By Kyle Almond, CNN
Two high-profile elections came to a head this past weekend, with voters in France and Greece taking their countries in a new direction.
But there’s still much more to watch for in 2012, a year in which nearly a third of the world’s countries are casting ballots.
“Some of these elections and leadership changes involve nothing more than personnel shifts; others will be occasions for fundamental debates about the future course of the country,” wrote CNN’s Fareed Zakaria as he previewed this “year of elections” back in December.
So far, we’ve already seen a handful of leadership changes on several continents. In addition to Francois Hollande in France, new presidents have been elected in Finland, Yemen, Senegal and Russia (although many argue Russian President Vladimir Putin never really left power).
Like Greece, there have been clear parliamentary shifts in Iran, Myanmar and South Korea — all very different countries with their own separate issues and priorities.
Is this volatility a sign of what’s to come? What does the future hold for the countries that haven’t voted yet?
Here are five major elections to keep an eye on going forward:
Egypt (May 23-24)
The Egyptian military, which has been in charge of the country since longtime President Hosni Mubarak was forced from office in February 2011, promised to turn over power to an elected civilian government. But election delays and the slow pace of reform have angered many Egyptians and raised doubt over the generals’ willingness to give up power.
So has controversy over the presidential race, set for later this month. Ten of the 23 candidates were disqualified in April over “legal irregularities,” and some claim the disqualifications were politically motivated, especially the barring of Khairat el-Shater, the Muslim Brotherhood’s first-choice candidate. The Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist party that dominated recent parliamentary elections, has been at odds with the ruling military.
The outcome of this election will surely be one of the lasting legacies of the so-called Arab Spring. Will the military keep its word and step aside, even if the winning candidate is someone who doesn’t share their interests? And if an Islamist wins, would Egypt be governed by Sharia law?
“The remaining front-runners for president speak a similar language on the need for economic reform and political transition, but they hold very different positions on the role of Islam in a new Egypt,” said Isobel Coleman, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. “In this sense, the presidential election will be an important indicator of how much weight Egyptians give to Islam as a factor in their political life.”
Mexico (July 1)
When Mexican President Felipe Calderon took office nearly six years ago, he launched a full-scale offensive against the country’s drug cartels.
The results have been staggering: Nearly 50,000 people have been killed in drug violence since December 2006.
Whether Mexico is ultimately winning the war is up for debate, but Calderon’s political future is not. Mexican presidents can only serve one six-year term, so there will be new leadership in place by the end of the year.
Leading the polls is Enrique Peña Nieto, a former Mexico state governor whose party opposes Calderon’s. His main opponents are Josefina Vazquez Mota and Andrés Manual López Obrador. Vazquez Mota, the candidate of Calderon’s party, is looking to be Mexico’s first female president. López Obrador lost a close election to Calderon in 2006.
While the economy and job creation are major talking points in Mexico, drug violence is still the primary issue on many voters’ minds.
“People need security, and that means getting tangible results in the very short- and medium-term,” Peña Nieto told Reuters last month. “It’s clear that society can’t wait much longer.”
Netherlands (September 12)
Eurozone governments are feeling the strain of austerity. France and Greece are just the latest to experience upheaval; they are not alone.
Last month, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned when a far-right party withdrew from talks over an austerity package worth 14.2 billion euros (about $19 million). Parliamentary elections are now set for September.
"The economy is stalling, unemployment is threatening to rise, and the national debt is growing more quickly than we can afford,” Rutte said. “These are the facts, and we cannot ignore them.”
How will the Dutch choose to address their economic woes going forward if voters take an anti-austerity stand? And what will it mean for the embattled eurozone and the future of a single currency?
Venezuela (October 7)
Since Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was first elected in 1999, he has withstood mass protests, a coup attempt and a recall referendum. But as he struggles with serious health problems, perhaps his toughest challenge is yet to come.
Chavez’s challenger, Henrique Capriles, is a former tax attorney, mayor and governor almost 20 years younger than the president, and he won nearly two-thirds of the primary vote in February.
“Capriles is reading Venezuelans correctly,” said Diana Villiers Negroponte, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. “His conciliatory, pragmatic and non-ideological discourse is bearing fruit, as is his readiness to acknowledge Chávez’s contributions to the poor.
