Editor’s note: Javid Ahmad, a native of Kabul, is program coordinator with the Asia program of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Mashail Malik, a native of Islamabad, is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. The views expressed in this article are solely those of Javid Ahmad and Mashail Malik.
By Javid Ahmad and Mashail Malik, Special to CNN
Tensions that flare between Pakistan's ineffective civilian government and influential judiciary reached an all-time high last week when the country’s Supreme Court disqualified Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani from holding office.
The unprecedented ruling came less than two months after Gilani was charged with contempt for his refusal to ask the Swiss government to reopen corruption charges facing President Asif Ali Zardari. It was followed days later by parliament electing a replacement, Raja Pervez Ashraf, who has also been accused of corruption in the past.
These recent developments signify the deep rift between Pakistan's different internal institutions. Pakistan’s civilian government, the powerful military, the increasingly active judiciary, and the many opposition groups in the country are juggling varied and often deeply conflicting agendas.
One thing these internal forces have in common is that each wants to be at the center stage of Pakistan's political structure, and each wants to win the frustrated population's support. The cost of this power struggle, however, seems to be given little consideration by the players involved.
Editor's note: Bernard Gwertzman, consulting editor at CFR.org, interviews Daniel Markey, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at CFR for this look at U.S.-Pakistan relations.
The CIA drone attack June 4 in northwest Pakistan that killed deputy al-Qaeda leader Abu Yahya al-Libi is the latest in a string of incidents that has brought U.S.-Pakistan relations to "a new low, relative to what we've seen since 9/11," says CFR South Asia expert Daniel Markey. In addition to drone attacks, the 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden, U.S. air attacks killing Pakistan soldiers along the Afghan border, and anti-Pakistan rhetoric have all contributed to the strained relationship. Markey also attributes the rift to the intensity of the Obama administration's counterterrorism focus and Pakistani mistrust about U.S. objectives in the region.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, visiting Afghanistan June 7, said because of attacks from Haqqani forces–insurgent Afghan forces based in Pakistan–the United States is "reaching the limits of our patience" with Pakistan. Does this indicate a new low in U.S.-Pakistan relations, or is this the new norm?
It is a new low relative to what we've seen since 9/11 [September 11, 2001], or at least it's a continued low from where we've been since the killing of Osama bin Laden last year [May 1, 2011]. FULL POST
Editor's note: Peter Bergen is CNN's national security analyst and the author of "Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for bin Laden, from 9/11 to Abbottabad."
It's the diplomatic equivalent of hosting both the World Cup and the World Series in the same country on the same weekend.
On Saturday President Obama welcomes the leaders of the world's most powerful countries to the G8 conference at his country retreat at Camp David in Maryland. And the next day he hosts some two dozen NATO heads of state in Chicago.
The challenges of this Diplopaloozaa include some complicated logistics: How do you get eight world leaders and their delegations comfortably situated in the rustic wood chalets that make up Camp David, and which has never hosted this many heads of state before?
Read more from Peter Bergen about the challenges, the Syria question and the last-minute guest at the NATO summit: Pakistan.
Editor's Note: Shashi Tharoor, a former Indian Minister of State for External Affairs and UN Under-Secretary General, is a member of India’s parliament and the author of a dozen books, including India: From Midnight to the Millennium and Nehru: the Invention of India. For more from Tharoor, visit Project Syndicate's great new website, or check it out on Facebook and Twitter.
By Shashi Tharoor, Project Syndicate
India and Pakistan are enjoying one of the better periods in their turbulent relationship. Recent months have witnessed no terrorist incidents, no escalating rhetoric, and no diplomatic flashpoints. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari just made a successful, if brief, personal visit to India (mainly to visit a famous shrine, but with a lunch with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh thrown in). Sixteen years after India granted Pakistan most-favored-nation (MFN) trading status, Pakistan is on the verge of reciprocating. The peace process is resuming, and the two sides are talking to each other cordially at all levels. FULL POST
Editor's note: Peter Bergen, CNN's national security analyst, is a director at the New America Foundation. His book "Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden; From 9/11 to Abbottabad" will be published on May 1. Jennifer Rowland is a program associate at the New America Foundation, a Washington-based think tank which seeks innovative solutions across the ideological spectrum.
By Peter Bergen, CNN National Security Analyst, and Jennifer Rowland, Special to CNN
The past year has seen the number of CIA drone strikes in Pakistan plummet. In the first three months of 2012, there were 11, compared with 21 in the first three months of 2011 and a record 28 in the first quarter of 2010.
On Monday, Pakistan's parliament started to debate whether the United States should be made to stop CIA drone strikes altogether in the Pakistani border regions with Afghanistan and also whether the U.S. should apologize for NATO airstrikes that killed some two dozen Pakistani soldiers late last year.
Given the high level of hostility to the United States in Pakistan, the results of the parliamentary debate are pretty much a foregone conclusion. The parliament will almost certainly vote against the allowing the continuation of the drone strikes and will also demand an American apology for the deaths of its soldiers.
