By Fareed Zakaria
I’ve been in London this week, and I couldn’t help but catch the Olympics bug. The Games are the ultimate meritocracy – or so it seems. But why do some countries win lots of medals? Do they have more talented people than others? We’ve spent some time looking at the data.
A few trends are clear.
Countries with large populations tend to do well. Logic suggests that the more people you have, the more likely you are to have a few excellent athletes. In the 2008 Beijing Games, China was the runaway leader with 51 gold medals. The United States came second, but it won the most medals overall with 110. The two countries are of course among the three most populous in the world.
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By Fareed Zakaria
I was struck last week to hear that the city of San Bernardino, California is declaring bankruptcy. It follows similar moves in the past month by Mammoth Lakes and Stockton, also in California. Before them it was Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Jefferson County, Alabama, Central Falls, Rhode Island – the list continues.
What in the world is going on? Companies go bankrupt all the time – but what happens when a city goes under?
In reality, the two aren’t that different. Companies file for what’s known as “Chapter 11” – a provision which enables them to renegotiate deals, to downsize, to fire people. But filing Chapter 11 also gives them the option of liquidating – or breaking up. That would be essentially impossible for a city – it also happens to be unconstitutional. So cities go for “Chapter 9,” which covers municipalities: that’s cities, but also towns, villages, taxing districts and utilities.
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By Fareed Zakaria
We tend to think of dictators as all-powerful leaders who act with naked cruelty and impunity. Think of Bashar al Assad in Syria. Or, for a celluloid reminder, think of Sacha Baron Cohen as Gen. Admiral Aladeen, a North African despot.
But the film "The Dictator" — and our imagination of dictators — is getting outdated. The new dictator is more evolved and more attuned to how people think.
A new book highlights that trend. It's called "The Dictator's Learning Curve" by William Dobson.
Dictators have gotten smart, Dobson writes, to keep pace with changes in technology. Old-school oppressors like Mao, Pol Pot or Idi Amin could keep their atrocities relatively secret. That's not possible today. If a dictator tried to orchestrate a mass killing and keep it secret, he'd likely fail. It would end up on YouTube. FULL POST
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By Fareed Zakaria
Last year, the world's energy watchdog published a report which asked an important question: "Are we entering a golden age of gas?"
So I was struck when I saw the International Energy Agency's 2012 report. Gone is the question mark.
Instead it says, simply: "Golden rules for a golden age of gas."
And the starting point of that golden age is right here in America.
It's becoming increasingly clear that the shale gas revolution is a game-changer not just for the energy industry, not just for the U.S. — but for geopolitics. FULL POST
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By Fareed Zakaria
A bold proposal recently caught my eye: One of Moscow's top academics says Russia should build a new capital city. This city would be far, far away from Moscow, 4,000 miles to be exact — in Vladivostok.
Why?
Well, the person who proposed the idea, Sergei Karaganov of Moscow's Higher School of Economics, wrote in a state-run newspaper that a capital in the far east would make Russia part of what he calls "the rising world" — closer to dynamic Asian economies and further away from an aging Europe.
The idea of moving a capital is not without precedent. FULL POST
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By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
While incumbent politicians around the world are struggling to hold on, one is thriving so much so that he's been called a king.
I'm talking about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who last week struck a deal to bring one of his main rivals, the Kadima party, into his government. Netanyahu's coalition now commands more than three-quarters of the Knesset — the largest parliamentary majority in Israeli history.
Netanyahu faces no plausible rival as prime minister. So he has an unusual, and perhaps unique, opportunity to use his new power to secure Israel's future.
When pushed on the Palestinian issue, Netanyahu has often cited the constraints of his coalition to explain why he had not taken bolder steps toward resolution. In the past, he seemed to like being restrained: He refused to form a national unity government in 1996 with Shimon Peres, and he refused again in 2009 with Tzipi Livni.
But now he has enough broad support — a big enough base with many moderates — that he could move toward a peace settlement without endangering his hold on power.
What should Netanyahu do next? Read Fareed’s Washington Post column to see what he thinks.
By Fareed Zakaria
The rise and fall of Bo Xilai is part of a much larger and potentially disruptive trend in China — the return of politics to the Chinese Communist Party.
We don't think of the Chinese Communist Party as a political organization these days. It is dominated by technocrats obsessed with economic and engineering challenges.
