Editor's Note: The following text is from GlobalPost, which provides views — important, moving or just odd — from around the world.
By Paul Ames, GlobalPost
It was the scenario never to be named — a prospect so terrible that the mere mention of it would conjure up doom and destruction for the eurozone.
In the last few days, however, the risk that Greece could be forced out of the currency bloc has become too real to be ignored. The once-taboo subject has become an unavoidable topic of conversation among Europe’s financial leadership.
“The price would be very high if they decided to leave the euro,” warned German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble before talks Monday with his eurozone partners.
Governors of three central banks have openly raised the option of a Greek exit.
“Technically, it could be managed,” said Patrick Honohan, the Irish governor. “It is not necessarily fatal, but it is not attractive.”
Even Jose Manuel Barroso, the usually cautious president of the European Commission, had a stark warning for the Greeks: “If a member of a club does not respect the rules of the club, it’s better not to remain in the club,” he told Italy’s Tg24 TV last week.
In the corridors of the European Union’s headquarters, the fear now is not only that Greece could be forced out, but that the resultant chaos would spread quickly to Portugal, Ireland, Spain and beyond, causing a collapse of the euro currency and a generalized economic meltdown.
The prospect has more than just Europe worried. For all its problems, the eurozone’s $13.6 trillion economy remains the world’s second largest. Its collapse would risk a global economic earthquake making Lehman Brothers look like a mild tremor.
“This is not just about Europe. There is a possibility that it may spread to the global economy,” Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told Dow Jones Newswires over the weekend. “This is the biggest downside risk factor for the Japanese economy.”
The doomsday scenario is not yet inevitable, but unless European leaders get their response right, the dominoes could start to fall very quickly.
Greece could be forced into a rerun of its inconclusive May 6 election in mid-June. Polls predict an even stronger showing for the mishmash of Trotskyites, neo-Nazis and other anti-austerity groups whose surge in support triggered the current impasse.
They want Greece to renege on commitments to cut its huge budget deficit in exchange for the 130 billion euro bailout. Germany and other creditors have warned that would lead to a freezing of bailout payments. A bankrupt Greece would then be forced to drop out of the eurozone.
As that prospect draws near, savers facing the threat of exchanging their euros for a much weaker new national currency could spark a run on the banks and send their money to Germany or some other safe haven. Some reports suggest that Greeks have already transferred 250 billion euro out of the country.
Renewed fears over Greece are already having a major impact on other at-risk countries. Portugal’s stock index hit its lowest level since 1996 on Monday, and Italy and Spain both saw rates on their bonds rise to the highest levels this year.
If Greece heads towards a euro exit, creditors would send those rates soaring, casting doubt on the nations’ ability to pay their debts. Savers in Portugal, Ireland and Spain could also take fright and move their money abroad. Shaky banks would implode. G8 economies Italy and France would come under threat.
Saving the euro, at that point, would need a massive intervention by the European Central Bank, backed by increased firewall funding from Germany and other more stable northern European nations. An agreement to share debt burdens or devalue the euro might also be required.
It is by no means certain, however, that skeptical voters in Germany, the Netherlands and Austria would go along with that. The incoming Socialist administration in France and restless political parties in Italy could also rebel against austerity measures, which the northerners are likely to insist upon as part of a new financing deal.
Ireland could rule itself out of any future EU bailouts if its austerity-weary voters reject the EU’s fiscal discipline treaty in a May 31 referendum.
As eurozone finance ministers gathered in Brussels on Monday evening, officials were acknowledging that the risk of a Greek exit — they are calling it the "grexit" — is now as great as at any time since the crisis erupted in late 2009.
But Jean Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who chaired Monday's meeting, insisted that other EU members were not seeking to push Greece out.
"Nobody was mentioning an exit of Greece from the euro area (in the ministerial meeting). I am strongly against," Juncker said in a news conference. "I don't envisage, not even for one second, Greece leaving the euro area. This is nonsense. This is propaganda."
Given that most Greeks say they want to keep the euro, European leaders are hoping they will return to mainstream politicians if there is a second election in June.
For that to happen, leaders in other European countries might have to take a gamble and intervene directly in the election campaign by making it clear that the vote will be, in effect, a referendum on staying in the eurozone.
"Without a Greek commitment, this (bailout fund) won't work, and this is the responsibility of Greek politicians," said Olli Rehn, the EU's economics commissioner, after the ministers' meeting. "The future of Greece and the welfare of its citizens lie more than ever on the shoulders of Greek politicians."
