By William Young, Special to CNN
Editor’s note: William Young is a senior policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. He was formerly a senior officer with the Central Intelligence Agency with extensive experience in the Middle East. The views expressed are his own.
All roads lead to Damascus…and back out again. Financial and military aid flowing into Syria from Iran, Russia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and other Arabian Gulf states aims to influence the outcome of the conflict between a loose confederation of rebel factions and the Bashar al-Assad regime. But this outside support could merely perpetuate the existing civil war and ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shia areas, reshaping the political geography of the Middle East.
In many ways, this is a continuation of the historical struggle between Sunni against Shia for dominance in the Islamic world, with Israel as another nearby target. Historical hatred between extremists on both sides of the conflict has already begun to spread fear and influence political sentiment north and east into Turkey and Iraq, west into Lebanon, Israel, and Palestine, and south into Jordan and the Arab Gulf. To understand these trends, it is important to ask: Who benefits from the conflict in Syria, and who loses?
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The most obvious beneficiary is al Qaeda and affiliated groups. War zones and other ungoverned areas facilitate their contributions to insurgencies, provide safe havens, and expand their reach. The clear divide between Sunni and Shia in Syria offers a unique opportunity, however: a fight for control of Islam with historical antecedents in the centuries-old animosity between Salafists and Nusayris, or modern-day Alawites. The Alawites, the ruling minority under al-Assad, have much to lose in the struggle. The threat of retribution by those oppressed by the regime will likely galvanize commitment to the conflict. Iran also stands to benefit from either an unlikely al-Assad regime victory or a protracted civil war. It undoubtedly views the fight for the survival of the regime as a way to both maintain influence and further its regional goals through Syria’s proximity to Israel.
The Palestinians are also potential beneficiaries. Instability created by the conflict brings uncertainty for Israel and Jordan, along with opportunities for Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, and refugee camps along the Syrian coast and in Jordan. They could either join the jihad against the Alawites or benefit peripherally from political arrangements brokered by the United Nations, the Arab League, or others.
Finally, the Kurds in northern Syria may benefit by either supporting the regime or negotiating with the Turks and allying with their Kurdish brethren in northern Iraq. Although the latter strategy is unlikely because of divisions in Iraq, it should not be completely discounted. The Kurds have proven to be masters at playing all sides simultaneously, out of necessity.
Who loses as the conflict drags on? U.S. allies Jordan and Israel, along with the broader social fabric of Syria and Lebanon, stand to lose the most. Refugees, economic hardship, and cross-border tensions are likely to stir political sentiment and embolden Palestinian and other political groups in Jordan to press for radical change. Such political unrest opens the door for al Qaeda and its affiliates to strike at both the Jordanian monarchy and Israel. Israel, distracted by the conflict in Syria and Iran’s nuclear ambitions, may have to confront a much more permissive Egypt and aggressive Palestinian population in Gaza and the West Bank.
More broadly, Iraq stands to lose from the spillover of sectarian strife within its own borders. An extension of the conflict would only add to Iraq’s unification challenges. And the governments of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar will need to monitor stirrings of rebellion among their Shia populations, which Bahrain has already experienced. Efforts by these majority-Sunni regimes to fuel the fight against the Alawites in Syria could ricochet back in the form of internal political and social unrest. Their financial assistance could also find its way to al Qaeda affiliates.
More from CNN: New Taliban likely to be in Syria
With no apparent coalition of interested parties to broker peace or guarantee a decisive victory, the civil war will likely continue without some form of Western political and military intervention. Although outside efforts to arm the rebels would help level the playing field in Syria, such a strategy would not ensure victory, and the weapons could fall into the hands of extremists for use against Israel, Jordan and other neighboring countries. The regime’s retaliation with chemical weapons against more heavily armed rebels could spur outside military intervention on humanitarian grounds.
The fast pace of change in Syria is another game-changing variable to consider. What could be done today might not be possible tomorrow. Inaction has its price: continued loss of innocent life, the hardening of positions on both sides of the conflict (which makes negotiating a settlement more difficult), and a vacuum filled by extremists are just a few examples of the risks that inaction poses.
