Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Israeli Chief of Staff Benny Gantz reportedly said yesterday that he did not believe Iran would decide to build an atomic bomb. Officials in Tehran argue that Israel will not launch a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities due to its fear of retaliation. While the Iranian regime tends to exaggerate its military capabilities, it has a number of options that, in a worst-case scenario, would broaden an Iranian-Israeli conflict into a global campaign against Israel, the United States and their allies.
Iran's response to any Israeli attack will depend heavily on whether Israel limits its strikes to a handful of nuclear sites or targets the Islamic Republic's centers of power.
In the case of a limited Israeli campaign, Iran could forego any direct military response. Its reaction could be similar to Iraq or Syria in 1981 and 2007, when Israel attacked their nuclear programs respectively. In this scenario, Tehran would play the role of victim and focus on mustering global condemnation of Israel.
However, if the domestic environment did push the Iranian regime to respond, it could opt for a limited military operation against Israel. This would involve mobilizing its regional allies and deploying its own long-range missiles that are understood to be capable of reaching Israel.
Iran could opt to extend its retaliation to any regional state that might have facilitated the attack. For example, it might decide to retaliate against Gulf Cooperation Council states should they provide airspace cover. It could further escalate its response by attacking U.S. forces and interests in the region.
If Tehran believes the attacks are aimed at regime change, its reaction will be vastly different. In such a scenario, an offensive strategy is likely to be seen within the establishment as the best option to repel the threat to their grip on power. Retaliation could then be expected to be multifaceted and to extend beyond Israel and the Gulf.
Tehran’s primary objective would be to launch an early, wide-scale Iranian-instigated retaliation that would generate panic, specifically in the United States and among the Arab states of the Gulf, thus forcing them to cease their operations against Iran. The United States would then be expected to rein in Israel.
Even in a scenario of maximum retaliation, a number of unknown factors could seriously limit Tehran's reprisals. While Iran possesses the largest missile stock in the Middle East, the precision of its long-range missiles is still an open question. Due to their vicinity to Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas's short and medium-range missiles can overwhelm Israeli defenses. However, Iran cannot bank on support from Hamas. Relations between the two are strained due to the latter's decision to distance itself from the Syrian regime. Hamas leaders have openly suggested that they will stay out of an Iranian-Israeli conflict unless it impacts the Palestinians.
In the event of a limited Israeli campaign, Iran can be expected either to refrain from a military response or retaliate only against Israel. However, a wider operation that takes place with U.S. and/or Gulf Arab cooperation could see Tehran widen its counter-offensive to include attacks on their interests in the region. A worst-case scenario would involve Iran launching acts of sabotage and terrorism in the Middle East, the United States and Europe.
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If pushed far enough, expect Iran to use the old Soviet nukes it bought in 1991. Why no one expects this will be part of the response is mysterious, but it must have something to do with the insanity of attacking a nuclear power, thus the public cannot be told.
Dear Farid,
I am very disappointed that you did not mention a killing fatwa by Iranian mullahs on Shaheen Najafi, He is an Iranian singer, song writer who lives in Germany. They have put $100,000 price on his head.
Please, is not this against human rights violation?
What on Earth you think, Iran doesn't have Nuclear? It started importing Uranium from Zimbabwe and other places from 1973. That is before South-Africa and Libya built Nuclear.
It is just, as the High-School bully applied against the weak Person, because the Boy doesn't have muscle or strong friends, the West and Jewish chose to bully or attacked only those who can't fight back or who are stronger.
Ironically, when Iran becomes like NK, it will swim by its own wish. Means, it will ignore any International Rules and it will test Nuclear anytime it wants.
What happened to the weekly quiz? Was I the only one who took it? Please bring it back.
I miss those quizzes also!!
Here's how the GOP would respond: Start a war with Iran (totally unfunded of course!!). Send all the poor people to fight/die in the war while giving the rich people "no bid contracts". Thus killing two GOP birds with one stone. Then they will use Iran's oil to pay for the war. And when the war is over, Iran will sell us cheap oil!! Just like in Iraq!! Oh wait...........never mind.