These men — and they are almost all men — are comfortable talking about detailed economic and technical data, laying out master plans for development. But they are not politicians, adept at handling large crowds or palace intrigue.
Read more about China and the big questions it faces in the near future at TIME.com
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Editor's Note: Tune in Sunday at 10a.m. or 1p.m. ET for Fareed Zakaria GPS on CNN.
By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
It has now been four years since the start of the global financial crisis. This was a crisis that showcased a breakdown of markets - too much leverage, too little concern about risks and too much debt. So you'd imagine that any political backlash would involve a move towards the left.
Well, that's not what happened.
Instead, we saw a shift towards the political right in much of the industrialized world. Here in America, the Tea Party was born, pulling conservatives further towards the right. Consider that in the 2008 election, Mitt Romney was considered the conservative challenger to John McCain. In this election he is the moderate, outflanked on the right by every other candidate.
This dynamic seems afoot in Europe as well. Britain's Conservatives returned to power after 13 years. Germany's Merkel and France's Sarkozy cemented their positions. Spain has a new conservative government.
What happened to the left? Why was there no great surge in left-wing populism? FULL POST
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By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
What caught my eye this week was a dispute between two members of a grand old European alliance. The alliance isn't NATO; it's not the
Arctic Council nor the Euro Zone, nor the EU. I'm talking about the annual Eurovision Song Contest.
It's camp; it's cheesy; but it's a huge hit across the pond. Every year, dozens of countries send their top performers to an American Idol-style music competition. More than a 100 million viewers tune in to vote for their favorites. The one rule: you can't vote for your own country.
And so the tradition has continued since the 1950s.
Abba won for "Waterloo" in 1974. Celine Dion made a splash in 1988 representing Switzerland. But somewhere along the way the contest became known less for big names, and more for kitsch: Sequined costumes, outlandish productions, the works.
Now, despite its name, Eurovision is not just a European competition. Algeria participates and so does Israel. This year's host is Azerbaijan. And that's why Eurovision is in the news this week. FULL POST
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By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
We've gotten used to the rise and rise of China. Every year for the last three decades, it has had growth at a staggering rates, almost ten percent per year. We've almost become used to the idea of a permanent China boom. Now, what if that were to change? What if China were to hit a big speed bump?
That's what a new World Bank report worries about this week. It's called "China 2030" and it warns that unless Beijing puts in place a number of structural reforms it will be doomed to what's called a "middle-income trap" of slow growth. That's what happens when the factors that lead a poor country to high growth - cheap labor, for example - disappear once it becomes a mid-tier economy. Then its growth rate slumps. To avoid that fate, the World Bank makes a series of recommendations - from letting the market play a role in setting interest rates to decreasing the role of the state in business.
Now, these are smart ideas. But they're not new; economists have been saying this for years. So what’s the fuss? FULL POST
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By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
The video above shows a strange cartoon from Egypt. It's of Uncle Sam looking sinister and mean, hunched over a door with a keyhole. The implication, I suppose, is that the U.S. is spying on Egyptians. Another cartoon shows him with a pistol and he's pointing it at an Egyptian man with a cannon. The caption in Arabic says "dignity". The point here is quite clear: Americans are robbing Egyptians of their dignity.
What in the world?
These cartoons were published recently in a state-run newspaper and they highlight a disturbing trend: Egypt's transitional government is trying to whip up anti-American fervor.
Its latest ploy is a high-publicity trial. Forty-three people, nearly half of them U.S. citizens, stand accused of illegally receiving foreign funds to promote democracy. The government claims they didn't have a license to do their work but in reality these people had filed their registration papers under the old regime of Hosni Mubarak. They were told their papers were in order.
It's a little rich for the Egyptian government - which receives $1.2 billion from the United States every year - to harass charities for getting funds from America. So what's going on?
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By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
Imagine a region of the world where stocks have had their best January in nearly 15 years; bank shares are up 20%; the rates at which governments borrow money has fallen sharply; investor sentiment is at its best in months.
You'd think I'm talking about Asia; maybe the BRIC nations. Nope.
The region is actually sclerotic, struggling Europe.
What in the world?
The story is actually quite simple - and was pointed out to me by Sebastian Mallaby of the Council on Foreign Relations. After months of endless hand-wringing, innumerable talks, and considerable pain, it seems the eurozone has actually been saved - quietly but effectively. FULL POST
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