April 10th, 2012
12:14 PM ET

Roundup: Grim chances for Syrian cease-fire

Editor's Note: The following is reprinted with the permission of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Violence continues in parts of Syria despite the passing of a UN-backed deadline for a total withdrawal of government troops and heavy weaponry. The development does not bode well for a full cease-fire set to come into force on Thursday. Opposition groups reported violence in Homs (BBC) and areas of the northern Aleppo province, as well as conflict in Damascus. Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said the Assad regime has tried to comply with the scheduled withdrawal, but blamed "armed gangs" for the ongoing hostilities. Muallem said a cease-fire could only occur when a team of international observers arrived. The UN estimates that more than 9,000 people have been killed in the rebellion against the Assad's regime, which started more than a year ago.

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Analysis

"Assad has continued his pattern of empty promises with the latest effort by the United Nations to halt the killing. Though he has pledged to cooperate with Annan, he has defied his attempts to establish dialogue between the regime and the opposition. And unsurprisingly, as soon as Assad agreed last month to Annan's proposed April 10 deadline for the regime to impose a cease-fire and withdraw its troops from Syrian cities, he began paving the way for his continued defiance," writes Radwan Ziadeh in the New Republic.

"The United States must walk a fine line in Syria. On the one hand, should Assad and his regime fall, Washington and its allies would rejoice. Syria is Iran's oldest and closest Arab ally, has long opposed Israel, has backed Palestinian terrorist groups, and, at times, has aided anti-U.S. forces in Iraq. On the other hand, Washington knows that should the entire state collapse, it would usher in a horrific humanitarian crisis, and could bring along with it terrorism and even regional war," writes Daniel Byman in Foreign Affairs.

In Foreign Policy, Sophia Jones and Erin Banco write on the spillover of Syrian violence into Lebanon and Turkey, "With the end to the conflict nowhere in sight, Syria's refugees have found little comfort in escaping Assad's brutal crackdown. They left Syria in the hope of finding safety and peace, but violence still seems to follow them wherever they go."

PACIFIC RIM

China Returns to Trade Surplus

After a large deficit in February, China reported a surprising trade surplus (WSJ) for the month of March. Analysts say weak imports are largely responsible for the surplus–news that may cast doubt over the country's economic outlook.

The Chinese government has jailed land rights lawyer Ni Yulan (BBC) and her husband Dong Jiqin on several charges including "provoking trouble and willfully destroying private and public property." The couple is known for helping people whose homes have been taken by the government.

MIDDLE EAST

Egypt Court Opposes Makeup of Constitution Panel

An Egyptian court ruled against the composition of a panel tasked with drafting the country's new constitution (Bloomberg). Critics of the 100-member panel have said it was controlled by Islamists and excluded secularists.

Registration is now closed for Egypt's upcoming presidential election. CFR's Steven A. Cook discusses major contenders, including the Muslim Brotherhood's Khairat al-Shater and last-minute entrant Omar Suleiman, Hosni Mubarak's one-time spy chief.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA

Cameron to Make Landmark Visit to Myanmar

UK Prime Minister David Cameron will become the first major Western leader to visit Myanmar (FT) since the West placed sanctions on the military regime in the late 1990s. The visit will likely be part of Cameron's multi-country trip to Asia.

AFGHANISTAN: Local Afghan police reported that at least eighteen people were killed in two separate attacks: one in the western Herat province, and the second in the southern Helmand province. Several police officers died in both attacks. The Taliban (al-Jazeera) claimed responsibility.

This CFR timeline examines the events that precipitated the U.S. war in Afghanistan as well as the history of the war.

AFRICA

Market Bomb Kills Eleven in Somalia

An explosion killed at least eleven people and wounded many others in the strategic Somali town of Baidoa. The attack was the worst since al-Shabaab (AFP), an insurgent group allied with al-Qaeda, was forced from the town by Ethiopia-backed Somali troops.

