Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Rebel forces and government troops clashed in Damascus yesterday, in what opposition sources described as the heaviest round of fighting in the capital since the start of the uprising. The authoritarian regime established in 1970 by Hafez al-Assad and inherited by his son Bashar in 2000 is highly likely to end in its current form, but not imminently: It could last well into 2013.
The regime seems likely to collapse following a prolonged conflict that exacerbates sectarian divisions. This could lead to a period of instability much worse than in Libya as groups of Sunni Arab rebels vie for power with each other and with militias dominated by the al-Assad family's Alawi sect, and possibly other minorities. Eventually, a weak government is likely to emerge, which is guided by a secular constitutional framework, but deeply divided internally along communal lines. FULL POST
Editor's note: Timothy Stanley is a historian at Oxford University and blogs for The Daily Telegraph. He is the author of the new book"The Crusader: The Life and Times of Pat Buchanan."
As a Brit living in America, I remember the Blair/Bush "special relationship" of the early 2000s with great fondness. It seemed that our two countries might remake the world. With Britain providing the vision and America the military muscle, a liberal axis would flex its way through the War on Terror. The U.K. hadn't had such a sense of purpose since the Second World War.
This week, Prime Minister David Cameron arrived in the United States with the express ambition of reviving what he and President Barack Obama now call "an essential relationship." So far the meeting has been cordial. Aside from agreeing to the need to draw down Western forces in Afghanistan, Cameron did his best to look interested in a basketball game in Ohio. He admitted afterward that he didn't have a clue what was going on and promised to explain cricket to Obama. Actually, cricket is very simple: Whoever doesn't fall asleep wins.
Nonetheless, there is an air of anxiety about the visit. While Britain is still broadly committed to the neoconservative vision of George Bush and Tony Blair, Obama is not. The tensions between the two countries have been exacerbated by a British suspicion that Obama simply doesn't like us, that his coolness betrays a mild contempt for us and our utopian visions. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Moscow blames the United States and NATO for failing to stem the flow of Afghan narcotics into Central Asia and Russia. Washington has been trying to strengthen anti-narcotics efforts in the region while not undermining counter-insurgency operations. However, Russia still considers this region its ‘sphere of influence’ and has blocked an attempt to expand U.S. law enforcement presence there. Hence, the pickle.
For the past decade, Afghanistan has manufactured and exported more heroin than any other country. The United Nations estimates that about 10% of Afghanistan's gross economic output derives from opium poppy cultivation. The country produced about 6,000 tonnes of opium in 2011, valued at 1.4 billion dollars. Moreover, Afghan growers’ gross income from opium poppy doubled between 2010 and 2011 (to $10,700 per hectare). FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
From the ‘Occupy’ phenomenon to last year’s ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings, young people have been at the forefront of recent social protest trends. There is nothing new in youth-led protest; but since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, youth unemployment levels have remained persistently high across the world. Especially in countries facing budget austerity, high youth unemployment levels could stoke significant social unrest.
In addition to stability questions, there’s the obvious economic impact: Young workers facing prolonged unemployment are at risk of years of low compensation once they eventually re-join the workforce. They are even at risk of permanent exclusion from job markets. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Since the 1980s, Republican dominance in the South has given the party a substantial advantage in presidential elections. Southern states had been transforming into a Republican-leaning region since the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
For years, conventional wisdom said that only a Democratic ticket that was Southern and more conservative than the national-level party could win the presidency. It was thought that a Democratic Party candidate had no chance of winning the presidency without holding down losses in the South, as the all-Southern ticket of Bill Clinton (Arkansas) and Al Gore (Tennessee) did in the 1990s.
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
As widely expected, Vladimir Putin secured a majority (63.7%) on preliminary results from yesterday’s presidential election. A first round win will provide a mandate to govern - but it has come at some cost to Putin’s standing and image. Putin may be able to ride out the large demonstrations expected this evening in Moscow, but will have a much harder time avoiding stagnation of his own power and authority.