By Kiran Khalid, CNN
When Pakistani journalist Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy and American filmmaker Daniel Junge won the 2012 Oscar for the best documentary short at the Academy Awards, they didn’t just achieve a professional milestone, they made history. Within minutes of the monumental win (Pakistan’s first), the name of the film, “Saving Face”, about women who are victims of acid attacks, was trending on Twitter along with Obaid-Chinoy’s name. Pakistani media catapulted the 33 year-old filmmaker from reporter to rock star in the time it takes to tear open an envelope. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani was indicted by the Supreme Court today on the grounds that he had disobeyed its instructions to write to Swiss authorities in order to reopen corruption cases against President Asif Ali Zardari. Gilani pleaded not guilty and the hearing has been postponed until February 22. He maintains that Zardari enjoys constitutional immunity from prosecution while in office, and says that he himself would prefer to be dismissed rather than write to the Swiss authorities. If convicted, Gilani could face five years' disqualification from public office and six months' imprisonment. FULL POST
By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
At the start of 2012, here are the four countries we all need to watch closely: Italy, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea.
Let me explain:
Italy: Linchpin of the euro
The most important country to watch in 2012 is Italy. Italy needs to successfully institute reforms that give the markets confidence. It needs to do more than just deal with its budget deficit and debt - it needs to reignite growth. For the past ten years, the Italian economy has not grown at all.
If Italy manages to stimulate economic growth, it will send a very positive signal to the markets. Italy’s new Prime Minister Mario Monti is bravely and boldly advocating longer work hours and the reform of archaic laws that have made Italian businesses unproductive and uncompetitive.
If Monti succeeds, it will vindicate Germany’s strategy, which has been not to bail out the eurozone countries, but to instead pressure them to reform. Germany knows that the only solution to the crisis of Europe’s Southern economies is for them to become more competitive. FULL POST
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Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Relations between Pakistan and the United States reached a new low after the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers on November 26 in a NATO strike. As in the case of the Abbottabad operation that led to the killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, the incident has raised questions about the failure of Pakistan's military to resist attacks, and the pro-Washington orientation of the government. However, the immediate consequences of growing domestic anger seem more severe for President Asif Ali Zardari, his administration and U.S.-Pakistan ties than for the Pakistan Army.
To appease public opinion, Islamabad has announced a review of its cooperation with the United States, and boycotted this week's Bonn Conference on Afghanistan. However, this posturing is not without risks: troubled relations with Washington will undermine the stagnant Pakistani economy and fuel anxiety in Islamabad that it may be excluded from talks on Afghanistan's future. FULL POST
By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
This past Sunday on GPS, I interviewed a very different kind of guest. He's not a head of state, not an ambassador, not a diplomat. In fact, he has no official position whatsoever, but he functions at the intersection of power and politics between Pakistan and the United States.
Mansoor Ijaz is a Pakistani American businessman who has contacts and friends in both governments. He's come to prominence now because of a controversial op-ed he published recently in the Financial Times.
In it he claimed he was the messenger for a memo from Pakistan's civilian government to the Pentagon, asking Washington to clamp down on Pakistan's military. The U.S. says it ignored the memo. But since Ijaz outed the story, Memogate has led to a new low in relations between the two countries and to a Supreme Court investigation in Pakistan.
In my interview with him, I tried to figure out why this Pakistani American businessman published this article and what he really does know.
Here's a transcript of our conversation:
By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
You wouldn't have thought anti-Americanism in Pakistan could get any worse, but last week NATO attacked a Pakistani army post, killing 24 Pakistani soldiers. Even before this episode, for which NATO expressed deep regret, it would be difficult to find a country on the planet that was more anti-American than Pakistan. In a Pew survey this year, only 12% of Pakistanis expressed a favorable view of the United States. Populist rage and official duplicity have built up even though Washington has lavished Islamabad with aid totaling $20 billion over the last decade.
I think it's time to recognize that the America’s Pakistan policy is just not working. I write this as someone who has consistently supported engaging with the Pakistani government as the best of bad options. But the evidence that this engagement is working is thin - and gets thinner with every passing month. FULL POST
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By Fareed Zakaria
It is difficult to find a country on the planet that is more anti-American than Pakistan. In a Pew survey this year, only 12% of Pakistanis expressed a favorable view of the U.S. That number has probably dipped even lower in the wake of the NATO air attack on a Pakistani army post that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.
Pakistan’s leaders are only slightly better disposed since they continue to support militias in Afghanistan that wage war on Americans. Populist rage and official duplicity have built up even though over the past decade, Washington has lavished Pakistan’s government with praise and aid, the latter totaling $20 billion.
It is time to recognize that the U.S.’s Pakistan policy is just not working. I write this as someone who has consistently supported engaging with the Pakistani government as the best of bad options. But the evidence that this engagement is working is thin - and gets thinner with every passing month.
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