders, unnecessarily provokes North Korea, forces unfair trade deals on the country, sends pot-smoking English teachers and soldiers to prey on their young students, etc. True or not, consider the opening this gives China.
Finally, Koreans want unity, and China is probably best placed to give it to them. If we accept that North Korea is all but dependent on China now, then China could accelerate a solution in which Korea got unity on southern terms, but only if U.S. Forces in Korea left. Yes, many Chinese see North Korea as a buffer against the robust democracies of Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. But North Korea is a losing horse. Someday it will crash, and how much does it help China now anyway?
North Korea elites are so unpredictable than the Beijing must always be wondering what they’ll do next. Chinese-backed, ‘finlandized’ unification would electrify the region, neutralize a major link in the ring, isolate Japan, and confuse the U.S.
2. Keep flattering India.
India and China will never be too close. The long border, China’s communist oligarchy, and a history of tension make the relationship tough. But China would benefit if India did not fully join the U.S. camp. In 2010, I predicted that India would have U.S. bases within a decade because of the almost tailor-made fit between India and the U.S. But India is not following this script. It’s hedging the U.S., and the evolution of the ‘responsibility to protect’ into triumphalist Western regime change in Libya looks to New Dehli like neocolonialism. There’s a ‘BRICS solidarity’ play for China here: Given that India is still pretty soft on the American option, a charm offensive, however humbling, would be wise.
3. Build missiles and drones; don’t bother with a navy.
Trying to ‘out-ship’ the Americans one-to-one in the western Pacific would be a costly fool’s errand. Japan failed in the 1940s; Americans fought tooth-and-nail to prevent it. Wiser is to pursue an ‘access-denial’ approach in the medium-term.
China should pursue regional (East Asian) dominance first and then tangle with the Americans over the much larger Pacific game later. So access-denial - making it harder for U.S. navy to operate west of Guam (the so-called second island chain strategy) - is a good first step.
Throwing swarms of cheap rockets and drones against hugely expensive, slow-moving U.S. carriers is vastly cheaper, fights asymmetrically where the U.S. hegemon is weak, looks less threatening (defensive balancing), and can be marketing as defending Asia against U.S. interventionism. And stick with robots and missiles. They’re getting very cheap and increasingly outclass human platforms. Let the Americans go on buying fewer and ever more expensive ships and planes costing mountains of money - and then ‘swarm’ them with masses of super-cheap missiles and drones.
4. Buy European debt
Buying European sovereign debt enhances leverage over the West. It pressures the U.S. by reminding it of China’s leverage over the American budget. China could take its money elsewhere, and a nasty U.S. budget crunch would ensue a real rupture with China.
Nothing fuels American hysteria so much as the idea that China ‘owns’ the U.S. Buying Euro-debt drives up U.S. interest rates and keeps America fretting that it needs to be nice to its ‘banker.’ It also keeps the Europeans out of any tangles between China and the U.S. camp in Asia. A dependence on Chinese finance handicaps NATO grandstanding about Asia.
5. Keep propping up global troublemakers.
Nothing distracts U.S. policy-makers like upstart countries that stick their finger in America’s eye. Witness Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Cuba. And nothing convinces the U.S. to spend lots of money on costly defense procurement and conflict like these guys.
So if you’re China, propping up local bad guys is great tool. Yes, it makes you look like you’ll support anyone, but the benefits - wasteful American military spending, coupled with U.S. hysteria and imperial overreaction, leading to consequent global unease with American power - more than outweighs the costs. China could woirk to keep Americans saying stuff like ‘Iran is a mortal threat to the US’ - talk that alienates much of the developing world where 4/5 of the globe’s population now lives.
China could encourage the U.S. to dissipate its energies in the periphery while the rest of the world worries that the otherwise good ideas, like the ‘responsibility to protect,’ are really neoimperialism, because American just can’t control itself. If American comes off as a revisionist hegemon that can’t help but chase rogue states, China looks restrained by comparison.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Robert E. Kelly.
