Editor’s note: GPS speaks with historian Niall Ferguson about the rise of China, the likelihood of conflict in Asia and whether Europe is relevant. Watch GPS on Sunday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET for Ferguson's take on the euro crisis.
One of the biggest stories in international terms this century has clearly been the gradual shift in power from West to East, and especially the rise of China. Is China’s continued rise inevitable?
Not much in history is inevitable, but the shift from the West to the East looks like a pretty profound trend that it’s hard to imagine suddenly stopping. The IMF has China’s GDP exceeding that of the United States within four years, and the way growth rates are right now, something amazing would have to happen here in the U.S., and something very terrible would have to happen in China, for that not to take place.
So I think this is the biggest trend in economics, and perhaps geopolitics, in our lifetime. It goes back to the late 1970s and the reforms of Deng Xiaoping. I don’t think it’s going to stop for at least another 10 or 20 years, at which point demographics and other forces will start to slow the Chinese economy down. But this isn’t something that is just about to collapse, and those that think there’s a China implosion just around the corner are engaging in wishful non-thinking. It’s not going to crash. It may slow, but it’s not going to implode.
Asia faces an unusual situation in that it has an established power in Japan, which is contending with two rising powers in the form of China and India. How concerned are you about the prospect for tensions spilling over into clashes in the region?
We should add into the analysis the United States, which is also an Asian power, and which has been the dominant Asian power since 1945. I think the big question is the one that Henry Kissinger posed in his recent book on China and elsewhere, which is namely, can we avoid repeating Europe’s history of great power conflict and rivalry in 21st century Asia? Can we avoid a 1914 moment when the rising power, now China then Germany, goes head-to-head with the dominant power, today the United States, back then the United Kingdom.
It’s clearly a cause for concern that there are so many frictions, most notably over the South China Sea, but also over other issues such as the water problems in the Himalayas. I think there are no good institutional structures in place to avoid the kind of conflict that Kissinger is talking about. You can’t really see anything in the way of Asian integration that’s comparable to European integration, and in particular you can’t see a mechanism for balancing China’s growing economic power and the much lesser powers of China’s neighbors. And that’s a real cause for concern.
The U.S. is no longer in a position to be predominant in the Asia-Pacific – those days are over. And so we’re moving towards an era of bipolarity in a two-power system, and the lesson is pretty clear from the Cold War and other periods. This is a very tense kind of arrangement – and divided hegemony doesn’t usually produce stability.
One former senior U.S. official once said to me that many U.S. policymakers see Europe as “done” and so less interesting and relevant than Asia. Is that fair?
Europe has unfortunately been making itself highly relevant now by teetering on the brink of disintegration the past couple of years, and particularly this year. But Europe can be like the worst soap opera you’ve ever watched. If you follow the current euro crisis, it’s a question of whether Angela loves Francois, or does Mario prefer Francois to Angela. It can get quite wearisome, and many Americans zone out after a certain number of summits.
But in the end, the eurozone economy is comparable in size to the United States economy, and a crisis there has massive ramifications, not least because of the scale of transatlantic trade. So although Europe can seem boring, it is important, and it isn’t going to stop being important. Indeed, it could end up becoming more important if the current crisis can’t be resolved and we see a break up of the eurozone, which is perfectly plausible at this point, because there seems to be no sign at the moment of the Germans willing the means necessary to prevent that disintegration.
Just one more question – what have you made of the level of debate over foreign policy in the U.S. election year so far?
It has been conspicuous by its general absence from the campaign so far. That’s not surprising – everyone knew at the outset that this election would be dominated by the economy. But of course, the economy is in many ways affected by external forces, so it’s quite hard to have a presidential campaign with the rest of the world omitted.
It’s interesting that President Obama has directed much of his fire against Mitt Romney’s career at Bain Capital because it’s alleged Bain was responsible for outsourcing American jobs. That’s the way the foreign dimension is coming into this election. There’s much less of a clear debate going on about grand strategy. Partly because the Romney campaign hasn’t set out an alternative strategy to the one we currently see. I wish he would – I think that would be a good argument to make. But I suppose I can see why the strategists think that this is marginal to the concerns of the average voter in the United States.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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A sociopath that steals names and makes offensive remarks to participants has ruined the comment section in Fareeds blog.
He is a muslim.
Probably under the effects of Christianism or Judaism.
Just because Niall Ferguson is married to Somali Ayaan Hirsi Ali doesn't mean he's a Muslim. In fact he's a self-confessed atheist.