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Yes, perhaps there is a negative impact on US allies in the region but it is difficult to ignore the cynical argument put forward by some that the conflict is fueled, directly or indirectly, by the US and its allies who, arguably since Sykes-Picot, have had a strategy to incite Arab-against-Arab conflicts, promoting first one Arab nation, then another, all the time fueling historical animosities. Why wage war directly against Arabs - and Muslims - when the US and its allies can encourage (and support?) these old and often irrational conflicts?
Will be interesting to see how Turkey decides to play its cards and whether it actually does have the political ambitions in the region that some suggest.
As long as the instability can be contained, in this instance inside Syria's borders, the US and its chief ally, Israel, stand to gain. What seems irrational is for Israel to engage - the air strikes this week - and invite retaliation. (Hope US analysts and hand-wringing senators and congressmen remember Israel's pre-emptive strike when the inevitable retaliation takes place.)
I have to disagree with you logic here. For starters, it makes little sense to blame the US and its allies for "promoting first one Arab nation, then another" considering that the only possible alternative would be "promoting first another Arab nation, then the first".
Further, I do not see how the US and its chief ally, Israel, stand to gain from the instability in the Arab countries considering that this instability will have to end sooner rather than later and the ways it will end are not easily predictable.
Finally, I have some doubts about the "inevitable retaliation" from Syria. How many retaliation actions from Syria, Iraq, Sudan or other Arab countries against Israel can you name to support your claim about the Syrian retaliation being "inevitable"?
The author lamented the "inactions" from the West! To topple Assad would not mean the end of the conflict. It would take years to rebuild a post-Assad Syria and for the people to regain normality. One thing is sure, it will never be the same Syria that many have known. King Abdullah didn't fancy the notion of breaking up Syria. In light of these mosaics that were put together at random decades ago, it might just be a sensible thing to do. Each ethnie has its own territory and autonomy.
Egypt would be the real winner from the chaos in the Syria. Perhaps it might see the surge of foreign investments from the region, which could have gone to Syria or Lebanon. The Muslim Brotherhood would also emerge stronger and be seen as an example for the new Syria.
I would just say why would the usa be concerned about Isreal? They never did anything for us why do we spend millions on them every year and become targets beacuse of them? its ridculous! Im american I DONT CARE ABOUT JEWS, CHRISTIANS, OR MUSLIMS. Thier is not one jew, christian, or muslim that i would trade a U.S. soilder for.
I read this and never comment because of the level of stupidity that tends to troll these boards. Why in the world is the US being brought into this. When we do get involved directly we have some financial motive. When we don't this idiot says we are still behind the scenes pulling the strings. What a joke. These people were murdering each other long before the US was a country and god willing, they will be murdering each other when there are no longer countries as defined by geographic borders.
Mike, with the best will in the world you cannot say that the Obama/Clinton praising the onset of the Arab Spring was an intelligent move?
It was – at best ill-advised – and at worst downright irresponsible. Look at Egypt, Libya, etc......... the Middle East is now a hotbed of chaos run by multi factions all pulling in different directions where before, there were tribes who hated each other but didn't actually LIKE fighting.
So the US does, most definitely, interfere where you're not wanted. It wouldn't be so bad if you had a plan with a logical outcome, but you don't. Iraq is a mess and so is Afghanistan. I rest my case.
In fairness the US isn't the only one; UK, France and Europe meddle as well.
What about the massive support that these so-called "rebels" are getting from the U.S. and it's NATO allies which is far more than the Assad regime receives from Russia and Iran? Yes, there has always been an animosity between the Sunnis and the Shiites in the Middle East but the West has been only too successful in exploiting this over the past 150 years and continues to this day.
