By Fareed Zakaria
I’ve been in London this week, and I couldn’t help but catch the Olympics bug. The Games are the ultimate meritocracy – or so it seems. But why do some countries win lots of medals? Do they have more talented people than others? We’ve spent some time looking at the data.
A few trends are clear.
Countries with large populations tend to do well. Logic suggests that the more people you have, the more likely you are to have a few excellent athletes. In the 2008 Beijing Games, China was the runaway leader with 51 gold medals. The United States came second, but it won the most medals overall with 110. The two countries are of course among the three most populous in the world.
The data is similar for previous few Games. In 2004 in Athens, the U.S. and China together bagged 68 golds. At Sydney 2000, the two were in the top three, separated only by Russia – which is the ninth most populous country. Looking further back in 1996, China was in 4th place, behind not only the U.S. and Russia, but also Germany – another country with a large population.
But a country like India contradicts this theory. It is the second-most populous country in the world, and yet it has won only two gold medals between 1960 and 2000. Now, there may be specific reasons for India’s lackluster performance, but mostly, you can put this down to wealth – despite its rapid growth, India has a very low per capita GDP.
Again, looking at the tables from the Beijing games, the top eight nations have pretty high average incomes. The more discretionary income people have, the more likely societies are to spend time, money, efforts on sports. The clear outlier here is of course China, with the lowest GDP per capita (though still three times that of India's). Here we come to the authoritarian exception. Authoritarian governments tend to be able to disproportionately allocate resources towards sports. Look at China’s success in developing badminton players and swimmers or Kazakhstan’s exploits in weightlifting. The former Soviet Union was the perfect example. It marshaled tremendous resources during the Cold War to rack up medals and thus demonstrate the vitality of its economic and political model – it won the most golds in three consecutive Games starting in 1972. And look also at Cuba – in 2008, it won more medals than did its vastly larger and richer neighbor Brazil.
A number of economists have tried their hand at predicting how many medals countries will win this year. Well, I'm going to make some predictions for the distant future. Let’s call it the 2040 Games, perhaps in Lagos, Nigeria.
Emerging markets will get better and better. Look at this chart of medals won by those countries since 1984. From less than a quarter of medals at the Los Angeles Olympics, emerging markets now win more than half of all medals. That trend will continue. But here’s a twist: China has already peaked. Population matters, but so, too, does demographics. One in four Chinese will be above the age of 65 by 2050. That’s the same number you see right now in Japan, and Japan has seen declining returns over the last few Olympic Games. By the same token, countries with dynamic, young populations and fast-growing economies are likely to do better.
So my prediction for 2040 is this: the top medal winners will be the United States, India, China, Indonesia, and Brazil – in that order.
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Predictions of Olympics being held in Lagos, Nigeria – ha! I'm sure these predictions will turn out as true as those princely letters.
...true enough...plus America will be lucky to survive the next decade.
Where did you copy this article?
Common man , give some respect !! just because it an honest mistake doesn't give you the liberty to start bashing him , he's a person of high caliber and a great intellectual.
So Fareed is a plagerist... too bad, I guess he wasn't so smart afterall. It's back to Pakistan for you, you dope...
He's just a self-righteous academic. There are many like him out there and they supposedly know everything and will be more than happy to tell you just that! Good riddance to him and hope that Time-Warner has the smarts to sack him.
Pull the plank out of your own eye you self righteous hypocrite. Mr Zakaria is one of the most intelligent, thought provoking insightful man on television. You would die to have 1/4 of his accomplishments so go drop your shovel and pick up a book before you bury yourself in your ignorance.
how sick can you all be (M Irfan, Mitchell Simpson, jack mayhofer) M Irfan.. I am so sure you are a cheat as well but the only thing is that you have never been caught at it... how would you like being made fun off for a mistake?? Fareed Zakaria is a "man" of honor (unlike you) and accepted his mistake and should be appreicated for being honest. @jack mayhofer you are so darn racist? you know i am trying to imagine what you look like all i can think is of crap (and you know what kind of) coming out of your mouth.. Mitchell Simpson with all due respect I hope you get sacked as well for the mistakes you make at work and at that same moment you remember this comment of yours. People make mistakes all the time... whats more important is realizing and accepting... Honestly speaking If i were Zakria maybe I would have never been able to accept my mistake... but WOW! at the end of the day Zakria's respect has only increased in my eyes..