Indeed the era of bipolarity might return with the two powers China and the US dominating the world. Yet I doubt if history of the Cold War would repeat itself, because China would avoid the mistakes the former Soviet had made and the relationship between China and the US might be less confrontational. What's a concern is the comeback of Russia and the emergence of India. As the venue of conflicts will be in Asia, it would preoccupy China more than the US presence there.
Of course China will rise!! With 1.3 billion people China has a population larger than the United States, Canada, Australia, and all of Europe combined. China's rise is due to low costs and the work ethic.. China is a planned economy based on capitalism. China will over take the United States in less then 4 years, and Europe & the United States in about 8 years. At that point the world needs to look out and start to truly worry, because according the a former communist leader "The end result justifies the means". China will do what China wants, and the world in the near future will stand idle as China absorbs more and more economies in order to build their future empire.
I highly doubt Ayaan Hiris Ali will ever marry a religious man, much less a muslim. If you didn't know, she is dead set against Islamization of Europe and is always debating muslim apologists and warning the west against giving special privileges to muslims or any minorities. She has a death threat on her head for a while now.
WIth that said, I disagree with his assessment on China. China is filled with inefficient and inescapable problems, mostly in terms of its own rigidity in regards to freedom and human rights but also in all spheres of life, namely population, poverty, environment, worker's rights, due process etc etc. It faces upto 100,000 protests that the world doesn't hear about and is only in control with the ruthless use of its military machinery. Most of the party members are multi-millionaires with sons and daughters turning into little prince and princes who control their own share of the loot. It is highly inefficient system with lots of holes and it works for now because the west is willing to turn a blind eye to the inhuman treatment of some of its cheap laborers and slave workers in prison which we don't hear about much. research laogai on google and find out for yourself. Now, with the water war pending and CHina deliberately diverting water from Tibet to mainland with mega dams constructions, it will eventually lead to regional conflicts.
In short, it is a tinderbox and all it needs is just a little spark.
Ferguson is a 'self-confessed' atheist? I must 'confess' I did not know atheists would be 'confessing' when stating they are atheists..
SORRY DISREGARD THAT I'M A GIANT RETTART LOL
Is "shift from west to east" a good way to look at China's development or might it be more accurate to view the changes in the Global economy as what happens when previously less developed economies start to function the same as western economies? Perhaps "emergence of developing economies" would be a better way to think of it. I think the natural result of developing economies developing is logically that they will go through a phase where they have available to them large amounts of low wage workers desperate for jobs. China, is typically shown as an example of how a country can take advantage of this to rapidly develop it's economy ostensibly at the expense of jobs in other economies. At some point though, the expectations of it's people is likely to become more akin to those in western economies. It would be interesting to see more coverage on what projections might be for how long it will take for people in China to grow to the average buying power of people in western countries and what the global economy might look like at that point. Would demand in China at that point increase global demand for production so that the need for jobs will increase globally? Is there an efficiency trend from manufacturing automation that will counteract that? What will the overall impact on resources be? Will innovation keep up with finding ways to meet the demand for resources or will there be real global shortages?
I think China will eventually take over the leadership position in GDP but I think they will slow down sooner than later. Part of that rationale is simple math, when you get to be $15 trillion USD in GDP, an 8% growth rate each year is $1.2 trillion and that seems unlikely. The other part of the rationale is really dependent on how much the Chinese consumers consume. China can reach $15 trillion in GDP and still have 10% unemployment. The per capita GDP leaves plenty of room to grow but it's unclear how that will work going forward with a communist Chinese government. I am also extremely curious how China will handle politics when they have multiple companies with $500 billion valuations who are no longer interested in paying Chinese taxes (sound familiar) and they start sourcing elsewhere to optimize revenues.
Good question
Well-known world historian William McNeil wrote the book The Rise of the West in late 1960's as the conclusion of the development of world history until late 1960s.
But since then, China stopped exporting communism, and embarked on the largest scale of modernization in human history. McNeil, now over ninety years old, who had received Obama's humanitarian award in 2010, confessed that he has to rewrite his world history as The Rise of The East in 2010s.
The rise of China and India will be the theme of this century. We will see China forming an alliance with Russia to counterbalance US's diminishing influence in the Pacific.
We're now entering that perilous area - perilous for Chinese savers - where Western banks are looking to push the bogus, super-high risk financial products, the very ones that sank Western economies, onto Eastern investors. They're expressing that this will be due to a new taste for "regulation" in Western economies that doesn't sit well with their industry. Translation: "Let's see if we can find a new market of suckers, in Asia, to sell our dud products to."
Contrary to what pundits might believe, noone wants to see China "implode" and that's not what we expect to happen, anyway. Whether you're the most cold-hearted coin counter or softest humanitarian, a crashing China would be a disaster for everyone. Noone's trying to make that happen. Not even The US.
