By Brian P. Klein, Special to CNN
Editor’s note: Brian P. Klein is an economic consultant and former U.S. diplomat. The views expressed are his own.
Disney characters dancing on stage, women wearing short skirts, and a country's new leader making speeches, smiling, and glad-handing military officers. In most places around the world, that’s nothing unusual. But for North Korea, it marks a sea change in image if not quite reality.
Political transition in Pyongyang has reached its apex with every major title bestowed on Kim Jong Un from head of the military to party boss. Despite concerns over a dynastic handover to the young and untested leader, purportedly just shy of 30 and apparently married, the regime didn’t collapse. And in a highly unusual show of openness this past April, foreign journalists were allowed to cover a rocket launch that ultimately crashed soon after take off. State media even reported the failure.
The new Kim isn’t just continuing the family business of running a country. He’s a significant generational change, intended or not. And change is coming one position at a time among the septuagenarian leaders that guided his father into decades of isolation and economic stagnation. Ri Yong Ho – the former head of the 1.2 million soldier army, who fought alongside Kim’s grandfather – is out, while General Hyon Yong Chol rises to Vice Marshal. More changes are likely as Kim moves supporters closer to his inner circle. Indeed, Reuters has suggested as many as 20 replacements have already been made.
Impetus for change is accelerating along with the world outside North Korea. A dramatically different regional and international environment now exists from the time Kim Jong Il took over in 1994. Gaze across the Yalu river to the north and the Chinese city of Dandong, with its high rises, traffic-filled roads and store shelves full of goods stands in stark contrast to the North Korean city of Sinuiju. The colored light show at “Friendship Bridge” must sting locals a mile away, where the city is shrouded in darkness. South Korea, too, blazes with economic activity and wealth, signs of which either float over with activists’ balloon diplomacy (parcels of money, CDs, and snack foods drifting in a low-tech wave over the demilitarized zone) or smuggled across the border with China.
The global club of isolated states, meanwhile, has shrunk considerably, with many either opening or crumbling. Myanmar’s military leaders have decided that reform is a much better option than continuing as a pariah state. Widespread sanctions have been lifted and tremendous new wealth is in the offing. Don’t expect any major nuclear construction projects or missile technology transfers from North Korea (a major hard currency earner) in the future. Cuba, too, has also taken tentative steps at economic reform without any backlash against the Castros. Quite to the contrary – they’ve been credited for the recent improvements, if not decades of stagnation.
North Korea’s propaganda machine can easily spin change, and the third Kim dynasty will be seen making history, not destroying his father’s legacy. But Kim Jong Un may also see quite clearly that relying on China won’t ensure his country’s future growth or development. While the rest of the world has made a mint on trading with the world’s second largest economy, selling everything from raw materials to lightly manufactured goods, North Korea remains lost in a backwater. Even among its regional peers, Pyongyang lags decades behind. Wander the streets of nearby Hanoi and a wave of mopeds and cars signal new wealth and an emerging Vietnamese middle class. North Korea’s streets are ornamented by crisply suited traffic guards with very little to do. None of these changes are likely lost on Kim.
Gone too are the days of winning concessions from the outside world with belligerence. Negotiations, concessions for food aid or South Korean investment don’t flow from missile tests anymore. A rocket launch of old could spark a round or two of shuttle diplomacy between Washington, Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul with aid packages in tow. These days, its a few brief television moments and then nothing but a long silence to follow.
North Korea’s first attempt at engagement since the elder Kim’s death had actually achieved some cautious results. There was a glimmer of hope for renewing Six Party Talks, IAEA inspectors returning and a fresh start on verifiable denuclearization. What failed this time wasn’t only a rocket launch, but the North Korean military’s outdated strategy of flexing its offensive muscles.
Still, the threat of wider conflict or all out war remains remote. A military confrontation between North and South Korea would result in mutual destruction. Old school artillery does the devastating work particularly well. Even after the height of 2010 tensions, with alleged North Korean attacks on South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island and the sinking of a naval ship off the coast with dozens of lives lost, the joint North-South Kaesong Industrial Complex manufacturing zone near the border remained in operation. Neither side was apparently willing to end the project, which gives the North hard currency and the South a tentative influence on its neighbor.