Yes,but if America,Chinas leading buyer of their JUNK,quit importing,you'd bring China to their knees in no time.Chinas exports far exceed their countries imports,so to successfully cripple the export giant,put restraints or stop foriegn products from them altogether.Then you force their hand like a drug dealer trying to rekindle his sales to the cleaned,sober ex junky.You can't sell and be prosperous if no one is buying your products,common sense..We made China strong not them.With our politicians getting fat from corporations in China lobbying here state side,its not hard to see how Chinese products have escalated over the past,lets say 40 years.Presidents in the past,Bush for example, giving tax brakes to American companies starting up production in China where the government there help companies prosper with their civilian slave labor, a well known fact.American companies ,then are at odds competing with American owned foriegn corporations not only getting tax brakes,but also $2 a day labor.It's a no loose situation for these foriegn shielded corporations,because our politicians are protecting their corporate masters,much like your Romneys of the world.Europeans have repeatedly frowned on the Chinese products and have no problems telling them so,because most Euro nations are pro union something we forgot of long ago.We traded the quality of American labor to the cheap price of Chinese manufactored junk.People are turning back over to American made products ,willing to pay the price for lasting quality and improving the employment scene stateside,something truelly patriotic.I myself,a proud American Union Welder retired, who will always look for the label, MADE IN THE U.S.A.
Stop taking whatever you're smoking...and come out of your hermit shell....ignorant one!
Moron, you have no response to an intelligent comment.
American investment bankers can't implode the U.S. financial market anymore without cheap low-interest consumer credit financed by Chinese purchases of treasury notes.
You seriously underestimate the impact of protectionism and trade war between two highly interdependent economies.
Good. All the American companies in China will be kicked out, and their investment frozen. This would by itself collapse the US, and China don 't even need to stop buying US T bonds. China just need to frozen all US assets in China.
China kicks out US companies, US companies takes there manufacturing somewhere else... maybe not all to the US. US companies would just lose on consumer market in China, but Chinese people do not have the capital power to buy consumer goods. If China knew this was a better move for them, I am sure they would do it by now.
It's very hard not to buy "Made in China" when we are drowing in it.
at least, there is a honest one
An "honest one"?
Explain in detail what you mean.
Pete, you are actually right. China would be pulled to its knees. I visted Korea for a month. From my point of view when meeting Koreans of my age and older: they love Americans. I could see the possibility English teachers from the US do smoke pot but finding it is nearly impossible there. And its not just Americans, but also Canadians, South Africans, Australians, English, etc that do this also. I have run into Koreans who consider China a 'joke' in Asia. I am not sure if it's resentment for economic growth due to cheap labor or not... idk. Most Koreans are very peacful. They don't openly say things with disgust. I am not sure what the government thinks though. I have no idea. The US army bases in Korea are horrible I think though. To me personally, I think the US soldiers just taint the area. I really do feel bad. But i think most US soldiers are good guys and well respecting of the Korean culture. And of course there are some that probably smuggle in pot to make life in Korea feel more like home. Korea is a beautiful nation, their morals and values makes me feel like what the US was like in the 1940s (If I lived during that time). There are many things like this I wish US would follow. I spent most of my time in the Seoul/Incheon area... where most english teachers are.
5000 year old civilization-state vs. 200 year old fledgling democracy.
China's strategic horizon is decades, if not centuries ahead in planning, while America's strategic horizon is pretty much ever election cycle.
lol i wonder what do americans learn for their short history? stealing german scientists like werher von braun?
China is not a 5000 year civilization state. China is only 60 years old. That is the last time their state has changed from the Nationalists to Communist. If you talking just based on civilization, then we can say empires from middle east led to Roman Empire civilization which expanded to Europe and later expanded to the Americas. Its the same thing. Only Western civilization was able to spread faster. You can take a look at population density and it makes sense. If you look at the expansion of the middle east to Africa, Europe, Russia, and Americas you would see the population equal to India and China.
Ummm how can you deny the history books, no not just the ones from China that says 5000, and the Mongolian empire beats any Eurpean empires, it is the largest land mass wise. Unless you want to count the history before the European invaders plundered, and killed the natives...but I doubt either side would consider it, or want to then.
You can go and on about what is a civillization, but please be aware, the US defination of it is fairly narrow such as the defination of culture, which means Hollywood in most cases.
If you're only looking at politics, oh how narrow minded you are!
We first need to have clear meaning of Ascia pivot to ourself.
Then we need to show that we know things both qualitatively and quantiatively.
Then we write a list and make priorities.
Then we need to show that we know asians and their culture and history.
Then we need to know what is our strength.