Your comment is just another muslim loven jew hater! Typical liberal response!
The truth hurts. Don't it!
truth?
hehehe...
Republicans don't like it when ya throw facts in their face ,do they.Wars with nobid contracts to a VP,who is also CEO of Halliburton,how neat...nothing like the stench of political conflicts of interest,isn't that illegal,O but wait,it was under Bushs watch wasn't it.If Bush was in Pres.Obamas place it would be Katy ,bar the door,its a nuclear war and Bush is using real bombs,not fair...Push the button first ,ask questions later is Bush and Cheneys motto...We got plenty more here Cheneys says,some from WWII,so use em up,they're cheap...Pres.Obama is using diplomatic finesse and intelligence,something not around when the past administration was around in office.Your past president would of loaded the playing deck with human lives wanting a war,so he can play general with real troops.He ,McCain and the rest should be ashamed of their actions lying to get us into war,not really caring the out come because they knew they'd be out of office,shove it off on Obama,who cares...we won't be there.....
what a naive article. an attack on Iran in any manner will result in Iran attacking back full force. This is NOT Syria or Iraq. This is world war 3. Why anyone would think launching an attack against Iran will be a small limited war is beyond me.
On the other hand, as a Christian, I believe these are the end times and it still equates to world war 3.
Joan of Arc. Is that you? Hahahahahahahaha
Please Hahahahahahahaha, let's not get blasphemous here. Joan has the right idea and I feel the same way. An attack on Iran would be quite senseless!
read the bible fool, its all in there, and alot of it has happened already. jay
@ Jay, Bible ? Is there an app for that ?
RZ – You can use your iPad, iPhone, or iPod Touch to enrich your life as a Muslim. These Islamic apps are useful for reading Qur'an, calculating prayer times, and even finding halal food.
Absolutely the end times....If anyone reads Revelations it's all there and predicts these happenings....
Wake up America!!! Redemption draweth nigh!!
if ersatz israel and its poodle, usa, attack iran, we can say good riddance to 2 parasites. pray we can get england to participate, 3 parasites gone.
i dont know why usa and israel are bullying other countries..................
afghanistan , iraq ,pakistan and now iran ......................... common thing all muslim countries.......
i think west want to start crusades ...... christian and muslim on wars...!!!!!!!!!
Don't try to attack Israel and/or the US and they will not "bully" you. Simple, is not it?
Malik – Israel is only looking to protect its citizen.
How could 7M people bully 700M?
You are a simpleton.
Amen Patrick!
All parties will be wise to keep military operations off the table. A armed conflict would lead to a no-win situation. The West should apply both stick and carrot – sanctions and negotiations – to persaude Iran to stop its uranium enrichment completely or to just a small amount for peaceful purposes.
Seriously dude??? What do you think has been going on ? Iran just keeps buying time to complete their nuclear process. Get your head out of the sand & face the real world!
You are correct RK.
These poor people have spent too much time in the sand pits.
Obstinance disorder or sheer ignorance=stupidity
j. von hettlingen... I have some bad news for you. One side can start and maintain a war but ALL sides are necesary to make peace. Therefore, if ONE side does (or is suspected to) have a military option on the table it would be wise for the other side to be ready.
This is the worst article I have ever read on how Iran might respond to an attack. Go back to college and take geo politics again and military sciences then come back and write something better than this crap.
WHY did you stop without enlightening us, Adam???
IRAN , SHIIA IRAQI AND SHIIA SYRIAN ARE TERRORISTS HELPING HIZBOALLAH , AND SENDING TERRORISTS EVERY WHERE WE SHOULD STAND AGANIST EVIL.
