By Fareed Zakaria
If you’re trying to decide what to think about the deal struck between the major powers and Iran in Geneva, here’s a suggestion – imagine what would have happened if there had been no deal.
In fact, one doesn’t have to use much imagination. In 2003, Iran approached the United States with an offer to talk about its nuclear program. The George W. Bush administration rejected the offer because it believed that the Iranian regime was weak, had been battered by sanctions, and would either capitulate or collapse if Washington just stayed tough.
So there was no deal. What was the result? Iran had 164 centrifuges operating in 2003; today it has 19,000 centrifuges. Had the Geneva talks with Iran broken down, Iran would have continued expanding its nuclear program. Yes they are now under tough sanctions, but they were under sanctions then as well.
More from CNN: 20 questions about the deal
And yet, the number of centrifuges grew exponentially (Despite all the sanctions and sabotage, keep in mind, the costs of a nuclear program are small for an oil rich country like Iran.)
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been opposed to a deal. But is it in Israel’s interest that Iran’s program keep growing in size and scope? That’s a strategy that assumes that either Iran is heading for collapse, or that a military strike will take place that would permanently destroy Iran’s entire nuclear program. This seems more like wishful thinking than tough strategizing.
The agreement that the major powers have gotten in Geneva essentially freezes Iran’s program for six months – and rolls back some key aspects of it – while a permanent deal is negotiated. In return, Iran gets about $7 billion of sanctions relief, a fraction of what is in place against it. The main sanctions – against its oil and banking sectors – stay fully in place.
More from GPS: What would JFK have done about Iran?
This is a sensible deal – signed off on by France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China – but it is just an interim deal and not a historic rapprochement. And that’s why so much of the opposition to it is misplaced.
Washington has many points of disagreement with Tehran, from its opposition to Israel and its support of Hezbollah to its funding of Iraq militias. This is not like the opening to China – it’s more like an arms control deal with the Soviet Union, with two wary adversaries trying to find some common ground.
Many countries in the Middle East – from Israel to Saudi Arabia – have legitimate concerns about Iran. But many of these countries have also gotten used to having a permanent enemy against whom they could rail, focusing domestic attention, driving ideological and sectarian divides, and garnering support.
The Middle East is undergoing so much change. Perhaps this is one more change. And perhaps Iran will come in from the Cold. For now, this deal is just one step, not a seismic shift. But it is still a step forward.
Lmao @ banasy, hence 50 shades of gray huh? Lol
Y.ou said it@chrissy. This do nothing Congress has been this country's undoing.
Their traitorous streak is manifest in their threats to block the Iran deal
So Obama won't run again on his I wasn't aware that Congress has the power to block something that other countries already signed...
Those still beating the drums of war in concert with the wailings of of House Of Saud and Netanyahu are hardly those who have America's interests at heart.
Nothing makes me more furious than hearing US right-wing pro-Israel republicans come out and say, in opposition to this nuclear deal, that We gave them the right to enrich, we gave them 7 billion, we allowed them to do this or that as if they have the sole ownership of that right, or if that is the US money they are giving away. As if they have a better solution (except to attack.) After 10 years of grueling negotiations, a modest deal is reached, war is postponed, no one is killed, no monetary cost for the US except Mr. Kerry's travel expenses, Israel is safer than ever, Iranian people are happy, there is no nuke and will not be one ever and all intelligent person realizes this except these right wing nuts. Now I am not a fan of neither regime of Iran or Israel and for that matter I regret voting for Obama, and I basically do not trust any government any where in the world, however the fact of the matter is that a day that a new war is not started is a good day for humanity.
Very well said.
"there is no nuke and will not be one ever"
I'm concerned that you really believe this. If only we could appease our way to peace.
This is a bad deal. Iran gets to keep too much and they can initiate re-enrichment at any time. We give them $5 – 10 billion of frozen assets and we get nothing but a promise they won't enrich beyond agreement. Iran has never kept their word and won't on this. We have them on the ropes with sanctions...tighten the screws even more.
Sanctions cannot force Iran to give up its nuclear program. Sanctions can only inflict enough economic pain so that Iran chooses to give up their nuclear program. If we give them harsher sanctions no matter what they do, they have no motive to NOT build a nuke. It's basic carrots and sticks diplomacy, except it doesn't work if we use nothing but sticks. We already tried that, and it clearly doesn't work. We refused to negotiate in 2003 and the number of centrifuges in Iran increased from 164 to 19,000. Just ignoring them will not magically make the problem go away.
When this deal becomes North Korea v2.0, it will be the final nail in the coffin for Obamas naiive forigen policy.
Im looking forward to seeing Obama trivialize rejected inspectors and obstruction as nations like Saudi, egypt and turkey ramp up their own "peacefull" nuclear programmes. And ofcourse alienating allies is not going to have any fallout. Im certain that Jerusalem will be very eager to compromize vs the palestinians and saudi wont nudge Closer to Putin.
Well done. Well done indeed.
Reblogged this on Journal and Journey and commented:
Reflection of recent temporary deals on Iran's nuclear program. The conclusion is: better have it than nothing!