There is a risk that more foreign lecturing to the Greeks could backfire if voters rebel against yet more outside interference, but the EU is rapidly running out of options if it wants to keep the eurozone together.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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The end of the Eurozone would be the best thing that can happen to Europe, but the bigwigs over there don't want us to know it.
Write the obituary, in time the EURO will go the way of the EDSEL.
The problem is not only the sovreign debt crisis in Greece, it's also about confidence. A Greek exit, which accelerated withdrawal of cash from banks in other vulnerable Eurozone economies, would create the imperative for yet more emergency lending to banks. The European Central Bank would be overstretched. Besides there would be a huge write-off of the separate 50bn Euros of Greek government bonds held by the ECB and Eurozone national central banks. The tax payers will then discover more skeletons in their closets.
@ jvh; Step 3. It is common knowledge that when buying, or actually "INVESTING" in equities, the gains/losses are normally deemed CAPITAL gains/losses. However, SHORT sales of equities, on the other hand, are a different animal. Selling short does not involve any investment, and therefore, the gains/losses are usually treated as INCOME gains/losses. Go figure.
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I discovered that Willie12345, George Patton, J. Foster Dulles, Joseph McCarthy, Marine 5484, Yacobi and Patrick-2 are the same guy.
If you have an iphone or an android, sign in to this site to see that we all have a colour assigned us for these blogs. If you have a picture of yourself in your email account, then your photo shows up,
Willie12345, George Patton, J. Foster Dulles, Joseph McCarthy, Marine 5484, Yacobi and Patrick-2 stole my moniker to post very stupid messages.
We do not think this person is a man, we think GP et al. is a very very little mischieveous girl.
Fortunately, it has no intellect.
I think there are always Plan B's, C's and X'es. It only takes maturing for a plan to be put into action... And well meanwhile the speculators will take their due off course. Wish I had money to invest in stocks now. That would be shortest term profit I would get. Best year to make short term buy and sell. By the way try to listen to the words of a song called "Masuarade". I like the George Benson version. Meanwile business went into a full stop even here in Turkey.
Have you ever considered hedge funds or derivatives ? Here's an old and new article in case you're intrigued.
http://www.forbes.com/global/2004/0524/030_print.html
http://problembanklist.com/banks-amass-trillion-in-derivatives-jp-morgan-loses-billion-and-volcher-rule-debates-continue-0520/
It has been a bad Gyro for the Euro.
it is rare that one can hide the instability of a house of cards with smoke and mirrors for long.
Euro is doomed because the countries with money don't want to share with the countries that are broke-sound familiar. You need work for what you get and don't spend beyond your means there is no world sugar daddy.
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you can do with a few pics to drive the masesge home a bit, but instead of that, this is magnificent blog. A great read. I will certainly be back.
There are several dangers here. The rise of fascism is huge. Unemployed, desperate people tend to turn to fascism and it's dangers. Unemployment in Spain is extremely large – in the young category of workers it is nearly 50 percent. Also, this is the world's second largest economy – the Eurozone. It will impact all of us if it implodes. Owning stocks in Europe now is beyond risky. I tend to believe that this will collapse fast, which means that small investors won't have a chance to sell quickly enough to get out. The northers European countries can't continue to back the southern countries that refuse to be fiscally responsible. They will cut their losses because they will have to. This mess has been building for many years now. Greece's mess was the Olympics, being pushed into the Euro, no consequences for tax evaders, the monks of Mt Athos ripping off the country for years on shady land deals, etc. This was a train wreck coming for many years, and Europe has propped up this mess, desperate to stop the inevitable.
Agreed. We are heading towards the next World War. Things are bad over in the USA as well. No decent jobs for young people, low wages. Sad thing is, major regime changes and chaos may make a better world in the end (or worse, you never know).
if the fascists call the victims "fascist" before the victims call the fascists "fascist", do the fascists by default become the victims?
"the rise of fascism is huge"???????????
To be fascist, the Europeans would need to beliieve in a totalitarian state rule by a supreme leader (dictator ) who controls everything possible and treats people harshly; and, that is impossible.
anyone for Greek rotisserie lamb ?
Greece is about to prove to the world that Socialism destroys a society and a government. Greece will help the US oust its socialist tyrant, Obama. Liberal socialists throughout the world will be ousted as their countries collapse into third world status. Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France ... civil war, starvation, the destruction of the cities ... it is only a few months away!