ATTACK IRAN NOW BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE , THOSE TOWEL HEADS ARE EVIL
ISRAEL MUST ATTACK SYRIA NOW AND LET THE SYRIAN PEOPLE GET RED OF THIS BASHAR THE IRANIAN PUPPET AND THEN HIZBOALLAH FINSH THEM SO ISRAEL WILL BE SAFE TO ATTACK IRAN, THE TIME IS NOW DONT WAIT TOO LONG
Good grief, will you stop with that nasty Tea Party lingo above? Some country needs to come forward and try to get both Israel and Iran to sit down at the nogotiating table to work out their differences. Unfortunately, the current leaders of Europe and Australia are too self-serving and Washington-loving to do that and that makes me sick!
Iran will react like Iraq or Syria?? what medication is this guy on. Iran is not Iraq or Syria and response will be quick, swift and extremley painfull. but then again we all know Israel will never dare attak it.
Ofcourse, Iran is not Iraq and not Syria. For starters, Iran does not have a common border with Israel like Syria and the distance between Iran and Israel is at least 1,000 kilometers or more. Further, Israel WILL NOT use force against Iran unless as a last resort in case there will be no other way to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. If it happens, however, Israel will use enough force to assure that Iran wil have no will and no ability to launch a counter-attack.
I agree with you. What I am also thinking is Israel will attack Iran and planed to attack from the first day Iran was thinking nuclear weapons, right now is just a play, everything that Israel plan has been in place long time ago and just waiting for the right moment.
And, you have proof of this?
Or, is this another attempt at propagating misinformation by you and your islamist fiends?
I have to agree with you here. Israelis must have been suicidal idi ots to NOT prepare plans for a possible confrontation with Iran in case there would be no other way to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israelis ARE NOT suicidal idi ots.
chicken israel will start something then run away and hide or jews in usa will push for an attack by dumb amer to save their fake, violent parasite
Joe Ma Ma will be out servicing sailors when the time comes.
The first response would be the surrender of CNN's editorial board, signified by dropping trou.
God forbid that the 12er's in Iran are crazy enough to force Israel's hand in this issue. The Iranian people are tired of their nut job leaders too! A countries leader cannot stand up in front of the world and say he and his country wish to destroy another country. especially countries with the military technology and fire power the U.S. and Israel have.
These guys are positioning for a major war. Take them out now and help save the Iranian people and the rest of the world from another Natzi like cambaighn in the middle east. It will happen if no one reacts.
You have posted the best one that makes sense, Israel, must protect their country period. Iran has boasted they will wipe Israel off the map, and if they acquire the bomb they will use it. Israel still remembers the holocaust.
I go to Israel each year, the people are wonderful, Israel just wants peace, the leaders beg for peace in the land that GOD, gave them...........I pray each day for Israel.
Here goes just some more of that meaningless right-wing drivel from both you and common sense middle america above. Maybe if you people had any sense at all, there would be fewer wars!!!
Israel should be the focus here.
Why are you arguing, when you could be invading Iran??
WE NEED YOUR MILITARY SUPPORT NOW!!
You think we can survive with the pitiful 3 billion you give us?? Your insane and greedy in that case...
You can't spare a few bucks to Israel, but um sure you can all find money for mcdonalds...
Yahweh remembers betrayal of his chosen, you will pay....
Moron, everyone knows you are not Jewish.
Just another islamist spouting ca ca and lies.
I find it funny when Israel says that Iran is a threat to world peace. The very Iran which is a signatory of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Convention for the Annihilation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, the convention effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, retention, stockpiling and use of biological and toxic weapons and is a key element in the international community's efforts to address the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
The tyrant Israeli regime has never allowed nuclear inspectors to access its nuclear sites and till today has refused to join the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in spite of being the only country in the Middle East that possesses nuclear weapons.
Despite their own history written with the blood of innocent people all over the world, these so called Super Powers shamelessly point fingers at others. I wish I had a voice loud enough to remind them what Jesus Christ said 2000 years ago, "Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother's eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?