What the real concern is, to most, is how quickly China chose to break international trade agreements, almost immediately following their membership in this community. How quickly their bullying has outgrown the size of their national "bank account". They freely talk about unbridled, empirical plans in Asia. They've made it clear: We're bigger, we'll take what we want. We don't care.
Maybe I'm biased, assuming that the CCP's motives should always be suspect because I've had friends who work in a very prestigious robotics company, have their work stolen from them, after China feigned a business "partnership" with the company. However, China also had a problem financing the original projects and miscalculated how quickly it could progress, based on funding access. Essentially, they made stuff up and said they'd have the money to start and they didn't. They needed help using the technology they'd stolen and tried to forge another deal (!) post exploitation. How astonishingly - hilariously, even - arrogant. They tried to peddle "credit" (under the table deals for the company to have access to that market) in exchange for assistance with the technology. "Wishful non-thinking", on their government's part.
Engineers for U.S. government and military contractors, battle a sophisticated hacking force originating from China, nearly every day at work. It's the way the day starts. It's just outrageous. I don't know how China expects they will continually be able to get away with this and how anyone or any country, with any remote sense of justice and self-respect, would justify it. They are taking some seriously, big risks and many of them appear to have been major overshoots on China's part. The cost of their scheming has gotten higher. And a little bird in NY finance has made it clear that vast swathes of outpriced housing have been built on unstable ground, land that wasn't properly stabilized to withstand shifting soil and erosion, as more and more of the farmland near waterways becomes unworkable, due to major soil pollution. I'm getting the same from undercover environmental managers travelling through the country. But Niall's sources say everything is totally, peachy keen, so I suppose we need to go with his take on all of this.
I don't know why media outlets, in The Western World, are doing The CCP's hush work for them. These things need to be talked about, if only for the safety of their people. Too many are gingerly dancing around the elephant in the room. But I'm glad that Niall, at least, has so much confidence in the least transparent market on Earth.
They get away with it because principals always lose in the end to the cash pulling strings. African joe sixpacks are getting shafted by China, but the deals keep coming. The Libyans appear to be making deals with China, bygones be bygones, and just watch, once Assad is strung up by the rebels and a new government runs Syria, they will too.
You are one of the few that has a clue on here. This behavior of stealing and manipulating trade has to stop. I think the natural Capitolism forces of China's economy and workers will slow the economy dowm and maybe we'll have a chanc eto bring many manufacturing jobs back to the US
I think you are spot on, as trade increases, labor prices will rise and commodity prices will skyrocket. A $15 trillion China means oil at $200/bbl which means US manufacturing on-shoring, not relocating because transportation costs are too high.
Jack, I think your conclusion is not based on fact, rather on propaganda talk points. Your statement is beyond ridicules and ignorant.
1. On following trade agreement, the US would always critical of China to gain own advantage no matter what. The matter of fact China's record on following trade agrement is extradanarily good, as some WTO official admitted. You have look at our own record and those of European (how we and EU subsidize farm, auto and airospace industry in low times).
2. On bullying other country? you must be kidding me. China does send one solder to abroad, beyond UN missions. At the same time we are waging open and secret war in at least 6 countries. In a dispute with another country, we sent out aircraft carriers and B-52, China send out fishery patrol boat when its fishermen were threatened by neighbor's war ships. Counties use the military strength to protect their interest. But just look at the map of China over last 200 years, it hasn't expended, rather it got smaller. Then look at the map of yours. China does not export ideology or poverty, has no interest to establish colonies or military base on foreign land. So what is exact are they threatening?
I think the problem is that many people in the west view China as a threat because they perceive the country being a competing model. It is really unfortunate but probably unavoidable. I hope we should look at mirror for problems.
Excellent comments.
So funny calling those comments as "excellent".
Typical muslims all mouth, absolutely no facts
The eurozone economic problems are what have been holding back the US economy for the past six months, and without those problems Obama would be 10 points ahead of Romney instead of even.
China is a bunch of bubbles ready to pop - the real estate bubble, the infrastructure bubble, the pollution bubble, the currency issue bubble, the growth of US manufacturing bubble, the Chinese demand for freedom bubble
&&& The US debt, the military industrial complex, welfare state, ect... aren't bubble waiting to be popped in the US? It's a matter of time the US declares that its backrupted...And most of the funding went to the military, waste of money.
Never mind about the Chinese bubbles, you should worry about the fact that you might have to zuck some Chinese' kwoks for a living.
Although you probably should be doing that to the US now. Didn't Seal snipers save one of your ship's and it's Captain?