There is no way India will be second in the Olympics medal tally even in 2040. Its not just the lack of money or the wrong government policies that results in a poor performance in Olympics. There simply is no interest for most of the Olympic sports (to name a few gymnastics, diving, equestrian sports) in India which is the main reason for its failure. And I don't see the interest rising in those sports.
its wrong.....this is all a money game..if government is ready to spend million of money for sports..wont you take part in it...you will.......tats the true part in it..but indians have more precious things to do rather than putting all money in sports...have to develop infra structure, job, education, transport, law etc etc etc etc.........
i bet to differ with this prediction...............race does matter when it come to sport. since US have a money and abaundance of different race they will continous to dominate in sport, but talk about india being second is a big joke. sports is sometime incorperate with culture and i dont see an indian female wearing a swim suit to compete in olympics game....the year u gave is too soon. may be 2060
Predictions that India will place second is criticized by many readers. Reasons I would be cynical about the predictions is not for the low per-capita income theory, but for the following reasons:
1) Sports in not given as much importance, as any other academic field in schools or colleges. Thus, athletes lack the amount of family and society support to pursue their career.
2) Culturally, I feel that there is a great amount of pessimism in public thinking. Just reading all the posts makes me confirm this belief.
I believe that India can surely place second, given we bring some changes to the school system to identify and support the talented athletes.
Watch bollywood movies. The impression that indian females don't wear swimsuits will be dispelled. there are other reasons for india not doing good
Dude, in which century are you in?, are you from mideaval age?. for Americans there is no world outside US. Who said in India women do not wear swimsuits while swimming, google "nisha millet" for just one example. What a dumb opinion.
The United state will dominate the Olympic game for a long time to come due to a lots of reasons, for India the answer is no and for a country like Nigeria to host Olympic makes everything about the prediction wrong. Even in heaven Nigeria will not be allow to host such a game...
GREAT BRITAIN will continue to do very well, we invented almost all of these sports, and are the premier sporting nation.
Of Course that will be your theory! Alas if only that were to be true.. Where is GB in Badminton? in Tennis Murray may have won a gold.. But GB is light yrs away in tennis from being a superpower.. Athletics? Swimming? Agreed you guys are awesome at cycling.. But in evert other sport you guys are there just to make noise and remind everyone that the sport originated from ur country..
Actually we are also good at Sailing, Rowing (where we came top of the medal table), it look very likely that GB will dominate the boxing ring. An yes we are very good at cycling if only cycling had the same amount of medals available as swimming we will would probably have beaten the US in the medal table an nibbeling at the heels of China. An it seems that Britain is becoming a super power in dressage and show jumping events.
I am expecting GB will grow stronger in tennis in the future, especially Women tennis where we have talent coming through. Swimming has been a disaster this Olympics for the UK an I blamed the sacking of several tough no nonsense coaches back before Beijing who were tough on the swimmers and they achieve there best result in Beijing, the swimmers moan and got them remove and ever since we have been declining in the pool since Beijing.
interesting. england invented the game of cricket. never won the world cup in one day cricket. granted it is doing much better in test cricket.
buy some more african athletes to run for team gb and prove yourself that you are the best...so dumb..
And what about United States of Europe
And I hope that by 2040 this brand of predictive Political Science theorizing will be also be on the wane! Where, for instance, is that fuzzy "variable" of sporting culture? I would wager that with rising per capita GDP Indians would be more keen on consuming and traveling than in cultivating an interest in sports to the extent that it lands them on the 2nd spot of the Olympics medals tally.
"So my prediction for 2040 is this: the top medal winners will be the United States, India, China, Indonesia, and Brazil – in that order." You will be dead wrong sir!
Well its not only about the money (GDP PPP) and population take example of Hungary – they beated Italy and Australia with 8 Gold medals!
Hey, check out the medal count of the 2012 London Olympics and much, much more!
http://www.databayarea.com
Though its a good read, but putting US at top in Medals table for 2040 itself contradicts your theory of emerging markets, well who says US has the emerging market, its the most saturated market, may be investment in sports and training infants for particular game will still be matter as it matters now
Obviously, Mr. Zakaria's audience is mostly American and he does not want to offend his host country.