“As president, Capriles has pledged to continue popular government programs, such as the misiones (i.e. health care, education and other safety nets), a rare position from the part of the Venezuelan opposition. At the same time, the opposition’s platform is built around combating government inefficiency, crime and economic stagflation.”
Chavez is still very popular in Venezuela, and he has been resilient through the years. But his health is now a major concern, because he was diagnosed with cancer last year and recently had an operation in Cuba to remove a tumor from his abdomen. Will he even make it to the election? Who would succeed him if not?
Chavez has been a longtime critic of U.S. foreign policy, and oil exports to the U.S. are at their lowest level in 20 years. Would that change with Capriles in power? According to Reuters, Capriles has promised to prioritize relationships with “democratic” nations.
United States (November 6)
The economy dominates most of the headlines in the United States, as President Barack Obama is seeking a second term in the aftermath of a “Great Recession.”
Unemployment is still high, but Obama argues that conditions are improving and the worst is over. A recently released campaign video touts Obama’s handling of the economic crisis as well as other accomplishments, including health care reform and the killing of Osama bin Laden.
Obama’s presumptive opponent is Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts who also ran for the Republican nomination four years ago. Romney has been critical of Obama’s record on job creation and his failure to stem government spending, and he also wants to repeal the health care reform bill, which he says is “an attack on free enterprise.”
The latest polls show that a close race is in store. But it all could change because of one key statistic.
“Keep your eyes on the monthly unemployment reports between now and November,” CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser said. “The numbers will be extremely telling.”
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Renewed hope is one thing, real change is another. Doing the same thing over again repeatedly and expecting a different result is Einstein's definition of insanity. If the world want's real change, it must change the process by which it's governed, not just the personnel. New driver, same jalopy.
Quite true RZ, quite true!
Obama wants to make government bigger.Mitt Romney wants to make it smaller.
MITT ROMNEY 2012!!!!!!!GO ROMNEY!!!!!
Have you analyzed the economic consequences of shrinking the government ?
Richard – have you analyzed the economic consequences of NOT shrinking the government???
For the first time in US history an average government (federal) employee earns more than an average private employee!
This is an abyss that will kill our country. A sector that generates no income for the country (except taxes – taking money from others) is the fastest growing and most expensive sector in our nation. The question is not IF but how soon we should shrink it. Recession or not, the government size needs to be trimmed down ASAP!!!
Obama wants to make government bigger.Mitt Romney wants to make it smaller.
MITT ROMNEY 2012!!!!!!!GO ROMNEY!!!!!
Obama sucks
ROMNEY-PAUL!!!!
Mitt Romney is an idiot. And your a bigger idiot for supporting him.
tell health care the one about doing the same thing and expecting different results. definition of insanity.
I am pro-Obama, but I think based on what happened in France last Sunday, there are more than 90% chance he might follow Nicolas Sarkozy.
I totally agree RZ.
Ron Paul 2012, the only politician that will not give Lebanese born Netanyahu all of our tax money for wars they are not brave enough to fight on they`re oun!
Anyone voting for Obama should be exported to Venezuela. The tribe has spoken. Time for Obama to go.
when will the Repubs realize that the majority voted for Obama, which is why he is in office. You lost. You still can't get over it, and for the last 4 years have had no goal but to stand in the way of him even forming a functioning government, let alone get any legislation passed that could improve things. Then you point to the fact that he got little accomplished during his time in office as justification to oust him. How about this, why don't you merely stop getting in the way and let him and the senate actually govern. If it works, great. If it doesn't, then you will get your chance next time.
Chrissy,
Your argument sucks. It would be the same with a republican president. the fact of the matter is that a 'guilty' America elected a socialist that had never held an executive post in his life. Get your head out of the sand.
And Fascist Bush did a better job? Last check it takes longer than 4 years to mop up someone shi tting all over the floor for 8.
Ex-Dem, I was thinking the exact same thing about YOUR argument.
"hear mittens roar" – how long have you been a communist? I mean were you born stupid or is this a later development??
It just doesn't matter who you put there or you vote for, at the end the result will be the same if not worst. Some people reminds me of someone who's flashlight don't light anymore and that same person is playing with 50 dead batteries and still trying to find two that works.