Aside from lowering taxes on the wealthy and not lowering U.S. military spending, what are Romney's economic policies? How does he propose to balance the deficit?
quit spending money - take away and lesson gov't road blocks to free enterprise - lower taxes ON EVERYONE - that would be just a start
LOWER TAXES FOR EVERYONE ?? NOT EVERYONE. THOSE MAKING OVER $ 150,000 SHOULD PAY 39 % IN TAXES UNTIL THE DEBT IS PAID IN FULL. THAN WE CAN LOWER THE TAXES FOR EVERYONE.
OUTSOURCING OF OUR JOBS TO CHINA IS AMERICA # 1 KILLER OF OUR ECONOMY. JOBS IS THE GASOLINE OF THE ECONOMY...AMERICA ECONOMY IS GOING NO WHERE UNTIL WE STOP OUTSOURCING THE JOBS.
$150K should pay a 39% Federal Income tax! Are you out of your mind! People making $150K are what you call HENRI's. High Earners Never Rich.
A 39% effective income tax rate for people in that income bracket is ludicrous. Most people earning that kind of money live in states that already have high state income and property taxes. They should really focus on people earning upwards of $350,000.00.
How does the Republican nominee propose to balance the deficit?
Romney talks real tough about China, but what does he plan to do?
Obama actually has taken a very hardline on trade with China and filed many trade complaints.
Does Romney want a trade war with China?
Real trade wars only happen when the relationship is more equel. The US holds most of the cards in the trade with China because the trade is one sided with the US importing and very little export to china. In Northern Europe every voter knows what the trade balance means and if it negative the goverment will loose the next election. That is why the economy is still fairly good in Northern Europe.
What exactly has Obama accomplished over the last 4 years except antagonize and provoke China in a time when the 2 countries should be working together to alleviate the world recession?
American people are no longer peacefull . Their war mongering is threatening the peace and stability . China , it is developing itself , it is the vice ? You will hate me because I am trying to improve my condition ?
Criticism is not "hate", Lee. There will always be a few extreme voices - those always smarting for a fight - but most people have no desire to see anyone hurt. Corruption, reckless blustering, these things hurt everyone. The USA has certainly had her share of both and that's why we require honest criticism, too. Ignoring problems will not make them go away.
Jonquil, the way you zuck your uncle's limply kwok is for peace and for love I suppose?
are you a muslim and how do you define peace? in my many years i have SEEN america take alot of undeserved flack from our friends - americans are really a laid back folk - i don't know where you are coming from - unless you actually believe the stuff you read on cnn and it's ilk
Your comments on Sunday, July 22. Many graduates cannot find jobs because of the economy. The president has spent trillions of dollars and it's no wonder that the economy was temporarily saved. If I could be given a million dollars my economy would be wonderful. Throw enough printed money at something and it will be good temporarily. It still comes down to the economy to solve our problems. When people have enough money to spend and buy things above their obligations. We spend lots of money on education and many kids K-12 can't read well and do not know hoe add and subtract. Throwing money at things is not the answer. The answer is families being families, with good moral and work habits.
Time to pass the baton to China for world leadership. Rest have tried and failed. China is the only hope left.
Pass the baton to China?!?!?!? Bwahahaha! China is backwards and dysfunctional. Its government is one of the most opaque anywhere. They can't even deliver basic services to its citizens. I have spent much time in China, and they are far from ready to take on such a role. China is a lie propped up by false economic statistics, a (mal)investment bubble, and an illegitimate regime that fails to respect even the most basic of its citizens rights. Its all laughable. They even censor the INTERNET? This is the most important new development for humankind in a LONG! LONG TIME. China censoring the internet is not unlike if Britain had banned the steam engine, or if America had banned the automobile. China is the country the future........and always will be!!!! (That means never will be for all you playing along at home).
Uhhh.... you sound really dumb and have never been outside of your state. What is wall street then? I'd say that's the biggest ponzi scheme of all, so shut your trap because you got bigger problems in your own back yard, internet troll!
Maybe. But we are far ahead of China in the stationing of military forces around the world. Don't remember now how many countries we have stationed our miliary forces in, but it is a good sized number, dwarfing China's military forces satiioned outside China.
poor hope
I agree. The rest (US, EU, Nato et al) have failed miserably and their time is up. The world is divided, poverty is rampant, genocides are prevalent, lawlessness is on the up and up, economic doom is on the horizon and on and on and on. China, we welcome you as our leader !!!
Are you nuts, i'll bet you're not even American.