I predict India, China, USA, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil ... in that order. Cutures changes, but demographics along with economic growth makes this as sure a bet as possible!!
something like:Filed under: [Foldername].You can then easily scaerh inbox, sent items etc for that keyword. And file. It wont work for new emails being sent to you but it will help you keep track of those that you have sent, which is usually more important (those are the ones you have gotten yourself committed to).
Mr. zakaria. I love your show and follow it closely. I believe you are one of the smartest in your field and often right on the money. However, a while ago you talked about the crazy theories the Iranian government had about Zion being the symbol of London Olympics. I totally agreed with you and as we all know these crazy conspiracy theories are nothing new with Iranian government. At the end however, you made fun of how Iranians been winning less and less medals in every olympic game and sarcastically pointed that they will stop wining any medals in future. I don't see why you should connect the Iranian government with the Iranian athlete's success. As an Iranian who has had to leave my country due to oppression, I am still proud of my people and country and like many other iranians hope that the religous dictatorship of Iran would not last long and Iranians will have their country back. I felt offended by your comments ridiculing Iranian athletes who are not necessarily representing the Iranian regim but the proud Iranian people. Many of our athletes supported the green movement a few years ago with the goal of ending this oppressive regim. Now, the fact that they did not get any foreign support and didn't succeed is another story.
I like Mr. Zakaria. When I have seen him on the telly, he's seems like a nice bloke, a smart bloke. He writes well. But here, as with pretty much everything he says and writes, his "analyses" and his "theories" about this, that, and the other thing: well, he talks complete bollocks. To get any clarity on anything, and as a start, I think he needs to work a little harder on getting over his son-of-immigrant's-love-affair-with-uncle-Sam.
Predictions that India will place second in Olympics, 2040 may become a reality. I have read readers' comments and no doubt these comments are close to what we Indians think of ourselves. Poor show in Olympics may be contributed to obsession of Cricket -a religion in India- as well as to low per-capita income. Wealth is certainly a big factor to do well in these sports as chances of success and earning money are very bleak if somebody makes a particular game as her profession. When you don't have money to survive you will more concentrate on means to earn money than on games – hunger comes before entertainment. I have been closely observing India for last 10 years, not only it has shown a robust growth in GDP terms but it has also gone through drastic changes at root level. For an example, visit a remote village in India, you may find women going to work in schools, post offices and other government offices, this was not the case 10-15 years back when girl child was devoid of basic education. If last 10 years changes are anything to go by, India will be an entirely different Nation in next 28 years. It is very interesting question whether Indians will show interest in these games, I feel once your basic needs are fulfilled, you tend to generate interests for hobbies, games and anything which gives some kind of satisfaction. Recently I visited a government school ( students who can not afford fee for a private school go to such schools and teachers hardly teach in such schools) in outskirts of Hyderabad. I asked students of 8th standard what they want to be in their life, and I was surprised by the answers. Almost every student has a dream, out of 23 students 6 wanted to be Mechanical Engineer – not just an engineer, 5 wanted to be doctor, 1 wanted to be "world famous" doctor, and interestingly 3 wanted to be cricketers, 2 wanted to be Volleyball players and 1 wanted to be a singer. You can see the change, 10 years back even in 12th class students did not know what they wanted to be forget about having too specific goals. Even in London Olympics 2012, some Indian players reached to quarter finals. Next time we will come more prepared. World!! keep a watch over us.
Apart from what stated,one thing which is of primal importance is patriotism.Do we have people who can have "70 minat" talk to players so that everyone puts the country first & then rest other things like money/jobs/etc.Parents seldom tell their kids to take up sports or atleast play sports.the reason we have mob-unrest in India is that we are not sportsmen,because a sportsmen have patience,they know what defeat is.We have number of hollywood movies which are sports theme based,these movies bring out what the reality is.Not to forget that we are Dal/chawal/sabzi community & when we take on sports where physical dominance is crucial(look @ hockey,we are better in football) the results are heartbreaking.India needs to have strategy in sports(IF) to make it a world reckoner.till then 2040 will be just another olympics as is 2012.
the british invented one more way to screw the indians,i.e.cricket..unless and until indians stop playing this stupid game..they will never be a sporting nation.
