Editor’s note: Salman Shaikh is the director of the Brookings Doha Center. He previously served as special assistant to the United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process. The views expressed in this article are solely those of Salman Shaikh.
By Salman Shaikh, Special to CNN
Will Kofi Annan’s latest proposal for a political transition end the conflict in Syria? The short answer is no, not in its current form.
Syria is now, in the words of Bashar al-Assad, in a “state of war” as fighting intensifies between government forces and opposition fighters. While the diplomats have talked and talked, Syria has entered the point of no return.
The effects are plain for all to see: a regime increasingly unrestrained in waging war on its own people; a militarized opposition that is more effective and less controllable; and a region, as the downing of the Turkish military plane illustrated, that is more unpredictable and combustible.
It is under these conditions that Annan jettisoned Plan A, which sought to end the violence by placing unarmed U.N. observers in a war zone under the dual authority of the Syrian government and the U.N. Security Council. He now seeks to unite key international players such as Russia, the United States, China and the European Union by proposing Plan B: a Syrian national unity Cabinet that would include government and opposition members and exclude those who would undermine it. (Which is the closest Annan can get, without really saying it, that al-Assad would be excluded in the future government.)
But there is little hope among Syria’s opposition that this will work.
Leaders in the Free Syrian Army have dismissed Annan’s efforts outright as a colossal waste of time, while key figures in the Syrian National Council and other opposition groups remain highly skeptical. They are asking basic unanswered questions: What regime figures would be included in the proposed unity government? What guarantees are there that al-Assad and his family would be excluded? In conversations with those opposition figures, not one person has indicated they would be willing to join such a government. Many, however, have indicated their willingness to join such a government after al-Assad and those orchestrating the killings have been deposed.
Another unanswered question remains the position of Russia and whether it has finally turned against al-Assad. Some believe it might be doing so, especially by showing initial support for Annan’s unity government. But in recent U.S.-Russia meetings, the gap between the two countries has remained wide as Vladimir Putin flatly refuses to discuss a post-Assad scenario as a starting point for a political transition.
Russia still believes a political solution can only be achieved through a Syrian-led dialogue between the regime and the opposition. By contrast, the U.S. has given its support to Annan’s idea as long as, in the words of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, “it starts from the basic premise that Assad and his regime must give way to a new democratic Syria.”
There has been much speculation on Russia’s motivation for standing by the al-Assad regime, but the simple fact is that it is not budging — at least not yet.
With the first direct route apparently closed, there is perhaps a second that could tip the balance or at least get Moscow to engage on a post-Assad political transition in Syria.
A much less discussed aspect of the diplomatic impasse has been the ongoing difficulty of forging a credible Syrian opposition platform that binds Syria’s diverse communities and different opposition movements.
The major opposition blocs will be attending an Arab League-sponsored conference in Cairo on Monday and Tuesday to discuss a transition plan for what they consider to be al-Assad’s inevitable ouster. While there are low expectations of the meeting and the fractured Syrian opposition itself, the goal — attempting to unite — should be strongly encouraged.
In many ways, such a platform has been developing despite the continuing dysfunction and shortcomings of the Syrian National Council, which is seen as the leading opposition bloc. The Council has recently been joined by other opposition figures and groups, such as a fledgling National Bloc, in the effort against al-Assad. And the realization that the Council cannot hold sway over all of Syria’s opposition groups — and is unlikely to influence external actors such as Russia — has led to new efforts in Istanbul, Sofia and Cairo to forge a common national platform united around a common national vision.
More on GPS: Circling the wagons on Syria
The last few months have seen how representatives from Syria’s tribes; some of its minorities, including the leaderships of the Kurds and the Druze; the business elite; and recently exiled religious figures have sought to forge such a common national vision for a future of Syria without al-Assad. These groups have aimed to engage with the Syrian National Council and other established opposition groupings, but not to join them. All remain deeply suspicious of the control that Turkey and the well-organized Muslim Brotherhood have exerted on the opposition movement through the Council, which is based in Turkey. Instead, this diverse group has seen itself as a bridge to uniting Syrians against the al-Assad regime and articulating a vision of a modern, democratic and independent Syrian state after the regime has gone.