I am recently reading the part on Atinna in Heredotus. Individual people's behavior do not look much different. Atinna was a democracy 2500 years back as it is now. The problems she faced back than were harder than our day. The rest is just current day papparazia
yea, it won't be log before the right wing neofascists assume power. That would just tickle your funnybone eh?
funny thing is most of the most stable (high per capita GDP and low debt) nations are socialist. Also the fasted growing economy in the world, which has close to a 2 trillion dollar cash reserve is COMMUNIST China. Your comment is beyond stupid. Any political / economic system can fail if people (like leaders in Greece) repeatedly make bad decisions.
The Chinese didn't become prosperous until they adopted capitalist methods. At that, only a certain portion of the population (i.e., those operating under the capitalist regimen) are succeeding. The rest still live under repressive communism and live in poverty.
Hallo, ich bin der Administrator der Gruppe Nova Vita Group invited pohots only, post 1 comment 2, und wir wfcrden uns freuen, wenn Du dies zu unserer Gruppe hinzuffcgen wfcrdest.
You have no clue what you are talking about. The strongest and richest countries in Europe are socialist. What we are doing in America is what is going to collapse.
Ridiculous.
Yes the socialist Greeks destroy their society but guess who gave them the tool ? the Capitalist Germans who really enjoy the profits. Let all involved be hit with the pain , not just one side.
If you are correct and it happens here I doubt you will be able to survivr the chaos !!!
I could not agree more.
As a small child in Hong Kong during the 1960's, I remember vividly the tales of horror spoken by escapees from China fleeing the effects of the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution and the riots and bombings brought by Communist sympathizers during the 1967 Hong Kong riots. It is those very events that makes me intensely detest Leftist ideas to this day.
Europe's infatuation with socialism will have to be drastically scaled down to the level of Germany, a country that has more experience with a modern civil service system than anywhere else in the world and knows that the social services system in southern Europe is untenable.
dd, you are preaching to your fellow machine-created wall street bots here.
seems that last time they tore down the tower of babel, well things did t go well for aonnye I understand, those at the top fall furthest.~in reality a mass coronal ejection from the sun ,with the magnitude such as the sept 1859 carrington event is a far bigger threat to destroying our electronics, which does include the internet.-sending your gold into orbit with nucs, waiting for the solar storm does conduct some of the harm aside, done at the right moment in the right place
Whether the weaker countries of the Euro leave first or the stronger countries leave first one thing seems certain. There is seemingly going to be a pulling apart no matter what. Maybe it would be best for the stronger countries to leave the Euro. This would allow the Euro to depreciate and help with exports from the weaker countries. Strong countries like Germany would no longer have to bail out the weaker countries like Greece, nor risk the weaker countries taking the stronger countries down with them.
This a plane so to speak that is going to crash. It will either be an uncontrolled crash or a controlled belly-landing type crash with hopefully minimal damage.
Let them all eat cake !!
The eurozone, having been artificially created has no long term prospects of success. The goal was attractive, but there is just too much discontent within the member nations. Hardworking , successful countries are tired of supporting those who are lazy and expect something for nothing. If not for Germany's guilt the eurozone would have collapsed long ago.
Your assumption that the failing countries are lazy is surely your ignorance on display. America is one of the hardest working countries in the world and we are about to go under.
Theft of the American dream was by our Government not the poor
DOOMSDAY 2012 – Too Big to Fail Part Deux – The IDEA that the Banking Interests of the 0.001% are MORE Important than the PEOPLE is What Greeks are NOT Buying and WE in the USA should NEVER have accepted. Here We the People GAVE Wall Street Banks the MONEY to Buy the RUINS (Meaning OUR Homes and Businesses) of the Economy THEY Destroyed.
i see, and i agree !!! i see no other area where foolishness and unfairness is more apparent.
It is easy to point to "fiscally irresponsible" countries and cast the blame. But lax creditors are just as much a part of the problem. Make no mistake, Germany is not bailing out Greece, they are bailing out private German banks that loaned Greece money. These private banks made poor business decisions and now want the public to bail them out why they keep the profits. These too big to fail banks need to be limited to a size that can fail. This will allow a mechanism to wipe out all the bad debt in the economy.
You can't loan money to a known crack addict and then complain when they can't pay you back while claiming the moral high ground. Creditors need to accept the risk in addition to the reward in these transactions.
Right you are, you have spelled it out clearly for all to see. The thieves are not the people, it is the Banks and Politicians.
