Why sticks don't work with North Korea
January 25th, 2013
11:59 AM ET

Why sticks don't work with North Korea

By Charles Armstrong, Special to CNN

Editor’s note: Charles Armstrong is the director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University. The views expressed are his own.

Anyone who has followed North Korean affairs for the last several years (or the last two decades) could have predicted North Korea’s defiant response to the U.N. Security Council resolution this week condemning North Korea’s rocket launch last December and strengthening international sanctions against Pyongyang. But it should also be clear by now that while carrots only occasionally deter North Korea’s provocative behavior, sticks – whether in the form of sanctions or threats of military action – only make North Korea defiant and more bellicose.

In 1994, the first time the United States proposed taking the North Korean nuclear question to the United Nations, North Korea announced that any impositions of U.N. sanctions would be considered “an act of war.” In 2006, and again in 2009, North Korea responded to U.N. sanctions not by giving up missiles and nukes, but ratcheting up the rhetoric. In the past, promises of security and economic aid have persuaded Pyongyang to freeze or reduce its missile and nuclear programs: North Korea halted its plutonium program for eight years following an agreement with the United States in 1994, adhered to a voluntary moratorium on missile tests from 1998 to 2006, and shut down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor in 2007 as part of a multilateral agreement. The record may not be terribly encouraging, but carrots do occasionally work.

Much has been made of the fact that North Korea this week directed its threats specifically against the United States (before issuing a warning to South Korea earlier today), calling America its “sworn enemy” and claiming that its would “target” the United States with its weapons. But this too is nothing new. North Korea has for years denounced America’s “hostile policy” toward Pyongyang and has long insisted that its nuclear program is designed to defend the country against an American attack. North Korea’s ability to strike American territory with missiles is questionable, and North Korea almost certainly lacks the technological capability to mount a nuclear weapon on a missile. Neither side is willing to back down, but threats and sanctions are unlikely to resolve the key issues dividing them.

More from GPS: North Korean dance begins again

For the past year, the North Korean regime has been focused on internal power consolidation under the leadership of Kim Jong Un. Part of Kim’s legitimacy rests on claims of a robust national defense, including nuclear weapons. North Korea seems determined to be recognized as a nuclear power, something the United States and other countries have said repeatedly is unacceptable. But it seems there is little anyone can do to prevent North Korea from developing its nuclear program, including conducting a third nuclear tests (after the ones in 2006 and 2009) in the coming weeks or months. The latest sanctions announced by the United Nations may look robust on paper, but without enforcement – above all by China, North Korea’s most important economic partner – sanctions have no teeth. So far, Chinese enforcement of U.N. sanctions has been tepid at best, as China prefers to keep North Korea economically viable rather than risk instability on its border.

Kim Jong Un has also talked about improving North Korea’s moribund economy and hinted that he would move the country in the direction of reform and opening. Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s visit to Pyongyang earlier this month could point the way for North Korea to come out of its shell and join the global economy. The visit was criticized by the U.S. State Department, and doesn’t seem to have produced anything of significance so far. But the very fact that North Korea allowed the visit suggests Kim Jong Un is interested in bringing modern technology to his country, to improve the state of the North Korea economy through connections with the outside world.

The dilemma, though, is that North Korea can only embark on serious reform from a condition of what it considers absolute security, in which neither the leadership nor the country as a whole is threatened by hostile outside forces. Unfortunately, the quest for security and the desire for economic improvement have been in contradiction for some time. A genuine opening could unleash political and social changes that threaten the legitimacy and stability of the regime, while the path of security through nuclear deterrence and missiles have led time and again to confrontation and renewed isolation.

So, where do we go from here?  The United States and the United Nations have little choice but to impose sanctions in response to North Korea’s actions, which clearly violate earlier sanction conditions. But it is hard to see how such sanctions can deter a determined and defiant North Korea, especially if the sanctions are not rigorously enforced. The best we can hope for is that the latest confrontation will finally bring all sides together – including both Koreas, the United States, China, Russia, and Japan – to solve this issue.

Diplomacy, not threats or sanctions – and certainly not military action – is the only viable path to resolution.

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Topics: China • North Korea • United States

soundoff (246 Responses)
  1. BillBob

    Sticks won't work with NK. Judging from their pudgy potentate, especially sticks with food impaled on them.

    May 3, 2013 at 7:01 am | Reply
  2. mark jimenez

    STOP BTTCHING AND DO SOME CHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    May 12, 2013 at 11:45 am | Reply
  3. Brian

    Diplomacy will never work with N.K. Silly op-ed.

    May 21, 2013 at 7:21 am | Reply
  4. Michael

    Why sticks don't work with North Korea:
    Because we haven't used them yet.

    May 23, 2013 at 11:13 am | Reply
  5. go

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    May 24, 2013 at 5:29 am | Reply
  6. Billy

    The last statement in this article is naive. Diplomacy will not work with North Korea. This is a regime that puts generations of families in concentration camps, and lets its people starve. Diplomacy hasn't worked with them in the past. What they need to be offered is nothing. This regime has been living off of western aid for too long now. The rest of world lets this regime exist while it puts its citizens into concentration camps, lets them starve, pilfers the aid that is sent for the citizens, and grinds down their spirits until they are parodies of human beings. It's time for a change of tact; Diplomacy has failed with North Korea.

    May 26, 2013 at 2:39 am | Reply
  7. Billy

    What's needed is No Diplomacy with North Korea and a solution in which the burden does not fall on China.

    After the second world war the UN was set up to ensure that situations like the Holocaust never happened again. Situations like the Holocaust have happened again, though often in shorter time frames, and in war zones. The concentration camps in North Korea are different. The UN has known about them for years through survivor reports and through satellite technology, yet nothing is done to stop the concentration camps existing. The current North Korean regime is a blight on human nature and it is pathetic that the world stands back and allows it to continue to commit atrocities on the North Korean people.

    May 26, 2013 at 2:55 am | Reply
  8. Ton

    Obviously the author is just so naive to even think that to deal with a dictator, all you need to do it to tell him "ya good boy, don't do it again", then expects that your words work miraculously. Btw, why this has to do with the US? Just stop all the food and they will beg to open up, sooner or later.

    May 26, 2013 at 6:57 pm | Reply
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    May 26, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Reply
  10. murthy

    Sticks do not work anywhere,neither in North korea nor in Iran. West was always wrong in thinking that sanctions can make a country change its course. Incentives are the only peaceful method to solve the problems.

    June 3, 2013 at 3:11 am | Reply
  11. Matt Mueller

    And incentives don't work in terms of doing what really needs to be done in North Korea. Freeing and protecting its citizens. Any incentives simply reinforce the position and privileged power of the ruling class in Pyongyang. The only openness Un is interested in is in the kind of openness that gets him more money, power, and luxuries. Targeted sanctions help some but not much. But more so than incentives that get the North Korean powers to lull the west to sleep while consolidating their domestic power and extending their rule by decades

    June 5, 2013 at 12:40 pm | Reply
  12. greg

    Why do we bother with anything this idiot says? Don't even cover this Fat boy.

    November 25, 2013 at 2:13 pm | Reply
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