Then we need to do cost to benifit analysis.
Then we have to make decision such as if we can not win can we take a loss?
well, we need to set army to make them scary and then kill some kids and woman and make sure we are the best man in this world.
Who "needs" to kill women and children?
Talk about containing China is quite ludicrous to say the least!!! What about our own expansion into the Middle East and Central Asia? Besides, we already own the Pacific Ocean and countries like Australia and New Zealand as their current leaders wait to carry out our orders! In this case, greed is not good.
The question is not so much containg China, but how is China going to contain the US.
we have the best army, man, technology and president in this world. Chinese, haaa, they will knee down to us!!!!
According to the above picture, Obama refused to leave his U.S flag. He is sticking with it.
...someone is controlling my good posting to America from somewhere and prevented it from posting....
So all the postings we are seeing from you are the "bad ones."
Chinese solution is two words; ignore it.
Indeed China might have a pivotal role to play in a re-unification of the two Koreas. China could exert influence over the North and help it transform and integrate into the South.
The U.S. doesn't have to worry too much about the Northeast Pacific, as Russia is not standlng idly by and let China be the hegemon.
Russia have a choice?
those chinks they hate usa and then they come here as immigrant, send them home and stop immigration from republic of chink so they can fight the communist and get red of those evil communists who are helping iran and syria
No, US is evil. The best way is to nuke the US all over.
Hey sweetie, hating USA is no crime, especailly when USA is the only country that bombed over dozen other countries after War II. Did China do that, you idiot?
Thank you, roshi. I couldn't have said it better!!!
agreed, sent army to make them knee down to us.. I love to see chinese knee down and l love to see chinese women marry with american. I love to see chinese man have to disable thir gi gi.
Communist regimes have been responsible for this century's most deadly episodes of mass killing.
Estimates of the total number of people killed range as high as 110 million.
Spewing poison and raising ca ca again Abdul?
We all know you are not American, sh i et for brains.
hi yank! thats why american cars suck cuz no one drives them,
If you were really an American, I would call you a racist pig with no regard for the value of life.
Since, you are a follower of Allah the magnificent and his profiteer 'hammed, your comments are understandable.
LET'S END OUTSOURCES AND BRING ALL JOBS HOME.
We 1% percent can certainly afford to pay made in America $200.00+ shirts and blouses, $300.00+ pants and skirts,
$1000.00 jackets and suits, $1,000.00+ shoes,$3,000.00+ iPhones, iPads and $10,000 flat screen tvs.
We millionaires, multimillionaires, and billionaires never shop at WalMart. We only shop at B. Altman, Berdorf Goodman,
Bloomindale, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Saks Fifth Avenue, and Rodeo Drive.
We care about you 99% and your well being is always on our mind.
Americans should realize one thing: They are not liked by the world, once for all.
I am glad to see a down-down helpless and hopeless USA since a balanced world is much saver. Thats also why we should reflect why 911 happened and remember Iraq.
If history repeats itself (which it certainly and sometimes can), the inevitable solution is WWIII. And all indications suggest it is around the corner. China, Russia, and the West are positioned and poised to capitalize. The real dilemma is how to bring it about without looking guilty. Terrorism did not work. Iraq and Afghanistan did not work. Arab spring is not working. Iran and Israel could do it, but it's being stifled. Syria ?... Too small. We need something like India and Pakistan to go all out and drag the entire middle east into it. Now that would likely work!
These scenarios will depend on one thing:the acceptance of Chinese hegemony over Asian nation‘s sovereignty and i seriously doubt if such a policy direction would pass,since they‘ve seen how China has treated Tibet!
The US always says it has allies in East Asia and South East Asia. Who are they? These so-called "allies" will be quiet and wish to be left alone if the US and China are heading for a direct military conflict. Otherwise they will be the first to die in the cross fire.
The geo-political chess board has the USA seated on one side playing against China/Russia on the other. The players are not permitted to attack each other. That would be ridiculous and suicidal (game over!). The war is fought on the board using the pieces, which of course can be positioned and sacrificed as needed. In the past, the US has cheated somewhat in changing the rules and putting additional men (UN and their own) on the board. Such cheating has been cited and is no longer being tolerated (hence the on-going carnage in Syria). But there are always other pieces on the board facing off against each other (Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India, etc) where violence could also erupt at any time if needed, however, from time to time it IS the actual tactful discourse and direct relationship amongst the the players themselves which attracts the spot light. God forbid they don't mind their Ps & Qs. So while the pieces sweat and fight it out in real life, the players can sit back politely boasting about whatever they like, sipping on tea, vodka, and bourbon.
who is this person writing these articles? youre a westerner? are you advocating missiles to kill american servicemen and women to advance and oppressive regime? people in china cant even comment online and you want these people in charge of the world? are you crazy?