Minor changes aside, it’s still far too early to tell whether Kim will chart a new defense and economic policy course. The historical and defense-related issues on the Korean peninsula make for a unique environment with little resemblance to the Arab Spring. Mickey Mouse, with all his pluck and candor, does not a Glasnost make.
Still, incremental opening is important. Analysts have been far too preoccupied over the last thirty years with collapse scenarios and prospects for unification along the lines of East and West Germany. All the while, the regime has survived famines, sanctions, the loss of major donor countries and two major leadership transitions. None of these damaged the Kim family’s grip on power, and as a nearly 30-something-year-old in charge, Kim Jong Un may be around for a long, long time.
As Kim begins to make his mark on domestic and international affairs he should take away the fact that his father’s old shoes don’t fit. As a Korean proverb goes “too many carpenters knock over the house.” A policy informed less by the antiquated rattlings of a Cold War generation and more by the world around him might actually bring about the respect and change the new Mr. Kim might want – and, more importantly, a brighter future for the impoverished North Korean people.
For the U.S., this tentative opening provides an opportune moment to re-engage with North Korea, but with a decidedly different approach. Rather than aiming for high policy with nuclear disarmament front and center, a more nuanced approach would lead to short-term tangible results. Back in 2008, the New York Philharmonic made a historic visit to Pyongyang and received a reserved, but warm reception. It was an opportunity to showcase the United States as non-enemy to a population fed on a steady stream of anti-American propaganda.
The U.S. should now return the favor and invite North Korean musicians to New York. Such a basic overture is neither reward nor acceptance of North Korea’s brutal human rights record, its brazen attacks on South Korean territory, or years of flaunting U.N. resolutions. It is a cautious, pragmatic step, nothing more. Ping-pong thawed U.S.-China Cold War enmity forty years ago. Perhaps a concerto or even a bit of jazz will do the trick this time around.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Only if Lil Dong Un farts!!! Hahahahahahaahahahahahhaa
I bet those are some nasty farts.
On top of that ,
imagine those f@rts being Asian f@rts.
Thats gotta be some of the worst smells .
Bwa hahaha
If the US and North Korea ever get in a clapping war, it could end really badly for us I'm afraid.
I think we'd win because I'm sure we have more people here with the clap than they have
I don't know but he'd sure be a dream to any singer-songwriter. He's always clapping!!!
North Korea can POUND SAND!
They can pound anything they want now because little nut boy has his finger on the trigger of a nuke.
Invite their musicians??/ ahahahah Like North Korea would allow it!
The DPRK would welcome just such an invitation; we should test how far their intentions go.
Inviteing their musicians sure why not it will be super funny when half of them defect
oh yeah he is cute
Why is he so fat while all of his "loyal subjects" are starving to death?
Once crazy, always crazy. I don't see any significant changes in our lifetime.
what an idiotic article. this is what serves as journalism these days (sigh). china would never tolerate its own country divided, but are willing to screw every korean who naturally want reunification.
Do they really?? I wonder if they do?? It just shows how sick China is they force Tibet, taiwan etc to be their province but dont care about North Karea.. If its true it just shows how sick the world is we live in.
CNN do you really think the hatred racism and bigotry expressed in these blogs adds value to your news orginization. YOu used to beso much better than this!
The points made in this are definitely on point. As someone who has been to North Korea three times(most recently last month), I could see that the opportunity for improving relations between the United States and North Korea does exist. There has been changes, is somewhat subtle, since my first trip in 2009. There is more traffic in Pyongyang. There are more people on the street at all times of the day. The subway cars can get a little crowded. And there is a generally less somber atmosphere when speaking with or observing the people with who I came into contact. These are the people living in better conditions that others in the country. By openning up the country, all North Koreans could benefit from more interaction with the outside world. The idea of a musical or performing arts "ping-pong" diplomacy IS something to consider. Also, on the North Korean side, maybe Kim Jong Un should come to New York to the openning of the United Nations General Assembly in September as a way of introducing himself to the rest of the world. On the US side, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton should consider making a trip to Pyongyang before she leaves office. In the current environment, a little personal diplomacy coould go a long way.