THE RISE OF CHINA IS DUE TO U.S. CORPORATIONS DOING BUSINESS IN CHINA. IF WE SOME HOW COULD BRING BACK THOSE FACTORIES TO THE U.S. ?? CHINA WILL SUFFER BIG TIME.
China's taking over world leadership is already happening. China has arrived
They will have no leaderswhip role. Do you want a communist world leader? It won't happen.
That's a very scary proposition. Maybe, when the moon is more habitable. Thank you. Good try, thou.
I am all for China to take the leadership role.
The real Patrick is an intelligent man who would never make nonsensical statements of this kind.
Stop harassing him.
By taking his name, it does not make you as smart as him. It just shows you to be an ignoramus with a small picker.
RISE OF CHINA ???? BLAME AMERICAN GREEDY CORPORATIONS FOR MAKING CHINA A SUPER ECONOMIC -MILITARY POWER.
CHINA–RUSSIA HATE AMERICA BIG TIME, BUT WE KEEP HELPING THEM.
They are much more focused on their own affairs than you think. Their own things come first: so they do not spend as much time hating somebody else as you do. Remember: their politicians do not have to use the international policy as a significant factor in their election campaigns, they do not have to be as aggressive for voters to like them! US is more like a nuisance rather than an obstacle: if dealing with real issues rather than some "world domination business"... So you can have it: can have it all if you are still hungry for it!
lady...you don't have a clue!
Exactly right...erosion of corporate and bank regulation that started during the Reagan era have decimated our country. Outsource everything off-shore to maximize profit, debunk and destroy employee barganing power, and pay-off our congressmen and women to turn the other way as they do it. Our country has become possibly the greediest and perhaps the most corrupt on the planet. The mega-weathy control our country while putting the burden on the middle class. All that and our Supreme court has made it 100% legal for corporate america to control the outcomes of our national, state and local elections through the use of super-pacts. This country is going down the tubes fast...and our government has us duped into a two party rivalry that blames the other side while neither side does anything to fix the problems.
If China's success is limited to manufacturing, without a shift to innovation/R & D, then China's progress will indeed reach a limit beyond which it can not go. Thus far, China seems to have trouble innovating new ideas, because its workforce is used to following orders and not creating something from nothing.
Keep thinking happy thoughts!
You must be one of those creative and innovative American kwok zucking kwok zuckers. Let's see what new way of kwok zucking you've come up.
But dont forget, alot of the manufacturing is done on "orders" and the orders come from places like the USA that want things manufactured.
Just the other night, I was watching the show, "shark tank" and one of the sharks spoke happily how he would get the products made in china and improve his profit
Just the other night, I, also, was watching Shark Tank and the mention of China was tantamount to a joke.
It would be helpful for US-China relations if the US stopped arming Taiwan.
China is not seeking hegemony despite its territorial claims over stolen territory, but the west love to demonize China by using the media and especially gullible Hollywood.
Is China's rise invitable? Absoluely.
as China's workers demand more money and better working conditios as our own iunions have here you will see the cost of doing business in China increase therefore keeping and returning jobs back to the US or elseware.. It's just the nature of capitalism.
It is also inevitable that as China's workers demand more money and better working conditios as our own iunions have here you will see the cost of doing business in China increase therefore keeping and returning jobs back to the US or elseware.. It's just the nature of capitalism.
Great points indeed...Almost like a self correcting system.
Can you imagine, workers wanting protection and legalization.
Why can't they be like Iran, Iraq, China, Taiwan,... and just work for nothing and live in hovels?
You just don't get it do you.
China also has more students coming to this country to study our tech than any other nation. They are robbing us and we bow.
You are right Jack, but too late. I have been saying the same things for about 37 years. That is since Nixon went to China and made detente. The Chinese do not have a say in their system. They are and have been slaves for thousands of years. So they will not get raises in wages from the same economic pressures as we used to. Their system is planned for a long term, where ours is not. The only way to stop them is to tax the blazes out of every thing that is imported from overseas. But that will not happen either since the Chinese buy our representatives like every corporation. Companies only care about profits, and if they can make money by outsourcing our jobs, they will. Problem is, we will become so poor from lack of work that we can't buy their products. We will become them (the Chinese).
The rise in economic power of communist China is unavoidable within my lifetime. Unless the ruling and greedy leaders slow things down and not trying to "take over" it's other neighbors in the region and not trying to steal their resources such as oil/gas in the S. China sea or dominate their neighbors' livelihood. Slowly but surely if the world won't take notice, communist China is choking off Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos...which depends on the Mekong river for their survival. The commies began building dams in the name of needing more electric power for its doestic growth. Also these leaders stop dreaming/thinking about the old days-before the U.S. was created and Europeans were ruled by fifedom-then the communist China was the major power in China/Asia.