What 'massive support.' The whole point is they haven't given any military support at all, which is why the rebels haven't been able to finish off Assad .Ant that's something they are not going to forget
We should support and arm Assad to finish with this rebels. At the end of the day they are the same people killing our services men in Afghanistan .They rebels will be the first to thank us by killing our ambassadors.
china should just luanch a full scale nuclear attack on the western world nuke dublin ireland and ghana accra first with a 10 submarine based slbm jl-2b and then start to burn the rest of them to ashes begining with britain and australia when the retaliete then take out there intercontinetal ballistic missile with you df-19 in the medium re-entry fase. also hit israel the best choice would be a russian bulava on the new super submarine 10 of them armed with 6 nuclear warheads each wil do the job 60 nuclear weapons are moore then anuff. this has been long over due reduce them to dust.
You sir are a nut
or perhaps he is a member of Al Qaeda then would he be a nut? consider their goals before you decide.
Hey, ya i agree that guy is psychoo. butt please dont base all muslims on a psycho... this guy is really messed up in the head lol i dont even know if he IS a muslim.. all i know is that he gives bad name to muslims and arabs...
Are you a member of Al Qaeda or some extremist organization full of hate for western world ? You definitely sound full of hatred towards western countries. Why? Are they interfering in those countries - NO. Yes, they are doing business with them in Oil, etc. What's wrong with that?? Hating west for failures of muslim societies does not improve the lifes of people in those countries. The reason is the making of their own and it will change only, if the change comes from within and not from Islamic scholars and religious figures or Imams. All muslim countries enjoy the benefits of the modern world , created by western countries and hate them in all their communications. What a loosing strategy.
Likely an NRA card holder and member of the GOP.
look, this guy is CRAZY dont base all muslims on this psycho... hey look my dad is arab and my mom is american, we live in america and we are happy here. we dont want probloms yes we are sunni but we are not bad or nything i have alot of christian friends who understand the muslim crisis, like whats happening is syria as i can see they change everything on the news make it look like the rebels ar bad and alqaeda and assad is good... first of all you have to stop thinking that any muslim group is terrorest and barbaric... some americans were saying that the beheading of the woman in saudi arabia for killing an infant was crazy inhumane ect.. look this is what i want to know, if that was YOUR son or daughter. what would U want to happen to the woman??? im sure ur going to say torture her... and also like stealing.. if somebody steal from you something very expensive your going to say I WANT TO KILL THAT GUY... anybody would... in shariah law the person you stole from can forgive you, make you pay ransom for a short period of time and i think you can also work for him... its not always "barbaric acts" aside from all of that what would you think would be better, to steal and get your hands cut off. or to face years of hell as a punishment from God?
Gee zaeed, what do you have against us Irish anyway? It's England that conquered much of the Middle East and plundered many of those countries, including Iraq in the 2003 invasion ordered by Tony Blair in cahoots with George W. Bush. If fact, Ireland has been just as much of a victim of British rule as much of the rest of the world!
fucck you
Zaeed is absolutelyi right. The Irish are to blame for all this.
KILL THEM ALL!
fucckk you and your irish street whoore sister.
look man this guy is psycho i dont know what his deal is... we dont want to have war with anybody (real muslims) this guy is just an extremist dude dont base all muslims or arabs on him ok... o ant i wanted to say, im palestinian and we always thought we had a connection with people whose land was stolen from them like us lol just like native americans the irish and other countries lol so the point is this guy is crazy bro dont base your thoughts of muslims on him ok buddy. have a good day:)
wjmmccartan – You mean the British who with decent Irish military support beat Hiltler – while underhand, yellow Irish non-fighters helped German U-boats try to sneak in on the West coast of Ireland to attack Britain by the 'back door'??????
Have you ever considered running for the President, in whatever country you live in? (I pray to god you are not going to say you are an American).
zaeed, please get out of your mommy and daddy's basement for some sun and fresh air once in a while. Just another keyboard commando nut case.
Copy and paste fruit cake.
You said the same thing 6 months ago.....WORD FOR WORD.
You need to stop piddling on your keyboard.
Hey, buddy. u give a bad name to muslims and arabs. becuase of stupid people like you another world war will happen... BTW not all muslims are Alqaeda just because they are americas enemies. all americans hear on the news these days is palestinians killing innocent Jews , even though its the complete opposite. o and you know al qadsa was made by the cia to protect Afghanistan from soviet russia? and 911 was a operation by the CIA and not alqaeda, ok maybe some people helped with 911 butt doesnt mean all muslims are bad lol... everybody should just calm down on here if u guys wanna fight go make your own trolling website and fight on there...