NIGERIA: Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, one of three candidates competing to lead the World Bank (Bloomberg), interviewed with the organization's board of directors. Okonjo-Iweala said she would focus the Bank's efforts on creating jobs and increasing the response time to clients' requests.

CFR's Thomas J. Bollyky discusses U.S. President Obama's nomination of Jim Yong Kim to lead the World Bank in this op-ed for the New York Times.

EUROPE

European Court Backs Terrorist Extradition to U.S.

The European Court of Human Rights issued its support for the extradition of Abu Hamza and four other terror suspects (BBC) from the UK to the United States. The court ruled there would be no violation of human rights for the suspects who may face life and solitary confinement in a U.S. "supermax" prison.

NORWAY: Anders Behring Breivik, the confessed killer of seventy-seven people in a Norway rampage (AP), has been found to be not criminally insane, according to a psychiatric assessment. The ruling contradicts a previous assessment and could lead prosecutors to seek jail time for Breivik in his upcoming trial, instead of psychiatric care.

AMERICAS

Brazil-U.S. Talks Turn to Currency

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff pushed U.S. President Barack Obama on the currency issue (WSJ), suggesting that an expansive U.S. monetary policy may be inundating Brazil and other developing countries with speculative dollars that overvalue local currencies and potentially harm growth.

VENEZUELA: A Costa Rican diplomat, Guillermo Cholele, was kidnapped in Venezuela (AP), and his captors are demanding a ransom. Cholele's abduction is the latest in a string of kidnappings in recent months that have included representatives from Mexico and Chile.

CAMPAIGN 2012

Poll Finds Romney and Obama Even on Economy

According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, 51 percent of voters said they would vote for President Obama in a general election, while 44 percent said they would vote for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. The poll also found that Romney and President Obama are nearly even with voters polled on the issues of the economy and job creation, with Romney getting a four-point lead over the president on the jobs issue. The other issues where Romney showed a lead are on energy policy and the budget deficit.

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum challenged President Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney on Israel policy in a New York Daily News op-ed.

The U.S. News and World Report looks at three reasons why President Obama isn't going to Jerusalem, citing strategy, politics, and precedent.

Editor's Note: For more information on the presidential election and foreign policy check out CFR's campaign blog, The Candidates and the World.

To receive daily updates in your inbox sign up for CFR.org's Daily News Brief.

Topics: Daily Roundup • Syria

soundoff (5 Responses)
  1. deniz boro

    Even Syria does not know what to do? This is a case off hand. I do not think any of the world leaders are in a position to bring his/her fist on the table. Not-foreseable result of the Arab Spring maybe?... Which resulted in an "unacceptable" situation. We have a saying in Turkey: " One madmen throw a pebble in a well, 40 clever people couldn't remove it"

    April 10, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Reply
    • j. von hettlingen

      I don't agree. I think Assad knows exactly what he wants – to squash the opposition and stay in power. He's extremely annoyed with Turkey, which allows the rebels to receive arms and shelter. He has provoked Turkey with this clash on the border and tried to engage Ankara in a low-intensity war. If the Turks strike back, he will send the Kurds of the PKK, who take refuge in Syria, to launch attacks on Turkey.

      April 10, 2012 at 3:46 pm | Reply
  2. j. von hettlingen

    The five terror suspects will be extradited to the U.S. to stand trial for various crimes including the bombings of the U.S. embassies in East Africa in 1998. They will be held in the ADX Supermax Florence, Colorado, also known as the Alcatraz of the Rockies.

    April 10, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Reply
    • j. von hettlingen

      Of course they will exhaust all legal remedies in Britain before the extradition comes into effect. They think they would be better off if they were tried in Britain.

      April 10, 2012 at 3:59 pm | Reply
  3. j. von hettlingen

    Norway's mass murder Anders Behring Breivik never pleaded he was insane. He said he knew what he was doing and accepted the charges.

    April 10, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Reply

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