Unfortunately after 1000 years of struggle the Vietnamese was able to break this strangle hold in Asia. This might happen again if history repeats. I'm sure communist Vietnam is pretty ticked off when communist China used its naval forces to take over the Paracel islands and simply stole the oil/gas producing offshore platforms!
Such aggressive acts of piracy by China ill eventually re-unite the S.E. Asian countries to retaliate against the aggressor!
@Louisp, South-East-Asia never ever will be united as one. South East Asia is more like the Meditteranean Region. I.E. Burma, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand are Indianized states, Vietnam, and Singapore are Sino states, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei are Middle East Muslim states, and Philippines is more like Spain or Portugal. The people of South East Asia are mixed race i.e. Middle Eastern, Indians, Chineses, Americans, and Europeans. If the USA, or Europe will not pay attention to them. They will be colonied by China soon.
Chinese national firm just bought a major Canadian gas company for $15+ billion. Not good.
Don't forget Nixon went to China, China did not come to us. Says it all. Doesn't it?
Nixon was farsighted despite all his shortcomings.
China WILL NOT overtake the U.S. economy in 2016. The IMF refers to purchase parity, which is a completely different way to measure GDP. Either the author did not write Ferguson's full answer or someone was being very misleading during the question/ answer above. Also, China has a huge amount of problems to deal with, including its own hegemony. This is a nation that has a huge portion of the population that is dirt poor, and will always be. They also have an aging population that future workers will not be able to support. If the economy slows quicker then expected, or at some point contracts, then the government could easily fall to pieces. They have a very delicate situation in the East.
All this an not to mention the two Canadian oil companies that China wants to either own or be a major owner in (Nexxen bid for over $15 billion and $1.5 Billion for owning close to 50% of Talisman Energy ). The Nexen deal if approved, would be the biggest energy company takeover yet. America has had opportunities, which would have helped both countries, but chose to oppose the pipeline.
I reasd these comments and see that this country is full of traitors. You all should be deported or shot.
And whois a naughty boy! Did your parents tell you not to interfere when adults were talking! Go to your room now!
Andrey – You think yourself so powerful because we can't see that you, yourself, are a tiny little speck who is reduced to calling people names.
He is delusional.. China rose very rapidly for only one reason.. cheap labor. Now that their labor rates are rising, and ours falling, it is only a matter of time, that the jobs move back closer to home.. especially with rise in gas prices.
In 20 years chinese workers will be complaining about outsourcing to vietnam.
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China may be on the rise but it will not match the U.S. China is completely dependent upon the U.S. When we had our recent recession, China lost 70,000 factories and over 10 million people had to go back to subsistence farming. China had to train people how to farm again just so they could live. While China may rise above many others it will always be less than the U.S. because of the intertwined economies with the U.S. being the dominant one.
You'd be shocked to learn how dependent american companies are on chinese consumers.
it goes vise versa, but the difference is, were chinas second largest importer if im not mistaken behind the continent of europe..china is our third biggest partner for exporting to behind canada and mexico ifim also not mistaken, so who depends more on who..right
"But this isn’t something that is just about to collapse, and those that think there’s a China implosion just around the corner are engaging in wishful non-thinking. It’s not going to crash. It may slow, but it’s not going to implode"
I like how the author suggests that the succession of china as the world superpower is very likely, but could actually not happen, but states that china imploding is just NOT going to happen. Really? The worlds largest communist nation has NO chance of crumbling within its own walls? I'm just saying theres a chance of that, I wouldn't be so arrogant to say theress NO chance.
The US have already imploded with arrogance and ignorance and ill wishers, but karma will get people like you ^.^
A week ago they were falling – which is it?
China has enough nukes to shower at every NATO nation, any CIA like sabotage of its nation, as the CIA have done in South America and Africa in unlikely.....such idea is laughable as Chinese are way smarter than that.....
Long live China....now Africa has to get its own set of Mugabes...Africa should clone Mugabe for every country...
Saying "long live china" is like saying long live totalitarianism. You like totalitarian societies?
China does seem bent on a slow conquest of the world. Tibet, the South China Sea, the Uyghur people.
To the extent they kill internal dissent they will fail and fall into revolution.
Economically, they discourage innovation and free thinking of most any sort, so that will keep them behind the progressive powers of the West on that front.
You definitely sound like one of those American kwok heads who have zucked his uncle's limply kwok one time too many and swallowed one mouthful too much. Aren't you full of kum already?
This shift is caused by investment dollars of American corporations. Lets kick them out and call them Chinese. That should fix the issue quickly.