Zaeedidoit What gives you or anyone else the right to kill 100 million species? look I dont care if you religious nut jobs( and thats what you are cause if thier is a god he created us all.) go and kill each other just leave the rest of the planet alone.
This is a joke, right?
The real losers in this conflict are the innocent women and children who have either been killed, displaced or lost any future oppurtunity to live a normal life.....
Excellent post and absolutely true. Bless you.
Al Qaeda and its off-shoots are the winners in Syria. The people of Syria are the losers as Syria is lebanonized. Israel loses because of the destabilization on its northern borders. In addition, there will be civil wars between the different sects, following the trend in Iraq. Al Qaeda in Syria will be free because intervention from external military forces is not practical. The net result is that more Syrians will be killed and more will flee to Turkey.
When Towel Heads kill other Towel Heads, it's a win-win situation.
Crazy jihadi nut jobs.
Do you want to move the Syrian war toward closure? Begin serious discussions on moving business and economic infrastructure to Libya or Egypt.
There has to be conflict somewhere in the world. It is population control.shutterbug
Demographic Winter – look it up. Population control is NOT, I repeat not an issue. A serious fall in the world population level is a massive threat to the future.
Do us all a favor, little man, take your brain out of neutral before engaging in first gear! Education is a wonderful thing.
Winners – Arms manufacturers and arms dealers
Loosers – Everyone else
"this is a continuation of the historical struggle between Sunni against Shia for dominance in the Islamic world"
And this is a self proclaimed religion of 'peace'.
My only comment to the illiterate person who has written this mediocre article is that learn some geography and some history. There's only one gulf in that region and it's simply called Persian Gulf. Good Night and Good Luck.
The author, just like Fareed, is clueless. This is a positive for Israel, either it will promote unrest in every Islamic nation ensuring no wars or it will give Israel an opportunity to use it's supposed WMD's on Arab countries and do away with them forever.
Jeff
Former AIPAC board member
The author's conclusions are absurd. Without question, Israel is a winner, with Syria, Iran and the Palestinians all losers. Assad was/is Iran's surrogate, an enemy of Israel and a Palestinian enabler. With Syria in turmoil and over 75k kiiled and hundreds of thousands of refugees, Israel has breathing room knowing that an unstable, distracted enemy regime on its northern border will not pose an immediate threat should a wider conflagration ensue. Also, what negatives to Israel are there if over 100k or more Syrians die?–that's 100k+ fewer future soldiers/suicide bombers/mothers sending children off to die. As for Iran, they lose their #1 ally, a weapons conduit to their surrogate Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Palestinians lose whenever there is distraction. These conclusions are not based in any reality.
What about peace in the region ?All this warmongering and preemptive strikes may just seal the fate of Israel. When some of the leaders in Russia and China learn the true history of Communism and destruction of their countries, it may be the end of Holy Land as we know it-too many problems with it for such a small population.
love John Lennon
We should support and arm Assad to finish with this rebels. At the end of the day they are the same people, killing our services men in Afghanistan .They rebels will be the first to thank us by killing our ambassadors.
Well, Assad fighting meanly women and children, those what you call rebels, they are just trying to protect their own people. Would you accept if President Obama bring his tanks and Air planes to wipe out all white people in America ?
sorry Assad is not fighting women and children as you call them . They rebels said that ; and you trust them..We heard the same thing in Libya at the end we saw how barbaric they are , beheading , killing ,sodomizing. same songs. but all the time they were lying ..our taxes money ended up where?
Now it is sunny-vs shia. sunni fighter from many country versus shia fighters. unfortunately they are many alqeda ,taliban in sunni. This time it is your problem.