The international community and international mediators would do well to remember that it is these efforts to forge national unity that can best lead to a political solution in Syria. Aiming to forge a unity government with a regime that continues to bludgeon its people into submission and will not negotiate in good faith is the wrong approach.
With the situation on the ground spiraling out of control, there is no more time to waste. Faced with a genuine opposition platform and its vision for an independent, democratic Syria, Russia might also be forced to think again. Let us hope so. Only then could a successful Plan B and a political solution take hold.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Salman Shaikh.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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let me paste this article from EGYPT on why we,AMERICA should stay the YOU KNOW WHAT out of syria.
Morsi wants release of ‘blind sheikh’
Cairo –
President-elect Mohamed Morsi told a crowd in Tahrir Square on Friday he would work to secure freedom for Omar Abdul Rahman, a blind Egyptian cleric jailed for life over the 1993 World Trade Centre bombing.
“I will do everything in my power to secure freedom for... detainees, including Sheikh Omar Abdul Rahman,” Morsi told the huge crowd of scores of thousands of people in the iconic Cairo square, hub of the 2011 revolution.
Abdul Rahman was convicted in 1995 for his role in the World Trade Centre bombing, plotting to bomb other New York targets including the United Nations, and a plan to kill Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak who was toppled last year. – Sapa-AFP
NOW lets see what responses that you so called "friends of syria" have to say about aiding these AL-QAEDA terrorist as we did in libya!! ALL of these revolts are due to EXTREMIST ISLAMIST SALAFIST RADICAL TERRORIST who have DUPED the OBAMA REGIME!
Excellent Evaluation of the Middle Eastern situation.
egypt at best has always been a tenuous friend. The fact is that America as a fundamentaly Christian nation who supports the Jews will never have a comfortable relationship with Arab nations who are fundamentaly muslim. It is a truely shameful thing that we cannot coexist with one another but it is what it is. Deep religious beliefs will always keep us apart as nations. The only hope is that we can work with each other one on one. It always is more effective when we talk with one another one on one. At the end of the day regardless of where or who we are (color, creed, religion, etc) we all have certain things that make life work. A family, a roof over our heads, food to eat, and a basic need to connect with other people outside of the family is the nature of humans as social animals. The nature of conflict on this earth among humans is very simple..it is satan and his minions. The only hope we have is Jesus.
Morsi is just bluffing, he knows he has to appear tough so that his muslim confrere do not assassinate him.
He is buying time.
Huuuuuum. The UN, huh? Anyway . . . enough of this. We are in no position to tell anyone how they should run their country.
Annan is a fool, a coward, and at worst, complicit in the murder of thousands of people as he tries to weasel his way to another Nobel Prize (the first one was highly questionable as well, but their credibility is already shot with Obama's award).
Nothing will end this conflict aside from pure, unadulterated force. The sooner the weakhearts wearing designer suits and ties with their "mighty pens" realize this, the sooner the slow motion massacre can stop.
The answer to the question is easy. You do to Syria what anyone would do to a bully. You give him back ten times what he gives you. End of problem.
hey G" read the above posting and tell me if you still feel the same way? or maybe you should go to Libya and see for YOURSLEF what the AL-QAEDA REBELS there are doing to people. or you could just ask the US embassy there that was BOMBED just three weeks ago by the same al-qaeda terrorist who we put in power?
or,you could ask the BRITISH AMBASSADOR to Libya who was almost killed just three weeks ago when (once again) our new allies there tried to ASSASINATE HIM by firing and RPG shoulder launched missile at his armour plated S.U.V.
besides,incase you have forgotten,you need A UN MANDATE to attack another country! the rusians and the chinese will do the RIGHT THING and VETO any talk of american based REGIME CHANGE in syria. and if thats not enough to make you come to your senses,the russiand have parked their AIR CRAFT CARRIER,and DESTROYERS off the coast of syria and has told nato that if they attack syria,russia will defend syria! grow a brain!
I chose to disregard your first post and most of your second one, because your inability to spell correctly, use proper punctuation, or capitalize appropriately designates you as a moron of the lowest caliber.
I
you can disagree al you like. you can tell whatever lie that you like. the RUSSIANS do agree with me,and thats all that matters!
Hey CHRIS, how much do the Assad's Mookhabarat pay you to spew this BS. Kudos for G.