Looking forward to countries in the ME ramping up their nuclear activities??? Wow! That sounds pretty vile actually. Is that so you can feel like youre right?
I actually think that President Obama actually believes each of his foreign policy moves is in the best interest of the United States (not sure about Israel). The reality is this administration in no uncertain terms will not wage another war in the middle east – full stop. To that end, this deal is merely an effort to postpone the almost inevitable conflict looming in the distance. Even if the US is out Saudi Arabia and Egypt and many other countries in the region (of course Israel) are in. They understand the implications of a nuclear Iran. The people with their fingers on the button are (unlike the former Soviet Union) irrational by Western standards – driven by passion and belief. That's dangerous. No one in any Arab country in the middle east lies awake at night worrying about Israel nuking their country. It just isn't reality. Israel has it's tiny (the size of New Jersey) Jewish state sitting on an Arab football field. It wants to avoid conflict with Iran – an Iran that doesn't promise to drive all the Israeli "rabid dogs" into the sea. That's what this is about. And do you know how I know that? Because that's want the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said numerous times. Are we a nation of four year olds – am I taking crazy pills here? This Iranian regime is hell bent on destroying the most reliable ally we have in the region.
I'm sure Obama thought that supporting the Muslim Brotherhood was in the best interests of the US and Egypt as well. Too bad he is so misguided.
No war is historically inevitable........wars take place because humans deem it so....people who posit wars as inevitable...inevitably wnat to see them take place. You're not a death lover are you david g? Your confirmation bias might convince folks otherwise, but your're not really are you?
I am so sick and tired of hypocritical news bias toward Israel. Why isn't is there no call for economic sanctions, an arms embargo and aid cutoff against Israel to require its' surrendering its' nukes for destruction and destroying its' nuclear arms infrastructure?!?!?! Mr. Zakaria is just as dishonest as all other news people on this. He is a coward.
If Israel did not have nukes, that entire region would be on fire...deterrent is on Israel's side.
Israel doesn't have nukes Terry....remember?
Mr Zakaria your argument is convincing, well presented. To those who say Isreal should surrender its nukes! THE ANSWER IS A BIG NO! WHY? Because the mindset of Iranians cannot and should not be compared to that of Israelis. I remember in the recent past the Israeli generals togeather with Ehud Barak held a different point of view from that of the Prime Minister, if memory is serving me well it was on the possibility of a military strike on Iran. The Generals call for cool heads to prevail and their reasoning against a military strike prevailed. Imagine if the Ayatollah called for military action who would oppose him in Iran. Then there is the belief system, it is such that those who are religiously brainwashed can start a dangerous nuclear conflict thinking that the 12th caliphate(who they believe will come after Christ) or something like that will come down to rescue them.
Remember some Countries and individuals&groups routinely threaten to wipe Isreal off the Map! a genuine reason why Isreal should keep its nukes but not suicidal religious madmen.
The Iranian military would opppose him Rufus. The Iranians were notified years ago that if they ever employed nuclear weapons......life as they know it would cease to exist. That message was communicated in no uncertain terms through the US Joint Staff to the Iranian MoD. I can assure you the Iranian general staff understands their strategic strike inferiority vis a vis the US and it's allies, and would do what it needed to do to prevent their country from being turned into a parking lot. The Iranians are never going to Nuke anybody.There is no way they could prevent or survive decisive retaliation in kind.
Because @ Terry, people like David think that Israel is the strongest alli we have. Nevermind the fact that Netanyahusanidiot has repeatedly tried to manipulate the US into one war after another!!
This 'Iran developing a nuclear bomb in 'weeks' in 'months' has been the chant of those who you see doing the same today in Israel, up on the Hill , here and elsewhere since 1979. .
Israel's security apparatus has time and again contradicted this propaganda and today it supports a deal with Iran. A war wary Israeli public wants to give peace a chance.
Its only the far right likudnic assembly of Netanyahu & co dreaming of a 'Greater Israel' with US as a tool that would oppose any move towards peace. Their agenda to remove obstacles like Syria, Turkey and Iran using US military stands jeopardized.
And@chrissy. That 'ally' of ours has been a liability now for decades.
"Israeli security team heading to US to 'shape' final Iran deal" News. How pathetic can our policy makers up on the Hill get? God.
"AIPAC has serious concerns on Iran deal" news. Well folks AIPAC is a spying wing and enforcer for the regime in Tel Aviv. What else can we expect?
Yes. This Congress has the power to make a mockery of itself by derailing the Iran deal and Pr.Obama has had to face such threats all along his presidency.
Lol @ saywhat, THIS congress has done a very fine job of making a mockery of itself for a very long time already! A perfectly good waste of oxygen is what they are! Useless!
Mr. Zakaria, you have a well balanced analysis of the situation. However, I would have wished that approached would have been more like Nixon and the communist china opening. The situation in the ME is dire and requires a quick fix. None of our allies have any interest whatsoever to help resolve the situation. Our nation/economy is bleeding and unfortunately most of our so called allies are somewhat happy to see it happening. Isreal is more interested in receiving its share of US handouts than worrying about our national and international interests. Saudis are more interested in staying in power and stockpiling wealth than what goes on around them.