Yes there are some alqead, but whose fails by making them come? Also, according to many sources, they are not more than 2000 in number. However, the FSA which you call them rebels, they are more than 100,000. Do you think we should look at the 2000, and ignore 100,000? Do not compair Syrian to Libya or Iraq or any other country, because it is different. Moreover, Why they do not include Assad regime when they talk about terrorist and alqead? No one committed crimes against humanity more than him, bombing Schools hospitals, and people lining up to by a bread, never done by any terrorist group except him. wake up David and be fair.
how is he not fighting women and children? blowing up hospitals as he does directly results in the deaths of women and children
David,
There is no need to arm Assad. Regardless of what you read in the western media, the ocnflict is almost over–in the mopping up stage. The Syrian Arab Army and Air Force remained strong and cohesive and defeated the rebel jihadists in every battle, killing tens of thousands of them. The rebels can only occupy small towns and mount terorist attacks, but even that capability is being decimated as the Syrian population hads turned against them and is now reporting their every movement.
I think the only loser of this conflict are the people of Syrian which is not even mentioned, this is proof of the inhuman of the writer of this article, like every body else work for CNN. It is very much racist article.
couldn't agree more
I hate to simplify but this is a shea vs sunni conflict basically, the shea are strict extreme to the letter islamists wereas sunni muslims are more secular believe more in western ways and generally dont want to stick to strict islamic law. The USA has good principals but the sunnis dont want sharia islamic law either and dont like the extreme muslims any more that we do but the problem is the sunnis are the one perpertrating the war. Assad and Saddam would just assume do our dirty work but that gets in the way of free fair elections when when held will put the shea muslims in power and create a worse problem for US middle east relations which is what we have seen in the Arab spring. In the final anaylsis, I believe its best for the US to back Israel, help the rebels indirectly and let the civil war play it self out. This is a classic situation of the cure is worse than the illnes.
Other than simply saying "Israel loses" the article makes zero specific assertions how that actually happens. Moire liberal Jewbashing based on nothing at all.
God bless Syria, its army and its president! There will be no mercy for those foreign backed rats.
God bless you and your family
This article is already dated. The rebels have been pushed out of their last major urban enclaves in Aleppo and are being mopped up in the countryside. Jordan and Saudi Arabia have abandoned them and it may be only a few months before the last of them is rounded up. The modern, secular Syrian people have had it with these jihadists!
I don't know who the winners are in this awful mess, but I'm pretty sure, the losers are the ten of thousands and counting that have already died in this conflict.
Bottom line.......there are no winners. End of story.
Then what in the world is his royal highness Obama doing? Nothing? Making the situation more complex? Screwing up?
What do you want him to do your royal dumbness?
Assad........just one of the worlds devils doing his fathers(Satan) will.........
.......The Destroyer has lit a fire on the earth, and violence and destruction will increase more and more, until the Prince of Peace returns...........
......Revelation 12:12.......... Woe to the inhabitants of the earth and the sea! For the devil has come down to you, having great wrath, because he knows that he has a short time.”..
The terrorists are winners, the civilians are losers.
I could not read the article: all I can see is Blah-blah-blah-blah...
Did I miss something important? Is there anything that CNN has not said before?
Your article lost credibility. After the first paragraph, I stopped reading. So you confirmed that Iran, Russia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and other gulf states are pouring weapons into Syria but you did not mention the godfather of Al-queada, the fund raiser for terrorists, and the country that have history of brutality, invasion, and terrorism, USA. It is easy to point finger and it is never our fault right? You sir is an idiot.
The biggest looser will be world economy, and the western countries will carry the huge of the blunt in a deteriorating economy.!
yea your right that is alot worst than seeing your wife and son shot in front of your eyes. the only losers are the civilians.
Who cares about isreal? They dont belong there and as far as being allies, all isreal has ever done for the USA is get us into conflicts that really dont concern us, and oh yea made most of the world hate the USA. Why should we care.
they should put all the Jews christians and muslims on one island and let them kill each other so the rest of the planet could get along in peace and harmony.
Why must we suffer so much the abuse on this lovely Earth of God's children. The madness in Syria is but a continuation of Assad family stupidity, brutality, and oppression going back generations. Everyone hates everyone, yet the Good Lord sends His rains down upon us all. Who is right? Sometimes it seems only the dead speak the truth.