How do you get into North Korea?.I would love to visit. I think it would be extremely intresting, because North Korea is a very mysterious place. No one really know what things are like in the inside
The republicans would demand that we get permission from the Chinese before we'd ever use nukes.
You're an idiot, Lance.
Lance has no idea how ignorant he looks. He is sooooo stupid he thinks we are stupid like him or her. Stupid comes in all sizes and color.
Is CNN serious? This Un guy is nothing more than a creepy coconut who hasn't fallen very far from the cuckoo tree that spawned his looney tunes father and his ca ca cabesa grandfather.
Reblogged this on MOYONI MWA MWAFRIKA and commented:
Right or wrong, good or bad, true or false, you be the judge, North Korea is going the South way..
You mean things can change for the better without ever having to fight a war? You mean diplomacy works? You mean our great relationship with Vietnam happened in peace and not in war? Wow, what a revelation. Maybe as confirmation, whenever the USA has premptively CHOSEN to go to war, we have LOST!!!
Yet, we want to elect the draft dodger Romney to president when he has explicitly said he would bomb Israel. Yet we call Ron Paul's foreign policy "kooky" because he likes diplomacy and he wants to shut down foreign bases we simply just can not afford?
American voters are easily manipulated and really quite stupid.
I meant Bomb Iran. It is obvious he LOVES Israel that he would sacrifice other peoples sons to fight his percieved notion that there should be a holy war.
There is no telling what Romney loves (other than money). He is just a typical political wh ore that will say anything to get elected. And the American people keep electing people like this (which is why they keep doing it).
So let's see-Romney is a draft dodger and Barack Obama and Joe Biden served with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and Barney Fife I mean Frank in the Marines? LOL "When the US has gone to war pre-emptively"-I don't recall that happening Princess. "you mean diplomacy works"? Not here on Earth when you have bad guys. In fact it hasn't worked once in this past century. How'd that Diplomacy thing work with Hitler? How about Saddam Hussein? How's that Diplomacy you know that genius Obama -the Earth's smartest man who doesn't know anything and was raised by Communists and his "i will speak to Iran with no preconditions" thing working out? How about Qadafi? Without repercussions you can talk to the tyrants of the world all you want Princess in the end you are flapping your gums and wasting your breath. Now, "let's have a talk and there are some changes to be made or the change that will be made is that you, your fellow tyrants and family will be dead"-now that you can have some success with....
Edward, anyone who actually thinks Ron Paul is qualified to lead this country automatically loses the right to call anyone else stupid. You are seating at the absolute bottom of the scale. Just saying,
.
Well said.
Now go tell Syria, Lybia, Egypt, Tunisia, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq...
North Korea and China have nothing to fear from Comrade Obama and his Commie administration. Birds of a feather you know.
but we all have so much to fear from your inbred ignorance. Now, get back to the french fry counter at macdonalds before the boss catches you using his computer again, fires you, and the lady from the special workshop has to come down and beg for your job back again, so that you can at least help support all of the children you have fathered with your sister. Otherwise, we're all gonna come to alabama and tip over your trailer.
That was so good.
I printed it and framed it.
when did the mobile home park get internet access?
That makes sense!
Nixon, the biggest commie of them all (joking), opened up relations with a real communist China in 1972. it was also the best foreign policy decision made that decade.
Heknowsitall- It must suck to be you and I can't imagine the three and a half years of living hell that you must have gone through since Obama became president. Do tell, which is more painful? Those inch long hemhorroids you got hanging off your ass or your hatred towards the president?
Don't worry James, just think about this: On the morning of November 3rd, when we are all celebrating Obama's re-election, Hewknowsitall will be somewhere choking on hate and the realization that he is totally out of touch, !!!
North Korea should expand on what its got. First, end the armistice and sign a peace treaty. Get on board with the civilized world. Secondly, ultilize its years of training its army by allowing soldiers to be hired out as mercenaries in places approved by the Unitied Nations.
