South Africa in 2014: Mandela and elections
By John Campbell, Special to CNN
Editor’s note: John Campbell is the Ralph Bunch Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 to 2007. The views expressed are his own.
South Africa and the world have, since his death on December 5, been in the grip of a celebration of Nelson Mandela’s life and legacy. Yet the country will be moving quickly on, with the nitty gritty of national elections in March 2014. This process, and the formation of the resulting government, will dominate the first half of the year. Mandela was the public face of the governing African National Congress (ANC), which has always benefited from his halo effect. President Jacob Zuma no doubt hopes that will continue.
The ANC is the dominant element in a ruling coalition with the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). SACP and COSATU contest elections under the mantle of the ANC, not as separate political parties. Throughout his life, Mandela was an unstinting ANC party man. In the aftermath of his death, some mourning events have had the coloring of a party rally. The party and President Zuma are doing all they can to maintain an association between Mandela and the ANC. But Mandela’s death also highlights the gulf between his ideals and current South African reality. When he appeared on the screens during the memorial service, Zuma was booed.
The odds remain favorable that the ANC will coast to electoral victory on Mandela’s coattails, one more time. But the margin of victory is likely to shrink. If the coalition’s seats in parliament fall below sixty percent, and if the opposition is able to capture an additional provincial government, South African politics could undergo a sea change.
Up to now, South Africa’s free, fair, and credible elections have been essentially a racial census. The ANC-led coalition has received the overwhelming majority of black votes – blacks make up about 80 percent of the population. That has regularly ensured the coalition controls about two-thirds of the seats in parliament. The association of Nelson Mandela with the ANC is a driver of this support, with whites and “coloreds” traditionally voting for the primary opposition party, now the Democratic Alliance (DA). There have also been a handful of other small, mostly black, political parties that have disproportionate influence in parliament because of South Africa’s system of proportional representation. This paradigm may be breaking down, and Mandela’s death, depriving the ANC of its primary icon, could accelerate that process.
More from GPS: Mandela shaped conscience of the world
Meanwhile, the ANC is increasingly tarred with crony corruption, poor service delivery in the townships, and is blamed (perhaps unfairly) for slow economic growth, and an educational system that is failing to prepare the black majority for participation in the modern economy. Township riots over poor service delivery are increasing, and in August 2012, the police attacked strikers at the Marikana platinum mine in an eerie recall of police action during apartheid days. Many intellectuals see the party as straying from its democratic roots. Zuma is remembered for a sensational rape trial, multiple wives, and ongoing legal issues associated with corruption. Many South Africans perceive Zuma’s administration as disproportionately dominated by Zulus. There are also internal divisions within SACP and COSATU.
The DA is attempting to attract black support, especially the emerging urban middle class. There has been some speculation that its white party leader, Helen Zille, might step down soon in favor of a black candidate. The party already controls the provincial government of the Western Cape (Cape Town) and has its eyes set on Gauteng (Johannesburg). These are the two most dynamic and advanced parts of South Africa. Mamphela Ramphele has launched a new political party, AgangSA. She is the mother of the children of Steve Biko – the martyred icon of the Black Consciousness Movement – a medical doctor, a former vice chancellor of the University of Cape Town, and a businesswoman. It is focused on better governance and protection of the constitution, which probably has the world’s most sweeping protection of human rights.
For international observers and many South Africans, Zille and Ramphele are head and shoulders above Zuma in charisma and ability. The DA and AgangSA are similar in their policies; the difference is that the former is mostly white while the latter aims for black support. They could cooperate closely in parliament. Julius Malema, former ANC Youth League leader and the “bad boy” of South African politics is reportedly trying to organize a radical, left-wing party calling for expropriation without compensation of white-owned land and businesses. He could potentially draw township votes from the ANC.
But Zuma and the ANC remain formidable. The ANC lock on the townships may be difficult to break – the party is credited with a massive house-building campaign and the institution of relief payments to some 15 million South Africans (out of a population of about 50 million). COSATU is highly experienced in getting out the vote. And there is the Mandela factor, now of unpredictable significance. In addition, ANC one-party government since 1994 has resulted in myriad constituencies that ensure the party will have no shortage of campaign funds or media access.
So, in 2014, the ANC is likely to lose a small percentage of its electoral support, but won’t drop below sixty percent of parliamentary seats. However, if the DA gains seats and, above all, if it is able to capture the Gauteng provincial government, it will be the core of a powerful ANC opposition with the potential of blocking ANC government initiatives in parliament if joined by a few ANC dissidents. If AgangSA is able to capture perhaps five percent of the vote, it will have established itself as a credible black liberal political alternative to the ANC. As for Malema, there are few signs that his movement is resonating among the townships. That could change.
The likely 2014 outlook is that Zuma and the ANC will hang on to power in this first post-Mandela election. But the stage is being set for more dramatic changes in the elections of 2019.