Yes... Out the door. Then he can go on speaking tours for the rest of his life. Since that is all that he is really qualified to do.... Talk a big ball game.
If Obama does lose...that's a big IF considering all factors. He can run again in 4 to 8 years you know...either way he is going to get 8 years in the white house.
Let's all hope that the C.I.A. and the notorious British MI-6 don't hijack these elections for the right-wing thugs in both Washington and London. These people have far to much control as it is!!!
i thougt it was only ISI in Pakistan controlling the ballot outcomes for their own agendas.
but atleast in US the president/congress do not loot from the economy. and US SC is well established independent instiituition.
Don't fordet amust, that the majority in the Senate and Congress are on the payroll of the M.I.C. in one way or another! The M.I.C. is quite greedy and far more powerful than the Mafia!!!
Man, you forgot Ghana- December, 7. This election is also important and can shape the situation in West Africa.
Did yiu see the words ( 5 major elections ) -_-
Under Netherlands, the Euro is worth more than the dollar. You are giving the readers the wrong impression by saying millions.
yup, should be $ 18 billion
Egypt: The two days of violence – apparently staged by Islamists – outside the defence ministry in Cario last week might dramatically alter the political balance two weeks before the presidential election. The attack on the defence ministry last Friday had infuriated many Egyptians, weakened Islamist groups, bolstered the popularity of the still much respected army, and boosted the chances of the candidates from the secular side of Egyptian politics, including those with links to the former Mubarak regime.
it may have been staged by anti-islamist forces to derail their momentum...who knows, will wait for election to bear the truth and people real wishes to come true.
the dominican republic also have election this year. May 20th. And i thing they need some help from the united states and other countries in order tova . Thank you
"14.2 billion euros (about $19 million)"
That's quite a swing in the exchange rate, from the last I heard. Someone should notify Forex.
Netherlands: The Dutch coalition government collapsed over the austerity measures. Prime Minister Mark Rutte called elections for 12 September after the controversial anti-Islam, anti-immigration Eurosceptic politician Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party (PVV) refused to back billions of euros in cuts to the 2013 budget. The Dutch viewed Geert Wilders's last-minute walkout from the budget negotiations as an irresponsible act. His supporters have turned their backs on him and are reinventing themselves.
Venezuela: Hugo Chavez should step down and enjoy life as long as he can. He can read and write memoires etc.
I wish they'd put Zakaria's name in the headline. It would save me a click or two.
Most Countries from above will probably surprise us will soon with their New Leaders .
But let's not hope that this is going to be the case and this country,since this President of United States has nearly kept every promise
he made during his election campaign and this very Rare, even in Global World Politics !
Martin
musiccitypostfree.com
American election is critical among all.
The Bahamas just voted in the same old corrupt party PLP, it tells you a lot of the electorate, " A nations for Sale" One of the MP's even made a statement "Stupid Black Bahamians", and got voted in....what does that tell you. The Perry Christie and Phillip Davis were involved before hand in the oil drilling prospects, they made sure they were aligned, shameful.... I understand the PLP entire campaign was against Foreigners coming in and keeping the Bahamas only for Bahamians. All Foreign Investors should take this to heart and take their business else-where.
14 billion euros is not 19 million dollars. its 18 billion dollars.
an alliance of the real left and the honest right is possible and necessary, against imperialist wars and economic terrorism! that growing possibility keeps wall street and DC awake at night.
Obama lied.Polls are showing that this race is turning to Mitt Romney side.
MITT ROMNEY 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO MITT ROMNEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Get back on your meds.
Don't even think about the possibility of Hugo Chavez loosing the elections. Even if he dies , someone else will take over under the same vision and ideal of socialism. Hugo has lower the poverty line % from 63% to 24 % among many other good things he has done for the poors, which were 80% 2 decades ago.
Obviously, you have never been to Venezuela. I bet you don't even know where Venezuela is..
Comrade Richard –
LOL!!!
Whatever drugs you've been taking seem to be working, I know numerous people from Venezuela and most if not all would flog you if they saw the communist manifesto you just published.
Vote, forget and vote again. The world keeps running in circles unable to find new ideas and systems.