We are asking ourselves the wrong question. The real question is "is Americas continued decline Inevitable?" We have an increasingly distorted view of ourselves, our place and our future in the world order. Awareness is always the first step toward a solution and we have yet to take it!
China has been growing leaps and bounds over the U.S. and others because it has been cutting corners and has not had to live up to the consumer, environmental protections other countries have. Sooner or later this is going to catch up with them just like Chernobyl caught up with the Ex-Soviet Union. Without consumer and environmental protections at some point Murphy's law will apply. Something, somewhere is going to go wrong. It could be nuclear, it could be their banking system, it could be contamination of water. Without a good checks and balances sytem, things will go wrong sooner or later.
americans will soon be ocean hoping to work in china.
or, maybe, muslims will beg for work visas to China so that they can work the fields, factories, or as slave labour ...
If China stays the way Hu Jintao wants it, China will never become a real world power. A country that lacks social freedom is just not going to be creative, and without inventions, China is just a super sized Saudi Arabia, with no greater contribution to the world other than an endless labor force.
Ummm, if you don't now the number of patents in China is third in the world...So you're a skeptic who's also delusional!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_patents
Why are we ignoring China's recent economic hardships? While its economy has expanded astronomically in the past half-century, China is not immune to decreases in external demand from some of its biggest trading partners (the U.S. and Europe). Minxin Pei, Professor of Government at Claremont Mckenna, has written about the fallacy of China's certain and imminent rise to economic dominance, citing specifically that, "The Chinese bubble – as much an intellectual and political bubble as an economic one – has burst. As China’s economic deceleration exposes its structural vulnerabilities and flawed policies, the much-hyped notion of 'Chinese exceptionalism' is proving to be nothing but a delusion." Read why Pei feels China is no longer the invincible economic machine it was once thought to be: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-china-can-t-adjust
China growth and threath can be stop asap, if Americans and American companies moved their producction out of China ,do not grant the USA preference un trade and people refuse to buy the cheap quality of products they sell us.
The USA helped on their grow. I do not buy nothing mad in China.
Yes I agree with Bob, don't buy cheap merchandise from China, we will buy things cost $99 instead of $0.99 to help our country growth.
That's .99cents in China's pocket or 99.00 dollars in our economy. Buy American, you may pay a little more but you get waht you pay for. If you've bought Chinese products you must know how cheaply they are made.
China passing the USA in GDP in 4 years is based on "purchasing power" so it treats a 50 cent Chinese Big Mac the same as a $4 American Big Mac. That's fair enough but it also treats plowing fields with Chinese Water Buffalos like plowing with Tractors in the USA. In REAL GDP, China won't even be at HALF the USA in 4 years. Additionally, as Chinese income rises, Chinese costs will rise.
Lets break this down, China all by itself has a call option on USA debt. Thats called absolute power. Aside from years of controlled currency, this will eventually wither the dollars value demanding more dollars for the value. Unfortunately the US can not undue this predicament, hence the tough words from politicians. Since the majority of US wealth historically is simply faith in paper assets, the Chinese have scored a trump card in demanding a growing share of that wealth, its happening as you read.
China will eventually bury the West in economic power. The west has tied it's hands with regulation and political correctness. China's middle class continues to expand at a ever increasing rate while the middle class in the west stagnates. Once there people can afford the products they create the west will lose importance. When China makes the decision to do something it is done, period. In the west, they spend 15 years doing environmental impact reviews and then another decade fighting it in the courts.
If China's economy is anything like the crap they manufacture, it will fall apart in no time.
China needs to come out and renounce Communism. It has been a lie and it is doing more damage than good. If you tell the business people in the country: we let you run for a while but will get you in the end. What would they do? They skim as much money as quickly as they can, park their money outside, then immigrate.
Has Zakaria said anything new?
Boring-
Mariah Carey is a new IDOL Judge Yippee!! Now that's news...
China and India are only rising because of their cheap labor markets. Once enough people have had the taste of middle class, they're going to want more than can they provide while sustaining wage disparity with the West. We could produce the same crap for the same terrible wages if our people didn't feel the need to live in nuclear households, own cars for each family member, have cell phones and broadband subscriptions, eat meat with every meal and have all the other luxuries of the west. If Africa could ever get organized under a coherent economic leadership, they could probably replace China once China gets too greedy.
China is using capitalistic principals to buy up rights to minerals and resources that are scarce in China. That means a cooresponding increas in sea lift capacity and the military to protect it. China is rising becasue Europe and the US are fixated with the Islamic problem. INdia will be increasing it's presence over the next 10 years or so and watch out for Brazil to make a move to control more of South and Central america through investment and treaty. The West isn't dead, it's just rapidly sliding into irrelavenece as other than a market.