This globalization thing has backfired big time. IF countries were not so intertwined, we would not have the domino effect. Perhaps it was better when a Country competed against other Country's one on one, and if one Country's Economy failed, it was just a "thats too bad ...." versus the fiasco scenarios we have now
Jeff, I have too often said there are a couple of basic ways you can harness horsepower. One way is to properly design and build an engine, then add gasoline to explode inside it. Or you can take a tank of gasoline, throw a match in it, and then try to build an engine around it. The intentions behind globalization were actually good. But for it to have worked properly, we should have designed and built a global engine first. And that didn't really happen.
all by design. Only, the designers didn't have the 99%'s wellbeing in their mind while hatching the scheme.
Too bad we can't kick some states out the U.S. of A. zone. You know, the ones that pay the least federal taxes because they have so many poor that use the most social services while their rich complain about the fed having social services at all? Like Texas and Florida?
It has been de fault of de Greeks for two millineia to show fiscal irresponsibility. Reality will be body blows from every direction.
These dominoes are tipping a llittle more and . . . .
It's frightening to imagine Obama being in office when this happens.
What frightens me is that you voted for Sarah Palin!!!!! Hahahahahahahahaha
What an idiotic comment. The bottome line of the success or failure of Ceos and Presidents is the final profit lose statement. Prior to Obama, the lose or debt in this natin was 9.5 Trillion in debt to Republicans and 1.1 Trillion to Democrates. Carter carried previous debt from WW2 through his term and added nothing, which was 500 bil. This is fact so you tell me how you can justify the fiscal responsibility of the 'Conservative" You people taut Ronald Regan as a great President, however he screwed us big time and lead ud to unsustainability which is coming to an end soo. Obama inherited 10.2 Trillion in debt and an economy that was heading to a depression, so are you better off today than you were with the crash of the Bush years. Bush is still a great failure to the repubs
Obama added more to our national debt than the previous 3 presidents in U.S. history as reported by the CBO and the Treasury! ...you can look these facts up at "federalbudet" ....c0m site!
Obamagheddon at its finest! Goldman Sachs helped the Greeks get into the E.U.,by hiding their debt! ...how many Goldman Sachs people are on Obama's white house staff again? ...4 or perhaps 5! ...I'd vote for micky mouse or Sarah Palin, before I'd vote for the most expensive leader in the history of humanityagain!
Could you supply the names of these "...4 or perhaps 5" Goldman Sachs guys who are on Obama's payroll?
Jesus has a great message of peace and fonivgeress, and just by following him it indeed would save humanity, not only here and now ,but for eternity, agreed on that, but Jesus is only 4 gospels.Let me know if his words match the the OT's god of chopping your dick off against world domination ? That's the word of what god exactly, not mine. The one that is jealous, seeks revenge, punishes and changes his mind a bit later.Again, the word of what god, Moloch?
What is shocking is that such a small country (about the population of Ohio) has such a large impact on the entire globe.
The mouse that roared?
it's the Greek's power of inspiration and suggestion ("a just and peaceful world is not only possible, but also possible only when you reject fear-mongering finacial terrorists") that financial terrorists dread most.
Greece has been letting the world know it's going to kill itself for how long now? I think they just want an audience. Debt increases until the interest payments can't be made, then more loans for the interest payments, then skrew tightening to keep the interest payments coming, then more loans. The real tragedy is some rich 1%er is worried he might miss an interest payment, so we all have to keep hearing about it until they do something, but the bankster knows he doensn't wanna kill the golden goose anymore than the goose wants to die, so it's this pathetic public spectacle between the bankers and these countries.
Imagine if Greece wasn't allowed into the EU in the first place. Oh wait that's right, who else other than Goldman Sachs helped Greece to hide its debt in order to sneak into the EU. Goldman Sachs walked away with huge amounts of profit, meanwhile EU and the world economy is falling further and further into chaos. The Devil certainly exists, and he is CEO of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and the rest of Wall St. We need revolution.
Agreed, ....and alot of these ex-wall streeters from from corps. like Goldman- Sachs are currently working for Obama's white house staff!
its all a game to control the world, what is debt if you control both sides of the spectrum. If you can borrow money at the cost of taxpayers and loan it to yourself to save yourself from ever failing upon bad financial decisions, you would own the world.
an apt summary of the scheme there, aron.
It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine!
so do I! making room for a just and peaceful world!
I thought george soros offered some practical advice on Europe. I don't know why germans wouldn't listen. I understand Germans work ethic is triple the work ethic of any french or greek but Germans also are the biggest beneficiary of euro.
let us always meet each other with a smile, for the smile is the beginning of love, and once we begin to love each other naturally we want to do something.
--《seniorconnecting.C^o^m》---,it is a nice place for over 40 people.
There's nothing that another tax break for the wealthiest 1% can't solve.