King Jong-Un thinks feeding the North Koreans is an American responsibility.
This article is pathetic. Right after Kim Jong il died there were articles saying that people were arrested and put into North Korean concentration camps for "not mourning sincerely enough." http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/11/north-korea-reportedly-punishing-those-who-didnt-sufficiently-mourn-kim-jong-il/
They spent one billion dollars on a worthless missile instead of feeding their people. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/27/north-korea-hunger_n_1708524.html
They have been widely reported to have tortured their world cup soccer team after they lost their 3 matches.
http://dailycaller.com/2010/08/11/claims-north-korea-world-cup-squad-were-tortured-after-early-exit/
Yet you still want to play nice with people like that and invite them to New York? These are not reasonable people who can be coaxed into friendship and decent behavior through friendly invitations to America. Doing so would only send a message of mild acceptance of North Korean actions and solidify their beliefs that they are "a major player" in the world.
Minor optimism might be warranted. However, true good news would be ending their nuclear & missle progams and reducing the size of their military.
Hey Vaughn,
I agree, sort-of. I think North Korea needs a second-chance. The reason is since ousting these generals, Un may not have truly been in power. We need to see if human rights abuses continue even after Un kicked out most of the cabal.
I'm an American and I was in Pyongyang a couple of months ago. Friendly place, but rather poor. Plenty of non-stop nationalism. Still the place is on the cusp of a lot of changes. You can view my journal about the place at cyruskirkpatrick.com.
I have been gaining faith in this young man. His daddy would have told their people that the launch went perfectly as the Dear Leader wished, because he blew it up with his mind perfectly at the target height.
Yes! He wants to wrap his puffy lips around my shaftage and gain some goo!
This new younger leader will need to move slowly about moving North Korea into a more loving modern nation. Everyone there is so brain washed and full of fear if they do the wrong thing it will take the new leader decades to slowly acclimate his people into the modern age and one of peace and love. This new leader knows what the rest of the world is like and he is smart and more loving than his father was to his own people. I hope he can peacefully and lovingly lead his country to a healthy economy and love with his fellow neighbors. Lets all live together in peace.
Cautiously optimistic while retaining a healthy dose of skepticism.
The right wing wants us to believe the entire world hates us except for Israel. They lie to us constantly about a threat here and a threat there. That way they have an excuse to waste all our tax dollars on the military while cutting funds to education, healthcare, and infrastructure. Republicans will be the ruin of our country, not some foreign body.
kim jong un=kung fu panda
You reave my kid arone you lankee plicks! I know he goofy, but it was the best I could do! If I ruled the world, I make you awl pay for your insorence!
Now the old dudes left over from the war, pictured behind him, need to die off and things might get better.
Prediction: By the time the South Korea hosts the Winter Olympics in 2018, Korea (North and South) will again be one nation.
OK I guess despite what it says, comments are moderated. I've tried several times to post a thoughtful post, and it goes nowhere. And I can't even guess what's in my comment that's blocking its posting. Go Korea!
Yet that posted instantaneously.
OK this is crazy. This stuff all posts. But my post which actually has substance doesn't. I've shortened it down, checked for bad words, everything. It just won't post.
and this?
Just tried again. No warnings, anything. Just ignores my post.
I guess there's a "thoughtful debate" filter.
The reality in 1945 of US forces entering South Korea and rewarding Koreans who collaborated with the Jaapanese colonial oppressors, while marginalizing (putting it non-brutally) the patriotic anti-Jaapanese Korean underground–the very opposite of what happened in North Korea–is a turn of events which understandably created irreconcilable differences between the two sides.
But as the generations pass, Kim Jong Un presides over a people with fading memory of those old scars, and pragmatism and openness may finally have a chance to grow. The North and South remain separate; but they're soon going to realize that they've forgotten why they hate each other.
I agree. It is beyond me why the Koreans "hate" each other so much. I remember in the U.S. I sometimes asked the Koreans I met: Are you from the North, by chance. Their response was a hostile denial in each instance, as if being a North Korean was a death sentence, and as if my question was an insult to them ... They always wanted the Americans to know that they are from the South! But I never got it, and still don't get it! Aren't they the same ethnic people? It's time to stop this colossal nonsense. Brothers ought to be brothers, not "mortal enemies"!