Israel NEVER threatened to destroy any other state nor did it attack anyone without being attacked first. On the other hand, if the Arab states and Iran were assured that Israel did not have nuclear weapons they would try to destroy Israel again as they've done in 1948, 1967 and 1973. The resulting war would claim hundreds of thousands of casualties meaning that Israeli nukes save a lot of Arab lives.
Israel HAD nuclear weapons at the time these arab states attacked and the arabs were fully aware of this!!!
Totally agree with you Thinker23! Alot of liberal nut jobs leaving stupid, worthless jew/Israel hating comments that makes me sick.
@shahin: Are you trying to tell us that the Arab leaders decided to attack Israel KNOWING IN ADVANCE that they'll either lose the war BEFORE Israel will have to nuke them or, alternatively, they'll lose the war AFTER being nuked? This means that the Arab leaders either were (and still are) unbelievable stupid or, alternatively, they're the greatest traitors in history.
Thinker: I'd go with "incredibly stupid", to be honest.
Muslims lie.
Warmonger thinkers are still publishing this news without any shame . War option will be stay at table untill they rot . It is going on since 2005 . Put aside your stupid thinking . As an Iranian I can just tell you . We are not wall street who are greedy . We can starve for our rights . If we are attacked limited or extended , we will destroy western financial life line .
Threatening to other countries and building nukes to do it is NOT your rights. NO ONE will be willing to attack PEACEFUL Iran but in case Iran will get nukes it will try to USE them sooner rather than later. Iranians will not starve in this case. They'll be dead..
Respected,
The Editor Garu,
Israel will not strike againest Iran, Because, Iran having all capabilities like Israel.If U S forced to Israel then 3rd World War will began with in 3 months.
Israel will do what is necessary to protect Israel.
Simple!
the ersatz hebrew state will do whatever is necessary to steal.
Always fun to see Ayran hillbillies servicing Jihadi dictators.
I hate when people say the USA only bullies weak people. The only thing that has kept us from pimpin slapping Russia or China is their nukes. Take that out and you'll see how strong the USA pimp hand is..
Yes, the USA pimp hand has been only too strong! On the other hand Truth316, you seem to overestimate the US military. For instance, during the Korea War and in spite of the vastly superiority in conventional weapons on the side of the US, neither the US nor the Chinese military side could overcome one or the other and the war ended in stalemate!
I'm not saying it would be a easy win by any means, If you really look at things the USA has hand 1 hand tied behind it's back in all the wars after WWII. If they let our boys do their jobs (Slapping people and asking questions later) then gaining victory isn't that hard. Plus I don't call 2mill+ dead NK/China + a stalemate. They got their butts handed to them, we just didn't have the balls to finsih the job...
@Truth316... The US can afford the luxury to LOSE THE WAR with Iran as it did in Vietnam, for example. Israel, however, does not have this luxury.
the brave masadic warriors of the fake hebrew state of the fake hebrews defeated another olive tree.
way to go yossi, moshe, yahudi, and fester.
Sure thing Abdul.
Here, there and somewhere:-
Why don't let the Middle-East, 13 + Countries, leave alone Israel and share their 13 + Countries Oil Money and live comfortably without any incidents?
Literally, no matter how long it will take, no one can beat British and U.S.A, till the end of the World. It is realty!!!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
100% ETHIO: You are unbelievably naive. So, it is the fault of the other countries of the Middle East that they don't leave Israel alone to plunder any land that it wants and slaughter anybody that it wants. Do you even know what is going on in the region? What other country is attacking pipsqueak Israel? It is Israel with its lunatic leaders that constantly threatens everyone, specially Iran.
Even the ex-security chief of Israel (Yuval Diskin) says that the current Israeli leadership is 'misleading public' on Iran. He said that he had "no faith in the current leadership" of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak, according to Israeli media reports. Check it out if you don't believe me.
Seems everyone is enough experienced and well aware of the political and geopolitical issues regarding the region!
You are all talking about war, how to start it, how to respond to it, how to end it,.... come on guys! We claim we are not Hitlers or whoever in the history we know of...