As of Dec. 2011 (CIA world fact book)
$15,390,000,000,000 Europe Unions's total spending power
$15,040,000,000,000 USA total spending Power
i just cant help but wonder if these people who want to see the collapse of the Euro... want to see the end of the world economic system. because if the Euro does crash... the world will enter a depression that will last for many many years.
the united states in 1 country..... the euro's spending ability is a combination of all the nations w/in the EuroZone. currently 23 Nations. so when you combine 23 countries Spending ability and relativly rich countries at that. its bound to be high. now as a country either leaves or is forced out that spending Power WILL drop.
Yes it will drop but the point im trying to make is the Euro is the largest Economy in the world. If that crashes because of lack of faith in the currency because countries begin leaving, will cause a large hit to the rest of the world, one we will be feeling for a very very long time.
no one buys your fear mongering anymore. "the day you stop feeding us parasite, you will die!" riiiiiight.
i have a degree in history with minors in economic and political theory and from what i can see from your posts, you have no idea what you are talking about. Yes the economic policies enforced by todays governments do not work. You can either have capitalism with low taxes and have everyone take care of themselves or you can have socialism with high taxes and everyone helps each other out, but what the western world has tried to do is win elections, socialism with low taxes. That doest work. That gives rise to the deficits that have caused Europe so many problems.
So,the slip of the white reace continues?.Your dint last evn 500 years.Anceitn empires like China and India are back.Perhaps even Persia.I am an old one, thats been watching keenly for a long time.
From your spelling ability its amazing they have lasted this long. If your going to attack someone's race and be a race supremacist at least do so intelligently.
Perhaps, you can explain why these countries have traded their native togues for english then?
Hi,i am a citizen of the world and i am Greek.Usually when i am in danger i can understund it.But us i look in the mirror i do not look worried at all.And this is becouse it does not much to the big picture.
Greece is not being forced out of the eurozone. The Greeks are kicking the parasites out of their country!
many other countries have walked away from the financial terrorists because that was the only way to rid the parasites, and they have thrived happily ever after. know your history.
"The future of Greece and the welfare of its citizens lie more than ever on the shoulders of Greek politicians." Actually, it's on the shoulders of the Greek people, to vote in politicians that have a clue. Of course, that would require the Greek people to have a clue, which, from all accounts, they don't.
Looks like George Bush gave the Greeks lessons on national budgets and deficits.
....considering that Obumbles added more to the national debt than the last 3 presidents combined ($5 trillion in less than 3 years), I'd say that your full of it! ...you can look these facts up at the "federalbudget" site!
Austuriano; The Democrats flat out own the two most expensive gov'ts in the history of humanity! In first place, the all Democrat controlled 111th congress and Obama blew away 8 years of G.W.Bush in their first 19 months in office for spending according to the CBO and the Treasury. Coming in at a very distant second was the all Democrat controlled 110th congress in Bush's last two years in office! ...M.G. is correct you're full of it! ...LOL
With Obama spending like a drunken sailor, the U.S. will end up like Greece! Obama is literally the most expensive leader in world history with no signs of him letting up on the spending! ...Anyone But Obama (ABO)
With Obama and the Democrats in control we now have runaway food and fuel prices, coupled with a devalued dollar and down graded bonds! ....sounds like Greece to me!
The Dims will never admit that socialism doesn't work and they'll never stop even if it takes every dime you've got! ......and america is just about out of dimes!
Greece can't sell its goods to Germany and other EZ partners because it cannot devalue its currency becasue it must use Euros of the same value as other EZ nations. Therefore nobody will buy its products because they are too expensive. Greece cannot simply reduce its prices because it costs more to produce the same item than it costs Germany and most other EZ countries. Therefore its export base of manufactured and most agricultural products is destroyed. What I would say to the hacks on CNN is – WAKE UP, STUPID! For the van Rompuy cretin to talk of 'obeying rules' is a public admission of the willful ignorance and pettiness of the little men who have criminally seized control of Europe. Before you write any more drivel on CNN, go on YouTube and watch the videos of Nigel Farage MEP – this will give you something of the truth to take to your readers.
The Euro never made any sense for reasons which are clearly evident now. If Greece was not in the union it could devalue its currency and raise money by selling their exports cheaply in the world market. The same goes for Spain, Portugal, stc. In order to have a "United States of Europe" Europeans not only need to unite their Central Banks but also their 17 Governments. This is not likely> Europe is not and will never be United like the US because they are not one country but 17. It might be painfull in the in the short run but the better obtion in the long run. These are crazy times.