What about the real winners? The Syrian people!
For the first time in many decades, they have a real choice to fight the Alawites on their feet instead of dying on their knees.
Good luck to the Syrian people, and may they have the opportunity to form their own government with just as little Western interference as they had to put up with during the fighting.
How does Israel not benefit by the weakening of Hezbollah and Iran owing to the loss of their main, mutual ally and the only bridge for arms shipments between the two? In writing this, did you bother to look at a map?
I feel sorry for the writer to call Persian Gulf, Arabian Gulf. Go learn your history before talking politics.
I'm glad that the US has decided to stay out of this conflict. The Arab league is perfectly capable of doing some good in Syria, but they all seem to be squabbling over which version of Islam is better and the Sunnis and Shias are killing each other like they have been for hundreds of years. They need to get with the modern world and stop these generational vendettas and reprisals. That's all I see in the middle east is people seeking revenge for this and that. Once all of the oil is gone, the rest of the world will cease to pay attention. The killing will continue like it already has for centuries, but people just won't notice. That is the fate of Islam, to remain wild, rabid dogs. Small tribes roaming the desert, fighting over faith, blaming the West for all of the uneducated, barbaric muslims hell bent on killing other muslims. Until the Arab League decides to take the lead and truly push for a peaceful solution, I don't see this conflict getting anywhere but worse. The Arabs need to grow up and realize that there is more to the world than religion and tribal conflicts. Looking back on a few hundred years of Islam, I don't see that changing for the better any time soon.
William Young; Arabian Gulf???? Did you flunk Geography in High School??? Ever since when The Persian Gulf (registered by the United Nations) became the Arabian Gulf. Unless you are among those Naive Americans who think by kowtowing to the Arabs (yes the same bunch who caused 911 in your country) can be your friends. Dream on. Next to the Iranian regime, the Saudi populace are the most dangerous enemy of America.
Or we could just call it "Towel Head Pond".
We don`t like Iranians. They have proved (the Government) to be fanatical, inefficient in every respect, untrustworthy, liars, bellicose. Want more?
Imagine that...a religion that glorifies violence and shuns innovation.
So, smart
did you find a religion that takes you to successful eternal life! if not keep searching and it is there it is contrary to evil side.
it is the truth
8=>(_|_)
As I read your post I can now rest assured of your fanaticism and ignorance. You are still living in the 7th Century.
The rebels now on the doors of the killer's palace and he will be brought to justice for all crimes committed against syrian people
that is the arab way and your dreams, but the main drive for that will be people of god will fight for, freedem truth and justice and that who will fight for evil and injsutce will be losers , so chose one side
easy ya
I will not choose your side. You fight to establish an Islamic regime, with sharia law. If you call that freedom, then you have remained in the 7th Century.
this is a heartbreaking video to illustrate the destruction and damage that is happening:
it shows the impact on the city of Aleppo, and it is a sample of what is going on in the rest of Syrian cities.
It will probably take at least 3 more generations for those people to learn that religion and politics don't mix. Lebanon used to be referred to as the Switzerland of the Middle East, now look at the mess there caused by mixing religion with politics. Now in Syria it's about one religious faction trying to hold on to power at any cost, and another religious faction opposing it. We have the al queda terrorists using religion to push their power-grabbing agenda, and so on. People in the Middle East, in general, seem to have their brains fried with too much religion. As John Lennon said: Imagine a world with no religion. Even here in the states, we have religious nuts trying to gain power. They tend to be concentrated on the more radical wings of one of our traditional political parties. I think it would be bad news if they ever rose and took over.
the best thing we in the western world can do is stay out of the middle east and let these people keep on killing each other! we could give arms to both sides so they can do it faster. this part of the world has been broken for hundreds of years by a faith that seems to be based in violence toward each other. lets let them fight it out and than deal with who ever is left many years from now.
I disagree with the list of losers. Clearly Israel wins. Why else would they be constantly violating their neighbors sovereignty and bombing without hesitation? Clearly USA needs to become truly neutral and/or leave the region.
Winners and losers? In a war? Everybody loses