Trying to reply, but there's a secret word in my post that won't allow me to post it again.
This board is kind of lame.
OK a piece at a time to see what's being blocked from posting:
Well, the hattred stemmed from how both sides were formed after WWII. ...
Ridiculous board. There are too many "secret words" which prevent posts from posting. "Jaapan" (spelled correctly) is one of them. There are many others. Screw it. This board sucks. What gives CNN?
Wow, that was it. The word "Jaapanese", (spelled correctly), is auto-banned from this thread. Spelled it wrong, it posted.
I guess they won't let you post the words Ja pan or Ja panese because they contain the word Ja p, which of course is deemed offensive. You would think that CNN's programmers would have fixed this by now – people have been complaining about it long enough.
I also guess that CNN's programmers must be re tarded or something.
Since Jung Un has spent time learning and living in a Euro environment of relative openness, the reclusive persona of North Korea is an oddity, and Jong Un knows this. N. Korea could have a very stable economy, and proof is living all around this country. Just looking at the physical landscape of this country, it's really beautiful, the million man army should become a civil engineering force that will give the country a mechanism that will create a standard of living equal to its neighbors. But it's just my opinion.
The rocket probably crashed soon after take off because China wanted it to crash! China had the technology to stabilize that rocket, but diddn't help the North Koreans. If that launch succeeded, China would have to deal with an emboldened North Korea, and on top of that, the satellite would have enabled the North to spy on China.
A not-so Dear Leader in the upper Korea would be nice for both domestic and international relations. Now, will the US allow for gradual shifts in Korean policies or push for something more rapid? Too much external pressure on a closed state can backfire into a double-down situation by the target nation. Those in the US who are not yet tired of starting wars like to keep their options open.
The simple fact is that after stringent gun laws the only people with guns will be the criminal element which will prey on all of us. The only thing that would have stopped the kook in Colorado was someone else in the audience who had a gun and could use it to protyect themselves and the others. Unfortunately because of the anti-gun laws in Aurora Co. there was no one who could protect themselves or others because they were disarmed.
He is a liberal and i have confidence in him and DPRK.
Baaaaaaaaaaaah, Baaaaaaaaaaaah, Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaah, Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaddy?
You mean China can hit all those places with just one Nuke. Wow! I didn't know thay had a nuke that could do that. If China ever attcked the US after we stopped laughing China would feel abot 2,000 nukes coming at them. i don't think China would take that chance.
Sure, pal...China will take out every major trading partner just to assist their worthless "ally" North Korea.
You do know the story of the golden goose, right?
Lol that would be the day. China does a lot of stupid things but they are smart enough to know that would be a horrible idea. take out all there major trade partners for what? N Korea it a buffer zone they like to keep it a buffer zone but i doudt they ever drop a nuke defending it
saeed u r stupid
That's the stupidest thing I've ever read. I wonder if your head hurts, if it is physically painful to be that dumb. Your little doomsday fantasies also mark you as a sick individual.
And we wonder where they get suicide bombers.
whoever this syeed mulim guy is, he needs therapy or deportation, one or the other. i would exect this from those horse's asses in china. this guy is just a freak.
Thankfully China and the US are run by more intelligent people than you. What an imbecile.
@ saeed: May the fleas of a thousand camels inhabit your beard.
The US only wants to fight countries that won't 'share the wealth'. Primarily because the huge multinational corporations have the best propaganda machines, and the lowest ethical standards.
Whats to fight? And before Chinas missiles are even close to their target we will take them out. Then our missiles will be in the air without China having a missile defense to take them out.
What good would that do for China? It would start a world ward and China would of just lost the One Trillion dollars we owe them. Also! What's that got to do with King Jong Un being apparently friendly?
Lol you idiot.And you think China will be living happy ever after.There will be 100s coming from all directions from the west.I hope one lands right on top of you when it happens and kills your inbreed family.
Comedy
yeah...that'd be a smart move because nobody they'd be bombing have nukes of their own
If any country launches a Nuke it would signal the end of life on earth.