There will always be an upper class feeling about Europe and the US vs China and India. The East has the largest populations and the majority of those people live in extreme poverty. Essentially many of them are slaves. First, how many countries want to copy their success? none,they would rather exploit those poor workers in those countries instead. Second, how long will those workers go along with being exploited like that? It's inevitable they will want more. It's a difficult sell to poor people that their country is great and rising when they can only see a few reaping the benefits. Third, how long will these rich few tolerate being controlled by a communist government with all their demands and control? For the most part, most welcome China and India doing well and are not threatened by it. They are very greedy and have their own issues just like other countries. The West and East and will be viewed as countries with different opportunities not one is better than the other.
The US spends too much on its military. Time for the rest of our allies to pay for the own defenses.
China will eventually be torn apart from within. Its government structure is not sustainable. People there are starting to understand the unfairness with the social structure.
I agree with the cheap labor comment. China 'rose' for two reasons - cheap labor and unfair trade practices that the US allowed to continue including currency manipulation. Yes, China has 1.3 billion people - but that is comparible to the populatiosn of India, Philipines and Indonesia - which is now far cheaper labor costs. So I'm not sure China's continued rise is inevitable. Also too they still have a vast poor population that has not seen the benefits of economic growth like the more properious region - and china is not known for charity - so these masses may one day rise up and then central governement will have some serious problems.
No, when the US economy finally collapses it'll drag them and the rest of the world down too.
Boycott china's products..............................
The only way now is to boycott as many chinese products as possible, or attack them before it is too late.
One of the great things about running a website with a truly global reach is that readers send me material which is nothing less than outrageous. So I had to laugh when I found in my inbox an animation of two bears discussing the hopelessly idiotic approach the US government has taken towards its trade with China over the past two decades.
America gave away 25 million jobs, got nothing in return, with the end result that our standard of living is falling, while China’s is rising. The Chinese made this easy by devaluing their currency 50%, thus giving their exporters an unassailable price advantage. This has enabled the Middle Kingdom to buy an increasingly larger part of the US every year at knock down prices.
The US could address this imbalance at anytime through the imposition of punitive import duties and forcing a revaluation of the Chinese Yuan. But any attempts to do so are fought off by well-financed libertarian pro business elements spouting the principals of free trade. So China laughs all the way to the bank, and the unemployment rate here ratchets ever skyward.
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
You can unblock sites and surf anonymously in China using http://www.mastervpn.info
Guys, let's face it. China is the new superpower. All, step aside and let the new leader emrge. It is inevitable. The shift is in process. Can you feel it?
Well, that would definitely ensure that China develop... radiation sickness.
China's far more likely to go after Africa first. your fellow Muslims are going to be first in the firing line. Somalia can't even be described as 3rd World or Medieval, it's far below that and is sitting in a pretty strategically attractive part of the world. The Chinese will prob' annihilate that coastal region in a matter of days then set up a Chinese port city which is in a position to control oil supply from the Middle East.
This will only be the begining of their colonisation of Africa. The rest of the Muslim Africans will prob' take the bate and rise up to fight the Chinese infidels and will also be instantly wiped out. i shouldn't imagine it will take the Chinese long to get a total lockdown on the continent.
the Chinese are not going to go after London or America before they go after the Islamic minion states. so continue to dream on dear, China bombing London is not going to happen anytime soon dearey.
Both of you don't really have a clue due you (Saeed and Sarah)? Currently China is more concerned with having a regional hegemony first. They have 1 aircraft carrier and while they do have significant land-to-ship missile systems that had great results during development, that isn't exactly a way to push power outside their typical sectors of influence. They are for the near to medium future content to continue to aggravate their neighbors and force themselves into the premiere rare earths producer and an economic powerhouse. Which is why the South China Sea is where the most likely conflict is to occur, not Britain nor Africa.
If China can grab those areas where most rare earths are it will continue to have a huge say in global politics without any need to pursue world-wide hegemony. Every technologically advanced country needs these to further develop so they will be at the whim of China until they can (if possible) produce their own.
Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines are having tons of issues right now and have all requested assistance with this due to China's territorial water claims. Not to mention, Kashmir-Jammu area is also claimed by Pakistan, India, and China (all 3 nuclear states); then there's also Taiwan. But good job coming up with preposterous claims that have a virtual zero chance of happening. You guys should be B movie writers, maybe you could write Anaconda 12 or something?
spot on
dude China's not gonna colonise Africa. China and Africa have both experienced what colonialism can do and both hate it when multiple European countries "octopus-arm" into their nations' affairs.