Well the answer is money money money those that choose to invest will be top in the table those that do not will not win medals. Nothing to do with populations.
The United Kingdom is a prime example of this, lottery funding means that GB, when population is taken into account are way ahead of everyone in the medal league. Infrastructure, technology and organisation combine together have produce this GB team. An if GB keep up funding at current levels we will only improved and there plenty of areas to improve. Even in the US where scholarships pay many athletes wages, and china invests huge amounts in their team.
I do not know what the medal table will look like in 2040s, the olympics games then will be very different than the games we have today, more BMX and other extreme sports ( cage fighting, Roller blade derby, base jumping around an Olympic city would be cool to watch), we will probably see more sports as well at the Olympics overall in the future rather than sports being cut, which was partially done because of broadcast schedules which will become less important in future Olympics.
Indian people Love Cricket Cricket Cricket Cricket and Cricket . In 2040 you can not play All other Sports in India . Only cricket . Government is try to do opposite . Cricket is most exciting game but it take a lots of time . Which is why Cricket is not number one sports .
bollywood, cricket,and caste...india will never achieve anything of any significance...
LOL! What a funny guy Fareed Zakaria is! Always wants India to be near the top! lol! Good luck with that!
Here's a prediction. Zakaria will be suspended for plagiarism....
Well, he just proved to be a great cheater of all time. So, saying about India near the top...who trust him any more. this is addicted thing and who knows for how long this has been going on, not just 2009 incident.
I wish he never comes back with CNN, Time or any other prestigious media...
Why are people telling Fareed that this will happen and this will not happen? t's an opinion. Besides, no one can predict something that far and his judgement is based on economies of emerging nations. There is no one perfect criteria.
As for my opinion, India will most likely gain interest in Olympics if Cricket is introduced. The "greed" of winning gold medals will expose other fields to the people and therefore, gain interest.
Besides, most Olympic participants end up in either depression or handicapped in job market because they usually devote their lives to their sport. The very few percentage gets endorsed and make millions but the majority is forgotten. No one cares about the bronze medal and almost no once knows the 4-10th person 5 mins after the match. The point I am trying to make is Olympics is nothing great of a deal but an interruption by the big corporations to sell the product of these players and make profit out of it. And the idea that Olympics inspire people to become more athletic lasts no more than a week.
India has a lot to catch up with, if it wants to join the exclusive club of top five. Their athlets need to live half a year abroad to get their training. The country's climate is not favourable. Besides the government has to invest in infrastructure like stadions and swimming pools etc. etc.
j von – I do not understand your comment "The country's climate is not favourable" since the most simple research shows the following:
Analyzed according to the Köppen system, the climate of India resolves into six major climatic subtypes; their influences give rise to desert in the west, alpine tundra and glaciers in the north, humid tropical regions supporting rain forests in the southwest, and Indian Ocean island territories that flank the Indian subcontinent. Regions have starkly different—yet tightly clustered—microclimates. The nation is largely subject to four seasons: winter (January and February), summer (March to May), a monsoon (rainy) season (June to September), and a post-monsoon period (October to December).http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_India
How could such a diverse climate be a detriment to training?
Sorry man. Nigeria won't even exist by 2040. Here is a clear picture of d near-future: http://www.kingkoboko.wordpress.com/nigeria-tomorrow
As 4 medals, Biafra wil win a gold in football. While China wil top d table
CNN and Time magazine have suspended columnist and TV host Fareed Zakaria after he admitted to plagiarizing part of a New Yorker article on gun control. What can I say? ;>)
In 2040, only 28 years away, India will go from winning only 3 medals now, to top China (100 medals last game) and Russia, are you freaking kidding me? Look at the Power outagea 2 weeks ago that caused 600 million people without electricity, look at all the people climbing on top of trains to move from one place to another, look at the chaos in most of india cities, look at the literacy rate in the whole of India, India would be very lucky to even crack top 5 by 2040. The only reason Zakaria is predicting medals about 2040, is because nobody will know it until 28 years later, and he doesn't want to make any predictions about India in the next game @ 2016 or 2020 because everyone will know about it in 4 or 8 years. I have many indian friends in USA, they all make good incomes, but every time you ask them to go play sports, they say nooooo, you have a BBQ party, they say yessss. It's more of a culure thing besides population, income, race (physical body structure).