You are just flapping your gums and you aren't in charge of anythng, so who cares what you say?
America landed a probe on the moon, then landed a manned mission close enough to walk to it and retrieve a camera. All before 1970.
China has launched a few missions to low earth orbit.
There is a wide gap in rocket and missile technology.
The US has a proven anti-ballistic missile system. China does not
The US has over 5,000 warheads. China has less than 250.
If China attacked there is a significant risk that their first strike would fail. Untested and poorly maintained rockets breaking up, many while still over China. Stage separation failures, second stage ignition failures and so on. Those that achieved a trajectory towards the US would have a very long trip allowing for several rounds of counter actions. Assuming that any missiles survive that, they sill face failure due to re-entry stress, warheads failing to detonate and after all that, missing targets by a long margin.
Long before a second strike could be launched, the US would destroy their ability to launch. Conventional cruise missiles with pinpoint accuracy would destroy most of their nuclear infrastructure on the ground. If the US might not even launch nukes, or use a few to take out the most hardened locations and to prove a willingness to use them.
China's primary military asset is a very large standing army. But, they are very limited in attacking anyone not sharing a land border with them.
China will not launch a first strike against the US, unless they are committing suicide.
you think China is strong enough to compete with US in nuke. she is now way behind. I know you are emotionally trying to jump on the bandwagon. but it is too early. better stick around with US for the time being. sorry.
Yeah, because the UK, Australia, and the USA have no warheads to retaliate with.
What are you smoking? China won't use it's warheads to protect North Korea anymore than the US would use it's warheads to protect Taiwan.
Read the book "The Seventh Decade" and be very afraid. 70 years with no viable policies concerning atomic weapons. The world has 27,000 and 200 could make a world wide mess. We persist in making Iran the villain while the rest of the world is armed to the teeth!
not with Obama in the White House. He would say that "we had it coming" and then bow to his Commie masters.
"armed to the teeth" because Iran is making bombs.
"Heknowsitall
not with Obama in the White House. He would say that "we had it coming" and then bow to his Commie masters."
Interesting revision of history. All the major concessions to communist china, especially sending them all our jobs, have been MADE BY CONSERVATIVE PRESIDENTS!
No more nukes.Dig deeper on Earthfiles.com for Atto tech.
MIRV – Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle
1 nuke – multiple warheads
With that said, the US and Europe does have something China may not see for at least several decades. Complex and powerful anti-missile systems both known and unknown. There is a reason why sovereign states are always more concerned about tactical than strategic weaponry – you can't shoot down a briefcase.
China "does a lot of stupid things"? Have you seen what this President has done? Until this imbecile in the White House is gone we are in no position to call anyone stupid.
Heknowsitall
What an Imbecilic post. Just venting?
Heknowsitall is just a troll. The troll tries to make you made by constantly taking stabs at Obama.
Ignore the troll and it will get bored and go away. Works every time.
Heknowsitall: : Yeah, what with getting us out of Iraq, overthrowing Libya without a single US soldier, setting a time-frame for pulling out of Afghanistan, killing 18 of the top 20 al Queda (including "the boss"), helping equip an entire army to fight Islamic radicals in Somalia, and sending special forces to hunt down Kony....the guy has been a complete incompetent on foreign policy!
In all seriousness, you are either a troll or the least informed mouth-breather posting on this forum.
you do sound like such a moron....
Heknowsitall
and you should know!
I said from the beginning that Kim Jong Un would breathe new life into North Korea. I have faith in him, that he will bring his country out of famine and poverty. I'm sure he wants to be invited to London, Paris, Washington etc. one day on state-visits.
j. von hettlingen: Replacing his grandfather's favorite general and anouncing his wedding are small steps in the right direction. "bring his country out of famine and poverty." & "invited to London, Paris, Washington etc. one day on state-visits" are a long, long way off and not in evidence. If you "said from the beginning" that it would take time, maybe. If he keeps this failed state from these fixes, by being only a little better than his dad & grandad, many Koreans will still suffer, and may still revolt.
What. are you kiddin me!!!