Unfortunately, the ones that need to worry about the interests of USA are the very same that put the interests of Israel and Saudi Arabia ahead of ours. When was the last time any of these two countries did something for us?
The syncophants just can't help themselves ... Iran will have Nuclear weapons and that is NOT a good thing, not now,not in the future, and it is ALL do to a FAILURE of this administration. Fareed wants us all to believe that somehow the World is a safer place ... DIRECTLY because of the skill of Barack Husein Obama ! Meanwhile back in REALITYville ... SYRIA is a mess, EGYPT is a mess, BENGHAZI is a COVER UP ! Israel is more isolated than ever ... and on the day Kerry announces this "deal" ! The Iranian Foreign Minister is "PUBLICLY" telling his flock that they can still enrich Uranium ??? This Administration is INCOMPETENT ... like NO other in our history !
The truth is there is no easy solution with Iran.
If we continued and added to the sanctions, as the right-wing hawks would like, you virtually guarantee Iran goes underground (literally) and accelerates it's program in defiance.
In which case, we lose monitoring almost entirely, and must either attack their facilities, risking all out war with Iran and risk it spilling over into the entire region. Or we let them build nukes and try to manage them after the fact. Not a good option in my opinion.
We open diplomatic ties, have a serious dialogue, hammer out a fair deal, and monitor them very closely. If they break the deal we are in a better position to find out, and will have an internationally-backed agreement to back further actions if necessary. Meanwhile, we start to ease sanctions which hurt the Iranian people the most, and maintain open relations. This is the better option in my opinion. And remember it isn't written in stone. If Iran falters, the deal can be taken off the table and sanctions reinstated.
Well said @ Mycroscopic Truth! Very well said! Much better than blaming the POTUS for every stinking thing as some people are so very quick to do! Im not quite sure what exactly is the motivation behind that is, whether its a race thing or whether its just because he so obviously cares about humanity and they don't. Either way is NOT very attractive! So my applause to you for a well thought out post!
And with that i would also like to add, more people should THINK before they speak. Now i will take my old self off so i can "reminise the 70s and let the *ahem* youngsters do the thinking"! And yea that was a post i recently read from someone i had priorly had high regards for!
there was no urgency to make a temporary deal with the mullahs in Iran. I am Iranian and believe me I know mullahs and their mentality; they have been cheating the Iranians for 1400 years and they are going to cheat the west and play out this game until they get their hands on nuclear weapon. The best way for the west was to have continued the sanctions until they dismantled their nuclear apparatus and for sure they would have. There is no hardline faction or moderate faction in Iran. They play this hard line, moderate faction game to cheat the world and they only budge when their survival is in jeopardy.
The deal is not the issue. The issue is.......will it change what Iran does? I say no.......it will not change anything they are doing, at all, so the deal is nothing but a sham.
The only way to guarantee that Iran doesn't build Nukes is in 3 forms,
1. Take away it's ability to build one. (Intellectual ability, raw materials, will to build bomb for its defense, etc)
2. Get Iran to sign its own death or life warrant. In this case, let Iran prove its program is for peaceful purpose by signing a deal that will limit its program and guarantee it wouldn't build a bomb with regulators in place to verify on a regular basis that they comply with the terms of agreement and if there arise slight evidence to prove that Iran is close to having a bomb, Invasion. Preemptive strikes will be vital if a nation does what it says it is not doing. No country has good intension unless they prove it through deeds not just words.
3. Shut Iran down literally.
Of these three options, 2 is preferred. Iranian leader in the past had made comments about its objective and their deed funds terrorists and support tyrants. Maybe because it is military strategy who knows.
The world in other to avoid a 3rd world war should not permit the pilling up of more dangerous weapons (viruses, nukes, chems) thinking peace is in inaction. 3rd world war is not avoidable but the outcome can be favorable. A conflict begins when one nation's policy overreach and creates misunderstanding and then escalation and then war. If you can't understand someone, avoid em. if you can't avoid em, reach an understanding and there is only two ways to achieve understanding, violence or a deal. One is peaceful and the other is deadly but at the end there will be an understanding.
I am in favor of a deal, however, no deal struck should in any way rely on either our trust in them or their trust in us. The agreements must be verified that both they and we are in compliance. Generally this is how I feel about any international agreement because a nations leaders may change and may well hold specific goals or interests above those of honoring any agreement struck with another nation.
Hey Fareed Bin Laden, people like you are the reason Iran will detonate a nuke in Iran or the west some day. You are a dangerous person, just as much as Bin Laden himself. Maybe we need to declare war on YOU to save this nation.
The Global Public Square is where you can make sense of the world every day with insights and explanations from CNN's Fareed Zakaria, leading journalists at CNN, and other international thinkers. Join GPS editor Jason Miks and get informed about global issues, exposed to unique stories, and engaged with diverse and original perspectives.
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Obama as a foreign policy president?
Why Snowden should stand trial in U.S.
Hillary Clinton's truly hard choice
China's trapped transition
Obama should rethink Syria strategy
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