I hope the USA & its secret force Al Qaida will stop covert terrorist operation in Syria . Otherwise all plan will be useless .
Alawites did the massacres in Syria. Remember that the Assad regime support al-Qaeda in Iraq against U.S. military .
Muslim Brotherhood will take over Syria sooner or later. The only way it may be prevented for a while if Russia, China, and the West agreed on some secular replacement government, but that's not going to happen.
Put in an Arby's and a McDonalds and a KFC and they will all die from fast food poisoning and the war will stop.
Yes, Annan's new proposal of a "national unity government" has been rejected by Assad. He refuses to bow to foreign pressure and warns against foreign intereference in the conflict. He insists that the Syrians should sort the problems out themselves and plays the card game "civil war" in the absense of an uniting figure, that holds the country together. His intransigence got a welcome boost from Russia, who also wants Assad be part of the solution. The most likely scenario will be a protracted war that is fought to be the bitter end. The Syrian rebels seem to be much better organised and drilled compared to last year. They have vast swathes of areas in the north on the Turkish border under their control. There must be a sense of fatigue amongst Assad's armed forces after being deployed from one restive area to the other in the last 15 months.
Russia might back away from Assad, if the U.S. could propose Moscow an important role in the post-Assad Syria, like overseeing general elections and the transition of power. Russia's commitment to Syria is purely nostalgic. It's in love with the region, yet Assad is not indispensable to the Kremlin.
Well stated
Always a good analysis.
I did not mean it. I lied.
How does that feel you islamic excuse for a human being piece of crap.
Sorry people but there has been alot of moniker stealing by the representative islamic bunch and i want you all to know that, in fact, Jvon is a great analyst and I respect his comments.
I'm convinced that any diplomatic efforts are, as the free syrian army said, a colossoal waste of time. Assad does not give a damn about what the rest of the world thinks of him. Assad cares about haniging onto power, and hanging onto his life. And I think, in exactly that order.
But after 10 years of war for the US, and being 16 trillion dollars in debt, we're just plain tapped out. Gas tank on E. No more wars for the time being unless they are a DIRECT threat to the US itself, or unless a binding treaty like NATO mutual defense is invoked. And even then, the nation invoking mutual self-defense had better not be the one starting the war. The rest of the world can get by just fine without the US playing neighborhood cop. There's plenty other players on the stage who can act, they're just complacent because they're used to the US riding in to deal with it (and sometimes royally screwing it up even further as we do so). Someone else's turn.
Kofi Anan's plan B is the way forward as long as the talks are conditioned with Assad leaving office (Hillary's position). I think that wars are the "old school" way of solving differences. The United Nations has been set up to be a third party negotiator exactly for this situation-to communicate in a calm manner what the two parties want to find a way forward without loss of life, property and the economy going sideways.
What Syria Need is been NUKED...... what the world need is a total ban on Islam.
It is the russion Commitment to once and for all to show the world that the American carrot and stick is finished.The new world order does not include usa as the world polieceman.Wake up this is not about syria it is about the new russia versus usa and un.This is only the beginning.First time ever this much russian and american firerpower in the mediteranian sea.
the only way this ends is the death of Assad.
Annan is an idiot.
iz – do not be an idiot and back up your statements.
Russia can't deal with Chechnia and other "homegrown" extremists. Russia lost to Afganistan. And now russians are like they can do it all. Come on, be real=Russia is not a power that can deal with Middle East and it is not welcomed.Can't even imagine syrians fighting shoulder to shoulder with the russians against it's neighbors. Syrians do not speak russian and russians does not speak syrian. Russians speak "want to expand my claws".
Kofi Annan is a fool to believe his gibberish. the Arab League doesn't give a darn about Syria, so why should we get involved in a civil war? Sen. McCains plan to militarily help the Syrian opposition is a huge mistake. don't Americans realise yet that we, the infidel, will be considered 'the enemy' by all parties in Syria and the middle east if we start to bomb them, a Muslim country. there is nothing we can do, directly. let those silly tribal affairs play by themselves. and many innocents will die, I know, but there is no good thing to come of this if we get involved.
What will it take??
How about every ship and service member and piece of equipment from the US military to get out of every region they are in, and come home.
How about they AWOL, or mutiny or whatever, and do this?