Come on zoie, of all the countries to have nuclear weapons in the world, which is the only one to have used them? And who is threatening Iran with war and who invaded Iraq in 2003? The defense rests!!!!!!!!
"The defense rests!!!!!!!!"??????????????
الجمعة 6/4/2012 م (آخر تحديث) الساعة 16:59 (مكة المكرمة)
الرئيسية: الأخبار: جولة الصحافة: إكسون موبيل تعمق الانقسام بالعراق
إكسون موبيل تعمق الانقسام بالعراق
اتفاقات شركة إكسون موبيل مع كردستان تسبب أزمة سياسية في بغداد (الجزيرة) ذكرت صحيفة واشنطن بوست الأميركية أن الخلاف حول اتفاقات النفط بالعراق يؤجج انقساما سياسيا حادا بين الأكراد والقادة العرب، وهو ما يجعل الجدالات الطويلة حول الاستقلال الذاتي والسيطرة على الموارد تطفو على السطح بهذا البلد الغني بالنفط.
وأكثر القضايا جدلا اتفاق وُقع العام المضي منحت فيه السلطات بالمنطقة الكردية بشمال العراق شركة إكسون موبيل ترخيصا للتنقيب في ست قطع أراض. وهذا العقد أغضب القادة في بغداد الذين لم يتفقوا أبدا على الوسيلة التي تستطيع بواسطتها المنطقة الكردية تطوير مواردها.
وأشارت الصحيفة إلى قانون مقترح لتنظيم الحفر والمبيعات قد تمت عرقلته منذ 2007 بعد عراك بين الكتل السياسية حول شروطه. ومع تحسن الأمن بالعراق منذ 2009 زادت إمكانية عمل شركات النفط الأجنبية بالبلد. وأبرمت الحكومة في بغداد اتفاقات مع شركات نفط دولية، بما في ذلك إكسون موبيل، تركزت في حقول النفط الموجودة بجنوب البلاد، بعيدا عن المناطق الكردية بالشمال.
وباعت السلطات الكردية النفط والغاز من أرضها عبر الحكومة في بغداد مقابل حصة سنوية من الموازنة العراقية، لكن مشاكل الترتيبات كانت شائعة، وهذا الأسبوع أعلنت الحكومة الكردية أنها ستعلق صادراتها لأن حكومة بغداد لم تنجز تعهداتها بالدفع لشركات النفط العاملة بالمناطق الكردية.
وفي الوقت نفسه هناك شركات صغيرة، بما في ذلك الشركة النرويجية "دي إن أو" تجاهلت الإطار القانوني المتزعزع، ووقعت اتفاقات مباشرة مع الحكومة الإقليمية لكردستان. وإلى هنا تحمل القادة في بغداد هذه الترتيبات لكن هذا التحمل بلغ حدوده في أكتوبر/ تشرين الأول عندما أصبحت إكسون موبيل أول شركة عاملة بالجنوب توقع أيضا اتفاقا مع السلطات الكردية.
وإضافة إلى الإحساس بالضيم في بغداد هناك ثلاث من الست مناطق التي تصمم إكسون موبيل على تطويرها موجودة في ماسيمى (الأرض المتنازع عليها) التي تطالب بها كلتا الإدارتين في بغداد والعاصمة الكردية إربيل.
وقالت الصحيفة إن اتفاق إكسون موبيل أغضب رئيس الوزراء العراقي نوري المالكي وأوقع حكومته بمأزق: إما السماح للاتفاق بالمضي قدما وإضفاء شرعية لسوق نفط كردي مستقل أو طرد إكسون موبيل من حقل نفط غرب القرنة بالجنوب والمخاطرة بخسارة اتفاق يعتبر الأفضل من نوعه. ومن جانبها رفضت إكسون موبيل التعليق على الأمر.