@ Schizo; Spread the truth man ! So much has changed over the last 100 years it's almost mind boggling ! But our system of government ????? Heck, didn't ancient Rome have a senate ?????
It’s awful that CNN reporter says Pena Nieto is leading the polls. I am from Mexico and that is not TRUE. We have a lot of problems here but the main one is the political corruption and this is has been originated by PRI party. It’s incredible how they need support from everybody but sorry guys…We a need a truly politician like Lopez Obrador. He will have the best people in his team to grow up with all Mexicans. AMLO 2012-2018! Go for the Victory!
Obama is the most worthless president the us has ever had. He has evolved alright its called re election. He is anti god anti patriotism. If u dont get him out we r goin down. So stick your head in the sand and kiss your butt good by.
Obama has done the best he could to clean up after Bush in these 4yrs. He has made more progress than i expected him too. I say we give this brother another 4yrs, besides Osama was found while he was in office . Unless this other guy is talking about making college tuition cheaper or at least gettin college students free books he might have a hard time getting into office. and for the one who said obama is worthless i know its because hes black because Bush wasnt worth a dang penny.
Latia – It's scary to listen to people like you, I mean if Obama was executing people left and right you'd still find a reason to defend him. Not too long ago young people and especially women were very enthusiastic about this leader in Germany. Hitlerjugend has turned into the likes of you, the Obamanistas. Very sad. Note, I'm not a republican, I'm an independent, I simply hate to see the kind of fear mongering and hate toward the other side people like you espouse.
When the polling average showed Obama losing ground fast to Romney just yesterday, articles started appearing on left wing media(CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg, etc)saying Obama's lead was increasing. Of course the poll they werre referencing was CNN, which is about as pro Obama as can be.
The moral? Don't believe a word you read in mainstream media, it cannot be trusted to tell the truth even if it has no reason to lie.
Actually, I think the moral is more along the lines of "from the far right, everything looks left-leaning".
Obama for second term !
Its the republicans, stupid !
Maria Bogren – 'For the first time in US history an average government (federal) employee earns more than an average private employee!'
and what does that say about conservative tax policies? they have pushed average private wages DOWN so far that govt slobs make more than private individuals. (look it up)
don't you think private wages should rise with productivity gains? or you're happy that all of the income gains now go to the top .4% instead of being re-invested in the middle class?
Aland – good try but you're using a very biased and false agenda. Wages in the private sector always go down in a recession – it's called supply & demand for you socialists. The wages in the private sector have stagnated whereas in the public sector they've exploded both in size and the scope. The size and the true cost of our enormous public sector (federal & state) is the cancer of our society. ...and just like cancer it kills our nation stealthily and very gradually.
I believe everyone supporting both of these candidates are idiots...
Both dems and gop have conspired along with the media to take our rights away, little by little. please read the fine print before voting. Dr. Paul seems to be the only candidate who loves this country. Wake up you idiots, Dr. Paul is finghting for the commons....
Can anyone really tell me what Mitt Romney stands for? I saw the debate with Ted Kennedy. I thought Romney was more liberal than Kennedy. He has now said he has changed all his positions including Health Care and is now severely conservative. He was not as Governor. Will he change again after the election? He wanted the auto industry to fail and now takes creidit for its comeback without doing anything. How can he be trusted?
How can Obama say "the worst is over"? He lied to get elected by a bunch of YouTube generation idiots and has done nothing but spend for welfare programs (honoring his own welfare mother?) and other debt-creating nonsense.
LIED ???? !!!!!! In 2000, Bush needed the exact votes from the state his brother was the governor of. Hmmmm ??? Bush told the truth ?? WMD's in Iraq. Wow and you call Obama a liar ?? We had a liar for eight years.
The United States is no longer the dominant power in the free world. Obama will work much better with global leaders than Mr Romney. Sadly there are so many who can not accept the fact that this very smart man is african american. Let's look past his sin color.
So many in american hate Obama, in his own country,but the world loves him. Believe me I have traveled abroad many times. He is so beloved by world leaders and people abroad.
pardon my typos, please.
Someone please tell me how one man can take a whole country down ?? How ?? To all conservatives....Obama wins relections in Novemeber. Like it or not, Mr Obama wins re-election. No one mancan take down a country. It takes more than one. He loves this country as much as anyone.