What do you think that would do to world leaders, tptb, etc. ways of thinking??
Blessed Be to all
This is nonsense. The battle lines are already drawn. Annan isn't going to leave power willingly and Hillary isn't going to accept anything less. Talk means nothing right now. Let them fight it out until one side prevails.
Nothing will keep Syria out of an expanding civil war – another crazy/religious country gets violent? This is surprising? It's going to happen to every single one of the middle eastern countries in the next 100 years. I wish they'd get it over with and at least attempt to join the new ways of thinking.
Syria is not our problem. It was at different times part of the Turkish and French Empires. Not the U S Empire.I live in urban USA ( Phila) and we are not safe in walking the streets of U S Cities at night. More people have been murdered this year in the good old USA than in Syria. Thats a fact.I don't usually quote those wicked books of scripture, however the bible says : what does it profit a man to gain whole world if he suffers the loss of his own soul?
The Arab League is the one that should be taking care of this issue. After all, it's Arab killing Arab in Syria. You hardly even hear mention of them related to this conflict. A bunch of spineless oil monarchs that kiss up to the US for $$$ while pretending to hate them at the same time. That's why the middle east gets no respect from the rest of the world. They blame the west for their problems, but they're the ones killing each other like they have been for the last thousand years. I hope I'm alive to see the day when the oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the armpit of civilization dry up. On that day, the world will officially stop caring about how many people are pointlessly killed in the name of Allah.
I give this conflict ninety days before all heck breaks lose in terms of a regional confrontation and a wider war.Thre are already signs that Lebanon is becoming unhinged because of this and Turkey has a formidable fighting force that just might be used to help oust the murderer who rules from Damacus, Assad.
Isn't Kofi Annan retired already? Why the heck is he involved? Not that I am against him. By the way, what does this Ban Ki-Moon guy do? Isn't he the new UN secretary? I have never seen such a UN Secretary before. He is just a disgrace. Ban Ki-Moon is not even around. It seems like he doesn't know how to engage...
We're observing that both Assad regime and opposition are arming themselves. This is U.N message to the whole world. This is making Bush people look good because now the world knows the whole world U.N is a joke.
Tell us some more!
Peace is what the wolrd needs! How can you have peace if you arm protestors?? The Free Syrian Army is a joke! They are CIA, AL Qaeda and a bunch of poor people who are given $100 and a gun to kill people so they can meet their virgins in the next life. These people have no regard for freedom or for humanity. They want this suppsed
"freedom" but they are the ones bombing the country, killing innocent women and children and then shouting Allah ou Akbar (God is Great!).......what is so great about bombing buildings? They are a bunch of rebels using the disguise of peace to terrorize the country. I've visited Syria 4 times and I never heard the term Allah ou Akbar! These mental nut job AL Qaeda terrorists left Libya, Qatar, Iraq and every other hell hole to destroy Syria. I hope to look down on them from heaven and see them in hell with their so called Virgins (the devil in disguise) that they were promised! What the UN should do is go house to house and unarm every individual and save this country from turning into IRAQ or LIBYA. Unless that is what ISRAEL wants.....a neighbor that can unleash terrorists and Islamic militancy at a moments notice. Then and only then will Israel get the green light to attack, because they were instigated by their peaceful, free Syrian Army, jihadist neighbors!!!
Syria isn't waging war on it's own people.
It is waging war on the CIA.
When Mr Shaikh states that the "militarized opposition" is "uncontrollable", this just means they are not controlled by anyone inside of Syria. They are controlled by somebody, but that somebody is at the CIA building in Virginia. That person should be arrested for murder.
The only way the National Unity Cabinet will work is if it has the approval of Mr al-Assad possibly retaining him as President.
I don't hear anything about candidates they prefer in the next election.
downing of an Iranian passenger place by USS Vincennes over Persian Gulf and awarding of that warship commander by US officials is a shameful blot on history of mankind.http://irna.ir/News/General/MP,-US-downing-of-Iranian-passenger-plane-blot-on-mankind%E2%80%99s-history/80211530
I rave, I rage, I take my pills and I feel good.
This thing and ki moon are quite ineffective !
"this thing" what thing?
This is a blogg, not a place for pontification.
my 3-year old wants to know why he's holding the mouse to his ear.