If anyone of these countries (rightful or not) start a war, we have got to bear in mind that lots of people will lose a lot... tension in the region is the first thing achieved!! and what do you think is the result!? raise in the oil price, gas price .... we all have financial problems these days (wherever in the world) and how can we be in peace, let alone the countries engaged! If the war is to prevent a country to achieve what world powers think might use against the peace of the region, if another country is seeking peace in the region while having the bomb cause they think it was the reason to keep them alive, if we are living a simple life and being busy with politics... WE HAVE LOTS OF OTHER IMPORTANT THINGS IN THE WORLD TO BE WORRIED ABOUT, guys!
And let me tell you, neither Iran nor Israel, will do that!!!
Iran, although it has a very dark picture in your mind, will never start a war (as some of you stated).
Israel, they have the bomb and let me tell you, they still safe and will remain safe (at least its people, not sure about the politicians)
it is all up to you!
The assumptions in this article are totally stupid. What possible basis is there for pipsqueak Israel to attack Iran? Has the author heard of the UN Charter? No attack on another member country is allowed except in self-defense or if the UNSC approves it.
The dialogue should be changed to avoid talking about nonsense. Well, what would happen if Israel attack Cairo and Beirut. If Israel is stupid enough to attack Iran, it will cease to exist. Israel is the biggest rogue country in the world, along with the US.
Dear quinterius,
Let's not be so tough, although I believe it is sometimes needed. Logically you are true about that, but politically, the UN is theirs by any means!!!! They will find the way out if anyone , say Israel, acts stupidly.
The important thing here is that, in any case, war in the Persian Gulf region is NOT really good for anyone in the world! Actually, some world powers are running rats in this region and never want a united Persian Gulf countries!!! It is far beyond their benefits! and else, you know what I mean!!
رابطة الشفافية تكشف ان اثنين من البنوك الخاصة على الاقل في العراق توليا نقل كميات كبيرة من اموال المعونات الامريكية عبر الحدود لصالح تنظيمات عراقية مسلحة لاقامة مشاريع في لبنان وسوريا ودول اخرى
– May 1, 2012
دبي-الشرقية 1 مايو: كشفت رابطة الشفافية ان اثنين من البنوك الخاصة على الاقل في العراق مما يتعذر على الشرقية نيوز ذكر اسميهما كما ورد في تقرير الرابطة توليا نقل كميات كبيرة من اموال المعونات الامريكية عبر الحدود لصالح تنظيمات مسلحة عراقية لديها مشاريع اقتصادية في لبنان وسوريا ودول اخرى.كما ادارت شبكة لنقل الاموال من العراق الى الخارج لخدمة المصالح الاقتصادية لعدد من الميليشيات والسياسيين الذين كان همهم بالدرجة الاولى بناء شبكة مالية قوية خارج العراق تضم موارد قادمة من داخل العراق.وتوزعت هذه الموارد بين الاستحواذ على المعونات الامريكية في العراق الى جانب المبالغ التي يجري ابتزاز الافراد والشركات لدفعها داخل العراق.واستمرت هذه الحالة بعد انتهاء الاحتلال الامريكي حيث يجري نقل كميات كبيرة من الاموال لصالح مسؤولين حكوميين وتنظيمات شبه عسكرية واحزاب سياسية.وشددت الرابطة على الدور الذي يقوم به اثنان من البنوك في ادارة الاموال المريبة المتداولة حاليا.
fk the iranina before it is to late
they say THE GOOD JEW IS A DEAD JEW , WHATS THAT MEAN can some one explain please.
they say jews are greedy and stingy...why?
they jews smale vey bad why?
they jews are evil as they brought the first gay pracgtice in sadome and gamorah......is it true?
please expalin why the jews dont go and attack the evil iranians and hizboallah why they dont attack syria now as they are terrorists so are they cowered?
There are some misunderstandings between "Jews" and "Zionists"! resolve this and you will know what they mean!
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