@fareedzakaria on Twitter
It makes me sick the way both Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher hated Nelson Mandela with a passion although he successfully ended Apartheid in South Africa. Then again, it shouldn't surprise anyone that they felt the way they did. They were soul mates to the white rulers of South Africa as well as all the brutal right-wing dictatorships around the world, especially that brutal right-wing dictator in Chile, Augusto Pinochet!
Ronald Reagan was a great leader, an inspiring person, and a model of behaviour.
Margaret Thatcher was a great leader, an inspiring person, and a model of behaviour.
Proper respect for these world leaders does not diminish the accomplishments of Mandela.
Then again Joey, the same could be said of both Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini. First of all, Adolf Hitler and the Nazis brought Germany out of one of the biggest depression it ever had in the 1930's. Secondly, Benito Mussolini did the same in Italy during the 1920's plus he finally broke the power of the Mafia in southern Italy by 1930. These two were better leaders then than the current ones are now. All the current European leaders do is sit around taking orders from Washington D.C.!
Italia...ah! La gente piu' simpatica del mondo!
I usually drive there, but the trains are very nice. It's good to be on time.
Depressing prospects for South Africa, if Jacob Zuma remains in power. South Africans had a Nelson Mandela. Now everyone of them should rely on themselves to solve their own problems, instead of looking up to a leader.
Vietnam single women
september 27, 2008 at their 4:36 are recorded using a new relationship asiatische, wok cookware dating, fernrrstliche single men and women, associate with about vietnam, particular date vietnam moms, court vietnamese, going out with in vietnam, get married to vietnamese, Saigon darlings, Saigon marry, Saigon days, Saigon seeing each other, Saigon married, Saigon internet dating, Saigon penpal, Saigon personals, Saigon make an impression on, Saigon single, Saigon singles, Saigon holiday, Viet seeing, Viet marital life, Vietnam dates, Vietnam social, Vietnam gals, Vietnam companionship, Vietnam penpal, Vietnam personal ads, Vietnam appeal, Vietnam single wives, , Vietnamese relationships, Vietnamese daughters personals, Vietnamese nuptials, Vietnamese penpals, Vietnamese personals, Vietnamese impress, Vietnamese members, Vietnamese girls seeing
Saigon Darlings have optimum Vietnamese girls that can be your perfect match. Vietnamese little girls have been fascinating, affectionate but also reliable of course. while, Viet the ladies are generally industrious and thus inspiring. if you want meet those people beautiful wives because of union or really devotion, surely have come to the absolute right place. inside the Saigon Darlings, the Vietnamese young ladies are often challenging in searching for a rapport. get acquainted with any of these remarkable along with meet up with your own personal wants having a soulmate. waves over thousands of fabulous pix and review their personal user profiles if you use increase try to find showcase.
Vietnam internet dating at Saigon Darlings will help you to make contact with over a hundred beautiful Vietnamese single women. Once a member, prepare to introduce yourself to many Vietnamese single ladies. think your own personal rate of interest to those Viet girls and boys alike via providing themselves promotions, huge smiles potentially Vietnamese woman for marriage communicating with them that is being offered you will come to Saigon Darlings. and as a result valuable experience a personal Vietnam internet dating you pirate booty for all of your life. the prospect of dating the woman of your dreams involving Vietnam getting to know in Saigon Darlings remain good sized! alternatives unquestionably are several; you will not ever know that the "one" You are already hoping for these ages merely at Vietnam going on a date.
buy family law adult dating strategies for Men subject matter crafted
separated And internet dating tips for Men latamdate review To Get Back close toYou know you need to get back because of having to locate a after again, it just you almost seem something is usually holding you back. We heading for write around three powerful first particular date agreed with regard to men when had a splitting up. that the majority of looks like the status quo, But it falls short of to be because of this. When actually want achievable a long time to pass and conquer regardless of which very hard sentiments that your situation is, you might variety. This is the most preferred situation by a adolescence purchase their personal husbands and wives. then again, any individual heading came thriving, as many put on understand how to date because of their wifes. folks may take a bad case and it grow to be having a positive simply. with regard to those equally completed a divorce and you simply fearing because you are now single once more, You should research heeding styles advice. It similar to the main approach to dating is defined capital very challenging to men also along with although it those. in which with enough contentration after you are just a single male who is intending to meet and as a result tempt all women. by means of countless numbers of people existing through grounds, doing work on university, go to guides. this important will serve to help substance the harmfull influences along with the divorce process on the daily life you can control. generally, separated wives really worried relating to relationships when. the reason is when suddenly you become single still, You see that as a girl how many teenagers open to you are extremely few compaired to into dudes that you meet whilst you were more youthful. Disloyalty or mistrust of the girlfriend is one of the reasons of divorce proceeding. for the, you've got to pick your true self ascending combined with move on. come on connection useful information for reconciling into the joy of seeing right after divorce proceedings.