What's the point? Will anyone remember these predictions or care about them in 2040?
July goals were to do more drawing. Did it. Take care of my hetlah I got my blood sugar and cholesterol levels pretty much back to normal.I also wanted to get to the museum and see the new Tiffany additions. I decided to wait until Sept when Friday afternoons are free.Goals for August are to update my wardrobe before my Sept vacation, get more highlights in my hair and make some beaded bracelets. I already have the beads and wire, I just need to put them all together. It's more like jewelry rehab to remake some things I already have.
India is a large population country, why they didn't do good at Olympics?
b
Fareed is only making a point that there are certain factors which contribute to medal tally vs talent. Motivation is another one in addition to resources. Some countries will fare better than they are today. I have porblem with Michael Phelps getting so many medlas vs Basketball players only getting a part of a medal. I think some sports are different and if you allocate your national planning to some sports you can alwasy win more golds/medals.
Fareed, please come back and enlighten us with your incisive commentaries and predictions
You are dead wrong about India, Fareed. Thanks to Indian govt, Indians will never be allowed to perform better in sports.
Look at our boxer Mary Kom. She didnt even have proper food for last 5 years. Its not just about poverty.
Indian govt doesnt do enough/nothing to encourage sports. Required infrastructure is clearly missing.
So a gymnast or a swimmer or a diver isnt going to come out of India.
We have bigger problem Fareed. Big cities in India are running out of Water. Food inflation is sky rocketing.
Life is very tough. So normal man cant afford to train for a specific sport. We are busy trying to survive.
So Olympics will continue to remain a distant dream.
True that for India, if they can overcome their population and illiteracy problems first....
Hmm, 2040 isn't so far ahead – it's less than 30 years away and we are nearer to it than 1983. For India to finish second in the medals table at the 2040 Olympics (wherever this is), a cultural sea change will need to take place. Cricket is the overwhelming sport at present, and right now every single Indian boy wants to play cricket – they're not interested in football (soccer), rugby, cycling, swimming, or athletics........just cricket, and perhaps abit of hockey. This has to change. Also am I right in thinking that Indian girls are actively discouraged from playing sports as sport is considered a masculine thing in India.
Add to this mix, the crippling poverty levels throughout the country – worse than any South American country and many African countries, and the extremely high illiteracy levels, and this is why India flopped so badly at the 2012 Games. They need to overcome every single one of these obstacles if they are to ever realise their goal of finishing second in the medals table in 2040, as right now they're nowhere near good enough to get a top 20 place let alone runners up spot.
I also think that because of all these problems India has, and the fact that Cricket 'crushes' all other sports, we won't see an Indian city hosting the summer Olympics until 2040 at the earliest. I think they will get the 2048 Games – as this would be a fitting time for India, being 100 years after independence.
My Olympic Cities predictions
2020 – Istanbul or Tokyo
2024 – Melbourne or Toronto
2028 – a European City....Paris, St Petersburg, or Rome
2032 – a Far East City....Tokyo (if not 2020), or Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)
2036 – a US city......Chicago, Boston, or San Francisco
2040 – an African city......Cape Town, Nairobi (Kenya), or Casablanca (Morocco)
2044 – Melbourne (if not 2024) or a European City.....see earlier entry, or maybe Milan, plus cities like Lisbon...or even Naples (if it cleans up its act)
2048 – Mumbai.......finally an Indian city! ...they might even top the medals table this year and see off China – but they need to start changing now in 2012, not wait for another 10 years before starting to embrace other sports.
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if spelling becomes a sport then india has a chance
"buy some more African athletes". What are you talking about? The only British athlete with a connection to Africa is Mo Farah and his dad is British born and bred. He met Mo's mum when on holiday in Somalia. They initially settled there but when Mo was eight his dad decided to bring his family home to Britain. Point being Mo was a Brit by birth and has lived here most of his life.
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Fareed is a lunatic. India?