يُشار إلى أن الحكومة أبلغت إكسون موبيل نهاية العام الماضي أن صفقتها مع كردستان انتهكت شروط اتفاق الشركة لتطوير غرب القرنة. لكن الإجراء الرسمي الوحيد الذي اتخذته الحكومة حتى الآن هو منع الشركة من المشاركة في مزايدة الشهر القادم على حقول الغاز.
وأشارت الصحيفة إلى أن العلاقات بين أربيل وبغداد توترت حتى قبل أن يتأجج الجدال من جديد حول صفقة إكسون موبيل. وألقى الرئيس الكردي مسعود البارزاني خطابا لاذعا أمس بواشنطن هاجم فيه المالكي ووصفه بأنه مستبد. وقال "العراق يواجه أزمة خطيرة". وأصر على أن اتفاقات النفط التي تُبرم بمنطقة كردستان العراق قانونية.
وقالت الصحيفة إن حقول النفط والغاز بالمنطقة الكردية تمثل جزءا صغيرا من الثروة الهيدروكربونية الضخمة للعراق. لكن البعض في بغداد يخشون أنها في يوم ما يمكن أن تدر ربحا كافيا لتشجيع القوى الانفصالية بكردستان. وهذا ما جعل حسين الشهرستاني، نائب رئيس الوزراء، يقول إنه عازم على ألا يدع هذا الأمر يحدث.
وأضاف الشهرستاني "إذا أدارت مناطق أخرى شؤون النفط وسيكون مصدر الصراع والحرب بين العراقيين فهذا لن يدمر البلاد فقط ولكن لن يستفيد أحد منهم من هذه الموارد".
BUL SH IT WE MUST ATTACK IRAN NOW, THOSE EVIL CULT EMPIRE OF SHIIA THUGS MUST END. WHEN WE GET RED OF SHIIA IRAN ALL THE OTHER MINOR EVIL LIKE HIZBOALLAH WILL FALL ALONG WITH SYRIA , KOFI ANAN IS NO BODY AND HE SHOULD NOT ALLOWED TO HELP SYRIAN THUGS AS HE IS BLACK, THE SHIIA WILL NEVER LISTEN TO BLACK THEY CONSIDER THEM LOW RACE AND INFERIOR HUMAN BEEN , THATS WHY THEY KILL KURDS, SUNNI AND OTHERS.
The caller ID on Eman al-Obeidi's smart phone says private number. She guesses the call is from a fellow Libyan and promptly silences the ringer.
"I think the halal meat seller gave out my number," she says, picking up another piece of sizzling beef fajita. "That's why I don't buy halal meat anymore."
THATS WHAT THIS STUPID LIER SAID....WELL IF THIS STUPID MUSLIM GAVE YOUR PHONE NUMBER, WHATS THAT GOT TO DO WHITH HALAL MEET, HALAL IS BETWEEN YOU AND GOD AND YOU SHOULD RESPECT GOD , COVER YOUR HEAD AS YOU USED TO BE IN LIBYA STUPID
Fares Raslan MD
خبر عاجل وهام جدا جدا ::::::
تقوم المخابرات العامة في دمشق بأخذ كميات من الدم الفاسد من المشافي الحكومية الى افرع السجون حيث يتم حقن المعتقل بكمية 5 سم من هذا الدم وعلى اثرها يتوفى وفاة طبيعة /يرجى النشر لجمعيات حقوق الانسان/
By: شبكة اخبار حمص العدية (عاصمة الثورة السورية)
reliable sources from my collegues syrian doctors in syria .
the intelligence services in syria are collecting spoiled blood and injecting forcefully prisioners with 5 ml of it to let them die naturally ...please share to human rights watch and all human organizations around the world ....
also they are sending 50 truks aday since 3 months ago those trucks going to hizboallah south of lebanon , full of weapons , cash, arms, rockets, and some chemical weapons please take a note this is an eye wotness ....why no body is doing any thing to those thugs , war criminal shiia thugs?
i fk so many chinese ladies wow the best
La rencontre avec la mssnarfauoa n'etait pas celle que tu croyais , pour ta question sur ma pre9sence tu trouveras la re9ponse sur mon blog mon passage e0 ton blog m'a fait plaisir . bonne continuation .
I have fun with, result in I found exactly what I was taking a look for. You have ended my four day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye
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