The main question of contemporary Russian politics is whether Putin has the will and capacity to rebuild the so-called 'power vertical' that he established during his first two terms as president. The large network of cadres and officials who run this unique system of power are committed to it, but it becomes more difficult to manage without the momentum of a popular authoritarianism that previously marked it. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Russian media reported this week that two Chechens were arrested in Ukraine for allegedly preparing an assassination attempt against Vladimir Putin. The assassination was to occur after the Russian presidential election this coming weekend. Unquestionably, Chechen insurgents want to attack Putin. The notion of a plot is entirely plausible, even if the operation looked bound to fail. However, both Moscow and Kiev are using the news for political purposes.
Various arrests took place in early January and early February, but information about the alleged plot did not emerge until this week. There was probably little threat to Putin, partly reflecting the current limited capacity of the Chechen insurgency. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Brent oil today traded near $125.50 per barrel. Slightly down from Friday, this is still almost 15% above the already-high levels recorded a year ago. World average oil prices in euro and pound sterling terms have reached a new all-time high. With the global economy still fragile and OECD monetary policy extremely loose, the consequences for inflation and growth could tip the world back into recession by late 2012. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
The three traditional pillars of Washington's strategy for the Middle East have long been energy security, the security of Israel, and protecting ‘friendly leaders’. In the last decade, countering terrorism became another pillar. Pursuing all four of these pillars simultaneously has always been challenging. The last year of political upheavals in the region has made the balancing act even trickier.
Washington’s policymakers remain stuck in a reactive mode, struggling to understand what the future might hold forU.S.interests in the region. Whereas most Middle East governments had fairly positive relations with Washington a year ago, their successors keeping their distance. Untested populists are coming to power with different priorities from their predecessors. Previously friendly rulers are more wary ofU.S.ties, or are making things awkward for relations by cracking down on civic groups. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance. Also, be sure to visit the blog, Russian Military Reform.
In response to Tehran's announcement of advances in its civilian nuclear capabilities, the Russian Foreign Ministry on February 15 urged the international community to re-engage Iran in serious negotiations, with the aim of forestalling the development of a credible nuclear weapons program. While Russia is often portrayed as uncritically supportive of Iran, the bilateral relationship is more complicated than it appears.
Most Russian corporates have complied with international sanctions, which have made it difficult for multinationals to pursue opportunities in Iran. Large contracts have been repeatedly called off or postponed. Yet economic cooperation, especially in the civilian aviation, telecom and hydrocarbons sectors, remains significant.
While Iran used to be one of Russia's leading defense industry customers, this relationship has almost completely collapsed in the wake of President Dmitry Medvedev's September 2010 decision to ban sales of missile systems, armored vehicles, warplanes, helicopters and ships to Iran. This went beyond the U.N.-mandated sanctions. Since then, Russian military sales have been limited to equipment needed to modernize previously transferred anti-aircraft defense systems and electronic warfare and reconnaissance systems. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
President Bashar al-Assad’s regime is continuing its bombardment of the opposition stronghold of Homs amid a deepening rift within the international community on how to stem the violence. Following their vetoing of the United Nations resolution calling on al-Assad to step down, Russia and China favor a mediated solution, while the United States is considering the latest Arab League proposal for a joint Arab-U.N. peacekeeping force. The direction of external intervention could have a major influence on the course of the Syrian conflict as it heads towards civil war.
The military is attacking civilian areas and fighting army defectors with overwhelming mortar and rocket bombardments. The worst violence is taking place in the city of Homs, where heavy shelling over the past two weeks has led to a severe deterioration in living conditions. Villages along the border with Turkey and the area near the southern town of Dera'a have also come under heavy attack. FULL POST
Editor’s Note: This is an edited version of an article from the ‘Oxford Analytica Daily Brief’. Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm that draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its clients on their strategy and performance.
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani was indicted by the Supreme Court today on the grounds that he had disobeyed its instructions to write to Swiss authorities in order to reopen corruption cases against President Asif Ali Zardari. Gilani pleaded not guilty and the hearing has been postponed until February 22. He maintains that Zardari enjoys constitutional immunity from prosecution while in office, and says that he himself would prefer to be dismissed rather than write to the Swiss authorities. If convicted, Gilani could face five years' disqualification from public office and six months' imprisonment. FULL POST
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